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Reflecting the sharp increase in net immigration of recent years, the number of new immigrants joining the construction industry rose substantially in 2022. According to the latest American Community Survey (ACS), the industry managed to attract close to 130,000 new workers coming from outside the U.S. to help with persistent labor shortages. For comparison, this inflow surpasses the combined number of new immigrants who joined the industry in the two years prior to the pandemic. Only during the housing boom of 2005-2006, was the industry absorbing a similar number of new foreign-born workers.
Native-born workers remain reluctant to join the industry, with their total count remaining below the record levels of the housing boom of the mid-2000s by over half a million. As a result, the share of immigrants in construction reached a new historic high of 25.5%. In construction trades, the share of immigrants remains even higher, with one in three craftsmen coming from outside the U.S. This is consistent with the earlier ACS data that regularly shows higher shares of immigrants in the construction trades.
In 2023, 11.9 million workers, including both self-employed and temporarily unemployed, comprised the construction workforce. Out of these, 8.9 million were native-born, and 3 million were foreign-born, the highest number of immigrant workers in construction ever recorded by the ACS.
The construction labor force, including both native- and foreign-born workers, exceeds the pre-pandemic levels but remains smaller than during the housing boom of the mid-2000s. As the chart above illustrates, it is the native-born workers that remain missing. Compared to the peak employment levels of 2006, construction is short 550,000 native-born workers and new immigrants only partially close the gap. Due to the data collection issues during the early pandemic lockdown stages, we do not have reliable estimates for 2020 and omit these in the chart above.
Typically, the annual flow of new immigrant workers into construction is highly responsive to the changing labor demand. The number of newly arrived immigrants in construction rises rapidly when housing starts are rising and declines precipitously when the housing industry is contracting. The response of immigration is normally quite rapid, occurring in the same year as a change in construction activity. Statistically, the link is captured by high correlation between the annual flow of new immigrants into construction and measures of new home construction, especially new single-family starts.
The latest data show that the substantial uptick in the number of new immigrants in 2022 does not reflect the changing volume of home building as new single-family starts declined during that time period.
Previously, the link between immigrant inflow and home building activity also disconnected in 2017 when NAHB’s estimates showed a surprising drop in the number of new immigrants in construction despite steady gains in housing starts. The connection was further severed by pandemic-triggered lockdowns and restrictions on travel and border crossings, drastically interrupting the flow of new immigrant workers. In 2021, however, the flow of immigrants into construction returned to typical levels driven by home building activity.
The overall rising trend and the noticeable uptick after the pandemic in the share of immigrants are consistent with but more pronounced in construction compared to broader U.S. economy. Excluding construction, where the reliance on foreign-born workers is greater, the share of immigrants in the U.S. labor force increased from just over 14% in 2004 to over 17% in 2023, the highest share recorded by the ACS.
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Building on the post-pandemic trend, the share of young adults (aged 25-34) living with their parents fell to a decade low, according to NAHB analysis of 2022 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS). However, young adults continue to face difficult decisions about their living arrangements due to elevated home prices and increasing costs of living. While some young people established independent households during the pandemic, according to 2023 ACS data, many young adults continue to live with their parents in higher-cost areas, with variations across states and congressional districts.
In general, the share of young adults (aged 18-34) living with parents positively correlates with housing costs, particularly in coastal areas. This trend reflects young adults’ increasing financial burdens as both rents and home prices surge. A previous post demonstrated that more than half of renter households spend 30% or more of their income on housing, suggesting that affordability issues may delay young adults’ independence and path to homeownership.
In 2023, 31.8% of young adults (aged 18-34) lived with their parents at the national level using 2023 ACS data. Across congressional districts, the share of young adults living with parents varies significantly, reflecting different local housing affordability challenges. The shares are generally higher than the previous study, as this analysis includes adults aged 18-24. The top five congressional districts with the highest shares of young adults living with parents are located in areas with high housing costs and limited rental options. These districts include:
New York, District 3, 58.6%
New York, District 4, 56.5%
New York, District 1, 56.5%
California, District 38, 54.0%
New Jersey, District 5, 53.4%
In contrast, the bottom five congressional districts with the lowest shares of young adults living with parents are in major cities known for high housing costs, low homeownership rates and robust rental markets. As rental options provide more independence, a higher share of renter households in California, New York and Washington appears to be associated with fewer young adults living with parents. The bottom five districts include:
New York, District 12, 8.4%
Texas, District 37, 9.6%
California, District 11, 11.6%
Washington, District 7, 11.7%
District of Columbia, At Large, 12.2%
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Housing’s share of the economy fell 0.1 percentage points to 16.2% in the third quarter of 2024 according to the advance estimate of GDP produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The share was revised upwards for both the first and second quarter of 2024 to 16.3%.
The more cyclical home building and remodeling component – residential fixed investment (RFI) – was 4.0% of GDP, slightly lower than the 4.1% in the second quarter. RFI subtracted 21 basis points from the headline GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2024, the second consecutive quarter where RFI negatively contributed to GDP growth.
In the third quarter, housing services added 18 basis points (bps) to GDP growth while the share grew to 12.2% of GDP. Among household expenditures for services, housing services contributions were the third-highest contributor to headline GDP growth behind health care (30 bps) and food service and accommodations (19 bps), while above other services (12 bps) and transportation services (10 bps). The graph above stacks the nominal shares for housing services and RFI, resulting in housing’s total share of the economy.
Overall GDP increased at a 2.8% annual rate, down from a 3.0% increase in the second quarter of 2024, but up from a 1.6% increase in the first quarter of 2024.
Housing-related activities contribute to GDP in two basic ways:
The first is through residential fixed investment (RFI). RFI is effectively the measure of home building, multifamily development, and remodeling contributions to GDP. RFI consists of two specific types of investment, the first is residential structures. This investment includes construction of new single-family and multifamily structures, residential remodeling, production of manufactured homes, brokers’ fees and some types of equipment that are built into the structure. RFI’s second component, residential equipment, includes investment such as furniture or household appliances that are purchased by landlords for rental to tenants.
For the third quarter, RFI was 4.0% of the economy, recording a $1.175 trillion seasonally adjusted annual pace. RFI shrank 5.1% at an annual rate in the third quarter after falling 2.8% in the second. Among the two types of RFI, real investment in residential structures fell 5.3% while for residential equipment it rose 2.2%. Investment in residential structures stood at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of $1.153 trillion, making its share of residential investment far greater than that of residential equipment, which was at seasonally adjusted annual pace of $21.5 billion.
The second impact of housing on GDP is the measure of housing services. Similar as we saw with RFI, housing services consumption can be broken out into two components. The first component, housing, includes gross rents paid by renters, owners’ imputed rent (an estimate of how much it would cost to rent owner-occupied units), rental value of farm dwellings and group housing. The inclusion of owners’ imputed rent is necessary from a national income accounting approach, because without this measure, increases in homeownership would result in declines in GDP. The second component, household utilities, is composed of consumption expenditures on water supply, sanitation, electricity, and gas.
For the third quarter, housing services represented 12.2% of the economy or $3.581 trillion on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. Housing services grew 1.5% at an annual rate in the third quarter. Real personal consumption expenditures for housing grew 1.4% while household utilities expenditures grew 1.7%. At current dollar expenditure level, housing expenditures was $3.124 trillion and household utility expenditures stood at $456.6 billion in seasonally adjusted annual rates.
Housing service growth is much less volatile when compared to RFI due to the cyclical nature of RFI. Historically, RFI has averaged roughly 5% of GDP while housing services have averaged between 12% and 13%, for a combined 17% to 18% of GDP. These shares tend to vary over the business cycle. However, the housing share of GDP lagged during the post-Great Recession period due to underbuilding, particularly for the single-family sector.
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2. Hardworking Sink
Designers often recommend giving extra consideration to elements that you interact with the most. In a kitchen, that can be a lot of things, but the kitchen sink is one area that always sees a lot of action. So it makes sense to put a little more effort into designing the sink area and choosing components.
These days, many sink manufacturers offer designs called workstations, which feature add-ons such as cutting boards, strainers and prep bowls. “I always recommend a sink with gadgets,” designer Brittany Steptoe-Wright of BSW Design says. “For example, the sink in this project [shown here] is a single, large undermount sink, but it has a colander, cutting board and drying rack that sit inside on a small lip and provide so much function. It’s a game changer.”
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On average, 40% of builders’ single-family home sales so far in 2024 have been made to first-time home buyers, according to the most recent NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index survey (HMI). That share has doubled since 2016, when only 19% of builders’ sales went to first-time buyers.
Our limited time-series on this topic in the HMI survey indicates that first-time home buyers purchased an increasing share of new homes between 2016 and 2021, when the proportion rose from 19% to 43%. Unfortunately, the series has a two-year hiatus (2019 and 2020) when no data are available.
Since 2021, however, growth in the new home first-time buyer share has stopped. After holding steady at 43% in 2022, the share has lost ground in each of the past two years, slipping to 42% in 2023 and then to 40% in 2024.
More granular analysis shows there is a direct correlation between the first-time buyer share and builder size. In other words, the larger the builder, the more likely it is for a higher share of its sales to go to people buying a home for the first time.
To be more precise, builders with 1 to 5 single-family starts a year reported that only about 18% of their sales so far in 2024 have gone to first-time buyers. That average increases to 21% among builders with 6 to 24 starts, to 34% among those with 25 to 99 starts, and reaches 44% among builders who start at least 100 homes a year.
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In 2023, 18.8 percent of all new single-family homes started were custom homes. This share decreased from the 20.4 percent recorded in 2022, according to data tabulated from the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction (SOC). The custom home market consists of contractor-built and owner-built homes—homes built one at a time for owner occupancy on the owner’s land, with either the owner or a builder acting as a general contractor. The alternatives are homes built-for-sale (on the builder’s land, often in subdivisions, with the intention of selling the house and land in one transaction) and homes built-for-rent.
In 2023, 71.5 percent of the single-family homes started were built-for-sale, and 9.7 percent were built-for-rent. At an 18.9 percent share, the number of custom homes started in 2023 was 177,850, falling from 207,472 in 2022.
The quarterly published statistics show that the custom home share of single-family starts showed gains in the second quarter of 2024 after some recent slowing. Although the quarterly statistics are timelier, they lack the geographic detail available in the annual data set.
When analyzed across the 9 census divisions, the annual data show that the highest custom home share in 2023 was 35.5 percent in the East South-Central division. While the lowest share was in the West South-Central division, where the share was only 11.9 percent. The share of custom homes across U.S. divisions are showed in the map below.
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Owners’ equity share of household real estate assets remained above 70% for the tenth straight quarter, continuing to mark the highest levels of this share since the late 1950s. The share in the second quarter of 2024 was 72.7%, up from a year ago when it stood at 71.4%. Notably, this is the highest reading of owners’ equity share since the fourth quarter of 1958, when it was 73.3%.
Household real estate assets represent all types of owner-occupied housing including farm houses and mobile homes, as well as second homes that are not rented, vacant homes for sale, and vacant land at current market value. Household real estate liabilities represent all outstanding residential mortgages as well as loans made under home equity lines of credit and home equity loans secured by junior liens. Owners’ equity is the difference between the current market value of the household’s property and the existing debt secured by the property (assets – liabilities).
The market value of household real estate assets rose from $46.4 trillion to $48.2 trillion in the second quarter of 2024 according to the most recent release of U.S. Federal Reserve Z.1 Financial Accounts. Over the year, household real estate assets were 7.7% higher in the second quarter following a 9.2% increase in the first quarter.
Household real estate secured liabilities, i.e. mortgages, home equity loans, and HELOCs, increased 0.8% over the second quarter to $13.1 trillion. This level is 2.6% higher than the second quarter of 2023, the same as the increase in the first quarter of 2.6%.
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The total market share of non-site built single-family homes (modular and panelized) was just 3% of single-family homes in 2023, according to completion data from the Census Bureau Survey of Construction data and NAHB analysis. This is a slight increase from the 2% share in 2022. This share has been steadily declining since the early-2000s despite the high-level of interest for non-site built construction. This low market share in fact runs counter to some media commentary on off-site construction suggesting recent gains. Nonetheless, there exists potential for market share gains in the years ahead due to the need to increase productivity in the residential construction sector.
In 2023, there were 27,000 total single-family units built using modular (12,000) and panelized/pre-cut (15,000) construction methods, out of a total of 999,000 single-family homes completed. It is worth noting that the Census definitions of off-site construction are relatively narrow. In a separate survey, the Home Innovation Research Labs Survey of U.S. Home Builders has a higher share for panelized construction (5-12%) due to a wider definition of “panelized” construction.
While the Census-measured market share is small, there exists potential for expansion. This 3% market share for 2023 represents a decline from years prior to the Great Recession. In 1998, 7% of single-family completions were modular (4%) or panelized (3%). This marked the largest share for the 1992-2023 period.
One notable regional concentration is found in the Northeast and Midwest. These two regions tie for the highest market share of homes built using non-site build construction methods. In the Northeast, 5% (4,000 homes) of the region’s 61,000 housing units were completed using non-site built construction methods. At the same time, in the Midwest, 5% market share (6,000 homes) of the region’s 126,000 housing units were completed using non-site build construction methods.
With respect to multifamily construction, approximately 7% of multifamily buildings (properties, not units) were built using modular and panelized methods, marking the highest level in the last two decades. This is significantly higher than the 2% share in 2022 and 1% share in 2018-2021. It is notable that modular construction methods accounted for 5% of this share, whereas in previous years it was only panelized construction methods that made up the small share of non-site build methods in multifamily construction. Prior to last year, the highest levels of modular and panelized methods share in multifamily construction was in 2000 and 2011, where 5% of multifamily buildings were constructed with modular (1%) or panelized construction methods (4%).
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NAHB’s featured topic for the second quarter HBGI reveals that 17.5% of single-family and 8.6% of multifamily construction takes place in second home areas. Recent NAHB analysis found that the total count of second homes across the US was 6.5 million, which accounts for 4.6% of the total housing stock. For this analysis, a second home area is a county that has a second home share greater than 10.3% of the county’s total housing stock (these counties fall within the 75th and above percentile of the second home stock share distribution). There are 788 counties that are considered a second home area based on this definition.
Single-family
Single-family permit data shows that the market share for construction in second home areas has grown by over four percentage points in the past nine years. The earliest data, which is the fourth quarter of 2015, shows that second home areas had a market share of 13.2%. As of the second quarter of 2024, the market share for this geography increased to 17.5%. However, this latest reading is down from a peak of 18.3% in the first quarter of 2023.
The peak growth rate in construction for second homes areas was at 38.5% in the third quarter of 2021. The first recorded decline in the growth rate occurred in the third quarter of 2022. This downward growth rate was followed by five quarters of declines until the first quarter of 2024. Second home areas have averaged a growth rate of 9.1% between the fourth quarter of 2015 and the second quarter of 2024, while non-second home areas averaged single-family a growth rate of 5.1% over the same period.
Multifamily
Although smaller, the market share for second home areas has also grown for multifamily construction. The market share was 5.5% in the fourth quarter of 2015 and is now 8.6%, a 3.1 percentage point increase. This increase in market share has been more volatile than single-family, as growth in construction has not been as consistent for multifamily in second home areas.
There have been three periods where construction growth for multifamily experienced declines in these areas, such as in 2017 and early 2021. The third period of decline is ongoing, as there have been two consecutive quarters where the growth rate has been negative to start 2024. The latest growth rate is a11.8% decline. This is down from a peak of 53.1% in the third quarter of 2022, as multifamily construction has slowed nationwide.
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“Using templates is one of the best time-saving techniques I’ve used in my various businesses over the years,” says contractor Travis Logan of Handyman Rescue Team in Seattle.
“I first started using templates, or scripts, in my early sales career after college,” he says. “By using proven sales scripts and rebuttals, I could quickly and easily replicate the success of those who came before me, since they were fine-tuned and honed over the years through actual customer interactions.
“Now, having templates ready to go eliminates the need to type out individual responses, since we have established wording and scripts for new-customer replies, existing-customer follow-ups and post-project review requests,” Logan says.
“This frees up time to spend on other critical administrative, operational or managerial tasks.”