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Remember the good old days when kids read books instead of scrolling, and “likes” and “feed” were usually reserved for your favorite pets? Oh, yes, and there was that quaint old technique that real estate investors used to make money: the BRRRR strategy

Well, guess what? Just like the prehistoric shark in The Meg that is not in fact extinct, but alive and lurking in the deepest depths of the ocean, the BRRRR strategy—with a few modifications—has been living undercover in a few American outposts, biding its time for a comeback.  

In the same way that the Ice Age killed the dinosaurs, the BRRRR strategy met its grim reaper when interest rates shot skyward, making the cherished “buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat” formula about as useful as a chocolate teapot.

However, in some U.S. towns and cities, where typical homes list for under $250,000 and local incomes support the values, BRRRRing, like being a blacksmith or churning butter by hand, can still be practiced by real estate artisans with an appreciation for the old way of doing things.  

Why Sub-$250K Markets Still Matter

Realtor.com recently highlighted 10 metro areas where median listing prices remained under $250,000—roughly $175,000 under the national median. According to the website’s research team, these metros offer a “rare combination of affordability and stability,” meaning that a certain equilibrium exists between incomes and housing prices, which is a rarity in the current cash-strapped housing crisis.

The list of cities and their median listing prices is as follows:

  • Pottsville, Pennsylvania: $159,450 
  • Elmira, New York: $179,900 
  • Wheeling, West Virginia: $179,975
  • Wichita Falls, Texas: $199,900 
  • Ottawa, Illinois: $199,925 
  • St. Joseph, Missouri-Kansas: $227,125
  • Marinette, Wisconsin-Michigan: $227,425 
  • Waterloo-Cedar Falls, Iowa: $242,450 
  • Joplin, Missouri: $247,125
  • Watertown-Fort Drum, New York: $249,950

Earlier this year, Realtor.com compiled another list of sub-$250K markets suitable for first-time homeowners, which included three cities in Florida, and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, a firm favorite in both lists. 

Not surprisingly, these pockets of parity are not located in Sunbelt boomtowns or coastal enclaves but are scattered across the Midwest, Northeast, and Appalachia, in areas that have avoided speculative price surges over the last decade, making them stable and predictable and potentially fertile hunting ground for long-term rental investors.

“In these communities, buyers willing to look beyond major metros can still find attainable prices, reasonable competition, and a path to homeownership that remains feasible,” Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, explains.

BRRRRing in a Higher-Interest Rate World

The needle has moved dramatically away from using the BRRRR strategy in today’s high interest rate environment. While high home prices have impeded investing elsewhere, they are not a major factor in the areas mentioned. However, those pesky interest rates are. 

Out-of-the-box thinking, however, means BRRRRing might be tough but not impossible. Business Insider recently profiled two investors, Connor Swofford and Pieter Louw, from the Buffalo area who scaled to 24 units in two years using the BRRRR method. 

“With a $300,000 or $400,000 property, with closing costs, you have to come up with 60 to 80 grand, which is not very scalable,” Louw, a Buffalo real estate agent, said. 

Both recommend looking for multifamily deals that require minimal rehab and have at least one livable unit to generate rental income. They also suggest tighter underwriting and realistic timelines to bring in projects on budget, leaving room in the deal to repeat.

“Almost every property of ours has had a tenant still living in it, and that tenant is basically able to pay the interest expense as we are rehabbing the property,” explained Swofford. “So, we basically get to semi-rehab it for free in a way.”

When the price points are even lower, in the sub-$250K range, the numbers are more feasible, as long as strict underwriting protocols are maintained. 

Potential BRRRR Case Studies From Current Listings

2044 Mahantongo St, Pottsville, PA 

Zillow listed 2044 Mahantongo St in Pottsville at about $200,000, with a noted previous sale around $138,000 in early 2024, indicating some value increase over a short period. It sold on Dec. 5 for $203,500. 

In a market where the median list price is closer to $150,000, a $200,000 price tag suggests above?average size, condition, or location.

A lighter BRRRR/”slow BRRRR” sketch might assume:

  • Purchase: $195,000 contract after negotiating a modest discount 
  • Rehab: $15,000–$20,000 for updates and tenant?ready improvements, rather than a complete renovation 
  • All?in cost: About $210,000–$215,000 
  • Rent: In a smaller Pennsylvania market like Pottsville, a well?kept three? or four?bedroom single?family might rent in the $1,500–$1,800 range, depending on features and location. 
  • Refinance: If ARV lands modestly higher at $230,000, a 75% LTV loan would be about $172,500. 

Here, the refinance would likely not be a full “money?out” event; rather, it could return part of the initial cash, convert to fixed, long?term debt, and leave a stabilized rental that still produces some margin after debt service and operating expenses.

418 E Norwegian St., Pottsville, PA

Homes.com advertises a nine?bedroom, two?bathroom property at 418 E Norwegian St in Pottsville for about $150,000, calling it a “blank canvas ready for transformation,” noting it was originally two homes combined. That signals a heavier value?add project rather than a turnkey rental.

A high?level BRRRR pro forma might look like this:

  • Purchase: Assume full price at $150,000 due to unique size and potential to re-split into multiple units. 
  • Rehab: If an investor intends to reconfigure it back into two legal units with separate kitchens, updated baths, code?compliant egress, and system upgrades, a working rehab allowance might easily reach $120,000–$150,000 or more, depending on condition. 
  • All?in cost: Roughly $270,000–$300,000 
  • Rent: If repositioned as two four?or five?bedroom units, and assuming each could rent in a similar market at perhaps $1,300–$1,600, gross monthly rent could land in the $2,600–$3,200 range. 
  • Refinance: If the after?repair value appraises at, say, $330,000 based on income and comparable duplexes, 75% LTV would be about $247,500. 

In that case, the refinance could potentially return a large share of initial capital if the project stays near the lower rehab estimate and the appraisal supports the new income. The risk, of course, is that construction overruns or zoning and licensing hurdles push total costs up without a corresponding increase in ARV.

The Cash Flow Conundrum

If you live in these markets, many of you will no doubt run a cash flow analysis and realize that both these projects, at current interest rates, are either negative in cash flow or, at best, break even. So, why go through the hassle and expense of buying these deals in the first place? 

Here’s the reality check: It’s not 2021—and if you wish to perform a BRRRR seance and communicate with an old-school technique from beyond the grave, you will have to get creative with your rental plans to boost cash flow. Common ways to turbocharge revenue include:

  • Renting by the room
  • Mid-term rentals
  • Targeted ROIs to add bedrooms or convert attics or basements
  • Charging for parking/washer and dryer, and pet fees

Final Thoughts

If you have the liquidity to ride out the current interest rate cycle, it makes sense to buy now and be meticulous in your budgeting while exploring ways to increase income. Waiting until rates drop in a meaningful way will see you lost in the buying stampede, rather than coolly moonwalking your way to a mortgage that makes sense.

Much of the scenario for resurrecting an old scaling standby depends on your cash reserves and ability to get comfortable being uncomfortable in the current climate. You’ll realize short-term tax benefits and long-term appreciation, but it’s an all-hands-on-deck approach to investing. No one said it was easy.



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Most high-income professionals and business owners have no idea how much monthly income they actually need to retire—or worse, they’re relying on flawed internet formulas or ballpark guesses.

While $10K/month sounds good, inflation, healthcare, and a longer-than-expected retirement blow up that number.

This is the moment to fix that.

I’ll walk you through the exact steps to calculate your retirement income gap number, understand what your investments actually need to produce, and build a portfolio strategy that’s clear, calm, and compounding—not chaotic.

Most Investors Are Flying Blind

Most investors set passive income goals like they’re picking numbers out of a hat. “I think I’ll need $8K or $10K/month…”

That’s fine—until you realize your actual future need (adjusted for inflation and longevity) is $15K+ and you’ve under-allocated your entire portfolio.

In one case, a tech exec I worked with had a $4,000/month shortfall he didn’t see coming—and it would have wiped out his nest egg by year 13 of retirement.

The biggest threat to your freedom isn’t market volatility. It’s bad math.

What Happens When You Miss the Math

Let’s look at the numbers:

  • $10K/month in today’s dollars = $15K/month in 20 years (accounting for 3% to 4% inflation)
  • That’s $180K/year—not $120K, like most investors assume
  • Subtract Social Security or a pension? Maybe you still need to produce $8K–$10K/month
  • Don’t account for that? You’re looking at an $80,000+ income shortfall — just from miscalculating.

This is why the cash flow gap is the No. 1 threat to most retirement plans. Not taxes. Not the market. Just math.

How to Reverse-Engineer Your Passive Income Plan

Here’s what most people get wrong: They start with investment options and returns—not income clarity.

If you want work-optional living, you need a clear understanding of:

  • What your lifestyle costs now
  • How that number will evolve over time
  • What guaranteed income offsets (like Social Security, pensions, or annuities) exist
  • What your investments actually need to cover—consistently, month after month

This is where I help investors reverse-engineer their cash flow targets, pressure-test their assumptions, and align their portfolio with needs—not wishful thinking.

Step 1: Calculate your lifestyle-based need

Before you can plan your retirement income, you need to understand what your current lifestyle actually costs you. Too many investors skip this and rely on vague estimates—but clarity starts with tracking your actual expenses.

Break your costs into two categories:

  • Fixed: Mortgage, healthcare, insurance, utilities—the non-negotiables
  • Variable: Travel, hobbies, dining, family support—the lifestyle drivers

Take a moment to ask: What number do I truly need every month to feel secure and fulfilled? Write that down.

Step 2: Adjust for inflation (3% to 4%)

Now that you’ve identified your current lifestyle cost, it’s time to project it forward. Inflation silently chips away at your purchasing power every year—and over a 10-to-30-year retirement, the impact is massive.

Use a reliable inflation calculator to estimate your future needs:

  • $10K/month now = $13.4K/month in 10 years
  • $10K/month now = $15.9K/month in 20 years
  • $10K/month now = $24.7K/month in 30 years

These aren’t hypothetical numbers. They’re what your portfolio will have to deliver to maintain your lifestyle. Make sure your math keeps up.

Step 3: Add income offsets (conservatively)

Next, determine how much of your future income will come from guaranteed or predictable sources. These offset what your portfolio needs to generate.

Examples include:

  • Social Security (estimate conservatively based on current statements)
  • Pension payouts (if available)
  • Lifetime annuities or life insurance cash value disbursements
  • Rental income or other recurring business income

Use conservative assumptions. Overestimating these numbers is one of the biggest retirement planning mistakes investors make.

Step 4: Identify your true income gap

Now subtract your income offsets from your inflation-adjusted monthly need. This is your income gap—the actual shortfall your investments must cover to meet your lifestyle goals.

Lifestyle Need – Income Offsets = Income Gap

This number is the centerpiece of your retirement plan. It’s not just what you want your investments to make—it’s what they must make to buy back your time and freedom.

Step 5: Align your portfolio with the three-tier fortress plan

Once you know your true gap, you can build a portfolio that matches it—not based on hype or what’s trending, but on your actual income goals and timeline.

Use this structure:

  • Tier 1: Liquidity & reserves: Cash and equivalents for emergencies or transitions.
  • Tier 2: Income: Debt funds, preferred equity, cash-flowing real estate, and notes that generate reliable monthly income.
  • Tier 3: Growth: Long-term equity investments that build wealth over time, but may not cash flow early.

Debt funds can be especially powerful in Tier 2. With 6% to 10% target returns, short holding periods, and strong downside protection, they help bridge your gap while setting you up for growth.

Investor Archetypes I See Often

Every investor brings their own habits, fears, and decision-making styles to the table. Understanding your own investor archetype can help you avoid common pitfalls and design a portfolio strategy that fits you—not someone else.

The cautious cash holder

You’ve done the hard work of earning and saving, but now your money is sitting idle, losing value to inflation. You’re waiting for the “perfect” opportunity, but in the meantime, you’re missing the power of consistent compounding. 

Inserting a Tier 2 cash flow layer into your portfolio gives you a way to step into yield without sacrificing safety.

The equity overloader

You’ve gone all-in on upside. Maybe it’s multifamily syndications, startups, or stock market growth plays. 

The problem? You’re light on liquidity and cash flow, which makes your portfolio fragile, especially if distributions stop. 

The solution is to rebalance with income-producing assets that fill the gap while your growth deals mature.

The calendar-driven optimizer

You’ve mapped out a goal: retire in five to seven years, go part-time, and hit a net worth target. But the numbers don’t quite pencil. You might be close, but you’re missing timeline alignment between your cash needs and your portfolio’s payout schedule. 

Inserting a Tier 2 cash flow layer helps you lock in income streams to hit your date with confidence.

If any of these sound like you, it’s time to build a strategy that matches your lifestyle, risk tolerance, and retirement runway.

Final Thoughts

You now know more than 90% of investors do—not because you have more money, but because you have better clarity. You’ve looked beyond surface-level advice and started asking deeper, smarter questions about what your future really costs and how to engineer a plan to support it. 

You’ve learned:

  • Why most passive income goals are flawed (and dangerously oversimplified)
  • How to reverse-engineer your retirement need instead of relying on ballpark guesses
  • What your investments need to cover—not just in theory, but in practical, inflation-adjusted numbers
  • How to apply the Tier 2 Fortress Plan to bridge the income gap with confidence and flexibility

But knowing isn’t enough. Clarity is the spark—action is the fuel.

Most people read a blog, nod in agreement, and move on. But investors who achieve true freedom are the ones who take the next step: They build the plan, run the numbers, pressure-test the assumptions, and implement.

This is your opportunity to be one of them. If you want to pressure-test your numbers, see your 10-to-20-year income gap, and discuss a personalized plan, DM me.

Your freedom timeline starts now.

Protect your wealth legacy with an ironclad generational wealth plan

Taxes, insurance, interest, fees, bills…how can you acquire wealth, let alone pass it down, when there are major pitfalls at every turn? In Money for Tomorrow, Whitney will help you build an ironclad wealth plan so you can safeguard your hard-earned wealth and pass it on for generations to come.  



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This article is presented by Connect Invest.

Mid-term rentals—fully furnished rentals with contracts of anywhere between 30 days and nine months—were once seen as a very niche or experimental option for real estate investors. A new report is suggesting that they are becoming more and more mainstream, and a great way to mitigate some of the risks from rising vacancies in the traditional rental sector.

The report, put together by Landing, reveals several intriguing facts about how investors currently perceive mid-term rentals. Most see them as having serious portfolio-expanding potential, with 93% of respondents saying they’re actively seeking new revenue models, and 88% saying they would use mid-term rentals as a way to reduce the impact of vacancies. 

At the same time, many investors perceive major barriers to entry into this segment of the rental market. Nearly half (44%) aren’t completely certain about sufficient demand levels for mid-term rentals, while around a third (38% and 33%, respectively) anticipate problems with logistics or sourcing furnishings. 

Mid-Term Rentals: High Initial Costs, Higher Rewards

Without a doubt, the often substantial investment into high-quality furnishings and appliances is daunting for an investor used to traditional rentals, which are typically leased out unfurnished. Essentially, a mid-term landlord will have to combine the know-how of an Airbnb host with the savvy of an investor. 

Mid-term homes typically attract renters who are professionals. These types of rentals are very popular with remote workers and people required to travel frequently (think visiting academics, doctors, and nurses). 

This category of guest expects a higher standard of accommodation, which may include a comfortable mattress, a high-end washer/dryer combo, a branded coffee maker, etc. Basically, a mid-term renter wants what they’d get from a five-star-rated Airbnb experience, but with the ability to call the place “home” for a few months. 

Mid-term landlords do have some competition from hotel chains like Marriott and Hilton that are beginning to roll out mid-term rental studios of their own. However, what the hotel chains cannot provide is a home-like experience in a multifamily unit grounded within a local community. That’s where mid-term multifamily rentals have the edge: Someone renting an apartment for six months wants more of a homey, community-rooted experience in a beautiful neighborhood, as opposed to a slightly larger hotel room next to a roadside shopping plaza.

The good news for investors is that care taken in location selection and attention to detail really pays off here: Mid-term renters, as per the Landing report, are prepared to pay a premium for the right combination of convenience, comfort, and aesthetics: we’re talking $600-$800 more per month per unit compared to traditional rentals. 

Additionally, in the manner of Airbnb hosts, mid-term landlords must sort out the logistics of maintenance and cleaning between stays, often with a very tight turnaround. This typically means having a property manager on site or nearby. Poor logistics, where the transition between guests is not well-managed, leads to bad reviews and the home potentially standing vacant, which is even more costly for investors than vacancies in traditional units. 

Is a Mid-Term Rental Right for You?

Demand for mid-term rentals is growing rapidly, with an astonishing 94% increase for 30+ day bookings in the U.S. year over year in 2023, according to Key Data. This rental market segment is not yet oversaturated

If you are prepared by carefully researching your mid-term location and the heavy initial investment in operational logistics and higher-quality furnishings, you will be rewarded with impressive ROIs and, in many cases, zero vacancy. Rentals in this category that get everything right are often booked up continuously, providing a steady stream of income and improving your overall cash flow

There is one big but: If you do not have enough starting capital to create a competitive mid-term rental, it is best to stick to more traditional rentals or explore other real estate investing avenues. 

Where mid-term investors often fail is when they start trying to cut corners. That will cost you here in a way that just won’t with a traditional rental. A family settling in somewhere for five to 10 years will invest in their own comfortable mattress and might just replace the bathroom fixtures they dislike if it really matters. A mid-term renter will not—unmet expectations and perceived poor quality often lead to disputes, leases broken prematurely, and those dreaded bad reviews. 

How much money do you need to successfully furnish and operate a mid-term rental? Think in the ballpark of furnishing your own home, preferably on the more luxurious end of the spectrum of what you are prepared to pay. 

There’s Another Way to Invest

If that sounds like it’s too much right now, it probably is. Luckily, you do have other options, like Connect Invest short notes, which you can invest in with as little as $500. With investment durations of six, 12, or 24 months and interest yields of as high as 9%, you can experience the immediate financial growth enjoyed by mid-term rental investors—just without the hefty initial cost for you.



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Home prices are about to “bend”…but will they break? The 2026 housing market could be another year of a correction, but how low could we go?

Last week, we gave our mortgage rate predictions for 2026; this week, we’re focusing on home price forecasts. The housing market is stuck, and something needs to give. Americans can’t afford homes at these high prices, but with so many “locked-in” homeowners, where will the new supply come from? There are a few scenarios that could unfold, with different results that could greatly impact your buying, selling, and wealth-building.

This year feels…different. And while Dave shares his “most likely” scenario for home prices, two other scenarios (“upside” and “downside”) aren’t worth ruling out just yet. One “X factor” could shoot home prices high, with Americans rushing back to buy. But a downside risk could drive our correction even deeper. Dave describes the rental properties he’s looking to buy during this year of opportunity, along with the rules you must follow so you don’t get burned.

Dave:
Will home prices go up or down in 2026? We have seen a historic run of home price appreciation with values rising year after year, even as mortgage rates have remained high. But will that continue next year or will we see prices flatten or even decrease in the year to come? Today I’m giving you my 2026 home price forecast. Hey everyone, welcome to the BiggerPockets podcast. I’m Dave Meyer. Excited to have you here for what is simultaneously both my favorite and least favorite show of the year predictions about the next year. I genuinely enjoy and love the data analysis and research that goes into making these predictions, and since I started doing this back in 2022, I’ve been pretty accurately in calling the direction of the housing market, but at the same time, it’s a little nerve wracking and difficult to put these predictions out in public, especially this year when there’s less data available due to the recent government shutdown.
But despite those limitations, I choose to make these predictions for you every year because having an idea of where the market is heading, even if it’s not a hundred percent accurate as no forecast is, this is still crucial as an investor because you invest differently in a rapidly appreciating market than you do in a flat or a correcting market. And don’t get me wrong, you can invest in any kind of market, but you do need to plan accordingly, and that’s what I’ll help you do today. By the end of this episode, you’ll know where the market is likely to go, what things to watch for in case things start to change, and how to build your portfolio accordingly in 2026. Let’s do it. So making predictions about the housing market is difficult because the housing market is driven by so many different variables. On one side, you have all these things that impact demand, how many people want to buy homes.
These are things like demographics, immigration, cultural shifts, domestic migration, investor activity and so on. Then you have this whole other set of variables that impact the supply side, like the lock-in effect construction trends, a longstanding shortage in homes in the United States and so on. But to me, and I’ve been on this trend for a while now, affordability is the number one variable driving the market these days. Now, why this variable among all the other ones out there? Well, we have hit an absolute wall in terms of affordability. We are near 40 year lows. And by the way, if you haven’t heard this term before in context of the housing market, it just means how easily the average American can buy the average priced home, and that’s at 40 year lows. It hasn’t been since the early 19 that has been this difficult for the average American to buy homes.
Now this is really crucial because what has not changed is that people do want to buy homes. There is still desire to buy homes, but when you look at demand this economic term demand, it’s not just desire, it’s desire and the ability to pay for it, we still have the desire side. The issue is that most Americans just cannot afford it, and in my view, if that doesn’t change, if affordability doesn’t move, not much is going to change in the housing market, but if affordability improves, so will the market. So affordability, this key thing is actually made up of three individual variables. We have home prices. How much do homes actually cost? That should make sense. We have mortgage rates because the majority of homes are purchased with a mortgage, and so this matters a lot and we also have wages. How much are people earning?
So those are the three things and we’re going to break each of them down one by one. So the first factor in affordability is mortgage rates. I did a whole episode about that, but the TLDR was that, although I think they could come down a little on average next year, I don’t think they’re going to move that much. So I think it could modestly help affordability, but it’s probably not going to be the thing that really changes the housing market. The second one is wages and real wage growth can improve affordability. Real wages, if you haven’t heard this term, it’s basically just a question of are incomes rising faster than inflation? If the answer to that is yes, you have positive real wage growth, the answer to that is no. You have negative real wage growth. But luckily right now, one of the bright spots for the economy in recent years since 2022 or so is that we have had real wage growth wages in America.
Incomes are growing faster than inflation, which means your purchasing power is going up. I hope that will stay up, but I think it’s going to slow in the next year. We’ve seen inflation up to about 3%. The job market is definitely weakening. That reduces leverage and salary negotiations, and I think wage growth will slow. But the thing about the housing market and how this relates to our strategy as investors is that even in the best times wage growth takes time to really impact affordability. So although wage growth does really matter, it’s probably not a big factor in 26. So if rates aren’t going to change that much in my mind, in our base case and real wages are not going to impact affordability that much, does that mean that the housing market is doomed to have another year like we had this year where things are pretty slow and stuck maybe, but we still have one more variable, which is housing prices, which is why my base case for next year is for home prices to be flat or maybe down just modestly if you want some actual numbers.
I like to predict a range and a direction because I think as real estate investors, it actually hurts us to obsess about is it up 1% or 2%? I think we actually should just say, Hey, it’s up modestly, it’s down modestly, it’s flat this year. It’s going to go up a lot. There’s going to be a crash. Those kinds of directional indicators I think are what’s really important and what I see is that home prices in 2026 are going to be between negative 4% and positive 2%. You could call this flat if you want. I am personally leaning more towards the negative side right now. Again, we don’t have data from the last couple of months, but the way the trends are going, I think if I had to pick where we’ll be a year from now, I’d say negative one, negative 2% year over year growth.
So you might be surprised hearing me say this because all previous years I’ve said we’ve been flat or up. I genuinely believe that and that was what actually came to be. But this year I see that changing. I just want to say having these kinds of declines, this isn’t crazy. Seeing modest declines in prices isn’t a crash. It’s not even unusual. It is a normal correction and I should probably mention a buying opportunity. And that said, I am a little more pessimistic I think than other forecasters. I see Zillow at plus 1%. Some others are near flat, but most of them are modestly positive, but we’re all still generally in the same range. Honestly, being plus 1% minus 1%, it’s kind of flat. So that’s what most people are saying, and I think the takeaway here, whether you think it’s plus 1% or minus 2% is the same appreciation is going to be slow at best, it might be negative.
We can’t know right now with the little data that we have, but we have to not count on appreciation. I think that’s the main takeaway for us as real estate investors. Maybe we’ll get 1%. That would be great. Maybe you’ll be negative 1%. Honestly, whatever. If you’re counting for flat or you are not counting on appreciation when you’re underwriting your deals, you can still invest in this market. But that’s the main takeaway I want you all to have right now is that you should not assume you are going to get appreciation in 2026. So that’s my belief about what’s going on in terms of nominal prices. It’s going to get a little wonky, but stay with me. Nominal prices means not inflation adjusted. This is the price that you see on paper. This is the price that you see on Zillow. People are split on whether that’s going to be up a little bit down a little bit, but what almost every forecast that I believe in that I think is reputable, all of them agree that real prices are going to be negative.
And again, real in economic terms just means inflation adjusted. So every forecast I see believes that compared to inflation, home prices are going to go down. So even if prices on paper go up 1%, but inflation stays at 3%, then real home prices have declined 2% real prices are down. And even though I’m saying I think the most likely scenarios that nominal prices are down next year, I feel much more confident that real prices will be down in 2026. That much seems pretty clear to me. So that’s my base case. It’s what I’ve called the great stall in recent months have you’ve listened to the podcast and it’s still what I think is the highest probability of happening next year because affordability is too low. Rates will come down a little bit, I think, but not that much. Wages aren’t really going to help us one way or another, and prices, if they flatten or modestly decline, that’s how we get into the stall period where affordability gradually gets restored to the housing market.
That is the base case, but I should say that when I make these forecasts, I like to be honest about my confidence level and I just want to say that this year it is lower than previous years. Last year I felt really confident about what I said was going to happen. I was pretty accurate. This year, I think the great stall is probably a 50 ish, maybe 60% probability, which means that we have a 40 or 50% chance that something else could happen. And I’ll give you some alternative forecasts and predictions right after this break. Running your real estate business doesn’t have to feel like juggling five different tools with simply, you can pull motivated seller list, skip trace them instantly for free and reach out with calls or texts all from one streamlined platform, the real magic AI agents that answer inbound calls, follow up with prospects and even grade your conversations so you know where you stand. That means less time on busywork and more time closing deals. Start your free trial and lock in 50% off your first month at reim.com/biggerpockets. That’s R-E-S-I-M-P-L i.com/biggerpockets.
Welcome back to the BiggerPockets podcast. I’m Dave Meyer talking about home price predictions for 2026. Before the break, I shared with you my base case. It’s what I think is the most likely scenario to happen next year, and that’s having pretty flat or maybe modestly declining nominal home prices next year, and I think pretty confident that real home prices are going to go down unless one of these other X factors happen, which is what we’re about to talk about. So what else could happen in the housing market? To me, it still all comes down to affordability. As you’ll remember, my base case is saying affordability not going to change that much. It’s just going to gradually improve. But what happens if it goes up a ton? What if affordability gets way better? What if it goes down and actually get worse? Are there scenarios where affordability really does move more than my base case?
Yes, absolutely that is possible. I don’t think it’s the most likely thing to happen, but I want you to understand all of the different scenarios that could play out next year. And to me, there is one really big X factor that I am going to be keeping a very close eye on next year because it could cause what is known as a melt up, basically a huge surge in home pricing. So when I’m asking, could affordability get much better and send prices up, yes, there are a few routes to that, but to me, the most compelling one, the thing I’m going to watch most closely is something called quantitative easing. I went into this a lot in the episode predicting mortgage rates, so you can listen to that again, but if you missed it, it’s basically the Fed using one of its emergency tools to get mortgage rates down into the mid or low fives, maybe even lower, we don’t know, quantitative easing.
It’s basically they go out and frankly print money to create demand for mortgage backed securities and bonds. This pushes down yields that pushes down mortgage rates, and that could increase the demand in the housing market a lot, which could potentially push up prices. Hopefully that makes sense, right? Because I don’t believe regardless of what happens, the fed cuts rates a bunch of times. I still don’t think without quantitative easing, we are getting to the magic mortgage rate that we need in the United States to unlock the housing market research by Zillow. John Burns real estate, a couple different economics firms have all gone into this and they say that the magic number you need to get to get people off the sidelines to free up inventory to restore transaction volume to the market is like somewhere between five and five and a half percent. I just don’t see that happening next year without quantitative easing.
So the big question for 2026 in the housing market to me is will there be quantitative easing? And frankly, I think the chances of it happening are going up like every single week right now, the Trump administration has continued to prioritize affordability, particularly in the housing market, and as we’ve seen other parts of the economy start to falter and weaken like the labor market, I think the chance that the Fed dips into its toolbox to stimulate the economy continues to go up. Now, I don’t think this will happen right away in 2026. I think the earliest it will probably happen is in May because President Trump, he actually the other day said he already knows who he wants to name fed chair, but he can’t do that until Jerome Powell’s term is up in May of 2026. So that’s when we would probably seriously start looking for this to happen.
I don’t know if it’ll happen on day one, but it might happen sometime after May. So if that does happen, and I call this the upside case, you have your base case, which is what you think is most likely, is there a more positive case? That’s usually called an upside case. So my upside case for is we get quantitative easing, affordability improves, and then what? In that case, I think we see prices go up somewhere maybe between two and 6%, maybe up to seven if they really get rates down into the fives, maybe up to 7% if they get mortgage rates down in the fours. But that seems unlikely, and that’s what I see happening. Now, I know a lot of people are saying if there’s quantitative easing, if the fed cuts rates, we’re going to see an explosion in appreciation, they’re going to go up 10%.
Again during COVID, I don’t buy that personally because we know that when rates went up, not only did it drive down demand, but it drove down supply as well, right? That’s the lock-in effect. That’s why prices haven’t fallen because low affordability doesn’t just impact demand, it impacts supply at the same time, both of them are low right now. So in my opinion, if rates come down, yeah, it’s going to bring back demand, but it is also going to bring back supply. This will break the lock-in effect. So more people will be listing their properties for sale. More people will be looking to move, and so in this quantitative easing scenario that we’re talking about, I think the real winner is going to be transaction volume. We are going to see more homes bought and sold. That will help, and there will likely be upward pressure on prices, but not like COVID.
That is unusual. Seeing 10% appreciation might be a once in a lifetime thing that we don’t see again for generations. Of course, if they drop rates down to 2% or 3%, maybe that will happen, but I think that is not the case even if there’s quantitative easing. So I would expect positive appreciation in the scenario, good appreciation, really good for investors, but nothing crazy COVID. The other thing I should mention is that if this happens, it will probably happen amongst a backdrop of a slower economy. So people may not want to make huge economic decisions like buying a house when they’re fearful about their job. So we have to temper our expectations for what might happen if there is quantitative easing. Now, I told you my base case, I think that’s about a 50, 60% chance of happening. When we talk about the upside cases, quantitative easing, I think it’s getting more likely.
I actually think it’s about a 30% chance that this happens, and we’ll talk about how to account for that in your own investing in just a minute. But I also want to talk about downside because yes, there is a chance that affordability gets better. There is also a chance that affordability gets worse. How does that happen? Well, it probably happens if inflation stays high, right? If inflation goes up, it’s been going up four months in a row. It is nowhere near where we were in 20 21, 20 22. So people overuse the word hyperinflation a lot In this country, 3% is not hyperinflation. Four months in a row of growth is not hyperinflation. We are nowhere near that. But if inflation continues to creep up and mortgage rates go back up, I think there is more downside. I’m not saying that’s going to be a full on crash, but I think there’s more downside below one to 2%, right?
Could a crash happen and it really get bad? Sure, but on top of rates staying high, what we need to see is force selling, right? We’ve talked about this on the show, but the thing that takes a correction to a crash is when homeowners are no longer able to afford their mortgages and they’re forced to put their homes on the market to avoid foreclosure or as part of a foreclosure. Now, right now, delinquencies, they’re up a little bit, but they’re still very low by historic standards. They’re below pre pandemic levels. But what I’m saying is that there is no evidence that a crash is likely at this point. If people’s predictions about AI just destroying the labor market come true, and we see unemployment go up to 10%, yeah, there is a chance that there is a real estate crash, but that still remains unlikely.
I think even in this scenario, maybe prices drop five to 10%. I have a really hard time, even in a downside case, imagining more than a 10% drop in 2026. It seems just extremely unlikely to me. But the chance that we see 5% declines, 7% declines low, but I’d say it’s maybe a 10% chance because we just don’t know. There could be some black swan event that we don’t see coming that negatively impacts the housing market. We always have to remember, even though we can’t predict them, we have to remember that these things exist. That is part of being an investor, and we can’t just ignore them and pretend that they don’t happen. They are out there. So the question then is what do you do? How do you use this information where I’ve just said, yeah, I have a base case, but it’s maybe 50, 60% likelihood there’s a 40% chance that something totally different happens. How do you invest in that kind of market? I’ll tell you how right after this break.
Welcome back to the BiggerPockets podcast. I’m Dave Meyer, sharing with you my predictions and forecast for 2026. So far, I’ve told you about my base case, which is the great stall, the potential for quantitative easing to bring us into an upside case and a scenario where the labor market really breaks and inflation stays high, where maybe we have more downside. These are obviously three pretty different scenarios. So the question is how do you invest in an era of uncertainty and low confidence? How do we invest when there are multiple likely outcomes? There’s no right answer to this, but I will tell you how I am doing it. I am first and foremost preparing for the great stall. I think that is the most likely scenario, and the whole idea of making forecast is to not get paralyzed by all the different outcomes, but to have a plan but to remain somewhat flexible.
So I’m going to plan for the great stall because I know this might seem counterintuitive, but I actually think it could be a great time to buy, right? If we are in a scenario where prices are flat or going down on average, that means you can get great assets at a discount. Now, of course, in these kinds of scenarios, there’s also the risk that you might buy a property and the value of that property goes down more once you buy it. But in the great stall, the downside risk of that is not so great. And if you use tactics like buying deep or value add investing, you can mitigate that risk. Now seeing this opportunity, wanting to pursue that, at the same time I’m protecting myself against those possible declines in values. Like I said, I am going to underwrite super conservatively. I am being very, very picky right now.
I am being patient. I will only buy sure things, only buy excellent assets, things I would want to own, even if prices went down for a year or two after I bought them. Those things absolutely exist a hundred percent, and they’ll become easier to find and buy during the great stall. That is one of the benefits of this market is that more opportunity will exist, and by doing this, by pursuing great assets that I can get at a discount, but while simultaneously protecting myself against downside risk, I am also positioning myself to take advantage if that melt up happens. This is the way that you are actually planning for all three scenarios. You plan for flat, you protect against downside, but at the same time, you need to make sure that you are in the market in case the upside case happens to take advantage of the growth that could come from that.
This to me covers all the bases and it’s entirely possible. So let’s talk a little bit more just specifics about what this looks like. I am going to focus only on assets that I want to hold for a long time. I want to take a long term mindset. When I look at a property right now, I’m thinking, do I want to own this five years from now? Do I want to own it 10 years from now? And if the answer to that is no, I’m not really interested in it, even if I think it’s going to go up in the next couple of years, maybe there’s something great happening in the neighborhood or you’re buying it below comps. For me, I only want to buy things that I’m going to hold onto for a long time. That’s the number one thing. Number two, I want cashflow within a year to make sure I can hold onto it for five or 10 years.
Now, we’ve done a bunch of episodes about this recently. I really recommend you listen to them, but you need cashflow positive within the first year. One year is really not some magical number, but I basically mean at stabilization a lot of times now, when you go out and buy a property with current rents, the current condition of the property, it’s not going to cashflow well, if you’re going to do value add, if you’re going to upgrade them, if you’re going to make rents up to market rate, that’s when you need positive cashflow. If you can’t get to positive cashflow after stabilization, do not buy it. I know some people say appreciation’s more important. I don’t think so in this market. I just told you I don’t think appreciation’s coming next year. So make sure you get cashflow so you can hold onto that property so that when appreciation does come, because it will come back when it comes back that you’re in the market, you’re already making cashflow, you’re getting those tax benefits, you’re getting that amortization, you’re in the market and you’re comfortably holding onto them.
That’s what cashflow does for you. Next, I am adjusting my mindset to care less about short-term returns. Some people might disagree with this, that’s fine, but I am saying I still need cashflow. I still need the tax benefits. I still need amortization. So I’m not saying I’m getting no short-term returns. Those three things alone should probably beat the average of the s and p 500 by themselves without appreciation. So you can still get seven, 10, 12% without appreciation. Not to mention value add. You should still be able to do that, but by expectation for appreciation, market appreciation, where macroeconomic forces push up the price of housing, I have very low expectations for that for the next few years. I have low expectations for rent growth over the next few years. I could be wrong about that, but I don’t want to account on that. I don’t want to assume that because no one knows.
It’s super uncertain. I’m sorry. I know some people are going to say it’s going to go up, it’s coming back next year. We don’t know. And that’s okay. If you buy according to the way I’m telling you by being patient, by being picky, by having conservative estimates, when you underwrite your deals, you can still find great deals, but you have to follow an approach similar to this. I’m not saying you have to do everything exactly the same as me, but having this kind of mindset will help you in this era of investing, this is the approach that I am going to pursue. Now, I understand that some people are thinking Now, why not wait, if there is this flat period that we’re going to be in, why not? Wait? I mean, you could, but what if that upside case happens and you miss out on it?
That wouldn’t be good, right? The value of real estate is being in the market for a long time. So if there are good deals that produce cashflow that are going to produce a 7, 8, 10, 12% return as good as the average in the stock market in a bad year, if you’re going to get that in a bad year and you can buy properties that you want to own for 10 plus years, why would you not buy it now? You’ll still get cashflow. You’ll get amortization and tax benefits. You’ll be able to do value add and all of that, even if appreciation is slow. You’ll also start paying down your mortgage, which means that your benefits of amortization get better year after year after year, and you’ll be learning and growing. So to me, this approach gives you a little bit of everything. That’s how personally I am going to approach a year where there is frankly a lot of uncertainty.
As I’ve shared with you, I think the most probable outcome is the great stall. That’s what I’m planning for. But I just want to be honest with you. I don’t want to pretend I know everything. I want to be honest that there’s probably a 40% chance that something else happens, that there is a melt up, or 30% chance is my rough estimate of that, or a more significant client. I think that’s really only about a 10% chance, but it is still absolutely there. Even with all of that uncertainty, there are very proven ways to invest in real estate and to continue moving yourself along the path towards financial freedom. If you are willing to set your expectations appropriately, to be patient, to be conservative in your investing, that will benefit you over the long run and even in the next year. So that’s my approach, and hopefully this helps you as you start formulating your own strategy and tactics heading into 2026. That’s what we got for you guys today. I would love to hear your forecast. What do you think is most likely to happen in 2026? Please let me know in the comments. Thank you all so much for listening. We’ll see you next time.

 

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The saying “give the people what they want” resonates for a reason. In real estate, what people want—tenants, specifically—is low rent. 

That doesn’t always gel with landlords who want higher rents to cover expenses and turn a profit. However, as counterintuitive as it may seem, there are places where rents of $1,000 or less give both landlords and tenants some satisfaction.

In the South and Midwest, $1,000 a month is not uncommon, according to Zillow research. The data and analytics team at the listing giant found that 13 metro areas among the 100 largest in the U.S. have more than one-third of apartment listings priced below $1,000. That’s in direct contrast to popular East Coast markets such as New York, Boston, Washington, D.C., and Miami, where generally, less than 2% of apartments rent for under $1,000/month. 

However, in smaller metros like Wichita, Kansas, and McAllen, Texas, this number is over 50%. In Little Rock, Arkansas, Toledo, Ohio, Oklahoma City, and Tulsa, Oklahoma, it is nearly that. 

In Wichita, the $1,000 rents are made possible by the affordability of some houses. This two-bedroom, two-bathroom home, which needs minor repairs (the third bedroom is available for a flipper), is currently listed for $92,000—with an estimated PITI payment of $604/month.  

Another two-bedroom, one-bathroom home, in need of light rehab, is available for $80,000, with an estimated PITI payment of $525/month. Buying this type of home, fixing it up, and renting it out would allow an investor to quickly build a portfolio of cash-flowing rentals. If investors want to spend more money in exchange for higher rents, the potential selection options increase. 

However, there are many factors beyond low prices and rents to consider when determining the viability of a rental investment, as we’ll see.

Bucking the Trend

These smaller metros in the South and Midwest buck the trend for much of the nation, which is mired in an affordability crisis. 

“?The thing that I think we learned is that federal housing policy is stuck in a really weak equilibrium,” Jared Bernstein, who led President Joe Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers, told Ezra Klein of the New York Times. “There is just far too little asked of cities and states. They won’t do much to push back on the barriers that are blocking affordable housing.”

While the explosive rent growth of the last decade—rising 50% between 2015 and 2025 in many markets—is not debatable, neither is the rising cost of being a landlord. Insurance, utilities, and financing have also seen sharp spikes, eating into a landlord’s bottom line. According to property management platform Baseline, 85% of landlords increased rents in 2024 to offset operational expenses, with one-third of these raising them by 6% to 10%. 

All this makes the $1,000 rental scenario all the more astounding. It’s like time-traveling to a bygone era.

People Are Moving Because of Housing Costs

The cost of housing is the primary reason Americans move, according to MoveBuddha. Unsurprisingly, they’re heading to the Midwest or South, making it a good place for real estate investors with limited budgets who want to start building their portfolios.

Some of MoveBuddha’s findings are as follows:

States

  • In 2025, South Carolina had twice as many people moving there as leaving.
  • Some states were markedly up on 2024’s stats as far as inbound searches go. Wisconsin (+79%), Mississippi (+55%), and Minnesota (+40%) were among the most prominent.
  • In terms of interest in total inbound migration, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, and Tennessee had the highest online search volume.

Cities

  • The top city for moves in 2025 is Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, with 2.41 inbound moves for every outbound one, fueled by Baby Boomer retirement interest.
  • Many of the inbound cities are mid-sized or retirement-friendly areas, with smaller, affordable communities.

Strategies for Investors to Build a Low-Cost, Low-Rent Investment Portfolio

Target the right markets

This might seem obvious. However, it’s easy to be led astray. Use the following to help in your research:

  • Median rents below $1,200
  • Steady wage growth
  • High renter populations
  • A surplus or stabilizing supply of homes

Examples: 

  • Midwest college towns
  • Secondary Sunbelt metros
  • Rural-adjacent Southern metros
  • Older inner-ring suburbs 

Use data tools like:

Buy below replacement costs, and don’t over-renovate

Affordable rentals work best when you are competing with land costs higher than what you will pay. The following are good examples:

  • Older single-family homes
  • Small duplexes and triplexes
  • “Ugly” but structurally sound properties
  • Houses requiring a rehab rather than a complete renovation
  • If you buy low, avoid overspending on renovation so you can still cash flow. “Low cost,” “durable,” and “practical” are keywords.

Research operating costs

Low-priced homes are not much use if they come with high property taxes and insurance. Sometimes homes are priced low for a reason: No one is buying them. 

Don’t believe the agent or wholesaler’s hype. Do your own research.

Screen for stability

Just because your rents are low doesn’t mean you have to be in a sketchy neighborhood, relying on increasingly imperiled government programs for your rental incomes. Plenty of rock-solid tenants live in working-class neighborhoods. Look for those who prioritize affordability and stability, as they are likely to stick around, and you avoid turnover churn. The returns might not be earth-shattering, but over time, these properties can be winners.

A reliable tenant pool can come from:

  • Teachers
  • Hospital staff
  • Government workers
  • Long-term service sector employees
  • Seniors on fixed incomes

Let rents catch inflation

Even if you start renting for below $1,000, modest 2% to 4% annual increases, coupled with low vacancy, stable tenants, and basic maintenance, can yield strong long-term growth when tax advantages, debt paydown, and appreciation are factored in. These workhorse properties have made many investors wealthy over time.         

Final Thoughts

All this said, just because a city offers low housing costs and rents doesn’t automatically mean you should invest there. Case in point: Wichita, Kansas, which this year had more people leaving than coming in, according to MoveBuddha data, despite being highlighted by Zillow Research.

So, in determining a good place to invest, do an overall analysis that factors in house prices, rents, net population inflows and outflows, and expenses. Analyze data regarding:

  • Jobs
  • Insurance
  • The attraction for retirees (low state income taxes, warm weather, community activities and amenities, and space—often found outside larger metro areas)
  • Development projects
  • Crime stats
  • Transportation





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This article is presented by Connect Invest.

The multifamily real estate market has, without a doubt, been through some tough times over the past few years. Rising interest rates and a falling demand following a multifamily building boom compounded to make multifamily less of a safe investment than it once was. 

However, according to the most recent CBRE Multifamily Underwriting Survey, there are signs that confidence is returning to this segment of the real estate market. 

What is behind the optimistic sentiment uptick, and should this confidence translate into multifamily investment action if you’ve erred on the side of caution so far?

Rate Cuts + Expected Surge in Renters = Improved Buyer Sentiment

The latest federal interest rate cuts in September and October are a major factor in the survey’s optimistic prognosis. In Q3, 64% of core-asset buyers expressed a positive outlook, as opposed to just 57% in Q2. Value-add buyers had the highest levels of confidence at 70%, up from 62% in Q2. 

Lower interest rates make any real estate investment more viable, and they are particularly helpful to investors who cannot rely on sharp rental growth, as is the case in the current climate. Investors are feeling confident despite the fact that underwriting assumptions of annual asking rent growth for value-add properties actually decreased in Q3, to 3.2%. 

Rent growth deceleration is by now a stable trend. Internal rate of return (IRR) targets have been going down for value-add assets for seven consecutive quarters. For core assets, underwriting rental growth predictions for the next three years are at a modest 2.8%. 

Overall, the actual market figures are pretty stable, with mostly unremarkable variations in both going-in and exit cap rates

The point is that the direction is positive, with the average multifamily going-in rate showing a decrease of two basis points. The possibility of another interest rate cut in December is, without a doubt, keeping the mood buoyant in anticipation of further incremental cap rate compression.

Southern Demographics Boosting Investor Confidence

Interest rates, as much of an immediate relief as they are, do not sway markets alone. So, what’s keeping buyer sentiment buoyant? 

For one, those positive sentiment percentages are boosted by a trend-bucking increase in IRR targets for core assets in Sunbelt markets, notably in places like Dallas and Austin—the very locations that have experienced the most dramatic ups and downs in their respective multifamily sectors over the past few years. An unprecedented increase in demand following the much-documented “Sunbelt Surge” resulted in a construction boom, which eventually dampened demand (and rental prices). 

Why, then, despite continued rental growth deceleration and increased construction, are investors feeling positive? Because it now appears that the localized construction booms have not fixed the housing shortage in these—or any other—regions. 

According to JLL, there is a shortage of 3.5 million housing units in the U.S. This, combined with an unprecedentedly high (and rising) cost of homeownership, means that many would-be homeowners will remain renters in 2026. This is causing the uptick in multifamily investor confidence.

Paradoxically, the new multifamily construction that has decelerated rental growth has also made renting a more affordable and therefore attractive option for many people. Rather than buying an overly expensive home with an exorbitant mortgage (interest rates are still high), many renters are expected to renew their leases instead. 

Investors are, correctly, banking not on sharp rental growth, but on steady demand. And current demographic statistics are showing that the South in particular, is experiencing a population boom, with suburban Dallas emerging as the fastest-growing city in 2024. 

Demographics are a long game, but investors cannot ignore the shorter-term moving trends that can unfold over a few short years—as was notably the case with the boom-and-bust fate of Austin during the past five years. Currently, people are moving South more than to other U.S. regions, but we need to be more specific here: Renters are moving not just anywhere in the South, but to attractive job hubs like Miami and Dallas. 

Bidding Activity Also Up

Rising investor confidence is reflected not just in percentages of positive sentiment but also in bidding activity, which is showing an uptick, especially in the multifamily sector, according to JLL’s Global Bid Intensity Index.

“As capital deployment accelerated during the third quarter, institutional investors are signaling increased confidence in the market, even as uncertainty persists,” said Richard Bloxam, CEO of capital markets at JLL, in a press release. “We expect business confidence will continue to improve and pave the way for continued capital flow growth into 2026.”

Get In on These Trends With Connect Invest

Want to make the most of multifamily real estate investing while mitigating some of those market uncertainties? When you invest with Connect Invest, you’re investing in high-yield, short-term investments across a diversified portfolio of residential and commercial real estate. That way, you can maximize the advantage from current market trends—without compromising your long-term portfolio health.



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This article is presented by Connect Invest.

“Predictable” isn’t exactly the most exciting qualifier for a real estate market, but it’s the exact word that investors in the multifamily sector have been longing to hear for years. The era of huge market upheavals brought by the pandemic seems to be finally, truly over, with rent growth and supply-and-demand balance returning to pre-pandemic patterns. 

It can be difficult to accept, but the fact is that the 2% rent growth rate by 2027—a prediction from Yardi Matrix executives Jeff Adler and Paul Fiorilla—is in line with normal, pre-pandemic rates. In fact, this is what the real estate market should look like. Here’s why.

Why “Slow But Stable” Isn’t a Bad Thing

The double-digit growth rates of 2021 will not return again; these were a historical anomaly brought about by a singular convergence of factors, namely: 

  • Pent-up demand from people who could not buy a home during lockdowns.
  • An unprecedented housing shortage caused by people not selling, and a lack of building supplies disrupting new construction.
  • Brand-new migration patterns creating housing hot spots.

None of these conditions were ever meant to last, but many investors understandably were building their business strategy around these anomalous market spikes. For a few years, an investment plan along the lines of “This metro area has the highest rental growth right now” could deliver impressive short-term results. 

What was wrong with this picture? Nothing, on the surface of it, in terms of aligning your strategy with market conditions. But there was another variable aside from rental growth fluctuations that began creating an imbalance: construction. 

Construction booms inevitably cooled red-hot markets, most notably Austin’s, which “went from red-hot to best avoided in the blink of an eye,” according to Bloomberg, as a direct result of its post-pandemic-era construction surge.

It seems like there’s nothing positive here, but there is. 

We know that new construction lowers the overall cost of housing across a metro area, including old inventory. This kick-starts a game of musical chairs of sorts: An overall fall in home prices means that some existing tenants will move out and become homeowners. Landlords sitting on empty units then often have to lower rents in order to fill vacancies, meaning that lower-income residents can move in. Theoretically, this can continue indefinitely. 

To succeed long term, an investor needs a very different landscape: Healthy, steady demand for rental units in areas where the overall ratio of homeowners to renters is unlikely to change dramatically any time soon. To put it simply, you want an area where people are comfortable enough renting and are, say, five to 10 years away from buying a home. This can change much faster in boom-and-bust areas, where a surplus of new construction suddenly makes homes more affordable and increases vacancies at an unusual rate.

Now that construction and demand are coming into alignment, as per the Yardi report, investors can focus on refining more traditional-looking business plans and investing in areas with stable, predictable renter population movements rather than in migratory spikes. You might only be looking at 2% rent growth for the foreseeable future, but you’re also not looking at having to deal with unexpected multiunit vacancies. 

What Investors Need to Think About in 2026 and Beyond

According to the Yardi report, as markets return to normal, investors will need to adjust their strategy. What that looks like in practice is an emphasis on cost control in existing markets, as opposed to scouting out new ones. 

The biggest challenge investors will face is shrinking margins amid high operational costs, especially insurance. Testing prospective investment locations for stable occupancy rates will be paramount. According to CRE, “Household formation, while soft in the near term, is expected to rebound mid-decade, offering a firmer demand base just as new inventory comes online.” 

The questions will be: Where do these newly formed households want to stay until (and if) they are in a position to buy? Where do families renew their leases consistently, instead of passing through and moving on? 

In many ways, investors will have to go back to the strategy drawing board, performing meticulous research into each potential lead and assuming that margins will be very tight. 

Another Investment Option

Don’t want to deal with all that? You have other options. For example, you can invest in real estate short notes with Connect Invest. Essentially, you’ll be investing in a diversified portfolio of real estate at every stage of construction: no need to worry about picking the right metro area! 

What’s even better is you can lock in at 7.5%-9% interest earned on your investment, with a minimum investment amount of as little as $500. 

You can invest for a period of six, 12, or 24 months, which mitigates the risk from that ever-present potential of market shifts. It’s a great way to dip your toes in the water and find out if real estate investing can work for you without having to do all that work yourself.



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Last weekend, wagering sites nearly doubled their expectations for the Trump-aligned election of National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett as the new Federal Reserve chairman. 

The stakes for real estate investors could not be more impactful, as the Federal Reserve chair is effectively the person who helps determine U.S. mortgage rates and, subsequently, market demand. Jerome Powell’s term is scheduled to end in May 2026, with the incoming chairman expected to take a decisively dovish position on rates. 

The expectation is that the incoming chairman will align with the Trump administration on (potentially dramatically) lower rates to boost the economy, provide affordability relief, and unlock housing. A shift to a low-rate Fed policy will make mortgage money cheaper, directly increasing buyer demand, unlocking inventory, and potentially launching a new cycle of real estate appreciation

How a Dovish Chair Makes Borrowing Cheaper

Short-term rate action

Fed rate cuts are the most visible action. The new chair will push for lower short-term lending rates for banks, known as the federal funds rate—possibly via larger-than-anticipated cuts (0.5%-0.75% per meeting), or done more rapidly than market expectations.

Market signaling

The chair’s words can matter more than actions. If in the first Fed meetings, Hassett signals to lenders that long-term rates are coming down, expect lenders to adjust accordingly. This weekend, we already saw the 10-year Treasury touch 4%. 

The money supply (boosting liquidity) ending quantitative tightening (QT)

Even under Powell’s tenure, the Fed is scheduled to stop tightening this December. This has a direct impact on mortgage bonds and mortgage rates (the 10-Year Treasury yield), causing 30-year fixed rates to drop.

Downstream Effects on Homeowners and Residential Real Estate

Buying power improves with lower 30-year fixed rates by reducing monthly payments, allowing buyers to qualify for larger loans, and increasing the buyer pool. Combined with dramatically higher 2026 conventional loan rates, the stage is set for a potentially dynamic real estate market over the next three years. 

Inventory and home prices: The rate lock unlocked

Millions of existing homeowners (including myself) paying “higher” interest rates will have the chance to refinance, freeing up household cash flow and investors to expand their portfolios.  Lower rates encourage homeowners, who have been “locked” into low pandemic-era mortgages, to finally sell and move, boosting market inventory. In turn, increased demand from both first-time homebuyers and “unlocked” movers will likely put upward pressure on prices. 

Impacts on Real Estate Investors: Property Valuation and Returns

Put simply: When interest rates fall, real estate becomes more valuable, leading to higher sale prices when investors exit a deal. If inventory doesn’t rise as quickly as demand, bidding wars could return by the end of summer.

Debt cost vs. property yield

Borrowing costs dropping below the property’s potential income makes every deal more attractive. Dramatically lower rates could have a dramatic effect on commercial and multifamily markets that have struggled in a “higher for longer” environment. 

Strategies for Acquirers and Developers

  • Maximizing leverage: Buy-and-hold investors can lower debt obligations and improve cash flows.
  • Easier loan qualification: Lower debt obligations improve the debt service coverage ratio (DSCR), making it easier to secure financing for investment properties. Could this be why Rocket Pro recently entered the DSCR space? 
  • Construction: Developers get cheaper construction loans and the opportunity to refinance maturing debts, which could add to projects and inventory supply. 

Navigating a Low-Rate Environment

A lower-rate environment created by a dovish Fed means it’s time for real estate investors to prepare for increased competition and higher valuations. The biggest risk is that aggressive rate cuts bring back high inflation, which would force the Fed to quickly hike rates again. Investors must monitor inflation data closely. 

Action steps:  

  • Get ready to buy: Line up your financing and target markets, anticipating lower rates. 
  • Lock in debt: If you own or buy, prioritize locking in long-term fixed rates to protect yourself from future rate volatility.

Final Thoughts

I have been saying for some time that the Trump administration and the “Commander & Developer in Chief” will prioritize lower rates—potentially much lower than anyone expects. Remember, it was during Trump’s first term that rates hit historic lows during the COVID-19 pandemic. 

How low could mortgage rates go? We think 30-year rates with a four in the front could be possible by mid-to-late 2027.



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See if you can answer these questions right now: How much money do you want to make every month? When do you (realistically) want to retire? How much real estate will it take to get there? And which strategy will actually get you to the finish line?

If you can’t answer all four of those questions, you’re like 99% of real estate investors—buying properties just to “build wealth.” While “building wealth” is worth striving for, it’s not actually a true goal. It’s what keeps investors working longer, unsure of when or if they’ve “made it” or how much farther they have to go.

If you do one thing before 2026, do this: define your financial goals. Today, Dave shows you exactly how to do that. You’ll learn the formula to calculate your financial freedom number, how much real estate you’ll need, how long it will take, the one- and three-year goals you should set now, and the best real estate strategies for your situation.

You could be retired in under 10 years if you start in 2026. What are you waiting for?

Dave:
You’re probably ignoring the single most important part of your investing strategy. It’s fun to talk about door count and markets and strategies, but what are your goals? Why are you putting your time and money into real estate in the first place? If you can’t answer that question with a clear vision of where you want to go, nothing else really matters. So today I’m going to help you set your financial goals for 2026 so you can find better deals, see better returns, and accelerate your path to financial freedom. Hey everyone. Welcome to the BiggerPockets podcast. I’m Dave Meyer. Thank you all so much for being here. I want to ask you all a question to start this episode, and I want you to be honest. How many of you actually have a specific financial goal? I’m not just talking about, oh, I want to be financial free.
I’m talking specifically like I want $10,000 a month in cashflow by 2035. How many of you have that level of goal? I think if we’re all being honest with each other, it’s like basically none of us, maybe 2% of you have actually gone out and done this, and that’s okay. It took me probably eight years of investing in real estate and being really into personal finance before I figured out that I really mattered whether or not I had a financial goal, and that might be okay at the beginning of your investing career to be perfectly honest. But if you want to build a portfolio of low risk, high upside investments over a sustained period of time, you need to have a plan. You need to have a strategy, and in order to have that, you need to have good goals. So today what we’re going to do is talk about goal setting and how to do it the right way.
I’m going to break this down into three really actionable parts and you all should just follow along. I’m actually going to break out the whiteboard and show you some really simple tools like actual things that you could do either as you’re listening or later today when you go home, go and actually do this so that you have these financial goals, especially as we head into a new year, you can have these specific goals and build a plan backwards from those goals. The three parts we’re going to go over are first the long-term goal, and this is the most important. We’re going to spend most of our time here figuring out why you’re doing this in the first place. Where do you want to be 10 years from now, 15 years, 20 years? I know everyone has this vague notion of being wealthier or having more time.
That’s not good enough. What you need is a specific goal, and I’m going to help you get that today. The second part is defining a one year goal because once you’ve figured out the long-term vision, then you need to sort of back into more achievable, more actionable things that you could do in the next year. And then part three is a three year vision, so we’re going to do long-term big picture, then one year, then three years, and as you’ll see, even though very few people have actually done this, it’s really not hard. By the end of this podcast episode, you’re going to have these three numbers and I promise you it will help you a ton as you formulate your strategy as an investor. So let’s get into it. First up, we’re going to be talking about our long-term financial goals, and there’s basically two different questions that I want you all to answer by the end of this section here.
Number one, how much money do you want? And number two, this is the one that people miss is when do you want it? Bach? The key to doing this the right way is finding something that is tough. You want to be a little bit uncomfortable. You don’t want to be, oh, for sure I’m going to be able to hit that number, but you want to feel like if I execute my plan well, if I’m diligent, if I work hard, I’m going to be able to hit that number. That’s sort of the magic balance that you’re looking for here. So these are the first concepts. The first question is how much do you want to have? And the second question that we want to answer here is how long, right? Those were the two things I said. So let’s start with how much. There’s different ways that people can answer this.
You could answer this through net worth. You can answer it through cashflow through your portfolio. For me, the way that I think about it is the after tax money that I need to support my lifestyle. So I recommend that people think about it this way after tax income because all of us are going to be taxed differently. Real estate has a lot of tax advantages, so if you’re using real estate for a lot of your income, you might not need to earn as much as you would in a normal job because you’re going to have those tax advantages, which is why I prefer this after tax income thought. Now, for those of you who don’t have a budget or don’t really understand what you’re spending is right now, that’s probably a good place to start. I would recommend you have a budget or go onto your banking app.
It doesn’t need to be super complicated. Most people, if you have online banking, go and look at your online banking and figure out what your average spend is per month, and this is a great place to start when you’re figuring out what you want your income to be, and I want to be clear that you can’t just make this number up. You could, but I don’t recommend it. It would be easy to just say again, I want $30,000 a month in after tax income. That’s a ton of money, and maybe you do aspire to that, and if you’ve thought about this hard and come up to that number, that is okay, but there is risk in overshooting here because if you say 30,000 and all you need is 20,000, that means you might work in a job or build your portfolio longer than you actually need to.
We want to find the balance of getting what we want out of our lifestyle and making the most time for ourselves. And so if you are working unnecessarily to achieve an income that you don’t actually need, that kind of goes against the purpose. And so I really recommend just starting rooted in what you’re actually doing today. Now, I expect for some people who are listening and watching the podcast right now, they might be okay with their current income. If you are established, you like your lifestyle, that’s really all you have to do is figure out your budget and average spend. If you’re comfortable staying at this level, if you are not and you want to expand your lifestyle in some way, I would just say try and be specific about that. So if your budget right now is $5,000 a month, I wouldn’t just randomly say $10,000.
I would just spend 20 minutes thinking about the things that you would want that you don’t have now, and how much more that costs. It’s really not that hard. I actually have as part of my book start with strategy. There’s a Excel file that goes through this and that actually helps you calculate these numbers. So you can do that or you could just do it on a piece of paper. Honestly, it’s not that hard. So I’m going to assume that our budget and what we want is $7,500 per month, but there is one more advanced move that we need to do, right? We want $7,500 a month in today’s dollars, and I know this is going to get a little bit nerdy, but this is I think truly the number one mistake people make in setting their financial goals is not accounting for inflation. This is a big picture stat, but the value of your dollar on average gets cut in half every 30 years.
Just think about that for a second. So if you are near my age, I’m 38 years old, I probably will be retired at 68, hopefully in 30 years, if I was making $10,000 a month, it would be the equivalent of having $5,000 a month today. Now, this is a big problem that a lot of people face in retirement, and I don’t want all of you to face that problem, so I want you to adjust upward. Your goal to account for inflation. For us in our example here that we’re following along with our goal is going to be $10,000 per month. We’re going to adjust up for inflation from 7,500 because we want to make sure that our spending power stays at that $7,500 level well into the future, and in the future, you’re likely to need at least $10,000 to be able to do that.
I’m not doing this in a very precise way. I’m doing $10,000 because that’s a nice round number, but adjust upward your goal to account for inflation. That’s the main thing here. So that’s step one in figuring out how much you need is what actually you need to fund your lifestyle. Step two is going to come where we figure out what our equity goal is in our real estate. So we need a real estate equity goal because even though the way that you’re going to replace your income long-term is through cashflow, I personally believe that it’s easier to think about this by thinking about how much equity you actually need. Now, I’m not one of those people who think cashflow is important. I only buy deals that cashflow, but I am not focused on cashflow early in my career because what I believe and what I know based on all of the analysis I do is that the best way to have cashflow later in your investing career is to have a lot of equity.
Once you have equity, once you have money, cashflow is super easy. So I’m going to extrapolate our goal out from we had $10,000 a month, but for this calculation, we need to do annual. So what I’m going to do is say that we want $120,000 per year in cashflow, and then the next thing I need to look at is what cash on cash return do I realistically believe that I can get 20 years from now? And I know that’s hard to project, but it’s going to be somewhere between five and 8%. I’ll tell you that that’s the number you should be picking. I like 6%. I think we’ll be able to do better than 5%, eight percent’s a little bit higher. This is not deals that you’ve held onto for a long time saying you can go out and buy off the MLS. You can buy an apartment building and get this number.
This is equivalent to what anyone who’s familiar with commercial real estate would call a cap rate. And so I believe 20 years from now, I’m still going to be able to buy six caps and that’s a 6% cash on cash return. So all I’m going to do is divide my annual goal of 120,000 by a 6% cash on cash return. And what I know from that is that I will need $2 million in equity to be sure pretty much a hundred percent sure that I could get the cashflow I need at the end of the day. So for me, this becomes my goal as a real estate investor. I’m sitting here in 2025 thinking, how do I get $2 million in equity by the time I want to retire? This is obviously just one example. If you said you wanted, I don’t know, $150,000 a year in income, but you’re a little bit more conservative and you think that you could only get a 5% cash on cash return, then you’re going to need $3 million for example in equity.
Or if you only need a hundred thousand dollars and you’re more confident that you’re going to be able to get an 8% cash on cash return, what does that come out to be? That’s $1.25 million. Whatever these numbers are for you, this is the financial goal I want you all to come up with. How much equity does your portfolio need to be worth? I’m not saying the value of your properties. That is not what I’m saying. It’s the equity you actually own in those properties. That’s what you need to be calculating. So if it’s $2 million, $3 million, $1 million doesn’t matter, figure this out for yourself. Okay, so now we have answered question number one. Remember we started by saying how much do you need and how long? We now know how much we’re going to use $2 million as our example, and we’re going to get to how long now, which is what we call your time horizon, and this is super important thing that not a lot of people think about, but your time horizon is really going to dictate your investing strategy. I’m going to explain that more right after this quick break. This week’s bigger news is brought to you by the Fundrise Flagship Fund, invest in private market real estate with the Fundrise Flagship fund. Check out fundrise.com/pockets to learn more.
Welcome back to the BiggerPockets podcast. I’m Dave Meyer going through how to set good quality financial goals that will help you formulate a great investing strategy heading into 2026 and honestly for the rest of your investing career. Before the break, we talked about just needing to know how much you want and I recommend thinking about that in terms of equity. There’s a couple of steps to that. As a reminder, figure out the after tax income that you want. Adjust it for inflation, divide it by the cap rate you think you can get, and that’s going to get you that equity number that you want. We’re going to be using $2 million as an example. Now the question then becomes how long, and this one is a little bit more of an art than a science because most people will just say ASAP, right? You want to be retired in three years or five years or seven years, and for some people that might be realistic if you were just trying to replace your income without any additional lifestyle enhancements, I would say that the average there is eight to 12 years, you could probably replace your income assuming that you have enough capital to buy your first property today.
So I think a lot of people are in that situation, so eight to 12 years could be a good timeframe. That’s for doing pretty plain vanilla kinds of deals. If you’re willing to be a little more active, maybe take on a little bit more risk, which we’re going to talk about in a little bit. You can speed up that timeline, but for most people, I think we’re going to be talking about something around 8, 10, 15 years and they might feel like a long time, but I have been doing this for 15 years and I promise you it is really not that bad and it is so worth it. Taking 15 years to achieve financial freedom is amazing. I am sorry that people on the internet lie and say that they do this in three to five years. Maybe some of them do, but I promise you the average person, it takes 10 to 15 years unless you want to take on a lot of risk or you’re pouring 60 hours a week into this business, 10 to 15 years, totally doable.
You could probably do it in eight to seven if you’re going to be even a little bit active in your portfolio. So just think about that for yourself, where you’re starting out and where you want to get to. I’m going to just assume for the purposes of our example that we’re going to start with, let’s call it $75,000 in savings that we can invest today and that we want to retire within 15 years. Now, I understand that some people want to do it faster, and that is definitely possible, and this is the time to dictate that. If you want to go faster, you need one of a few things to happen. One, you need to be starting with a lot of money. I know that sounds really silly, but it’s true. If you have a million dollars, you’re probably going to be able to do it pretty fast.
That’s a lot of money to start with. The second thing you could do is try and increase your income. I did this by deciding to go to state school and go back to college for a master’s degree and try and increase my income to accelerate my financial freedom through real estate by making more in my day job. Some people might want to do that. The third option is to do it through real estate. And I know this is a very common question on here, but it’s not required. But if you think that you could go and flip houses and make a ton of money, that might be something to consider. If you think you can wholesale in addition to your job or you can wholesale and make more money than you do today, also a decent option. If you think that you would be a great real estate agent and would be able to make more money than your current job, that’s another way that you can do it too.
And then the fourth option is to do value add real estate investing. And so that would be, I think for the majority of people listening to this podcast, probably doing something like the Burr method because that’s going to allow you to invest in relatively safe rental properties but also build equity at the same time. And so just think about which, if any of those things you want to do, if you don’t want to do renovations, you don’t want to change your job and you’re kind of just want to coast, that’s totally fine, but it’s going to take you probably 10 to 15 years if you want to shorten that to let’s call it seven to 10 years. Think about which of those things you can realistically do. Can you get more income or are you willing to put in the time and effort into doing things like the bur method to grow your equity faster?
For the purposes of our example, I’m going to say that we have $75,000 to invest today and that we’re going to shoot for, let’s call it a 12 year time horizon. So that’s what we got. That is step one of our long-term goal. That’s all it takes. I’m blabbing about and explaining this, and we did this in like 15 minutes so you can do this in your own time. Take 10, 15, 20 minutes and figure this out. We know now that our goal as a real estate investor, the thing we need to be focusing on when we set our tactics, when we pick what deals to do, what markets to invest in, our goal is to have $2 million in equity in 12 years. That’s the goal that you need to set, and if you have this, I promise you, everything is going to get so much easier.
It sounds so simple and it is, but everything will get easier if you start to think about your portfolio in this way. Now, before we move on to the one year goal, which we’re going to do in a minute, just do a gut check and make sure that this sounds reasonable. If you want to do the math, you could do that. I would recommend that, but if your goal is like, I need $5 million in five years and I’m starting with 50 grand, I’m sorry, that’s just not going to work. If you are a rental property investor, you can expect your money to compound at somewhere between 10 and 25% depending on how involved you want to be. If you’re just buying regular deals, 10% is probably 12% is probably where you’re going to be. If you’re going to do the burr, you could probably do 20, 25, maybe 30%, and so think about that and see if you’re within that realm of possibility.
If your goal is way bigger and you’re going to need to compound at 50 or 60 or 70%, honestly, you can do that, but you’re going to have to flip houses. It’s the only way you can earn those kinds of returns in real estate and that comes with risk and a lot of time that doesn’t make it wrong, but that’s how you’re going to have to do that. So think to yourself, is it worth it to me to do flipping and take on more risk and commit more time, or should I just back out my goal a couple of years and take on less risky, less time intensive kinds of strategies? That’s totally up to you, but just think about that before we move on to our one year goal. So that’s step one of your financial goal, and then we’re going to move on to our one year goal because obviously having that 12 year vision isn’t good enough.
You need to start now backing into what you have to achieve this year to make sure that you’re on track for year two, for year three through year four and so on. The place that you need to start for your one year goal is by doing something what I would call a resource audit, and this sounds fancy and corporate, but it’s not. It’s just a question of how much time do you have to commit to real estate in the coming year and how much money? Everything comes down to these two questions. Our first year goal was what amount do you want in what timeframe? Our one year goal is going to come down to those same sort of variables that we’re dealing with. Now, we already answered the question for our example, which is $75,000, but for all of you out there, I really, really encourage you if you haven’t done this yet, think about what are your investible assets right now, right?
Investible assets are not your total net worth. It’s how much money you can responsibly put into real estate today. So let’s just use an example and say you have $50,000 saved up. You shouldn’t invest all of that. You can’t invest all of that because budgeting experts say you need three to six months of emergency funds to weather a storm. We’re going into a difficult economic period I believe, and so you probably want six months of emergency funds, and if you have kids, that might be even longer. That’s up to you, but you need to set aside some money. So it’s not just the number in your bank account, that’s not your investible assets. What you need to figure out is how much money you can responsibly put into real estate. So figure that out for yourself. But for our example here today, we’re going to use $75,000 as an example.
Now, time is another really important variable here because again, if I wanted to grow as quickly as possible, I would flip houses. That is the best way to earn a lot of money quickly in real estate, but I don’t have that time and in the example that we’re going to use is going to say we don’t have that time. We though are willing to put in, let’s call it 10 hours per week for real estate to me, 10 hours a week, you’re going to be able to do a lot in real estate investing. You’re going to be able to find great deals, you’re going to be able to do value add, you’re going to be able to to do a lot of things that you might want to do to maximize the early years of your investing or whatever the next years of your investing if you put in 10 hours a week.
And so figure that out. Honestly, for yourself though, if you don’t have 10 hours a week, be honest about that because if you buy a deal that requires 10 hours a week of a commitment and you only have five, you’re not going to operate that deal. Well, and this is exactly why you have to go through this process because I see so many investors going out there and just buying whatever deal. They buy a short-term rental and they don’t have a lot of time to furnish it, and then it just winds up being kind of a crappy short-term rental and it doesn’t perform, and then what’s the point of doing that in the first place? So be honest with yourself about how much time you’re going to be able to commit because that’s how we’re going to pick what deals that you should be doing in the next couple of years.
So for me, if I’m trying to take a medium aggressive approach, which is what I recommend to most people, is like you don’t need to be really passive and really conservative. You don’t need to be super aggressive, but if you want to do things like a burr or cosmetic rehabs on rental properties, those are fantastic ways to pursue financial independence. If you have 10 hours a week, you’re going to be able to do that. So think about this for yourself once you have an answer to that. I think sort of paths kind of start to diverge here because what your answers are are going to really depend on what you’re going to do in 2026. So I’m going to draw up actually a little quadrant here about the two different variables that we’re talking about. So on one axis, if you’re listening on the podcast, I’m drawing a quadrant on the horizontal axis.
I’m drawing time and on the vertical axis, money and where you fall in which quadrant, which box you fall in is going to really dictate what you should be doing in your first year. So if you’re low on time, but you have lots of money, so you’re in this first quadrant here, what I would invest in here is I would think about rental properties. You don’t have a lot of time. You’re not going to be able to flip. So I would think about rental properties low leverage because you have money and so you’re not going to need to put five or 10% down. So I’d say put 25% down and then if you have time, I do cosmetic rehabs because you’re not going to have time to do a big rehab because again, you’re falling into this low time bucket. That’s what I would look for if you’re just asking me and you fall into this bucket, you have money to invest.
Not a lot of time buy rental properties, put 25% down, do a cosmetic rehab, don’t that hard about it. This is going to work. Next quadrant that you go into is a lot of time and a lot of money. This is obviously a good place to be in, but what I would do is heavy into burrs If I had both time and money, that makes a lot of sense to me because that’s going to grow my equity as quickly as possible. But if I did a heavy burr or a heavy value at Burr, that is going to take up a lot of time. But if you have time and money, I would go heavy into these bur the next one is high on time and low on money. The things that I would look to do are things like potentially wholesaling. I don’t have a lot of experience in that, but if you wanted to, this is a good way to make money.
I would try and partner on flips and see if you can use sweat equity or I know this is going to be controversial, make more money. I know that sounds silly, but if you don’t have a lot of money, but you have a lot of time, go make more money. Whether that’s doing a side hustle, investing in your education so you can increase your income, becoming an agent on the side, I don’t know, but if you can make more money with that extra time that you have, that’s probably going to be the best way to help your investing career at this point. So think about that. Then we go into the last bucket, which is low money and low time. This is a tough place to be, right? If you don’t have time and you don’t have money, real estate investing is going to be very difficult for you, and I just want to be clear about that.
I know there are tons of people on the internet who like to say, you can get into this industry with no time, no money. I’m sorry, but that is not true or it is very, very rare and I don’t want to discourage you. If you fall into this bucket, you can get from where you are today to becoming a real estate investor, but making a real estate investment is probably not the next step in your journey. What you need to focus on is one, either freeing up time so that you can do those other things I just talked about or earning more money, spending time, saving money. You can still educate yourself as an investor. You can save money and then invest maybe in a year or two. Your goal is to get your foot in the door, and so if you’re in that fourth quadrant, figure out a way your year one goal is find a way to get your foot in the door, and when we get to our three year goal in a little bit, you’re going to be able to have a little bit more exciting goal.
Don’t worry about that, but year one is going to be just getting your foot in the door if you’re in these other quadrants. The way I would think about it is try and figure out one, how many deals you can realistically do and at what point, so if you’re in quadrant one, you’re doing these rental properties with low leverage, putting 25% down for cosmetic jobs, I would say maybe you could do one of those, right? Is a realistic goal. One deal at I’m going to target a 15% annualized return. I do deals like that all the time. If I don’t have a lot of time right now and I find a decent deal, 15% annualized return, that’s fantastic. The stock market averages to 9%. It’s having a good year this year, but eight to 9%. If I can make 15% on a low effort deal, I’m pretty happy about that.
That’s just an example. That would be one goal. I would say if you’re going to do burrs, I would say maybe try and do two deals and try and get maybe a 40% annualized return because you’re going to be able to hopefully do a burr. Maybe you do two of them. They take six months each. Maybe they take nine months each. So let’s just say you get into two deals at an annualized rate. You might not realize all of that in one year, but just say an annualized rate of 40%, or if I’m wholesaling and I’m in this third quadrant, remember that one is with low money, but high time, I would try and figure out how much more money you can make, how much can you save would be my year one goal. Not necessarily how many deals I can do, but if I’m in quadrant three and I have 20 grand, my goal would be something like $50,000 to invest next year.
I know that doesn’t sound as exciting as going out and buying a deal, but I promise you if you save 50 grand next year, you’re going to be able to do a great deal and it’s going to accelerate your career probably faster than it is then trying to get a little piece of a random deal or doing a really risky flip. That’s my honest advice. That’s what I would do if I were in that situation. Now, going back to our example of having $75,000 to invest and 10 hours a week, I’m going for the burr. That’s what I would personally try and do, and so my one year goal would be two burrs, and then on my first bur, I think I’ll only be able to sell that first one or refinance that first one in the year. Maybe I’ll do my start my second one within one year, but realistically at 10 hours a week, I can only do one at a time, so I’m going to think about that’s probably a nine month project, and I’m going to say I want to earn at least 40% on that deal.
I want a 40% annualized return on that first deal. That’s huge. 40% is awesome. That actually would come out to, for $75,000, that’s a $30,000 return, so already in year one, we’ve gone from $75,000 in equity that we need. We’re trying to get to 2 million and we’ve already gone up to 105,000. That may not sound like a lot, but if you’re able to do that, I promise you, you are going to be able to hit your goal and I will do the math for that when we come back from this quick break. Stick with us.
Welcome back to the BiggerPockets podcast. Now that we’ve done our long-term goal and our year one goal, let’s just extrapolate this out because you can basically do the strategies that I just said well into the future, and I know like I said, you’re going from 75,000 to 105,000 in your first year. I hope that sounds like a lot. That’s an amazing return. If you’re making a 40% return, you should be super happy, but I just want to extrapolate this out a little bit because there’s this kind of magical thing in math called the rule of 72, and this says that if you take the number 72 and you divide it by your rate of return that you’re earning, that’s how many years it will take your money to double. If you take the number 72, you’re earning on average an annualized return of 10%, it’s going to take you 7.2 years to double your money.
Now, if you’re doing the burr or cosmetic rehabs, which is what I think the majority of our audience should be doing, I think hitting 24% annualized returns is very practical. It’s not going to take so much time. You’re going to still need to be able to put in some work, find great deals, but if you can get, let’s just round it to a 30% annualized return, that’s going to take work, right? You’re going to need to do cosmetic rehabs. You’re going to need to do burrs to earn at 30%. You can’t just go buy a regular rental property and 30%, but I’m just going to show you this is what I would do if I was starting with $75,000. I would just try and target this 30% annualized return every single year because I’m starting in year zero with 75,000. Then in year three, we’d have 150 k.
In year six, we’d have 300 k. In year nine, we’d have 600 k. See how this thing starts to compound, and then in year 12, we’d have 1.2 million, and then in year 15 we’d have 2.4 million. So this is actually a really good example. I set our goal arbitrarily earlier. I was just coming up with this example as we go, and what I came up with is I said, I wanted $2 million in 12 years. Well, now I’m looking at this and I’m thinking that’s probably a little unrealistic In 12 years, even if I earned a 30% return, which is good, I would be at just $1.2 million in equity. That’s still a great place to be, but it looks like my time horizon is going to be closer to 14 to 15 years. That’s still awesome, right? I’m talking about being able to replace my income and earn $120,000 in after tax income.
That’s just 10 grand to spend every single month in 14 to years. I’m just starting with 75 grand, which takes time to build up, but it’s not like you’re starting with a millionaire’s amount of money and I’m only putting in 10 hours per week into these deals. If you want to accelerate this, you can find ways to make more money and put more investible assets, save more money. Remember this, what I’m doing right here, 14 to 15 years assumes I put no new money into my investments. I’m taking the 70 5K, and I’m just extrapolating that, but for most people, you’re going to be able to save money every month, put more money back in, that’s going to help you get to 12 to 15 years, but that’s what I want you to do at the end of this exercise is to be able to say, yeah, I gut GutCheck this and I think that this is reasonable for me.
I would say now at the end of this exercise, my long-term goal is $2 million. I’m actually going to say still in 12 years, because I said 14 to 15 years would take it with no new money into it, but I think I’m going to be able to add some new money into it, so I actually do think 12 years is realistic. That is my long-term goal. My one year goal is going to be I’m going to round to a hundred K in equity and my three year goal, remember, I think that I want my money to double in three years. My three year goal is going to be $300,000. That’s my example. This is what I want all of you to get to know these three numbers for yourself, because once you do, you can already start to figure out what deals you should be doing, right?
If these are my goals, I know that I can’t just go buy on-market MLS deals. I am not going to be flipping. I probably don’t want to do short-term rentals because although they can offer more cashflow, my goal is building equity. I know that my goal is building equity, and so that allows me to hone in on projects where I can do a burr or a cosmetic rehab, see how this is already helping me set my strategy just by knowing these numbers. There’s so many great ways to make money in real estate, but I know my goals. I know I’m going to do burrs and cosmetic rehabs, and I’m going to look for a market where I can do that for my 70 5K because I have enough money to get into a deal, and so I’m specifically going to look for markets where I can put in $75,000.
For me, that’s probably going to be somewhere in the Midwest or southeast. If I put 25% down, I’m probably going to target a deal that is like $250,000 with a $50,000 rehab. That is something you can go out and achieve today. So I’ve basically backed into my buy box for next year. I know that if I want to hit my goal, I’m going to look in the Midwest for a burr cosmetic deal that is in the 200 to $250,000 range with a $50,000 cosmetic rehab. That’s amazing. So many people spend so much time trying to figure out what their buy box is, all these different strategies. I’m coming up with this example in real time just using these numbers that I’m making up. I already was able to figure out my buy box just by backing into where I want to be 20 years from now, and this is why I say that knowing these financial goals is the number one key thing that investors need to do that most of them miss.
Spend 30 minutes right now figuring out what these numbers are for yourself, and I promise you, your plan for the rest of 2025 and 2026 and the rest of your investing career is going to become so much easier. Now, I think in this podcast episode, I’ve given you enough to be able to do this, but if you like this concept and you really want to get a crystal clear vision of where you want to go in your investing career, I’m going to be a little bit of a pusher and recommend my book Start With Strategy. Literally, the whole book is kind of about this idea that if you set your long-term goals, well, you can back into the right strategy. So if you want to go deep on this, you can check out my book on BiggerPockets. It’s called Start With Strategy. It’s also on Amazon, but hopefully this has been enough for you to just do this by yourself.
The book is just for people who want to go a little bit deeper. That’s what we got for you guys today. If you have questions about this, please let me know, or if you want to hear more content about this kind of stuff, we always talk about tactics and strategy, but I think this stuff is so important, which is why I wanted to do this episode today. If you want more content like this, please let us know in the comments or hit me up on Instagram where I’m at, the data deli. Thank you all so much for listening to this episode of the BiggerPockets podcast. I’m Dave Meyer. I’ll see you next time.

 

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Forming a real estate investing partnership could help you scale your real estate portfolio faster, but if you’re not careful, you could just as easily find yourself in hot water. Want to make sure you structure your partnership in a way that protects you and your assets? Then you won’t want to miss this episode!

Today’s Rookie Reply features more questions from the BiggerPockets Forums and answers from your trusted hosts, Ashley and Tony. First, we hear from a rookie who may be on the verge of making a major blunder with their first partnership, but not to worry—we’ll steer them in the right direction. Our next question comes from someone who’s about to close on their first rental property but is wary of inheriting tenants. What should they do? Offer cash for keys? Delay possession of the property? We’ll break down all of their options!

Finally, how difficult is it to start and scale an Airbnb business today? Our resident short-term rental expert shares some of the tools, systems, and expectations you’ll need to grow a profitable portfolio—no matter the market!

Ashley:
Let’s be honest. Figuring out how to partner with a contractor, navigating tenant leases or scaling a short-term rental portfolio isn’t something you learn from a textbook.

Tony:
I mean, these are real life curve balls that rookie investors are facing right now. And today we’re answering three questions straight from the BiggerPockets form to help you avoid these common pitfalls.

Ashley:
This is the Real Estate Rookie podcast. I am Ashley Kehr.

Tony:
And I’m Tony j Robinson. And with that, let’s get into today’s first question. Alright, so question one comes from Steve in the BiggerPockets forms and Steve says, I found a partner that I like to start flipping houses with. He’s very well qualified and he actually reached out to me to partner up. Our goal is the same started flipping business. He used to own his own contracting business for six years and is now the onsite manager of a construction company that built apartments and subdivisions. I’m bringing the capital, he’s doing some of the labor himself and charging me nothing for labor, anything he can’t do, he will charge me book cost for a specialist labor and cost for materials. He offered me a 70 30 partnership. I figured instead of a private loan, 70% sounded pretty appealing. I’ll also get to help out and learn some trades with him.
My main concern is he doesn’t have enough cash now to have any skin in the game or cover any upfront fees. I asked if he’d give me a personal guarantee on a private asset around 10 K. He said he doesn’t own anything outright that’s worth 10 k. Does anyone have protection recommendation? So I can sleep a little easier. I’m getting cold feet since I’ll have the skin in the game Financially, if something goes south on the flip and he doesn’t have enough to pay me back or we lose the money, how will he pay me? Alright, this is a great question. I think first Ashton might be beneficial just to discuss the different types of partnerships. So there’s a debt partnership and then there’s an equity partnership. Steve, for you, it sounds like what you guys are pursuing is an equity partnership. If you really want to make sure that you are protecting yourself, then maybe a better scenario here is for you just to be this person’s private money lender where you give them a loan and with that loan now you get a lien against the property.
You get a promissory note that outlines how much he’s supposed to pay you back, and if for whatever reason he doesn’t repay you, well now you’ve got a means to go after the property and try and recoup some of what was invested. That is the way that a debt partnership works. The equity partnership on the other hand is like you guys going into this deal together. So there really isn’t, I mean, and again, you can set up the partnership in a way that you want, but typically in an equity partnership, you guys are sharing in both the upside potential of that deal and the downside potential of that deal. So if things do go sideways, there is no, he’s paying me back, Hey, I brought in the capital, he’s bringing in his time and this is kind of the risks that we’re taking is that, hey, maybe he doesn’t finish, or maybe this does go wrong. So I think in an equity partnership you get more of the upside, but part of what you’re accepting is that downside risk as well.

Ashley:
I think one of the things that I noticed at the end of the question as to he’s asking if he can have a lien on some personal property that the contractor has or how will he make sure that he’s paid back if the flip goes south? And that’s one really important thing about being an equity partner is they have no obligation to pay you back just because they’re the other partner in the deal. You are partners on this. If it goes south, you guys eat the loss. Your partner has no liability to have to pay you back for what went south on the deal. So I agree with Tony, maybe being a debt partner is actually better for you or you could do both. My very first deal, I had a partner who was an equity partner and the debt partner, so he actually got monthly payments every month, five and a half percent he was making on his money and he was also 50% owner of the property.
Now this was a very good deal for him. I probably wouldn’t recommend doing that for your first deal. It’s like giving up that much equity, but also you’re on the side that my partner was where you’re getting all of these benefits. So maybe instead of 70 30, you actually do the 50 and then you are making five and a half percent interest and you get monthly payments to yourself or you wait until the end of the deal and actually pay yourself interest or pay yourself off at the end of the deal. So when you sell the flip, your balance is repaid to you, the capital is repaid to you, then maybe you’re even if it’s a small amount of 3% interest or something like that. So I think be very confident in the difference between the responsibility of being a debt partner compared to being an equity partner.
But I think in this scenario that you have the opportunity to be both. So you could put the lien on the property as the debt partner so that when the property goes to sell, you are getting paid first before you and your partner get a capital distribution from any profit that is paid out. So I would try this way out for your first deal together and then maybe if it goes well and down the line you can just say, you know what? I don’t need to do the debt partnership part. Let’s just do full on equity.

Tony:
Yeah, I think, yeah, you bring up a really good point Ash, and again, it goes back to what we say often is that there’s no right or wrong way to structure a partnership. It’s really more about what the two of you feel most comfortable with. But I think that maybe one of the questions that you guys should answer amongst yourselves is, well, what happens if your contracting partner doesn’t fulfill his duties? What happens if he misses a lot of, or maybe just isn’t showing up to the job site or the work that he promised to do isn’t being done? What then can you do as a money partner to kind of course correct this deal? And maybe it’s like, hey, if you miss deadline by X number of weeks or certain milestones aren’t met within a certain timeframe, then maybe you as the person who brought the capital, has the ability to swap him out with someone else, or maybe he loses his 30% equity in that deal and now there’s something else.
So it feels like maybe there’s some solutions here, but honestly, I feel like the best solution if you’ve already asked some question marks, is just to be a straight up debt partner That’ll simplify this in a way that I think allows you to sleep a little bit easier at night. You get more of a guaranteed return because there’s that note there and you don’t necessarily have to worry about like, Hey, what happens if the deal doesn’t go according to plan? Because if it doesn’t, you’re still obligated to get that return. Now, will you actually get it is a different story, but at least you have that obligation there that he’s supposed to pay you back.

Ashley:
We’re going to take a short break, but when we’re going to come back, we’re going to go over a scenario where someone’s purchasing a duplex that has a tenant in place, but they also want to live in the property. We’ll be right back. Okay, welcome back. Our next question is from Isaiah in the BiggerPockets forums, I’m planning to make an offer on a duplex listed around 455,000 here in Raleigh. I’m planning to live in one unit and rent out the other. So owner occupancy is a must for my FHA loan. One side is vacant. The only wrinkle is that the tenant on the other side has a lease that runs until July, 2026, about eight months from now. My goal is to have vacant possession at closing or as soon as reasonably possible after without putting pressure on the tenant or making the seller’s life difficult for those who’ve been in similar situations.
What’s the best way to structure this in the offer? So it’s fair for everyone, seller, tenant and myself. Should I ask for the seller to provide notice to the tenant right after due diligence ends request delayed possession until lease end and possibly negotiate a rent credit, reduced purchase price to offset holding costs include a vacant possession clause contingent upon lease termination before closing. Any examples of how you worded this in your own offers or leases would really help? My goal is to keep this deal smooth and respectful, but still align with the FHA owner occupancy rules. From what I’ve learned on the BP podcast, inheriting tenants can sometimes be more trouble than it’s worth because they’re used to the previous owner’s way of doing things. I want to make this transition as smooth as possible and avoid stepping in as the bad guy trying to change rules or expectations. So one thing I want to clarify here, Tony, and tell me if you understood it the same way. Is he thinking that he needs to have the whole property vacant upon possession or he just wants to have it?

Tony:
Yeah, my understanding is that he just wants to have a clean slate when he steps in because one side is already vacant for him to move into. But yeah, it sounds at the bottom down there, right? From what I’ve learned, inheriting tenants can sometimes be more trouble than what it’s worth. I want to make this transition as smooth as possible and avoid stepping in as a bad guy. So it sounds like he’s just got maybe some fear and hesitation around inheriting tenants and just wants a clean break.

Ashley:
Yeah, he said my goal is to keep this deal smooth and respectful, but still align with the FHA owner occupancy rules. So just to be clear, if anyone did think that you can have one unit rented out, you just need to have at least one unit for you to live in. So this property as is does comply with FHA rules. You don’t need to have the whole thing vacant for you to move into when you close on the property. So inheriting tenants, I’ve had the good and I’ve had the bad. I’ve had one lady that I inherited and when I inherited her, she lived there for 30 years and it’s been eight years and she’s still living there. Wonderful, wonderful tenant. Also had people where we’ve evicted them within the first six months of taking over the property. So definitely is difficult because you aren’t the one that screened the person.
So you don’t have the background, you don’t know what their credit score was, you don’t know their background check, and you didn’t get to decide who’s moving in or you into the property. So I can understand where this person is coming from is wanting a clean slate. So when you are negotiating with the sellers on this, understand that, I don’t know North Carolina laws, but in there anything like New York, that’s very, very hard to get a tenant out for just because you want them to move out with no significant reason. So usually that’s nonpayment of rent or if the lease is up for renewal. But if they do have a lease in place, it’s very, very hard to get someone out. The thing that I could offer you to suggest is to do a cash for keys situation where you ask the sellers, you could ask them first if they would be willing to have the property vacant.
Maybe the sellers already know a way to make that happen by offering cash for keys or they know some way to get the tenant out of the property. You could put that in. If they say no, they’re not going to do that, then see if they would be willing to have you offer cash to the tenant to vacate before they move out of the property. So the only problem is with this is if I was the seller of the property, I would be very cautious of getting the property completely vacant because what if we don’t close on the property and now I’m stuck with a vacant building with no tenant in place and we didn’t close on the property. Now I have to start the whole sales process all over again. And who knows how long that could take? And now I’m sitting vacant. So also think about the seller side of things, but another thing you could do is just wait until you have ownership of the property and you could serve notice that you are going to terminate their lease at the end of their lease and it’s not up for renewal.
And again, this is dependent on state laws. I’m pretty sure California can’t even do that. You have to offer renewal unless it’s something crazy like you’re demoing the property or you’re moving a family member in something like that. So make sure you know your state laws, but worst case scenario, you put something in place so the day you take ownership, you’re working towards making sure they know that their lease is terminated at the end of the eight months. So step one, just ask the sellers, ask if they would be willing to have it vacant. The next step is to offer a cash for keys, see if they would be okay with that, that you offer cash for keys to the tenant that’s in the property to move out by the time you close on the property. And then third is have a plan in place for when you take ownership for when that lease does expire, that they are vacating the property.

Tony:
Ash, let me ask you a follow-up question. I think in my mind part of it comes down to how good of a deal this actually is. Because if you’re getting a really killer deal, even if this tenant doesn’t pay for eight months, if you plan to hold this thing for the next 5, 10, 15, 20, 30 years, eight months out of that timeframe is a relatively small percentage. So I guess the question that I want to ask you, Ash, is let’s say that maybe the current owner tells this new buyer, man, these tenants have been a real pain in the butt, actually hate being their landlord, but they complain about everything they pay on time, but they’re just hard to deal with. Would you, if it was a really killer deal, still buy that and knowing that it’s an eight month lease?

Ashley:
Yeah, I would because I also look at it as like, okay, here’s one of the other things he said was what if I do delayed possession where we wait for closing and then they’re getting a credit for holding costs or whatever during that time. But you as the buyer of the property, if they know this property is sold, but you’re taking delayed possession of the property until that person is moved out, are they going to care about the property? Are they going to, I’m buying a house right now where I saw it in the spring, we just went under contract. So this is almost six months later, the gutters are falling off. I was looking at pictures from the spring compared to how it looks now and just from it’s sitting for six months of them just knowing they’re going to sell the property and not really, they didn’t put it on the MLS, anything like that. It’s like I cannot believe how dilapidated it looks just for the six months from nobody living there, nobody taking care of it. That’s what I would worry about too, is that delayed possession as in they’re not going to take care of the property. And just as a seller too, I would just want to offload the property. There’s a reason I’m selling it and I don’t want to wait eight more months for the buyer to take possession of it too.

Tony:
Yeah, that’s true. My oldest son is a senior in high school right now, so we’re having a lot of talks about senioritis and it’s almost the same thing. It’s like when you can see the finish line is so close, you kind of take your foot off the gas. So yeah, I didn’t think about that from the seller’s perspective, but I mean, yeah, I think if it’s a good deal, Isaiah, I would say still move forward with it. Don’t let a good deal slip through your fingers because there’s a tenant there and you don’t even know how great of a tenant it is. And again, in a worst case scenario, maybe just underwrite, Hey, what happens if they didn’t pay for the next eight months or even the next 12 months? You’ve added some additional time to evict them if you need to, but if they didn’t pay for 12 months, what does this deal look like?
If I had to float this by myself, since it’s a house hack, there’s a chance that maybe whatever you’re paying for your new mortgage is the same that you’ve been paying in rent anyway. So I think that there’s maybe some other elements to consider about whether or not you should or should move forward with this deal. Let me ask, right, you did say that you had one tenant, you inherited, lived there for however many years, others that you wanted to evict on day one. Were there any maybe red flags during the closing your due diligence period that you maybe overlooked where now you’re like, okay, I know I’m always going to look for this to see if I get another bats in it?

Ashley:
Yeah, there actually was one, and it was actually a five unit before residential, and the first red flag was when we went to see the property, we couldn’t get into that unit the person was working. The next red flag was that while we were during the closing process and under contract, one person was already evicted from that property. Then the third red flag is in my final walkthrough inspection, the morning of closing, we still can’t get into that other unit. And my real estate agent said, yeah, you’re not getting into it. He’s not allowing access. The seller isn’t pushing it, you’re not getting into it. And it was that circumstance where it was a good enough deal that it didn’t matter. We had already baked into our numbers. We were rehabbing every single unit in there.
One thing too was we were under the impression it was a one bedroom, but it’s actually a studio, but it gets crazy amount in rent, so it wouldn’t matter, I guess. But they paid for a while and then they stopped paying and then we had to go through the whole eviction process with them. But I think the fact that they were giving trouble to get into the unit and that was another red flag, and then just the owner didn’t even really know that that wasn’t a one bedroom. So it was just all of those little things and somebody else in that property was already, this was pretty run down when we bought it. So I guess there was the red flags of this isn’t the greatest building to live in, so why would a really good quality tenant want to live here? I guess. So I think as long as you are setting yourself up for the expectation that you may need to clear house and get other people in there, or if you are not knowing the condition of units, making sure that you’re baking it into your numbers, that this could be a full rehab of that apartment too, not knowing the condition of it.
So there were those little red flags.

Tony:
So I mean, at least Isaiah, you know what to look out for and hopefully it still works out for you. And then we’ll bring you on to the podcast as a guest and you can talk about how great this story was. Or maybe we’ll bring you on as a guest. You can talk about how horrible it was and the advice we gave you was not great advice. So either way, it’ll make for a good story. Alright guys, we’ve got one question left and we’ll hit that right after A quick word from today’s show sponsors. But while we’re gone, if you’re not yet following us on YouTube, there is a real estate Ricky YouTube piano. You can find us at realestate Ricky. You can see mine and Ashley’s smiling faces, but you guys can be a part of the community on YouTube as well. So we’ll be right back after we’re from today’s show sponsors.
Alright guys, welcome back. We are here with our third and final question, another question from the BiggerPockets forums, and this one comes from Jacob. And Jacob says, is anyone successful in scaling a short-term rental portfolio? If yes, how many properties do you have? And are you still growing? Or is the current market too unfavorable? It seems that being so much more hands-on that they’re a little bit harder to scale. But I’m curious what people who actually built portfolios think. That’s a great question, Jacob. So 1000%, it is true that managing one single family short-term rental is going to take more time, effort, and energy than one single family long-term rental. With a long-term rental, you’re signing a lease for 12 months. To Ashley’s point on the last question, you might get someone who stays here for decades with a short-term rental, your average data ratio is probably between two to three to four days, depending on the size of the property in the market.
And you could have multiple people coming through on a monthly basis typically. So just that sheer increased volume of foot traffic through the property, the different personalities you’re dealing with, the expectations that people have when they’re booking a place for their vacation, it just in and of itself is going to require more work. Now I think that, and I don’t know if you saw this actually, she asked yesterday, but there’s a short-term rental company called Sonder. Have you heard of them? So Sonder is, to my understanding, probably the biggest company that operates and manages short-term rentals. They’ve got, I believe it was like 9,000 listings. Their model was more of an arbitrage model where they were leasing out nice apartment complexes in a lot of places, but they had like 9,000 units, but they just yesterday basically filed for bankruptcy. And they’re immediately ceasing operations.
And I think part of the reason that that happens is because it is a little bit more difficult to scale short-term rental operations than it is long-term rental. It’s part of the reason why companies like Evolve or Vac Casa have maybe seen their stock prices take a hit over the last couple of years because the quality of their listings decreases when you’ve got 30,000 listings that you’re managing. So when you talk about scale at that level, I think it is difficult now for most of the people listening to this podcast and we talk about scale, we’re not talking about 9,000 or 30,000 plus listings. We’re talking like five or 10, maybe 15 or 20, right? If you’re really, really crushing it. And I think that level of scale is very much doable, very much feasible if you set up the right tools, systems, and processes to support that. Is it more work? Yes. But is it possible? Absolutely. You just got to make sure you put the right pieces in place.

Ashley:
I think one thing that I’m noticing is that having these unique experiences and things like that really make you stand out that it is the people that have the blah, the standard Airbnb. And I was one of those people, I had two Airbnb arbitrages that were just boring apartments. They had cute bedding, cute furniture, cute decor on the walls, but you can’t add an amenity to an apartment. So I think that was what was really limiting and just they’re become so many Airbnbs that the markets have just become so saturated that you’d need something unique to stand out. And also, I am wondering too, and I have no data to back this up, this is all just my personal preference and maybe other people are feeling the same way. And that’s why some of these Airbnbs aren’t being successful. I would rather stay in a hotel.
I have decided I do not staying in an Airbnb. I like my room cleaned. I like in fresh sheets on my bed. I like to have a restaurant. I like the amenities. I like having a gym, all of these things that a hotel offers compared to an Airbnb. But if it’s something unique and we have our own sauna or have a big pond or it’s on a lake or things like that, then I’m all for it. Or maybe if you just have a huge family and you all want to stay together, but if it’s just me traveling or just me with my kids and it’s just like we’re already doing something, we just really need a place to sleep, 100%. I am picking the hotel or the Airbnb. I don’t want to have a checklist of things to do in the morning, take out the garbage. I don’t want ’em to bring my own toilet paper if they only supply one roll for two weeks. So maybe there is other people like me that this shift has happened also. But I just feel like also in a lot of markets, it’s not that big of a price difference. I felt like for a while Airbnbs were actually a better price than getting a hotel. But now when I compare and look going somewhere, it’s not really that big of a difference at all.

Tony:
Ash. I do think that’s why Airbnb is really, I dunno if you’ve seen some of their, they’ve been spending a lot on marketing and advertising lately, but one of their commercials, it’s like a group of girls who are sharing one hotel room and there’s one bathroom, one mirror, and then they do the split screen where it’s the same girls, but they’re in a four bedroom house and everyone’s got their own bathroom and it’s like a bachelorette themed thing. And I think that’s maybe where Airbnb has a bit of a leg up. There was another commercial where it was like a couple who had went on vacation to get away from their kids and they’re hanging out at the pool at the hotel and there’s a bunch of kids running around and they’re like, we came here to get away from the kids. And then the split screen is them at their own private Airbnb with their private pool and enjoying it that way. So I do think that there are definitely a percentage of folks who just like the amenity to come along with the hotel and what that experience is. But there’s definitely still, I think a growing group of people who like the privacy, the experiences that you mentioned. And then also the ability if you’re going with the big group, grandma, grandpa, the cousins, the kids, just to have one big place that you guys can all stay

Ashley:
All set and hang out. Yeah,

Tony:
I think there’s always a market for that too. And I guess that kind of leads to the other points of Jacob’s question. Is the market too unfavorable? I mean, you could ask that for every single real estate investing strategy right now. Is it too unfavorable for flipping? Is it too unfavorable for single family long-term rentals? Are there challenges now in terms of interest rate, in terms of affordability? Absolutely. But does it mean that the strategies themselves are no longer working? No, it just means you have to tweak and adjust your strategy and how you’re executing to fit the reality of today’s environment. So people are always investing in real estate as a market’s done, whatever it’s done over the life of the United States, people have always invested in real estate. And it’s worked out because over time it still tends to be a good investment.

Ashley:
And I think exactly what you said is what you have to consider to see if the strategy will work in your market. So if you are going into a market where there are a ton of Airbnbs and just having a plain Jane apartment doing Airbnb arbitrage or just getting a house that has no amenities, are there a million others? Just like that? And do you to have something unique and something to stand out to. So really look at the market that you want to go into and see what is going to make yourself stand out from all the other listings too, or what type of property is always booked? Is it one that has the bar with all of the different glam sets for the girls to do their makeup for the bachelorette parties? So really doing your market research on what people are actually looking for and want and why they would choose you over another Airbnb. Airbnb or over a hotel to come to that market. To

Tony:
Episode 6 48, which released on December 3rd. We interviewed John Bianchi and Jamie Lane, two folks from the short-term rental industry who are experts in the data side of things. And if you want more insights on what to look for, how to do that market research, again, go check out episode 6 48.

Ashley:
Well, thank you guys so much for joining us for this week’s rookie reply. I’m Ashley. He’s Tony. And we’ll see you guys next time.

 

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