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Gen Zers are the new millennials—Americans in their late teens, 20s, and early 30s—who traditionally comprise the largest renter demographic in the country. However, stubbornly high housing costs and supply issues have made the once-seamless transition from renter to owner more complicated, pushing more young Americans to rent longer and making rents harder to afford. This has had a dramatic influence on where Gen Zs live and work.

According to a new report from RentCafe.com, Gen Z has dramatically increased its footprint in the U.S. rental population, from 700,000 five years ago to 4.4 million today. The Wall Street Journal quotes Zillow as saying that 25% of all U.S. renters and 47% of recent renters were Gen Zers, as of May 2025. 

However, they have stepped into a perilous housing market. A recent Redfin survey found that 67% of Gen Z respondents reported struggling to afford their rent or mortgage, compared with just over half of millennials and about 36% of baby boomers. Selling belongings, working side hustles, and moving in with their parents have been Gen Zers’ financial coping mechanisms.

Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin, said in a statement:

“The reality is that with housing costs still historically high, many young Americans are making compromises on location, size, or timing to get their foot in the homeownership door and start building equity. Gen Zers and millennials are making small gains in homeownership because they’re eager to buy, they’re making sacrifices, and because affordability has improved a bit at the margins—not because homes suddenly became affordable. We expect the slow progress to continue this year, with housing costs dipping slightly while wages rise.”

Where Gen Z Rents and What They Look For

Gen Z renters are located anywhere they can find good jobs and rising wages, according to the RentCafe.com report. Gen Zers are not monolithic, nor are the locations they choose to settle, from pricey coastal cities and tech hubs to less expensive, burgeoning, smaller Southern cities.

For those who can afford it, high-design, amenity-rich apartment buildings functioning as self-contained communities are high on the list, reported the Wall Street Journal. For those who can’t afford it, lower monthly rents and short commutes are high on the list of Gen Z priorities, according to the RentCafe.com report, which states that wage growth makes renting a more viable financial option for many Gen Zers, especially those with good jobs in California’s Silicon Valley, where 95% of Gen Zers who live there rent.

“Gen Z prefers renting in pricey markets like New York City and Los Angeles for the flexibility it offers, and many don’t mind smaller apartments if it means living close to everything,” Adina Dragos, RentCafe.com writer and research analyst, wrote in the report. “Social media adds to the appeal as the ‘fear of missing out’ (FOMO) makes living there feel like an important and shareable life experience.”

Mostly, however, Gen Zers want affordability, good schools, and outdoor activities, which is leading many to the South. Birmingham, Alabama, is ranked as the metro area with the fastest-growing population of younger American renters, increasing by 13 times in just five years. Affordability means that a third of the Gen Z population is able to own here.

According to RentCafe.com data, Huntsville attracts young professionals for similar reasons. Ranking second, however, is a Southern city that has been on most people’s radars for a while: Raleigh, North Carolina, a college town where nine out of 10 Gen Zers rent and which offers a vibrant, well-paying job market.

Remote work, coupled with affordability, appears to be a big draw for snowy Buffalo, New York’s high ranking on the list, while a lack of income tax and cultural attractions puts Nashville in the fourth slot.

The Play for Landlords

For landlords who don’t intend to buy pricy rental properties in San Jose, New York, or Los Angeles, less expensive markets with growing economies in the South and Midwest remain good places to invest, given their long-term renter demographics. A September survey by multifamily-focused property management company Entrata found that three-quarters of Gen Zers plan to continue renting long into the future, unwilling to be shackled to a mortgage.

“What the survey told us about Gen Z is that renting is a great way of life for them,” Entrata’s industry expert, Virginia Love, told Newsweek. “While homeownership is something they want at some point in life, they are sort of rewriting their timeline. They don’t feel like they need to follow the whole ‘college, marriage, baby, house, bigger house’ timeline; they can create whatever life they want.”

Employment challenges also keep younger Americans away from homeownership. 

“We are seeing less people in that 20-to-24 age group categorized as fully employed,” Jimmie Lenz, a financial economics professor at Duke University, told Newsweek. “There’s a lot more people that are employed by gig work and things like that, and those are jobs that tend to make it a little more difficult to afford mortgages, and in particular, the kind of traditional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.”

Playing It Safe: Investing in Areas Where Gen Z Renters May Want to Buy

It’s unreasonable to expect Gen Z renters to want to rent forever, even if that’s what they might say now. Parenthood, increased earnings, and a desire to step away from the risk of escalating rents mean that, at some point, homeownership might be on their wish list. Thus, investing in markets with both a high percentage of Gen Z renters and affordable housing is a sensible move.

According to Cotality, unsurprisingly, Gen Z mortgage loan applications (the data was collected in 2024) were heaviest in less expensive Midwest markets such as: 

  • Des Moines, Iowa (21%)
  • Omaha, Nebraska (21%)
  • Youngstown, Ohio (20%)
  • Dayton, Ohio (20%)
  • Grand Rapids, Michigan (20%)

Other Southern markets that made the top 10 rental markets for Gen Z also made the top mortgage application list, such as Birmingham, Alabama (19%), and Jackson, Mississippi (19%).

Cross-referencing both sets of data will give prospective landlords a good indication of stable future rental markets.

Final Thoughts

In Apartment List’s 2026 State of Renting Report, one thing becomes evident: Gen Z is chronically challenged financially, and that is affecting every major life decision, including where they live. However, 87% of those surveyed said buying a home remained a major life goal.

For investors, this means renting to Gen Z tenants who work and may one day want to live in a particular location makes sense, as does offering different options, such as holding the note on a property for a more passive rental experience. Offering the option to rent along with the option to buy, or simply tying the tenant to a long-term lease with predictable, affordable rental increases, provides both the landlord and tenant with peace of mind through a long-term solution.



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Does the idea of a never-ending stream of potential renters, many of them with guaranteed payments, lining up to apply for your vacant apartments sound appealing? Then you might want to consider renting to lower-income tenants.

Before you rush to judgment, it’s worth taking a broad look at the current rental market. America’s affordable rental crunch means that the biggest segment of the population that needs housing is the one that can least afford it. For landlords willing to serve this growing demographic, a golden opportunity awaits—as long as it is approached correctly.

A National Shortage That Isn’t Going Away

If real estate is about supply and demand, there is an almost bottomless demand at the lower financial end of the market. The United States is short about 7.2 million affordable rental homes for extremely low renters, defined as those at or below the poverty line or 30% of the area median income, according to the National Low Income Housing Coalition’s (NLIHC) “The Gap” report. That translates to only 35 affordable and available units for every 100 extremely low-income renter households nationwide.

The report shows that roughly 11 million households fall into this category, with some states having more than others. However, as Renee Willis, president and CEO of the NLIHC, said in the report, “The findings from ‘The Gap’ show that no state or major metropolitan area has an adequate supply of affordable and available homes for extremely low-income renters.” She added that only about one in four households that need assistance actually receive it.

Western and Sunbelt States Are the Most Affordable Housing-Challenged

According to a Newsweek map based on NLIHC data, Western and Sunbelt states such as Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and Texas rank among the most challenged. The report shows that seniors, those with low-wage jobs, and people with disabilities are often forced to compete with higher-income tenants for modest-priced rentals.

Focusing on Texas, a recent report from the Texas Tribune finds that Dallas—often celebrated for its burgeoning jobs and middle-class population—was short about 46,000 rental homes for families making 50% of the area’s median income as of 2023.

“We have a serious shortage of affordable rental units for very low-income households,” said Ashley Flores, the Dallas-based housing chief for nonprofit Child Poverty Action Lab, who coauthored its new report.

The Problems With Section 8

Although there is a deep need for affordable housing, there is a chronic shortage of tenants approved for Housing Choice Vouchers (Section 8). A New York Times article found that these vouchers are too scarce in major American cities where they are most needed. In Orlando, for example, there are roughly 200,000 rent-burdened households (those paying over 30% of their household income in housing costs) but only 7,401 available Section 8 vouchers.

More recently, the Trump administration proposed imposing a two-year time limit on rental assistance, which could affect as many as 1.4 million households, exempting the elderly and those with disabilities.

Many landlords choose to avoid Section 8 housing altogether because they feel it is too much of an administrative nightmare, requires excessive inspections, involves chasing tenants for their share of the rent, and soaring rents make it easier to get top dollar from regular tenants without the hassle of dealing with the government.

Each county has its own rules for affordable housing, and many have programs beyond Section 8 that can also offer qualified tenants steady, market-rate rents.

How Landlords Can Turn The Affordable Housing Shortage Into Cash Flow

A recent Business Insider story detailed the story of Ted and Jamie Gerber, who own 28 rental units across 15 commercial and residential properties in Florida. “We always rent at or below market rates,” said Ted Gerber. “Our tenants value the fact that they’re renting slightly below market rate, so they’re going to want to take care of the place. They’re getting a deal, and we’re still making money from it all.”

Another investor, Washington-based Dion McNeeley, interviewed for the same article, uses a similar strategy.

“Happy tenants don’t trash the place, and they don’t move, and tenant turnover is one of the most expensive things a landlord has to deal with,” McNeeley said. “I’m making tens of thousands of dollars more in the last few years than I would have if I raised the rent to the area average and then dealt with a bunch of turnover.”

A BiggerPockets article outlined some of the essentials for renting to low-income tenants:

  • Accept it for what it is: Homes in lower-income neighborhoods generally won’t appreciate at the same rates as other areas unless they are hit by a wave of gentrification.
  • Anticipate high potential cash flow, but be realistic: On paper, your cash flow can be extremely high, especially if you are not heavily leveraged, but management-wise, these types of properties can be quite labor-intensive.
  • Work with a responsive management company experienced in this type of rental: Unless you want your passive income plan to turn into a full-time job and have to deal with tenant calls, outsource management to a responsive management company well-versed in this type of rental.
  • Patience is key: Many landlords steer clear of low-income rentals because of the labor-intensive management and the types of tenants they attract. Clearly, beyond meticulous screening, having a thick skin and playing the long game are key. Some years, you might not generate much cash flow due to repairs and turnover, but eventually equity and rents will increase.

Final Thoughts

Stable tenants with stable jobs in stable neighborhoods are an ideal scenario for most landlords. However, due to the U.S. housing crisis, a much larger pool of rentals and tenants lies within the less-glamorous affordable rental segment. 

Having owned multiple low-income units in the past, I can attest that they can be challenging—which is putting it mildly. However, experience has been a great teacher, and these are some of the lessons I’ve learned.

You cannot be too leveraged. 

BRRRRing your way to success with low-income rentals is fraught with risk. Other investors I have known who have succeeded in low-income areas have bought rentals in auctions for cash, used their credit cards to fix them up, paid off the debt, and used the cash flow to service the repairs while keeping a full-time job. Eventually, rents increased, and the areas turned around. It was a conservative long-term strategy.

Screen meticulously.

Landlords are often so desperate to fill units that they will let anyone in, especially if they have a Section 8 voucher. Vouchers or not, comprehensive tenant screening is a must, which is why an experienced outside management company is important.

Older tenants or those with disabilities tend to be more stable. 

I once had a three-unit rental where, unbeknownst to me, all the tenants were drug dealers—even the single mom with a baby. One day, I found out that my building was completely vacant due to a DEA drug bust. Older folks usually know better than that.

Have a slush fund ready for repairs. 

Even with good screening, you will still encounter your fair share of repairs. This is why buying with cash or minimal leverage and having a slush fund and a reliable, affordable contractor are essential. 

One of the biggest dangers with low-income rentals is actually expecting to get the same cash flow in reality as you worked out on paper. Things often go wrong, and making your rental work means having enough cash to cover repairs and absorb vacancies.



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Fear you’ll never invest in real estate because you’ve been dealt a bad hand? Today’s guest had a struggling business, a $70,000 tax lien, a pending divorce, and was on the brink of bankruptcy, but through hard work and persistence, she was able to completely flip her circumstances. Now, she owns a real estate portfolio of cash-flowing rentals, despite starting in her 50s!

Welcome back to the Real Estate Rookie podcast! Beth Smart is the ultimate real estate success story. Despite juggling a recent divorce and a mountain of debt, all while taking care of two toddlers, she found a way to climb out of the financial hole she was in. And she didn’t slow down once she was back on her feet. From there, Beth figured out how to build real wealth with rental properties—dabbling in everything from short- and medium-term rentals to long-term rentals and even a few messy house flips!

In this episode, Beth talks about the bulletproof mindset that helped her rebuild her life, the exact moment she realized she was an actual real estate investor, and the strategies she used to snowball from one property into the next!

Ashley:
If you’re sitting there thinking you can’t get started in real estate because life’s too hard or you have this going on or you can’t do it, today’s story is with Beth and she’s going to provide you the motivation and inspiration to know that you can do it. At one point in time, Beth was going through divorce, had a struggling failing business, had $70,000 in IRS debt and on the verge of bankruptcy, but she made it out and she ended up getting her first real estate deal.

Tony:
And in today’s episode, Beth is giving us not only how she got out of that very precarious and difficult situation, but how she built a cashflowing real estate portfolio that includes flipping, long-term rentals, mid-term rentals and short-term rentals all in the span of a few years. So if you want the tactical guide along with the motivation, then this episode.

Ashley:
This is The Real Estate Rookie Podcast, and I’m Ashley Kehr.

Tony:
And I’m Tony J. Robinson. And with that, let’s give me a big, warm welcome to Beth Smart. Beth, thank you so much for joining us on the podcast today.

Beth:
Thank you. Glad to be here.

Ashley:
Beth, you were a new single mom. A business had just ended up in your name and you were dealing with a federal tax lien. So the margin for mistakes was basically zero. What was the first domino that fell? What happened that turned your life from manageable to I’m in survival mode and how quickly did things spiral for you?

Beth:
Well, so first I’m going to start by saying it’s so hard to talk about my past because it was such a painful time. And that was about 20 years ago. So that’s the timeline. So I’ve come a long way in that 20 years, so I’m happy about that. But at that time I had a new business. I had a nine-month-old and I had a two-year-old, and I was realizing that I had a horrible marriage. So it was just one thing after another. I had also had a bankruptcy, and that was kind of the first flag that told me, “This is not a good marriage,” because it just was all part of that bad marriage thing. So I had a bankruptcy that I kind of went through by myself. And then I was getting letters from the IRS saying, “You need to be audited.” And my husband at the time had said, “Just ignore that.
” Well, when you ignore the IRS, they do not like that. And so I did get a tax lien.

Tony:
That’s like one of the people that you can’t ignore is the federal government, I think when they asked for-

Beth:
Yeah. Well, I know that now, so thanks. Yeah. Well, and I don’t know.

Ashley:
But you trust someone and you trust them to know what to do.

Beth:
That’s right. And I was trusting him that he was going to give a good advice because when people talk with authority and I don’t know, for me it was like I’ve learned now not to just trust anybody because they act like they know what they’re doing because that’s not always the case. That’s actually probably rarely the case. So I’m not sure if I’m answering your question, Ashley, but there was a lot of dominoes that just kind of fell over all at once. So I had a new business that I really didn’t know anything about. I had started a med spa with my husband at the time and he was working for a laser company. So that’s how we got into that industry. And then with this new little baby and a two-year-old and this new business, and then I’m like, “Oh my God, I have a terrible marriage.
I need to get out of it. ” And oh, I have a bankruptcy and oh, I have a tax lane and everything has to start over. So it was like a clean slate and that’s what happened.

Ashley:
What was the moment like when you realized that you couldn’t live like that anymore, that you had to figure something out once you found out about all this stuff going on, what were kind of the first steps that you took to make some changes?

Beth:
So the last straw was, and I’m laughing because it was like, what a stupid last straw. So we had bought a house during that whole subprime lending thing. So I knew that that was going to be a horrible thing when that seven-year note came due or whatever. And I was cleaning our three-car garage because it was just a mess. And I’m a person of order and everything has a little place. And I had spent the whole day after working at the business and raising these two little kids by myself because he was traveling. I organized the garage because I thought this is going to be nice when he comes home from traveling. And he came home and trashed the garage. And I was up that night and I saw the garage and I burst into tears and I’m like, “I can’t do this anymore.” It was just everything else.
I mean, we were in debt, we just had nothing to our names. And my husband, he wasn’t home a lot because he was traveling for this business. And that was my last straw, was the dirty garage.

Tony:
Beth, I applaud you for having the courage to recognize that you weren’t happy in the situation and kind of stepping out of it, but then that also kind of puts you, like you said, in a very unique situation where now you’re newly single, two young kids. And I guess walk us through what happens with the business. You said you started this business together, but it seems like you became the person really running it after the fact. How did that come to be? How did the business fall into your lap?

Beth:
Well, we had signed a lease in a mall and we had to be open seven days a week, which was working when he had quit his job and we were supposed to be working together, but he was not working. And so when the divorce was processed and he moved out, I had to be at the office every day, even though we didn’t have any clients, even though there was no money coming in, but we had about $15,000 in monthly expenses that I’m like, “Somehow this has to … I have to pay these bills.” And somehow people would come in and spend money and buy my laser services when I needed them too. And it was the first time that I really realized I’m going to be okay that there, even though I don’t have support and I don’t have the people around me and I don’t have a rich uncle to help me, somehow miraculously people would just come in and buy things and I’m like, I’m going to … I started to notice that I got all the junk out of my life and I was cleaning up my messes and I don’t know, the universe just started to help me.
And so it was during that, it was 2007 and 2008, which was another weird period. And people were just, they would come in and spend, they’d give me their credit card and they would charge $7,000. And I needed, how much did I need that day? I needed $7,000. And they would just come in and charge. And I’m like, “This is weird.” And then I would sometimes never see them again. So I had to handle everything from the finding a tax accountant and paying bills because I knew that paying taxes was really important. I’d learned that and I just had to pay the bills. Then I asked the leasing company with the mall if I could just be open six days a week. And they said, “It’s actually, we never do this, but it’s in your lease that you don’t have to be open seven days a week.” So that helped a lot.
Yeah,

Tony:
That’s of course. And I mean, again, I think a lot to put on one person’s shoulders, but when everything was kind of chaotic, you mentioned the federal tax lien, you mentioned bankruptcy, a lot of the options were off the table for you to try and get stable. So what did you kind of tackle first, second, third to start putting the pieces back together and rebuild your own personal financial foundation?

Beth:
I went through all our expenses for the business and I had an employee who was a … Just she advocated for me. I don’t even remember who she was, but she came in and she was helping me run the business and she called up the Yellow Pages because we had a monthly charge of like, I don’t know, $5,000 or something for Yellow Pages. And this is when back in the day people actually advertised in the Yellow Pages, but that was going out because this was all pre-Google and all that. And so she got rid of that Google or that Yellow Page ad for me. So that helped a lot. So things like that. So it was just minimizing my expenses and then just praying every day, “Okay, I need to make $3,000 today. Okay, I need to make $100 a day. I need to find a cheaper place to live that’s just as safe, that is more convenient and closer to work.” So I’m juggling a million things and it was just like, “Oh, I’ll do that one today.
I’ll do that one today.” So that was my modus apperandi, is just deal with it.

Tony:
How long after the divorce and you becoming the sole owner of the business do you feel like it took for you to get to a point where you could kind of breathe again?

Beth:
Well, I think it probably took about two years of just one day at a time, one hour at a time and making it. And okay, I have a little cushion of money in the account. I have this bill paid off, this bill’s about to be paid off. So I think it took about two years. And I remember when I felt like I was safe and I was secure and I was going to make it, and I had a friend come into the store and she’s like, “I’m going away to Estes Park. I’m in Colorado.” She said, “I’m going to go away for the weekend. Do you want to get a cabin and bring the kids and go with us?” And I thought, I looked at the numbers and I’m like, “I can afford to do that. I can afford to pay someone to be in my store.
I can afford to go rent this little cabin and enjoy myself.” But it was two years after the drama. So what would that have been, 2010? Yeah.

Ashley:
Beth, during this time, did you create any rules for yourself that maybe you’re not going to base your decisions on fear anymore or that you’re not going to worry that your kids can’t depend on you? Was there anything that kind of went through your mind that you realized from this point and this experience that you weren’t going to let that control you anymore?

Beth:
I know during that period, my rule was I wasn’t going to fail. I wasn’t going to end up homeless. I wasn’t going to end up living in my car. I wasn’t going to lose my kids. I had a fear I was going to go to jail because of this tax lien. And my biggest, biggest fear was that I knew my ex- husband wouldn’t bring my kids to visit me. So when you’re operating in that level of fear, it’s like nothing is scarier. So the rules I created where I was never going to be in that situation again, but that also I needed to learn to trust my gut that if somebody comes in and tries to sell me something and I think it’s a stupid idea, then I’m going to learn how to say no, because I didn’t really know how to say no. I didn’t know how to advocate for myself.
And so I mean, it was like basic core rules that I was creating of don’t give away your soul.

Ashley:
Beth, how much was the tax lien for?

Beth:
Well, I think I owed $10,000, but because I had ignored him the interest, I think it was $70,000, which when you’re not making any money, it could be $70 million. It was just a lot of money.

Ashley:
I mean, that could be with someone’s whole year’s salary, $70,000. Yeah. And especially when it was only 10,000 knowing that it could have been taken care of, but yet all the penalties and interest. Wow.

Beth:
Yep.

Ashley:
Next, Beth is going to walk us through the exact pivot that made real estate feel possible and the boring insurance call that later protected a $60,000 outcome. That’s coming up right after a quick word from today’s show sponsors. Okay. Welcome back. So Beth had rules, but real estate investing starts when reality tests them. So Beth, walk us through the exact moment you’ve stopped insisting on a cool market and chose a market that actually worked for you. Okay.

Beth:
So we’re going to flash forward about seven years and my medical spa is doing really well. My divorce is completely over and I have met a great man named Patrick. I’m going to refer to Patrick a lot.

Tony:
I love that this story has a happy, not even the ending, but a happy middle part. Yeah,

Ashley:
Happy transition.

Beth:
There’s a good transition and that’s what changed everything. So I’ve gotten out of the mall, they let me out of my lease, which also never happens. And then I rented office space in an office building and I could be open whenever I felt like it. And I met this man online, whatever those things are called, online program. And we were destined for each other. It was just a great fit. And he was an executive chef. So I had manifested a cook into the family. Thank you because my … I don’t know. Anyway, that was a good thing. That was a good big sign. And he ended up after a couple of years quitting his job as a chef and he came to work for me. So we were working together and we were working and that’s when, and he had a little kid and I had little kids and they were … Well, now they were seven, eight and nine by then.
And we were just having fun. And I had a family and I’ve never really had a happy family. So we enjoyed a few years of having a happy family. One of the things that Patrick had was a little cabin in the mountains, and it was a little like a double wide mobile home that the previous owners had built a deck on. And it was just in a beautiful spot with Aspen Trees. And you could see all the Rocky Mountains and all the mountains, I mean, all around. And it was just such a peaceful retreat. We spent a lot of time there. We had a blast up there. And yeah, Ashley, I forgot your question. What was your question?

Ashley:
So go into how you had started in real estate.

Beth:
Oh, thank you. That’s a great question. Oh, yeah. How interesting that we’re on that this podcast and we’re going to talk about real estate. So we didn’t realize we were in real estate at that time, but we loved this. We loved the cabin and we thought other people should enjoy it. And this is when Airbnb was just starting. And I’m like, “You know what? We probably could make some money.” I think somebody would come to this … I mean, it was very rural. It was very rustic. It had running water, a bathroom and a shower and even a laundry room. And so we put it on Airbnb and we got somebody who spent a week up there and they loved it. And I realized we just owned this free and clear, but we didn’t even have insurance on it. And I thought if we’re going to keep renting on our Airbnb, we better get basic insurance on it in case something happens.
So we got a policy, we paid one premium, and I think it was like $30 a month. There was nothing. And we paid monthly. And like I said, we went there all the time. We were there at least every other weekend. And I always wanted to … I’m sorry I have to use my hands, but I always wanted to … It was just a mobile home, but I always wanted to pop the top so that you would have an even better view of all the mountains. And we went up one weekend. It was Halloween weekend and there had been an explosion and the top had popped. So I guess our introduction into true real estate began with the bang because insurance came up three times to inspect our claim and found that we hadn’t committed any crime to fraud. And we ended up getting … I think our claim was for $60,000.
So we got the full amount.

Ashley:
I want to make sure there’s no one in this, right? It happened to be vacant.

Beth:
Yeah. Yeah. Nobody was hurt, but one of the bedrooms, the bed had melted. So something horrible had happened, but I’d made one insurance premium or payment. And I mean, I was crying. We both were just in shock that it’s like somebody popped the top and melted the windows and broke everything. And anyway, yeah, it was so sad. It was awful.

Tony:
Beth, I know that the insurance situation was obviously terrible because obviously we never want that to happen to our properties, but it also becomes this kind of moment where you really do launch into real estate investing. And I want to talk about that, but before we do, you said, “Hey, we’re going to fast forward about seven years or so. ” And you go from this very difficult situation, post-divorce, newly single, businesses struggling, to happily married, family’s there, business is doing well. How does someone separate the difficulties of a moment from their identity? Because at times someone who’s going through something difficult can start to internalize that situation as part of who they are. And the reason that I asked this is because I was just talking to an investor last week and we were having a conversation. She was almost in tears because she had this property that wasn’t performing well.
And she was like, “I just feel like I’m a failure.” And I know that there are other people out there who have gone through similar situations, whether in their personal life, their business, whatever it may be, who start to internalize these difficult situations as part of who they are and they start to question their ability to be successful at anything. How did you not fall victim to that?

Beth:
Well, I don’t know that I didn’t fall victim for that. When you’re a self-made woman or a self-made human being, I mean, when you try something, whether you do it intentionally like, “I’m going to go try doing this, ” or you just have to fall into it and make it work. When it’s not working, you do have to take a look at yourself and say, “This is not working.” And there’s something that I’m not good at. And so some people don’t do that self-analysis and go, “Okay, what can I learn? I need to learn. I need to ask somebody. I need to read a book. I need to now, today. We didn’t do this back then. Listen to a podcast or whatever.” So I think people who fall victim to, “Oh, I’m a failure,” it’s because they’re not looking to learn and they’re not looking for what else?
There’s something I don’t know. I better figure it out. So at least that’s what I did. It’s like, this is not who I want to be. I want to be a different kind of person. I want to be a success. I want to be somebody who has achieved things. And I didn’t know how to do that. I didn’t have anybody showing me how to do that when I was growing up. So it’s like, all right, I’m going to listen to the people that, the science of getting rich, the science of personal achievement, the secret. I mean, there’s what you think about, you bring about, that’s something that I learned during my whole divorce is that book movie came out the secret. It’s all about the law of attraction. I didn’t know anything about that, but it’s true. What you think about, you do

Tony:
Bring about. Yeah. Well, Beth, I appreciate that because again, I know there are a lot of folks who are listening that just don’t have the confidence to move forward. And I feel like that’s what stops a lot of people more than the technical know- how, more than the … They’ve read all the books, listened to the podcast, watched YouTube videos, but they’re just missing the confidence piece. So I think it’s always important when we can talk to someone who’s gone through the kind of peaks and valleys of life and business and can show that Sick and With it has a positive impact. But going back to the insurance story, so you guys, obviously the terrible thing happens, but then you get this big check from your insurance company. What do you guys do with that? Do you rebuild the cabin? Do you turn it into another short-term rental?
What happens next?

Beth:
Well, we did love that location, but it was really far from anything. And our kids were getting older and we thought, “This is just too far from anything, so let’s find something else. Let’s take this money.” I think we paid off a car, but we still had a bunch of money. Plus we sold the land for, I think, another 40,000. So that was like 100,000. Today, I would do it so different, but back then we’re like, let’s go find another kind of retreat center. That’s how we looked at it was a retreat. And so we found a realtor and we’re just driving around, looking on the MLS and found this house in Cripple Creek, Colorado, which is this old gambling town and found this house one block from the casinos that it was in the middle of this little town. So of course in hindsight, it’s not at all what we were looking for, but it’s exactly what we needed.
It’s this 1895 Victorian. It was painted purple and blue and it’s just so cute. It just was so cute. And so it was in December and when we went to inspect it, the water wasn’t even on and we’re like, “It doesn’t matter. We’re going to buy it. ” We just knew in our hearts that this was our house. So we took that money from our explosion, our bang, and we bought this house and we went out and furnished it with period pieces. We’d walk into a thrift store and it’s like, that’s the perfect couch, which I don’t really recommend buying account furniture from thrift stores, but it was like, that’s the perfect furniture. So I think we got it furnished within a week and we spent New Year’s Eve there.

Ashley:
Did you have to do any repairs at all?

Beth:
No, no. Well, once the water got turned on, there was a leak and we had that fixed, but that was it. Otherwise, it was perfect. It had a detected garage with a studio above and we’re like, “We can rent that out. This’ll be fun. It’ll be so much … It’ll be lovely.” And so we were there New Year’s Eve, I remember, and we were staying there and I’m like, “Wait a minute, we have a mortgage on this now. Wait, this isn’t relaxing. We have a mortgage on it, so we’re going to have to do something about this. ” And so that’s what we did with that money. We bought really, truly, our first investment property.

Ashley:
And how much did you purchase it for?

Beth:
Oh gosh, I think it was maybe 200,000. It wasn’t very much, but this was probably eight years ago. So now it’s worth more, thank goodness. But we still have it actually.

Ashley:
Oh, really? That’s awesome.

Beth:
We rented that summer. We put it on short-term rental because I was such an Airbnb expert by then with our cabin and that one tenant that we had, but we put on … And it is a block from the casinos. So that was people would come up for the weekend and they loved it and it was convenient and it was adorable and all the things that we loved about it, other people loved about it. Well, then fall came and nobody really goes to Cripple Creek for the weekend because it’s cold and snowy and it’s not that much fun. So then, okay, we got to get a tenant in here. So we found a property manager and she got it rented. It probably took a couple of months, but so we had long-term rentals in there, long-term tenants there for, I don’t know, two years. And that’s when we started really learning about real estate.
And we’re like, if we converted the garage to another unit, then we could have a duplex. So we actually now have a duplex. We converted that to a duplex. So that’s a nice cash flowing property. Yeah.

Tony:
$200,000 for three units is pretty solid. So you guys take that money, you use that to launch into your first true real estate investment, but you don’t stop there, Beth. I know you go on to start experimenting in all different types of real estate investing. So what was the next deal after this? And my mind is blown when you said 18.95. I don’t even think I’ve been inside a house that was built before.

Ashley:
Come visit me, Tony, and a lot of them.

Beth:
Right? Yeah.

Tony:
Said 1895. What came next?

Beth:
Well, we didn’t really realize we were investors. We were just getting the mortgage paid. And then COVID hit and our business, we still had our medical spa and it got shut down. And my husband had always wanted to be a real estate agent because he loves looking at real estate. He doesn’t like helping people buy real estate or sell real estate. He just likes to look at real estate. And so during COVID, he got his real estate license and I’m like, all right, I’m going to be a part of his life and help him with that. And so I found this Facebook page and this woman was teaching how to be a real estate investor. And so every night, it was a fine night program. We listened to that and we learned all of the real estate techniques, the Burr method and flipping and house hacking and wholesaling.
And our minds were blown. We’re like, “We could totally do this. ” So that’s like giving a little kid a dollar back in the day and go into the candy store. So that’s how my husband was. He’s like, “Now we’re going to go buy real estate.” So we knew Denver, which is where we’re at, the Denver metro area was too expensive. And so Pat was looking in Pueblo, Colorado, which is two hours south of Denver. And I grew up in Colorado Springs, Colorado, which Pueblo, it was like the armpit of the world. It’s just the nastiest place in the world. And so when he’s like, “Look at all these properties without Pueblo.” I’m like, “We’re not buying En Pueblo. It’s disgusting there.” And he’s like, “No, no, really, really. Look at how cheap the properties were.” And they were. I mean, at that time Denver, the average price was $600,000 just off the MLS.
And in Pueblo, it was $150,000 for the same kind of cute little house. And I’m like, “Yeah, but it’s Pueblo. So no, gross.” Well, at that time also there was this TV show on Netflix called Undercover Billionaire and Grant Cordon got sent to Pueblo of all the places in the world and he’s like, “This is the greatest town in the world.” And I’m like, “I don’t even know who Grant Cordon is, but okay, if that guy says that it’s a good place, we should go check it out. ” So again, on a New Year’s Eve, we went, that was when we do everything apparently. So we went down to Pueblo and state New Year’s Eve and we looked around this town and Pueblo, Colorado is the cutest little town in the world. It has a city park and a zoo and old little Victorian homes.
And I mean, there’s some yucky places, but there’s a lot of history. There’s a big reservoir. So I’m like, all right, let’s go buy, let’s look down here. So we ended up finding … So we found out about how to get on wholesalers lists. And so we, I’ll make this very short, we found a property and we went and walked through it. And during that time, it was so chaotic. It was like you could walk into a house, and this is what one of the realtors said that we met at the flipping house or at the house that we were looking at. He’s like, “You could have dog poop on the walls and you’re going to get three offers above asking.” And I’m like, “What?” That doesn’t even make any sense, but it was true. So we toured a house, we put a bid in and we got it.
We got this house that we were going to flip. It was below market. I didn’t understand why they were using a wholesaler because it was a great house. They should have just put it on the MLS. But I know that’s one of those mysteries in real estate, right? It’s like, why did they do it that way? I don’t know. But anyway, it was to our advantage. So yeah.

Tony:
I just want to ask because obviously you’re still in Colorado, but it is a new market for you. And you mentioned it briefly, but you said we got it on the list of a wholesaler. There are a lot of rookie investors who don’t understand how to start building those connections with wholesalers who have the keys to unlock all of the deals that tend to make a little bit more sense. So what did you actually do to get in contact with these wholesalers in a market that you didn’t actually live in?

Beth:
I think probably at that time, my husband went on Craigslist and said, “I want to buy wholesale properties.” And there were just people there where they’re like, “Hey, want to buy this below cost.” Now you can Google buy wholesale properties and they’ll find all these companies and that’s what they do. And they go out and they door knock and they get these properties under contract for below cost. That’s a whole world that I’m not interested in. I would never want to be a wholesaler. It sounds on paper like it would be fun. You just go help somebody get out of their house they’re going to lose and you help them pay off their whatever, but I just didn’t want to do that. Yeah. Right. And so anyway, so we just bought another flip just recently and I’m like, why is this property being sold to a wholesaler?
They could just sell it anyway. I’m sorry, I’m rambling. I ramble.

Ashley:
Tony, didn’t you wholesale deal for a little while?

Tony:
Yeah, we did back in 2021, I think it was. And yeah, I mean, a lot of it was us getting cussed out by home sellers saying that we were the 18th person to call them today and how did you beep this and you should beep this and all these other kind of crazy things, but we dig it if you do, which is I guess the price you have to pay.

Ashley:
Now, when you saw your $65,000 profit, what did you do next and why did you choose to roll it into two more properties instead of just taking the win and pocketing it?

Beth:
So that was how much we made from our very first flip. It took us about, I think a month, maybe six weeks, and we fixed everything, which now we don’t do that. But even then we turned around and we sold it in two days. We actually only got one offer.

Ashley:
Two days. Wow.

Beth:
Yeah. And we made a profit of, if I did the numbers right, which who knows if I did, but we made about $65,000. So what we found is that it was so much fun. And real estate in general is just fun. And it was fun taking this kind of house that just needed some love and making it, improving it and giving more life to it and then turning around and finding somebody who’s like, “This is my forever house. I love it. I want to buy Buy it. And then we made money at it. I mean, it was fun. So we took that $65,000 and instead of spending it on something that we didn’t want, we’re like, let’s keep going and let’s stay in Pueblo. And so my husband, who loves looking at real estate, found a house that was, it had it for sale sign in the front, but it was not on the MLS.
And he called up the agent and he’s like, “Yeah, that’s for sale.” Well, it’s not on the MLS. Oh, well, I don’t know. So we looked at that and the price was right. It was like $160, $70,000. It didn’t need any work. And it needed a little cleaning and some paint, but it had hardwood floors. The bathroom was fine. It had clawfoot tub in it. And we had a contractor who had helped us on our flip. And he’s like, “You should do this as a short-term rental and we’ll manage it for you. ” And so we’re like, “Okay, because it’s two hours away and we can’t do a short-term rental, but we know how much money those can make. So let’s turn this into a short-term rental.” So we bought that house in June, middle of June, and I immediately got it set up on Airbnb and we had it booked for the 4th of July.
So it took us two weeks to turn that around. And we had it booked for, I think, four straight months and made, I mean, so much money. It just was fun. It was fun because people loved it. And then I love helping people, but I also love making money. And I learned from my med spa, those two things are not mutually exclusive. You can have fun, you can help people, and you can do what you’re supposed to do. So that’s what we were doing. The other thing that we did with that $65,000 profit is actually, we bought two properties down in Pueblo. One, we turned into a short-term rental. We actually closed on both those properties on the same day, and we were going to just flip that other property, but we ended up losing our contractor because he got really burned out because we were moving at the speed of light, and he was managing these properties and having to turn them over every couple of days.
And then the one kind of challenge about Pueblo, Colorado is August is super hot. And so that’s by now we’re into August and he got burned out and he quit managing the short-term rental and he quit finishing our flip.

Tony:
I just want to say that’s the biggest fear for every real estate investor is that you build a relationship with someone and then for whatever reason, they don’t follow through. They kind of stop mid-job because now you as the investor are left to pick up the pieces. And I want to talk about that, but before we finish off the serve at the contractor, we’re going to take a quick break to your road from today’s show sponsors and we’ll come back and finish that story. All right, welcome back. We are here with Beth and she just broke the news that her contractor kind of burned out in the middle of not one, but multiple jobs. So I guess Beth, maybe describe the moment that the relationship kind of broke, I guess, what went wrong, what did it put at risk and what did you do in those first 24 to 48 hours to try and keep things moving along?

Beth:
I remember where Pat and I were both standing, we were supposed to go to dinner with our contractor and his wife, and we had made plans to go to this little Mexican restaurant and they called and said, “Oh, we can’t go. We have to go do something else.” And we knew what that meant. We knew that they were quitting because of other things that had happened. And we both just looked at each other and said, “What just happened and what does this mean? Because they’re doing this and they’re doing this and they’re doing this. And oh my God, what are we going to do? ” And so sure enough, they’re like, “We’re not doing this anymore and give us our money that you owe us and here’s the keys and good luck.” So we went on Craigslist, my husband’s really good at that and he found another person to finish this house, finish the house that we were flipping.
And we shut down, I think we probably had a couple more short-term rental appointments or bookings that we finished. And I found a cleaning lady who would go in and she moved those around for a couple months, but it was just too much work. So I’m like, let’s turn that house into a medium-term rental. And to answer your question, Tony, sorry, you have to deal with it and it’s like all hands on deck and what are we going to do? And you have to focus on solving the problems. So okay, we got to finish the house. All right, find somebody to finish the house. We got to find somebody to clean the house because we can’t do it and turn it over because we have bookings. You just have to find somebody. And when you have that laser focus on finding what it is you need, because it’s not like it’s life and death, but it kind of is because it’s your business.
It’s like the universe really does conspire to help you and you find those people show up. And so the contractor that we found to finish the flip, he did a really good job, but he moved at the speed of a sloth. He was so slow. So it should have taken about a month. It took him like three months. And so it was done in November. Well, then it’s too late to try to sell it. It’s in Colorado at least. You just can’t sell anything in that fourth quarter. So we ended up turning that property. We put that on the market to … No, what did we do? We turned that into a long-term rental, which wasn’t the goal. That wasn’t what we were going to do with that money. I wanted that cash so we could buy another flip, but we turned it into a long-term rental.
We actually still have that property and we’re on just our second tenant in, what is it, four years. So that turned out, it turned out okay. The house that we had is a short-term rental, we turned that into a midterm rental, and that went really well for a couple of years also. And that was nice money and pretty easy money. And that cleaning lady that I had found, she would go in after the month or however long that contract was, she would go in and turn that over. And then we just had a couple of bad experiences and I’m like, “Let’s just turn this into a long-term rental.” So we still have that property also, and that’s been a very nice investment for us. It’s still booked. So yeah.

Ashley:
Beth, after having to learn how to pivot and change strategies, what are maybe some things you implement now when you’re managing a project or a rental that you wish you would’ve done before?

Beth:
So the way we funded a lot of these projects was through my medical spa. So we don’t have that medical spa anymore. I sold that and now my husband and I both have W2 jobs. Why? I don’t know, but we do. And so what I wish I could- for lending, but you get loans. Yeah, exactly. And it is, it’s nice to have insurance and whatever. But I wish that I had been wiser with the budget and the money and really everything I’ve learned on BiggerPockets about how to analyze a deal. We would analyze a deal by going in and going, “What a cute house. Oh, we could paint it this way. And then if we do this. ” And we didn’t really run numbers like we’ve learned how to do now. And we’ve had to learn how to run the numbers because we just don’t have that.
I mean, my med spa was a cash cow. So if I needed money, we’d make some. That’s one thing I learned is like, “Oh, we need some money? Well, let’s make some. ” And that’s what I’m loving about real estate and why we decided to get back into flipping because I like making some money and flipping is a really fun way to make some money and I get to help people, I get to be creative. My husband gets to find things. He loves to find things and then we have a nice little payoff. So what I would do different is look at the budget and be a little bit smarter, which now that’s what I’m learning how to do.

Tony:
Beth, one follow-up question on the transition back to W2, because I think for a lot of folks that are listening, the goal is to get to, “Hey, I’ve got my own thing going and that’s kind of sustaining me, ” but you’ve ventured back into the stability that comes along with that. What was the decision-making process that you followed to say, “Hey, we’re going to put the MedSpa up for sale versus continuing to run that alongside the flipping and the other rentals that you own.”

Beth:
When we were shut down for COVID and we got to have a life and try other things, when then we had to go back to work for a couple of years, we realized how burned out we were. And it was one of those decisions that we kind of just made within a couple of days. It’s like, let’s put the business up for sale. And so we found a business broker and they had said, “Well, we’re going to take about nine months to sell your business.” And we’re like, “All right, that’s perfect because then we can make some more money and save some money and maybe even pay off one of these properties.” It sold in an hour. So we closed within a month. So it went from nine months of, I have a lot to do and nine months to, I have a lot to do in four weeks.
And so it was a miracle and we got out of there and yeah. So then we realized, okay, we still don’t have quite enough money and now we’re kind of bored. And that really was. We were kind of bored because we couldn’t do too much because we didn’t have that money that we were making. So we’re like, let’s go get jobs. So I started working for the post office. I thought that would be a fun job. I can get paid to exercise by walking. I can be outside and I could be by myself. I just needed my own, I needed to be away from having to wheel and deal and make sales like I had to do with the med spa. And then six months later, my husband started with the post office too. So we’re both mail carriers. If you work for the post office for five years when you started our age, we’re both in our 60s.
If we work five years, we get a pension. It’s not a big pension, but it’s cashflow for the rest of my life is how I look at it. And we also get to keep all our insurance. So I think that’s a win-win-win. So yeah, we have a job that’s going to give us cashflow.

Ashley:
I mean, that feels like a good retirement strategy.

Tony:
I love the concept of how you described it. If I am by myself, I don’t have to talk to anybody throughout there.

Beth:
Well, honestly, Tony, I’d never listened to podcasts. I’d never, nothing until I got this job because now I am by myself all day. I’ve got my headset on and that’s when I really discovered was BiggerPockets. I’ve been with the post office three years now, so I get paid to learn and I get paid to exercise. So yeah.

Ashley:
Well, Beth, thank you so much for joining us today. I really enjoyed this conversation. I still think it’s incredible that you made the $65,000 off one flip in a short period of time, and that was almost the same amount as that IRS debt you had. And I can imagine that took way longer than the flip did to actually pay that off. But congratulations on all your success. And thank you so much for sharing your journey and also the lessons you learned and what you would do differently too. So Beth, where can people reach out to you and find out more information?

Beth:
I’m not on social media, so my email is [email protected]. Who am I? [email protected].

Ashley:
Well, Bob, thank you so much. We really enjoyed having you on today.

Beth:
Thank you very much.

Ashley:
I’m Ashley, it’s Tony, and we’ll see you guys on the next episode of Real Estate to Ricky.

 

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Dave:
We’ve talked a lot on the show about corrections, slowdowns, and what a softer market means for investors. Today’s conversation is a little different. My guest, Melody Wright, has been widely quoted as saying we could be headed for a crash worse than 2008. I was pretty shocked, to be honest, by the claims that I heard from Melody, and I invited her on the show for a debate. But as you’ll hear in our conversation, her opinions about housing may not have been so accurately reported by the mainstream media. So what does she actually believe and what is the real thesis behind her view of the housing market?
Welcome to On the Market. I’m Dave Meyer, and I’m joined by Melody to clear the air. Lay out her outlook in her own words and walk through the mechanics of what she thinks happens next. We’ll dig into how the labor market and inventory are shaping housing across the country. What evidence points towards a larger scale correction? And we’ll dig into some risks in the private credit market. And of course, we’ll talk about what investors should be watching for as we head through the rest of 2026. This is On The Market. Let’s get into it. Melody, welcome to On the Market. Thanks for being here.

Melody:
Thank you so much for having me. It’s my pleasure.

Dave:
Maybe you could start by just introducing yourself and letting us know a little bit about how you’re involved in the housing market.

Melody:
Sure. Yeah. So I fell into mortgage in 2006 by accident because that’s how everybody gets into mortgage. You don’t grow up and say, “Oh, I want to work for an industry that’s called Death Pledge.” So basically, I started at one of the top subprime lenders in September of 2006, having no idea what I was getting myself into. And very quickly, because we were part of a big transaction with a private equity firm, they were seeing the signs and they wanted a purchase price adjustment. So we basically led the write down. So I was at a top five originator and servicer and rode throughout the great financial crisis, just which was just a total, total dumpster fire. And we had started out as a subprime lender, but really our biggest book was agency. So it was more prime than subprime, but that little problem caused more and more problems as time went on.
And so I wrote all that through after that. My company finally went into bankruptcy in 2012.

Dave:
Oh,

Melody:
Wow. It took us that long and it was- I’m

Dave:
Sorry to hear that.

Melody:
Oh, no. I mean, it had to happen. But after that, I went to FinTech companies trying to help implement some of the Dodd-Frank as well as help the industry get technology because believe it or not, if you walked into Wells Fargo today or any of the large servicers, you’ll see black and blue screens, black and green screens.

Dave:
I do believe that.

Melody:
Yeah. I mean, it’s crazy and
Nobody remembers the code. And so that kept me very, very busy. But when I was at one of those FinTech companies, my CEO said, “You’ve got to tell me when rates are going to rise.” Because everything was just pumping a hundred miles per hour, but we all knew it was going to slow down at some point. And so I kind of jumped into macro. And then from there, I started realizing a lot of people weren’t putting the whole story together. So I wrote an article in January of 23 in Housing Wire, which I’m sure this is something we’ll talk about, but debunking the inventory myth. And then I went out on the road. I went on the road, drove all across the country looking at these markets, and I’m looking at them from a macro and micro perspective. So I track 85 markets. I look at inventory every week in those markets.
And then I started my Substack in the spring of 2023. And that’s how I got here. That’s short version anyway.

Dave:
Well, I’m really eager to hear about your takes on the housing market. I think we’re probably going to disagree on some things, but I am looking forward to hearing your opinions about these things. So maybe you could just start by telling us big picture. What do you see nationally in the housing market right now and where do you think we’re heading over the next few years?

Melody:
Yeah. So right now, we’re entering year four of frozen tundra. I mean,
It’s actually mind-boggling when you think about it that we could have the lowest sales since 1995 yet have increased population by 20% since then. I don’t know that anybody thought we could have this low of transactions for this long. And so when you have your affordability problem, people can’t afford mortgages. FHA was the way that a lot of people were getting in in 21, 22, 23 with those low down payments. And half the time they were using some down payment assistance program from the American Rescue Plan money. And so you got a lot of people in that way, but that’s kind of run out, especially with student loans now reporting to credit. You’re seeing a much tighter credit, not necessarily that the lenders are tightening. It’s just, “Oh, you had a 750 yesterday. Today, you have a 550. That’s just not going to work out, ” which is why the Fed reported some of the highest, well, the highest mortgage refinance rejection rate.
Their last SE report over 43%, which that’s a little insane. Wild. Yeah. And it’s over 20% for purchases. So you have the affordability problem, and then you also have the boomers who own most of the real estate, and they also spend a lot of time on mainstream media, and they still believe that their house, despite those repairs they never did, and maybe it’s their second, third house, is going to sell for even more than theirs estimate. And so I think what you’re seeing right now with the cancellations is, yes, some of it’s credit, but I think a lot of it’s like you get to that final closing table, you have the property inspection, you’re like, “No.” And the seller’s just refusing to come down. And so we call it rage de- listing, which is what we’ve seen across all these markets is people just de- listed like crazy, which is why what I just saw in February was kind of wild.
You probably know inventory bottoms in February typically. Well, what we saw after the crypto route and after the wobbliness in the stock market, listings are flying onto market and way more than what you would typically see seasonally. And I’m seeing some data providers not talk about this. And so I don’t know if that’s the timing of their data, but Realtor did come out with an article about a week ago just saying they’d seen a boom in listings, but I’ve seen it in my 85 markets.

Dave:
And how are you tracking those new listings? Because I did see that realtor article. I think they said it was like new listings are up 8% year over year, something like that. I think Redfin has it about flat, but are you seeing a bigger increase than that?

Melody:
So year over year, that’s about what I saw, like 8%. Yeah. Which it’s not even that year over year number, it’s how quickly they came to market in a matter of two weeks. That was what’s so shocking to me. So someone like … I mean, California was up 15% month over month. And so it was like everybody was pulling, pulling listings. And then somewhere someone got a memo now in California that was probably related to some layoffs because you’re seeing a lot of that in San Jose and they had some eBay, Western digital layoffs. So I track all listings. A lot of people exclude pending. I don’t. And so I look at it all because new, I saw back in the day when Altos only focused on new listings, they missed what was happening. And so they were missing the buildup. And so I just focus on everything.

Dave:
Okay. And so when you look at this inventory data that you’re collecting and looking at and some of the broader trends, it sounds like you think we’re heading for a full blown crash. Is that right?

Melody:
So that’s what everybody focuses on. I mean, but the timing of that would take a long time because what I’m really focused on the more long-term picture and our current demographics. And we have a problem that a lot of the inventory is under-reported. This is what I found when I went on the road and I was trying to match permits to what I was seeing in front of my face. But in places like Texas, you don’t have to file a permit in an unincorporated area, and a lot of these areas were not incorporated. And so I think probably if you were just looking at Zonda, for instance, or new home source, we’re probably missing 25% of the new

Dave:
Inventory. Interesting.

Melody:
And so here’s the thing too, we’re in the data dungeon. We haven’t had really new home sales for months. And when they publish the data, what they’re doing is putting placeholders in and then revising it. So we’re really lagged in what we’re seeing there. But before the data suspension, they hit below 400,000 on their median sales price, which is nuts. It just is keeping the trend of that new home price being lower than the existing home price. And so I know everybody focuses on, yes, do I see a crash? I see a correction. I do not see a crash. And I fully believe that until we address affordability, meaning wages have to rise, that historical relationship that really started getting messed up back in the ’90s is going to go back because of the demographic situation and the silver tsunami. And the other thing I think many people miss is how much speculation occurred, how much speculation occurred outside of the MLS.
I mean, I think that’s also one of our problems right now is that I think that the private market is a lot bigger. I go to a conference in Nashville for private note buyers, and that is much bigger than I think anybody realizes. The mortgage industry is just starting to see it. The pace is Morby sub twos are starting to see that. And so yeah, I think we’re missing a lot of information, but in the short term, this year we’ve got the FHA guardrails went on in October, and that is why we’re seeing serious delinquency rise. They have a little bit more time with a forbearance, short term forbearance. We could potentially skate through this whole year again. I mean, it’s just we need some sort of sentiment trigger because a lot of the boomers are not in a hurry. But now what I’m seeing in my market, the number of deceased borrowers is increasing at alarming rates, especially in the Northeast, because I use a tool called property radar.
And you look at such low owner occupancy in these markets, especially these coastal markets, and who owns those? And they won’t be owning them forever. And Charles Schwab did a study and said 70% of inherited properties get sold. And so I just think the industry’s not taking all of this into consideration.

Dave:
We got to take a quick break, everyone, but we’ll have more with Melody Wright right after this. Welcome back to On The Market. Let’s get back to our conversation with Melody Wright. So you think prices are going to come down, but over time, it’s not like an event that’s going to happen this year, but I’ve seen some, you’ve, I think, said in the past that you think prices could come down as much as 50% or be equal to the median income in the US. Do you still think that’s true?

Melody:
I didn’t say equal to the media income.

Dave:
I saw that in Newsweek, but I don’t want to misquote you.

Melody:
Yeah, Newsweek misquoted me. They misquoted me

Dave:
Twice.

Melody:
I had to send a correction. Sorry. It was very frustrating because then unusual Wales tweets it out and eight million people say it. So no, what I said was that we could see in some markets corrections as much as 50% that could take some

Dave:
Time

Melody:
To do not in a year. That was for their headline. And I also said, when I said match, I meant that historical relationship. And then some dude put up on Instagram that it was going to equal, but I didn’t say any of those things if you watched the original interview.

Dave:
Okay. No, no. Yeah. Let’s clear the air there and say what you think. So you’re basically saying you think we need to get back towards a historical relationship between income and home prices, not that they need to match one to one. That’s right. I see. Okay. Yeah, I’ve heard that argument too. I hope you’re right about that. I would love … People measure it very differently, the income to price ratio. Some people say it’s seven, some people say it’s five, but we are definitely at an elevated rate. The one I was looking at yesterday shows us at about seven, seven times your income for the average home price. And the historical relationship is more somewhere around five. So we are definitely in a distorted era. But if you look at other countries, if you look at Canada or New Zealand or Australia, they just keep going up and up.
And I hope that does not happen, but I am with you on the affordability front. I think affordability needs to come down. Yeah, I guess we are more in agreement than I was anticipating because I think it’s just going to take some time. I think personally, I think prices might stay somewhat stagnant for a very long time. I do think they’re coming down this year, but when I say somewhat stagnant, I mean single digit declines, not double digit declines while hopefully wages rise and rates start to come down and that gets us back to affordability, but I don’t yet see the evidence that we’re going to see this race to the bottom. So I’m curious, you had mentioned we need a sentiment trigger or something. And I think we see that in a lot of the economy, right? It seems like stock market’s kind of on edge and you just don’t know what might tip it over.
So I’m curious if you have any thoughts on what might bring about the start of this sort of decline that you’re anticipating.

Melody:
I think that it’s starting when Zillow put out that article and said 53% of homes have had price cuts and that average is 9%. That was, I think, mid-summer, late summer. So I think it’s been building and building and building, but a credit crisis is what I actually think. But I’m not the kind of person that says, I’m not here because I have 2008 PTSD, which I think some influencers like to say about me. That’s not why I’m here. I actually believe this couldn’t happen again because I spent many years of my life trying to make sure it didn’t, but our demographics are the big issue. So I honestly think, like I just kind of said to you, is we might skate through this year again, I mean,

Dave:
With

Melody:
Probably a modest decline, which may be what you’re calling for, but I think this credit crisis that we’re seeing brewing in private credit, what Chase just did

Dave:
Is

Melody:
Not … And it’s so much bigger than what people realized yet because they restricting access to further borrowing. And so what will happen a lot of times when you have one of these big warehouse lines, you have that collateral pledge at any moment they can turn around and say to you, we’re writing this down. So let’s say that you are at what you’re supposed to pledge today at 100 and you’ve got fully levered. When they write that down, you now have to empty up more collateral at the same time to do that, you have to mark those assets down. And so this process, it’s a quiet little article. I know it may seem like it’s loud, but actually they aren’t explaining the degree that this is problematic because once you cut off funding, that’s what happened last time. We had a collateral shortage, funding was cut off and so the confidence game was up and that created liquidity shortage across the system.
Can

Dave:
You explain to everyone what this is, just like private credit and how it is related in real estate? Because you hear about it in private equity and funding mid-size companies and some of these hedge funds and private equity companies sort of filling the gap that Dodd-Frank kind of took away from the banks, but how is it related to real estate?

Melody:
So it’s important to kind of understand what happened with Basel III in game announced and the banks really pull back from lending because they were risk weighting certain assets a lot higher than others. And so you can actually see sort of the transition, and this is another reason why we don’t have all the data, the transition for the banks to the non-banks, the non-banks, be it your Rocket, your UDub, Mr. Cooper, Freedom, they are doing all of the origination. These are private non-banks. They don’t have deposits. I mean, so basically what happens when the banks pulled back, then you had these private actors get in to do the lending. Now, the banks are exposed just like because who is lending to these private credit companies? But so what you have was a whole bunch of people- Right.

Dave:
Sorry, I just want to clarify what you’re saying is- Oh, go ahead. Banks are not either not allowed to or for strategic reasons aren’t making these loans, but they invest in the private companies that make these loans. I just want to make that clear because it is all super interconnected.

Melody:
Yeah. They’re lending to them. And it is so confusing, right? But what these private credit folks did is they, again, thought they were the smartest guys in the room. They don’t understand credit and they thought they could just go off the credit score for a lot of this origination. So what do they do? There’s all kinds of best egg is a Barclays company out there. There’s all kinds of companies out there giving short-term loans or giving secure personal loans that are being backed by these business development companies is what they’re called our BDCs. And that’s considered private credit because they’re not a bank, they’re not federally insured and they don’t take deposits, which is what you need when you get into times of stress because of what Jamie Diamond just did. Now if they don’t have cash, they’re going to be in a lot of trouble and it’s just going to start eating in that cash, eating in that cash.
So I’ve talked to some actors in this space that did the kind of DSCR lending, things like that, and they’re terrified because they were using majority credit scores and unfortunately they didn’t realize that evictions weren’t being reported. You had the mortgage forbearance, you had student loans just stop reporting. And so when that reporting started, everybody woke up to a very different credit picture, especially for our younger generations. And the issue too is you got to think about like Klarna, our firm has a loan from Blue Owl.
Only one of those is reporting to credit, most are not. And this is what I’m hearing. And so when the Fed does its debt and household schedule, where do they get that information? They get it from Experian. Also, this is something nobody knows, I don’t think, is that the payment deferrals, which were the workouts for the Fannie and Freddie loans, those aren’t recorded on public record.
And just as we were talking about at the beginning of the show, those systems are so old. If you ever see a credit reporting file, you’d probably want to go jump off a building. It’s so crazy. And so the smaller servicers can’t get it right. Sometimes they don’t get it right for other reasons, but I don’t believe that those loan to values are being properly reported. And I reached out to CoreLogic Totality and I was like, how are you accounting? Because they do the mortgage equity withdrawal study that every newspaper uses and they get their information from public records.That’s why we can trust Case Schiller more than we can. Nar last time had to re-report three years of price history and sales history, but we can trust Case Shiller because they’re pulling from recorded record. And I said, “So how are you taking that into consideration?” Of course, I

Dave:
Got

Melody:
No response.

Dave:
Interesting.

Melody:
They’re

Dave:
Not. So you think that would imply that the total homeowner equity is over-reported? Is that what you mean?

Melody:
Oh, yes. Yep.

Dave:
Because of forbearance, people were basically deferring their principal pay down- 18

Melody:
Months.

Dave:
… for whatever it is, a certain amount of time. So that could … Yeah, I think that is probably true that it is being over-reported, but it’s still super high. I think that’s the thing that kind of makes me feel better about total homeowner equity, at least, because even I was kind of doing the math the other day, I was thinking about this, and it’s like maybe a trillion dollars of over-reporting, which sounds like a lot, but total homeowner equity is reported right now, like 35 trillion. So it makes a difference, but not crazy. But I want to go back to the DSCR thing, because I think that’s relevant to our audience. So you’re basically saying that a lot of these private lenders, which could be everything from DSCR to even people who are, I would assume, buying notes or whatever they’re doing, they are recognizing that there was more risk in their portfolio than they originally did.
Do you know or have any insights on are delinquencies up in that space? Because I think that’s the thing that I keep coming back to about a crash is that I think delinquencies are the real canary in the coal mine. I don’t disagree with you about demographic stuff. I actually did a whole show about it last week about demographics and I think it hits more towards the 2030s personally, but I agree with you that there’s significant headwinds there for real estate. But to me, the reason the market has held up, and I think for the foreseeable future might see smaller declines, but not huge ones, is delinquency rates for conventional mortgages at least remain relatively low. But as you’ve pointed out, things are all super interconnected. So are delinquencies in private credit going up?

Melody:
Oh yeah. We have so few numbers. This is the problem,
But looking at Black Knight, this time last year, they were already over 12% and that stuff that we know about, this is the problem is only 3% of the market. So big whoop, right? But FHA actually is now, it was 7% of the market in our previous cycle, it is now 13% of the market. And so what I’m looking at, again, a lot of different metrics because we’re missing so much data. So you look at the debt to income schedule on Fannie Mae, they report it and we are at 2008 levels. And so I get your point 100% on there is a ton of equity out there. I think it’s probably been spent elsewhere that we don’t sell a lot of it.

Dave:
That’s interesting.

Melody:
I’ve

Dave:
Seen

Melody:
It. I’ve seen it. And so you always see it in servicing, not origination, because you see what warts, what actually happened when those loans go to default. But FHA being at 12%, I mean, this is insane.That’s really levels that we saw back then. And as I was saying, subprime is only about 12% of the market. So the reason we’ve been able to sustain this is all that government intervention. We basically had what they did after the GFC on steroids thrown into … I mean, that advanced loan modification that FHA was doing was just the mill. I mean, people were not paying, they just kept going back. You didn’t pay for three months and we went back and you just kept going over and over. Now it’s restricted to one every 24 months, up to 30% of unpaid principal. I mean, that’s insane. And so the other thing about the prime books, to your point, cannot argue with those low delinquency rates, they’re starting to tick up.
This is the season they should not be ticking up at all because it’s tax refund and bonus season, but guess what they do? They do non-performing loan sales and they sell those loans off to hedge funds.

Dave:
Interesting.

Melody:
And hedge funds then can either take on the servicing of these loans or they can sell them off to private investors, which is the conference I go to in Nashville, but they sell them off to books. They’re gone.

Dave:
So what you’re saying is if you’re a conventional mortgage holder and you have a non-performing loan, someone stops paying. The reason it might not show up in the data is because the institution, whoever it is holding that note, might just sell it to a private investor instead of keeping it on their own books. And because private investors don’t have the same reporting requirements as any of the GSCs, then it might not show up in our delinquency reporting. Is that what you’re saying?

Melody:
So I’ve talked to some of these servicers, they’re not reporting to credit. You don’t have to. And in fact, some of these, my suspicion is some of these funds don’t want to do that because it would then kind of bring more awareness to … Because if the private market right now has such a high delinquency rate, I can guarantee you those that were sold off that we’re not even tracking has a high one as well. And so, I mean, this is, as you alluded to, this is a very complicated machine. It’s hard for anybody to really figure out how it works, but there’s so many moving parts. And I think a lot of people are doing what, I mean, as natural as a human, they’re looking back to last time and saying, “Well, this isn’t the same, this isn’t the same.” And I agree with all those points.
In fact, when I first started this journey, I said, “Mortgage is not going to have an issue.” It’s not because property taxes and insurance are going to be enough to trigger some people. I mean, and you can see it when I’m traveling, I always try to watch the local news. Every single news, it’s about property taxes. And so that becomes a mortgage to some people,
But if you’re on a fixed income and somebody tells you your property tax is getting raised by 50% or your insurance, it doesn’t matter that you’ve paid off your home. And so those are the types of things that we’re seeing, but I totally, I get everybody’s points and I agree

Dave:
With

Melody:
All of that data, but I think we’re missing a ton.

Dave:
Yeah, it’s interesting. I think a lot of the data is not complete essentially that we’re missing sort of a dangerous part of the market in at least the public reporting, which I can’t argue with. I just don’t know. That’s the scary part. I guess it’s like, I don’t know if that’s what the case is. So we got to take one more quick break, but we’ll be right back with Melody Wright. Stick with us. Welcome back everyone. Let’s jump back in with Melody. I’m curious, do you know, you might not, like know what the percentage of total mortgages in the market are private now versus sort of the things that are tracked?

Melody:
Yeah. If I knew that, I’d be a rich person. But

Dave:
What

Melody:
I do know is, so I take anecdata, like I always try to back it up with data, but Inman did an article a couple years ago about Austin specifically and said 50% of the transactions that happen within these specific zip codes, of course they’re nicer zip codes, we’re all private. You can see amounts of seller financing for the ones that go through the MLS, but when I go talk to these guys at the private note conference, yeah, I think it was 23 billion in 23-

Dave:
Seller financing is like almost always off

Melody:
Market.

Dave:
Yeah.

Melody:
And so we don’t know, but every time I talk to someone, they’re like, “Oh, well, we didn’t go through a realtor. Oh, we didn’t do this or…” I mean, you’re hearing about so much of this. So I think that one of the issues why we’re having lower sales is because it’s just happening outside of traditional NAR markets or MLS.

Dave:
Yeah, they’re losing their monopoly a little bit.

Melody:
And they knew this in 2015. You can go back and I want to get my hands on it, but they were freaking out about it. So I think that happened at scale during COVID. Homes are being sold on Facebook, especially short-term rental properties in a matter of seconds. So I think this has happened. This is why the data looks the way it does to some degree, but that sizing that market is a big deal. But I’ve heard some of that seller financing is at really small servicers that aren’t reporting to credit, had something like a 37% default rate, something crazy. I mean, I can’t remember the number exactly, and it’s just a small shop, so it’s not fully representative of anything, but these are the canary and the coal mines. When the Talking Heads talk on mainstream media, a lot of their talk is about Joe and Jane, first time home buyers, but I don’t think they realize how much our market is actually about investors and how much they participate.
And the Philly Fed did a great article in January of 23 that said, “We know that fraud didn’t stop after the GFC.” And in fact, what we can tell you, it Is that where investors are participating, you can add that there’s going to be a third more actually than what’s being reported. So you know Redfin tracks-

Dave:
Transaction volume?

Melody:
Yeah. Because of the

Dave:
Owner

Melody:
Occupancy fraud, right?

Dave:
Oh, that kind of fraud where people are claiming owner occupancy.

Melody:
Yeah. And what I’m seeing in servicing, and they got their cousin to get a loan. And I mean, I’m seeing crazy stuff that I got to be honest with you, I didn’t see in the last crisis where I’m like … Yeah. So the other thing everybody has to understand is that when you … So 85% of mortgages go to the agencies, be that Fannie, Freddie, FHA. They have these underwriting, automated underwriting tools that you have to use. So you fill out all the information, you hit send, you get back an approval. Well, like any game, you can learn to game this game.

Dave:
Yeah, right. Exactly. It’s just a different kind of fraud, not fraud, or just like people game the system differently. Yeah. Because you

Melody:
Just gained the system and I have now seen- It’s a human

Dave:
Nature.

Melody:
Yeah. Where I mean, just crazy stuff that would’ve never happened before, full liens. Anyway, point is servicing and starting to show the cracks. And so I like to say to people, in 2007, my Prime books looked just fine. They look fine. I mean, we had low LTE looked fine. By the time we came around the corner to 2010, that was a completely different story because the foreclosure crisis for us was our prime borrowers. I mean, it wasn’t the subprime because they were such a smaller percent. And I forgot that part. I managed default at the end of my career at GMAG ResCap. And so at the time I had 65,000 foreclosures and I was traveling all over the country trying to figure out what to do. And I think that was one of the most shocking things this time is I would go to the same neighborhoods that were complete disasters last time.
And in some neighborhoods that had been bulldozed and they were building there again and off to the sides and off to the sides and off to the sides. So it’s not what it was before. We could have this credit crisis be triggered by private credit, not
Personal loans.

Dave:
Not subprime.

Melody:
Not

Dave:
Subprime. Yeah. To your point,
Subprime small part of the market in 2008, but it creates a whole financial mess. It’s a lot of interconnectedness. Domino’s, you have banking regulations that require them to keep certain amounts of capital when that starts to dry up. It just causes this chain reaction. And so what you’re saying is, let me paraphrase and correct me if I’m wrong, is you’re thinking that one potential avenue that could trigger a slide in prices in the housing market is instead of subprime this time, it’s like private market money that could then spill into the banking sector and sort of jam up the entire financial plumbing that is required for real estate to work.

Melody:
That’s right. I mean, commercial real estate was held up by private credit majority last year, 20 to 25%.

Dave:
Oh yeah. Commercial for sure. Yes. Yeah.

Melody:
So now I’m starting to go after these smaller companies that I have not … I’m looking into BestEx, some other companies like that just to see, because we have our MFS here somewhere. That was the UK lender in mortgage. There’s one of these here and I’m trying to find it, but just know that a lot of these private transactions were just mom and pop investors. I have seen a chain of title that would make your head explode of second lien, second lien, second … And none of this, these were all private borrowers. And this is what’s happening in bankruptcies is servicers are having to go back to their clients and say, “I’m sorry, you’re not in first position.” Because the other thing that was happening is that there were recording delays. Los Angeles had a year recording delay.

Dave:
And so they don’t even know they’re a second?

Melody:
Yeah. You could get your credit run at the same time, like in the same … You could get two loans on one home easily back then, because I mean, the machine was just going so fast. So there’s all these little things like this. And I think that a lot of those private investors would get funding from one of these companies through some sort of fund and they’re kind of out there on their own. So we really, we don’t … You used to have to, when you did these non-performing loan sales, the agencies used to put out a report that told you how many loan modifications were done. You had to report everything you were doing with those loans. That stopped a while ago.

Dave:
Yeah. And there’s no hope to get that in private credit, right? They’re not required to do this.

Melody:
No.

Dave:
So we just don’t know, and we probably never will. Is that basically how it works?

Melody:
We might. We might know a little bit because I think you can, you can look at recorded and if you did a deeper dive into recorded mortgages, you could trace this money down. So I think somebody will probably do that work after the fact. I think there’s going to be a lot of papers written about this, but yeah.

Dave:
Yeah. We’ll know retroactively the same way we knew about subprime retroactively.

Melody:
And this is why I do what I do because this is what I remember from the crisis was all of my leaders were misinformed and they just kept hoping and hoping and making bad decisions on that hope. And it’s like, I’m not trying to scare people. I just want them to have some of this information. They can choose to ignore it. I don’t care. But I don’t want some young family, and this is already happening, go buy a new home. And then about two months later, they’re told that the rest of the homes are being sold for rental and you’ve just changed the entire what you purchased. And buying in subdivisions that are never going to be full. I mean, there’s just so many bad decisions that were made and continue to be made. And I’m just hoping to give people just some information to just consider or ignore.

Dave:
Yeah. Well, thank you. This has been super helpful, Melody. I really appreciate you being here. I just have one last question for you. Sure. What do you make of the labor market? For people who listen to the show, I sort of like to regularly tell people different scenarios that could play out. I like to not say, “This is definitely going to happen.” I started last year thinking a crash into … I don’t like to forecast well beyond a year or so, but I said a crash in 2026, maybe a 15% chance. I’ve sort of raised that in the last couple of months to like 25%. I still think, like you said, we’ll skate by. I think that’s the most probable scenario. But to me, the big risk of the sentiment shift is this white collar recession I personally believe we’re going in with layoffs or even just not hiring.
I don’t even think it needs to be that big. So I’m curious, that’s the thing that is more acutely worrying to me. I’m very interested in what you’re saying. I’m going to dig into it more, but since I don’t have the data, it’s hard for me to know and quantify. But the labor market thing, that worries me a little bit. So I’m just curious what you make of that and how that might fit into this picture.

Melody:
Yeah, it’s a big deal. And you can see the white collar recession.That’s what’s happening in San Jose right now. I mean, you can just see it. People

Dave:
Are listing- I live in Seattle, so you

Melody:
See it here too. Yeah, exactly. And I mean, and I heard jokes six months ago, “Well, we’re just trying to sell our house to the Nvidia new millionaires or whatever.” But it’s like you’ve got a ton of motivated selling in California. And I think that probably awareness that the AI bubble is being slowly leaking here is happening. And I think unfortunately, again, those numbers were, the revisions were just insane last year in terms of what the job market actually was. But what you can see is the only thing that’s growing is health and education services. And what

Dave:
Sits in that

Melody:
Is private public partnerships. So that’s a lot of government money actually, even though it doesn’t fall into the government category. So I think the labor market’s much weaker than most people think. And I think that layoff at Block in terms of a sentiment shifter for those white collar,

Dave:
Way bigger

Melody:
Than 16,000 at one of the big shops. This is, “Hey, man, you’re supposed to be sexy and lean. What are you doing laying off half your employees?” And I personally don’t think it’s all about AI. I think they overhired and there’s a lot of- Yes, I totally agree.

Dave:
Yeah. 100%.

Melody:
Yeah. I’m worried. I’m very worried. And if we get a credit crisis, I mean, that’s everybody in these private credit shops. That’s a ton of white collar workers. So yeah, I mean, I think in some ways we’ve probably already been in the white collar recession.

Dave:
Oh, I agree with you there. I think it’s not like a white collar crash yet because I think layoffs are surprisingly low actually if you look historically, but no one’s getting hired. I think that’s … And I have a lot of friends in tech before I worked at BiggerPockets. I worked in tech. I can tell you, you’re right about the Jack Dorsey letter. People are freaking out about that and just the sentiment about it. For people who don’t know, Jack Dorsey, founder of Twitter now, what’s called Block is the name of the company, wrote this letter just about like, “We don’t need people anymore.” I’m laughing because it’s just so crazy, not because I think it’s funny.
Yeah. It’s terrifying, to be honest. And I think this is a real thing. I sometimes think companies are overconfident in AI right now, and that they’re assuming that they’re going to be able to replace all these jobs. And I think the pendulum might swing too far, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be short-term pain. I think there still will be. And companies, especially if they’re faced with slowing consumer sales or whatever, they’re going to wait as long as they can to hire people again and they’re going to try AI for basically everything. So yeah, I think the risks are going up. I do personally take some solace in the fact that there is a lot of equity. We’re not seeing inventory explode right now. In fact, the pace of inventory growth is going down. And so I still think for the next year, slow declines, single digit declines are going on, but there’s just so many variables right now.
And this private credit thing is a new one for us to think about. So thanks for sharing so much with us, Melody. We appreciate you being here.

Melody:
Of course. Thank you. Thank you so much.

Dave:
And thank you all so much for listening to this episode of On The Market. We’ll see you next time.

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Even the most surly landlords would have to admit they’ve had it pretty good for quite a while when it comes to rent increases. As of January 2026, some areas have recorded a 40% increase in fair market rents for one- and two-bedroom units since fiscal year 2021.

But finally, after being stretched thin, tenants are getting a break. Rents are down nationwide, and it’s landlords who have to watch the bottom line.

The national median rent just recorded its lowest January level in four years, according to Apartment List data reported by CNBC, down 1.4% from a year ago to $1,353. That leaves rents about 6.2% below their peak in summer 2022 as new supply floods the market.

The asking rents for zero- to two-bedroom units have now posted 29 straight months of declines in many markets, according to Realtor.com’s January 2026 Rental Report. For small landlords, adapting quickly to changing market conditions is key to protecting long-term cash flow.

A “Rental-Friendly” Era

Vacancy rates are up in many markets and nationally by 7.3%, according to CNBC, and with them come concessions and rent drops as the market softens, creating a renter-friendly, more balanced environment. According to Realtor.com, these markets include traditionally high-priced metros, such as Denver, Sacramento, and Washington, D.C.

Some markets—such as Austin, Texas, which saw a 6.3% decline from the previous year—are experiencing an even more extreme contraction. Other declining markets include New Orleans, San Antonio, Texas, and Tucson, Arizona. The Los Angeles Times reported that rents in L.A. dropped to a four-year low. 

Douglas Elliman broker Michelle Griffith told CNBC that “2026 is shaping up to be one of the more renter-friendly periods we’ve seen in a decade.”

The softening is due to supply having exploded, particularly in the commercial and multifamily sectors, as over 600,000 new multifamily units were completed nationally in 2024, according to figures from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. In addition, 2 million rentals are expected to open by 2028, according to RentCafe.

The subsequent glacial rent growth has seen multifamily housing rents rise just 0.1% in February from December to $1,716, while annual rent growth was 0.4%, from 0.6% the previous month and a precipitous drop from 1.5% a year earlier, according to the Apartments.com multifamily rent growth report.

“We’re seeing price wars within buildings, longer days on market, and the need for multiple price reductions just to generate foot traffic,” Jaclyn Bild, a real estate broker associate at Douglas Elliman, told CNBC.

It’s Not All Negative for Landlords

The recent price drops need to be taken in context. Landlords are still sitting pretty, as “rising rents over recent years have made it more difficult for potential first-time buyers to save for a down payment, further constraining affordability,” Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality, said in a Property Markets Insights report. In some markets, such as Miami, rents have increased by more than 50% over the last five years.

“If your income is rising at the same time your rent is, maybe that extra expense is no big deal,” Matt Schulz, chief consumer finance analyst at LendingTree, said in a recent report, as cited by CBS News. “However, so many Americans’ financial wiggle room is tiny, even in the best of times, so having to carve out hundreds of extra dollars to pay rent each month can be a big deal.”

The drop in rents doesn’t mean that tenants are about to bail on signing new leases, especially with inflation far from out of the woods amid economic uncertainty and a poor jobs report.

Realtor.com senior economist Jake Krimmel said in a press release, “The foundation for a housing rebound may be taking shape, but rebuilding confidence and moving the needle on affordability will require a sustained stretch of lower inflation and a more certain labor market.”

By contrast, certain markets in the Northeast and West Coast, where new construction has not been so robust, have been more resilient, according to Realtor.com data, despite year-over-year rent drops in Los Angeles and New York.

The Takeaway for Landlords

The rental market is not monolithic. According to Realtor.com, as reported by sister site MarketWatch, higher?income renters are getting bigger rent cuts, while lower?income renters have seen rents rise more since 2019 and fall less recently, so cheaper rentals have been hit much harder.

“The softness at the top of the market is primarily what is driving down the median,” Realtor.com stated. “Those renters in higher-cost units have seen the bulk of the rent relief since 2023, while those in low-cost units have seen very little of it.”

Not surprisingly, in markets where there has been a lot of construction of large apartment buildings and thus more units to fill, landlords have been far more willing to offer concessions such as a month’s free rent and free parking, Homes.com reported.

According to real estate analytics company ATTOM Data Solutions, some single-family rental markets have not been immune to the softening rental market. Combined with increased operating costs, this has left small landlords with little room for negotiating new leases. This means smaller investors need to be especially disciplined about underwriting rent assumptions and renewal terms because they do not have the same financial leeway as large institutional operators of multifamily apartment buildings.

Final Thoughts: Strategies for Smaller Landlords in a Softening Rental Market

Landlords can no longer rely on presumptive rental increases—at least in the short term. Surviving in a market where expenses have consistently been on an upward tear and rents are stalling will bring different challenges to different investors, depending on the size of their debt burden. Those who bought when interest rates were low are in a good position. Recent buyers or those who have recently refinanced will need to be particularly savvy going forward.

It’s an old-school formula: safeguard income and reduce expenses. Keep good tenants in place through incentivized lease renewals, and cut down on extraneous expenses by negotiating with contractors, utility companies, and suppliers, shopping for insurance, appealing property taxes, and maintaining major systems to offset repairs.

Eventually, once the market absorbs new apartments, rents will start to increase again, as they always do. In the meantime, managing what you have requires meticulous attention to detail and a steady hand on the tiller.



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Have Florida’s days in the real estate investment sun come to an end?

That appears to be the takeaway from a new report from brokerage/listing site Redfin, which showed Florida as one of the few states where investment activity—both mom-and-pop and institutional—has declined, while nationally, purchases were up about 2% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The Sunshine State has experienced a steep decline in investment activity, with major cities down double digits. In Orlando, the 16% year-over-year drop was the largest among the 38 most populous U.S. metropolitan areas Redfin analyzed. Fort Lauderdale was just behind with a 15% drop-off, while further north, Jacksonville was down 7%.

Redfin’s head of economic research, Chen Zhao, said in the report: 

“Some investors are keeping their pocketbooks closed, which eliminates competition for everyday first-time buyers. The pandemic-era investor frenzy that crowded out so many first-time homebuyers has largely fizzled. There are still obstacles for buyers, like high costs, but investors are no longer one of them—at least in many parts of the country.”

The Math for Investors

The reasons for the pullback from Florida are not hard to figure out: rising expenses and stalling rents. While this is true for much of the country, in Florida, those expenses are even more pronounced due to a steep rise in insurance costs. 

Bankrate’s March 2026 homeowners survey put Florida’s average premium at about $5,838 per year for a standard policy with $300,000 in dwelling coverage, more than double the U.S. average of $2,424.

That analysis shows that Florida’s typical homeowner pays roughly $3,400 more per year than the national norm, which is a killer for the modest cash flow that mom-and-pop investors rely on in the current era of high interest rates and rising taxes.

A separate analysis won’t give investors banking on appreciation much solace. Data and analytics site Cotality highlighted several Florida metros, from Cape Coral-Fort Myers to Punta Gorda, as among the most at risk of price declines over the next 12 months.

A Meaningful Rate Change Could Be Monumental

“Lower mortgage rates and more inventory are starting to bring sidelined buyers back into the market—and Florida stands to benefit more than most,” Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research for the National Association of Realtors, told Yahoo! Finance. “Even a small drop in mortgage rates can unlock thousands of new buyers in Florida. A drop from 7% to 6% could introduce over 6,000 additional buyers each month into the Orlando market alone.”

Higher inventory and lower rates could also bring cash flow back into the equation, especially if price drops coincide with meaningful rate cuts.

But even though some of Florida’s markets are stuttering, it doesn’t mean every market in the state is a bad investment. As expected, Florida Realtors’ January 2026 outlook is rosier, specifically for homebuyers, describing the state’s housing market as moving onto “firmer ground.” It noted that sales have been rising consistently for the first time since rates began climbing in 2022 and that listings are being absorbed.

Where Investors Can Still Cash Flow in Florida

However, for investors, the question is ROI, which is more likely to be found inland, in North and Central Florida, away from the overheated coastal markets.

Multifamily & Affordable Housing Business’s 2025 outlook identified Jacksonville as a strong investment market, driven by affordability, new jobs, and household growth (the increase in occupied housing units). A brokerage-based investing guide on emerging Florida submarkets notes that North Central Florida, specifically Ocala and Gainesville, has appealing rent-to-price ratios and relatively lower insurance and tax burdens than the coastal southern part of the state. It also mentioned stable employment and lower-priced properties that can potentially clear $600-$900 in monthly cash flow.

Other States Are Filling Florida’s Void

As major markets in Florida lose some of their shine, Redfin’s data shows investors gravitating to a diverse mix of markets, including parts of the West Coast, the Carolinas, and affordable “refuge” metros in the Northeast and Midwest. These include markets such as:

  • Seattle (investor activity up 37% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2025)
  • Portland, Oregon (up 27%)
  • Milwaukee (up 24%)
  • San Francisco (24%)
  • Providence, Rhode Island (up 20%)

However, investments in many of these markets are there for very different reasons. Pricey West Coast markets are attracting deep-pocketed landlords betting on high rental demand driven by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom and tech companies’ return-to-office mandates. Many investors are institutional or wealthy individuals, the Redfin report notes, who can pay cash.

To this end, the report stated that most investor purchases of high-end homes in the luxury market increased 5% year over year as of the fourth quarter of 2025, making it more competitive than the non-luxury market.

Final Thoughts

If you are looking for investing options other than Florida’s coastal markets, it’s best to compare apples to apples. That excludes the high-priced West Coast tech markets. Instead, refuge markets mentioned in Realtor.com’s 2026 Economic and Housing Market Update, as well as other Sunbelt markets in North and South Carolina, will allow you to compare price points and cash flow stats, as well as economic data, jobs, and more with nonperforming Florida markets and find a market that suits your budget. Crucially, markets in economically robust metros where buyers can negotiate a deal are golden for cash flow.

If you are intent on investing in Florida but struggling to make home insurance numbers work, a recent New York Times article reveals that your credit score is often a big factor in predicting your homeowner’s insurance cost.

Zillow’s three biggest buyer-friendly markets for 2026 are Indianapolis, Atlanta, and Charlotte due to lower competition and cooling home values. Jacksonville, Memphis, and Detroit also get honorable mentions, as do other markets in the Sunbelt and the Midwest. 

Fittingly, some of these also coincide with BiggerPockets’ Top Five Cash Flow Markets for Investors in 2026.



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This article is presented by Steadily.

Most real estate investors can tell you their ROI down to two decimal places. They can walk you through their expense ratio and their five-year appreciation projection without blinking.

But ask them about their landlord responsibilities? Silence. And that silence is expensive.

I’ve seen some version of this happen more times than I can count: A landlord spends weeks finding the right deal, negotiates a great price, gets their financing in order, and closes with confidence. Then, six months later, they are hit with a habitability complaint, a Fair Housing violation notice, or a liability claim they had no idea was coming. Not because they were reckless, but because nobody ever handed them a clear picture of what being a landlord actually requires.

This post is that picture. Think of it as a self-audit, a plain-English walkthrough of the four categories of landlord responsibility that determine whether your investment is truly protected or just looks that way on paper. 

Responsibility No. 1: Habitability

The moment a tenant signs a lease, you are legally bound by something called the Warranty of Habitability. You do not have to write it into the contract, it is implied by law in virtually every state. And it says one thing clearly: the property you are renting out must meet basic safety and living standards before and throughout the tenancy.

What does that actually mean in practice? Habitability covers more ground than most landlords assume. At a minimum, you are responsible for:

  • Structural integrity. Foundation, walls, roof, windows, and doors must be sound and secure.
  • Working systems. Electrical, plumbing, and HVAC must function. In states like Arizona, functional air conditioning is a legal requirement due to heat risk.
  • Pest control. Infestations are your problem to solve, not the tenant’s.
  • Mold remediation. If there is mold, you must address both the mold and the moisture source causing it.
  • Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors. Each state sets specific requirements for quantity and placement.
  • Common area safety. Stairwells, parking lots, laundry rooms, and shared spaces need proper lighting, secure handrails, and maintained conditions.

The self-audit question that guides you should be: when did someone last physically inspect each of those items at your property?

If the answer is “I am not sure,” that is a gap. And when a habitability complaint hits, “I am not sure” does not hold up in front of a judge. Tenants have legal remedies that range from withholding rent to terminating the lease to suing for damages. The cost of a single habitability lawsuit dwarfs the cost of a quarterly inspection.

Responsibility No. 2: Ongoing Property Maintenance

Habitability may be the legal floor, but maintenance is what keeps you from falling through it.

A lot of landlords treat maintenance as purely reactive. Something breaks; they fix it. That approach is not wrong exactly, it is just incomplete. And incomplete maintenance habits are one of the fastest ways to turn a small issue into an expensive insurance claim – or worse, an uninsured one.

The thing insurance companies know that most landlords do not is that a high percentage of claims are traceable to deferred maintenance. A roof leak that started as a missing shingle, a water damage claim that began with a clogged gutter three seasons ago, or a liability lawsuit from a cracked walkway that someone pointed out in a maintenance request eight months earlier. These are all common and costly maintenance errors.

Your ongoing maintenance obligations go beyond fixing things when tenants call. They include:

  • Paying the mortgage on time. Obvious, but worth stating. At 90 days past due, foreclosure can begin.
  • Managing utilities. Any utility in your name must be paid. Some municipalities can place liens on your property for unpaid utility bills.
  • Scheduling preventive maintenance. HVAC servicing, roof inspections, gutter cleaning, dryer vent cleaning, and exterior walk-throughs should be on a calendar, not waiting for a problem.
  • Documenting everything. Invoices, photos, and inspection reports. This documentation is your evidence that you operated the property responsibly. Without it, you have no defense.

The self-audit question here is direct: Do you have a scheduled maintenance calendar for each property, or are you operating on a “wait and see” basis?

Proactive maintenance does two things for you: it preserves the asset, and it builds a documented track record that protects you when something goes sideways despite your best efforts.

Responsibility No. 3: Legal Compliance

This is the category most landlords underestimate, and unfortunately, it is also the one with the steepest penalties.

Legal compliance in property management is not just about avoiding evictions. It covers how you advertise, how you screen, how you handle money, and how you communicate. Get any of it wrong, and you are looking at fines, lawsuits, or both.

The Fair Housing Act

The Fair Housing Act prohibits discrimination in the rental process based on race, color, national origin, religion, sex, familial status, and disability. Violations do not have to be intentional. An ad that says “great for young professionals” can be read as discriminating against families. A policy that bans all pets without a written exemption process for emotional support animals violates the FHA’s disability clause.

First-offense civil penalties can reach $16,000. Repeat violations climb fast. And HUD complaints are not rare.

The Fair Credit Reporting Act

Every time you run a background check, credit check, or pull rental history on an applicant, you are operating under FCRA rules. You must get written permission before running reports. You must protect that data. And if you deny an applicant based on what you found, you must provide a standardized adverse action notice explaining why.

Skipping that step is not just sloppy; it’s a federal violation.

Security deposits, lead paint, and right-to-entry

Security deposits are governed differently in every state. Some states cap the amount at one or two months’ rent. Many require the deposit to be held in a separate account. Most set a deadline for returning funds after move-out, typically 14 to 60 days. Miss that deadline or make improper deductions, and you may owe the tenant two or three times the original deposit.

If your property was built before 1978, you are required by federal law to provide every tenant with a lead paint disclosure before they sign – no exceptions.

Right-to-entry rules also vary by state. Some require 24 hours’ notice before you can enter for a non-emergency. Others require 48 or 72 hours. A few states allow landlords to enter without warning under certain circumstances. Entering without proper notice, even for legitimate maintenance, can give a tenant legal grounds to break the lease.

Self-audit question: When did you last review your lease language and screening process against current federal and state law?

Responsibility No. 4: State-Specific Rules That Change Everything

Here is something that catches out-of-state investors especially hard: what is perfectly legal landlord behavior in one state is a violation in the next one.

Arkansas allows landlords to enter a property without prior notice. California requires a minimum of 24 hours. Kentucky caps small claims court at $2,500. Delaware allows up to $25,000. Some states require security deposits to earn interest. Others have no such rule. Eviction timelines, late fee limits, rent increase notice periods, and move-out inspection requirements all differ by state, and sometimes by city within a state.

If you own property in more than one market, you cannot apply the same playbook across all of them. And if you have not checked whether your state updated its landlord-tenant statutes recently, you may already be out of compliance without knowing it.

The self-audit question: Do you have a current, state-specific understanding of your obligations for every market where you own property?

If the answer is no, that is not unusual. But it is a real gap. Start with your state’s landlord-tenant statutes and run them against your current lease and operating procedures. Bring in a local real estate attorney if anything is unclear.

You Can Do Everything Right and Still Take a Hit

So you ran the self-audit. You checked the habitability boxes. Your maintenance is scheduled and documented. Your lease is compliant with state and federal law. You know your right-to-entry rules and your security deposit deadlines.

That is genuinely solid. Most landlords are not operating at that level.

But here is the part nobody likes to say out loud: Compliance and maintenance reduce your risk, but they do not eliminate it.

A tenant gets injured despite your best efforts. A storm causes damage that your standard homeowners policy does not cover because the property is a rental. You lose three months of rent while a vacancy drags on after a covered loss. A vendor working on your property files a claim, and the liability boomerangs back to you.

These scenarios happen to landlords who did everything right. And when they do, the financial exposure lands directly on the property owner, not the tenant, not the property manager, not the city.

That is exactly where your insurance strategy has to close the gap that compliance alone cannot.

And if you are still carrying a standard homeowners policy on a rental property, I want to be direct with you: that policy was not written for landlords. It does not cover loss of rent. It may not cover tenant-caused damage. Perhaps most importantly in the context of this article, it does not cover liability claims that come from tenants. 

Homeowners insurance was built for owner-occupants, not investors. This is the gap that Steadily was built to fill.

Steadily is landlord insurance coverage designed specifically for real estate investors. Not adapted from a homeowner product, nor pieced together from commercial lines. The products are built from the ground up for people who own rental properties and need coverage that actually matches how they operate.

Here is what that means practically:

  • Loss of rent coverage. If a covered event makes your property uninhabitable, Steadily helps replace the rental income you lose while repairs are underway.
  • Liability protection. If a tenant or guest is injured on your property, your landlord policy covers legal costs and damages in ways a standard homeowners policy may not.
  • Property damage coverage. Fire, storms, vandalism, and more, with coverage calibrated for rental properties, not owner-occupied homes.
  • Coverage for all rental types. Single-family homes, multifamily, and short-term rentals like Airbnb. Steadily covers them all nationwide.
  • Fast quotes with no paperwork nightmare. Investors can get a quote in minutes, not days. Whether you own one door or fifty, the process is built to move at the pace of your business.

Think about it this way. You just ran a checklist of your four core landlord responsibilities. You identified where your systems are solid and where the gaps are. That same mindset needs to apply to your insurance. When did you last audit your coverage the same way you just audited your compliance?

Most landlords have not. They got a policy when they bought the property and have not looked at it since. That is fine when nothing goes wrong. When something does, that is when the policy details matter.

Steadily makes that audit easy. Their team works specifically with real estate investors, which means they understand what you are protecting and can match your coverage to your actual risk profile, not a generic homeowner template.

Time to Close the Final Gap

You have done the work on compliance. Now do the same for your coverage. Get a fast, free landlord insurance quote from Steadily today at Steadily.com. It takes five minutes. And it might be the most important thing you do for your portfolio this quarter.



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Investors with a sizable portfolio of single-family homes have been getting it from all sides recently. A new bill is adding yet more fuel to the fire.

Legislation targeting single-family investors comes from a coalition of Senate Democrats led by Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, including Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley, Delaware Senator Chris Coons, and 15 other Democratic senators. The group aims to end key deductions for corporate entities that buy up more than 50 single-family homes for rent through their bill, The American Homeownership Act.

In a different and bipartisan measure, the Homes for American Families Act, co-sponsored by Republican Senator Josh Hawley and Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley (who is also involved in the Democratic bill), follows a similar theme but aims the bar higher, amending the Sherman Antitrust Act to make it illegal for investment funds with more than $150 million in assets to buy single-family homes, condos, or townhouses, with enforcement handled by the Justice Department’s antitrust division.

“Families deserve to be able to buy their own homes and achieve the American dream without competing with big investment companies that irrevocably drive up housing prices,” Hawley, a Missouri Republican, said in a statement. “That’s why I am introducing legislation to ban Wall Street from buying single-family homes once and for all.”

Could Mom-and-Pop Investors Be Affected?

While the Homes for American Families Act firmly targets real estate heavy hitters through its $150 million in assets threshold, the American Homeownership Act’s target of companies that buy more than 50 single-family homes for rent could infringe upon mom-and-pop investors who have been accruing their portfolios over the years, often buying fixer-uppers in less expensive areas in clusters when deals became available, particularly after the financial crash.

Senate Democrats’ bill appeared to back away from language that seemed to affect mom-and-pop landlords, allowing investors who buy dilapidated homes to claim tax deductions for rehabbing those properties. However, it does not appear to apply retroactively. For landlords who have long held a portfolio of 50 units or more, whether they were once fixer-uppers or not, the 50-unit threshold still holds, according to Realtor.com and others.

CNBC’s description of the Warren-Merkley proposal says the legislation would prevent companies with more than 50 single-family rental properties from taking deductions for depreciation of housing value and mortgage interest payments. Corporations also would not be able to get federally backed mortgages. The bill would also bar Wall Street investors from buying foreclosed homes sold by a federal housing agency, the New York Times reported.

“Today, Democrats are introducing legislation to stop Wall Street from snapping up homes in bulk and jacking up rent for families,” Senator Warren said in a statement. “This bill will take on predatory landlords while making investments to increase housing supply and boost homeownership for Americans.”

The Trump Administration’s Take

The Trump administration first brought corporate single-family homeownership into the spotlight with its proposal banning investors who own more than 100 single-family homes from buying any new ones. Trump’s proposal includes exceptions for companies that increase the number of single-family homes.

This appears to have been amended more recently, according to the Washington Post, with new legislation unveiled on March 2 that includes incentives to build new housing and grants to renovate older housing. Also, the ban on large investors has been expanded to include those owning 350 single-family houses, at President Trump’s request.

The new legislation was spearheaded by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott (R-South Carolina) and Senator Elizabeth Warren. The new legislation has been dubbed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act. It still needs enough House members to support the plan for it to pass.

Corporate Ownership Is Higher in Sunbelt States

The deluge of bills addressing single-family-home corporate ownership comes as high housing costs have made homeownership difficult for many Americans. Homebuyers need to earn 43% more than the median worker to be able to afford a typical home, according to Federal Reserve data.

Although nationally, large institutional investors only own 3.8% of all single-family rentals, the numbers vary across the U.S. In Sunbelt cities like Atlanta, for example, according to a 2023 Urban Institute analysis, large investors owned about 28.6% of such homes. That number was 20% in Charlotte and 9% in Houston.

“It would make a significant difference in these places, where it’s an outsized issue,” Colin Allen, executive director of the American Property Owners’ Alliance, a homeowners’ advocacy group, told CBS News. “But they own a small share of homes overall.”

The rhetoric from those proposing bills, from both sides of the aisle, barely differs. With midterm elections coming up, this is clearly an issue that all sides want to address.

“Now with bipartisan support, we have wind in our sails to finally crack down on billionaire corporations gobbling up American homes,” Merkley said in a joint statement

Supply Is the Root Issue

Pricing wouldn’t be so prohibitive if there were more houses. The supply-and-demand issue is complex and involves land and construction costs, zoning, and possibly immigration and tariffs.

“We have to build more homes and look at policies that allow us to expand supply,” Allen told CBS News.

Edward Pinto, co-director of the AEI Housing Center at the American Enterprise Institute, a nonpartisan think tank, is unconvinced about how much impact curbing large investors’ purchases of single-family homes will have on the ground, making homeownership more affordable for American families.

It “is not going to have much of an impact—if any—on making homes more affordable,” Pinto told CBS News. “It just gives the impression of doing something positive, and so it may have some attractiveness on both sides of the aisle, but it’s not going to solve any problems.”

Final Thoughts

With so many competing bills in the race, it’s unclear which one will cross the finish line. One bill might pass that combines proposals. Given Trump’s position, it seems likely that his bill with a 350-single-family-home threshold stands a good chance of passing.

However, should the other Warren-led bill be approved, and you are an investor with around 50 units, the workaround is quite simple—1031 exchange some of those for two-to-four-unit homes, as small multifamily properties are not under discussion in any of these bills. 

Equally, if you are an investor looking to aggressively scale your portfolio, sticking to small multifamilies will keep you out of the spotlight while you enjoy all the tax breaks that come with real estate investing.



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Foreclosure markets tend to speak in stages. Early filings hint at pressure. Auction notices confirm momentum. And when Notices of Sale accelerate, it signals that distress is no longer theoretical—it’s moving rapidly toward resolution.

According to ATTOM Data Solutions, December 2025 marked a major inflection point in the foreclosure pipeline. After a strong but uneven fall, foreclosure auction activity surged sharply nationwide, pointing to a growing wave of properties advancing toward the courthouse steps.

For real estate investors, the Notice of Sale stage is one of the most actionable moments in the foreclosure process. It provides defined timelines, clearer visibility, and a direct window into which markets are likely to produce both auction opportunities and future REO inventory.

December’s data shows that auctions are not only increasing—they are doing so aggressively across several key states and counties as we head into 2026.

National Notice of Sale Activity Jumps Sharply

According to ATTOM Data Solutions, 23,235 Notices of Sale were recorded nationwide in December 2025, representing:

  • +25.10% month over month
  • +67.99% year over year

This is one of the strongest year-over-year increases in auction-stage filings seen in recent years. While Foreclosure Starts surged earlier in the month, the Notice of Sale data confirms that distress is now maturing rapidly.

In simple terms, this means more properties are advancing past early filings and entering the final countdown to auction.

State-Level Auction Trends: Five Key Markets in Focus

Florida

Florida’s auction pipeline reaccelerated sharply after November’s pullback. Nearly 50% year-over-year growth confirms that foreclosure activity remains deeply embedded in the state’s housing market.

  • 1,056 Notices of Sale
  • +24.24% MoM
  • +49.58% YoY

California

California’s auction activity rose meaningfully in December, particularly after several quieter months. This suggests that earlier filings are now pushing into the sale stage.

  • 1,315 Notices of Sale
  • +14.07% MoM
  • +25.60% YoY

Ohio

Ohio delivered one of the strongest auction surges in the country. Nearly 76% year-over-year growth signals a pronounced acceleration into late-stage foreclosure activity.

  • 688 Notices of Sale
  • +28.78% MoM
  • +75.51% YoY

North Carolina

North Carolina continues to stand out. Auction filings more than doubled year over year, reinforcing its reputation as one of the fastest-moving foreclosure states.

  • 610 Notices of Sale
  • +12.46% MoM
  • +131.94% YoY

Texas

Texas recorded the highest volume among all states. With a non-judicial foreclosure process, auction notices often follow closely behind Starts—making Texas one of the most dynamic foreclosure markets in the country.

  • 4,104 Notices of Sale
  • +36.35% MoM
  • +58.09% YoY

Why the Notice of Sale Stage Matters to Investors

For investors, the Notice of Sale phase represents a critical transition point.

1. Timelines become defined

Once a Notice of Sale is recorded, an auction date is typically set within weeks. This clarity allows investors to:

  • Perform focused due diligence.
  • Line up capital or financing.
  • Evaluate repair scope and exit strategy.
  • Decide whether to pursue pre-auction negotiations.

2. Distress becomes actionable

Properties at this stage are far less likely to cure. While some homeowners still resolve their situation, the probability of sale—or eventual REO—rises sharply.

3. Auctions forecast REO inventory

When Notices of Sale increase, REOs usually follow 60–120 days later, particularly in states with faster foreclosure timelines.

For investors who prefer bank-owned properties, auction data acts as an early warning system for future supply.

County-Level Insights: Where Auction Pressure Is Intensifying

Looking beyond state totals, county-level data reveals where the most meaningful auction-stage changes are occurring.

Florida: Central Florida, and urban cores reignite

Florida’s December surge was driven by:

  • Orange County (Orlando), which posted a notable jump in auction filings.
  • Lee County, continuing its steady progression from Starts into sales.
  • Miami-Dade County, which rebounded after a softer November.

Investor insight

Florida’s auction activity is broad-based, with both urban and investor-heavy markets contributing to rising volume.

California: Inland Empire pushes forward

California’s December increase was led by:

  • Riverside County, where auction notices rose sharply.
  • San Bernardino County, continuing its role as a foreclosure bellwether.
  • Los Angeles County, which showed a moderate but meaningful increase.

Investor insight

The Inland Empire remains one of California’s most consistent sources of auction inventory.

Ohio: Auctions accelerate in Central Ohio

Ohio’s spike was concentrated in:

  • Franklin County (Columbus), which recorded one of the largest MoM increases statewide.
  • Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), rebounding after earlier softness.
  • Montgomery County (Dayton), contributing to the statewide surge.

Investor insight

Central Ohio continues to transition quickly from early-stage filings into auctions.

North Carolina: Rapid conversion continues

North Carolina’s extraordinary YoY growth was driven by:

  • Mecklenburg County (Charlotte), with a clear increase in scheduled sales.
  • Wake County (Raleigh) continues to show elevated foreclosure velocity.
  • Guilford County, adding to statewide totals.

Investor insight

North Carolina’s foreclosure pipeline is moving faster than most states, compressing timelines for investor action.

Texas: Volume and velocity

Texas’ December auction surge was widespread:

  • Harris County (Houston) led the increase.
  • Dallas and Tarrant counties posted strong gains.
  • Bexar County (San Antonio) continued its upward trend.

Investor insight

Texas remains the fastest foreclosure market in the country—Starts often translate into auctions in weeks, not months.

How Investors May Use Notice of Sale Data

Notice of Sale data may help investors:

  1. Target auction-heavy counties where inventory is increasing.
  2. Prepare capital earlier, especially for retirement account strategies.
  3. Forecast REO opportunities before they hit the MLS.
  4. Align acquisition strategies with clearly defined auction calendars.

For investors using a Self-Directed IRA or Solo 401(k), the Notice of Sale stage offers a balance between urgency and preparation—more defined than preforeclosure but less rushed than the auction itself.

Disclaimer

Equity Trust Company is a directed custodian and does not provide tax, legal, or investment advice. Any information communicated by Equity Trust is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as tax, legal, or investment advice. Whenever making an investment decision, please consult with your tax attorney or financial professional.

BiggerPockets/PassivePockets is not affiliated in any way with Equity Trust Company or any of Equity’s family of companies. Opinions or ideas expressed by BiggerPockets/PassivePockets are not necessarily those of Equity Trust Company, nor do they reflect their views or endorsement. The information provided by Equity Trust Company is for educational purposes only. Equity Trust Company, and their affiliates, representatives, and officers, do not provide legal or tax advice. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Please consult your tax and legal advisors before making investment decisions. Equity Trust and Bigger Pockets/Passive Pockets may receive referral fees for any services performed as a result of being referred opportunities.



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