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How do investors feel about today’s housing market and what does it mean for your real estate portfolio? On this episode, OTM host Dave Meyer digs into recent investor surveys by Stessa and ResiClub to provide insights into investor plans and market trends. You’ll learn how investors are planning to navigate the real estate market in the next year, including some diverging regional trends. Plus, Dave breaks down the latest inflation report and discusses the impacts of immigration policy on housing affordability and how tariffs could impact mortgage rates in the coming months.

Dave:
How are investors feeling about today’s housing market? Because we all know what the media is saying. We all know what our crazy uncle or our friend thinks about the housing market, but what about those of us who are actually on the ground buying and selling real estate, managing properties and preparing for the future? Are those types of people buying or are they selling everything and trying to get out for good? And what does broad investor sentiment tell us about our own investments in the first place today and on the market? We are digging into two recent surveys that are going to give us a couple of the answers to these super important questions, and we’ll also be talking about the most recent inflation report to give you all of the information you need to be an informed and an effective real estate investor.
Hey everyone, it’s Dave. Welcome to On the Market. Today we’re going to be diving deep into three different topics. Two of them sort of coincidentally just happened to be surveys that I found super interesting and I think are going to shed some important light on how Americans are feeling about housing and housing affordability, how investors are thinking about growing or maybe shrinking their portfolio in the coming years. And of course we will talk about the recent inflation report and what that means for Fed decisions over the rest of this year. So we’ve got a great show for you. Let’s jump in. The first story is actually a summary of a recent survey that was done by two sort of big reputable names in the real estate investing community. It’s ssa, which is an asset management and accounting software for real estate investors that is owned by Roofstock and Resi Club, which is a great residential real estate analytics firm.
And basically they paired up to do an investor sentiment survey to try and understand how investors are feeling about the housing market right now at least I was excited to see this survey and this data because we often hear about how agents, how lenders, how first time home buyers are feeling about the housing market, all of which is important, but it is much harder to find information and relevant data about what real estate investors are actually thinking about this market. So what sess and Resit Club did was they went out and they surveyed 239 single family investors and landlords. So this was people who own at least one single family investment property. So this is not primary residence, they have to actually be a landlord. So there’s a ton of really good information here and I’m going to break it all down for you because I think it really helps understand and sort of just set a baseline for what we expect to happen this year.
And I always just think it’s helpful to understand how other investors are thinking about the market because outside of this show, for example, where I get to talk to Henry and Kathy and James about what they’re doing, getting that sort of insight into what investors are doing in aggregate is kind of hard. So what are they doing let’s into this thing. So the main headline here is that 45% of real estate investors say they plan to grow their portfolio in the near term. Now at first because I think this is the first time they’ve done this data, they don’t have a time series. We can’t go back and see how this compares to how people were feeling in 2015 or 2020 or whatever because the survey just didn’t exist then. So we sort of have to take this as a snapshot. So I was kind of just trying to think about is that high, is that low?
And I actually think it’s relatively high because I think realistically even in the best market conditions, some people might just not have enough money. A lot of investors need to save money between acquisitions or they have a buy and hold strategy. Maybe they’re just in a different phase of their investing career. So having nearly half of investors surveyed say that they plan to grow their portfolio is a little bit higher than I was expecting. I was sort of guessing it might’ve been about a third, but it was actually 45%. But one of the most fascinating elements of this is that they actually break down investor intention by region. And I think this is super interesting and important for investors who operate in some of these regions. So where people are planning to buy and expand and where people are planning to exit and maintain is actually pretty different.
We talk about real estate being local and that is definitely showing up in the data here, but I will admit it is more different than I thought. For example, the Midwest, which you all know I’m long on, I’ve been touting the benefits of the Midwest for several years now. In the Midwest, 58% of investors say that they plan to grow their portfolio, which is really high and only 4.2% of people say that they plan to exit. So that is by far the most active market. On the total opposite end of the spectrum, we’re talking about the west coast of the United States, you get less than half of that 27%, and I’m rounding here, but 27% compared to 58%. So only about one quarter of people in the west plan to grow in the Midwest. It is more than half with everyone else in between. So the other regions that we see here are the northeast is 37%, the southwest at 51% and the southeast also at 51%.
So they’re pretty spread out with the west being by far the least intention to grow their portfolio. Now I think it’s important to understand that these are probably trends that have existed for a while. The west is very expensive and if you’re surveying landlords, that is just not a super popular place to be a landlord, whether it’s because of the price point, the rent to price ratio, the landlord laws, whatever it is not as popular as being a landlord in the Midwest or in the southeast where we’re seeing a higher percentage of who are intending to buy. The other thing that stood out to me is what’s going on in the southeast because it is actually pretty high relatively in terms of how many people intend to buy. It’s higher than the US average, which again US average is 45%. In the Southeast it’s 51%, but at the same time in the southeast that is where the most people plan to exit and just get out, right?
10% of investors, which is a lot, I think 10% of investors in any given year planning to sell their portfolio is a lot. And that is inevitably going to happen when you get in sort of this correction territory that we’re in the southeast, well not all over the southeast, but places like Florida, right? We’re in a correction. So if you’re a landlord and you’ve been around for a while, maybe now is the time to sell. You see a correction coming, there’s a lot of expense increases. It might say, Hey, I’ve had a good run, it’s time to get out. So I’m not super surprised by that, but it is significantly higher than anywhere else in the US nationally it’s 6.5%. So in the southeast it’s about 50% higher than the average. So that is a lot more people looking to get out, whereas the majority of these places, if you look at the west for example, I said that’s the lowest looking to grow.
Only 27% looking to grow. But pretty much everyone who owns property there is planning to hang onto it. 66% of people are just saying they’re going to maintain with only 7% of people saying that they’re going to exit. So you see this that there are very, very different sentiments about the market, whereas the more expensive markets in the northeast and west people really want to maintain but they are not planning to grow. Whereas the more affordable markets like in the southeast and the Midwest, more people are looking to grow. So that was the main headline that we saw there, but I think that there’s some other really interesting data here. I’m going to talk you through what cap rates investors are willing to accept, what mortgage rates they’re willing to accept and the challenges that other investors are seeing in their market. And I’m curious if you see the same thing or you feel the same way as the sentiment that I’m about to share with you.
So next up, let’s talk about mortgage rates because obviously we all know if you listen to this show about the lock-in effect, which has basically controlled inventory and suppressed inventory I should say over the last couple of years because people are locked into these super low mortgage rates and for a while there’s been other survey data by Zillow and John Burns real estate consulting, which I have looked at this question and asked people what mortgage rates they are willing to accept because knowing this actually tells us a lot about what might happen in the housing market. If people were willing to accept a six and a half percent mortgage rate, like say 80% of people would take a six and a half, then the market is not that far from really starting to recover. But if what most people want from a mortgage rates or what they’re willing to accept from a mortgage rate is five or five and a half percent, in my opinion, you could be waiting a long time.
So this data is super interesting and although Zillow has shown five, five and a half percent of what they think people are waiting out for, that’s their single family homes. And so that’s why this data is so valuable because investors act a little bit differently. What we see from investors is yes, a hundred percent of people would take a mortgage rate under 4%. That’s not surprising. Everyone would be crazy not to take that. For under four and a half percent it’s 96% and under 5% it’s 91%. So for all intents and purposes, if we got to a place where mortgage rates were below 5%, investors would probably really start looking to acquire pretty rapidly, but it falls off pretty steadily from there, from five to 5.5%, it drops from 91 down to 82% and just going up to 6% or up to 72%, so it drops off 20%.
So one out of five people are dropping off between five and 6%, and if you go all the way up to 7%, which is where we’re at today, we get to just 50% of people. So that explains a lot of what’s going on in the housing market, right, because we are seeing now 7% mortgages and we have also seen not coincidentally that transaction volume in the housing market has dropped 50% since 2022. So if you’re wondering why have transaction volumes come down, well this data is telling us exactly why 50% of people say they will not accept a mortgage rate above 7%, which we are sort of starting to see. And so that is the reason why transaction volume is not where we want it to be. Now looking forward if we want the housing market to take back off, and when I say take back off, of course people who hold property do want to see prices go up, but even without prices going up, I think it’s beneficial for the economy as a whole and for the industry as a whole just to see transaction volume go up.
We need to see more people buying and selling real estate right now and the data shows us that for every incremental drop in mortgage rates, we will probably see some improvement in transaction volume. So just as an example, if we went from 7% mortgages around where we are today to six and a half percent, about 10% of investors would jump back in. That would make a dent. It’s not huge because investors only make up about 20% of the total market. So that’s 2% overall uptick in transaction volume, but that would matter if we went down to 6%, another 12% would jump in. So now we’re starting to talk that’s about four and a half percent of the overall market. That would make a difference if we could really start to see four and a half, 5% more transactions in the market. That would make a difference for all of the agents out there, for the loan officers out there and the overall economy, which is highly on real estate transactions, it makes up about 16% of GDP, all sorts of real estate, not just transactions constructions included in that too, but that is sort of where we’re at.
And of course if we went back to 5%, we’d basically get all the investors off the sidelines and back into the market. So this sort of helps us if we want to understand where the market is going and if we’re going to see transaction volume pick up. My answer is probably not by that much right now because we’re near 7% and although there is a chance we get closer to 6.5%, I don’t think we’re getting much lower than that and I don’t even know if we’re getting a 6.5%. I have been saying for at least six months, maybe even a year now that I don’t think rates are going down as quickly or as low as people think. And I still believe that, and we’ll talk about this in a couple of minutes with the inflation report, but I still believe that rates are going to stay a bit higher for as long as we have this level of economic uncertainty that we’re in right now.
And so this data is helpful in telling us that maybe transaction volumes aren’t going to recover that quickly, but it does give us hope that when rates do fall, if they do fall, that we will get some of that transaction volume back. It’s just kind of a matter of time. It’s not people saying, I don’t ever want to buy real estate. What they’re saying is it’s too expensive to buy real estate right now. And so with rates where they’re at and prices where they are, some certain segment of the population are not going to transact and we’re learning that directly from the survey in addition to the stuff we’re all just seeing on the ground. Okay, so that’s the second thing we learned from this survey. The third one probably will be really of interest to people who invest in multifamily. If you’re unfamiliar with this term called cap rates, which we’re about to talk about, it helps you sort of evaluate how much value you’re getting for every dollar of net operating income that you’re generating a property with.
So generally speaking, the higher the cap rate, the better it is for the acquirer for the buyer on the side of that transaction. Sellers generally want cap rates to be low because that means they’re earning more for every dollar of net operating income the property produces. So as part of this survey, they asked investors what would be the lowest cap rate they are willing to accept because again, generally acquirers buyers want higher cap rates and what they said is that 65% would accept a cap rate above 6%, which I’m looking at it right now according to CoStar, that’s about where we are. So we’re seeing actually more investors signal a willingness to participate in market conditions in the multifamily market than they were in the single family market. If we’re just comparing how many people would buy with today’s mortgage rates versus how many people would buy with today’s cap rates, people are more interested in today’s cap rates.
Now I should mention that those are not apples to apples comparison because mortgage rates is a financing option. Cap rates is a way of valuing properties, but I think they’re asking these questions because they’re trying to understand how people feel about the residential market with mortgage rates and how investors are feeling about the multifamily market with cap rates. And what we’re seeing is a little bit more willingness to participate in a 6% cap rate. Now, just for some historical context, cap rates bottomed out at about 4.9% in 2021 and 2022. So they have come up quite a lot and that means real savings for buyers because just from cap rates, if all you’re basing the acquisition price of a property on is cap rates, which you shouldn’t, there’s other stuff that matters there, but if you were just trying to do a back of the envelope valuation that shows us that multifamily prices have dropped 25%, right?
Because if you’re just evaluating based on NOI and NOI stays the same. If you were to buy something at a 4.9 cap rate with the same N NOIs, you bought a 6.1 cap rate a couple years later, you would be saving 25% on that asset price below what you would’ve paid in late or early 2022. And so this is why I think more people are interested in a 6% cap rate because they’re already getting a really good discount above where prices were a few years ago. Unsurprisingly, if those cap rates went up to 7%, 100% of the investors surveyed said that they would be interested in that. I don’t blame them. I sure would be interested at a 7% cap rate. That is a very good risk adjusted return even with all of the considerations around debt and insurance and things going on in commercial, if you could buy at a 7% cap rate, to me that is quite a good deal.
Obviously not if it has tons of work and tons of risk, but if the average cap rate went up near 7%, man, it would definitely be buying time for me and clearly a lot of other investors think the same way. So those were the main three highlights from this survey from Resi Club and essa. But there are a couple other things I’ll just go over quickly. They also asked how real estate investors manage their own portfolio. I was kind of shocked by this 58%. I kind of thought that it would be a little bit less than that, but I guess when you only have a couple properties in your investing in state, it makes a lot of sense to self-manage. It’s a better financial decision. And so 58% of people self-manage, 22% use a property management company. 17% do sort of a hybrid approach, which is what I do, or 3% actually has a property manager but not a professional one.
So a business partner or a family member who actually does that. So that was kind of interesting. The majority, a lot, nearly 60% of people self-manage and only 22% less than a quarter use professional property management companies. That was pretty interesting. And then the other thing I just wanted to share with people, because I think sometimes misery loves company and they ask people what the most frustrating part of the buying process is according to investors, and I bet you can guess, what do you guys think the most frustrating part is? Well number one in the United States by two thirds, two thirds of investors said the most frustrating part is finding deals that cashflow that is not surprising to me. The second thing was competing with other buyers or investors. The third was running the numbers or analyzing deals. The fourth was getting financing and then the last was understanding neighborhoods or comps.
These actually break down differently by region investors in the west. 78% of them are saying they can’t find cashflow, whereas in the other end, Midwest, 54% of people are saying that they can find cashflow. So that is definitely encouraging, but if you have been struggling to find cashflow, particularly in the west or the southwest, you are not alone. It sounds like half to two thirds of investors feel the same way, and that is the most frustrating part of being a real estate investor right now. So those are some of the highlights from the Resi Club and STAA survey. I will make sure to put a link to this article that summarizes the data in the show notes if you want to check out the rest of it. We do actually have two more stories to share with you. First we’ll talk about the inflation report and then another study by Redfin about housing affordability. Stay with us. We have a quick break, but we’ll be right back with those two stories.
Welcome back to On the Market. I’m Dave Meyer here, sharing with you three new stories that I’ve been paying attention to this week and giving you my reaction. Before the break, we talked a lot about a recent survey from Resi Club and ESSA talking about how investors plan to handle the next year. But honestly, I think the way investors might handle the next year is going to be highly dependent on interest rates and mortgage rates. I’ve been saying for quite a while now that I think the whole housing market is depending on affordability, right? That is what ultimately everything comes down to these days is how affordable are homes for the average price investor for the average price American. And the answer right now is not very affordable. We’re near 40 year lows, 35 year lows for housing affordability. And so when we look at this survey, it’s really based, I think largely on people thinking rates are high right now and are going to stay high.
The reason I wanted to share this inflation report today is because a lot of what’s going to happen with affordability comes down to mortgage rates, which comes down to what the Fed does in some ways and comes down to inflation. Inflation really dictates mortgage rates in two ways. First, as I just mentioned, it influences what the Fed does and the Fed influences mortgage rates. So that’s one sort of less direct way that inflation influences mortgage rates, but there’s actually an even more influential meaning of the inflation report, and that is what it does to bond yields because bond yields are almost directly correlated with mortgage rates. And so when inflation fears go up, bond yields go and that takes mortgage rates up with them. So we want to be paying attention to what’s going on with the CPI, what’s going on with different measurements of inflation.
And just last week as of June 11th, we got data about consumer price index and what it shows was that inflation went up in May, but really only modestly inflation as measured by the CPI, which is a consumer price index went up to 2.4% year over year. So what that means is on average with the methodology that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses, which is complicated and a little bit confusing, but using the method that they use from this point last year to this point, prices on average have went up 2.4%. Now within that basket, that is a big average. And so within that average you see certain things that have had way more inflation over the last year and also certain things that have way less inflation. So just as an example, housing costs and shelter have had more inflation than 2.4%. Auto insurance I think led the way it was like 7.5% in terms of inflation over the last year.
Meanwhile, certain things like gasoline and airline tickets have actually fallen modestly. So take that all with a grain of salt because when you compare what’s going on with inflation on these reports to your life, you might not see it reflected. You probably have something that’s bothering you that’s gone up a lot. This happens to all of us, but that might not actually be the main thing that’s driving inflation. Or you may see something you care about that has gone up 7% when this thing is only showing 2.4%. But remember, this is what we call a weighted average. So it’s basically taking all of the things that are transacted on in the economy and averaging them out. So the fact that it went up is not great. You don’t want inflation to go up, but given the context of everything that’s going on right now, I was encouraged by this because tariffs sort of officially started going on a little bit in February and March, but really they started to go on in April.
Then there was a pause, there was all sorts of stuff going on. So I wasn’t necessarily expecting to see a huge uptick in tariff caused inflation just yet, but I’m glad we haven’t seen any basically because I do think we’ll see a little bit of uptick inflation over the next couple months. How much I kind of go back and forth on, I sort of debate this with myself. I do think there will be some upward pressure on prices, but I’m just not sure the American consumer can weather higher prices. Like yes, manufacturers, producers, businesses may want to pass along the increased input costs to their businesses in the form of tariffs onto the American consumer, but they might not be able to do that because people just might stop buying. And so I think there will be some offsetting effect of sort of the negative state I see the American consumer in helping to offset inflation a little bit.
So we’re definitely not out of the woods yet, but the fact that it didn’t go up just in the last month, I think that’s encouraging. And it’s also one of the main reasons that we did not see the Fed raise interest rates this week when they met because the Fed, as we’ve talked about, they have this sort of dual mandate of balancing inflation and the labor market. And although the labor market is starting to crack a little bit, the fact that inflation went up a little bit, probably the reason why they held steady for this month, most of the forecasts that I’ve seen expect that the Fed probably won’t raise rates until September, but things are so uncertain I wouldn’t count it out at this point. I would just say I’m going to look right before the Fed meeting every time they meet and look at inflation and look at the labor market.
If inflation stays muted and the labor market still shows some signs of cracking, I think we could see fed rate cuts this summer. But I agree, if you were just trying to assign probabilities to this, the most likely scenario is that fed rate cuts won’t come until at least the fall. Now of course for real estate investors, you’re probably going to have mixed reactions to this, right? Because a lot of people want the fed to cut rates, so mortgage rates will go down. But remember, the Fed doesn’t control rates. We saw the Fed cut rates last September and last October and rates only went up from there. And so I wouldn’t be holding your breath for the Fed and what they’re going to do. I would be more concerned about inflation and their impact on bond yields. And although those things are all kind of interconnected, the lower inflation is the better the outlook for mortgage rates, that to me is pretty clear.
If there is fear of inflation, it is going to prop up mortgage rates for the foreseeable future. I don’t know how long that will be, how high they will go, but that is just a relationship that we know about higher inflation fears, higher mortgage rates. If inflation fears start to cool, if we have another month where inflation is flat or declines, that will be a really good sign for mortgage rates. But again, I wouldn’t hold my breath just yet. I have said repeatedly and I still believe that rates are going to be pretty stable for the next couple of months in the high sixes and low sevens that’s probably going to stick around for a while unless inflation really starts to fall. And again, I’m not super concerned about inflation going up 0.1% last month, but it didn’t fall, it went up. And so that signals to the Fed and to bond investors like, Hey, you might want to wait and see what’s going on in inflation before you start pouring money into bonds or lowering interest rates.
And so this is not a concern all by itself, but it does probably mean we’re going to be stuck in the mortgage rate climate that we’re in right now for the foreseeable future. Alright, that’s what I got for you guys on mortgage rates. We’ll obviously be talking about this every week as we always do on this show, but that’s my latest take based on the most recent data we have after the break that’s coming up. I do want to share with you some other information about housing affordability because as I said, I think the whole housing market comes down to affordability and I have some data to share with you about how the average Americans are feeling about housing affordability. We’ll be right back.
Welcome back to On the Market. I’m Dave Meyer going through three big stories that I’ve been thinking about this week and I wanted to share with every one of you. We’ve talked about a survey that we got from Sessa and Resi Club. Then we talked about the most recent inflation report that came in from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Our last story today is no less important. It is a study that was done by Redfin. I love their data. They put out a survey that says Americans on torn on how immigration tariffs impact housing affordability. And I thought this data was super interesting because it seems people are very divided on how current administration policies are going to impact housing affordability. And honestly, I want to just open up a conversation about this. So if you’re watching on YouTube, definitely drop a comment or you can drop a comment on Spotify or just hit me up on Instagram.
I’m at the data de and let me know what you’re thinking about this. Basically what the survey shows is that over half of us homeowners and renters, strongly or somewhat agree with the following statement, less immigration will result in fewer construction workers and thereby fewer new homes, making homes more expensive. So half of the country is concerned that with deportations we’re going to get fewer construction workers. I don’t think it’s a secret that a lot of undocumented immigrants in the United States are in the construction field, and if they are not showing up to job sites or they’re actually being deported, that could impact the workforce, which could increase cost for builders. That could therefore mean they build a little bit less. And that would mean there’s this shortage that we’re in, the housing market shortage that we’re in and have been in for quite a long time might continue if that happens.
If there’s a shortage that drives up prices, right? This is supply and demand. And so about half of the country agrees with that line of thinking, but on the almost exact opposite side of this, not as many people, 38.5%. So instead of 50% we’re close to 40%, about 40% of people, and I’m rounding here of homeowners and renters, strongly or somewhat agree with the statement, less immigration will reduce demand for housing and make it more affordable. So the sort of counterpoint to the first thing that I said was that if there are less people coming into the country or there are actually deportations of people currently living in the country, there will be less demand for the existing housing units that we have and probably the existing rental units that we have making housing and rents more affordable. So I’m curious what you all think because obviously I think a lot of this probably falls along political lines, and I do not want this show to be political, but I want to open this conversation.
I trust that our audience here and on the market is able to look at objective information and think through this, not just on partisan lines, but actually just think about this from a logical perspective. And I’ve sort of been going back and forth on this, and I wonder if these two sort of contradictory ideas may actually balance themselves out because both ideas, at least in mine, have merit. If there are fewer immigrants coming into the country and if there are actually deportations in any significant way that will lower demand for housing, that makes sense. But at the same time, building could get more expensive. If the labor force shrinks, then we might have lower building supply. Those builders also might see less demand because there are less immigrants coming into the country and they might build less, which could prop up housing prices. And so I wonder if all of this will actually have any impact really at all on the housing market.
I’ve sort of been going back and forth since reading this article in my head, but I’m curious what you all think. So please make sure to leave a comment in the comment section wherever you’re listening or watching here. So that’s take on immigration. But there is another thing on tariffs, and this there is sort of more consensus about, so they asked the respondents to the survey to say they agree, strongly agree, disagree, or strongly disagree with the following statement, tariffs will cause price inflation and keep interest rates high. So 68% of people said yes to that. That is way higher than the immigration issue. That is nearly 70% of people agree with that. Only about 20% of people are neutral, and then only 13% are saying that they strongly or somewhat disagree. What I was saying earlier about inflation being tied to mortgage rates, 70% of people either strongly or somewhat agree with the statement that tariffs will cause price inflation.
So building goods will go up or inflation will just happen across the economy, and that will keep interest rates high. A lot of people believe that. Another tariff related question that was interesting too is they asked on tariffs will help boost the US economy so more people can afford homes. Only 35% of people agreed with that. So only about one third of people agree with tariffs. And again, I don’t know exactly the methodology behind this, but I do think these things are kind of interesting that most people, and it sort of jives with a lot of the other surveys I’ve seen, people are afraid of tariffs because it is a tax on American consumers. So they do feel that there’s inflation. But it is worth mentioning that 35% of people think that actually tariffs are going to help of home affordability because the US economy will grow that will put more money in people’s pockets and they’ll be able to afford homes more easily.
44% of people though disagree with that. So that one is split kind of evenly. So I just thought this was interesting and kind of wanted to open a conversation on the market community. So let me know in the comments because yes, I understand that some of this is polarizing and somewhat political, but I really think that as real estate investors and people who look at objective data and trends and economics and really want to understand this thing from all sides, I am looking forward to hearing your informed and logical opinions about what is going on here and what you think will happen due to lower immigration and due to tariffs in the housing market. Please let me know. I’m very curious to hear what you all think. Alright, that is what I got for you today on this episode of On the Market. Again, we see that a lot of investors are planning to grow their portfolios here in 2025.
We are seeing that inflation ticked up just a little bit. Nothing super concerning, but that’s probably going to leave us stuck in limbo in terms of market rates. And we are getting a very divided look at what investors and what homeowners expect will happen in the housing market due to lower immigration and increases in tariffs. I gave you all my opinion. Now it’s time for you to share yours in the comment section. So let me know what you’re thinking about these stories. Thank you all so much for listening to this episode of On The Market. I’m Dave Meyer. I’ll see you next time.

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This implementation guide is based on episode 558 of the Real Estate Rookie Podcast featuring Niti and Palak Shah, who transitioned from corporate life to building a $10 million real estate portfolio using the BRRRR method and their signature SCALE framework.

Define Your “Why” and Long-Term Vision

Start by understanding your purpose. Is it more family time? Financial independence? Freedom from the 9-to-5? Set a clear timeline for retirement or major life transitions. Work backward from your desired lifestyle to determine the number of properties or monthly cash flow required.

Action step: Write out your ideal day five years from now. Then calculate how many rental units you’d need to fund that lifestyle.

S = Scalable Acquisitions & Deal Analysis

Pick one or two ZIP codes. Define your ideal “property avatar” (e.g., 3 bed/2 bath, light rehab, no HOA). Build relationships with wholesalers, agents, and investors in those markets. The narrower your focus, the more efficient your deal pipeline becomes.

Action step: Create a spreadsheet with your property avatar, market data, and contact list for deal sources.

C = Construction Without the DIY

Use standardized finishes across all properties. Avoid hands-on rehabs. Find and vet at least 10 to 15 contractors, and always get multiple bids. Use a clear scope of work and frequent photo/video updates to keep projects on track.

Action step: Create a finish schedule template and pre-vetted materials list to give every contractor.

A = Add Cash Flow

Design rentals that command premium rents through small, strategic upgrades like washer/dryers, stainless steel appliances, and better lighting. Build systems for managing properties at scale, whether through a manager or virtual assistant.

Action step: Audit your existing or planned properties, and implement three to five small upgrades that boost rentability and tenant satisfaction.

L = Leverage With Commercial Financing

Use commercial loans to scale faster. Build a list of 30-90 banks and credit unions. Call each, ask about their BRRRR-friendly products, and log their terms in a spreadsheet. Focus on those that allow refinances based on appraised value, not purchase price.

Action step: Write a 30-second lender pitch. Build your bank list using Google and ChatGPT. Start making calls.

E = Exponential Growth

Exponential growth happens when you:

  1. Master deal analysis
  2. Master creative financing
  3. Build and manage a top-notch team

Build repeatable systems for each. Document everything: how you find deals, manage projects, screen tenants, and communicate with contractors. Refine your process every 90 days.

Action step: Schedule a monthly review of your processes and KPIs. Implement improvements and remove bottlenecks.

Master Appraisals for Successful BRRRRs

Appraisals can make or break your BRRRR. Create a professional packet for the appraiser with before/after photos, renovation scope, receipts, and comps. Hand-deliver if local, and walk them through key upgrades.

Action step: Use Canva or Google Docs to build your appraisal packet template. Include comps, scope, and cost breakdowns.

Build Systems, Not Just Skills

Create workflows for every part of the BRRRR: deal analysis, rehab, leasing, financing, and refi. Use tools like Google Sheets, WhatsApp, and CRMs to stay organized and offload tasks.

Action step: Document your process for managing a property, from acquisition to stabilization. Identify what can be delegated.

De-Risk Through Education and Community

Continue leveling up through books, courses, and mentorship. Join a mastermind, find accountability partners, and always surround yourself with people further along the journey.

Action step: Attend at least one meetup or virtual real estate event per month. Share your goals publicly to build accountability.

Execute Relentlessly

Perfection is the enemy of progress. The key to success isn’t more theory—it’s action. Start small, learn as you go, and build systems that help you scale without burning out.

Action step: Set a 90-day goal: analyze 50 deals, make three offers, and close on one property.

Want to hear the full story and details straight from Niti and Palak? Listen to episode 558 of the Real Estate Rookie Podcast to hear how they built a $10M portfolio and how you can implement the same steps starting today.\

The Real Estate Rookie Podcast

New to real estate investing and not sure where to get started? Join Ashley Kehr and Tony J Robinson every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday as they break down the basics with real-world deal analysis, investor interviews, and listener Q&A. Tune into the BiggerPockets Rookie Podcast to learn about real estate investing for beginners and get inspired by newbies who are making it happen.



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If nothing else, the “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act is definitely big, at over a thousand pages long. 

Critics on both sides of the aisle have slammed the bill for setting up unchecked deficit spending. Republican senators will likely rework the bill to reduce that budget deficit, although true fiscal conservatives look increasingly rare these days. 

As a real estate investor, what provisions in the bill should you start preparing for now? Keep an eye on these likely tax changes. 

Plan for Renewed Bonus Depreciation

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) allowed real estate investors to take up to 100% depreciation within the first year of buying some properties. That has been phasing out, however. It’s down to 40% this year and scheduled to drop to 20% next year before disappearing entirely in 2027. 

In the co-investing club I invest through, we’ve enjoyed bonus depreciation in our own hands-off real estate investments. It’s enabled us to show huge “losses” on our tax returns, even though we typically collect 5% to 16% in cash flow distributions in real life. 

Bonus depreciation also makes the “lazy 1031 exchange” strategy even more effective. Because I invest $5,000 each month in new investments through the co-investing club, I never have a shortage of new depreciation, even as older investments sell and the profits pay out. 

The new tax bill would renew bonus depreciation at 100% through Jan. 1, 2030. That would make the kinds of passive real estate investments I love even more tax-friendly. 

Rethink Your Roth Strategy

The Yale Budget Lab forecasts a U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio of 183% by 2054 if the new tax bill passes. Even without the deficit-laden bill, the debt-to-GDP ratio would still surge to a worrying 142%. 

The bottom line? The federal government just keeps on spending like a teenager with daddy’s credit card. At some point, the music will stop, and taxpayers will be left holding a huge bill that can no longer be kicked down the road. 

When that time comes, Congress will have to do one of two things: ugly tax hikes or ugly budget cuts. They’ll probably do some combination of both, and it will hurt—a lot. 

And yes, I realize the government can just print money and inflate away some of the problem (which they inevitably will, to some extent) until no one wants to buy Treasury bonds anymore, because their value evaporates from inflation. 

Where I’m going with all this is that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) will drive down tax rates to the lowest they’re likely to be in our lifetimes. By that logic, you should max out your Roth retirement accounts to get taxes out of the way now, forever. Your contributions will compound tax-free, and you’ll avoid paying taxes on withdrawals later, when tax rates have risen. 

As a final thought, you can invest in passive real estate investments through a self-directed Roth IRA.

Review Your HSA Strategy

Health savings accounts (HSAs) come with even better tax benefits than Roth retirement accounts. You get to deduct the contributions now, they compound tax-free, and you don’t pay any taxes on withdrawals either. 

That makes them useful not just for health savings, but also for retirement investing. After all, you’ll have no shortage of health-related expenses in retirement. 

The OBBBA doubles the annual contribution limit for HSAs, from $4,300 to $8,600 ($17,100 for families). Unfortunately for higher earners, the ability to contribute starts phasing out for Americans earning over $75,000 ($150,000 for married couples).

The tax benefits on these accounts are too sweet to ignore, so keep an eye on the final changes to HSAs.  

Act Now for Clean Energy Upgrades

The current version of the bill that passed the House scraps the residential clean energy credits. Currently, property owners can offset 30% of the cost of clean energy upgrades such as solar panels, batteries, and geothermal pumps with a tax credit. Companies that lease this equipment also currently qualify for a 30% tax credit. 

Under the current bill, those tax credits would expire at the end of 2025. If you’ve been thinking about making these upgrades to your properties, make them now to lock in your tax credit. 

Reconsider Itemizing Deductions

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 doubled the standard deduction, although that’s scheduled to revert after 2025. The OBBBA would make the higher standard deduction permanent, and add an extra $1,000 from 2025-2028 ($2,000 for married couples). 

That said, the OBBBA would lift the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions from $10,000 to $40,000. For many higher earners, especially in high-tax states, that would change the calculus on itemizing versus taking the standard deduction. 

If you pay high state and local taxes, start tracking all deductible expenses now. It may make more sense to itemize deductions for 2025 than to take the standard deduction. 

As part of that conversation, charitable gifts would come with better tax benefits again for families who itemize. 

Revisit Your Estate Plan

Likewise, the TCJA roughly doubled the estate and gift tax exemption, currently $13.99 million in 2025 ($27.98 million for married couples). That higher exemption is scheduled to drop back down for 2026, however. 

The OBBBA would keep the exemption higher, pushing it to $15 million per person in 2026 and indexing to inflation thereafter. 

As a real estate investor, you may end up leaving considerable assets behind for your children and other heirs. The higher exemption could make it advantageous to start giving more to your children while you’re still alive, or to otherwise restructure how you plan to leave wealth for the next generation. 

After the final bill passes, consider speaking with an estate planning attorney if you hope to leave significant assets to your heirs. 

Meet With a CPA After the Final Bill Passes

At this point, we don’t know which provisions will be scrapped or tweaked by the Senate. But some form of this tax bill is almost certain to become law. 

When that happens, sit down for a powwow with your accountant. Talk through all these strategy changes outlined—and whatever others your CPA suggests. You may not need to change your strategy at all. More likely, you’ll want to make at least one or two course corrections. 

Who knows? Maybe you’ll find a way to convert some of your income to classify as “tips” or “overtime” to avoid paying taxes on it, since apparently some types of active income will be taxable, while others won’t.

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You don’t need a dozen doors or a beachfront empire to buy back your time. The truth is financial freedom with short-term rentals doesn’t require a massive portfolio. 

It just takes an innovative, intentional plan. One that builds momentum year after year. For me, that plan has always been simple: five short-term rentals in five years.

Not five in five days. Not five by next Tuesday because someone on Instagram said it was easy. I’m talking about five real, income-producing properties, built one thoughtful move at a time. No quitting your job. No draining your savings. No maxing out 10 credit cards.

I know it works because it’s the exact path I took. I didn’t start with a pile of cash or a team of experts. What I had was a strategy and the discipline to follow it. 

And here’s where it might surprise you: You’re not buying a new property every year. In fact, in year two, you’re not buying anything at all. That’s the year you get paid to manage someone else’s Airbnb. No mortgage or furnishing costs. Just real cash flow from someone else’s property, with systems you’ve already built.

This isn’t a story about overnight success. It’s about stacking wins over time. So, if you want a roadmap that works in the real world, keep reading. I’m going to walk you through how to build a five-property portfolio without the burnout, hype, or financial chaos. One year at a time.

Find out about:

  • The low-money-down move to get your first rental
  • How co-hosting makes you money without owning real estate
  • Why DSCR loans are the cheat code no one talks about
  • And how to turn all this into a five-property portfolio — even if you’re starting from scratch

If you’re tired of watching people show off their $3 million beach house and calling it a “beginner deal,” you’re in the right place.

Let’s break it down year by year.

Year 1: Just Get in the Game

This first year is all about planting the flag. It doesn’t have to be perfect, and it definitely won’t be your forever property. The goal is to get in the game. Everyone’s starting point is different, which is why I won’t pretend there’s one perfect way to begin. 

When I started in 2017, I purchased a small condo and converted it into a short-term rental. That was a different era. You could throw an air mattress into a room with four walls, snap a few photos, and suddenly you were making money on Airbnb. 

Things have changed since then, but the opportunity remains. You just have to be more strategic.

In today’s market, there are still ways to get your foot in the door, but every option comes with trade-offs. That’s the reality of real estate and business. It’s never all upside. The key is knowing which strategy aligns with your situation, risk tolerance, and available resources.

Here are four solid paths to consider, depending on where you’re starting from.

Option 1: House hack a duplex

Live in one unit, rent out the other as an STR.

  • Use an FHA loan (just 3.5% down)
  • Low barrier to entry
  • Get hands-on experience while living on-site
  • Cons: Location may not be ideal for you, depending on the market

Option 2: Vacation home loan

Purchase a second home in a vacation area with a 10%-15% down payment.

  • Use it just 14 days a year at least, or 10% of rented nights
  • Better terms compared to investment loans
  • Cons: Higher down payment, not full-time

Option 3: Rental arbitrage

Lease a unit, furnish it, and list it online.

  • Own the cash flow, not the property
  • Low upfront cost, high ROI potential
  • Cons: No equity being built, the landlord makes the terms

Option 4: Partner up

Find a money partner: You do the work, they bring the capital.

  • Split profits 50/50
  • You provide the sweat equity needed, but not your own funds
  • Cons: Hard to find partners with no experience

Year 2: Co-Host to Build Cash Flow

Now, we get creative and start to use the knowledge that’s been gained. No purchase this year; instead, you co-host a property. Now that you have some experience and can show your results to others, you can find co-hosting clients to boost your cash flow with little expenses on your end. 

What is co-hosting?

You manage someone else’s Airbnb. They own it, you run it.

  • You earn 15% to 30% of the gross revenue.
  • No mortgage, no furnishing, no problem

If the property grosses $4,000 a month, you are likely earning between $800 and $1,200 with no upfront capital or mortgage. That is the power of co-hosting. But before you dive in, there is an important detail to consider: Your role might be classified differently depending on your state.

Some states draw a legal distinction between being a property manager and being a co-host, and that classification can impact what licenses or agreements you need. Make sure to research your local laws so you are fully informed.

I am not a lawyer, although I did once win a traffic court case representing myself, which felt very official at the time, but here is the general rule of thumb: The legal gray area usually centers around whether you are collecting rent on the owner’s behalf. 

On Airbnb, their co-host platform simplifies this. You do not collect payments. Airbnb sends you your share automatically. VRBO is less streamlined, so you will typically need to invoice the owner at the end of each month based on your agreed-upon percentage.

If you are using a direct booking site and acting as the merchant of record, meaning guests are paying you instead of the owner, that is where things can get more complicated. In those cases, you may be stepping into formal property management territory and should take a closer look at your state’s specific requirements.

Why co-hosting works:

  • Get hands-on operations experience
  • Build a monthly income
  • Test and scale systems
  • Build your STR resume

How to land your first co-host client

If you’re serious about landing your first co-hosting gig, don’t just wait for someone to ask for help; find the opportunity yourself. One of the best ways to do this is by searching Zillow for furnished long-term rentals in STR-friendly markets. These are often second homes or investment properties that could be easily converted into short-term rentals with the right operator. 

Reach out to the owner or property manager and pitch your co-hosting services. Share your experience, explain what they could potentially earn if the unit were listed on Airbnb or Vrbo instead, and break down exactly how you’d handle everything from guest messaging to pricing optimization.

You can also search Facebook Marketplace for furnished rentals or short-term rental listings that are underperforming. If the photos are subpar, the calendar is wide open, or the reviews are inconsistent, you can turn that property around. Use tools like PropStream to identify the property owner, then contact them directly. Tell them what you’ve done, what you can do for their listing, and how much more they could be making. 

Co-hosting is part operations, part sales, and if you’re willing to hustle, you can build a portfolio without ever signing a mortgage.

Year 3: Buy Again With a DSCR Loan

By the time you reach year 3, you’ve probably already made a few big moves in life. Maybe you’ve bought a new primary residence. Perhaps you’ve purchased a car, paid for a wedding, or taken on some other form of debt. And now, when you go to a traditional lender to try and buy property No. 2, you hear the dreaded words: “Your debt-to-income ratio is too high.”

This is where most people hit a wall, but it’s also where the strategy shifts.

Enter the Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) loan. It’s one of the best tools in the short-term rental playbook, especially if your income doesn’t reflect the cash flow you’re generating. Instead of looking at your W2s or tax returns, DSCR lenders focus on two things: does the property pay for itself, and what is your personal credit score? 

Why DSCR loans are powerful:

  • No personal income verification
  • Perfect for self-employed or W2-free investors
  • Can use STR income projections

How to fund the down payment

You’ve got a few solid options, depending on how creative you want to get. Start with the profits from your first two years. If you’ve been running your initial property well and co-hosting another, there’s a good chance you’ve built up some cash reserves that can be reinvested.

You may even be able to get a business loan to use for it if you have been handling your books correctly. These typically have higher interest rates but could be a valuable asset with the right deal in front of you. 

Another route is a cash-out refinance or a home equity line of credit (HELOC) on your first property, especially if it’s appreciated, has been renovated, or you’ve paid down the loan. And if you’re still short, this is where your growing track record comes into play. By now, you’ve got real results to show. Use them to bring in a money partner who wants a piece of the next deal without doing the work.

This becomes your second-owned property. At this point, you have three active income streams.

Year 4: Stack Another STR

By now, the gears are turning. You have income coming in, systems running in the background, and enough experience under your belt to start making smarter, more confident moves. You are no longer guessing. You are operating. 

Year four is when you start to feel the shift. Instead of scraping together funds or hoping lenders will take a chance on you, you are building with momentum. This is the moment to add another short-term rental, not because you feel pressure to scale but because your business is ready to support it.

There are a few ways to approach this, depending on how your current properties are performing and what kind of opportunity you want to pursue next.

Option 1: Reinvest profits

If you have managed your cash flow well over the past few years, you may already have enough saved for another down payment. This is the slow and steady path. Take the income your properties are generating and use it to fund your next purchase.

Option 2: Raise capital

At this stage, you have results. You have reviews, income statements, and a proven model. Use your track record to attract a private money partner or investor. People are far more likely to put money into something real than something theoretical.

Option 3: Add a unique stay

This is where you can lean into creativity. Consider something that stands out in the market, like a glamping dome, tiny home, prefab structure, or container cabin. 

These stays often cost less to develop but can earn more per night because of their uniqueness. They are easier to market and brand, and more likely to catch attention on social media. When done well, they create both revenue and reach.

No matter which path you take, this is the year you move from operator to builder. You are not just adding another property. You are expanding your brand, diversifying your income, and proving that your short-term rental business can grow beyond the hustle of those early years.

Year 5: Flex Year and Finish Strong

By the time you reach year five, the hard part is behind you. You have a real business now. You are no longer just trying to break in—you are choosing how to grow. This is your flex year, the one where you get to finish strong and set the tone for what comes next.

You have options:

  • Buy another property using a DSCR loan, now backed by experience and income.
  • Turn one of your co-hosted units into an equity partnership.
  • Build something unique on land you already own.
  • Expand into full-time STR management by helping other owners succeed.

No matter which path you take, the foundation is already in place. By the end of year five, you have likely built five or more streams of income, established ownership in two to three properties, and gained hands-on experience managing a diverse mix of short-term rentals. 

You have systems that work, automation tools that save time, and a small team that helps keep everything running smoothly. This is no longer trial and error. It is a business that is built to last.

This is no longer just a side hustle. It is a growing business with real momentum. Now, the only question is how far you want to take it.



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In a world where economic headlines can shift by the day and traditional investments seem increasingly unpredictable, investors are searching for smarter, more secure ways to grow their wealth. 

Ignite Funding offers a compelling solution: trust deed investments backed by real estate. However, what truly distinguishes Ignite is its ability to protect investor capital through a disciplined, multilayered risk mitigation strategy. From strategic diversification and underwriting rigor to proactive default management and hands-on investor support, Ignite Funding offers a stable, income-generating opportunity rooted in real assets.

We’ll explore four key pillars of Ignite Funding’s approach: 

  • Diversification and collateralization
  • Thorough underwriting and borrower vetting
  • Active default response
  • Consistent passive income

All these factors are designed to give investors peace of mind and strong financial returns.

Diversification and Collateralization

One of the foundational pillars of Ignite Funding’s risk mitigation strategy is diversification. As any seasoned investor knows, diversification isn’t just a buzzword; it’s a safeguard. 

Ignite Funding provides access to real estate trust deed investments across a broad mix of commercial asset classes, including residential developments, multifamily units, industrial properties, and retail centers. More importantly, these investments span multiple geographic markets, primarily throughout the western United States.

By spreading investor capital across a wide array of projects and locations, Ignite significantly reduces the risk tied to any single market or property type. For example, a downturn in one regional housing market may be offset by strong performance in another. Similarly, different asset classes often respond differently to economic cycles, adding another layer of protection. This multidimensional diversification is essential to creating a balanced, resilient portfolio.

Yet diversification is only part of the equation. Every investment Ignite Funding facilitates is backed by tangible real estate collateral, secured in the form of a first-position trust deed. That means investors have a direct legal claim to the underlying property (land or structure) in the event the borrower defaults. This isn’t just paper equity; it’s a real asset that can be leveraged, foreclosed, and ultimately sold to recover funds.

In traditional investing, volatility is often accepted as the cost of potential reward. But with Ignite’s model, investors can participate in the strength of real estate while minimizing exposure to dramatic swings. This combination of broad diversification and real estate-backed collateral gives investors peace of mind that their capital is not only working, but is also protected.

Thorough Underwriting and Borrower Vetting

At the heart of Ignite Funding’s investment process lies an uncompromising commitment to rigorous underwriting. Before a single dollar of investor capital is allocated, every potential loan undergoes a meticulous due diligence process. This isn’t just a paper review; it’s a boots-on-the-ground approach that examines every facet of a project’s feasibility, from market trends and property appraisals to borrower history and exit strategy viability.

One of the key benchmarks Ignite Funding employs to limit downside risk is its conservative loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. Most loans are structured at 60% to 70% of the property’s appraised value. This ensures borrowers maintain significant equity in the deal, effectively keeping “skin in the game.” The lower the LTV, the greater the cushion for investors if property values fluctuate or the borrower fails to perform.

But underwriting is only part of the equation. Equally important is the borrower selection process. Ignite Funding exclusively lends to real estate developers and operators with a proven track record of successful project execution. These aren’t first-time flippers or speculative investors, but experienced professionals who have consistently demonstrated their ability to bring projects to a successful completion, even in challenging market conditions.

This dual-layered approach, thorough underwriting, and selective borrower vetting provide a robust line of defense for investor capital. It’s how Ignite avoids overexposure to underperforming projects and why investors can confidently participate in high-yield trust deed investments without sacrificing peace of mind.

Active Default Response

While most investors hope a project never veers off course, Ignite Funding prepares for every scenario (including the unexpected). A key component of its risk mitigation strategy is a clearly defined default management process that prioritizes investor capital above all else.

If a borrower defaults on a loan, Ignite Funding doesn’t sit back and hope for the best. Instead, they step in immediately with authority and precision. Because each loan is secured by a first-position trust deed, Ignite has the legal right to take control of the underlying property. That means they can initiate foreclosure, assume project oversight, and push forward with completing or selling the project if necessary.

What sets Ignite apart is its deep familiarity with each project it funds. The team doesn’t just underwrite loans. It thoroughly understands the scope, timeline, and economics of each deal. This allows it to make swift, informed decisions in the event of borrower nonperformance.

One of the clearest demonstrations of this strategy in action is Ignite’s history of recovering (and, in some cases, enhancing) the value of defaulted properties. By leveraging their in-house expertise and third-party professionals, they can reposition troubled assets, complete stalled developments, and return capital to investors with minimal disruption.

In the volatile world of real estate lending, it’s not about avoiding every risk, but knowing how to respond when risks become reality. Ignite Funding’s proactive default management gives investors confidence that their capital is not only secured by property, but actively protected by a team that knows how to manage adversity.

Consistent Passive Income, With Hands-On Support

One of the most appealing benefits of investing through Ignite Funding is the opportunity to earn reliable, passive income without the daily burdens of property management. Investors typically receive interest payments monthly, often generating annual yields in the range of 10% to 12%. These returns are not speculative. They’re backed by active, income-producing real estate loans secured by first-position trust deeds.

But Ignite’s value doesn’t stop at attractive income potential. What truly sets the company apart is the hands-on support provided to investors at every step. From the moment you schedule an appointment, you’re matched with a licensed Business Development Executive who takes the time to understand your unique investment goals and tailor recommendations accordingly. Whether you’re brand new to trust deed investing or looking to diversify a large portfolio, Ignite ensures you receive personalized guidance.

Once your investment is in motion, the Client Services team steps in to provide ongoing support. This includes managing your investment documentation, alerting you to upcoming loan payoffs, and presenting opportunities to reinvest your funds seamlessly. For many investors, this proactive engagement eliminates the guesswork often associated with alternative investments.

Ignite also prioritizes investor education, offering webinars, FAQs, one-on-one consultations, and updates on market conditions. This educational layer empowers investors to make informed decisions while growing their real estate-backed portfolio over time.

The result? A truly passive investment experience that doesn’t sacrifice transparency or control. With consistent monthly income and responsive support, Ignite Funding makes it possible to achieve financial goals with confidence and peace of mind.

Final Thoughts

For investors looking to step beyond the volatility of public markets and into the tangible security of real estate-backed investments, Ignite Funding offers a refreshingly conservative yet consistently rewarding alternative. Their model combines old-school due diligence with modern-day responsiveness, giving you both confidence and clarity in every investment decision.

By spreading risk across diversified projects, securing each investment with first-position trust deeds, vetting only experienced borrowers, and delivering consistent passive income with personalized support, Ignite Funding makes trust deed investing accessible and reliable.

Ready to explore how your portfolio could benefit from Ignite Funding’s proven approach? Visit IgniteFunding.com to learn more, or schedule a consultation with their team today.

Ignite Funding, LLC | NVMBL #311 | AZ CMB-0932150 | Money invested through a mortgage broker is not guaranteed to earn any interest and is not insured. Prior to investing, investors must be provided applicable disclosure documents.



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Are rising interest rates putting pressure on the housing market and national debt? Join Dave Meyer as he dives into the implications of the U.S. national debt on real estate investors and everyday Americans. With the debt now surpassing the nation’s GDP, real estate experts are concerned about how this could influence housing prices and mortgage rates. Learn about the historical trends and discover how political dynamics play a role in shaping the debt trajectory. How will soaring interest payments impact future planning for investors? Tune in for insights into the possible scenarios and their effect on the housing market.

Dave:
Let’s talk about the national debt. It has been a big topic and a big problem for a long, long time, but in recent weeks it’s been making more and more news and fears of the ever increasing debt are starting to have real life impacts on the economy and the risk for potential impacts is growing more and more. So today we’re doing a deep dive into how the national debt impacts everyday people and investors. Hey everyone, it’s Dave Meyer. Welcome to On the Market. Thank you all so much for being here. You may notice if you’re watching this on YouTube, don’t have the usual background going on right now. I moved into my new house just a couple of days ago, so please bear with me while I rebuild my studio. But hopefully our video and audio quality are all fine for our big topic today.
’cause today’s topic is really important. The national debt, you’ve probably heard about it, you probably know that we got a lot of it. We have a lot of debt in this country, but I’m not sure everyone fully understands what it means that we have this large national debt and how this actually might play out logistically in the lives of ordinary Americans. And specifically how this could impact real estate investors and the housing market. Because I think as real estate investors, we typically, most of us know something about debt of real estate is a highly leveraged asset class. Most of us use mortgages in one shape or form during our investing career. And we know that debt can actually be used beneficially when it’s done in a responsible way, but debt can also be quite risky. So today I’m not just gonna be talking about sort of like the big picture number of how much debt we’re in.
You could look that up. I’m going to instead give you a little bit more history on how we got to where we are today, what’s happening in the current environment and how a ballooning national debt could spill into the everyday lives of us in the future. So let’s jump into this thing and we’re gonna start first and foremost with just what is the debt? Let’s just get that number out of the way. It is, as of right now, $36 trillion approximately, and this is a wildly huge number. I think a lot of times, especially in recent years, we get used to talking about numbers like trillions of dollars. That’s not normal. That is an enormous amount of money that we have $36 trillion. Just to put this in context, the gross domestic product, the GDP of the United States, basically the entire economy, the size of the entire US economy in one year is $29 trillion.
So if you’re doing the math in your head, you probably noticed that our debt is now bigger than the entire GDP, the entire economic output of the entire country for one year. So that’s where we’re at. But in a vacuum, just knowing $36 trillion doesn’t really help. So let’s just dig into this thing and hear what it actually means. So first and foremost, let’s just talk about like how this even claimed to be like how do we have so much debt? The fact is that the government of the United States is like most people, they can borrow money and the government does this a little bit differently. They’re not, you know, using credit cards or taking out mortgages. They do this in the form of issuing bonds. So you might hear this is called bonds or treasuries, kinda the same thing. Basically the government goes out and asks investors, do you want to lend money to the US government?
And there are auctions and basically people bid on these treasuries. So when you hear that concept, if you hear a bond or a treasury, that’s basically what’s going on. It’s basically an investor lending money to the US government. It’s not all that different from a mortgage where a bank is lending money to someone to go buy a house. When you buy a bond or you buy a treasury, what you’re actually doing is lending money to the US government and the government has to pay back that loan over time with interest. And they do this in different formats. You might hear of 30 year treasuries. The one we talk about most of the time on the show and is most relevant to real estate investor is the 10 year treasury. There are short term treasuries, but all of these things are the basic same thing. It is the US government borrowing money from investors.
And when I say investors, that could be you or me. It could be a big institution, it could be a hedge fund, it could be a foreign government. All of those count as bond investors. But whenever you hear the idea of treasuries, it’s someone lending money to the US government. So that’s the national debt and it it worth mentioning that the US is hardly the only country that has a large national debt. There are different countries have different philosophies about this, but it is not unusual for the United States to have some amount of debt. And economists generally debate how much debt is responsible and possible. But just going back in time in the United States, we’ve pretty much always had some level of national debt. So as I said, our debt is big though right now relative to historical averages and there are different ways to measure this.
So one of the way I’m gonna use in this episode is just relating the size of our debt to GDP, our gross domestic product. Right now it’s at 128%. So it is bigger than GDP. I think it’s kind of helpful to compare this to another time where our debt was this big using this metric which was right after World War ii and maybe that doesn’t strike you as odd. It does to me though because wartime is usually when you know the governments of any country, not just the US issues debt because they have a lot of things to pay for during war that is an emergency, right? And so you are willing to spend more than you earn during that time because you need to go win that war. But right now we are not in wartime. And so the fact that we have this GDP is notable and we’ll get to what that all means in a minute.
But another important metric here when we talk about the debt is not just how it relates to GDP, but it’s just how much interest we’re paying. If you’re a real estate investor, you know that principal and interest is one of your biggest expenses. And in the US the interest just on our national debt is rapidly becoming one of the biggest sources of expenses for the entire US government. So when you look at how much interest we’re paying, again, this is a loan so we have to pay interest to our lenders. The United States back in 2020 was paying $345 billion a year in interest. That’s a lot. 345 billion, that’s a third of a trillion dollars. But fast forward to 2024 last year, just four years later, it’s up to almost $900 billion just in interest. That is money that is not being put to use on any sort of spending or really any productive use other than paying back interest.
And again, some level of debt can be beneficial but obviously this is a very large number When we talk about how much the US is spending on interest at this point, when you look at it, it’s actually quite interesting to look at sort of the budget and how much money is going towards interest payments. And you can see that the big buckets are still Medicare, Medicaid and social security. That makes up about 50% just roughly, I’m gonna use round numbers here, but that makes up about 50% of spending in the United States over the last couple years. So half of it just goes to what a lot of politicians and people call entitlements. So these healthcare systems and social security then for example, we have other things like national defense, which is 13%, but just after defense 13%, which the US spends a lot of money just after that interest on our debt, 11% of our budget every year in the United States goes to interest payments, which is just wild.
And so I just wanna sort of paint the picture of where we’re at. More than 10% of our budget every single year go to interest payments. We are now higher debt to GDP ratio than we were pushed World War ii. And again, in a minute we are going to talk about what this all means. But I kind of just want to take one brief moment here to just talk about why we’re in so much debt and how this has sort of gotten to where we are. So that’s a good question, right? Why are we in so much debt ? Well in the US we we tend to like two things. One is spending money and we also generally speaking compared to the rest of the world, like low taxes. And I am not gonna spend this episode getting into the merits of each of these ideas.
But I will just say I think we can all intuitively sort of understand that those two things are at odds, right? It is difficult to spend a lot of money as a government but not to collect a lot of revenue in the form of taxes. That’s going to put you in a deficit. We like spending money as a government, but we wanna keep our revenues which are taxes low, that leads to a deficit. We are basically as a country in a situation we are, we are spending more than we earn. It’s, it’s pretty plain and simple. Now, you know, I try not to get too much into politics on this show, but I do think it is worth mentioning because there is a lot of finger pointing and blaming around the national debt that happens politically in this country. I have dug into this, I’ve looked a lot at it.
And all of the data shows both parties do this. Like this is just something that going back for a very long time, both political parties are responsible roughly equally responsible for contributing to the national debt. Going all the way back to 1913, I actually looked at this. I looked and found some studies that show Republican administrations versus Democratic administration and how much they have contributed to the national debt per term. So per presidential term and Republicans come to 1.39 trillion, Democrats are just a little bit lower at 1.22 trillion. But you know from a historical sort of data perspective, it’s roughly equal, right? They’re very close to one another. Both parties are doing it. Now how they contribute to the debt is a little bit different. Republicans tend to contribute to the debt by lowering taxes. That’s lowering what the US government earns essentially. Meanwhile, democrats tend to contribute to the deficit by increasing spending.
But either way, regardless we get more debt, we as Americans have been saddled with more debt. Now of course over the long course of history there have been wildly different times of debt. Like I, I actually looked at which president contributed to the most debt. There’s one that just is so far in front of everyone else, but it makes sense. It’s Franklin d Roosevelt because he was the president during World War ii, he actually increased the deficit by about 800%. The only one who even comes close to that is Woodrow Wilson who is the president during World War I. Those two stand out in a totally different category of contributing to the debt than any other president. After that you actually get a lot of modern presidents, which I think is really interesting. It’s not really correlated to one party or the other, it’s just a lot of the most recent presidents have contributed the most to the debt.
So after that we have Reagan, George W. Bush, Obama, HW Bush Trump during his first term, Nixon Biden, Jimmy Carter, bill Clinton. So as you can see, this trend has basically accelerated recently where pretty much all presidents over the last couple of decades have contributed considerably to the debt way more than what we were doing in the 17, 18 hundreds, early 19 hundreds. And there’s a lot of reasons for that, right? The US is positioned in the global has totally changed. We have a totally different economy. But my point here is I just wanna show both parties do it and it has gotten worse recently regardless of what party is in power. So given this, given the fact that debt has existed in the United States for a long time and you know it’s been going up pretty rapidly, you know the last time we didn’t have an annual deficit was during in Bill Clinton in the late nineties. So it has been going up, our national debt has been going up consistently for 25 years. So why is this becoming an issue now? Like if we’ve had all this debt for 25 years, like haven’t we figured out how to deal with it? Why is this becoming more and more of an issue in today’s day and age? I’m gonna get into that but we do need to take a quick break. We’ll be right back.
Welcome back to today’s on the market episode. I’m Dave Meyer and I’m here talking about the national debt, how it’s come about, what it is. And now I wanna sort of like turn our attention to why this is becoming an issue right now. There are many reasons and there are probably people screaming at their computers or their phones right now saying it’s been an issue all 25 years. And, and I agree the debt debt is a serious issue that we all need to be talking about, but it is sort of like reentering the news right now. And that’s largely in part because of the, the government is doing its budgeting and Trump and the GOP are working on their one big beautiful bill act which has a lot of spending and tax implications, which of course will either positively or negatively impact the national debt.
And so we’re naturally talking about this right now first and foremost just because like this is what’s going on in the government and so what is decided in that bill is going to have consequences for the national debt. We’ll talk about that in just a little bit. But the other reason I think at least for me it is getting more serious is because interest rates have gone up a lot, right? Because as real estate investors we know that we are impacted this because mortgage rates have gone up a lot. But remember our national debt means that the US government is a borrower too and their interest rates are also going up. We had been in the United States in a period of very low borrowing costs for quite a while from about 2007 into 2023 or so. We had relatively low bond yields and they’re still not really high in you know, historical context but you know, the government was getting money 10 year loans for 2% or 3%.
Now it’s up to about 4.4% that is the yield on a 10 year US treasury right now. But that is up. And so the fact that we are borrowing money at the same pace but the interest rate that we’re paying on that borrowed money is going up means that more and more we are gonna be devoting more of our resources to servicing that debt and that means that that money can’t go elsewhere. Basically this just means that going forward if we keep, the amount of interest we pay is gonna continue to go up. And of course there are ways this could change, right? Interest rates could go down, bond yields could fall, revenues could go up. But as it stands today, like just if you look at what’s happening today and you’re not just sort of like forecasting what could happen in the future, if you look at where we stand today and the likely path, if nothing big changes, our interest payments are going to go up and it’s going to continuously be a more and more share of our annual budget, right?
Just think about this because we have 10 year notes, right, that were issued right now in 2015 at maybe a two point half percent. So if the government needs to rebar, they pay that money back, right? And they need to rebar money here in 2025, they’re gonna be paying considerably more for that refinance, right? As real estate investors, we can kind of understand this. That is what’s happening to the US government more and more and that’s why this is becoming a more pressing issue because those interest rates are going up and sort of forcing I think more serious conversation about the national debt. Now some people might be thinking wow, well maybe we just borrow more, right? Can we just borrow more money to to pay that interest? And that’s honestly what we’ve been doing. Sure you could do that, but it means that’s gonna be at a higher and higher rate.
And as we’re going to talk about, you can probably already see where this is going that that can sort of snowball, right? You’re borrowing money to pay more interest. That’s like kind of paying off one credit card with another credit card. Not sure that’s the best idea, you know that’s the TLDR here. But hopefully you can see that this, this might not be the best situation. So that’s where we are today. But I think it’s sort of important for us to all just take a minute and talk about how this situation could actually potentially get worse and maybe potentially compound because the situation we’re in today, I will say that it’s like relatively stable. I do not think it’s a good situation that we have this much debt, but it’s not like there’s this huge acute issue where the national debt is going to crater the US economy tomorrow.
I don’t think it’s likely to really have huge negative impacts in the next couple of weeks. It could in the months or years. I don’t know. There’s some dynamics that we’ll talk about in just a minute, but as of today, like right, this isn’t impacting you and me like in some huge acute way, but there is a potential that it could like this, this could get worse and it could potentially get worse rapidly. I’m not trying to scare people or fear monger, but I do think it’s sort of important for everyone to understand how different scenarios with the debt could play out. So lemme just share some thoughts with you. We, we’ve talked about this, but the rate the government pays to borrow money on their treasuries is partially set by the Fed, right? The, the federal funds rate, which the Fed controls is important to how much the government is paying to borrow money, but it is really up to investors.
The question here is like are you willing to lend the US government? And if so, what interest rate are you going to demand in order to give up that money to the US government for that period of time? Right now if you’re gonna lend to the government, the yield that you will get is about 4.4%. But that’s not fixed, right? It’s not like the Fed says it’s 4.4%. They can influence that in ways, but it actually just goes up and down in the free market based on supply and demand. It’s how much treasuries, how much debt is the US government trying to borrow and how much willingness is there in the investor community to actually make those loans to the US government? And this demand and supply, just like everything, it fluctuates on a million different things. It fluctuates based on the stock market, the federal funds rate, bond yields in other countries, the fear of recession, the fear of inflation, those are big things that impact these yields.
And guys, this is complicated stuff I do try and talk about on the show. ’cause although it is complicated, some people think it’s boring, it has huge impacts on particularly real estate but the entire economy. But that’s just what you need to know for this conversation about debt is these things fluctuate, right? But having more debt is actually one of the variables in what yields and interest rates are on that debt. Because having a lot of debt can actually push up the interest rates on debt even further, right? Debt can create more debt and there’s this risk of a snowball effect here is just how this could play out for the economy and for real estate investors, step one, basically the US government continues to fail to address the debt because both parties are doing this and neither of them sort of figures out a way to either increase taxes, decrease spending or some combination of both.
So that instead of running at a deficit every year we’re actually running at a surplus and chipping away at our debt. So just in the scenario I’m trying to spell out here, just imagine that status quo continues and neither party figures out how to address the debt and the debt continues to go up. This probably lowers demand for us treasuries. Less people are going to want to lend money to the US government in this scenario. And you might be thinking why if there’s more debt that means that there’s more opportunity for me to lend money to the government and to earn a return on that. Well, bond investors think a little bit differently than stock investors or real estate investors. They are really worried, generally speaking about two potential scenarios. Scenario one here is that the US government defaults on its debt, right? We as investors understand this, like that’s basically instead of you paying your mortgage and getting foreclosed on the US can technically default on its debt.
There’s a scenario that could play out where we as a country get so indebted that we eventually cannot pay the interest on our loans, we cannot pay back the bond holders and those bond lose all of their money or they lose some of their investments due to a debt restructuring. And I think you can imagine this, but this would just be catastrophic for the economy and this is why regardless of party in power making the debt ceiling a a topic of political debate or sort of like in the political gains manship is super dangerous, right? I, I do believe you probably can tell by the fact that this episode exists that I believe the large national US debt is dangerous. But I think flirting with defaulting on our debt is also really dangerous and probably something that should be outside the realm of political partisanship and gamesmanship.
That’s a, that’s a rant anyway. So that first scenario that I’m trying to describe here that bond holders are really concerned about is default on its debt. But that is not the only risk for debt holders. This second scenario that a lot of debt holders, and I think this is probably a more acute fear for most debt holders right now, is that with tons of debt, if debt keeps going up the other way that the US could deal with it instead of defaulting and saying, oh we can’t pay is just to print more money, right? The United States, the treasury controls how much monetary supply there is in this country. And if the US gets to a point where they’re like, hey, we have to make hard decisions about paying for Medicare or Medicaid or military spending and servicing our interest on our debt, they might just choose to print a bit more money and that might sound appealing and governments print money all the time.
But if you do that in any, you know, significant way that typically leads to inflation, that is a very well known relationship to increasing the monetary supply and inflation. Now bond investors particularly they hate inflation. They, it is one of the things that really scares bond investors because it devalues the interest they’re receiving, right? Printing money to pay bond investors back is kind of like giving the middle finger to bond investors ’cause it’s like, hey, you lent us money and we were promising to pay you back this interest rate. Yeah, we’re technically gonna pay you that amount, but the value of each of those dollars that we’re giving you is gonna be significantly less ’cause we increase the amount of monetary supply. And this is just another bad situation for investors. Just by the way, if you’re wondering which of those two scenarios is more likely, personally, I believe scenario T is much more likely.
Like if you were US government and you were faced with the prospect of defaulting on your debt or just printing more money, I think the politically expedient thing to do would be to print more money. And that’s why that is more likely. Now of course those two first and second scenarios are the two bad ones. There is of course a positive one that could possibly happen, which is some level of what I, I would call austerity, which is basically the government decides that this is a problem and either raises taxes to increase revenue cuts spending in some way or some combination of those two things to get the debt under control, start running a national surplus and chipping away at the debt. And this is ideally going to happen also at the same time where we have economic growth. Like if we had that at the same time we could increase our tax revenues without actually raising taxes and that would also help chip away at the deficit.
And this frankly is what I think everyone bond investors, normal Americans should all be sort of rooting for is that we can get the debt back under control. It doesn’t necessarily even have to get to down to zero, but this idea that it can can keep growing and growing and growing indefinitely, the math just doesn’t bear out. And so what I think the best case scenario is, you know, you don’t wanna cut back so much all at once typically ’cause that could lead us into a recession. But I think if we could start sort of chipping away that that would be a good step. Unfortunately we haven’t really seen steps in that direction just yet. I will talk about some of the things that we’ve seen Doge doing and what’s in this new tax bill and if that’s likely to add or help the deficit. But we do need to take one more quick break. We’ll be right back.
Welcome back to On the Market. I’m Dave Meyer talking about the national debt here today. Just before the break I was describing why debt could actually increase borrowing costs, which as real estate investors should be on your mind, right? And and I was explaining that there’s basically two negative scenarios that bond investors are worried about. The first being the potential for default, the second being for printing money. But I was also saying there is a positive possibility where we’d start to chip away at the debt. But what we’re seeing in the new tax bill, even after some cuts to federal spending is that basically everyone agrees that if this one big beautiful bill act passes, it will contribute to the debt in a way like it has over the last couple of years, but it’ll actually accelerate the debt by two to $3 trillion over the next 10 years.
And this is true regardless. You know, I, I make a point of looking at forecast and estimates across the political spectrum from people who tend to lean left, left, center, right center, all the way on the right. Like I look at all these and pretty much everyone believes that the debt is going to continue to climb from this bill. Like I, I haven’t seen any credible studies that show that this spending bill that’s working its way through Congress right now, and again it hasn’t passed, it’s still working its way through Congress is going to contribute to more debt. So all that’s to say, right? I was talking about these three scenarios and why sort of this is becoming more of an issue. I think just generally speaking, bond investors are worried about scenario one and two and they’re becoming more likely the risk of default.
I think that’s less likely. I think more people are worried about this idea that the US might start printing money to service it. Its debt that makes the value of holding these bonds a lot less. And when they’re just, the value of the bonds is less, that means there’s less demand and that pushes interest rates up. So I know I sort of like went on this long story here, but I think it’s really important to understand that what’s going on here is that bond investors are seeing the US have more and more debt. It’s climbing every single year, and they’re worried that maybe there’s gonna be inflation and that they need to get a higher interest rate in order to lend the US government to cover that risk of inflation. This is something called a risk premium. It’s basically how much the investors are going to demand from the government in order to compensate them for risks they see.
And if investors feel that there is risk of inflation, serious inflation, if there’s risk of default, that risk premium is going to go up. And maybe you’re seeing right now how this situation has the potential to spiral. And I’m not saying this is going to happen, it is not happening yet. I just want to explain how this could spiral and why there are so many prominent economists and people who are afraid of debt, right? Investors right now, if just imagine this, they get a little bit more worried about whatever it is, right? They have, they’re worried about inflation or or risk in the economy generally. So yields go up, right? Their risk premium goes up, they demand a little bit more. That’s seems okay, but it does mean that we’re paying more interest on our debt every single year, right? Then that worries investors even more because they’re saying, I don’t want to issue more debt to the us.
They’re gonna have a hard time servicing their existing debt. So we need a higher interest rate to lend in 2026 or in 2027 or whatever it is, right? So this is basically what happens, right? There is risk that leads to higher interest rate, which leads to more risk, which leads to higher interest rate. And it’s kind of this spiral that can happen that again, it’s not happening in the us but this has happened in history to other countries and other governments. And it’s why I believe that the debt is a problem that needs tackling. And since there really aren’t right now any credible solutions on the table, I think it’s a real concern. And I’m, I’m guessing out there, there are some of you who invest in a lot of gold or cryptocurrency to hedge against the risk of dollar debasement or don’t have a lot of confidence in fiat currencies.
You’re probably all nodding your head right now and agreeing that there are real concerns about this. But the other side of this is that everything is very uncertain right now and it’s hard to estimate what the risks are. But I do think it is something that as real estate investors, we really should be thinking about because as we talk about on the show almost every week, right? Mortgage rates are almost directly tied to the yield on US treasuries. And so if some of these scenarios do wind up playing out and investors start to lose confidence in US treasuries as a safe haven, then borrowing costs may go up across the entire economy. And that is true, even if the Fed lowers rates, right? We saw the Fed lower rates back in September and bond yields went up right, and mortgage rates went up. They are not perfectly correlated.
They are related to one another, but they don’t always move in lockstep. And so while everyone in real estate seems to be believing that yields are going to go down and mortgage rates are gonna get cheaper, and that is still, I think a relatively likely scenario, we do need to keep an eye on this because if the national debt continues to balloon and grow, I feel very strongly that what I’m talking about is gonna get increasingly likely, right? We might not see the declines in yields and in mortgage rates that everyone is hoping and waiting for if the debt gets outta control. Now, like I said, I don’t think this is a problem for today. It might not be a problem next week, but it could be in a couple months. It could be in a couple of years, and it’s something I think everyone needs to have on their radar. Again, I’m not trying to spark unnecessary fear, but I do think this is a legitimate economic concern that people should be thinking about. So that’s it, that’s what we got for you today. Thank you all so much for listening to this episode of On the Market. I’m Dave Meyer, I’ll see you next time.

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I get asked by real estate debt investors regularly, “Why do fix-and-flippers pay such high interest rates?”  and “Why don’t they just go to a bank?” 

It’s no secret that hard money loans are expensive, so it can be confusing why a savvy investor would pay that much for the privilege of the loan when there seem to be better options.

It is important to understand that most banks will not fund fix-and-flip projects. The loans have too short of a term and are too administratively heavy on bank resources, making the juice not worth the squeeze.

The national average fix-and-flip takes 5.5 months, according to ATTOM. A good chunk of that time is spent rehabbing the house, so there are inspections, construction draws, and constant accounting. There is a lot of hands-on servicing, which is a lot of effort, to only have the loan for 5.5 months.  

Add the fact that many fix-and-flip investors are buying the worst of the worst. Many of these houses are not habitable and, in most cases, not marketable. These are not assets a bank would ever want to own in the event of foreclosure—it does not meet their risk profile.  

If the flipper is lucky enough to find a bank that will do a fix-and-flip loan, hard money may still be a better option. Here are three reasons why smart real estate investors choose hard money over borrowing from banks. 

1. Speed

Banks are slow.  I have seen banks taking two or more months to get a deal done. 

I am experiencing this right now on an industrial building my partners and I are buying. A Minnesota bank offered a term sheet to our team two months ago, and we still have not closed. Luckily for us, the seller is understanding and has allowed us to push back the closing date, giving our bank the time they need. That is OK if the seller understands, but not all sellers are willing to wait.  

Impatient sellers are common with residential purchases, and this is especially true if there are other buyers lurking, ready to close with cash on hand.

Speed is a competitive advantage for fix-and-flip investors. Speed allows them to separate their offer from others that a seller may be considering. Offering a closing in 10 days or less is an attractive option for a motivated seller and may be more important than getting top dollar for their home. This is especially true if there is a looming deadline like a foreclosure auction.  

Hard money lenders understand the fix-and-flip business and can close fast! 

2. Flexibility 

Banks are highly regulated, with strict guidelines that must be met before they are able to originate a loan. Criteria like high credit scores, easy-to-document income, and liquidity are essential to getting a deal done. Many banks also want to see cash flow from a property, which vacant homes under construction will not produce.  

Hard money lenders have what I like to call common-sense underwriting standards. Sure, they need to do some due diligence to ensure they keep their money safe, but they understand that a successful project is what is needed to get paid back not W-2 income.  

For example, being a self-employed borrower with an irregular income stream could easily prevent a bank from loaning money to you. But if you have a strong deal, a co-signer, or something else that makes the hard money lender comfortable, they will still loan you the money.  

It is about telling your story on what you plan to do and how you plan to pay the loan back. Because there is so much flexibility with hard money lenders, each one will have different standards or guidelines, and each will have different areas where they are willing to make exceptions.  A good credit score may be required for one, while another may not pull your credit at all.  

Having a strong value proposition and brokering relationships are truly keys to having the money available when you are ready to purchase. 

3. Higher Leverage

This is probably what separates hard money lenders from banks the most. As stated, each hard money lender will have different guidelines, which include down payment requirements. Most hard money lenders will require a smaller down payment, while banks require large ones. 

For example, it is highly common for a bank to require 25% to 30% down on loans to real estate investors. It is also common for hard money lenders to only require 10% down. Sometimes, they will not require a down payment at all. 

Increasing leverage on a deal accomplishes several things. Money is finite, so everyone has a limited supply. Hard money is more expensive and will likely create less profit on each deal, but limiting the amount of down payments creates options. 

The real estate investor may be able to get a deal done that they would not have been able to if forced to put down 30%, or maybe they can do two or three deals instead of just one. Giving up some profit on one deal to enable a second or a third can easily create higher income. 

Hard money lenders allow investors to scale and accomplish more. This is the real key to why fix-and-flippers love hard money loans. 

Final Thoughts

All this said, there is an obvious downside to hard money loans. Higher leverage creates higher risk, and those high rates can turn a good deal into a bad one quickly. Investors should stay focused, stick to strict buying criteria, and move fast when utilizing this creative lending source.  

Hard money loans are an important and powerful tool that can create opportunities that are not possible with banks, but they are higher risk and should be used conservatively.



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Not long ago, we appeared to be staring into the abyss of a recession. Goldman Sachs had put the odds of a global recession in 2025 at 60%, although it has now dropped that estimate to 35%. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis concluded that GDP in Q1 2025 decreased 0.3%, although estimates for Q2 are positive.

Given this situation and the enormous rise in housing prices over the last 15 years, many believe we are about to see a repeat of 2008. I explained some time ago why, even if there is a recession, there will be no repeat of 2008 in the housing market. But I’ve had enough run-ins with angry commenters explaining how the real estate market is about to collapse to know this perspective isn’t universally shared.

Part of it may be that with some dark economic clouds on the horizon, there is a tendency to believe the next economic crisis will be like the last, despite it rarely working out that way, historically speaking. However, some of it may just be that enough time has passed that many of us have forgotten what exactly caused the greatest real estate meltdown in American history.

So, let’s jump back in time to revisit the absolute madness that was the housing market in the first decade of the 21st century.

“Housing Prices Always Go Up”

I started investing in real estate in 2005 (good timing, right?), and one of the first things I heard was the very odd-sounding phrase, “Housing prices always go up.” Admittedly, the phrase itself usually came with a caveat: “OK, not always, but just about.” 

Still, the sentiment hovered about like the air you breathed at the time and was said or implied in a thousand different ways. Now, obviously, it wasn’t true, but more importantly, why would anyone even think this? 

Part of the reason for this mass delusion was that there is a kernel of truth in it. On a country-wide basis, housing prices rarely go down. Indeed, if you’re on social media, you have very well seen this chart floating around:

image4

Now, remember, this was 2005, so there were only two negative years between 1950 and then, and both of those were less than 1%  negative. That sounds pretty encouraging, especially when you compare it to a similar chart for the S&P 500, which is littered with red years. 

Unfortunately, while the chart is factually correct, there are many problems with it. First, it doesn’t go back far enough. Notice how the Great Depression isn’t included

This reminds me a bit of Long Term Capital Management. The founders won a Nobel Prize in economics for their mathematical approach to arbitrage. But that math was only based on a few years of data. So when a black swan event occurred (namely, Russia’s debt default in 1998), the company collapsed in historic fashion. It was so over-leveraged that it threatened to bring down the entire global economy and ended up requiring a U.S. government bailout. (Spoilers for 2008, by the way.)

The second problem with that chart is that it only looks at nominal returns. When you go back to the turn of the century and also adjust for inflation, the chart looks quite a bit less favorable.

image1

When you put it on a chart, the year-over-year changes look pretty modest for the most part until just before the beginning of the new millennium.

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Observations and Notes

(For those wondering why I don’t believe the recent sharp uptick is near as problematic as 2008, see here.)

What really got people thinking that housing prices were immune to price corrections was the dot-com bust and the 2001 recession. GDP fell only 0.6% due to the tech stock-induced bust that caused the S&P 500 to fall 43% from peak to trough, and the Nasdaq plummeted 75%.

Real estate prices, however, were not just resilient—they were great. Housing prices went up 

9.3% in 2000 and 6.7% in 2001 (and over 5% in real terms both years). Real estate became viewed as a completely safe haven in contrast to the precarious nature of the stock market. A sort of irrational exuberance formed around the housing market. 

I remember talking to one seller in 2006 who said he wanted to hold the property for another year so he could sell for 10% higher, as if it was some law of nature that properties go up in value on a preset schedule.

The fundamentals underlying the housing market had truly fallen completely out of whack and came down to Earth with a horrendous thud. From peak to trough, housing prices nationwide fell 30%. The stock market did even worse, falling almost 50% and not reaching its pre-crash high again until 2012. Approximately 9 million jobs were lost, and the unemployment rate peaked at over 10%. One estimate found that household wealth declined by over $10 trillion. 

In 2008, there were over 2.3 million foreclosure filings, more than triple the number in 2006. And 2009 and 2010 were both even worse, with over 2.8 million each. The number of foreclosure filings wouldn’t return to the 2006 level until 2017.

So Who Did What?

As I’m sure you can remember, there was an enormous amount of debate after the bottom fell out about whether Wall Street or the government caused the crash. But the thing is, we need to embrace the “genius of the AND.” 

Wall Street and the government both did it. They both did in spades. 

We’ll start by looking at the claim that deregulation caused the collapse. On this point, the answer is, sort of.

Deregulation myths 

The mantra on the left was that greed had caused the crash, as if greed had just been invented sometime around the turn of the century. When pressed a bit harder, deregulation would be the stated culprit, and this is where I (partially) diverge from a lot of liberal commentators. 

Deregulation did play a role, but oddly enough, the most common scapegoat for deregulation did not. That scapegoat was the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act that was passed in 1999 and overturned part of the Glass-Steagall Act of 1932. 

Glass-Steagall separated commercial banking and investment banking and prohibited any institution from engaging in both activities. Gramm-Leach-Bliley didn’t even completely undo this part; it just made it so that both types of firms could be consolidated under a single holding company. 

Now, admittedly, I think there’s a very good case for separating these two types of banks. This legislation likely contributed to the major consolidation of financial institutions we’ve seen in the last few decades and helped to embed the “too big to fail” mantra. But there is little reason to think this had anything to do with the crash. As economist Raymond Natter pointed out:

“[T]hese allegations never specify the exact link between [Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act] and the crisis. The reason is that there is no readily apparent link between the two events. Simply put, the provisions of the Glass-Steagall Act that were repealed by GLBA did not prohibit the origination of subprime mortgage loans, to the securitization of mortgage loans, or to the purchase of mortgage-backed securities that resulted in the large losses that banks and other investors suffered when the housing bubble finally burst.”

Indeed, if you look at the biggest banking collapses during that crisis, none of them were acting as or holding both an investment bank or commercial bank. Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns were exclusively investment banks, and Washington Mutual (the largest bank failure in U.S. history) was exclusively a commercial bank. 

It should also be noted that Canada had no equivalent to Glass-Steagall and yet had not a single bank failure in 2008. European countries also never had any such wall separating commercial and investment banks.

That is not, however, to say that regulation (or the lack thereof) had no part to play.

The role of regulation (and deregulation) in the crash

There are three ways in which I believe the regulatory framework of the United States leading up to 2008 played a significant role in the crash. The first is where liberal economists are at least partially right. For all the ink spilled over Gramm-Leach-Bliley, the real piece of deregulation that exacerbated the crisis was the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000. This law deregulated over-the-counter derivative trades like the infamous credit default swap. 

Credit default swaps began in 1994 before that legislation was passed, but they really took off afterward, especially as investors who saw the crash coming—such as Michael Burry and John Paulson—bought them in droves. Credit default swaps are an absurd financial instrument where a financial institution will pay a third-party investor a stream of monthly payments unless an underlying loan goes into default, in which case the institution will pay out the security’s value to the investor. 

Credit default swaps effectively act as a sort of bizarro-world insurance where the insurance company pays monthly premiums to you unless your house burns down, in which case, you have to pay the insurance company the cost to repair your home.

This increased the demand for mortgage-backed securities, but it certainly didn’t in and of itself cause the housing crisis, nor even the housing bubble to inflate as much as it did. But what it absolutely did do was dramatically exacerbate the financial carnage once the bubble started to deflate, as financial institutions had to deal with both massive losses on their loans and many also had to pay out huge lump sums on all the credit default swaps they had purchased. 

AIG—which specialized in selling insurance to financial institutions and ended up requiring the biggest government bailout—was especially hammered by its exposure to credit default swaps.

The second problem with the regulatory framework was what economists refer to as moral hazard. This refers to the expectation large financial firms have that if things really go sideways, Uncle Sam will foot the bill. This expectation creates an incentive to engage in risky behavior. After all, if you went to Vegas and knew the government would pick up the tab if you lost, wouldn’t you just let it ride?

It’s mostly forgotten today, but the 1990s saw a wave of government bailouts. First, in 1989, the U.S. government provided $50 billion to bail out failed Savings and Loans institutions. In 1995, the government provided a $50 billion bailout to Mexico to help stabilize the peso. In 1998, the government arranged the aforementioned $3.6 billion bailout of Long Term Capital Management just after it was offering bailouts to South Korea and Indonesia during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. 

It had just become common wisdom that if your bank was big enough and you ran it into the ground, the taxpayers would pick up the tab (and you could still give yourself a nice bonus afterward for such a good day’s work). 

Needless to say, such incentives didn’t help. But it got even worse when the crisis actually came, and the government acted erratically by bailing out Bear Stearns while letting Lehman Brothers fail. This left investors in the dark as to what to expect. 

Lastly, the government failed to enact any regulation that might have stopped or at least blunted the impact of the housing bubble. Brooksley Born, as chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, tried to regulate derivatives, but without any luck. 

Beyond that, the government made no attempt to deflate what was becoming a clear bubble. The ratio of median annual income to housing prices had grown from 3.5 in 1984 to 5.1 in 2007. By itself, this might not have raised an alarm, as interest rates were much lower in 2007 than they were in 1984. But just a little digging made it easy to see just how fragile the market actually was.

For one, almost 35% of mortgages being taken out on the eve of the crash were adjustable-rate loans, often with low-interest “teaser” rates.

image6
Yahoo! Finance

Furthermore, the number of poorly qualified buyers should have been extremely disconcerting. Whereas about 75% of mortgages originated in 2022 had a credit score of 760 or more, that was less than 25% in 2007. Around 15% had credit ratings under 620.

image3
Yahoo! Finance

At no point did the government make a concerted effort to rein in adjustable-rate, teaser loans, stated income approvals (the dreaded NINJA loans: No Income No Job No Assets), or anything like that. In fact, they were too busy pouring gasoline on the fire.

The government’s role in the crisis

The government’s role as watchdog for the financial markets was more a case of the fox guarding the hen house. Instead of deflating the housing bubble, the government’s actions were clearly geared toward blowing it up.

In a case of bipartisan insanity, the Democrats’ push for affordable housing and the Bush administration’s push for an “ownership society” coalesced into a ticking time bomb. Apparently, owning a home was all that mattered. Whether you could afford it was a question only Debbie Downers liked to ask.

A variety of legislative acts were passed to increase homeownership and encourage banks to lend to low-income households. The most famous of these acts was the 1977 Community Reinvestment Act, which the Clinton administration used far more aggressively than previous administrations had.

Yet this was only a small piece of the puzzle. The big problems involved the Federal Reserve and the two most famous government-sponsored entities, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. We’ll start with Fannie and Freddie.

In 1999, Steven Holmes wrote an infamous piece for The New York Times, “Fannie Mae Eases Credit to Aid Mortgage Lending.” In it, he wrote, “[T]he Fannie Mae Corporation is easing the credit requirements on loans that it will purchase from banks and other lenders.” 

Holmes went on to quote then-Fannie Mae CEO Franklin Raines:

“Fannie Mae has expanded homeownership for millions of families in the 1990s by reducing down payment requirements. Yet there remain too many borrowers whose credit is just a notch below what our underwriting has required who have been relegated to paying significantly higher mortgage rates in the so-called subprime market.”

Holmes then ominously notes, “In moving, even tentatively, into this new area of lending, Fannie Mae is taking on significantly more risk.”

You think?

Fannie Mae was set up in the wake of the Great Depression to buy mortgages on the secondary market in order to expand homeownership. Freddie Mac was later created in 1970 to expand the secondary market with an added focus on serving smaller financial institutions. Combined, they support a whopping 70% of the mortgage market in the United States.

Fannie and Freddie led the charge on expanding mortgage-backed securities, with over $2 trillion in MBS in 2003 and dwarfing all private institutions until 2005. Approximately 40% of all newly issued subprime securities were purchased by either Fannie or Freddie in the run-up to the financial crisis. And these institutions generally set the tone for other market participants to follow.

Remember, that New York Times article came out in 1999. Here’s what happened to subprime in the years that followed.

image5
Cato Institute

Subprime adjustable-rate mortgages ended up having an astronomical delinquency rate—over 40%! On the other hand, prime fixed-rate mortgages never had a delinquency rate exceeding 5%, even at the height of the crisis.

The Federal Reserve also had a major role to play. The fact that the then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke could claim “the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will be limited, and we do not expect significant spillovers” in May 2007 shows, at best, they were asleep at the wheel. But the Fed’s role in the crisis is much deeper than that.

It goes back to the 2001 dot-com bust. It was at that time that economist Paul Krugman gave his infamous advice on how to get the economy back on its feet:

“To fight this recession, the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble.”

And that’s exactly what the Fed did. 

Despite the 2001 recession being quite mild, the Fed held interest rates at (what were then) historic lows. The Fed pushed the federal funds rate down from about 6.5% in 2001 to 1%, and then held it there until the middle of 2004. 

Austrian economists like to talk about the “natural rate of interest,namely, what interest rates would be if they were set by the market, given the demand for loans and the amount of savings available. Keynesian economists would argue that it’s not so simple. Regardless of that controversy, there is certainly a natural range of interest. And given the strong rebound from the 2001 recession (i.e., high demand) and abysmal savings rate at the time (i.e., low supply), the price of money should have been significantly higher than it was. 

(On a side note, when loans go into default, money is literally taken out of existence, which is a major reason that, despite very low interest rates after the crisis, inflation was low and, at least for a while, asset prices didn’t skyrocket.)

At the beginning of this article, I noted how real estate prices increased by over 5%  in real terms in 2001. This is why. The Fed’s excessively low rates inflated housing prices, creating a false sense that real estate always went up.

And given both the government’s behavior and Wall Street’s behavior, that excess liquidity made its way into blowing up the real estate bubble (both before and after the bubble burst in different ways).

Wall Street’s role in the crisis

I am generally in favor of a free market, but I do find it a bit odd the way many defenders of capitalism blamed it all on the government in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. It was as if poor Goldman Sachs and the downtrodden Countrywide just had to make a bunch of farcically complex derivatives because the government was pushing banks to lend more and more to less and less-qualified borrowers. 

We should remember that 60% of subprime mortgages did not go to Fannie and Freddie. These were issued by commercial banks themselves. And then those terrible loans were securitized into obscure financial instruments that hid their underlying risk and sold all over the world, as will be discussed shortly.

No, Wall Street’s behavior before the crash was atrocious. Although it wasn’t just Wall Street, unfortunately. The problems were systemic. 

For one, there was a disastrous disconnect between those issuing loans and those buying them. Mortgage originators got paid for issuing loans. Once they were issued, the issuer would sell the mortgage and move on to the next borrower. The incentives were all backwards

And as one might expect, such terrible incentives laid the groundwork for rampant fraud. A paper by John M. Griffin on the role of fraud in the crisis is worth quoting at length:

“Underwriting banks facilitated wide-scale mortgage fraud by knowingly misreporting key loan characteristics underlying mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Under the cover of complexity, credit rating agencies catered to investment banks by issuing increasingly inflated ratings on both RMBS and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). Originators who engaged in mortgage fraud gained market share, as did CDO managers who catered to underwriters by accepting the lowest-quality MBS collateral. Appraisal targeting and inflated appraisals were the norm.”

The collateralized debt obligations mentioned by Griffin were packages of mortgages that Wall Street firms often sliced and diced in a way to obscure the underlying risk. These instruments offered the illusion of diversification. But given that, at least for the lower tranches of such CDOs, that diversification amounted to nothing more than a diverse array of garbage, it didn’t offer much security. 

In the end, as Niall Ferguson concluded, “The sellers of structured products boasted that securitisation allocated assets to those best able to bear it, but it turned out to be to those least able to understand it.”

The crisis was globalized by this manner of securitizing garbage and selling it off to the unsuspecting. (Although, while the global crisis started in the United States, many other countries had housing bubbles as well.)

Lastly, there were the rating agencies that consistently put their triple-A stamp of approval on farcically complex securities, backed by subprime, teaser-rate NINJA mortgages right up until the whole house of cards collapsed. The biggest problem with these agencies was pretty simple: They are “issuer-paid,” which created an enormous conflict of interest.  

The proper role of financial institutions is to effectively distribute capital in a manner that allows entrepreneurs to expand their businesses and consumers to purchase homes and other expensive assets they can afford, and to do so in a way that grows the economy while mitigating risk. What actually happened, however, was that throughout the run-up to the collapse, Wall Street did virtually nothing to ameliorate risk, and instead engaged in extremely risky, highly leveraged, and overly complex behavior to maximize profits in the most myopic and shortsighted way possible. The results shouldn’t have been surprising.

They certainly deserved no pity, nor our tax dollars (although that’s another story).

Final Thoughts

The 2008 financial crisis was easily the biggest economic disaster of my lifetime and has had lasting effects on the real estate industry, as well as the economy as a whole. Indeed, it’s had an enormous effect on our collective psyche, particularly for those of us in real estate. In a variation of Godwin’s Law, the longer a conversation about real estate goes, the likelihood of the 2008 real estate crash being brought up approaches one.

Lately, many have been warning that we are facing a second such crash. Again, that is highly unlikely. The fundamentals of real estate are far sounder now than then. Financial crises and recessions rarely play out the same way twice in a row. 

In 1929, it was an overvalued stock market and a foolhardy attempt to return to the gold standard at pre-World War I prices. In the ‘70s, it was an oil shock and the inflationary consequences of “guns and butter”; in 2001, it was the dot-com bust; in 2008, it was housing; and let us not forget, in 2020, a pandemic.

Next time around, given the way things are going, it very well might be a sovereign debt crisis. Hopefully not. But either way, it’s still critical to understand how such a disaster came about to avoid it from happening again, and also so as not to assume a run-up in prices necessarily means it’s happening again.

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Real estate investors are eschewing the tried-and-trusted strategy of buying and holding assets for the long term and jettisoning their rental properties to escape a softening market, according to a new report from Realtor.com.

Data from Realtor.com’s Investor Report showed that about 11% of all homes sold in the U.S. last year were from investors, the highest percentage in that sector since 2001. The median sale amount for these rental properties was approximately $350,000, the report says. 

Data showed that investors sold more than they bought in 2024, with sales increasing by 5.2% year over year. In total, investors sold 509,000 properties last year, a figure significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, although lower than in 2021 and 2022, when buyer demand reached an all-time high.

“The reason behind investor sales has shifted since the [COVID-19] pandemic heyday,” Realtor.com senior economic research analyst Hannah Jones said on her company’s website. “Investors may no longer be selling to cash in on soaring home values, but rather due to market softening and easing rents.”

Investors in the Midwest, South Are Selling the Most Rentals

Crunching the numbers, the Midwest and South experienced the most investor sales, specifically in Missouri and Oklahoma, where each state saw landlords part with 16.7% of the market share of sales. Georgia was close behind with 15.9%, followed by Kansas, Utah, and Nevada, with 14.3%.

Interestingly, these states also saw the most buying activity, with investors in Missouri buying 21.2% of all homes, followed by Oklahoma (18.7%), Kansas (18.4%), Utah (18%), and Georgia (17.3%).

Investors Bought Homes Priced Right Under $300,000

Realtor.com contends that the most affordable markets in the U.S. attract investors who cannot afford to buy elsewhere due to the general housing shortage. Their data shows that investors bought homes priced at $282,000, which was more than $70,000 less than the median sales price. 

“As a result, budget-conscious buyers often find themselves in direct competition with investors for the most affordable properties, a contest many are unable to win,” Jones said.

Small Investors Increased Their Share

Realtor.com’s report showed that mom-and-pop investors with fewer than 10 properties made up a significant 59.2% of investor purchases, the highest percentage ever recorded, while larger investors, with 50 or more homes, dropped to 21.7% of purchases—the lowest percentage since 2007.

In total, smaller investors purchased 361,900 homes in 2024, up 3.7% year over year. The report showed that the states with the largest growth in investor purchases compared to 2023 were Delaware, Ohio, and Washington D.C. Conversely, investor selling grew the most in Mississippi, Nevada, and South Dakota.

Most Investors Used Debt

Despite a high-interest rate environment, data shows that most investors still prefer to use debt to buy their rental properties rather than pay all cash. Small investors saw their cash purchase share of the market fall from its peak of 65.6% back in 2023 to 62% in 2024, marking the lowest small investor cash purchase share since 2008. However, leveraging would only be effective in places where it is affordable, such as less expensive homes in areas with the most buying activity, primarily in the Midwest and South.

Even here, to cash flow at current rates, investors would still need to make a sizable down payment, which would be more affordable in more affordable markets, or buy at a deep discount. The changing investment landscape marks a notable shift from recent years when a lack of inventory led to bidding wars and multiple offers.

“Investor trends signal a transition,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at realtor.com, in a press release. “Nationwide, investors picked up more homes on net in 2024, as smaller investors were a growing majority of investor buyers. But with investors selling at a new high, the market saw the smallest net investor buying activity in five years, lessening one of the notable headwinds for entry-level buyers who often compete with investors.”

Reasons for Selling: The Hard Reality of Investing

The headlines speak volumes. Investors are jumping ship in record numbers. Although the advantages of owning real estate, especially investment real estate, have been proven to be great wealth builders, the reality is that it’s very challenging. Many buyers get in over their heads before they realize they don’t know what they’re doing or regret blindly following an investment guru, friend, or realtor into buying an investment they shouldn’t have.

Financial media guru Suze Orman is rarely a sounding board for investors, but there is a lot of truth in her advice to novice investors about being wary about investing in rentals due to the cost of maintenance, property taxes, real estate agent fees, and the difficulty of being able to sell. 

BRRRRing at the Wrong Time

The Realtor.com data did not account for interest rates, which have remained stubbornly high. Many investors may have purchased homes with hard money, expecting rates to stay low so they could implement the BRRRR strategy. However, upon completing their rehab and coming to refinance, rates had risen to 7%, no longer making the rental a good investment without cash flow, leaving them with no choice but to sell.

Investing Without Deep Pockets 

Unless you have extra cash set aside to account for vacancies and maintenance, owning a rental property can become a financial drain that only pays off after holding it for a long period. Amidst economic uncertainty associated with layoffs and tariffs, people are no longer as secure in their jobs as they once were, which could again be a reason to sell. 

Stiff Competition for Tenants

Although small investors comprise the majority of the U.S. single-family buying demographic, Wall Street has this valuable commodity in its sights and has been spending billions to capture the market. With many buyers unable to get onto the property ladder due to high prices, insurance, and interest rates, REITs have been purchasing their own built-to-rent communities in large numbers.

AvalonBay Communities, one of the largest multifamily real estate investment trusts in the U.S., recently purchased a set of 126 build-to-rent townhomes in Bee Cave, Texas, for $49 million, according to The Wall Street Journal. The firm said it intended to invest billions.

“We think we’re really in the early stages of what could be a pretty significant, almost new asset class,” AvalonBay’s chief investment officer, Matt Birenbaum, told the Journal. Build-to-rent communities doubled in housing starts from 2020 to 2024, increasing by double digits in many areas, according to the National Association of Realtors’ analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data. Other powerhouse REITs getting into the market include Blackstone, Invitation Homes, and Premium Partners. 

Although Birenbaum told the Journal, “We are not competing with individuals trying to buy individual homes in the private market,” the fact is that they are competing for the same tenant base. REITs have the advantage of building brand-new homes with the economies of scale, offering amenities, and having deep pockets. They are a natural draw for many tenants as long as their price points are affordable, causing the tenant pool to shrink for smaller investors.

Final Thoughts 

The housing shortage, particularly in the Northeast and California, means that small landlords will have a much better chance of finding tenants here than in the Sunbelt, where construction has boomed since the pandemic. However, prices are higher in the coastal markets and the chances of cash flowing less if you have not owned the property for a long time.

If interest rates remain high and economic uncertainty persists, rents will eventually soften. There will inevitably be an inflection point where, even in less expensive markets in the Midwest and South, investors will find it harder to justify owning rentals that are not cash-flowing. We may have already reached it.

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It’s a question a lot of people are asking right now—and honestly, it’s a fair one. Interest rates are still high, home prices haven’t come down the way many hoped, and trying to find a cash-flowing deal in today’s market feels like searching for a needle in a haystack. For both new and experienced investors, the math just isn’t penciling out like it used to. 

But here’s the truth: Waiting on the sidelines isn’t always the safer option. Yes, the market is challenging—but it’s not unworkable. In fact, some of the best investors I know aren’t trying to time the market perfectly. They’re just staying active and consistent, and using the tools available to keep building momentum. 

We’ll break down what’s really going on in the market, why now is still a good time to invest for the long term, and how a fractional real estate investment platform can help you stay in the game—even when great deals are hard to find. 

What’s Happening in the Market Right Now?

Interest rates are still high

After hitting historic lows in 2020, interest rates have climbed rapidly—hovering around 7% as of early 2025. For investors, this significantly increases borrowing costs. A rental property that looked like a great deal two years ago might cash flow poorly (or not at all) under today’s rates. Financing is more expensive, and underwriting is tighter across the board.

Home prices aren’t dropping

Despite these higher rates, home prices remain elevated due to a persistent lack of inventory. Many homeowners are “locked in” with sub-4% mortgage rates and have no incentive to sell, which means fewer properties on the market. That tight supply keeps prices stable—or even rising—in many metros, even while affordability worsens.

The result? A tougher investing environment

For investors, this creates a squeeze: higher prices, higher debt costs, and more competition for fewer deals. Whether you’re trying to BRRRR, flip, or hold for long-term rentals, the path to profit is narrower than it used to be.

It’s understandable why some investors feel frozen right now. But sitting back and waiting for perfect conditions often leads to missed opportunities—especially in a market that still favors long-term appreciation.

Why Waiting Could Cost You More in the Long Run

It’s tempting to sit on the sidelines and wait for things to “normalize.” But if there’s one thing the past few decades have taught us, it’s this: Timing the real estate market is almost impossible—and waiting often costs more money than it saves.

Real estate rewards long-term thinking

Over the last 30 years, despite market volatility and economic downturns, U.S. home prices have trended upward. According to data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), the average home price in the U.S. has more than tripled since the 1990s. Even when factoring in the 2008 housing crash, values recovered and then surged—reaching new highs.

Had you bought at the peak before the crash and held long term, you still would have come out ahead.

The danger of “waiting for the right time

Trying to time your entry perfectly can lead to years of inaction. In the meantime, inflation continues, rents rise, and opportunities pass you by. 

Meanwhile, investors who stayed active—adjusting their strategies to fit the market—continued to build equity, earn cash flow, and grow their portfolios.

Start where you are

You don’t need to buy a 10-unit apartment building tomorrow. But you do need to keep moving. The longer you wait, the more expensive it can become to get back in—and the more opportunities you leave on the table.

What to Do When You Can’t Find a Deal

Let’s be honest: Finding a solid investment property right now takes serious effort. Off-market deals are competitive, sellers are holding out for peak prices, and anything that cash flows in today’s interest rate environment gets snatched up quickly. 

If you’re a new investor, that can feel overwhelming. If you’re experienced, it can feel like a waste of time chasing deals that no longer make sense.

So, what do you do when you want to invest but can’t find the right property? You adapt.

Staying on the sidelines is one option—but it means missing out on appreciation, passive income, and the long-term benefits of compounding. A smarter move is to find ways to stay invested, even if it means using tools or strategies that look different from what you’re used to. 

And that’s exactly where Realbricks comes in. Realbricks is a fractional real estate investing platform designed for today’s market—where deals are harder to find and investors are looking for smarter, simpler ways to stay active.

Instead of spending hours searching for properties, analyzing numbers, and negotiating with sellers, Realbricks lets you invest in professionally underwritten real estate deals starting at just $100. You’re buying ownership in real, income-generating properties—and earning passive income without ever needing to manage a tenant or fix a leaky faucet.

Here’s why Realbricks stands out in this market:

  • No deal hunting required: Realbricks finds properties, does the due diligence, and handles all the management.
  • Perfect for rookies: New investors can start small, learn the ropes, and build confidence without a huge capital commitment.
  • Ideal for seasoned investors: If you’re focused on stabilizing your current portfolio or want to stay diversified without adding more work, this is a low-effort way to keep your money moving.
  • Passive income: Earn quarterly dividends from rental income without doing any of the hands-on operations.
  • Portfolio diversification: Spread your investment across multiple properties and markets.
  • IRA-compatible: You can even invest through a self-directed retirement account for long-term tax-advantaged growth.
  • Built-in management: Realbricks handles everything—operations, tenants, maintenance, and finances.

It’s one of the few ways you can keep investing in real estate right now, without chasing deals that no longer make sense or tying up your time in active management.

A Real Strategy for a Real Market

The current market requires flexibility. Traditional strategies—like buying undervalued properties or BRRRR-ing your way to scale—are harder to execute with today’s rates and prices. But that doesn’t mean you should pause your investing efforts. It means you should pivot.Realbricks is built for exactly this type of environment. When financing is expensive, inventory is tight, and time is limited, fractional investing gives you a way to stay active without overextending yourself.

Whether you’re just getting started or already managing a portfolio, Realbricks helps you:

  • Stay invested even when market conditions are tough
  • Keep earning while stabilizing other properties or projects
  • Diversify easily without spending months searching for the perfect deal
  • Buy back your time by letting someone else handle operations

This isn’t a workaround—it’s a real investment strategy designed for how the market works right now.

Realbricks Makes It Possible to Invest Smart—Even in a Tough Market

The current real estate market isn’t easy. High interest rates, limited inventory, and tough competition have made it harder for investors to find solid deals that actually make sense. But tough markets don’t mean you should stop investing—they just mean you need to get creative.

Realbricks gives you a real solution: a way to continue building your portfolio, generating passive income, and staying in the game—without the stress of hunting for deals or managing properties. Whether you’re just starting out or looking to balance your existing investments, this platform helps you move forward—without the traditional barriers.

You don’t need to time the market perfectly. You just need to keep taking action. Realbricks gives you the tools to do that—on your terms, and in today’s real-world conditions.

BiggerPockets investors: Use codeBP50 to get $50 of bonus shares instantly with your first investment.



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