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Sawmill and wood preservation firms reported lower capacity utilization rates coupled with level production and capacity throughout 2024. Despite no growth in production in 2024, utilization rates have trended downwards since 2017 as sawmills have expanded production capability. Even with more production capability, real output has not followed as output remains lower than 2018.

Capacity utilization rates are a ratio of actual production and potential production capabilities for firms. The utilization rate for sawmills and wood preservations firms was 64.7% in the fourth quarter on a four-quarter moving average basis. As utilization rates have shifted lower, the gap between full production capability and actual production has grown. Actual production is typically lower than full capability due to multiple factors ranging from insufficient materials and orders to lack of labor.

By combining the Federal Reserve’s production index and the Census Bureau’s utilization rate, we can compose a rough index estimate of what the current production capacity is for U.S. sawmills and wood preservation firms. Shown below is a quarterly estimate of the production capacity index. This capacity index measures the real output if all firms were operating at their full capacity.

Based on the data above, sawmill production capacity has increased from 2015 but remains lower than peak levels in 2011. Most of the recent capacity gains took place between 2023 and 2024, followed by little gain over the course of 2024. As evident above, there is ample room to increase production of domestic lumber, but current production levels remain much unchanged over the past several years.

Employment is an important factor for ensuring firms reach their full capacity. For sawmill and wood preservation firms, the number of employees declined to its lowest level since 2021, reporting an average of just over 89,000 employees across the industry in the fourth quarter. Employment declines, likely due to a weak lumber market in 2024, help explain why utilization rates have fallen. With fewer workers, it is less likely that a firm can increase production to its full capability.

Imports

Since U.S. firms do not produce at their full potential, imports help to supplement domestic supply, especially in the softwood lumber market. According to Census international trade data, existing tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber have not reduced the need for imports to meet domestic consumption but have made the U.S. more reliant on non-North American lumber, resulting in unnecessarily complex supply chains. The current AD/CVD Canadian softwood lumber tariff rate stands at 14.5% and is expected to double under the administrative review process by the Department of Commerce. Potential tariffs on lumber, such as the ongoing 232 investigation and 25% on all Canadian goods, could push tariffs rates on Canadian softwood lumber above 50% later this year. Higher tariffs on softwood lumber mean higher costs for builders who use lumber as a key input to construction. Given the current housing unaffordability crisis, any additional costs will continue push homeownership and affordable housing further out of reach for households in the U.S.

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The production index for sawmills and wood preservation industries rose marginally by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2024. After falling for the previous two quarters, this was the first rise in real output since the third quarter of 2023 according to the G.17 data. The index was 2.2% lower than one year ago, the largest year-over-year decline since falling 4.7% in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Quarterly Survey of Sawmills Capacity Utilization

To provide a better understanding of the sawmill and wood preservation industries, the Census Bureau’s Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity Utilization is another source of interest. This data comes from quarterly surveys of U.S. domestic manufacturing plants and includes a subindustry grouping of sawmills and wood preservation firms. The survey estimates utilization rates based on full production capability, meaning the utilizations rates are found by taking the market value of actual production during the quarter and dividing by an estimated market value of what the firm could have produced at full production capacity. In other words, the rate indicates how much production capacity is used to produce current output.

The sawmill and wood preservation industry full utilization rates jumped significantly over the quarter, up from 61.9% to 70.7%. Given this rise, it is surprising that production did not also increase significantly. Average plant hours per week in operation did rise for these firms, up from 47.9 hours in the first quarter to 57.7 hours in the second quarter.  

Employment

Employment at sawmill and wood preservation firms rose for the first time in six quarters, up to approximately 89,400 employees in the second quarter.  The Great Recession had a substantial impact on this industry, as employment fell from 105,630 in the first quarter of 2008 to a series low of 80,470 in the fourth quarter of 2009. Employment rose from this low to 91,000 in 2014 and has remained around this level for the last ten years.  

Capacity Index Estimate

By combining the production index and utilization rate, we can compose a rough index estimate of what the current production capacity is for U.S. sawmills and wood preservation firms. Shown below is a quarterly estimate of the production capacity index. This capacity index measures the real output if all firms were operating at their full capacity.

Due to the volatility of the data, we compute a moving average of the utilization rate, production index and capacity index. These are four-quarter moving averages, which are shown below to provide a clearer picture of the industry.

Based on the data above, sawmill production capacity has increased from 2015 but remains lower than peak levels in 2011. Production by sawmills continues to be higher mainly because the mills are running at higher than historical levels of utilization, as shown in red above. Much of the addition in capacity has been recent, as utilization rates have fallen but production continues to run at higher levels. Despite the U.S. being largest producer of softwood lumber in North America, the current capacity and production levels do not meet the demand of U.S. consumers.

According to Census international trade data, imports remain critical to meeting U.S. demand for softwood lumber. In the month of September alone, imports of softwood lumber stood at 1.1 billion board feet. Canada was the primary country of origin, exporting 987 million board feet into the U.S. in September. The current Antidumping/Countervailing duty rate on these imports from Canada averages 14.5%. U.S. producers claim that Canadian softwood lumber production is subsidized by Canadian provincial governments, which allows Canadian producers to sell lumber at lower than normal market prices. The data indicates that since the expiration of the softwood lumber agreement in 2016, tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber have substantially benefited the U.S. lumber industry, allowing for expanded production capacity.

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This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

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