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Existing Home Sales Slow in January

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After three months of increases, existing home sales retreated in January from the 10-month high last month, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Sales continued to be suppressed by higher mortgage rates, which remained above 6.5% despite the Fed cutting rates by 100 basis points last year. The persistent high mortgage rates largely reflect policy uncertainty and concerns about future economic growth.

While existing home inventory improves and the Fed continues lowering rates, the market faces headwinds as mortgage rates are expected to stay above 6% for longer due to an anticipated slower easing pace in 2025. The prolonged rates may continue to discourage homeowners from trading existing mortgages for new ones with higher rates, keeping supply tight and prices elevated. As such, sales are likely to remain limited in the coming months due to elevated mortgage rates and home prices.

Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, fell 4.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.08 million in January. On a year-over-year basis, sales were 2.0% higher than a year ago. This marks the fourth consecutive month of annual increases.

The first-time buyer share was 28% in January, down from 31% in December but unchanged from January 2024.

The existing home inventory level rose from 1.14 million in December to 1.18 million units in January and is up 16.8% from a year ago. At the current sales rate, January unsold inventory sits at a 3.5-months’ supply, up from 3.2-months last month and 3.0-months a year ago. This inventory level remains low compared to balanced market conditions (4.5 to 6 months’ supply) and illustrates the long-run need for more home construction.

Homes stayed on the market for an average of 41 days in January, up from 35 days in December and 36 days in January 2024.

The January all-cash sales share was 29% of transactions, up from 28% in December 2024 but down from 32% in January 2024. All-cash buyers are less affected by changes in interest rates.

The January median sales price of all existing homes was $396,900, up 4.8% from last year. This marked the 19th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. The median condominium/co-op price in December was up 2.9% from a year ago at $349,500. This rate of price growth will slow as inventory increases.

Geographically, three of the four regions saw a decline in existing home sales in January, ranging from 5.7% in the Northeast to 7.4% in the West. Sales in the Midwest remained unchanged. On a year-over-year basis, sales grew in three regions, ranging from 1.4% in the West to 5.3% in the Midwest. Sales were unchanged in the South from a year ago.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI fell from 78.5 to 74.2 in December due to elevated mortgage rates. This marks the first decline since August 2024. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales were 5.0% lower than a year ago, per National Association of Realtors data.

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Limited Existing Inventory Provides a Boost for New Home Sales

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A limited amount of existing inventory along with solid demand helped new home sales end the year on an up note, even as buyers continue to grapple with housing affordability challenges.

Sales of newly built, single-family homes in December increased 3.6% to a 698,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from an upwardly revised November number, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales in December was up 6.7% compared to a year earlier.

New home sales ended 2024 2.5% higher over the 2023 total. NAHB is forecasting a slight gain for sales in 2025 given ongoing solid macroeconomic conditions, particularly for the labor market. Furthermore, builders are cautiously optimistic about the building market given a post-election policy reset that seeks to eliminate unnecessary regulations

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed, or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the December reading of 698,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

New single-family home inventory in December continued to rise to a level of 494,000, up 10% compared to a year earlier. This represents an 8.5 months’ supply at the current building pace.

Completed ready-to-occupy inventory is up 46% to a level of 118,000, compared to a year ago.

NAHB estimates the combined new and existing total months’ supply (8.5 months’ supply for new homes while the much larger resale market was at 3.1) fell to just a 4 months’ supply in December, the lowest since April 2024. The market has not been near a 6 months’ supply, which represents a balanced market, since 2012.

The median new home sale price in December was $427,000, up 2.1% from a year ago.

Regionally, on a year-to-year basis for 2024 totals, new home sales were strongest in the Midwest, up 19% in 2024. Sales also rose 1.7% in the Northeast and 2.6% in the West but declined 0.2% in the South.

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Existing Home Sales at Nearly 30-Year Low Despite December Gains

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Despite higher mortgage rates and elevated home prices, existing home sales jumped to a 10-month high in December, marking three monthly gains in annual growth, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). However, existing home sales end 2024 at 4.06 million, the lowest level since 1995 as the median price reached a record high of $407,500 in 2024. 

While inventory improves and the Fed continues lowering rates, the market faces headwinds as mortgage rates are expected to stay above 6% for longer due to an anticipated slower easing pace in 2025. The prolonged rates may continue to discourage homeowners from trading existing mortgages for new ones with higher rates, keeping supply tight and prices elevated. As such, sales are likely to remain limited in the coming months due to elevated mortgage rates and home prices.

Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, rose 2.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.24 million in December, the highest level since February 2024. On a year-over-year basis, sales were 9.3% higher than a year ago, the largest annual gain since June 2021. However, total sales in 2024 fell to 4.06 million, breaking below 2023’s record low of 4.10 million and marking the lowest annual level since 1995.

The first-time buyer share rose to 31% in December, up from 30% in November and 29% in December 2023.

The existing home inventory level fell from 1.33 million in November to 1.15 million units in December but is up 16.2% from a year ago. At the current sales rate, December unsold inventory sits at a 3.3-months’ supply, down from 3.8-months last month but up from 3.1-months a year ago. This inventory level remains low compared to balanced market conditions (4.5 to 6 months’ supply) and illustrates the long-run need for more home construction.

Homes stayed on the market for an average of 35 days in December, up from 32 days in November and 29 days in December 2023.

The December all-cash sales share was 28% of transactions, up from 25% in November 2024 but down from 29% in December 2023. All-cash buyers are less affected by changes in interest rates.

The December median sales price of all existing homes was $404,400, up 6.0% from last year. This marked the 18th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. The median condominium/co-op price in December was up 4.5% from a year ago at $359,000. This rate of price growth will slow as inventory increases.

Geographically, three of the four regions saw an increase in existing home sales in December, ranging from 2.6% in the West to 3.9% in the Northeast. Sales in the Midwest fell 1%. On a year-over-year basis, sales grew in all four regions, ranging from 6.5% in the Midwest to 12.9% in the West.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI rose from 77.3 to 79.0 in November due to improved inventory. This marks the highest level since February 2023. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales were 6.9% higher than a year ago per National Association of Realtors data.

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New Home Sales Rose in November

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In November 2024, the U.S. housing market experienced a significant boost, with sales of new single-family homes reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. This marks a 5.9% increase from October’s revised figures and an 8.7% rise compared to November 2023. November new home sales are up 2.4% on a year-to-date basis.

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed, or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the November reading of 664,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

New single-family home inventory in November remained elevated at a level of 490,000, up 8.9% compared to a year earlier. This represents an 8.9 months’ supply at the current building pace. A measure near a six months’ supply is considered balanced.

While an 8.9 months’ supply may be considered elevated in normal market conditions, there is currently only a 3.8 months’ supply of existing single-family homes on the market. Combined, new and existing total months’ supply remains below historic norms at approximately 4.5 months, although this measure is expected to increase as more home sellers test the market in the months ahead.

A year ago, there were 79,000 completed, ready-to-occupy homes available for sale (not seasonally adjusted). By the end of November 2024, that number increased 57% to 124,000. However, completed, ready-to-occupy inventory remains just 25% of total inventory, while homes under construction account for 54% of the inventory. The remaining 21% of new homes sold in November were homes that had not started construction when the sales contract was signed.

The median new home sale price in November edged down 5.4% to $402,600 and is down 6.3% from a year ago. In terms of affordability, the share of entry-level homes priced below $300,000 has been steadily falling in recent years. Only 25% of the homes were priced in this entry-level affordable range, while 31% of the homes were priced above $500,000. Most of the homes were priced between $300,000-$500,000.

Regionally, on a year-over-year basis, new home sales are up 13.6% in the South and 10.0% in the Midwest. New home sales are down 1.4% in the West and 11.5% in the Northeast.

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Existing Home Sales Increase in November

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Despite higher mortgage rates and elevated home prices, existing home sales jumped to an 8-month high in November, marking the second month of annual increase in more than three years, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

While inventory improves and the Fed continues lowering rates, the market faces headwinds as mortgage rates are expected to stay above 6% for longer due to an anticipated slower easing pace in 2025. The prolonged rates may continue to discourage homeowners from trading existing mortgages for new ones with higher rates, keeping supply tight and prices elevated. However, as mortgage rates continue trending lower, the gradual improvement in inventory should help slow home price growth and enhance affordability. As such, the recent gains for existing home sales may give way in the coming months of data.

Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, rose 4.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in November, the highest level since March 2024. On a year-over-year basis, sales were 6.1% higher than a year ago, the largest annual gain since June 2021.

The first-time buyer share rose to 30% in November, up from 27% in October but down from 31% in November 2023.

The existing home inventory level fell from 1.37 million in October to 1.33 million units in November but is up 17.7% from a year ago. At the current sales rate, November unsold inventory sits at a 3.8-months supply, down from 4.2-months last month but up 3.5-months a year ago. This inventory level remains low compared to balanced market conditions (4.5 to 6 months’ supply) and illustrates the long-run need for more home construction.

Homes stayed on the market for an average of 32 days in November, up from 29 days in October and 25 days in November 2023.

The November all-cash sales share was 25% of transactions, down from 27% experienced in both October 2024 and November 2023. All-cash buyers are less affected by changes in interest rates.

The November median sales price of all existing homes was $406,100, up 4.7% from last year. This marked the 17th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. The median condominium/co-op price in November was up 2.8% from a year ago at $359,800. This rate of price growth will slow as inventory increases.

Geographically, three of four regions saw an increase in existing home sales in November, ranging from 5.3% in the Midwest to 8.5% in the Northeast. Sales in the West stayed unchanged in November. On a year-over-year basis, sales grew in all four regions, ranging from 3.3% in the South to 14.9% in the West.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI rose from 75.9 to 77.4 in October due to improved inventory. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales were 5.4% higher than a year ago per National Association of Realtors data.

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October New Home Sales Down on Higher Rates

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Steadily rising mortgage rates coupled with ongoing affordability challenges kept many potential home buyers on the sidelines in October. Sales of newly built, single-family homes in October declined 17.3% to a 610,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales in October is down 9.4% compared to a year earlier. October new home sales are up 2.1% on a year-to-date basis.

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed, or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the October reading of 610,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

New single-family home inventory in October remained elevated at a level of 481,000, up 8.8% compared to a year earlier. This represents a 9.5 months’ supply at the current sales pace. A measure near a six months’ supply is considered balanced.

While a 9.5 months’ supply may be considered elevated in normal market conditions, there is currently only a 4.2 months’ supply of existing single-family homes on the market. Combined, new and existing total months’ supply remains below historic norms at approximately 4.9 months, although this measure is expected to increase as more home sellers test the market in the months ahead.

A year ago, there were 76,000 completed, ready-to-occupy homes available for sale (not seasonally adjusted). By the end of October 2024, that number increased 52.6% to 116,000. However, completed, ready-to-occupy inventory remains just 24% of total inventory, while homes under construction account for 55% of the inventory. The remaining 22% of new homes sold in October were homes that had not started construction when the sales contract was signed.

The median new home sale price in October edged up 2.5% to $437,300 and is up 4.7% from a year ago. In terms of affordability, the share of entry-level homes priced below $300,000 has been steadily falling in recent years. Only 13% of the homes were priced in this entry-level affordable range, while 37% of the homes were priced above $500,000. Most of the homes were priced between $300,000-$500,000.

Regionally, on a year-over-year basis, new home sales are up 35.3% in the Northeast and 15.9% in the Midwest. New home sales are down 19.7% in the South and 1.3% in the West.

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Existing Home Sales Rebound in October

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Existing home sales in October rebounded from a 14-year low and posted the first annual increase in more than three years, as buyers took advantage when mortgage rates briefly reached a 2-year low in late September, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). While elevated home prices persist due to the lock-in effect, we expect sales activity to increase as mortgage rates moderate with additional Fed easing. Improving inventory should help slow home price growth and enhance affordability.

Homeowners with lower mortgage rates have opted to stay put, avoiding trading existing mortgages for new ones with higher rates. This trend is driving home prices higher and holding back inventory. With the Federal Reserve beginning its easing cycle at the September meeting, mortgage rates are expected to gradually decrease, leading to increased demand and unlocking lock-in inventory in the coming quarters. Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, rose 3.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million in October. On a year-over-year basis, sales were 2.9% higher than a year ago, ending a 38-month streak of year-over-year declines since July 2021.

The first-time buyer share rose to 27% in October, up from 26% in September but down from 28% in October 2023.

The existing home inventory level rose from 1.36 million in September to 1.37 million units in October and is up 19.1% from a year ago. At the current sales rate, September unsold inventory sits at a 4.2-months supply, down from 4.3-months last month but up 3.6-months a year ago. This inventory level remains low compared to balanced market conditions (4.5 to 6 months’ supply) and illustrates the long-run need for more home construction.

Homes stayed on the market for an average of 29 days in October, up from 28 days in September and 23 days in October 2023.

The October all-cash sales share was 27% of transactions, down from 30% in September and 29% a year ago. All-cash buyers are less affected by changes in interest rates.

The October median sales price of all existing homes was $407,200, up 4.0% from last year. This marked the 16th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. The median condominium/co-op price in October was up 1.6% from a year ago at $360,300. This rate of price growth will slow as inventory increases.

Geographically, all four regions saw an increase in existing home sales in October, ranging from 1.3% in the West to 6.7% in the Midwest. On a year-over-year basis, sales rose 1.1%, 2.3%, and 8.5% in the Midwest, South and West. Sales in the Northeast stayed unchanged.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI rose from 70.6 to 75.8 in September due to improved inventory and lower mortgage rates in late summer. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales were 2.6% higher than a year ago per National Association of Realtors data.

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All-Cash Sales and Prices Decline in the Third Quarter

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 All-cash purchases accounted for 7.9% of new home sales in the third quarter of 2024, marking the highest level this year but lowest level for the third quarter since 2022, according to NAHB analysis of the latest Census Quarterly Sales by Price and Financing report. Among mortgaged home sales, FHA-backed and VA-backed sales fell while conventional sales increased. This is in line with the overall trend observed in mortgage activity, as mortgage demand grew with moderating rates during this period. Despite the decline in total sales, the median purchase price of new homes (across all financing types) continued to increase in the third quarter.

Since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in early 2022, the share of all-cash new home sales has increased significantly, with an average of 8.7% amid this tightening cycle. The interest rate hikes have caused the average mortgage rate to more than double, surging from 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2021 to 7.0% by the end of second quarter of 2024. The chart below illustrates how much more sensitive the all-cash share has become to changes in the federal funds rate since 2017. However, after peaking at 10.7% in the fourth quarter of 2022, the all-cash share has recently trended lower.

Although cash sales make up a relatively small portion of new home sales, they constitute a larger share of existing home sales. This share also increased significantly since the Fed began raising interest rates in early 2022. According to estimates from the National Association of Realtors, 30% of existing home transactions were all-cash sales in September 2024, up from 26% in August and 29% a year ago.

The share of FHA-backed sales fell from 13.0% to 11.9% in the third quarter of 2024, reaching the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2022. This share remains below the post-Great Recession average of 17.0%. Meanwhile, the share of VA-backed sales also decreased, falling from 5.4% to 5.1%. Among declines in other types of new home financing, the share of conventional loans financed sales saw an increase in the third quarter of 2024, climbing from 73.9% to 75.1%, the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2022.

Price by Type of Financing

Different sources of financing also serve distinct market segments, which is revealed in part by the median new home price associated with each. In the third quarter, the national median sales price of a new home was $420,400. Split by types of financing, the median prices of new homes financed with conventional loans, FHA loans, VA loans, and cash were $466,100, $352,100, $404,000, and $401,600, respectively.

The purchase price of new homes financed with conventional and cash declined over the past year, while the price of homes financed with FHA loans and VA loans increased. The largest decline occurred in cash sales prices, which fell 21.1% over the year. This is in stark contrast to year-over-year price changes in the third quarter of 2022 and 2023, when median sales price rose 16.9% and 18.2% (see below).

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New Home Sales Improve in September

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Home buyers moved off the sidelines in September following the Federal Reserve’s recent move to cut interest rates for the first time in four years. 

Sales of newly built, single-family homes in September increased 4.1% to a 738,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from a downwardly revised August number, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales in September is up 6.3% compared to a year earlier.

Despite challenging affordability conditions, home builder confidence edged higher in October as they anticipate that mortgage rates will gradually, in an uneven manner, moderate in the coming months. There is a significant need for additional housing supply, as many prospective home buyers are entering the market.

Following the Fed’s actions in September, mortgage rates fell to 6.18%, from 6.5% in August. However, new home sales will likely weaken in October due to a recent rise in long-term rates.

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed, or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the September reading of 738,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

New single-family home inventory in September remained elevated at a level of 470,000, up 8.0% compared to a year earlier. This represents a 7.6 months’ supply at the current building pace. Completed for-sale new homes rose to 108,000, the highest level since 2009.

The median new home sale price in September was $426,300, essentially unchanged from a year ago. The Census data reveals a gain for new home sales priced below $300,000, which made up 17% of new home sales in September, compared to 14% a year ago.

Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are up 19.2% in the Midwest, 1.1% in the South and 3.4% in the West. New home sales are down 1.1% in the Northeast.

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Existing Home Sales Fall to 14-Year Low in September

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Despite recent easing mortgage rates and improved inventory, existing home sales fell to a 14-year low in September as elevated home prices are causing potential buyers to hold out for lower rates, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Sales remained sluggish as the lock-in effect kept home prices elevated. However, we expect increased activity in the coming months as mortgage rates moderate with additional Fed easing. Improving inventory should help slow home price growth and enhance affordability.

Homeowners with lower mortgage rates have opted to stay put, avoiding trading existing mortgages for new ones with higher rates. This trend is driving home prices higher and holding back inventory. With the Federal Reserve beginning its easing cycle at the September meeting, mortgage rates are expected to gradually decrease, leading to increased demand and unlocking lock-in inventory in the coming quarters.

Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, fell 1.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million in September, the lowest level since October 2010. On a year-over-year basis, sales were 3.5% lower than a year ago.

The first-time buyer share remained at 26% in September, matching the lowest level since November 2021 and August 2024, but down from 27% in September 2023.

The existing home inventory level rose from 1.37 million in August to 1.39 million units in September and is up 23.0% from a year ago. At the current sales rate, September unsold inventory sits at a 4.3-months supply, up from 4.2-months last month and 3.4-months a year ago. This inventory level remains low compared to balanced market conditions (4.5 to 6 months’ supply) and illustrates the long-run need for more home construction. However, the count of single-family resale homes available for sale is up almost 22.2% on a year-over-year basis.

Homes stayed on the market for an average of 28 days in September, up from 26 days in August and 21 days in September 2023.

The September all-cash sales share was 30% of transactions, up from 26% in August and 29% a year ago. All-cash buyers are less affected by changes in interest rates.

The September median sales price of all existing homes was $404,500, up 3.0% from last year. This marked the 15th consecutive month of year-over-year increases and the highest level for the month of September. The median condominium/co-op price in September was up 2.2% from a year ago at $361,600. This rate of price growth will slow as inventory increases.

Existing home sales in September were mixed across the four major regions. In the Northeast, Midwest, and South, sales fell by 4.2%, 2.2%, and 1.7%, respectively, while sales in the Midwest rose by 4.1%. On a year-over-year basis, sales decreased in the Northeast (-6.1%), Midwest (-5.3%) and South (-5.5%). Sales in the West increased 5.6% from a year ago.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI rose from 70.2 to 70.6 in August due to lower mortgage rates. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales were 3.0% lower than a year ago per National Association of Realtors data.

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