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Florida Housing Market 2024 & Predictions for Next 5 Years

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Sunshine, sandy beaches, and a booming tourism industry have always placed Florida’s housing market in the spotlight. This influx of visitors translates to a constantly evolving real estate market, with opportunities and challenges for potential buyers. Home values continue to rise, though slower than in the recent past. This article explores everything you need to know about Florida’s housing market, from pricing trends to valuable insights for buyers and sellers.

Key Takeaways

Sales Surge: Closed sales of existing single-family homes surged by 5.2% year-over-year in July 2024.
Inventory Growth: Both new listings and inventory rose significantly in July 2024 compared to the previous year.
Median Prices: The median sales price for single-family homes saw a slight increase of 0.5%, while condo prices dropped by 1.3%.
Market Variation: Market behaviors vary by region within Florida, indicating diverse conditions.
Interest Rates Impact: Lower mortgage rates are boosting homebuyer demand, enhancing purchasing power.

How is the Florida Housing Market Doing Currently?
Home Sales

In July 2024, Florida’s housing market reported a total of 23,353 closed sales of existing single-family homes, representing a 5.2% increase from the same month last year. Conversely, condo-townhouse sales experienced a slight decline of 1.2%, totaling 8,364 units sold. This differentiator highlights changing preferences among buyers, with single-family homes gaining popularity amidst evolving market conditions.

According to the data from Florida Realtors®, these closed sales serve as a crucial indicator of market health. While sales for single-family homes have risen, the slight fall in condo sales indicates that different segments are behaving variably and buyers are perhaps gravitating towards larger properties that offer more living space.

Home Prices

Analyzing the median sales prices reveals crucial insights into affordability and market dynamics. The statewide median price for single-family existing homes reached $416,990, essentially unchanged with a 0.5% increase from July 2023. Meanwhile, the median price for condo-townhouse units was reported at $315,000—a 1.3% decline year-over-year.

Dr. Brad O’Connor, Chief Economist for Florida Realtors®, emphasized that these price shifts reflect a stabilization that could mitigate affordability challenges. The slight rise in single-family home prices, coupled with the decrease in condo prices, may indicate a normalization of the market as more inventory becomes available.

Housing Supply

The housing supply in Florida is undergoing a transformation, predominantly marked by increased inventory levels. In July 2024, new listings of single-family homes rose by 10.7% compared to the previous year. The condo and townhouse market saw a even steeper increase of 13.8% for new listings.

As reported by Florida Realtors®, single-family homes currently represent a 4.6-month supply, while the supply for condo-townhouse properties sits at 7.4 months. This developing supply landscape indicates a potential shift towards a buyer’s market, easing some of the price pressures that have dominated recent years.

Market Trends

Market trends in Florida are increasingly reflecting a more balanced approach, influenced heavily by rising inventory and changing sales dynamics. There is a marked difference in how various regions within Florida are faring. Urban centers, such as Miami and Orlando, might display robust demand due to economic drivers, while less-populated areas may see moderate activity.

The data suggests that buyers are beginning to have more options, which ultimately leads to more informed purchasing decisions. Lower mortgage rates are also contributing positively, granting buyers greater purchasing power and encouraging first-time homebuyers to enter the market.

According to Florida Realtors® President Gia Arvin, these trends showcase a promising evolution in the marketplace aimed at addressing ongoing affordability challenges. As inventory continues to expand, buyers may find themselves in a more favorable environment for negotiation, potentially leading to longer-term market stability.

In summary, the Florida housing market is showing resilience and adaptability amid fluctuating conditions. With significant increases in inventory and new listings, along with a modest uptick in single-family home sales, state dynamics are making room for potential growth and stability.

Florida Real Estate Forecast for Next 5 Years

Florida home values have risen by about 80% over the past 5 years and a positive trend is forecasted for the next 5 years. With the recent spike in mortgage payments as a result of rising interest rates, analysts are watching the Florida housing market closely to see what effect this will have. It is likely to restrict house price increases, but to what amount is unclear because there is still a “fear of losing out” attitude among purchasers, which is fueling the market, although slowly.

It’s no surprise that Zillow ranked Tampa, Florida, as the top real estate market in the United States in 2022. Florida housing prices have witnessed some of the most dramatic increases in the country, with Miami and Tampa at the forefront of the upswing. Due to a variety of variables, the housing market in Tampa has outpaced many others, including a large number of potential buyers, a scarcity of supply, strong property sales, and an active employment market in the area.

Overall, the Florida housing market is strong and is predicted to remain so in the next five years. If you’re a seller, this is wonderful news since it implies property values are rising and there isn’t much selling competition, giving you the luxury of selecting from the best offers on your schedule. Higher mortgage rates may cause unprepared house buyers to postpone their purchases.

If this reduces buyer demand sufficiently in some Florida areas, price appreciation may decrease. The lower price increase may provide remaining buyers who can afford higher interest rates more confidence in locating a home they can afford. And that leads to fewer home sales. If you’re selling a home in Florida this year, the odds are good that you’ll come out ahead financially. Real estate prices and mortgage rates are rising, and the few affordable houses that remain are being snapped up like sardines. If you want to buy in this market, now’s not the time to buy.

Whether or not the country enters a recession, the housing market appears to be in good shape for the foreseeable future. Perhaps not at the same rate that the United States has lately seen, but growth nevertheless. This is an excellent moment for real estate investors, particularly those interested in Florida, to capitalize on market possibilities.

Florida Real Estate Appreciation Rates For 10 Years

Florida’s real estate market has seen unprecedented price rises during the last few years, as a result of a lack of supply and high demand. Most of the emphasis is focused on the prices and the possibility of a housing bubble. While Florida’s mild temperature, cheap taxes, and natural attractions have historically enticed newcomers to the state, if affordable housing challenges continue to prevail across the state, these enticing elements may go away.

A post-pandemic world necessitates that the state of Florida deal with the fact that pricey housing can in certain respects impede economic growth and have an unequal impact on critical segments of the population. Florida has had some of the strongest housing appreciation rates in the country over the past decade.

Real estate appreciation rates in Florida have shown significant growth over various time periods, making it an attractive market for investors and homeowners alike. Here’s a breakdown of the appreciation rates based on data from NeighborhoodScout:

Latest Quarter (2022 Q4 – 2023 Q1)

During the latest quarter, spanning from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023, Florida’s real estate market experienced a modest appreciation rate of 0.02%. While this figure may seem relatively low, it’s essential to note that it outperformed the national average by 0.08%, indicating a resilient housing market in the face of economic fluctuations.

Last 12 Months (2022 Q1 – 2023 Q1)

Over the past year, from the first quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023, Florida’s real estate market saw a substantial appreciation rate of 13.07%. This robust growth mirrored the average annual rate, once again highlighting the state’s resilience and attractiveness to investors, with a remarkable performance ranking of 10 compared to the rest of the country.

Last 2 Years (2021 Q1 – 2023 Q1)

Examining a slightly longer timeframe, from the first quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2023, the appreciation rate in Florida stood at an impressive 44.36%. This growth far exceeded the national average, by 20.15%, reinforcing Florida’s reputation as a thriving real estate market.

Last 5 Years (2018 Q1 – 2023 Q1)

Over the past five years, from the first quarter of 2018 to the first quarter of 2023, Florida’s real estate market exhibited substantial appreciation, boasting a rate of 77.01%. This rate exceeded the national average by 12.10%, signifying Florida’s consistent and strong real estate performance.

Last 10 Years (2013 Q1 – 2023 Q1)

When considering the last decade, from the first quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2023, Florida’s real estate market recorded remarkable appreciation of 174.83%. This growth, which surpassed the national average by 10.64%, demonstrates the state’s enduring appeal to real estate investors.

Since 2000 (2000 Q1 – 2023 Q1)

Finally, when looking at the broader picture from the first quarter of 2000 to the first quarter of 2023, Florida’s real estate market experienced exceptional appreciation, amounting to 281.81%. Even over this extended period, Florida outperformed the national average by 6.00%, reaffirming its status as a top choice for real estate investment over the years.

These appreciation rates indicate the dynamic and resilient nature of Florida’s real estate market, making it an attractive destination for those looking to invest in property.

Within Florida, Tampa Bay has one of the most overpriced housing markets in the nation, according to new research from Florida Atlantic University. Extremely low mortgage rates drove our red-hot housing market, particularly during the epidemic, and intensified bidding wars. Lakeland ranks 12th nationally, and second in the state, with homes overvalued by more than 53.2%. North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton is No. 17 nationally, fourth in the state at 48.9%.

What’s Affecting the Florida Housing Market in 2024?

Florida’s housing market, once a whirlwind of bidding wars and record-breaking sales, has entered a new phase in 2024. Let’s delve deeper into the key factors shaping this evolving landscape:

The Interest Rate Effect: The most impactful change is the significant rise in mortgage rates. Rates that hovered around 3% in early 2023 have climbed to over 7%, significantly affecting affordability and dampening buyer fervor. This translates to buyers having more breathing room to negotiate and explore options, a stark contrast to the recent past.
Inventory In Flux: With the sales frenzy subsiding, the number of homes on the market is gradually increasing. This rise in inventory benefits buyers by providing more choices and alleviating the intense competition that characterized the market in prior years. While some sellers may still experience bidding wars, particularly for highly desirable properties, buyers are no longer pressured into hasty decisions fueled by a lack of options.
Price Growth in Check: Fueled by low inventory and high demand, home prices in Florida have enjoyed steady appreciation for years. However, with rising interest rates squeezing affordability, the pace of appreciation is expected to slow down considerably in 2024. Experts even predict price stability or slight corrections in some areas, particularly those that experienced the most dramatic price hikes. This could present a potential buying opportunity for those who were previously priced out of the market.
Sellers Re-entering the Fray: Many homeowners who opted to hold off on selling during the seller’s market frenzy may decide to re-enter the market in 2024. This influx of listings will further contribute to the rise in available inventory, potentially tipping the scales further in favor of buyers. However, it’s important to note that Florida’s enduring appeal as a retirement destination and tax haven will continue to attract new residents, putting pressure on housing supply despite the market shift.
Demographic Shifts Continue: Florida’s sunshine, sandy beaches, and reputation for a relaxed lifestyle continue to be a magnet for retirees and those seeking a lower tax burden. This steady influx of new residents will undoubtedly put pressure on housing supply, even with the anticipated rise in inventory. This means that while affordability may improve in the short term, long-term price appreciation is still a possibility due to these strong demographic tailwinds.
New Construction on the Horizon: The persistent demand for housing, coupled with the ongoing shortage of existing inventory, may incentivize an increase in new home construction in 2024. This could help alleviate some of the pressure on housing supply, particularly in high-demand areas. However, rising construction costs and ongoing supply chain issues could pose challenges for builders, potentially limiting the pace of new development.

Will the Housing Market Crash in Florida?

Population growth, and particularly growth in the number of households, lead to a growth in housing demand. Real estate is subject to the law of supply and demand: when there are more purchasers than available homes, prices rise.  Since the 1940s, Florida’s population has increased year after year, often outperforming the national average. However, like the rest of the United States, growth plummeted to historic lows during the initial years of the pandemic until rebounding last year.

Florida is now America’s fastest-growing state. According to recent census data, the Sunshine State added over 400,000 additional people between July 2021 to July 2022. It was a growth of 1.9%, bringing the total population to 22,244,823. That makes it faster-growing than Texas, which has the second-largest population in the United States, trailing only California.

According to experts, the national housing market or the market in Florida is nowhere near the crash that occurred during the Great Recession of 2008. This is partially due to tighter lending laws coming from the financial crisis. Borrowers are in considerably better shape, as seen by their improved credit scores. And as a result of rising home values, homeowners have a record amount of equity.

The current situation is a fairly complex web, but it’s nothing compared to the 2008-2009 market crisis, which took years to unravel. The Fed’s pandemic actions fueled a housing boom. As it tries to withdraw that support, it could be bad news for housing but will it lead to a crash? The Fed will continue to play a crucial role in the future of the housing market.

Back in February 2020, the Fed owned $1.4 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, and the number was falling rapidly. As the pandemic took root, however, the central bank initiated a new round of bond purchases (known as “quantitative easing”), bringing the number to $2.7 trillion.

Fed seeks to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation Although it wants to shrink that portfolio it is quite improbable that the Fed can unwind its balance sheet. It might simply accept the fact that it will continue to play a disproportionate role in the housing market and have a larger balance sheet than it would prefer. Prepare for a collapse, not a correction, in the housing market during the next 18 to 24 months if they do.

How is the Florida Housing Market for Investors?

Florida’s strong population growth, diverse job market, tourist attractions, affordable property prices, tax benefits, and diversified economy all contribute to making it a hot spot for real estate investment.

Strong Population Growth and Job Market:

Florida has strong population growth, particularly in cities like Miami, Orlando, and Tampa. The population has grown consistently and positively over the years, and in 2023, it increased by 1.6%. This makes Florida the third most populated state in the US, with a population of over 22.6 million people.

In 2022, Florida was the fastest-growing state in the country for the first time since the 1950s, increasing by 1.9%. This leads to an increased demand for housing, making it a prime location for real estate investment.

Additionally, Florida’s job market is diverse and growing, which attracts new residents and supports the demand for housing. According to FloridaCommerce, Florida’s private sector job growth rate increased by 2.1% in March 2024, which is faster than the national rate of 1.7%. In January 2024, Florida’s labor force grew by 2.2%, which is faster than the national rate of 0.8%.

Tourist Attraction:

Florida is a booming real estate market due to tourism. Florida attracts millions of tourists annually. In 2023, Florida’s market share of domestic tourists increased to 14.8%, up from 13.8% in 2022. This surge in market share represents the largest increase of any state, underscoring Florida’s appeal to travelers from across the country.2 days ago

In tourist-heavy areas like Miami, Orlando, and others, vacation rental properties are in high demand. Vacation rentals offer greater space, privacy, and facilities than hotels for Florida tourists. Investors can earn rental income and gain property value via vacation rentals.

Vacation rental properties are more reliable and profitable than typical rental properties due to high demand. Tourists pay extra for comfortable vacation rentals. Tourist demand can remain consistent throughout economic downturns, making vacation rental properties more market-resilient. Florida’s great tourist draw can offer real estate investors looking for vacation rental properties a reliable and successful revenue stream and property value appreciation.

Realtively Affordable Property Prices:

Compared to other states like California, property prices in Florida are relatively affordable, which can make it an attractive option for real estate investors. This can lead to strong returns on investment and can make it easier for investors to purchase multiple properties. It’s important to note that property prices can vary widely depending on location and property type. While some areas of Florida may have lower property prices, other areas, such as beachfront or tourist-friendly areas, may have higher property prices.

Tax Benefits:

Florida’s lack of state income tax holds significant advantages for real estate investors. This translates to higher net profits, as rental income isn’t taxed by the state. This frees up more cash flow that can be used for reinvestment, debt repayment, or simply boosting financial security. Additionally, the absence of state income tax directly improves the return on investment (ROI). With less money going towards taxes, the overall return becomes more attractive.

Compared to real estate markets in states with high income tax rates, Florida offers a competitive edge. Investors looking to maximize their returns are naturally drawn to Florida’s tax benefits. There’s also a tax deferral advantage. Capital gains taxes on selling an investment property are typically deferred until the sale occurs. This allows investors to accumulate wealth and potentially benefit from lower tax rates in the future.

For seasonal residents who rent out their properties during off-seasons, Florida’s tax structure is particularly attractive. The lack of state income tax on rental income can be a major draw, making Florida a compelling option for this investor group.

It’s important to remember that while there’s no state income tax, Florida does have other taxes that can impact real estate investors. Property taxes and sales taxes on renovations are important factors to consider. Consulting with a tax advisor is crucial to fully understand the tax implications of real estate investment in Florida.

Diversified Economy:

Florida’s real estate market benefits from the state’s diverse economic landscape. Unlike regions reliant on a single industry, Florida’s economic engine is powered by a mix of sectors like agriculture, tourism, aerospace, and technology. This diversification acts as a buffer during economic downturns.

Florida’s economy grew 9.3% in 2023, the fastest rate in the country, and is expected to continue to grow at a faster pace than any other state. However, some expect growth to decelerate to 2.8% and 1.1% over the current and next fiscal years as businesses and consumers transition from a high inflation environment to a high interest rate environment.

Even if one industry slumps, the others can help maintain stability, which translates to a more predictable market for real estate investors. However, this advantage shouldn’t overshadow the importance of thorough research. Understanding the specific market, the property itself, and developing a risk management plan are all crucial steps before investing in Florida real estate.





This article was originally published by a www.noradarealestate.com . Read the Original article here. .

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Housing Market Predictions For 2024: When Will Home Prices Be Affordable Again?

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Editorial Note: We earn a commission from partner links on Forbes Advisor. Commissions do not affect our editors’ opinions or evaluations.

The housing market might finally be entering a transitional phase.

Summer sales have been tepid thus far, but there are signs that activity could heat up by the end of the summer as mortgage rates plunge to their lowest levels in roughly 15 months and much-needed resale inventory continues to enter the market, giving buyers more options.

Other good news for home shoppers is the ongoing decline in the median price for a new home—now below the median resale home price—even as builders continue offering buyer incentives.

Nonetheless, experts say the housing market will only see renewed momentum once mortgage rates drop enough to ease affordability challenges and incentivize homeowners locked in at low rates to move so inventory grows substantially to meet demand.

Housing Market Forecast for 2024

U.S. home prices posted a 5.9% annual gain for May, down from a 6.4% annualized gain in April, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Yet, even as this annual gain marks a slowdown, the index still broke the previous month’s record high, indicating home prices are still out of reach for many.

“Affordability is the main constraint on the housing market,” Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, said in an emailed statement. “The market will move toward more of a balanced housing market in the second half of the year, but prospective home buyers will still face competition.”

Though affordability obstacles persist for buyers, other indicators suggest that the market is tilting toward buyers. Zillow reports that roughly 25% of its listings saw price cuts in June. The last time the rate was this high for cuts this time of year was in 2018.

Meanwhile, experts are hopeful that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will finally cut the federal funds rate in September, as inflation is cooling down sustainably toward the Fed’s 2% target.

Mortgage rates indirectly track this benchmark interest rate banks use as a guide for overnight lending. With the federal funds rate at its highest level in over two decades, mortgage rates—and borrowers—have been feeling the added impact on their ability to afford a home.

Will the Housing Market Finally Recover in 2024?

For a housing recovery to occur, several conditions must unfold.

“For the best possible outcome, we’d first need to see inventories of homes for sale turn considerably higher,” says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at online mortgage company HSH.com. “This additional inventory, in turn, would ease the upward pressure on home prices, leveling them off or perhaps helping them to settle back somewhat from peak or near-peak levels.”

Of course, mortgage rates would need to cool off, which seems promising given the recent declines. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has been below 7% since the first week of June and has largely trended down, landing at 6.49% in the week ending August 15.

However, when mortgage rates finally go on the descent, Gumbinger says don’t hope they cool too quickly. Rapidly falling rates could create a surge of demand that wipes away any inventory gains, causing home prices to rebound.

“Better that rate reductions happen at a metered pace, incrementally improving buyer opportunities over a stretch of time, rather than all at once,” Gumbinger says.

He adds that mortgage rates returning to a more “normal” upper 4% to lower 5% range would also help the housing market, over time, return to 2014-2019 levels. Yet, Gumbinger predicts it could be a while before we return to those rates.

NAR To Implement Settlement Agreement Changes in August

Following years of litigation, the NAR has agreed to pay $418 million to settle a series of high-profile antitrust lawsuits filed in 2019 on behalf of home sellers. The settlement received preliminary court approval in April. A judge is expected to grant final approval in November. Meanwhile, NAR announced that the new required practices will go into effect on August 17.

The required new rules prohibit broker compensation offers on multiple listing services (MLS), the private databases that allow local real estate brokers to publish and share information about residential property listings.

Moreover, sellers will no longer be responsible for paying buyer broker commissions—upending an accepted practice that has been in place for years—and real estate agents participating in the MLS must establish written representation agreements with buyers.

If you sold a home in the past 10 years, you may be eligible for a small piece of this settlement pie. Visit realestatecommissionlitigation.com for more information about filing a claim.

Housing Inventory Forecast: When Will There Be Sufficient Supply To Reduce Prices?

Despite more resale homes entering the market, the inventory shortage remains severe and likely will for some time, thanks to multiple headwinds.

For one, many homeowners remain “locked in” at ultra-low mortgage rates, unwilling to exchange for a higher rate in a high-priced housing market. Consequently, demand continues to outpace housing supply—and likely will for the remainder of this year.

“I don’t expect to see a meaningful increase in the supply of existing homes for sale until mortgage rates are back down in the low 5% range, so probably not in 2024,” says Rick Sharga, founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, a market intelligence and business advisory firm.

New home construction has provided some relief, with inventory at its highest since early 2008. However, more than this welcome supply is needed to fill the inventory gap.

Still, while inventory is some 33% lower than pre-pandemic averages, there is a bright spot in the data—current inventory levels sit at their smallest deficit since fall 2020, according to Zillow analysis. Inventory may improve further if home prices and mortgage rates stay high.

Here’s what the latest home values look like around the country.

Home Builder Sentiment Ticks Down Again

Builder sentiment continues to wilt with the summer heat.

High mortgage rates and sticky inflation are primarily to blame for the dampened outlook for new construction, with builder confidence inching down from 43 to 42 in June, according to the most recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This reading marks the third consecutive month of downward movement and negative sentiment.

A reading of 50 or above means more builders see good conditions ahead for new construction.

Meanwhile, the construction of new homes, which had been on a tear, helping to fill the hole left by scant resale inventory, continues to sputter.

New single-family home permits fell to their lowest seasonally adjusted annual rate since May 2023 amid builder blahs, dipping 2.3% month-over-month in June, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Housing starts were down 2.2%, and completions rose only 1.8% from May.

Meanwhile, prospective buyers have reason to be optimistic: 31% of builders slashed prices in June to bolster sales compared to 25% in May, according to an NAHB press statement. A majority of builders were also open to offering incentives.

Residential Real Estate Stats: Existing, New and Pending Home Sales

New and existing home sales were down in June, but pending sales are looking up. Here’s what the latest home sales data has to say.

Existing-Home Sales

Existing-home sales slumped 5.4% in June, according to the latest report from NAR, marking the fourth straight month of declines as home prices reached their highest on record, putting off potential buyers. Sales also fell 5.4% compared to June last year.

Could we finally be tipping over into a buyer’s market? Experts seem to think so.

“Homes are sitting on the market a bit longer, and sellers are receiving fewer offers,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, in the report. “More buyers are insisting on home inspections and appraisals, and inventory is definitively rising on a national basis.”

Meanwhile, resale homes hit an eye-popping $426,900, a bridge too far for many prospective buyers.

Still, there’s an upside to out-of-reach home prices prompting sales declines—resale inventory has been loosening since December and hit its highest levels in over four years.

The latest NAR data shows inventory growing 3.1% month-over-month, logging 1.32 million unsold homes at the end of June. Supply crossed a key threshold, with 4.1 months of inventory available at the current monthly sales pace. Most experts consider a balanced market between four and six months.

New Home Sales

Meanwhile, despite their appeal, new homes were also not invulnerable to the high mortgage rates we saw this spring.

Amid rates hovering near or above 7%, June sales of newly constructed single-family houses inched down 0.6% compared to May sales and plunged 7.4% from a year ago, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau and HUD data.

The good news for prospective buyers is that the slow pace of new home sales continues to push up new home inventory. Even so, buyers aren’t biting.

“Many buyers are holding off on jumping into the market, hoping to see lower mortgage rates or lower home prices later this year,” said Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, in an emailed statement.

Speaking of lower home prices, those shopping for new construction will be happy to hear that the median price for a new home in June fell $100 to $417,300, putting the national median new home price below the national median existing-home price by $9,600.

The South and Midwest regions registered the lowest median new home sales prices in Q2 at roughly $372,000, according to pending U.S. Census Bureau and HUD quarterly sales data.

Recent Home Sales Data

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and NAR

See More See Less

Pending Home Sales

Home sales may heat up toward the end of summer.

NAR’s Pending Homes Sales Index jumped 4.8% in June compared to the previous month, with contract signings increasing in all four U.S. regions. This welcome reading follows a dismal April and May when the index plummeted by nearly 10%.

Buyers took advantage of the increase in inventory coupled with the average 30-year fixed rate breaking below 7% in June and sliding further over the month.

A pending home sale marks the point in the purchase transaction when the buyer and seller agree on price and terms and is considered a leading indicator of a closed existing-home sale within the next one to two months.

Despite the month-over-month bump, pending transactions were down 2.6% annually. Still, experts anticipate that reading could improve in a few months when rates could be meaningfully lower compared to 2023.

“The number of pending sales in June would have been even higher, but some home buyers are holding back, anticipating lower mortgage rates later this year,” said Sturtevant in an emailed statement.

Affordability Challenges Hinder Summer Housing Market From Gathering Steam: Will Fall Be Better for Buyers?

Though home prices and mortgage rates remain high, there are signs the housing market is moving back into balance—albeit slowly and unevenly across regions.

In the week ending June 27, when mortgage rates were 6.86%, borrowers who put 20% down on a $417,300 median-priced resale home with a 30-year mortgage had to shell out a monthly mortgage payment of $2,189, not including property taxes and insurance.

Someone who purchased a resale home a year ago is paying only $32 less per month.

Even so, the latest NAR Housing Affordability Index shows that challenges remain.

The index receded to a preliminary reading of 93.1 in May. A national index reading below 100 indicates that a median-priced home is unaffordable for the typical family earning a median income.

At the NAR Real Estate State Forecast Summit in July, Yun noted that the current monthly payment for a median-priced house, excluding insurance and property taxes, has more than doubled since 2019.

To add insult to injury, it now costs first-time home buyers $1 million to buy a starter home in over 237 U.S. cities—up from 84 five years ago—according to a Zillow report. Though the national median price for a starter home is an affordable $196,611, it’s probably easier to find a needle in a haystack.

So, when can prospective buyers finally hope to get some relief?

Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, cautions against holding your breath.

“While we expect home price growth to decelerate further in the coming quarters, a still-tight inventory of homes for sale and stretched affordability remain significant challenges and, in our view, are likely to constrain mortgage demand and home sales for the foreseeable future,” he said in a press statement.

Pro Tips for Buyers and Sellers

Here are some expert tips to increase your chances for an optimal outcome in this tight housing market.

Pro Tips for Buying in Today’s Real Estate Market

Hannah Jones, a senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, offers this expert advice to aspiring buyers:

Know your budget. Instead of focusing on price, figure out how much you can afford as a monthly payment. Your monthly housing payment is influenced by the price of the home, your down payment, mortgage rate, loan term, home insurance and property taxes.
Be flexible about home size and location. Perhaps your budget is sufficient for a small home in your perfect neighborhood, or a larger, newer home further out. Understanding your priorities and having some flexibility can help you move quickly when a suitable home enters the market.
Keep an eye on the market where you hope to buy. Determine the area’s available inventory and price levels. Also, pay attention to how quickly homes sell. Not only will you be tuned in when something great hits the market, you can feel more confident moving forward with purchasing a well-priced home. A real estate agent can help with this.
Don’t be discouraged. Purchasing a home is one of the largest financial decisions you’ll ever make. Approaching the market confidently, armed with good information and grounded expectations will take you far. Don’t let the hustle of the market convince you to buy something that’s not in your budget, or not right for your lifestyle.

…Always get pre-approved with a strong and reputable lender as soon as possible. Getting pre-approved will give you a much clearer understanding of your budget and what you can afford, it shows sellers that you’re a qualified buyer and it strengthens your offers.

— Scott Bridges, senior managing director at Pennymac and Forbes Advisor advisory board member

Pro Tips for Selling in Today’s Real Estate Market

Gary Ashton, founder of The Ashton Real Estate Group of RE/MAX Advantage, has this expert advice for sellers:

Research comparable home prices in your area. Sellers need to have the most up-to-date pricing intel on comparable homes selling in their market. Know the market competition and price the home competitively. In addition, understand that in some price points it’s a buyer’s market—you’ll need to be prepared to make some concessions.
Make sure your home is in top-notch shape. Homes need to be in great condition to compete and create a strong “online curb appeal.” Well-maintained homes and attractive front yards are major features that buyers look for.
Work with a local real estate agent. A real estate agent or team with a strong local marketing presence and access to major real estate portals can offer significant value and help you land a great deal.
Don’t put off issues that require attention. Prepare the home by making any repairs or improvements. Removing any objections that buyers may see helps focus the buyer on the positive attributes of the home.

Will the Housing Market Crash in 2024?

As already-high home prices continue trending upward, you may be concerned that we’re in a bubble ready to pop. However, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.

“[T]he record low supply of houses on the market protects against a market crash,” says Tom Hutchens, executive vice president of production at Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions, a non-QM lender.

Moreover, experts point out that today’s homeowners stand on much more secure footing than those coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, with many borrowers having substantial home equity.

“In 2024, I expect we’ll see home appreciation take a step back but not plummet,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.

This outlook aligns with what other housing market watchers expect.

“Comerica forecasts that national house prices will rise 2.9% in 2024,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, in an emailed statement.

Divounguy also notes that several factors, including Millennials entering their prime home-buying years, wage growth and financial wealth are tailwinds that will sustain housing demand in 2024.

Even so, with fewer homes selling, Dan Hnatkovskyy, co-founder and CEO of NewHomesMate, a marketplace for new construction homes, sees a price collapse within the realm of possibility, especially in markets where real estate investors scooped up numerous properties.

“If something pushes that over the edge, the consequences could be severe,” said Hnatkovskyy, in an emailed statement.

What Experts Are Saying About a Foreclosures Wave in 2024

Lenders began foreclosures on 18,574 properties nationwide in June, down 17% from the previous month and down 22.7% from a year ago, according to real estate data firm Attom.

Meanwhile, completed foreclosures edged up a hair compared to the previous month, with real estate-owned properties, or REOs, increasing by 0.1%. More notably, REOs were down 10% from a year ago. REOs are homes that didn’t sell at foreclosure auctions, with mortgage lenders taking possession of the properties.

These June figures cap off a six-month span of decreases in foreclosure filings compared to the year prior, with the first half of 2024 running 4.4% lower than the same period in 2023.

“These shifts could suggest a potential stabilization in the housing market; however, monitoring these evolving patterns remains crucial to understanding the full impact on the real estate sector,” said Rob Barber, CEO at Attom, in the report.

Whatever patterns evolve in the coming months, experts generally don’t expect to see a wave of foreclosures in 2024.

“Foreclosure activity continues to lag behind pre-pandemic levels and is still at about 70% of 2019 numbers,” says Sharga.

Sharga explains that a significant factor contributing to today’s comparatively low levels of foreclosure activity is that homeowners—including those in foreclosure—possess an unprecedented amount of home equity.

Homeowners with mortgages saw a collective increase of $1.5 trillion in home equity, lifting total net homeowner equity to over $17 trillion in Q1 2024, the highest figure since late 2022, according to the latest CoreLogic home equity report.

Meanwhile, more homeowners are getting richer as home price growth surges. The percentage of equity-rich mortgages rose in 48 out of 50 states between Q1 and Q2 this year, according to Attom.

“For a homeowner in the early stage of foreclosure, that equity helps them avoid a foreclosure sale, either by leveraging the equity to pay down past due mortgage bills, or by selling their property in order to protect the equity they’d otherwise lose at the auction,” Sharga says.

When Will Be the Best Time To Buy a Home in 2024?

Buying a house—in any market—is a highly personal decision. Because homes represent the largest single purchase most people will make in their lifetime, it’s crucial to be in a solid financial position before diving in.

Use a mortgage calculator to estimate your monthly housing costs based on your down. But if you’re trying to predict what might happen next year, experts say this is probably not the best home-buying strategy.

“The housing market—like so many other markets—is almost impossible to time,“ Divounguy says. “The best time for prospective buyers is when they find a home that they like, that meets their family’s current and foreseeable needs and that they can afford.”

Gumbinger agrees it’s hard to tell would-be homeowners to wait for better conditions.

“More often, it seems the case that home prices generally keep rising, so the goalposts for amassing a down payment keep moving, and there’s no guarantee that tomorrow’s conditions will be all that much better in the aggregate than today’s.”

Divounguy says “getting on the housing ladder” is worthwhile to begin building equity and net worth.

Historically, families with children often find the summer months to be the best time to buy. With that said, recent trends suggest late fall or early winter can also be a great time for homebuyers to purchase a new property due to less buying pressure. Once the summer ends, many buyers have completed their purchase and are no longer in the market, which means less competition.

– Scott Bridges, senior managing director at Pennymac and Forbes Advisor advisory board member

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Will declining mortgage rates cause home prices to rise?

Declining mortgage rates will likely incentivize would-be buyers anxious to own a home to jump into the market. Expect this increased demand amid today’s tight housing supply to put upward pressure on home prices.

What will happen if the housing market crashes?

Most experts do not expect a housing market crash in 2024 since many homeowners have built up significant home equity. The issue is primarily an affordability crisis. High interest rates and inflated home values have made purchasing a home challenging for first-time homebuyers.

Is it smart to buy real estate before a recession?

If you’re in a financial position to buy a home you plan to live in for the long term, it won’t matter when you buy it because you will live in it through economic highs and lows. However, if you are looking to buy real estate as a short-term investment, it will come with more risk if you buy at the height before a recession.



This article was originally published by a www.forbes.com . Read the Original article here. .

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Housing Market Predictions for 2024

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If you’re thinking about buying or selling a house right now and wondering about the real estate housing market, you’re not alone. The housing market has seen a lot of unusual trends in the past couple of years, so it makes sense you’d want the latest market update before you decide to buy or sell. The truth is, housing market predictions are about as reliable as weather forecasts. The real estate pros make their best predictions based on data, but no one can know what’s going to happen with 100% accuracy.

Still, even if you don’t know for sure, you can check out what the experts are saying and make some pretty good guesses. Just remember, you never want to let a market prediction control your housing decisions . . . only your personal situation and finances should do that!

With that said, here’s the real estate market forecast.

 

Will Mortgage Rates Go Down in 2024?

Mortgage interest rates have been rising like crazy over the last few years, thanks to the Federal Reserve (also known as the Fed) repeatedly raising the federal funds rate. But will that trend finally start heading in the other direction in 2024? Yep! In fact, it already has.

Average interest rates across the U.S. for both 30-year and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages began steadily going down in November 2023, and that trend continued into January 2024.1 Rates will likely keep going down throughout the rest of the year, especially since the Fed projected that it’ll lower the federal funds rate three times in 2024.2

So, what does that mean for the housing market? First, it means that buyer demand could increase in 2024 since more people will be able to afford a mortgage. It also means that, if you’re financially ready to buy a house, there’s no reason to wait around—since an increase in demand would also lead to an increase in home prices.

How do you know if you’re financially ready to buy? Let’s take a look.

Should I Buy a House in 2024?

You’re ready to buy a house in 2024 if (and only if) you can check off these boxes:

You’re debt-free.
You have an emergency fund of 3–6 months of expenses.
Your monthly house payment will be 25% or less of your monthly take-home pay on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage.
You have a down payment. A 20% down payment is ideal because you’ll avoid paying private mortgage insurance (PMI). But 5–10% is okay, too, if you’re a first-time home buyer. Just be prepared to pay PMI. And steer clear of FHA and VA loans—you’ll pay much more in fees with them.
You can pay the closing costs up front without stealing from your down payment.

If you don’t meet these qualifications, it doesn’t matter if the market is in your favor. Buying a home would end up being a curse instead of a blessing. Take your time to get in a better financial position so you can buy a house the right way.

 

Housing Market Recession: What Is It and Are We in One?

A housing market recession means the total number of home sales has been shrinking for at least six months in a row. So, has that been happening? Nope! In fact, home sales actually grew from May to June 2023, and again from July to August.3 That means the housing market is steady, even though sales saw a seasonal decline toward the end of the year.

Find expert agents to help you buy your home.

But even if home sales become unstable and start decreasing consistently in 2024, a housing recession isn’t really something to worry about—the prices will stay about the same.

You’d only worry about the market if the declining home sales were indicating too much supply (houses for sale) and not enough buyer demand. That would make home values plummet and hurt the overall economy. But that’s not what’s happening!

Forecast: Will the Housing Market Crash in 2024?

If you’re concerned about the housing market potentially crashing in 2024, you can put those worries to rest. Not only will prices not drop substantially in 2024, but prices are actually more likely to continue rising. The National Association of Realtors predicts that when August 2024 rolls around, existing home prices will be 2.6% higher than the year before.4 Freddie Mac expects a 0.8% bump during the same timeframe.5

To get a clearer picture of what to expect from the housing market in 2024, let’s go over the three factors that influence prices the most: inventory, buyer demand and interest rates.

What’s the Average House Price in 2024?

The average home price in the U.S. was $736,388 in December 2023 (including existing homes, new builds, single-family homes, condos and townhomes). But most experts report on the median, which was $410,000 in December 2023.6

 

Just so you know, the median price is right smack-dab in the middle of lowest to highest prices. It’s usually better to look at the median home price than the average. That’s because a small group of abnormally high- or low-priced houses can throw off the average and make regular homes seem more or less expensive than they really are. (Just something to keep in mind as you watch the average house price fluctuate in 2024.)

The main thing to know about this (and any) market is that home prices are determined by inventory and demand. Here’s a look at what you can expect in each of those areas.

Housing Inventory

Housing inventory simply refers to the number of houses for sale. When fewer houses are available, buyers are willing to pay more, and sellers have more leverage to increase their asking price. So, low inventory leads to higher home prices. It’s a big reason why buying a home has gotten so expensive recently.

When it comes to housing inventory for 2024, it looks like the number of houses on the market will still be low. For reference: The total housing inventory in December 2023 was 4.9% higher than the year before, but it was 4.7% lower than November 2023 and still a whopping 36% lower than pre-COVID levels.7 

And even though plenty of new houses are being built, it’s not happening fast enough to make a major difference in overall housing inventory. In fact, the number permits issued for new builds was down 11.7% year-to-date in November 2023.8

Buyer Demand

Like we talked about earlier, buyer demand could sink in 2024, especially if the Federal Reserve continues to increase federal interest rates. Today, buyer demand is still greater than housing supply. So home prices are likely to stay mostly the same in 2024, with some markets experiencing a small increase or a small decrease in dollar amount.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House?

Here’s the thing: The market shouldn’t determine your decision to buy a house. If you’re prepared financially like we talked about earlier, then it’s a good time to buy a home—even if inventory is limited and interest rates are high. If you’re not financially prepared, it’s not a good time, even if there’s plenty of inventory and rates are down.

What the 2024 Housing Market Means for Buyers and Sellers

Is It a Buyer’s Market?

In a buyer’s market, there are more homes for sale than buyers. But since home supply is still low, it doesn’t look like there’ll be a buyer’s market anytime soon.

The good news is, the market isn’t as hot as it was in the past few years. If you’re looking to buy, you’ll have a few more options—and maybe less competition. Yes, prices are still high, but the frenzy is slowing down.

Is It a Seller’s Market?

A seller’s market is when demand for homes is higher than the supply of homes. And that’s still the case right now. If you’re planning to sell your house, you can expect to sell it fairly quickly for close to your asking price—as long as your asking price is realistic for the current market. (It’s easy to value your home based on memories and how much you loved living there, but a good agent will help you price it fairly.)

Will There Be a Lot of Foreclosures in 2024?

Foreclosures will likely rise throughout 2024, just as they did in 2023. For reference, the number of foreclosures in 2023 was 10% higher than the year before.9

Now, if you’re concerned about a repeat of the crazy number of foreclosures we saw back in 2010 on the heels of the Great Recession, here’s a stat that should give you some peace of mind: While foreclosure repossessions were up 10% in 2023 compared to 2022—that was still down 28% compared to 2019, and down 88% compared to the peak of foreclosures in 2010 caused by the Great Recession.10 

Plus, most of the homes in foreclosure today probably won’t be repossessed by lenders like they were during the Great Recession. That’s because many of the borrowers in foreclosure today have positive equity (their homes are worth more than they owe), which they can use to avoid foreclosure by selling their house.11

Here’s what all this foreclosure stuff means for homeowners and home buyers:

Homeowners: Since the market isn’t going to get flooded with foreclosures, you can rest easy, knowing your home isn’t going to tank in value because of a sudden increase in home inventory.

Home buyers: If you’re waiting to find a great deal on a foreclosure, don’t hold your breath. This market is nothing like the Great Recession. And keep in mind, buying a foreclosed home could come with its own set of potential issues. So, make sure you do your homework on the house and know what you’re getting yourself into before you buy.

How to Buy or Sell With Confidence in Any Housing Market

I know buying or selling a house may seem overwhelming, especially after all the wackiness we’ve seen in the market over the last few years, but you’ve got this!

Yes, the cost of buying a house is higher than it’s ever been before. And yes, selling a home in 2024 will come with obstacles—like higher-than-normal interest rates and high home values pricing out a lot of would-be buyers. But just because buying or selling may be more difficult now than it was a couple of years back, it is not impossible.

You still control your financial future. That includes real estate—no matter what’s going on in the market.



This article was originally published by a www.ramseysolutions.com . Read the Original article here. .

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