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Single-Family Permits Up in November 2024

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Over the first eleven months of 2024, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 912,910. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is an increase of 8.2% over the November 2023 level of 843,654.

Year-to-date ending in November, single-family permits were up in all four regions. The range of permit increases spanned 11.5% in the Midwest to 6.3% in the South. The West was up by 11.4% and the Northeast was up by 9.4% in single-family permits during this time. For multifamily permits, three out of the four regions posted declines. The Northeast, driven by New York City’s MSA, was the only region to post an increase and was up by 32.6%. Meanwhile, the West posted a decline of 29.7%, the South declined by 19.6%, and the Midwest declined by 3.1%.

Between November 2024 YTD and November 2023 YTD, 44 states posted an increase in single-family permits. The range of increases spanned 31.4% in Montana to 2.6% in Missouri. The remining six states and the District of Columbia reported declines in single-family permits. The ten states issuing the highest number of single-family permits combined accounted for 62.9% of the total single-family permits issued. Texas, the state with the highest number of single-family permits, issued 146,843 permits over the first eleven months of 2024, which is an increase of 8.8% compared to the same period last year. The second highest state, Florida, was down by 0.3%, while the third highest, North Carolina, posted an increase of 7.0%.

Year-to-date ending in November, the total number of multifamily permits issued nationwide reached 445,357. This is 14.5% below the November 2023 level of 520,919.

Between November 2024 YTD and November 2023 YTD, 21 states recorded growth in multifamily permits, while 29 states and the District of Columbia recorded a decline. New York (+113.8%) led the way with a sharp rise in multifamily permits from 14,544 to 31,098, while Idaho had the biggest decline of 54.3% from 5,469 to 2,497. The ten states issuing the highest number of multifamily permits combined accounted for 62.3% of the multifamily permits issued. Over the first eleven months of 2024, Texas, the state with the highest number of multifamily permits issued, experienced a decline of 21.3%. Following closely, the second-highest state in multifamily permits, Florida, saw a decline of 25.0%. California, the third largest multifamily issuing state, decreased by 32.0%.

At the local level, below are the top ten metro areas that issued the highest number of single-family permits.

For multifamily permits, below are the top ten local areas that issued the highest number of permits.

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Single-Family Starts Posts Solid Gain While Multifamily Falters

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Ongoing lean levels of single-family existing home inventory helped to boost single-family production in November, while overall housing production fell because of a double-digit percentage drop in multifamily construction.

Overall housing starts decreased 1.8% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.29 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

The November reading of 1.29 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts increased 6.4% to a 1.01 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. On a year-to-date basis, single-family construction is up 7.2%. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, decreased 23.2% to an annualized 278,000 pace.

While the pace of single-family starts increased in November, single-family permitting was flat as builders face mixed market conditions that include an election result that promises a focus on regulatory relief, but ongoing elevated mortgage rates.

NAHB is forecasting single-family starts to post a slight increase in 2025 as the financing conditions for builders improve modestly. The significant decline for apartment construction is forecasted to end next year, with that market stabilizing during the second half of 2025.

On a regional and year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts are 7.3% higher in the Northeast, 2.4% lower in the Midwest, 5.8% lower in the South and 5.9% lower in the West.

Overall permits increased 6.1% to a 1.51 million unit annualized rate in November. Single-family permits increased 0.1% to a 972,000 unit rate and are up 8.0% on a year-to-date basis. Multifamily permits increased 19.0% to an annualized 533,000 pace.

Looking at regional data on a year-to-date basis, permits are 3.2% higher in the Northeast, 4.8% higher in the Midwest, 2.5% lower in the South and 7.0% lower in the West.

The number of single-family units under construction is down 6.3% from a year ago, declining to 637,000 homes. The number of multifamily units under construction is down 20.5% from a year ago, to 797,000 units.

In November, there were two multifamily units completed for every one unit starting construction. Two years ago, there were just 0.7 multifamily units being completed for every 1 unit starting construction.

The count of multifamily units in 5-plus unit properties units completing construction of is up 36.1% on a year-to-date basis for 2024. In contrast, single-family completions are up 3.6% on a year-to-date basis.

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Single-Family Permits Up in October 2024

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Over the first ten months of 2024, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 846,446. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is an increase of 9.4% over the October 2023 level of 773,526.

Year-to-date ending in October, single-family permits were up in all four regions. The range of permit increases spanned 13.6% in the West to 7.2% in the South. The Midwest was up by 12.4% and the Northeast was up by 10.8% in single-family permits during this time. For multifamily permits, three out of the four regions posted declines. The Northeast, driven by New York, was the only region to post an increase and was up by 26.6%. Meanwhile, the West posted a decline of 30.1%, the South declined by 21.4%, and the Midwest declined by 5.0%.

Between October 2024 YTD and October 2023 YTD, 46 states posted an increase in single-family permits. The range of increases spanned 33.0% in Montana to 0.7% in Florida. New Mexico (-1.3%), the District of Columbia (1.4%), New Hampshire (-2.6%), Alaska (-4.4%), and Hawaii (-5.2%) reported declines in single-family permits. The ten states issuing the highest number of single-family permits combined accounted for 62.9% of the total single-family permits issued. Texas, the state with the highest number of single-family permits, issued 136,374 permits over the first ten months of 2024, which is an increase of 9.7% compared to the same period last year. The second highest state, Florida, was up by 0.7%, while the third highest, North Carolina, posted an increase of 7.9%.

Year-to-date ending in October, the total number of multifamily permits issued nationwide reached 403,422. This is 16.2% below the October 2023 level of 481,612.

Between October 2024 YTD and October 2023 YTD, 19 states recorded growth in multifamily permits, while 31 states and the District of Columbia recorded a decline. Rhode Island (+143.5%) led the way with a sharp rise in multifamily permits from 322 to 784, while Idaho had the biggest decline of 56.6% from 4,899 to 2,126. The ten states issuing the highest number of multifamily permits combined accounted for 62.9% of the multifamily permits issued. Over the first ten months of 2024, Texas, the state with the highest number of multifamily permits issued, experienced a decline of 24.6%. Following closely, the second-highest state in multifamily permits, Florida, saw a decline of 26.4%. California, the third largest multifamily issuing state, decreased by 31.2%.

At the local level, below are the top ten metro areas that issued the highest number of single-family permits.

For multifamily permits, below are the top ten local areas that issued the highest number of permits.

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Single-Family Home Size Nearing Turning Point?

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An expected impact of the virus crisis was a need for more residential space, as people used homes for more purposes including work. Home size correspondingly increased in 2021 as interest rates reached historic lows. However, as interest rates increased in 2022 and 2023, and housing affordability worsened, the demand for home size has trended lower. With lower long-term interest rates coming in view, will new single-family home size reverse and move higher in 2025?

According to third quarter 2024 data from the Census Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design and NAHB analysis, median single-family square floor area was 2,158 square feet, just off the lowest reading since the second half of 2009. Average (mean) square footage for new single-family homes registered at 2,348 square feet.

The average size of a new single-family home, on a one-year moving average basis, trended lower to 2,366 square feet, while the median size is at 2,150 square feet.

Home size increased from 2009 to 2015 as entry-level new construction lost market share. Home size declined between 2016 and 2020 as more starter homes were developed. After a brief increase during the post-COVID building boom, home size has trended lower due to declining affordability conditions. As interest rates decline, new home size could level off and increase in the quarters ahead.

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Growth for Single-Family Built-for-Rent Construction

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Single-family built-for-rent construction posted year-over-year gains for the third quarter of 2024, as builders sought to add additional rental housing in a market facing ongoing, elevated mortgage interest rates.

According to NAHB’s analysis of data from the Census Bureau’s Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, there were approximately 24,000 single-family built-for-rent (SFBFR) starts during the third quarter of 2024. This is 41% higher than the third quarter of 2023. Over the last four quarters, 92,000 such homes began construction, which is a more than 31% increase compared to the 70,000 estimated SFBFR starts in the four quarters prior to that period.

The SFBFR market is a source of inventory amid challenges over housing affordability and downpayment requirements in the for-sale market, particularly during a period when a growing number of people want more space and a single-family structure. Single-family built-for-rent construction differs in terms of structural characteristics compared to other newly-built single-family homes, particularly with respect to home size. However, investor demand for single-family homes, both existing and new, has cooled with higher interest rates. Nonetheless, builders continue to build projects of built-for-rent homes for their own operation.

Given the relatively small size of this market segment, the quarter-to-quarter movements typically are not statistically significant. The current four-quarter moving average of market share (9%) is nonetheless higher than the historical average of 2.7% (1992-2012).

Importantly, as measured for this analysis, the estimates noted above include only homes built and held by the builder for rental purposes. The estimates exclude homes that are sold to another party for rental purposes, which NAHB estimates may represent another three to five percent of single-family starts based on industry surveys. However, this investor market has cooled somewhat in recent quarters due to higher interest rates.

The Census data notes an elevated share of single-family homes built as condos (non-fee simple), with this share averaging more than 4% over recent quarters. Some, but certainly not all, of these homes will be used for rental purposes. Additionally, it is theoretically possible some single-family built-for-rent units are being counted in multifamily starts, as a form of “horizontal multifamily,” given these units are often built on a single plat of land. However, spot checks by NAHB with permitting offices indicate no evidence of this data issue occurring.

With the onset of the Great Recession and declines for the homeownership rate, the share of built-for-rent homes increased in the years after the recession. While the market share of SFBFR homes is small, it has clearly expanded. Given affordability challenges in the for-sale market, the SFBFR market will likely retain an elevated market share even as the rest of the building market expands in the coming quarters.

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Single-Family Permits Higher in September 2024

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Over the first nine months of 2024, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 763,990. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is an increase of 10.1% over the September 2023 level of 693,908.

Year-to-date ending in September, single-family permits were up in all four regions. The range of permit increases spanned 15.8% in the West to 7.8% in the South. The Midwest was up by 11.8% and the Northeast was up by 10.1% in single-family permits during this time. For multifamily permits, three out of the four regions posted declines. The Northeast, driven by New York, was the only region to post an increase and was up by 30.1%. Meanwhile, the West posted a decline of 31.7%, the South declined by 20.7%, and the Midwest declined by 8.4%.

Between September 2024 YTD and September 2023 YTD, 46 states and the District of Columbia posted an increase in single-family permits. The range of increases spanned 43.6% in New Mexico to 0.4% in Oregon. Maryland (-1.5%), New Hampshire (-1.6%), Alaska (-4.3%), and Hawaii (-7.7%) reported declines in single-family permits. The ten states issuing the highest number of single-family permits combined accounted for 63.1% of the total single-family permits issued. Texas, the state with the highest number of single-family permits, issued 122,976 permits over the first nine months of 2024, which is an increase of 10.5% compared to the same period last year. The succeeding highest state, Florida, was up by 1.7%, while the third highest, North Carolina, posted an increase of 8.5%.

Year-to-date ending in September, the total number of multifamily permits issued nationwide reached 362,543. This is 16.4% below the September 2023 level of 433,862.

Between September 2024 YTD and September 2023 YTD, 17 states recorded growth in multifamily permits, while 32 states and the District of Columbia recorded a decline. Georgia reported no change. Rhode Island (+134.6%) led the way with a sharp rise in multifamily permits from 309 to 725, while the District of Columbia had the biggest decline of 70.5% from 2,600 to 766. The ten states issuing the highest number of multifamily permits combined accounted for 63.2% of the multifamily permits issued. Over the first nine months of 2024, Texas, the state with the highest number of multifamily permits issued, experienced a decline of 27.5%. Following closely, the second-highest state in multifamily permits, Florida, saw a decline of 27.0%. California, the third largest multifamily issuing state, decreased by 33.4%.

At the local level, below are the top ten metro areas that issued the highest number of single-family permits.

For multifamily permits, below are the top ten local areas that issued the highest number of permits.

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Owner-Occupied Single-Family Housing Units Across Congressional Districts

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With elevated interest rates and rising home prices, 103.5 million households in the United States cannot afford a $495,750 median-priced new home. The growing affordability crisis makes housing a top issue for voters in the 2024 presidential election. Both presidential candidates have offered housing policy proposals to address our nation’s housing supply and affordability challenges.

Homeownership has been a crucial part of the American Dream for over a century as owning a home not only provides households with a stable place to live, but also offers an opportunity for households to accumulate assets and build wealth over time through equity.

A recent NAHB study on home buyer preferences revealed that a single-family detached home remained the top purchase preference for two out of every three buyers. In reality, only 54% of the total housing units in 2023 were owner-occupied single-family detached homes, according to NAHB analysis of American Community Survey (ACS) data. This equates to around 70 million homes of the total 131 million housing units.

In addition, a recent article in the Washington Post stated that “the new American Dream should be a townhouse (using the term of single-family attached homes in this post).” The article argues that townhouses are more affordable, need less maintenance, and foster a sense of community. Additionally, townhomes in medium-density residential neighborhoods can be a good option for younger home buyers. However, owner-occupied single-family attached homes only accounted for 4% of the total occupied housing units in 2023.

Single-Family Detached Homes Across Congressional Districts

Across congressional districts, the share of single-family detached homes among all owner-occupied housing units varies substantially, ranging from 3% to 95%.

Texas has a high share of owner-occupied single-family homes. Texas’s 20th congressional district has the highest share of single-family detached homes. All congressional districts in Texas have at least an 83% share of single-family detached homes. Four districts in Texas, two in Indiana and Nebraska, one in Iowa, and one in California report the top ten highest share of single-family detached homes.

At the bottom of the ranking, congressional districts in New York and Pennsylvania are on the list of the ten lowest shares of single-family detached homes. New York’s 12th, 13th, and 10th, where renter-occupied housing units exceed owner-occupied ones, have the lowest share with 3%, 4%, and 5%, respectively. In addition to a lower share of single-family detached homes, New York’s 12th and 13th have a low share of single-family attached homes, with 2% for both districts. In the District of Columbia, at-large, 22% of owner-occupied single-family housing units are detached, ranked as the 12th lowest share.

Despite the geographic variation, single-family detached homes dominate most of the owner-occupied housing markets. Out of all 436 congressional districts, only 18 congressional districts have a lower share of single-family detached homes than the national level of 54%.

Single-Family Attached Homes Across Congressional Districts

Although single-family attached homes are not as popular as single-family detached homes in the owner-occupied housing market, the share of single-family attached homes shows substantial variation across congressional districts, ranging from 0% to 78%.

Pennsylvania’s 3rd congressional district has about 78% single-family attached homes, followed by Pennsylvania’s 2nd district with 75% single-family attached homes, and Maryland’s 7th district with 57%. The District of Columbia, at-large, with only 22% single-family detached homes, was ranked as the fourth highest share of single-family attached homes (43%).

Single-family attached homes have become popular as more home buyers are looking for “medium-density residential neighborhoods, such as urban villages that offer walkable environments and other amenities”, as mentioned in an NAHB blog post.

Median Home Value

The median value of owner-occupied housing units in the United States is $340,200, though it varies significantly across congressional districts depending on local housing supply and demand, property size, neighborhood, and overall economic factors. Coastal areas often have significantly higher median home values than rural regions.

Analysis of the 2023 ACS data shows that of the 14 congressional districts where median house value exceeds one million, 12 of them are in California. California’s 16th congressional district has the highest median home value of $1,820,400 among all congressional districts, with 81% of 159,895 owner-occupied housing units valuing more than one million dollars.

New York’s 12th and 10th congressional districts, with only 3% and 5% single-family detached homes, are the other two districts where median home value is over one million.

Additional housing data for your congressional district are provided by the US Census Bureau here.

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Single-Family Starts Trend Higher in September

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With the Federal Reserve beginning an easing of monetary policy and builder sentiment improving, single-family starts posted a modest gain in September while multifamily construction continued to weaken because of tight financing and an ongoing rise in completed apartments.

Overall housing starts decreased 0.5% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.35 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

The September reading of 1.35 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts increased 2.7% to a 1.03 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. On a year-to-date basis, single-family construction is up 10.1%. The September gain for single-family home building mirrored an increase for the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI.

While single-family home building increased in September, higher mortgage interest rates in October are likely to place a damper on growth in next month’s data. Nonetheless, NAHB is forecasting a gradual, if uneven, decline for mortgage rates in the coming quarters, with corresponding increases for single-family construction.

The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, decreased 9.4% to an annualized 327,000 pace. This marks the weakest pace since May. Multifamily construction will remain weak as completions of apartments are elevated.

On a regional and year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts are 9.0% higher in the Northeast, 2.0% lower in the Midwest, 4.6% lower in the South and 5.4% lower in the West.

Overall permits decreased 2.9% to a 1.43 million unit annualized rate in September. Single-family permits increased 0.3% to a 970,000 unit rate. Multifamily permits decreased 8.9% to an annualized 458,000 pace. This is the weakest reading since May.

Looking at regional data on a year-to-date basis, permits are 0.8% higher in the Northeast, 2.6% higher in the Midwest, 2.2% lower in the South and 5.1% lower in the West.

The number of single-family homes under active construction totaled 642,000 in September. After stabilizing recently, this is down just 4.5% from a year ago. The number of multifamily units under construction declined 3.4% in September to an 842,000 total. This is 16.5% lower than a year ago and is the smallest count since February 2022.

As a sign of the reversal for multifamily construction, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of multifamily construction was 680,000 in September. This was roughly twice the pace of multifamily starts, meaning for every two apartments finishing construction, only one new unit began construction. The pace of multifamily completions was up 41% compared to a year ago.

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Single-Family Permits Higher in August 2024

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Over the first eight months of 2024, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 685,923. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is an increase of 11.5% over the August 2023 level of 615,453.

Year-to-date ending in August, single-family permits were up in all four regions. The range of permit increases spanned 16.2% in the West to 9.7% in the South. The Midwest was up by 12.3% and the Northeast was up by 10.3% in single-family permits during this time. For multifamily permits, three out of the four regions posted declines. The Northeast, driven by New York, was the only region to post an increase and was up by 28.9%. Meanwhile, the West posted a decline of 32.2%, the South declined by 21.8%, and the Midwest declined by 9.0%.

Between August 2024 YTD and August 2023 YTD, 47 states posted an increase in single-family permits. The range of increases spanned 44.5% in New Mexico to 1.5% in Maryland. New Hampshire (-1.2%), the District of Columbia (-3.2%), Hawaii (-7.9%), and Alaska (-21.4%) reported declines in single-family permits. The ten states issuing the highest number of single-family permits combined accounted for 63.5% of the total single-family permits issued. Texas, the state with the highest number of single-family permits, issued 110,907 permits over the first eight months of 2024, which is an increase of 12.4% compared to the same period last year. The succeeding highest state, Florida, was up by 5.0%, while the third highest, North Carolina, posted an increase of 10.6%.

Year-to-date ending in August, the total number of multifamily permits issued nationwide reached 326,080. This is 17.3% below the August 2023 level of 394,257.

Between August 2024 YTD and August 2023 YTD, 18 states recorded growth in multifamily permits, while 32 states and the District of Columbia recorded a decline. Wyoming (+104.8%) led the way with a sharp rise in multifamily permits from 125 to 256, while the District of Columbia had the biggest decline of 68.1% from 2,072 to 661. The ten states issuing the highest number of multifamily permits combined accounted for 64.1% of the multifamily permits issued. Over the first eight months of 2024, Texas, the state with the highest number of multifamily permits issued, experienced a decline of 27.8%. Following closely, the second-highest state in multifamily permits, Florida, saw a decline of 25.1%. California, the third largest multifamily issuing state, decreased by 31.5%.

At the local level, below are the top ten metro areas that issued the highest number of single-family permits.

For multifamily permits, below are the top ten local areas that issued the highest number of permits.

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Bedrooms in New Single-Family Homes in 2023

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In 2023, the most common number of bedrooms in newly-built single-family homes continued to be three at a 45.7% share.  This share is up almost three percentage points from 42.8% in 2022. The second highest share was single-family homes with four bedrooms at 33.1%, followed by homes with two bedrooms or less at 11.5% and then homes with five or more bedrooms at 9.7%.

As shown above, the share of single-family homes started with three bedrooms rose to its highest level since 2019. While this share rose, the second most frequently built number of bedrooms (four) fell to 33.1%, the lowest share for such homes since 2012. At the same time, the share of new single-family homes with 2 bedrooms or less reached its highest level since 2012. The share of homes with five bedrooms or more has remained fairly stagnant at around 10% over the past ten years.

Regions

Across U.S. Census divisions, the share of new single-family homes with four or more bedrooms features distinct variations. The share ranged from a low of 22.0% in the New England division to the highest share of 47.9% in the West South Central division. Coinciding with the fall in the share of new single-family homes with 4 bedrooms or more nationally, there are no divisions that have a share above 50%. In 2022, the data featured the South Atlantic (51.7%), Pacific (51.4%) and West South Central (50.6%) all with above 50% shares.

Purpose of Construction

The number of bedrooms in the home greatly varied in 2023 depending on a new single-family home’s purpose of construction (built-for-sale, contractor-built, owner-built, built-for-rent). Most of this variation comes from the two-bedroom or less homes and four-bedrooms homes. For example, the share of new single-family homes with two bedrooms or less ranges from 5.7% of homes built-for-sale to 38.4% of homes built-for-rent. Meanwhile, three-bedroom homes and five or more bedroom homes display relatively little change across purpose of construction, as shown in the chart below.   

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