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Single-Family Housing Starts Hit 12-Month High in February

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Limited existing inventory helped single-family starts to post a solid gain in February, but builders are still grappling with elevated construction costs stemming from tariff issues and persistent shortages related to buildable lots and labor.

Overall housing starts increased 11.2% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.50 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The February reading of 1.50 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months.

Within this overall number, single-family starts increased 11.4% to a 1.11 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, the highest pace since February 2024. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, increased 10.7% to an annualized 393,000 pace.

While solid demand and a lack of existing inventory provided a boost to single-family production in February, our latest builder survey shows that builders remain concerned about challenging housing affordability conditions, most notably elevated financing and construction costs as well as tariffs on key building materials.

On a regional and year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts were 4.7% lower in the Northeast, 21.5% lower in the Midwest, 8.3% lower in the South and 20.2% higher in the West.

Overall permits decreased 1.2% to a 1.46-million-unit annualized rate in February and were down 6.8% compared to February 2024. Single-family permits decreased 0.2% to a 992,000-unit rate and were down 3.4% compared to the previous year. Multifamily permits decreased 3.1% to a 464,000 pace.

Looking at regional permit data on a year-to-date basis, permits were 30.1% lower in the Northeast, 2.3% higher in the Midwest, 2.1% lower in the South and 12.5% lower in the West.

The number of single-family homes under construction in February was down 6.7% from a year ago, at 640,000 homes. In February, the count of apartments under construction increased 0.3% to an annualized 772,000 pace. It marks the first gain after 18 months of consecutive declines but was still down 20% from a year ago.

There were 526,000 multifamily completions in February, down 15% from the previous year. For each apartment starting construction, there are 1.5 apartments completing the construction process.

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HBGI Q4 2024: Single-Family Construction Ends Year with Growth

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The continued shortage of existing homes for sale has helped to keep new single-family construction growing across all regions, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders release of the Home Building Geography Index (HBGI). Despite persistent factors that continue to affect housing affordability, including a limited supply of buildable lots, rising construction costs, and a shortage of skilled labor, single-family construction grew over all four quarters of 2024. Multifamily construction remained lackluster but did feature some growth in lower density areas.

Single-Family

All HBGI-tracked geographies posted another quarter of growth in the fourth quarter after peaking in the second quarter. The HBGI is constructed using permit data, which has continued to post higher volumes than last year despite residential construction dealing with persistent structural issues.

Among the HBGI geographies, the highest growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 was registered in small metro core counties, which increased 10.3% year-over-year on a four-quarter moving average basis (4QMA). The market with the lowest level of growth was non metro/micro counties which were up 4.8% year-over-year (4QMA).

In terms of market share, single-family construction took place primarily in small metro core county areas, representing 29.1% of single-family construction. The smallest single-family construction market remained non metro/micro county areas, with a 4.2% market share.

Multifamily

Multifamily construction continued to register negative growth rates across the largest markets, with large metro core county areas posting a decline of 13.5% quartering in the fourth quarter (4QMA). While permit levels remain lower for new multifamily construction, there were some positive signs in less densely populated areas. Small metro outlying county areas had the largest growth rate in the fourth quarter at 9.0%, the second consecutive quarter of growth. These areas make up around 5.0% of the total multifamily construction market.

The fourth quarter of 2024 HBGI data along with an interactive HBGI map can be found at http://nahb.org/hbgi.

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Single-Family Home Size Increases

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An expected impact of the virus crisis was a need for more residential space, as people used homes for more purposes including work. Home size correspondingly increased in 2021 as interest rates reached historic lows. However, as interest rates increased in 2022 and 2023, and housing affordability worsened, the demand for home size has trended lower. As markets expect some decline for long-term interest rates, will new single-family home size reverse and move higher in 2025? Data from the end of 2024 suggests this may be occurring.

According to fourth quarter 2024 data from the Census Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design and NAHB analysis, median single-family square floor area was 2,205 square feet, the highest reading since mid-2023. Average (mean) square footage for new single-family homes registered at 2,417 square feet.

The average size of a new single-family home, on a one-year moving average basis, trended higher to 2,373 square feet, while the median size is at 2,162 square feet.

Home size increased from 2009 to 2015 as entry-level new construction lost market share. Home size declined between 2016 and 2020 as more starter homes were developed. After a brief increase during the post-COVID building boom, home size has trended lower due to declining affordability conditions. As interest rates decline, new home size could level off and increase on a sustained basis in the quarters ahead.

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Single-Family Built-for-Rent Construction Falls Back

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Single-family built-for-rent construction posted year-over-year declines for the fourth quarter of 2024, as a higher cost of financing crowded out development activity. This slowdown is similar to the deceleration of multifamily construction in recent quarters.

According to NAHB’s analysis of data from the Census Bureau’s Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, there were approximately 15,000 single-family built-for-rent (SFBFR) starts during the fourth quarter of 2024. This is 38% lower than the fourth quarter of 2023. Over the last four quarters (2024 as a whole), 83,000 such homes began construction, which is an 8% increase compared to the 77,000 estimated SFBFR starts in the four quarters prior to that period (2023 as a whole).

The SFBFR market is a source of inventory amid challenges over housing affordability and downpayment requirements in the for-sale market, particularly during a period when a growing number of people want more space and a single-family structure. Single-family built-for-rent construction differs in terms of structural characteristics compared to other newly-built single-family homes, particularly with respect to home size. However, investor demand for single-family homes, both existing and new, has cooled with higher interest rates.

Given the relatively small size of this market segment, the quarter-to-quarter movements typically are not statistically significant. The current four-quarter moving average of market share (8%) is nonetheless higher than the historical average of 2.7% (1992-2012).

Importantly, as measured for this analysis, the estimates noted above include only homes built and held by the builder for rental purposes. The estimates exclude homes that are sold to another party for rental purposes, which NAHB estimates may represent another three to five percent of single-family starts based on industry surveys.

The Census data notes an elevated share of single-family homes built as condos (non-fee simple), with this share averaging more than 4% over recent quarters. Some, but certainly not all, of these homes will be used for rental purposes. Additionally, it is theoretically possible some single-family built-for-rent units are being counted in multifamily starts, as a form of “horizontal multifamily,” given these units are often built on a single plat of land. However, spot checks by NAHB with permitting offices indicate no evidence of this data issue occurring.

With the onset of the Great Recession and declines for the homeownership rate, the share of built-for-rent homes increased in the years after the recession. While the market share of SFBFR homes is small, it has clearly expanded. Given affordability challenges in the for-sale market, the SFBFR market will likely retain an elevated market share. However, in the near-term, SFBFR construction is likely to slow until the return on new deals improves.

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Single-Family Permits End 2024 with Strong Momentum

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Over 2024, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 981,834. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is an increase of 8.0% over the 2023 level of 909,227.

Year-to-date ending in December, single-family permits were up in all four regions. The range of permit increases spanned 11.1% in the Midwest to 6.2% in the South. The West was up by 10.9% and the Northeast was up by 9.3% in single-family permits during this time. For multifamily permits, three out of the four regions posted declines. The Northeast, driven by New York City’s MSA, was the only region to post an increase and was up by 38.5%. Meanwhile, the West posted a decline of 26.9%, the South declined by 19.5%, and the Midwest declined by 1.1%.

Between December 2024 YTD and December 2023 YTD, 45 states posted an increase in single-family permits. The range of increases spanned 33.8% in Montana to 0.1% in South Dakota. The remining five states and the District of Columbia reported declines in single-family permits. The ten states issuing the highest number of single-family permits combined accounted for 63.1% of the total single-family permits issued. Texas, the state with the highest number of single-family permits, issued 158,544 permits over 2024, which is an increase of 9.3% compared to the same period last year. The second highest state, Florida, was down by 0.9%, while the third highest, North Carolina, posted an increase of 6.7%.

For 2024, the total number of multifamily permits issued nationwide reached 489,533. This is 12.8% below the 2023 level of 561,369.

Between December 2024 YTD and December 2023 YTD, 22 states recorded growth in multifamily permits, while 28 states and the District of Columbia recorded a decline. New York (+128.7%) led the way with a sharp rise in multifamily permits from 15,293 to 34,982, while Idaho had the biggest decline of 53.0% from 5,891 to 2,771. The ten states issuing the highest number of multifamily permits combined accounted for 62.4% of the multifamily permits issued. Over 2024, Texas, the state with the highest number of multifamily permits issued, experienced a decline of 18.6%. Florida, the second-highest state in multifamily permits, saw a decline of 27.5%. California, the third largest multifamily issuing state, decreased by 26.2%.

At the local level, below are the top ten metro areas that issued the highest number of single-family permits.

For multifamily permits, below are the top ten local areas that issued the highest number of permits.

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Single-Family Permits Up in November 2024

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Over the first eleven months of 2024, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 912,910. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is an increase of 8.2% over the November 2023 level of 843,654.

Year-to-date ending in November, single-family permits were up in all four regions. The range of permit increases spanned 11.5% in the Midwest to 6.3% in the South. The West was up by 11.4% and the Northeast was up by 9.4% in single-family permits during this time. For multifamily permits, three out of the four regions posted declines. The Northeast, driven by New York City’s MSA, was the only region to post an increase and was up by 32.6%. Meanwhile, the West posted a decline of 29.7%, the South declined by 19.6%, and the Midwest declined by 3.1%.

Between November 2024 YTD and November 2023 YTD, 44 states posted an increase in single-family permits. The range of increases spanned 31.4% in Montana to 2.6% in Missouri. The remining six states and the District of Columbia reported declines in single-family permits. The ten states issuing the highest number of single-family permits combined accounted for 62.9% of the total single-family permits issued. Texas, the state with the highest number of single-family permits, issued 146,843 permits over the first eleven months of 2024, which is an increase of 8.8% compared to the same period last year. The second highest state, Florida, was down by 0.3%, while the third highest, North Carolina, posted an increase of 7.0%.

Year-to-date ending in November, the total number of multifamily permits issued nationwide reached 445,357. This is 14.5% below the November 2023 level of 520,919.

Between November 2024 YTD and November 2023 YTD, 21 states recorded growth in multifamily permits, while 29 states and the District of Columbia recorded a decline. New York (+113.8%) led the way with a sharp rise in multifamily permits from 14,544 to 31,098, while Idaho had the biggest decline of 54.3% from 5,469 to 2,497. The ten states issuing the highest number of multifamily permits combined accounted for 62.3% of the multifamily permits issued. Over the first eleven months of 2024, Texas, the state with the highest number of multifamily permits issued, experienced a decline of 21.3%. Following closely, the second-highest state in multifamily permits, Florida, saw a decline of 25.0%. California, the third largest multifamily issuing state, decreased by 32.0%.

At the local level, below are the top ten metro areas that issued the highest number of single-family permits.

For multifamily permits, below are the top ten local areas that issued the highest number of permits.

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Single-Family Starts Posts Solid Gain While Multifamily Falters

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Ongoing lean levels of single-family existing home inventory helped to boost single-family production in November, while overall housing production fell because of a double-digit percentage drop in multifamily construction.

Overall housing starts decreased 1.8% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.29 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

The November reading of 1.29 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts increased 6.4% to a 1.01 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. On a year-to-date basis, single-family construction is up 7.2%. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, decreased 23.2% to an annualized 278,000 pace.

While the pace of single-family starts increased in November, single-family permitting was flat as builders face mixed market conditions that include an election result that promises a focus on regulatory relief, but ongoing elevated mortgage rates.

NAHB is forecasting single-family starts to post a slight increase in 2025 as the financing conditions for builders improve modestly. The significant decline for apartment construction is forecasted to end next year, with that market stabilizing during the second half of 2025.

On a regional and year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts are 7.3% higher in the Northeast, 2.4% lower in the Midwest, 5.8% lower in the South and 5.9% lower in the West.

Overall permits increased 6.1% to a 1.51 million unit annualized rate in November. Single-family permits increased 0.1% to a 972,000 unit rate and are up 8.0% on a year-to-date basis. Multifamily permits increased 19.0% to an annualized 533,000 pace.

Looking at regional data on a year-to-date basis, permits are 3.2% higher in the Northeast, 4.8% higher in the Midwest, 2.5% lower in the South and 7.0% lower in the West.

The number of single-family units under construction is down 6.3% from a year ago, declining to 637,000 homes. The number of multifamily units under construction is down 20.5% from a year ago, to 797,000 units.

In November, there were two multifamily units completed for every one unit starting construction. Two years ago, there were just 0.7 multifamily units being completed for every 1 unit starting construction.

The count of multifamily units in 5-plus unit properties units completing construction of is up 36.1% on a year-to-date basis for 2024. In contrast, single-family completions are up 3.6% on a year-to-date basis.

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Single-Family Permits Up in October 2024

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Over the first ten months of 2024, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 846,446. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is an increase of 9.4% over the October 2023 level of 773,526.

Year-to-date ending in October, single-family permits were up in all four regions. The range of permit increases spanned 13.6% in the West to 7.2% in the South. The Midwest was up by 12.4% and the Northeast was up by 10.8% in single-family permits during this time. For multifamily permits, three out of the four regions posted declines. The Northeast, driven by New York, was the only region to post an increase and was up by 26.6%. Meanwhile, the West posted a decline of 30.1%, the South declined by 21.4%, and the Midwest declined by 5.0%.

Between October 2024 YTD and October 2023 YTD, 46 states posted an increase in single-family permits. The range of increases spanned 33.0% in Montana to 0.7% in Florida. New Mexico (-1.3%), the District of Columbia (1.4%), New Hampshire (-2.6%), Alaska (-4.4%), and Hawaii (-5.2%) reported declines in single-family permits. The ten states issuing the highest number of single-family permits combined accounted for 62.9% of the total single-family permits issued. Texas, the state with the highest number of single-family permits, issued 136,374 permits over the first ten months of 2024, which is an increase of 9.7% compared to the same period last year. The second highest state, Florida, was up by 0.7%, while the third highest, North Carolina, posted an increase of 7.9%.

Year-to-date ending in October, the total number of multifamily permits issued nationwide reached 403,422. This is 16.2% below the October 2023 level of 481,612.

Between October 2024 YTD and October 2023 YTD, 19 states recorded growth in multifamily permits, while 31 states and the District of Columbia recorded a decline. Rhode Island (+143.5%) led the way with a sharp rise in multifamily permits from 322 to 784, while Idaho had the biggest decline of 56.6% from 4,899 to 2,126. The ten states issuing the highest number of multifamily permits combined accounted for 62.9% of the multifamily permits issued. Over the first ten months of 2024, Texas, the state with the highest number of multifamily permits issued, experienced a decline of 24.6%. Following closely, the second-highest state in multifamily permits, Florida, saw a decline of 26.4%. California, the third largest multifamily issuing state, decreased by 31.2%.

At the local level, below are the top ten metro areas that issued the highest number of single-family permits.

For multifamily permits, below are the top ten local areas that issued the highest number of permits.

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Single-Family Home Size Nearing Turning Point?

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An expected impact of the virus crisis was a need for more residential space, as people used homes for more purposes including work. Home size correspondingly increased in 2021 as interest rates reached historic lows. However, as interest rates increased in 2022 and 2023, and housing affordability worsened, the demand for home size has trended lower. With lower long-term interest rates coming in view, will new single-family home size reverse and move higher in 2025?

According to third quarter 2024 data from the Census Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design and NAHB analysis, median single-family square floor area was 2,158 square feet, just off the lowest reading since the second half of 2009. Average (mean) square footage for new single-family homes registered at 2,348 square feet.

The average size of a new single-family home, on a one-year moving average basis, trended lower to 2,366 square feet, while the median size is at 2,150 square feet.

Home size increased from 2009 to 2015 as entry-level new construction lost market share. Home size declined between 2016 and 2020 as more starter homes were developed. After a brief increase during the post-COVID building boom, home size has trended lower due to declining affordability conditions. As interest rates decline, new home size could level off and increase in the quarters ahead.

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Growth for Single-Family Built-for-Rent Construction

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Single-family built-for-rent construction posted year-over-year gains for the third quarter of 2024, as builders sought to add additional rental housing in a market facing ongoing, elevated mortgage interest rates.

According to NAHB’s analysis of data from the Census Bureau’s Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, there were approximately 24,000 single-family built-for-rent (SFBFR) starts during the third quarter of 2024. This is 41% higher than the third quarter of 2023. Over the last four quarters, 92,000 such homes began construction, which is a more than 31% increase compared to the 70,000 estimated SFBFR starts in the four quarters prior to that period.

The SFBFR market is a source of inventory amid challenges over housing affordability and downpayment requirements in the for-sale market, particularly during a period when a growing number of people want more space and a single-family structure. Single-family built-for-rent construction differs in terms of structural characteristics compared to other newly-built single-family homes, particularly with respect to home size. However, investor demand for single-family homes, both existing and new, has cooled with higher interest rates. Nonetheless, builders continue to build projects of built-for-rent homes for their own operation.

Given the relatively small size of this market segment, the quarter-to-quarter movements typically are not statistically significant. The current four-quarter moving average of market share (9%) is nonetheless higher than the historical average of 2.7% (1992-2012).

Importantly, as measured for this analysis, the estimates noted above include only homes built and held by the builder for rental purposes. The estimates exclude homes that are sold to another party for rental purposes, which NAHB estimates may represent another three to five percent of single-family starts based on industry surveys. However, this investor market has cooled somewhat in recent quarters due to higher interest rates.

The Census data notes an elevated share of single-family homes built as condos (non-fee simple), with this share averaging more than 4% over recent quarters. Some, but certainly not all, of these homes will be used for rental purposes. Additionally, it is theoretically possible some single-family built-for-rent units are being counted in multifamily starts, as a form of “horizontal multifamily,” given these units are often built on a single plat of land. However, spot checks by NAHB with permitting offices indicate no evidence of this data issue occurring.

With the onset of the Great Recession and declines for the homeownership rate, the share of built-for-rent homes increased in the years after the recession. While the market share of SFBFR homes is small, it has clearly expanded. Given affordability challenges in the for-sale market, the SFBFR market will likely retain an elevated market share even as the rest of the building market expands in the coming quarters.

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