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NAHB estimates that $184 billion worth of goods were used in the construction of both new multifamily and single-family housing in 2023. Additionally, we estimate that $13 billon of those goods were imported from outside of the U.S. These figures lead to 7% of all goods used in new residential construction originating from a foreign nation. This data come from the BEA input-output accounts, which reveals important details of numerous industries across the U.S. detailing what products they produce, use and import in the economy. The latest tables are from 2017 and the data is adjusted to 2023 dollar value.

Import use varies significantly by type of building product. Shown above are the ten most import reliant products that are used in new residential construction. These products are defined by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).

The U.S Census Bureau reports data on international trade of goods by NAICS definitions. With this, we can locate which nations are responsible for importing products used in residential construction into the U.S. Using the commodities that are used in residential construction, a significant share comes from China, at 27%. Mexico was the second most important nation with around 11% followed by Canada at 8%. Shown below are the countries with the 10 highest shares along with the remaining 27% from countries outside the top 10.

Tariff Impact

During the election campaign, President Trump promised the enactment of a tariff plan ranging from 10%-20% on imported goods, with 60% tariffs on imports from China. A tariff is essentially a tax on an imported good, meaning the importer pays an additional tax for importing such an item from another country. For example, say a business in the United States needed to purchase a $100 worth of screws from China. With a 60% tariff, the business would then need to pay an additional $60 to the U.S. Government to receive the screws. The exporter in China would still receive the $100 from the business and not pay the added tariff costs. The tariff cost falls on the importer, who would absorb the higher costs through lower profit margins or raising their own prices for consumers.

Without additional detail for these tariff proposals, it is difficult to estimate the impact of these tariffs. Using our best estimate, a 10% tariff on all imports with a 60% tariff on imports directly from China would result in a $3.2 billion increase in the cost of imported building materials used in residential construction. By product, the largest increase in cost would be for household appliances, where 54% of imports come from China, this tariff adds $670 million for these imported products. Additionally, a 20% tariff coupled with 60% imports from China would result in $4.2 billion in added cost of imported residential building products.  

From Canada, the U.S. imports a significant amount of wood related products. In 2023, 70% of sawmill and wood product imports came from Canada. Many of these wood products from Canada are already subject to tariffs, with the current rate at 14.5%. Total imports of sawmill and wood products from Canada in 2023 was $5.8 billion. The highest valued import from Canada was nonferrous metals, totaling $17.6 billion in 2023.

Turning to Mexico, 71% of lime and gypsum products imported in 2023 originated from Mexico. While this share is particularly high, the total value of imports in 2023 of lime and gypsum was only $456 million. The highest valued import from Mexico at $28.6 billion in 2023 was computer equipment, where imports from Mexico made up 23% of total imports of computer equipment in 2023.

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The residential construction industry plays a crucial role in driving economic growth and local community development. It has a lasting impact on local communities by creating jobs, improving infrastructure, boosting local businesses, and enhancing property values.

The residential construction industry is more reliant on labor than capital in the United States. As of October 2024, about 3.4 million people work in the residential construction industry in the United States, with 957,000 builders and 2.4 million residential specialty trade contractors.

The NAHB analysis of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data provides an insight into employment and establishment concentration of the residential construction industry across metro areas (MSA).

Location quotients (LQ) are ratios that compare the concentration of the residential construction industry within a metro area to the concentration of the industry nationwide. LQs are used in this article to evaluate the employment and establishment concentration of the residential construction industry in local areas.  

Employment

The March 2024 QCEW data indicates that employment in the residential construction industry, while found throughout the country, was more highly concentrated in some metro areas than others.

Among 387 metro areas, employment LQs ranged from 0.02 to 3.99. Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL had the highest employment concentration of the residential construction industry with an LQ of 3.99. It was followed by Naples-Marco Island, FL (LQ: 3.47) and Bozeman, MT (LQ: 3.12).

Florida, experiencing a rapid growth in population, reported a relatively high employment concentration in residential construction. All metro areas in Florida had a higher employment concentration than the nation’s concentration. Moreover, half of the top ten metro areas with the highest employment concentrations of the residential construction industry were in Florida.

Various metro areas in the Mountain Division also have a high reliance on the residential construction industry for employment. Bozeman, MT (LQ: 3.12), St. George, UT (LQ: 3.03), Coeur d’Alene, ID (LQ: 2.51), and Provo-Orem-Lehi, UT (LQ: 2.35) were ranked in the top ten markets with a higher employment concentration of the residential construction industry.

Metro areas in the South reported the three lowest employment LQs of the residential construction industry. The lowest was Owensboro, KY with a LQ of 0.02, followed by Dalton, GA (LQ: 0.03) and Eagle Pass, TX (LQ: 0.05).

Establishment

On aggregate, New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ, Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA, and Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL were the three metro areas that not only had the most employment in residential construction but also had the largest number of residential construction establishments among all metro areas. However, these three metro areas didn’t have higher establishment concentrations of the residential construction industry than the nation.

Among all the 387 metro areas, 104 of them had a higher establishment concentration of the residential construction industry than the nation. St. George, UT had the highest establishment concentration of the residential construction industry, which was more than three times that of the nation, followed by Barnstable Town, MA (LS: 2.42) and Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL (LQ: 2.38).

The three metro areas in the South that reported the lowest employment LQs of the residential construction industry also had the lowest establishment LQs of the residential construction industry.

For more information on QCEW, please check the “Handbook of Methods” published by BLS.

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Residential construction has remained in low density suburbs and outlying areas, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ latest release of the Home Building Geography Index (HBGI). This trend is driven by persistent factors that continue to affect housing affordability including a limited supply of buildable lots, rising construction costs, and a shortage of skilled labor. By focusing on low-density areas, developers aim to lower some of the high costs associated with building in high density areas.

Single-family

All HBGI-tracked geographies continued to post growth in the third quarter as single-family starts are poised to be higher than last year. The HBGI is constructed using permit data, which has continued to post higher volumes than last year despite residential construction dealing with persistent structural issues.

Among the HBGI geographies, the highest growth in the third quarter of 2024 was registered in small metro core counties, which increased 16.3% on a year-over-year four quarter moving average basis. The market with the lowest level of growth was micro counties which were up 6.5% on a year-over-year four quarter moving average.

In addition to the main HBGI geographies, new analysis shows that counties with the highest population density have lost market share with respect to single-family construction. For this analysis, we define high-density areas to be counties in the top 10% with respect to population density. Approximately half of the total U.S. population lives in such counties.

These high-density counties previously constituted just under 40% of single-family construction in the first quarter of 2018 on a four-quarter moving average basis but since then the market share for these areas has fallen to 36% . This trend predates the COVID pandemic, as the market share for high-density counties had fallen from 39.7% in the first quarter of 2018 to 37.7% in first quarter of 2020, a 2-percentage point decline. During the pandemic, this market share fell to 35.4%, another 2.3 percentage point decline. Since the first quarter of 2022, single-family construction in high-density areas has remained at a constant market share, varying only a few percentage points.

Multifamily

In the multifamily sector, the HBGI year-over-year growth posted declines in the third quarter for all but one geography. The measure for small metro outlying counties was up 2.3% on a year-over-year four quarter moving average basis in the third quarter, as more than 9,000 permits were authorized in the third quarter, the highest reading for this geography type in the available data. Due to over 800,000 multifamily units currently under construction and higher interest rates, multifamily construction remains subdued from last year. Large metro suburban counties saw the largest decline in the third quarter of 19.3% year-over-year four quarter moving average basis.

High-density areas continue to make up a majority of the multifamily market. However, the market share has fallen from 67.4% in the first quarter of 2018 and to now 63.2%. This share fell significantly during the pandemic, dropping 3.8 percentage points over a two-year period. This is a notable shift for apartment construction to lower density areas.

The third quarter of 2024 HBGI data along with an interactive HBGI map can be found at http://nahb.org/hbgi.

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Private residential construction spending increased by 1.5% in October, according to the latest U.S. Census Construction Spending data. Year-over-year, the October report showed a 6.4% increase.

The monthly increase in total private construction spending was primarily driven by higher spending on residential improvements. Improvement spending surged by 2.7% in October and was 18.5% higher compared to the same period last year.

Spending on single-family construction inched up by 0.8% for the month. This marks a continuation of growth after a five-month decline from April to August, aligning with the rising builder confidence. Compared to a year ago, spending on single-family construction was 1.3% higher.

Meanwhile, multifamily construction spending ended its streak of ten consecutive monthly declines, edging up by 0.2% in October. Despite this slightly monthly gain, multifamily construction spending remained 6.8% lower compared to a year ago.

The NAHB construction spending index is shown in the graph below. The index illustrates how   spending on single-family construction has slowed since early 2024 under the pressure of elevated interest rates. Multifamily construction spending growth has also slowed down after the peak in July 2023. Meanwhile, improvement spending has increased its pace since late 2023.

Spending on private nonresidential construction was up 3.5% over a year ago. The annual private nonresidential spending increase was mainly due to higher spending for the class of manufacturing ($32.9 billion), followed by the power category ($6.4 billion).

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Lending standards were essentially unchanged for all residential mortgage categories in the third quarter of 2024, except for Subprime loans, according to the Federal Reserve Board’s October 2024 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS).  Demand for most residential mortgage loans remained weaker across all categories in the quarter.  Lending conditions for commercial real estate (CRE) loans were moderately tight, amid modestly weak demand as well.  However, NAHB believes that financial conditions for the home building industry should improve next year as the Federal Reserve continues along their current rate cutting cycle.

Residential Mortgages

GSE-eligible and Qualified Mortgage (QM) non-jumbo non-GSE eligible mortgages recorded a neutral net easing index value (i.e., 0) while the other five residential mortgage loan types (Subprime, Non-QM jumbo, QM jumbo, Non-QM non-jumbo, Government) were negative for the third quarter of 2024, representing tightening conditions.

Besides GSE-eligible, which posted stronger demand (i.e., positive value) for the first time since Q2 2021, and QM non-jumbo non-GSE eligible (neutral demand), all other residential mortgage loan categories reported weaker demand in Q3 2024. Weakness is less widespread than in recent quarters, however. Among all residential mortgage loan categories, falling demand is best highlighted by Subprime loans which  experienced weaker demand for 17 consecutive quarters, or for over four years.

Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Loans

Banks reported moderately tightening lending conditions for both multifamily as well as all CRE construction & development loans in the third quarter of 2024.  However, the tightening was not as widespread as in recent quarters. Results show 10 consecutive quarters of tightening lending conditions for CRE loans.

For multifamily, the net percentage of banks reporting stronger demand was -8.2% while –14.8% for construction & development loans.  Although improving, weaker demand has continued for over two years for both CRE loan categories.

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Wages for residential building workers grew at a fast pace of 9.9% in September, following a 10.8% gain in August. These year-over-year growth rates in the past four months were unprecedented in the history of the data series since 1990. After a 0.3% increase in June 2023, the YOY growth rate for residential building worker wages has been trending higher over the past year.

The ongoing skilled labor shortage in the construction labor market and lingering inflation impacts account for the recent acceleration in wage growth. However, the demand for construction labor remained weaker than a year ago. As mentioned in the latest JOLTS blog, the number of open construction sector jobs fell from a revised 328,000 in August to a softer 288,000 in September. Nonetheless, the ongoing skilled labor shortage continues to challenge the construction sector.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report, average hourly earnings for residential building workers was $33.51 per hour in September 2024, increasing 9.9% from $30.5 per hour a year ago. This was 19.2% higher than the manufacturing’s average hourly earnings of $28.12 per hour, 14.7% higher than transportation and warehousing ($29.21 per hour), and 8.1% lower than mining and logging ($36.46 per hour).

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Private residential construction spending inched up 0.2% in September, according to the Census Construction Spending data. The September report shows a 4.1% rise compared to a year ago.  

The monthly increase in total private construction spending for September was largely due to more spending on single-family construction. Spending on single-family construction rose by 0.4% in September. This broke a five-month streak of declines, aligning with the modest gains in single-family starts during September. Compared to a year ago, spending on single-family construction was 0.9% higher.  

In contrast, multifamily construction spending continued to decline, edging down 0.1% in September after a dip of 0.3% in August. Year-over-year, spending on multifamily construction was down 8.1%, as there is an elevated level of apartments under construction being completed. Meanwhile, private residential improvement spending stayed flat for the month and was 13.5% higher than a year ago.  

The NAHB construction spending index is shown in the graph below. The index illustrates how spending on single-family construction has slowed since early 2024 under the pressure of elevated interest rates. Multifamily construction spending growth has also slowed down after the peak in July 2023. Meanwhile, improvement spending has increased its pace since late 2023. 

Spending on private nonresidential construction was up 3.5% over a year ago. The annual private nonresidential spending increase was mainly due to higher spending for the class of manufacturing ($39.4 billion), followed by the power category ($6.9 billion). 

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Nearly 1.3 million tax returns filed for tax year 2023 utilized the Residential Clean Energy Credit (25D tax credit), according to the latest IRS clean energy tax credit statistics. Through May 23rd of the 2024 tax filing season for 2023 returns, almost 138 million tax returns had been filed with the IRS, which indicates that 0.9% of returns filed utilized the 25D credit. Both 25C (Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit) and 25D are claimed on Form 5695, as both are residential energy tax credits. A previous blog discussed the 25C credit, while this one focuses on the 25D credit. The two credits main difference is that 25C relates to improvements that make homes more energy efficient, while 25D is focused on investments associated with renewable energy in the home. The 25D credit is an annual credit that taxpayers may claim for investing in renewable energy for their residence, such as solar, wind, geothermal, fuel cells or battery storage technology.

The 25D tax credit allows home owners to claim qualifying residential clean energy expenditures made to their primary or secondary residence. Renters can also claim the credit for certain residential clean energy expenditures made to their residence while landlords cannot. Additionally, 25D can be applied to newly constructed homes as well as existing homes. The 25D credit amount is based on 30% of the clean energy expenditure and, unlike 25C, has no credit limit with one exception— the credit for fuel cell property expenditures is 30% up to $500 for each half kilowatt of capacity for the qualified fuel cell property. The 30% credit amount will fall to 26% in 2033 and 22% in 2034. Taxpayers can also include installation costs in the calculation of their credit amount.  While the credit is non-refundable, taxpayers can carryforward the credit to reduce their tax liability in future years. Clean energy property must meet certain standards to qualify for the credit. For example, geothermal heat pumps must meet Energy Star requirements at the time of purchase.

Cost of Energy Property and Usage

The recent IRS data indicates that the most expensive clean energy investment claimed in tax year 2023 was the purchase and installation of qualified solar electric property at an average cost of $27,355. Shown below are the average cost and average credit (30% of cost) across each investment, while the average credit amount across all returns that claimed 25D is shown in green at $5,084. While not shown below, the average credit claimed in 2023 that was carryforward from a previous year was $7,019 and the average credit carryforward to next year was $7,464. Both carryforward credits were higher than the average credit amount claimed in 2023.

Solar electric property was also by far the most frequently claimed investment at 752,300 returns. The next highest claimed investment was qualified solar water heating property, with 139,130 returns. No other improvement appeared on over 100,000 returns. The qualified improvement that was least claimed on tax returns was fuel cell property, with only 35,850 returns. Fuel cell property is the only expenditure subject to a cap.

Income and Geographic Differences

The Residential Clean Energy Credit is not subject to income limitations, meaning any taxpayer regardless of income can claim the credit on their tax return. The income level that most frequently claimed the credit was between $500,000 and $1,000,000 at 1.99%. Given the average cost of each improvement, it comes as little surprise that lower incomes claim the credit less frequently.

Geographically, the highest claim rate of the 25D tax credit was in Nevada, with 2.0% of returns claiming the credit. Florida had the second highest claim rate at 1.8%. The lowest claim rate was in North Dakota, at just 0.2%. Of note, higher usage rates of the 25D tax credit are found in states in the southwest, with Nevada (2.0%), Arizona (1.6%), Texas (1.6%), California (1.6%), and New Mexico (1.5%) all ranking in the top ten. This may be due to their significantly higher exposure to the sun, leading to higher potential benefits from installing solar electric property.

New Hampshire had the highest average credit amount at $7,581. This was $500 more than the second highest state which was Hawaii at $7,055. The lowest average credit amount was in Mississippi, at $2,248.

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During the second quarter of 2024, the volume of total outstanding acquisition, development and construction (AD&C) loans posted the largest year-over-year percentage decline since 2012, as interest rates remain elevated before the beginning of the Fed cutting short-term interest rates in September. AD&C loan conditions will improve as the Fed progresses in its policy easing cycle.

The volume of 1-4 unit residential construction loans made by FDIC-insured institutions declined 3.5% during the second quarter. The outstanding stock of loans declined by $3.3 billion for the quarter. This loan volume retreat places the total stock of home building construction loans at $92 billion, off a post-Great Recession high set during the first quarter of 2023 ($105 billion). The decline in loan volume is holding back private builder home construction and acting as a limiting factor for home builder sentiment.

On a year-over-year basis, the stock of residential construction loans is down more than 10%, the largest year-over-year decline since 2012. This contraction for construction financing is a key reason home builder sentiment moved lower at the end of 2023, even as building activity accelerated, propelled by larger builder activity.

It is worth noting the FDIC data represent only the stock of loans, not changes in the underlying flows, so it is an imperfect data source. Lending remains much reduced from years past. The current amount of existing residential AD&C loans now stands 55% lower than the peak level of residential construction lending of $204 billion reached during the first quarter of 2008. Alternative sources of financing, including equity partners, have supplemented this capital market in recent years.

The FDIC data reveal that the total decline from peak lending for home building construction loans continues to exceed that of other AD&C loans (nonresidential, land development, and multifamily). Such forms of AD&C lending are off a smaller 7% from peak lending. For the second quarter, the outstanding stock of these loans was approximately unchanged.

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Private residential construction spending fell 0.3% in August, according to the Census Construction Spending data. Nevertheless, it remained 2.7% higher compared to a year ago.

The monthly decline in total private construction spending for August was largely due to reduced spending on single-family and multifamily construction. Spending on single-family construction fell by 1.5% in August. This marks the fifth consecutive monthly decrease. The rising new single-family home inventory and expectations for lower interest rates both weight on new home building. Despite these challenges, spending on single-family construction was still 0.8% higher than it was a year earlier.

Multifamily construction spending inched down 0.4% in August after a dip of 0.3% in July. Year-over-year, spending on multifamily construction declined 7.5%, as an elevated level of apartments under construction is being completed. Private residential improvement spending increased 1% in August and was 9.4% higher than a year ago.

The NAHB construction spending index is shown in the graph below (the base is January 2000). The index illustrates how spending on single-family construction has slowed since early 2024 under the pressure of elevated interest rates. Multifamily construction spending growth has also slowed down after the peak in July 2023. Meanwhile, improvement spending has increased its pace since late 2023.

Spending on private nonresidential construction was up 3.6% over a year ago. The annual private nonresidential spending increase was mainly due to higher spending for the class of manufacturing ($36.4 billion), followed by the power category ($8.8 billion).

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