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According to NAHB analysis of quarterly Census data, the count of multifamily, for-rent housing starts declined during the third quarter of 2024. For the quarter, 94,000 multifamily residences started construction. Of this total, 88,000 were built-for-rent. This was almost 14% lower than the third quarter of 2023.

The market share of rental units of multifamily construction starts declined to below 94% for the third quarter, as the built-for-sale, multifamily condo market experienced a gain. The historical low market share of 47% for bult-for-rent multifamily construction was set during the third quarter of 2005, during the condo building boom. An average share of 80% was registered during the 1980-2002 period.

For the third quarter, there were 6,000 multifamily condo unit construction starts, up from 3,000 a year ago. While still a small market, this was the highest quarterly count since mid-2022.

An elevated rental share of multifamily construction is holding typical apartment size below levels seen during the pre-Great Recession period. According to third quarter 2024 data, the average square footage of multifamily construction starts ticked higher to 1,061 square feet. The median edged up to 1,013 square feet. These estimates are near multidecade lows.

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The majority of NAHB builder members are small businesses, according to the annual census of its members NAHB has been conducting since 2008. The most recent installment of the census was conducted at the end of 2023 and covered business activity through 2023.

The census shows that, on average, NAHB builders started 59.2 homes in 2023 (37.3 single-family and 21.9 multifamily). However, the median number of homes started was only six. Because the data include a small percentage of very large builders, the average number of starts is much higher than the median. For that reason, the median may better represent the experience of the typical NAHB builder.

Another, conventional way to evaluate the size of a business is by the annual revenue it generates. In the 2023 NAHB census, 14% of builders reported a dollar volume of less than $500,000, 12% reported between $500,000 and $999,999, 38% between $1.0 and $4.9 million, 15% between $5.0 and $9.9 million, 6% between $10.0 million and $14.9 million, and 14% reported $15.0 million or more. Only 1% reported no business activity at all in 2023. The median edged up to $3.4 million (from $3.3 million in 2021 and 2022). For comparison, the Small Business Administration’s size standards classify residential builders and remodelers as small if they have average annual receipts of $45.0 million or less ($34.0 million or less for land developers).

Historically, NAHB initiated the current version of its member census during the industry-wide downturn of 2008, when the median annual revenue of builder members was only around $1.0 million. Median annual revenue began rising in 2013, as the industry slowly recovered, plateauing at $2.6 to $2.7 million from 2017 through 2020, before jumping to $3.3 million in 2021 and 2022 and then edging up by another $0.1 million in 2023.

Due to their status as small businesses and extensive use of subcontractors, many builders carry relatively few employees on their payrolls. In NAHB’s 2023 census, builder members reported a median of six employees, including employees in both construction and non-construction jobs.

Whether based on the median of six employees, the median of six homes started, or the median annual revenue of $3.4 million, it is safe to conclude that the majority of NAHB’s builder members qualify as small businesses.

For more detail on the 2023 NAHB Builder Member Census, including a profile for each of the seven major categories of builder, please see the July 2024 Special Study.

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The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume by the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey, saw a slight month-over-month decline of 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis; compared to July 2023, the index increased by 0.5%. The Purchase Index declined by 4.8%, while the Refinance Index increased by 5.8%, month-over-month. On a yearly basis, the Purchase Index decreased by 13.9%, while the Refinance Index increased by 33.9%.

Meanwhile, the average monthly 30-year fixed mortgage rate continued to decline for three straight months with July seeing the largest decrease of 10 basis points (bps) to land an at 6.88% in July. The current rate is also lower than last July by 6 bps.

The average loan size for the total market (including purchases and refinances) is down by 1.5% from June to $367,900 on a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis in July. Similarly, the month-over-month change for purchase loans decreased 1.6% to an average size of $424,200, while refinance loans increased by 2.5% to an average of $275,325. The average loan size for an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) decreased by 2.5% for the same period, from $1.03 million to $1.01 million.

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