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Lending standards were essentially unchanged for all residential mortgage categories in the third quarter of 2024, except for Subprime loans, according to the Federal Reserve Board’s October 2024 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS).  Demand for most residential mortgage loans remained weaker across all categories in the quarter.  Lending conditions for commercial real estate (CRE) loans were moderately tight, amid modestly weak demand as well.  However, NAHB believes that financial conditions for the home building industry should improve next year as the Federal Reserve continues along their current rate cutting cycle.

Residential Mortgages

GSE-eligible and Qualified Mortgage (QM) non-jumbo non-GSE eligible mortgages recorded a neutral net easing index value (i.e., 0) while the other five residential mortgage loan types (Subprime, Non-QM jumbo, QM jumbo, Non-QM non-jumbo, Government) were negative for the third quarter of 2024, representing tightening conditions.

Besides GSE-eligible, which posted stronger demand (i.e., positive value) for the first time since Q2 2021, and QM non-jumbo non-GSE eligible (neutral demand), all other residential mortgage loan categories reported weaker demand in Q3 2024. Weakness is less widespread than in recent quarters, however. Among all residential mortgage loan categories, falling demand is best highlighted by Subprime loans which  experienced weaker demand for 17 consecutive quarters, or for over four years.

Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Loans

Banks reported moderately tightening lending conditions for both multifamily as well as all CRE construction & development loans in the third quarter of 2024.  However, the tightening was not as widespread as in recent quarters. Results show 10 consecutive quarters of tightening lending conditions for CRE loans.

For multifamily, the net percentage of banks reporting stronger demand was -8.2% while –14.8% for construction & development loans.  Although improving, weaker demand has continued for over two years for both CRE loan categories.

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Wages for residential building workers grew at a fast pace of 9.9% in September, following a 10.8% gain in August. These year-over-year growth rates in the past four months were unprecedented in the history of the data series since 1990. After a 0.3% increase in June 2023, the YOY growth rate for residential building worker wages has been trending higher over the past year.

The ongoing skilled labor shortage in the construction labor market and lingering inflation impacts account for the recent acceleration in wage growth. However, the demand for construction labor remained weaker than a year ago. As mentioned in the latest JOLTS blog, the number of open construction sector jobs fell from a revised 328,000 in August to a softer 288,000 in September. Nonetheless, the ongoing skilled labor shortage continues to challenge the construction sector.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report, average hourly earnings for residential building workers was $33.51 per hour in September 2024, increasing 9.9% from $30.5 per hour a year ago. This was 19.2% higher than the manufacturing’s average hourly earnings of $28.12 per hour, 14.7% higher than transportation and warehousing ($29.21 per hour), and 8.1% lower than mining and logging ($36.46 per hour).

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Private residential construction spending inched up 0.2% in September, according to the Census Construction Spending data. The September report shows a 4.1% rise compared to a year ago.  

The monthly increase in total private construction spending for September was largely due to more spending on single-family construction. Spending on single-family construction rose by 0.4% in September. This broke a five-month streak of declines, aligning with the modest gains in single-family starts during September. Compared to a year ago, spending on single-family construction was 0.9% higher.  

In contrast, multifamily construction spending continued to decline, edging down 0.1% in September after a dip of 0.3% in August. Year-over-year, spending on multifamily construction was down 8.1%, as there is an elevated level of apartments under construction being completed. Meanwhile, private residential improvement spending stayed flat for the month and was 13.5% higher than a year ago.  

The NAHB construction spending index is shown in the graph below. The index illustrates how spending on single-family construction has slowed since early 2024 under the pressure of elevated interest rates. Multifamily construction spending growth has also slowed down after the peak in July 2023. Meanwhile, improvement spending has increased its pace since late 2023. 

Spending on private nonresidential construction was up 3.5% over a year ago. The annual private nonresidential spending increase was mainly due to higher spending for the class of manufacturing ($39.4 billion), followed by the power category ($6.9 billion). 

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Nearly 1.3 million tax returns filed for tax year 2023 utilized the Residential Clean Energy Credit (25D tax credit), according to the latest IRS clean energy tax credit statistics. Through May 23rd of the 2024 tax filing season for 2023 returns, almost 138 million tax returns had been filed with the IRS, which indicates that 0.9% of returns filed utilized the 25D credit. Both 25C (Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit) and 25D are claimed on Form 5695, as both are residential energy tax credits. A previous blog discussed the 25C credit, while this one focuses on the 25D credit. The two credits main difference is that 25C relates to improvements that make homes more energy efficient, while 25D is focused on investments associated with renewable energy in the home. The 25D credit is an annual credit that taxpayers may claim for investing in renewable energy for their residence, such as solar, wind, geothermal, fuel cells or battery storage technology.

The 25D tax credit allows home owners to claim qualifying residential clean energy expenditures made to their primary or secondary residence. Renters can also claim the credit for certain residential clean energy expenditures made to their residence while landlords cannot. Additionally, 25D can be applied to newly constructed homes as well as existing homes. The 25D credit amount is based on 30% of the clean energy expenditure and, unlike 25C, has no credit limit with one exception— the credit for fuel cell property expenditures is 30% up to $500 for each half kilowatt of capacity for the qualified fuel cell property. The 30% credit amount will fall to 26% in 2033 and 22% in 2034. Taxpayers can also include installation costs in the calculation of their credit amount.  While the credit is non-refundable, taxpayers can carryforward the credit to reduce their tax liability in future years. Clean energy property must meet certain standards to qualify for the credit. For example, geothermal heat pumps must meet Energy Star requirements at the time of purchase.

Cost of Energy Property and Usage

The recent IRS data indicates that the most expensive clean energy investment claimed in tax year 2023 was the purchase and installation of qualified solar electric property at an average cost of $27,355. Shown below are the average cost and average credit (30% of cost) across each investment, while the average credit amount across all returns that claimed 25D is shown in green at $5,084. While not shown below, the average credit claimed in 2023 that was carryforward from a previous year was $7,019 and the average credit carryforward to next year was $7,464. Both carryforward credits were higher than the average credit amount claimed in 2023.

Solar electric property was also by far the most frequently claimed investment at 752,300 returns. The next highest claimed investment was qualified solar water heating property, with 139,130 returns. No other improvement appeared on over 100,000 returns. The qualified improvement that was least claimed on tax returns was fuel cell property, with only 35,850 returns. Fuel cell property is the only expenditure subject to a cap.

Income and Geographic Differences

The Residential Clean Energy Credit is not subject to income limitations, meaning any taxpayer regardless of income can claim the credit on their tax return. The income level that most frequently claimed the credit was between $500,000 and $1,000,000 at 1.99%. Given the average cost of each improvement, it comes as little surprise that lower incomes claim the credit less frequently.

Geographically, the highest claim rate of the 25D tax credit was in Nevada, with 2.0% of returns claiming the credit. Florida had the second highest claim rate at 1.8%. The lowest claim rate was in North Dakota, at just 0.2%. Of note, higher usage rates of the 25D tax credit are found in states in the southwest, with Nevada (2.0%), Arizona (1.6%), Texas (1.6%), California (1.6%), and New Mexico (1.5%) all ranking in the top ten. This may be due to their significantly higher exposure to the sun, leading to higher potential benefits from installing solar electric property.

New Hampshire had the highest average credit amount at $7,581. This was $500 more than the second highest state which was Hawaii at $7,055. The lowest average credit amount was in Mississippi, at $2,248.

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During the second quarter of 2024, the volume of total outstanding acquisition, development and construction (AD&C) loans posted the largest year-over-year percentage decline since 2012, as interest rates remain elevated before the beginning of the Fed cutting short-term interest rates in September. AD&C loan conditions will improve as the Fed progresses in its policy easing cycle.

The volume of 1-4 unit residential construction loans made by FDIC-insured institutions declined 3.5% during the second quarter. The outstanding stock of loans declined by $3.3 billion for the quarter. This loan volume retreat places the total stock of home building construction loans at $92 billion, off a post-Great Recession high set during the first quarter of 2023 ($105 billion). The decline in loan volume is holding back private builder home construction and acting as a limiting factor for home builder sentiment.

On a year-over-year basis, the stock of residential construction loans is down more than 10%, the largest year-over-year decline since 2012. This contraction for construction financing is a key reason home builder sentiment moved lower at the end of 2023, even as building activity accelerated, propelled by larger builder activity.

It is worth noting the FDIC data represent only the stock of loans, not changes in the underlying flows, so it is an imperfect data source. Lending remains much reduced from years past. The current amount of existing residential AD&C loans now stands 55% lower than the peak level of residential construction lending of $204 billion reached during the first quarter of 2008. Alternative sources of financing, including equity partners, have supplemented this capital market in recent years.

The FDIC data reveal that the total decline from peak lending for home building construction loans continues to exceed that of other AD&C loans (nonresidential, land development, and multifamily). Such forms of AD&C lending are off a smaller 7% from peak lending. For the second quarter, the outstanding stock of these loans was approximately unchanged.

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Private residential construction spending fell 0.3% in August, according to the Census Construction Spending data. Nevertheless, it remained 2.7% higher compared to a year ago.

The monthly decline in total private construction spending for August was largely due to reduced spending on single-family and multifamily construction. Spending on single-family construction fell by 1.5% in August. This marks the fifth consecutive monthly decrease. The rising new single-family home inventory and expectations for lower interest rates both weight on new home building. Despite these challenges, spending on single-family construction was still 0.8% higher than it was a year earlier.

Multifamily construction spending inched down 0.4% in August after a dip of 0.3% in July. Year-over-year, spending on multifamily construction declined 7.5%, as an elevated level of apartments under construction is being completed. Private residential improvement spending increased 1% in August and was 9.4% higher than a year ago.

The NAHB construction spending index is shown in the graph below (the base is January 2000). The index illustrates how spending on single-family construction has slowed since early 2024 under the pressure of elevated interest rates. Multifamily construction spending growth has also slowed down after the peak in July 2023. Meanwhile, improvement spending has increased its pace since late 2023.

Spending on private nonresidential construction was up 3.6% over a year ago. The annual private nonresidential spending increase was mainly due to higher spending for the class of manufacturing ($36.4 billion), followed by the power category ($8.8 billion).

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Prices for inputs to new residential construction, excluding capital investment, labor and imports decreased 0.1% in August according to the most recent Producer Price Index (PPI) report published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Compared to a year ago, this index was up 0.8% in August after a 1.8% increase in July. The inputs to new residential construction price index can be broken into two components­—one for goods and another for services. The goods component increased 0.2% over the year, while services increased 1.9%. For comparison, the total final demand index increased 1.7% over the year in August, with final demand goods flat and final demand services up 2.6% over the year.

Input Goods

The goods component has a larger importance to the total residential inputs price index, around at 60%. The price of inputs to residential construction, goods, remained flat in August after increasing 0.1% in July. The input goods to residential construction index can be further broken down into two separate components, one measuring energy inputs with the other measuring goods less foods and energy inputs. The latter of these two components simply represents building materials used in residential construction, which makes up around 93% of the goods index. Prices for inputs to residential construction, goods less food and energy, were up 1.6% in August compared to a year ago. This year-over-year growth has come down since April, when it was at 2.5% and remains well below the growth in August of 2022, when it was at 14.7%.

The graph below focuses on the data since the start of 2023 for residential goods inputs. Energy prices have retreated over the past year, with only two periods of growth in 2024.

Input Services

Prices of inputs to residential construction, services, fell 0.2% in August after remaining flat in July. The price index for service inputs to residential construction can be broken out into three separate components, a trade services component, a transportation and warehousing services component, and a services less trade, transportation and warehousing component. The most vital component is trade services (around 60%), followed by services less trade, transportation and warehousing (around 29%), and finally transportation and warehousing services (around 11%).

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Private residential construction spending fell 0.4% in July, according to the Census Construction Spending data. Nevertheless, spending remained 7.7% higher compared to a year ago. The monthly decline in total private construction spending for July was largely due to reduced spending on single-family construction. Spending on single-family construction plunged by 1.9% in July, following a dip of 1.1% in June. This marks the fourth consecutive monthly decrease. Elevated mortgage interest rates have cooled the housing market, dampening home builder confidence and new home starts. Despite these challenges, spending on single-family construction was still 4% higher than it was a year earlier.

Multifamily construction spending stayed flat in July after a dip of 0.6% in June. Year-over-year, spending on multifamily construction declined 6.7%, as an elevated level of apartments under construction is being completed. Private residential improvement spending increased 1.2% in July and was 18.3% higher compared to a year ago.

The NAHB construction spending index is shown in the graph below (the base is January 2000). The index illustrates how spending on single-family construction has slowed down the pace since early 2024 under the pressure of elevated interest rates. Multifamily construction spending growth slowed down after the peak in July 2023, while improvement spending increased its pace since late 2023.

Spending on private nonresidential construction was up 4.5% over a year ago. The annual private nonresidential spending increase was mainly due to higher spending for the class of manufacturing ($39.7 billion), followed by the power category ($1 billion).

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A landmark settlement in a lawsuit against the National Association of Realtors could transform how homes are bought and sold starting on Saturday, potentially lowering commission costs and providing greater transparency.

But it could also complicate home purchases for first-time buyers and shake up the real estate brokerage industry.

“This is an opportunity for us to adjust and adapt. In this day and age, so many people are seeking out transparency, and this change in practices gives us that,” said Natalie Davis, a Realtor with Keller Williams Realty Downtown in Denver.

Although buyers and sellers alike could always negotiate terms, including the commission rate, with their agents, industry practice settled into a pattern where sellers paid commission costs in the 5% to 6% range for both sides of a transaction.

Home sellers in Missouri sued to end the practice, which they argued wasn’t fair and had them paying more out of pocket than necessary. The National Association of Realtors settled the case in March for $418 million and agreed to change some of its long-standing practices effective Aug. 17.

One of the biggest changes regards the posting of what a seller would pay an agent bringing a buyer to the table on the multiple listing service or MLS, which local Realtor associations have historically owned.

Agents could see the cooperative compensation information, but consumers didn’t have easy access. So long as sellers were footing the bill, wrapping the commission costs into the sales price, which lenders would finance, it didn’t matter much.

“No longer can real estate brokers put their commissions on the MLS. But they can put that information on their own websites. That is what you are going to see more of. But that will be up to each individual brokerage,” said Tyrone Adams, CEO of the Colorado Association of Realtors.

Buyer agents can contact the listing agent directly to obtain that information when it isn’t publicly available, an added step, but not a huge one.

Separating the commission information from platforms owned by Realtors was meant to address allegations of collusion, while also providing sellers more flexibility in compensating buyer agents.

“Sellers will need to be aware that by not offering compensation, they may diminish the buyer pool. It is the buyer’s choice, not the Realtor’s choice,” said Kelly Moye, a Realtor based in Northglenn.

Steering, or the practice of agents avoiding listings that are less favorable to them, is still prohibited. But it isn’t against the law for buyers to set such conditions.

That is where the tug of war will happen. A buyer who doesn’t have the extra money to cover their agent’s commission may want to limit the listings they consider to only those where the seller has agreed to pay.

But the starter-home market is also where homes sell the fastest and with multiple offers.

Even when the seller is willing to pay a buyer’s agent, showing up with a commission request below the competition could save a seller money and push an offer to the top, said Holden Lewis, a home and mortgage expert with Nerd Wallet in a blog post.

By negotiating on the front end with their agent, buyers can improve their chances when it comes to securing a purchase.

Agents will want to get paid — either by the seller or the buyer — and contracts will state that. But if the buyer is strapped, which is often the case with first-time buyers, they should try to negotiate terms.

“The contract will state how much you will pay the agent representing you either in a flat fee or a percentage of the purchase price, both of which are open to negotiation. Other elements up for negotiation include duration of the contract and geographic area (one or more addresses, zip codes, cities, and counties) for the scope of your search,” Holden said.

The settlement requires buyer agent agreements, which Colorado has long required.  Even standardized contracts leave room for negotiating. If an agent isn’t willing to budge or can’t seem to justify what they are asking for in compensation, consumers are encouraged to look elsewhere.

“As to the regular contract with a financial obligation to compensate the buyer agent, they should not sign this agreement unless they’ve read and understood it and it’s fair to them,” said Stephen Brobeck, a senior fellow at the Consumer Federation of America.

Buyers should request a copy of the agent contract and review it closely before signing, avoiding agents who don’t provide an advanced copy. Buyers should always weigh the services they will receive against the costs.

“We suggest they aim at the dollar equivalent of 2% or less of the sale price,” Brobeck said.

The average buy-side commission paid on a home purchased in Denver was 2.56% in July, down from 2.64% in January, according to a study from Seattle brokerage Redfin. Denver had the 18th highest commission of the 50 metro areas that Redfin examined.

Home tours a sticking point

Most listing agreements don’t allow a buyer to show up and tour a home on their own, aside from an open house. Part of that is to protect sellers, who typically leave when a showing is held and who don’t want strangers walking through their personal space unaccompanied.

The National Association of Realtors, as part of its proposed settlement, is requiring that brokers sign a “touring” or “showing” agreement before taking a potential buyer through a property. It isn’t a full-blown buyer-agent agreement, but will likely discuss compensation should the person touring decide to buy a home.

“The idea is to provide transparency to the buyer regarding compensation and where it will come from,” Moye said.

The Colorado Real Estate Commission, however, argues that showing agreements aren’t required by state law and are part of licensed brokerage duties, said Marcia Waters, director of the Colorado Division of Real Estate.

“That isn’t a consumer-friendly practice and if someone wants to see a property, they shouldn’t be forced to sign an agreement,” Waters said, adding the commission has told the Colorado Association of Realtors as much in a letter.

The Real Estate Commission provides many standardized forms the industry uses, but hasn’t created touring agreements and doesn’t plan to, Waters said.

“If brokers are using touring agreements, they have to hire a licensed Colorado attorney to draft those,” she  warned.

A tougher time for first-timers

Current homeowners who are trading up will typically have enough equity in their homes to cover the cost of an agent. They are also less likely to need hand-holding and can take on more tasks themselves. More concern is focused on first-time buyers.

“First-time buyers are those who need the agent the most. They are also the least likely to be able to afford their buyer agent compensation,” said Lindsey Benton, broker/owner of Live.Laugh.Denver. Real Estate Group.

Downpayment and closing costs are already a burden for many first-time buyers and covering agent fees will add to the upfront expenses that lenders still haven’t figured out how to roll into a mortgage. First-time buyers are also the most vulnerable if they try to go it alone.

The changes could revive less common practices, such as transaction brokers, who behave as arbitrators for both sides rather than fiduciaries for one side or the other, or using an attorney to draft a legally binding contract or buyer self-representation.

New technology-focused alternatives are already arriving. On the same day the NAR changes took effect, San Francisco startup Shay, which describes itself as the “first self-representation” platform for homebuyers, launched.

The tagline on its homepage is: “Buy a home without a realtor. Save $1000s.”

“Paying a real estate agent a fixed percent of a home transaction is simply a bad deal for many homebuyers. We enable homebuyers to save money by doing it themselves. This is similar to how TurboTax gives tax filers an alternative to accountants or Expedia gives travelers an alternative to travel agents,” said Peter Jeffrey, the company’s CEO and founder in a news release.

The platform offers more than 20 guides to help buyers with each step of a transaction and claims its AI models can generate offers, assist with negotiations and review agreements.

Adams counters that purchasing a home is the most complex transaction most consumers will ever undertake and having a trained professional assisting comes with important benefits.

“People will have more conversations about these things and understand what it means for them. That isn’t a bad thing,” he said.

Originally Published: August 17, 2024 at 6:00 a.m.



This article was originally published by a www.denverpost.com . Read the Original article here. .


According to the Federal Reserve Board’s July 2024 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS), lending standards were essentially unchanged for all residential real estate (RRE) categories in the second quarter of 2024.  However, demand for RRE loans remained modestly weaker across all categories in the quarter.  Lending conditions were significantly tighter, and loan demand modestly was weaker across all commercial real estate (CRE) loan categories.  Nevertheless, language from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) suggest that cuts to the federal funds rate are imminent which will be welcomed relief for the real estate market and will help stimulate future loan activity.

Residential Real Estate (RRE)

Four of the seven RRE categories (GSE-eligible, non-Qualified Mortgage or QM jumbo, Non-QM non-jumbo, and Subprime)recorded a net share of banks reported tighter lending standards in Q2 2024 as neutral (i.e., 0%) . The other three categories, which included government (i.e., issued by FHFA, Department of Veteran Affairs, USDA, etc.), QM jumbo, and QM non-jumbo non-GSE eligible recorded a negative reading which means that more banks reported looser rather than tighter conditions.

Six of the seven categories of RRE loans showed a decrease in net tightening from Q1 2024 to Q2 2024, with the only exception being GSE-eligible which increased 1.8 percentage points.  The largest drop in the net tightening percentage occurred for Non-QM jumbo which fell 9.8 percentage points (pp) from 9.8% in Q1 2024 to 0% in Q2 2024.

All RRE categories reported net weaker demand in Q2 2024.  The survey has shown that banks have indicated weaker demand for at least 12 consecutive quarters for all RRE categories going back to Q2 2021 (Subprime leads all RRE categories at 16 consecutive quarters).

Commercial Real Estate (CRE)

Banks reported significantly tighter lending conditions for both multifamily as well as all CRE construction & development loans in Q2 2024.  However, both categories showed less net tightening than they did a quarter before, most noticeably multifamily falling 11.7 percentage points.  Nevertheless, it has been 10 consecutive quarters of tighter lending conditions for construction & development and 9 consecutive quarters for multifamily.

For multifamily, 17.5% of banks reported net weakening of demand for loans which is 16.4 percentage points lower compared to Q1 2024.  As for construction & development loans, 15.9% of banks reported net weakening of demand for loans which was little changed from the previous quarter.  Weaker demand has persisted for roughly the last two years for construction & development (10 consecutive quarters) and multifamily (8 consecutive quarters).

Special Questions

The Federal Reserve included a set of special questions this quarter which asked banks “to describe the current level of lending standards at your bank relative to the range of standards that has prevailed between 2005 and the present.”  Effectively, they are asking banks to think about the median lending standards over the last two decades and determine where do conditions today rank on this continuum.  On balance, banks indicated that the current level of lending standards is located at the tighter end of this range for all loan categories, including CRE and RRE loans.

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