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The percentage of new apartment units that were absorbed within three months after completion continued to trend downwards, according to the Census Bureau’s latest release of the Survey of Market Absorption of New Multifamily Units (SOMA). The survey covers new units in multifamily residential buildings with five or more units. The number of new multifamily units completed reached a new peak in the third quarter of 2024, its third straight quarter recording a record high number of completions.

Apartments

The percentage of apartments absorbed within three months has fallen significantly from its peak of 75% in the third quarter of 2021, as shown in the graph above. Currently, the rate stands at 50% which is coupled with an uptick in completions, as the SOMA estimates show a new high of completions at 143,600 units in the third quarter of 2024. This outpaces the level of completions a year ago, which stood at 84,830, by almost 70%. The level of multifamily units reaching completion has only continued to grow since the number of units under construction peaked at over one million in 2023.

Along with the three-month absorption rate and completions, SOMA reports absorption rates within six-months, nine-months, and 12-months of completion. Solely focusing on the 12-month absorption rate, it fell to its lowest level since the start of the pandemic, registering a rate of just 90%. This means that 10% of the 90,630 apartments completed in the fourth quarter of 2023 remain unoccupied. As completions have risen over the past year, the supply of available apartments has increased. Additionally, regional SOMA data points to the Northeast as a possible explanation for a lower 12-month absorption rate, as nearly 23% of the fourth quarter completions in 2023 remain unoccupied. This is well above any other region, with the Midwest at 7%, the South at 9% and the West at 5%.

Condominiums and Cooperative Units

The absorption rate for new condominiums and cooperative units fell to 63% for the quarter, down 1 percentage point from the previous quarter.

Total completions of new condominiums and cooperative units, according to the SOMA, fell over the quarter from 4,452 to 4,008. Quarterly completions of these units peaked in the second quarter of 2018, at 7,996 completions but have steadily fallen since.

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Builder sentiment edged higher to begin the year on hopes for an improved economic growth and regulatory environment. At the same time, builders expressed concerns over building material tariffs and costs and a larger government deficit that would put upward pressure on inflation and mortgage rates.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 47 in January, up one point from December, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

Builders are facing continued challenges for housing demand in the near-term, with mortgage rates up from near 6.1% in late September to above 6.9% today. Land is expensive and financing for private builders remains costly. However, there is hope that policymakers are taking the impact of regulatory hurdles seriously and will make improvements in 2025.

NAHB is forecasting a slight gain for single-family housing starts in 2025, as the market faces offsetting upside and downside risks from an improving regulatory outlook and ongoing elevated interest rates,. And while ongoing, but slower, easing from the Federal Reserve should help financing for private builders currently squeezed out of some local markets, builders report cancellations are climbing as a direct result of mortgage rates rising back up near 7%.

The latest HMI survey also revealed that 30% of builders cut home prices in January. This share has been stable between 30% and 33% since last July. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5% in January, the same rate as in December. The use of sales incentives was 61% in January. This share has remained between 60% and 64% since last June.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

The HMI index gauging current sales conditions rose three points to 51 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a two-point gain to 33. The component measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell six points to 60 because of the elevated interest rate environment. While this serves as a cautionary note, the future sales component is still the highest of the three sub-indices and well above the breakeven level of 50.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased five points to 60, the Midwest moved one point higher to 47, the South posted a one-point gain to 46 and the West fell one point to 40. The HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi.

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Mortgage rates climbed in November, driven by market volatility and a surge in Treasury yields following the recent elections. On the day after the election results, the 10-year Treasury yield spiked by 14 basis points (bps), setting the stage for further rate increases throughout the month.

According to Freddie Mac, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased 38 basis points from October, reaching 6.81%. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage saw an even steeper increase of 43 bps to land at 6.03%.

The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for mortgage rates, averaged 4.37% in November—38 bps higher than October’s average. This increase reflected heightened market uncertainty and persistent volatility. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve is set to meet on December 17-18 to evaluate the possibility of another rate cut. Since the federal funds rate influences interest rates, a rate cut could potentially ease long-term mortgage rates, but this decision will hinge on the latest employment and inflation data, and other macroeconomic factors that could have an upward pressure on inflation including larger government deficits and higher tariffs. NAHB forecasts additional declines to the federal funds rate into a range below 4%.

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The percentage of new apartment units that were absorbed within three months of completion rose from 50% to 55% in the second quarter of 2024, according to the Census Bureau’s latest release of the Survey of Market Absorption of New Multifamily Units (SOMA). The survey covers new units in multifamily residential buildings with five or more units. Meanwhile, the absorption rate within three months for condominiums and cooperative units fell over the quarter, from 80% to 66%.

Apartments

The percentage of apartments absorbed within three months has fallen significantly from its peak of 75% in the third quarter of 2021, as shown in the graph above. Currently, the rate stands at 55% which is coupled with an uptick in completions, as the SOMA estimates show a new high of completions at 118,600 units in the second quarter of 2024. This is well above the level of completions a year ago, which stood at 83,140. The pace of multifamily units being completed has picked up, as many units under construction over the past year are reaching the market. Since the first quarter of 2022, completions have been above 75,000 for nine consecutive quarters, as seen in the graph below.  The level of completions has also risen for the past three quarters.

Along with the three-month absorption rate and completions, SOMA reports absorption rates within six-months, nine-months, and 12-months of completion. The absorption rates for all time periods follow similar downward trends as the number of apartments completed has ticked upwards over the past two years. For apartments completed in the 1st quarter of 2024, the absorption rate within six months of completion was 75%, down from a peak of 88% in the third quarter of 2021 but up from 69% the previous quarter.

For the nine-month period, the absorption rate of apartments completed in the fourth quarter of 2023 fell to 83% down for the third consecutive quarter. This rate also peaked at 96% in the same quarter as the other periods, the third quarter of 2021.

Finally, apartment units completed in the third quarter of 2023 were 93% absorbed within a year following completion. The trend remains the same for the 12-month period as the other time periods, as it peaked in the third quarter of 2021 at 98%.

Condominiums and Cooperative Units

The absorption rate for new condominiums and cooperative units fell to 66% for the quarter. The previous quarter’s rate was significantly revised, up from 69% to 80%, which helps to explain the dramatic decline.

Total completions of new condominiums and cooperative units, according to the SOMA, rose over the quarter up from 2,829 to 4,366. Quarterly completions of these units peaked in the second quarter of 2018, at 7,996 completions but have steadily fallen since that peak.

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In 2023, 64.8% of all new single-family homes started were built within a community or homeowner’s association. This share increased from the 62.6% recorded in 2022, according to data tabulated from the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction (SOC). This marks the third highest share since the beginning of the series in 2009, after the high point of 67.1% in 2020 and 65.5% in 2021.  Prior to 2021, the share had been on a decade-long upward trend.  In absolute numbers, a total of 601,558 homes were started in community associations in 2023.

The Census Bureau defines community or homeowner’s associations as “formal legal entities created to maintain common areas of a development and to enforce private deed restrictions; these organizations are usually created when the development is built, and membership is mandatory.”

A recent NAHB study, What Home Buyers Really Want,  asked recent and prospective home buyers to rate the influence that 29 community features would have on their purchase decision.  For more than 65% of buyers, being near retail space and park areas, and having walking/jogging trails are the most influential community features. In contrast, only 39% feel the same way about a homeowner’s association.

When analyzed by the nine census divisions, the highest share of new homes started within a homeowner’s association was in the Mountain Division, where 81.9% of new homes were in such communities. In the Middle Atlantic Division, on the other hand, the share was only 28.6%. The share of new homes started within a community across U.S. divisions are shown in the map below.

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Analysis of the history of data from the American Community Survey (ACS) reveals dramatic shifts in the makeup of the construction labor force over the last two decades. While the overall count of workers in the industry now approaches the historic highs of the housing boom of 2005-2006, the share of tradesmen declined from 71% in 2005 to under 61% in 2022. At the same time, the share of computer, engineering, and science occupations doubled, and the share of management and business occupations increased 60%.

The results are noteworthy, particularly given a recent focus on relatively flat productivity growth in the construction sector. A growing count of engineering/tech workers would, on its face, suggest a boost to productivity. However, a decline for the share of workers associated with the trades could suggest declining productivity. Indeed, more workers in management and business occupations could be another impact of the rising regulatory burden associated with building. These findings and possible impacts deserve additional research attention given the need to supply more attainable housing to the market.

As of 2022, the construction labor force exceeds 11.7 million, just slightly below the housing boom peak of 12 million. Construction trades (such as carpenters, electricians, painters, plumbers, laborers, as well as first-line supervisors) account for 7.1 million workers in the industry, or 60.7%. In contrast, there were 8.5 million construction tradesmen during the peak employment of 2006. The disappearance of more than a million craftsmen helps explain the persistent labor shortages reported by the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index Survey.

Over the same period, the construction industry absorbed a rising number of white-collar workers. The management ranks expanded from 1.2 million to 1.9 million workers, and their share increased from 10% to 16%. Business and financial occupations grew at similar rates. The number of engineers, architects and other science occupations doubled; they now account for close to 2.7% of the industry workforce. In contrast, the share of computer, engineering and science occupations was just 1.3% in 2005.

Even though the prevalence of white-collar jobs in construction remains less common than in the US economy overall, their numbers and shares have been rising faster in construction since 2005. For example, while the share of computer, engineering, and science occupations doubled in construction, it increased only 40% in the overall US workforce. Similarly, whereas the management ranks increased 60% in construction, they grew at a slower rate for the US labor force and registered gains of 45% since 2005.

The rising presence of white-collar workers in construction undoubtedly reflects evolving production technologies, an enhanced regulatory environment and more stringent building codes. The changing makeup of the construction workforce also coincides with the declining rates of self-employment in the industry and may reflect a shift towards larger construction firms. Larger building enterprises are better equipped to invest into new technologies and absorb higher overhead costs.

The labor force statistics reported in the post are tabulated using the historic ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS). The ACS statistics are most comprehensive as they include payroll workers, as well as self-employed. As the common practice dictates, the labor force estimates count employed and those unemployed workers who look for jobs.

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