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Prices for inputs to new residential construction—excluding capital investment, labor, and imports—were unchanged in December according to the most recent Producer Price Index (PPI) report published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This index grew 0.8% over 2024, the lowest yearly increase in the index since its inception in 2014.

The inputs to the new residential construction price index can be broken into two components—one for goods and another for services. The goods component increased 1.7% over the year, while services decreased 0.4%. For comparison, the total final demand index increased 3.3% in 2024, with final demand with respect to goods up 1.8% and final demand for services up 4.0% over the year.

Input Goods

The goods component has a larger importance to the total residential construction inputs price index, representing around 60%. The price of input goods to new residential construction was down 0.1% in December from November. The input goods to residential construction index can be further broken down into two separate components, one measuring energy inputs with the other measuring goods less energy inputs. The latter of these two components simply represents building materials used in residential construction, which makes up around 93% of the goods index.

The price of goods used in residential construction grew 1.7% in 2024, slightly higher than the growth in 2023 of 1.0%. This growth can be attributed to the rise in the prices of building materials, which grew 2.2% in 2024. The price of energy inputs fell for the second straight year, down 5.3% in 2024.

At the individual commodity level, the five commodities with the highest importance for building materials to the new residential construction index were as follows: ready-mix concrete, general millwork, paving mixtures/blocks, sheet metal products, and wood office furniture/store fixtures. Across these commodities, there was price growth for most commodities in 2024 except for sheet metal products. Ready-mix concrete was up 5.1%, wood office furniture/store fixtures up 4.3%, general millwork up 2.5%, paving mixtures/blocks up 2.3% while sheet metal products were down 0.2%. The commodity used in new residential construction the featured the highest price growth in 2024 was softwood lumber, not edge worked, which increased 14.7% in 2024. The commodity where prices declined the most was No. 2 diesel fuel, down 13.9%.

Input Services

Prices of inputs to residential construction for services were up 0.5% in December from November. The price index for service inputs to residential construction can be broken out into three separate components: a trade services component, a transportation and warehousing services component, and a services excluding trade, transportation and warehousing component. The most significant component is trade services (around 60%), followed by services less trade, transportation and warehousing (around 29%), and finally transportation and warehousing services (around 11%). The largest component, trade services, was down 1.8% in 2024 after growing 5.8% in 2023.  Across individual services, credit deposit services advanced the most in 2024, up 21.2% over the year while the prices for metal, mineral and ore wholesaling services fell the most, down 19.2%.

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The total volume of outstanding acquisition, development, and construction (AD&C) loans made by FDIC-insured institutions fell for the third consecutive quarter during the third quarter of 2024 to a volume of $490.7 billion, down from $495.8 billion in the second quarter. Interest rates remained higher over the third quarter, as the Fed issued its first rate cut at the end of the quarter in September. Future AD&C lending conditions are poised to improve as the Fed continues its easing cycle over the next year despite potential headwinds of higher Government deficits and economic uncertainty.

The volume of 1-4 family residential construction and land development loans totaled $90.8 billion in the third quarter, down 8.4% from one year ago. This year-over-year decline marked the fifth straight quarter where the total volume of outstanding loans declined compared to a year prior. All other real estate development loans totaled $399.9 billion in the third quarter, down $4.3 billion from the previous quarter.

It is worth noting, the FDIC data represent only the stock of loans, not changes in the underlying flows, so it is an imperfect data source. Lending remains much reduced from years past. The current amount of existing 1-4 family residential AD&C loans now stands 55% lower than the peak level of residential construction lending of $204 billion reached during the first quarter of 2008. Alternative sources of financing, including equity partners, have supplemented this capital market in recent years.

While the volume of 1-4 family residential AD&C loans fell during the third quarter, the volume of past due and nonaccrual residential AD&C loans rose above $1 billion for the first time since 2014. A majority of this outstanding total was made up of loans in nonaccrual status (typically a loan where the lender does not expect to receive payment) which totaled $505.9 million. The outstanding loan balance for those 30-89 days past due was $491.5 million and loans 90 days or more past due totaled $65.4 million. As a share of the total outstanding stock of 1-4 family residential AD&C loans ($90.8 billion), past due and nonaccrual loans ($1.0 billion) made up 1.2% of the outstanding stock of loans.

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Private residential construction spending edged up by 0.1% in November 2024, according to the latest U.S. Census Construction Spending data. Year-over-year, the November report showed a 3.1% increase.

The monthly increase in total private construction spending was primarily driven by higher spending on single-family construction and residential improvements. Single-family construction spending inched up by 0.3% for the month. This marks a continuation of growth after a five-month decline from April to August, aligning with steady builder confidence seen in the Housing Market Index. However, single-family construction remained 0.7% lower than a year ago. Improvement spending rose by 0.4% in November and was 13.4% higher compared to the same period last year. In contrast, multifamily construction spending declined by 1.3% in November, following a 0.3% increase in October. Compared to a year ago, multifamily construction spending was still 9.5% lower.

The NAHB construction spending index is shown in the graph below. The index illustrates how   spending on single-family construction has slowed since early 2024 under the pressure of elevated interest rates. Multifamily construction spending growth has also slowed down after the peak in July 2023. Meanwhile, improvement spending has increased its pace since late 2023.

Spending on private nonresidential construction was up 1.7% over a year ago. The annual private nonresidential spending increase was mainly due to higher spending for the class of manufacturing ($23.4 billion), followed by the power category ($6.1 billion).

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NAHB estimates that $184 billion worth of goods were used in the construction of both new multifamily and single-family housing in 2023. Additionally, we estimate that $13 billon of those goods were imported from outside of the U.S. These figures lead to 7% of all goods used in new residential construction originating from a foreign nation. This data come from the BEA input-output accounts, which reveals important details of numerous industries across the U.S. detailing what products they produce, use and import in the economy. The latest tables are from 2017 and the data is adjusted to 2023 dollar value.

Import use varies significantly by type of building product. Shown above are the ten most import reliant products that are used in new residential construction. These products are defined by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).

The U.S Census Bureau reports data on international trade of goods by NAICS definitions. With this, we can locate which nations are responsible for importing products used in residential construction into the U.S. Using the commodities that are used in residential construction, a significant share comes from China, at 27%. Mexico was the second most important nation with around 11% followed by Canada at 8%. Shown below are the countries with the 10 highest shares along with the remaining 27% from countries outside the top 10.

Tariff Impact

During the election campaign, President Trump promised the enactment of a tariff plan ranging from 10%-20% on imported goods, with 60% tariffs on imports from China. A tariff is essentially a tax on an imported good, meaning the importer pays an additional tax for importing such an item from another country. For example, say a business in the United States needed to purchase a $100 worth of screws from China. With a 60% tariff, the business would then need to pay an additional $60 to the U.S. Government to receive the screws. The exporter in China would still receive the $100 from the business and not pay the added tariff costs. The tariff cost falls on the importer, who would absorb the higher costs through lower profit margins or raising their own prices for consumers.

Without additional detail for these tariff proposals, it is difficult to estimate the impact of these tariffs. Using our best estimate, a 10% tariff on all imports with a 60% tariff on imports directly from China would result in a $3.2 billion increase in the cost of imported building materials used in residential construction. By product, the largest increase in cost would be for household appliances, where 54% of imports come from China, this tariff adds $670 million for these imported products. Additionally, a 20% tariff coupled with 60% imports from China would result in $4.2 billion in added cost of imported residential building products.  

From Canada, the U.S. imports a significant amount of wood related products. In 2023, 70% of sawmill and wood product imports came from Canada. Many of these wood products from Canada are already subject to tariffs, with the current rate at 14.5%. Total imports of sawmill and wood products from Canada in 2023 was $5.8 billion. The highest valued import from Canada was nonferrous metals, totaling $17.6 billion in 2023.

Turning to Mexico, 71% of lime and gypsum products imported in 2023 originated from Mexico. While this share is particularly high, the total value of imports in 2023 of lime and gypsum was only $456 million. The highest valued import from Mexico at $28.6 billion in 2023 was computer equipment, where imports from Mexico made up 23% of total imports of computer equipment in 2023.

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The residential construction industry plays a crucial role in driving economic growth and local community development. It has a lasting impact on local communities by creating jobs, improving infrastructure, boosting local businesses, and enhancing property values.

The residential construction industry is more reliant on labor than capital in the United States. As of October 2024, about 3.4 million people work in the residential construction industry in the United States, with 957,000 builders and 2.4 million residential specialty trade contractors.

The NAHB analysis of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data provides an insight into employment and establishment concentration of the residential construction industry across metro areas (MSA).

Location quotients (LQ) are ratios that compare the concentration of the residential construction industry within a metro area to the concentration of the industry nationwide. LQs are used in this article to evaluate the employment and establishment concentration of the residential construction industry in local areas.  

Employment

The March 2024 QCEW data indicates that employment in the residential construction industry, while found throughout the country, was more highly concentrated in some metro areas than others.

Among 387 metro areas, employment LQs ranged from 0.02 to 3.99. Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL had the highest employment concentration of the residential construction industry with an LQ of 3.99. It was followed by Naples-Marco Island, FL (LQ: 3.47) and Bozeman, MT (LQ: 3.12).

Florida, experiencing a rapid growth in population, reported a relatively high employment concentration in residential construction. All metro areas in Florida had a higher employment concentration than the nation’s concentration. Moreover, half of the top ten metro areas with the highest employment concentrations of the residential construction industry were in Florida.

Various metro areas in the Mountain Division also have a high reliance on the residential construction industry for employment. Bozeman, MT (LQ: 3.12), St. George, UT (LQ: 3.03), Coeur d’Alene, ID (LQ: 2.51), and Provo-Orem-Lehi, UT (LQ: 2.35) were ranked in the top ten markets with a higher employment concentration of the residential construction industry.

Metro areas in the South reported the three lowest employment LQs of the residential construction industry. The lowest was Owensboro, KY with a LQ of 0.02, followed by Dalton, GA (LQ: 0.03) and Eagle Pass, TX (LQ: 0.05).

Establishment

On aggregate, New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ, Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA, and Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL were the three metro areas that not only had the most employment in residential construction but also had the largest number of residential construction establishments among all metro areas. However, these three metro areas didn’t have higher establishment concentrations of the residential construction industry than the nation.

Among all the 387 metro areas, 104 of them had a higher establishment concentration of the residential construction industry than the nation. St. George, UT had the highest establishment concentration of the residential construction industry, which was more than three times that of the nation, followed by Barnstable Town, MA (LS: 2.42) and Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL (LQ: 2.38).

The three metro areas in the South that reported the lowest employment LQs of the residential construction industry also had the lowest establishment LQs of the residential construction industry.

For more information on QCEW, please check the “Handbook of Methods” published by BLS.

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Residential construction has remained in low density suburbs and outlying areas, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ latest release of the Home Building Geography Index (HBGI). This trend is driven by persistent factors that continue to affect housing affordability including a limited supply of buildable lots, rising construction costs, and a shortage of skilled labor. By focusing on low-density areas, developers aim to lower some of the high costs associated with building in high density areas.

Single-family

All HBGI-tracked geographies continued to post growth in the third quarter as single-family starts are poised to be higher than last year. The HBGI is constructed using permit data, which has continued to post higher volumes than last year despite residential construction dealing with persistent structural issues.

Among the HBGI geographies, the highest growth in the third quarter of 2024 was registered in small metro core counties, which increased 16.3% on a year-over-year four quarter moving average basis. The market with the lowest level of growth was micro counties which were up 6.5% on a year-over-year four quarter moving average.

In addition to the main HBGI geographies, new analysis shows that counties with the highest population density have lost market share with respect to single-family construction. For this analysis, we define high-density areas to be counties in the top 10% with respect to population density. Approximately half of the total U.S. population lives in such counties.

These high-density counties previously constituted just under 40% of single-family construction in the first quarter of 2018 on a four-quarter moving average basis but since then the market share for these areas has fallen to 36% . This trend predates the COVID pandemic, as the market share for high-density counties had fallen from 39.7% in the first quarter of 2018 to 37.7% in first quarter of 2020, a 2-percentage point decline. During the pandemic, this market share fell to 35.4%, another 2.3 percentage point decline. Since the first quarter of 2022, single-family construction in high-density areas has remained at a constant market share, varying only a few percentage points.

Multifamily

In the multifamily sector, the HBGI year-over-year growth posted declines in the third quarter for all but one geography. The measure for small metro outlying counties was up 2.3% on a year-over-year four quarter moving average basis in the third quarter, as more than 9,000 permits were authorized in the third quarter, the highest reading for this geography type in the available data. Due to over 800,000 multifamily units currently under construction and higher interest rates, multifamily construction remains subdued from last year. Large metro suburban counties saw the largest decline in the third quarter of 19.3% year-over-year four quarter moving average basis.

High-density areas continue to make up a majority of the multifamily market. However, the market share has fallen from 67.4% in the first quarter of 2018 and to now 63.2%. This share fell significantly during the pandemic, dropping 3.8 percentage points over a two-year period. This is a notable shift for apartment construction to lower density areas.

The third quarter of 2024 HBGI data along with an interactive HBGI map can be found at http://nahb.org/hbgi.

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Private residential construction spending increased by 1.5% in October, according to the latest U.S. Census Construction Spending data. Year-over-year, the October report showed a 6.4% increase.

The monthly increase in total private construction spending was primarily driven by higher spending on residential improvements. Improvement spending surged by 2.7% in October and was 18.5% higher compared to the same period last year.

Spending on single-family construction inched up by 0.8% for the month. This marks a continuation of growth after a five-month decline from April to August, aligning with the rising builder confidence. Compared to a year ago, spending on single-family construction was 1.3% higher.

Meanwhile, multifamily construction spending ended its streak of ten consecutive monthly declines, edging up by 0.2% in October. Despite this slightly monthly gain, multifamily construction spending remained 6.8% lower compared to a year ago.

The NAHB construction spending index is shown in the graph below. The index illustrates how   spending on single-family construction has slowed since early 2024 under the pressure of elevated interest rates. Multifamily construction spending growth has also slowed down after the peak in July 2023. Meanwhile, improvement spending has increased its pace since late 2023.

Spending on private nonresidential construction was up 3.5% over a year ago. The annual private nonresidential spending increase was mainly due to higher spending for the class of manufacturing ($32.9 billion), followed by the power category ($6.4 billion).

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Lending standards were essentially unchanged for all residential mortgage categories in the third quarter of 2024, except for Subprime loans, according to the Federal Reserve Board’s October 2024 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS).  Demand for most residential mortgage loans remained weaker across all categories in the quarter.  Lending conditions for commercial real estate (CRE) loans were moderately tight, amid modestly weak demand as well.  However, NAHB believes that financial conditions for the home building industry should improve next year as the Federal Reserve continues along their current rate cutting cycle.

Residential Mortgages

GSE-eligible and Qualified Mortgage (QM) non-jumbo non-GSE eligible mortgages recorded a neutral net easing index value (i.e., 0) while the other five residential mortgage loan types (Subprime, Non-QM jumbo, QM jumbo, Non-QM non-jumbo, Government) were negative for the third quarter of 2024, representing tightening conditions.

Besides GSE-eligible, which posted stronger demand (i.e., positive value) for the first time since Q2 2021, and QM non-jumbo non-GSE eligible (neutral demand), all other residential mortgage loan categories reported weaker demand in Q3 2024. Weakness is less widespread than in recent quarters, however. Among all residential mortgage loan categories, falling demand is best highlighted by Subprime loans which  experienced weaker demand for 17 consecutive quarters, or for over four years.

Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Loans

Banks reported moderately tightening lending conditions for both multifamily as well as all CRE construction & development loans in the third quarter of 2024.  However, the tightening was not as widespread as in recent quarters. Results show 10 consecutive quarters of tightening lending conditions for CRE loans.

For multifamily, the net percentage of banks reporting stronger demand was -8.2% while –14.8% for construction & development loans.  Although improving, weaker demand has continued for over two years for both CRE loan categories.

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Wages for residential building workers grew at a fast pace of 9.9% in September, following a 10.8% gain in August. These year-over-year growth rates in the past four months were unprecedented in the history of the data series since 1990. After a 0.3% increase in June 2023, the YOY growth rate for residential building worker wages has been trending higher over the past year.

The ongoing skilled labor shortage in the construction labor market and lingering inflation impacts account for the recent acceleration in wage growth. However, the demand for construction labor remained weaker than a year ago. As mentioned in the latest JOLTS blog, the number of open construction sector jobs fell from a revised 328,000 in August to a softer 288,000 in September. Nonetheless, the ongoing skilled labor shortage continues to challenge the construction sector.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report, average hourly earnings for residential building workers was $33.51 per hour in September 2024, increasing 9.9% from $30.5 per hour a year ago. This was 19.2% higher than the manufacturing’s average hourly earnings of $28.12 per hour, 14.7% higher than transportation and warehousing ($29.21 per hour), and 8.1% lower than mining and logging ($36.46 per hour).

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Private residential construction spending inched up 0.2% in September, according to the Census Construction Spending data. The September report shows a 4.1% rise compared to a year ago.  

The monthly increase in total private construction spending for September was largely due to more spending on single-family construction. Spending on single-family construction rose by 0.4% in September. This broke a five-month streak of declines, aligning with the modest gains in single-family starts during September. Compared to a year ago, spending on single-family construction was 0.9% higher.  

In contrast, multifamily construction spending continued to decline, edging down 0.1% in September after a dip of 0.3% in August. Year-over-year, spending on multifamily construction was down 8.1%, as there is an elevated level of apartments under construction being completed. Meanwhile, private residential improvement spending stayed flat for the month and was 13.5% higher than a year ago.  

The NAHB construction spending index is shown in the graph below. The index illustrates how spending on single-family construction has slowed since early 2024 under the pressure of elevated interest rates. Multifamily construction spending growth has also slowed down after the peak in July 2023. Meanwhile, improvement spending has increased its pace since late 2023. 

Spending on private nonresidential construction was up 3.5% over a year ago. The annual private nonresidential spending increase was mainly due to higher spending for the class of manufacturing ($39.4 billion), followed by the power category ($6.9 billion). 

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