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Single-family starts posted a solid gain in August on robust demand and moderating mortgage rates even as builders continue to grapple with challenges related to lot and labor shortages and elevated prices for many building materials.

Overall housing starts increased 9.6% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.36 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

The August reading of 1.36 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts increased 15.8% to a 992,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate. On a year-over-year basis, single-family starts are up 5.2% compared to August 2023. On a year-to-date basis, single-family starts are up 10.4%. The three-month moving average (a useful gauge given recent volatility) is down to 944,000 units, as charted below.

The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, decreased 4.2% to an annualized 364,000 pace. The three-month moving average for multifamily construction has trended upward to a 363,000-unit annual rate. On a year-over-year basis, multifamily construction is up 0.6%.

On a regional and year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts are 1.9% lower in the Midwest, 2.1% lower in the Northeast, 4.4% lower in the West and 4.6% lower in the South.

The total number of single-family homes and apartments under construction was 1.5 million in August. This is the lowest total since November 2021. Total housing units now under construction are 11.1% lower than a year ago. Single-family units under construction fell to a count of 642,000—down 5.2% compared to a year ago. The number of multifamily units under construction has fallen to 867,000 units. This is down 15.0% compared to a year ago.

On a 3-month moving average basis, there are currently 1.8 apartments completing construction for every one that is beginning construction. While apartment construction starts are down, the number of completed units entering the market is rising due to prior elevated construction levels. Year-to-date, the pace of completions for apartments in buildings with five or more units is up 36.7% in 2024 compared to 2023. A higher pace of completions in 2024 for multifamily construction will place some downward pressure on rent growth.

Overall permits increased 4.9% to a 1.48-million-unit annualized rate in August. Single-family permits increased 2.8% to a 967,000 unit rate. Multifamily permits increased 9.2% to an annualized 508,000 pace.

Looking at regional data on a year-to-date basis, permits are 2.1% higher in the Midwest, 0.7% higher in the Northeast, 1.1% lower in the South and 6.2% lower in the West.

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Over the first seven months of 2024, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 599,308. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is an increase of 13.7% over the July 2023 level of 527,158.

Year-to-date ending in July, single-family permits were up in all four regions. The range of permit increases spanned 18.2% in the West to 9.8% in the Northeast. The Midwest was up by 14.5% and the South was up by 12.4% in single-family permits during this time. For multifamily permits, three out of the four regions posted declines. The Northeast, driven by New York was the only region to post an increase and was up by 32.0%. Meanwhile, the West posted a decline of 31.2%, the South declined by 22.7%, and the Midwest declined by 9.3%.

Between July 2024 YTD and July 2023 YTD, 47 states and the District of Columbia posted an increase in single-family permits. The range of increases spanned 39.4% in Arizona to 2.1% in Rhode Island. New Hampshire (-0.2%), Hawaii (-2.7%), and Alaska (-10.4%) reported declines in single-family permits. The ten states issuing the highest number of single-family permits combined accounted for 64.0% of the total single-family permits issued. Texas, the state with the highest number of single-family permits, issued 97,551 permits over the first seven months of 2024, which is an increase of 15.6% compared to the same period last year. The succeeding highest state, Florida, was up by 9.5%, while the third highest, North Carolina, posted an increase of 11.8%.

Year-to-date ending in July, the total number of multifamily permits issued nationwide reached 279,618. This is 17.2% below the July 2023 level of 337,730.

Between July 2024 YTD and July 2023 YTD, 18 states recorded growth in multifamily permits, while 32 states and the District of Columbia recorded a decline. New York (+117.4%) led the way with a sharp rise in multifamily permits from 10,110 to 21,981, while the District of Columbia had the biggest decline of 68.7% from 1,969 to 616. The ten states issuing the highest number of multifamily permits combined accounted for 64.7% of the multifamily permits issued. Over the first seven months of 2024, Texas, the state with the highest number of multifamily permits issued, experienced a decline of 30.4%. Following closely, the second-highest state in multifamily permits, Florida, saw a decline of 24.4%. California, the third largest multifamily issuing state, decreased by 27.5%.

At the local level, below are the top ten metro areas that issued the highest number of single-family permits.

For multifamily permits, below are the top ten local areas that issued the highest number of permits.

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The cost per square foot of a single-family home declines systematically as the home becomes larger, according to NAHB analysis of two recent data sources. In microeconomics, unit costs that decline as a business operation increases in size are called economies of scale.

In home building, economies of scale may exist in several forms. It is conceivable, for instance, that homes cost less if they are built in larger subdivisions, or by larger companies, where design costs may be spread over a large number of production units. This post, however, focuses on economies of scale at the level of an individual home. In other words, does cost per square foot decline, all else equal, as a home increases in size?

The answer is yes, according to NAHB tabulation of data from the Survey of Construction (conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau with partial funding from the Department of Housing and Urban Development). Last Friday’s post reported on how the sale price per square foot of new single-family detached homes varies across time and geography. The chart below shows how it varies with the size of the home (measured in square footage of finished floor space). It is easy to see that the median price declines systematically, from a high of $200 per square foot for homes under 1,200 square feet to a low of only $132 per square foot for homes with 5,000 square feet or more.

There could be several reasons for this. A conventional explanation is that some components of construction cost—for example, design, regulatory and waste disposal costs—may be more or less fixed and not change much with house size.

The above sale price numbers are calculated after subtracting the value of the improved lot, but do not otherwise control for differences in quality or amenities present in the homes. One of the private services that does carefully control for quality and amenities when estimating construction costs per square foot is RSMeans. The chart below shows the base cost per square foot for a two-story home in each of the four RSMeans quality tiers: Economy, Average, Custom and Luxury.

Within each tier, characteristics of the home (other than square footage) are held constant. The “Average” two-story home, for instance, has a simple design from standard plans, no basement, a kitchen, single full bathroom, asphalt shingles on the roof, wood framing, wood siding, gypsum wallboard interior, and average quality materials and workmanship. As in the previous chart, cost per square foot declines systematically as the house gets bigger. Although the rate of decline varies, at the low end of the size scale, doubling the size of the home reduces the base cost per square foot by somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 percent. Interested readers may consult RSMeans for further details.

The bottom line is that economies of scale are ubiquitous in new single-family homes throughout both the Census sale price and private cost estimating data. This is significant due to the volume of queries NAHB fields about construction costs. Almost invariably, the queries ask for cost per square foot. To avoid large errors, it is important the requesters realize that the number will change depending on the size of the home. If you apply cost per square foot for a 3,000 square-foot home to a home with only 1,500 square feet, for instance, you will drastically underestimate the home’s total cost. Ideally, this post will be able to serve as a reference in these situations.

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The average completion time of a single-family house in 2023 was approximately 10.1 months, breaking down to 1.5 months for authorization to start construction and another 8.6 months to finish construction. According to the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction, the permit-to-completion time has been on an upward trend since 2015. Currently, it is almost 3 months longer than the average completion time in 2015. This extended duration is largely attributable to a more stringent regulatory environment, ongoing supply-chain challenges and a shortage of skilled labor.

Among all single-family houses completed in 2023, homes built for sale required the shortest amount of time, 8.9 months from obtaining building permits to completion. Meanwhile, homes built by owners (custom builds) required the longest time, 15.2 months. Homes built by hired contractors tookabout12.1 months, and homes built-for-rent took about 12.2 months from authorization to completion.

The time from permit to start for all types of homes was longer in 2023. The period of time necessary to start construction required, on average, 1.5 months in 2023. In contrast, prior to 2017 construction typically started within the same month after obtaining building authorization. Between authorization and the start of construction, built for sale and built by contractors on owner’s land required 1.5 months and 1.4 months respectively. The permit-to-start time was even longer for homes built-for-rent and custom builds (1.6 months).

The chart below illustrates that permit-to-completion time differs across home sizes. The smallest single-family homes, under 1,200 sq. ft., required 13 months to finish, relatively longer than larger homes under 5,000 sq. ft. This prolonged period is primarily because half of these smaller homes are constructed specifically for rental purposes, which typically takes longer building time from authorization. In contrast, homes ranging from 1,200 to 3,999 sq. ft. are built at the average building time, typically around 10 months. As the size increases beyond 4,000 sq. ft., there is a noticeable upward trend in completion times. Homes with 4,000-4,999 sq. ft. take about 12 months, while those between 5,000- 5,999 sq. ft. extend to a little more than 14 months. Homes over 6,000 sq. ft. take the longest to build, requiring almost 18 months from permit to finish.

The average time from authorization to completion also varies across divisions. The division with the longest duration was New England (13.9 months), followed by the Middle Atlantic (13.2 months), the Mountain division (11.4 months), and the Pacific division (11.2 months) in 2023. These four divisions exceeded the nation’s average of10.1 months. The shortest period, 8.9 months, is registered in the South Atlantic division. The average waiting period from permit to construction start varies from the shortest time of 0.9 months in the East North Central to the longest of 2 months in New England.

The SOC also collects additional information for houses built for sale, including a sale date when buyers sign sale contracts or make a deposit. Looking at single-family homes built for sale and completed in 2023, 17.2% were sold before construction started, 41.8% sold while under construction, 15.6% sold during the month of completion, and 19.7% sold after completion. The share of completed houses remaining unsold was 5.8% at point of survey.

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A majority of single-family homes started in 2023 continued to have two full bathrooms according to the latest release of the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction.  According to the latest data, 64.7% of new single-family homes started in 2023 had two full bathrooms, 23.8% had three full bathrooms, 6.9% had 4 or more full bathrooms, and only 4.6% had one full bathroom or less.

The recent data features the largest increase since 2018 in single-family homes with two bathrooms, as the share increased from 62.3% to 64.7%. This reverses the trend of the past two years when this share consecutively decreased. The share of single-family starts with 3 full bathrooms fell for the second straight year, down to 23.8%, while the share of single-family starts with 1 full bathroom or less rose to 4.6%, the third straight increase. Single-family homes started with 4 or more bathrooms share decreased to 6.9%, after increasing the prior two years.

Across the U.S., the New England census division had the highest share at 75.6% of new single-family starts having two full bathrooms. This share jumped by 22.2 percentage points from 2022, and this was the first time since 2017 that the New England share was the largest in the nation. The lowest share census division was the Middle Atlantic, with 50.0% of new single-family starts reporting two full bathrooms. The share of new single-family started with two full bathrooms fell 9.2 percentage points from 2022 in the Middle Atlantic.

Half-Bathrooms

Most new single-family homes started in 2023 have no half-bathrooms at 54.7%. Following closely is the share of new single-family homes with one half-bathroom at 43.8% . New single-family starts with two or more half-bathrooms had a small share of 1.5% in 2023.

Half-bathrooms are historically prevalent in the New England census division as 79.8% of new single-family starts had at least one in 2023. Half-bathrooms were the least common in the West South Central, with only 38.3% of new single-family starts reporting at least one half-bathroom. A trend of note is in the Pacific, where the share has fallen for five consecutive years, from 53.2% in 2018 to 40.7% in 2023.

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An expected impact of the virus crisis was a need for more residential space, as people use homes for more purposes including work. Home size correspondingly increased in 2021 as interest rates reached historic lows. However, as interest rates increased in 2022 and 2023, and housing affordability worsened, the demand for home size has trended lower.

According to second quarter 2024 data from the Census Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design and NAHB analysis, median single-family square floor area edged up to 2,164 square feet, just off the lowest reading since the second half of 2009. Average (mean) square footage for new single-family homes registered at 2,363 square feet.

Since Great Recession lows (and on a one-year moving average basis), the average size of a new single-family home is now effectively flat at 2,387 square feet, while the median size is about 3% higher at 2,165 square feet.

Home size rose from 2009 to 2015 as entry-level new construction lost market share. Home size declined between 2016 and 2020 as more starter homes were developed. After a brief increase during the post-COVID building boom, home size trended lower due to declining affordability conditions. As interest rates decline, new home size could level off and increase in the quarters ahead.

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Single-family built-for-rent construction posted year-over-year gains as of the second quarter of 2024, as builders sought to add additional rental housing in a market facing ongoing, elevated mortgage interest rates.

According to NAHB’s analysis of data from the Census Bureau’s Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, there were approximately 23,000 single-family built-for-rent (SFBFR) starts during the second quarter of 2024. This is almost 10% higher than the second quarter of 2023. Over the last four quarters, 83,000 such homes began construction, which is a more than 20% increase compared to the 69,000 estimated SFBFR starts in the four quarters prior to that period.

The SFBFR market is a source of inventory amid challenges over housing affordability and downpayment requirements in the for-sale market, particularly during a period when a growing number of people want more space and a single-family structure. Single-family built-for-rent construction differs in terms of structural characteristics compared to other newly-built single-family homes, particularly with respect to home size. However, investor demand for single-family homes, both existing and new, has cooled with higher interest rates. Nonetheless, builders continue to build projects of built-for-rent homes for their own operation.

Given the relatively small size of this market segment, the quarter-to-quarter movements typically are not statistically significant. The current four-quarter moving average of market share (8%) is nonetheless higher than the historical average of 2.7% (1992-2012).

Importantly, as measured for this analysis, the estimates noted above include only homes built and held by the builder for rental purposes. The estimates exclude homes that are sold to another party for rental purposes, which NAHB estimates may represent another three to five percent of single-family starts based on industry surveys.

The Census data notes an elevated share of single-family homes built as condos (non-fee simple), with this share averaging more than 3% over recent quarters. Some, but certainly not all, of these homes will be used for rental purposes. Additionally, it is theoretically possible some single-family built-for-rent units are being counted in multifamily starts, as a form of “horizontal multifamily,” given these units are often built on a single plat of land. However, spot checks by NAHB with permitting offices indicate no evidence of this data issue occurring.

Nonetheless, demand by investors for single-family rental units, new and existing, has cooled in recent quarters as financial conditions remain tight. This will continue to cool some investor demand for SFBFR housing.

With the onset of the Great Recession and declines for the homeownership rate, the share of built-for-rent homes increased in the years after the recession. While the market share of SFBFR homes is small, it has clearly expanded. Given affordability challenges in the for-sale market, the SFBFR market will likely retain an elevated market share even as the sector cools in the quarters ahead.

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High interest rates for construction and development loans as well as ongoing challenges regarding labor shortages and higher prices for many building materials continued to slow the building market this summer.

Overall housing starts decreased 6.8% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.24 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. This is the lowest pace since May 2020.

The July reading of 1.24 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts decreased 14.1% from an upwardly revised June figure to an 851,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate. However, on a year-to-date basis, single-family starts are up 11.4%.

The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, increased 14.5% to an annualized 387,000 pace.

The decline in new home construction mirrors our latest builder surveys (the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI), which show that buyers remain concerned about challenging affordability conditions and builders are grappling with elevated rates for builder loans, a shortage of workers and lots, and supply chain concerns for some building materials.

Better inflation data points to the Federal Reserve moving to cut interest rates possibly as early as September, and with interest rates expected to moderate in the months ahead, this will help both buyers and builders who are dealing with tight lending conditions.

On a regional and year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts are 1.3% lower in the Northeast, 5.1% lower in the Midwest, 5.4% lower in the South and 5.1% lower in the West.

Overall permits decreased 4.0% to a 1.40 million unit annualized rate in July. Single-family permits decreased 0.1% to a 938,000 unit rate. Multifamily permits decreased 11.1% to an annualized 458,000 pace.

Looking at regional data on a year-to-date basis, permits are 1.1% higher in the Northeast, 3.2% higher in the Midwest, 0.3% lower in the South and 4.1% lower in the West.

Single-family homes under construction fell back to a count of 653,000—down 4.1% compared to a year ago. The number of multifamily units under construction fell to an 886,000 count—down 13.2% compared to a year ago. The number of multifamily units under construction is now the lowest since July 2022.

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Over the first half of 2024, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 514,728. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is an increase of 14.6% over the June 2023 level of 449,226.

Year-to-date ending in June, single-family permits were up in all four regions. The range of permit increases spanned 19.9% in the West to 8.2% in the Northeast. The Midwest was up by 15.8% and the South was up by 13.2% in single-family permits during this time. For multifamily permits, three out of the four regions posted declines. The Northeast, the only region to post an increase, was up by 29.7%. Meanwhile the West posted a decline of 32.0%, the South declined by 24.4%, and the Midwest declined by 12.5%.

Between June 2024 YTD and June 2023 YTD, 47 states posted an increase in single-family permits. The range of increases spanned 44.3% in Arizona to 3.0% in Alaska. Rhode Island (-0.3%), New Hampshire (-1.3%), Hawaii (-6.8%), and the District of Columbia (-9.0%) reported declines in single-family permits.The ten states issuing the highest number of single-family permits combined accounted for 64.2% of the total single-family permits issued. Texas, the state with the highest number of single-family permits, issued 84,920 permits over the first half of 2024, which is an increase of 18.2% compared to the same period last year. The succeeding highest state, Florida, was up by 9.2%, while the third highest, North Carolina, posted an increase of 10.6%.

Year-to-date ending in June, the total number of multifamily permits issued nationwide reached 237,935. This is 18.9% below the June 2023 level of 293,301.

Between June 2024 YTD and June 2023 YTD, 19 states recorded growth in multifamily permits, while 31 states and the District of Columbia recorded a decline. New York (+109.8%) led the way with a sharp rise in multifamily permits from 8,943 to 18,761, while the District of Columbia had the biggest decline of 71.0% from 1,677 to 487. The ten states issuing the highest number of multifamily permits combined accounted for 64.3% of the multifamily permits issued. Over the first half of 2024, Texas, the state with the highest number of multifamily permits issued, experienced a decline of 35.2%. Following closely, the second-highest state in multifamily permits, Florida, saw a decline of 24.1%. California, the third largest multifamily issuing state, decreased by 29.8%.

At the local level, below are the top ten metro areas that issued the highest number of single-family permits.

For multifamily permits, below are the top ten local areas that issued the highest number of permits.

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