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Andrew Freed turned one condo into a rental property portfolio that makes him $10,000 per month! Just four years ago, Andrew had little to his name—around $50,000 and a $200,000 condo. That’s what a decade of working had gotten him, but to Andrew, it was a sign he wasn’t doing enough. Like most real estate investors, Andrew stumbled upon Rich Dad Poor Dad and made an immediate change that would propel him to financial freedom. Four years later, he’s there—quitting his job and going full-time into real estate.

How did he do it? Simple. “Recycling” his money is what allowed Andrew to scale so quickly. A HELOC (home equity line of credit) on his condo gave him the money for his first small multifamily—a house hack that would help him live for free. With each new property, he’d get a new HELOC and use it to grow his portfolio even faster.

Now, Andrew has a sizable real estate portfolio, personally paying him six figures a year, while he focuses on the next property. If you want to quit your job and give real estate your all, you can do what Andrew did, recycling your money to build your wealth—and you can start with just a condo!

Dave:
This investor grew his portfolio to 25 properties and was able to quit his job in less than four years by repeating the same real estate strategy over and over. You do need to identify the right type of real estate investing for your goals and your market, and it’s totally okay if that takes some time and some trial and error. But once you do that, once you have it, you can basically execute that one deal, type to perfection, rinse and repeat, all the way to game changing wealth. Today’s guests proved that this is possible in the Boston area, and he did it in the current market, not during that crazy pandemic era. So let’s find out how.
Hey everyone, I’m Dave Meyer, head of real Estate investing here at BiggerPockets. Today on the show we’re bringing you an investor story with Andrew Freed who invested Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Andrew was previously on the Real Estate Rookie podcast back in March of 2023, but I wanted to bring him on this show because he’s progressed a lot in the last two years, but he’s done it by doing pretty much the same thing. So we’re going to talk to Andrew about why he primarily buys rental properties in the six to 12 unit range, why almost all of his deals are with two to four partners and how he achieved his goal of quitting his day job to invest full time. Andrew is a total open book with all of his deals and numbers, so there’s a lot to learn in this conversation. Let’s get into it. Andrew, welcome to the BiggerPockets podcast. Thanks for being here.

Andrew:
I’m excited to be here. Thank you so much.

Dave:
Yeah, absolutely. And I know you’ve been on our rookie podcast or sister podcast here, but for those who didn’t listen to that episode, maybe just give us a little bit of background. Tell us about yourself.

Andrew:
So like many people here, I went after the American Dream. I get a good education, get a good job, get a nice swanky condo in a city, make six figures. I essentially did that. I did that all through my twenties. And after I did that, I came home and at the end of the day I realized I was paycheck to paycheck. Yeah, maybe I had six months, maybe I have 12 months of reserves, but at the end of the day, I had to go crawling back to that job, and that ultimately scared the living hell out of me. So come around covid when I ran out of vices to do video games, to play movies to watch, I really had to come face to face with is this the life I really wanted to live? And the answer to that was absolutely no. So thankfully I found Rich Dad, poor Dad at that time, and that opened my eyes to the power of real estate. And at that point I looked at my net worth, which is about $250,000 at that point,
$200,000 of which came from that one bedroom condo I completely forgot about. It literally took me 10 years to save up $50,000. And at that point I realized maybe there’s something to this real estate thing. So I literally just fomo. I took a HELOC on my one bedroom condo for $200,000 and I utilized that to start buying multifamily specifically in Worcester, Massachusetts. So I completely uprooted my life in Boston. I knew absolutely nobody in Worcester, Massachusetts, which about 45 minutes from Boston. And I decided to start buying MALS in that market where I started with House Hacks and I kind of moved on to joint ventures and kind of moved on to syndications and larger projects from there.

Dave:
Awesome. Well, I want to hear the fairytale story. So it started in Worcester. I’m sort of familiar with the area why Worcester, just Boston too expensive or

Andrew:
So when you’re planning on investing and creating a real estate portfolio, you really have to come up with a thesis. And my thesis was I wanted to buy multifamily, and it’s way easier to buy multifamily when there’s a lot of that asset class in the market. So the way I really decided on Worcester was I looked at it at all the markets in Massachusetts had a lot of Malteses, Brockton, Massachusetts, new Bedford, Massachusetts, Worcester, Providence, Rhode Island, had a lot of mals, Manchester, New Hampshire had a lot of malteses. So I looked at all the markets and out of all those markets, I felt like Worcester had the best fundamentals. It was one of the largest growing cities in Massachusetts in New England, but not only that, 30 to 40% of the housing stock are multifamilies.

Speaker 3:
Yeah.

Andrew:
So it’s way easier to get that asset class if there’s a plethora of that asset class.

Dave:
I’m so glad you said that because I think a lot of people overlook that element of picking and selecting markets. You need fundamentals of the economy, you need job growth, all that stuff. But there are markets, as you’ve alluded to, where the concept of a duplex or a chip, Lex is basically non-existent. I actually invest in a market where it’s almost impossible to find something bigger than a duplex. I started my career investing in three unit, four unit buildings and I can’t find any there, and that changes my approach and strategy, so I really appreciate you said that, but I’m curious, so the multifamily approach sounds like you were doing small multifamily, right? Sort of the still residential four units or fewer. Was that where you went first?

Andrew:
I started with house hacking. I started with house sacking, residential properties two through four unit. Then I graduated to five to 10 plexes commercial Maltese, primarily residential. And then from there, then I graduated to buying portfolios a plethora of 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 units buying 10, 12 of them all in one foul swoop.

Dave:
Just tell me a little bit about how you financed that first deal. You had a solid net worth $250,000, nothing to sneeze at. Most of it was locked up right into a condo. You said you he locked, or how did you wind up doing that first deal?

Andrew:
I wound up doing that first deal by utilizing a heloc, a home line of credit on my one bedroom condo, and it ended up taking out 85% of the value in the form of a HELOC and got about $200,000 out of it. And when I utilized that heloc, I want people to keep in mind the concept of return on net worth. I had about $250,000 of net worth, $200,000 of which was locked up in this one bedroom condo that’s providing a 0% return on an annual basis. So my hypothesis was why don’t I take this $200,000 and actually put in the assets that can provide me an eight, nine, 10% return. Meanwhile, I’m borrowing it a three out of four. That was during covid, right? So with the simple concept of arbitrage, that’s really how I kind of built my net worth from there. And going back to your original question, how did I finance that health hack? I ended up financing it with a FHA loan. So I combined that with the heloc. So I took around 30 to $40,000 for my heloc and I used that combined with an FAKA loan, and I got a three unit in Worcester, Massachusetts for around $560,000.
I could rent two units for 3,200 $1,600 each, and I ended up living in the third for free, and my mortgage was $3,200. I ended up kind of breaking even on that property, but my savings rate went through the roof because I didn’t have to pay rent or overhead In that regard.

Dave:
With your rookie episode, you had gotten to a point where I think you had 24 units and eight properties. How long did it take you to get to that level of scale

Andrew:
To get to 24 units? It probably took me a good year and a half to two years of investing in real estate.

Dave:
That’s fast.

Andrew:
One thing I think people sleep on a lot of times is everybody knows about the house hack. It’s the easy way to reduce your living expenses to zero. But very few people talk about the heloc, and I recommend so many people prior to leaving your first house hack, get a HELOC on it because when it’s your primary residence, you can HELOC sometimes up to a hundred percent, so you can actually access that equity before you leave it and it becomes an investment property. Once it converts to an investment property, then your line of credit is limited to 75% of the value of the property greatly reducing your ability to leverage. So you asked, how did I do that? I ended up he locking my first house hack. I got another $75,000 heloc and I used that to buy a couple more house hacks as well.

Dave:
Okay, got it. And just for everyone to understand, HELOC stands for home equity line of credit. This is a way that you can access equity in properties without actually having to sell or doing a cash out refinance where you might be getting a different mortgage rate. And so I think for that reason alone, it’s a pretty attractive option right now because say you bought something during the pandemic and you have a three or 4% interest rate, you’ve built up a ton of equity in your property, which you want to leverage like Andrew’s talking about to go out and buy future properties, but you don’t want to give up that three or 4% mortgage, totally understandable,

Andrew:
Take

Dave:
Out a HELOC or consider talk to a lender about taking out a heloc. This is a way that you can borrow against your assets. So that’s a really great way to do it. And the other benefit of a HELOC that I love is you only pay interest when you’re using it. It’s called a revolving line of credit. And so let’s say you use a HELOC to finance a renovation on a new rental property, and then you’re going to refinance that. Sure you pay when you’ve drawn on that line of credit and you’re paying it, but when you go refinance that burr, you could repay off your HELOC and pay nothing for a time and then use it again in the future. And so this is a really good strategy that people can use and I think it’s going to become increasingly popular in the next few years because of that sort of dual advantage of allowing you to recycle your equity but not giving up historical mortgage rates.

Andrew:
And you bring up a really good point, and I just want people to be clear about interest rates do have a higher interest rate. You’re talking six, seven, 8%, but you really have to look at the loan holistically. And what do I mean by that? It’s like if 70% of your loan is at a three and 20% of the loan is at a seven, what is your blended interest rate? And is that blended interest rate better than what you can get from a refinance or is it not

Dave:
Right? That’s right.

Andrew:
So you kind of want to weigh those options or maybe a cashflow refinance makes sense. Maybe the blended rate of your current low mortgage rate combined with the HELOC makes sense. So these are the sort of calculations I utilize when I decide how am I going to recycle this equity to buy more property?

Dave:
Totally. And I think this is just one of the natural evolutions that has to take place because during covid or the years leading up to that, it was kind of a no-brainer to do a burn refi, right? Because rates were going down, so why wouldn’t you refinance and get a lower interest rate on your new property that is higher equity? That was a no-brainer. Now in our new upside era that we’re in, you just need to think about this stuff a little bit more critically. As Andrew said, there’s options now there’s just different options and there’s different ways to do it, but it’s not just as cut and dry. Just do the bird, do the refi every single time. Alright, we do need to take a quick break to hear from our sponsors, but we’ll be back with Andrew Freed right after this. If you’re in real estate like I am, you don’t want to lose deals juggling multiple tools. That’s where simply comes in. A true all-in-one CRM designed for real estate investors like us. With s simply, you can connect with motivated sellers through calls, texts, emails, or direct mail. Plus, you can enjoy free skip tracing, cash buyer searches, customizable websites, and automated drip campaigns that turn cold leads into successful deals. Head over to ssim.com/biggerpockets now to start your free trial and get 50% off your first month. Once again, that’s R-E-S-I-M pli.com/biggerpockets.
Welcome back to the BiggerPockets podcast. We are here with investor Andrew free talking about how he scaled his portfolio in the last couple of years in the Boston area. Let’s catch up then. So you were at eight properties in 24 units. Obviously investing conditions have changed pretty dramatically. What have you been up to in the last two years?

Andrew:
So as we alluded to earlier, I went from 24 units and now I’m at 300. People are like, how do you make that dramatic growth? And I’ll give you some catalyst that really brought me to that level. So the first catalyst that really brought me to that level was becoming an investor focused agent while having my W2, ultimately I didn’t need the Asian income. It was ice on the cake. It allowed me to buy more real estate. But ultimately, why did I become an investor focused agent? I became an investor focused agent to find a mentor.

Speaker 3:
The

Andrew:
Broker of that agency has over 300 doors, and I wanted to leverage him as much as I could. So I decided I’m going to provide him value in the form of bringing him commissions and if I bring commissions that he is going to feel a need to help me along my journey. So that was number one. I found the mentor and I found ways to provide a value in the form of commissions. Number two, I started the largest real estate meetup in Worcester. Nice. Through that meetup I found capital partners, I found deals, I found my current partner. We were me and him own hundreds of units together that really allowed me to grow to the next scale. And lastly, the catalyst that really pushed me to the next level, and thanks to BiggerPockets for this was being on podcasts, providing value on social media, and just putting yourself out there and operating in the light. Ultimately, people aren’t going to know what you’re doing if you operate in the dark, so it’s extremely important to put out there your wins, but also your losses.

Dave:
Yeah, absolutely. Well, I’m glad you said that because wins and losses, it is important to sort of build credibility. Can you maybe give us some examples of how you did this? What’s a property that you bought when you sort of stepped away from using your own equity and started using Capital Partners externally?

Andrew:
I’ll talk about a deal first that I bird into three other deals. It was with my own capital, but I recycled the money over and over and over again. So me and my partner now, Zach Gray, we ended up buying this five unit in Worcester, Massachusetts, up Sory about for $650,000, three units in the area sold for $600,000. This was a deal all day and it was right on the MLS. So what did we decide to do? We decided to put an offer out day one, right when it was on the MLS, within two days of being on the MLS, we had it under contract. That particular property, the current rent roll on it was around $3,500 proforma or market rents on the property. The ability to bring the rents up was about $9,000.

Dave:
Oh wow.

Andrew:
Okay. Yeah. So it was bought a big upside, right? But the downside is the cost was six 50 and the monthly income was 3,500. If anybody knows anything about commercial debt and debt service coverage ratio, you can’t get a loan at that 75% loan to value. It is impossible. Right?

Dave:
That’s tough.

Andrew:
But what did we do? Thankfully I had a mentor and he guided me through this process and he advised me rather than do a conventional finance and go to these portfolio lenders, these small local credit unions and asked them for construction money, and when you ask them for construction money, they do it before appraisal and they do an after appraisal and that after appraisal takes to account proforma or market rents.

Speaker 3:
So

Andrew:
That allowed us to get a loan based off the proforma rents only bringing 25% down. We ended up bringing this property from 3,500 revenue to nine grand in revenue over the course of six, seven months.

Dave:
So not bad. Yeah, it’s quick.

Andrew:
We ended up bringing the value from six 50 to $1.1 million. So we had a ton of equity, but we wanted to access that equity. So what did we do? We ended up going to the bank that gave us the first lead and we got a rental line of credit for the equity up to 75%. So that bank gave us a line of credit for $156,000, more or less. All of the money we put in the deal, we put about one 60. Right. Fantastic opportunity. What do we do with that money? We took the one 60 and we ended up using that combined with hard money to buy a nine unit in Westward Rhode Island with four gutted units and five occupied units. We bought it for $715,000 with hard money. So we only brought 10% of the purchase price. We ended up putting around $220,000 into it. We got the units rented, we brought the market rents up to 14 grand, and we refied that at $1.52 million.

Dave:
Wow. Oh my God. So yeah, I can’t keep up with your math, but you built what, half a million, three quarters of a million dollars in equity just off those two deals alone.

Andrew:
And I split that 50 50 with my partner. So that was only 80 grand for me. So I built half a million dollars in net worth off 80 grand within a year. Right. Wow. And then the next, no, what did I do with this property? So we ended up doing a cash or refinance for 1.52 million. We got about $230,000 out of that. Me and my partner ended up transitioning that $230,000 into a 21 unit in Lowell, Massachusetts that we just closed on this week.

Dave:
Wow, congrats. And so all this has been done in this higher interest rate environment?

Andrew:
Yes.

Dave:
And did you have any qualms? Did you worry that the market was going to crash or this was bad timing?

Andrew:
I did not whatsoever. Right. Because ultimately I’m investing in high cap rate markets, right? I’m investing in assets that pro forma, once I’m done stabilizing the asset, have an eight, nine, 10% cap rate. So 10% cash on cash return. So if I’m borrowing at a six or a seven, that asset far exceeds the debt. I would get more worried if I was in a low cap rate mark, you’re talking a Boston or a Phoenix where the cap rate’s a four or a five and borrowing it a six or a seven, then the assets literally operating in the negative, right?

Speaker 3:
Yeah.

Andrew:
So the way I really got around the high interest rates was I operated in high cap rate markets in tertiary markets, outside high growth cities. Think Providence, think Boston.

Dave:
That makes a lot of sense to me, and I think hopefully everyone’s following this, but in certain markets, especially when you’re evaluating deals on cap rate, and this is just a way of measuring how much you’re paying for a property based on how much cashflow that potential it has to generate. And some of these markets, Phoenix, the fastest growing markets, because they’re generally considered low risk, have lower cap rates, which means they’re more expensive. And generally speaking, when you have a cap rate that is lower than your interest rate on your loan, that is negative leverage. You don’t want to have that. But Andrew basically said if you go into these tertiary or smaller markets where the cap rates are higher than the interest rate, it reduces your risk and it allows you to sort of operate and grow in a way that is frankly just much more challenging in these lower cap markets.
Right now, Andrew, I want to talk to you a little bit more about this sweet spot you seem to have found with multifamily right after this break. So everyone, stick with us. We’ll be right back if you want to attend BB Con, but you are worried that you missed out on the best rates. I’ve got great news. We just opened up a surprise Early bird extension through the end of April. BP Con 2025 is in Vegas this year at Caesar’s Palace from October 5th through seventh. And the early bird savings will get you a hundred dollars off the regular registration price. And if you haven’t been to BP Con before, there’s so much value to it. People are doing deals there. The networking is top notch. Plus you’ll learn from some of the best investors in the industry. This year’s agenda features over 60 focus sessions across four specialized tracks, so you can completely customize your learning experience. For example, our advanced and passive investor track includes sessions on portfolio management, scaling your business, and transitioning to larger deals. This year actually be giving one of the keynotes. So if you love this podcast, which I hope you do, you won’t want to miss that. Head to biggerpockets.com/conference now to learn more and get your early bird discount before May 1st.
Welcome back to the BiggerPockets podcast. I’m here with investor Andrew Freed talking about how he scaled very rapidly from just owning a single condo a couple of years ago to hundreds of doors that he manages and owns. Now, Andrew, before the break, you were talking about how you’ve really effectively recycled capital, which is awesome, but you’ve also seem to have honed in on sort of a sweet spot of commercial multifamily more than four units, but it’s not huge, at least right now. It doesn’t sound like you’re buying these 200 unit deals. Do you do that intentionally? And if so, why?

Andrew:
So the sweet spot that we’re really playing in is the multi space between two and 50 units. So the reason why we like these smaller assets is because first of all, there’s not as much competition. These deals are way too small for the big players. Additionally, these deals are really easy to stabilize. It’s way easier to stabilize a six eight PLX than it is a 50 a hundred unit. You can get that stabilized in six months versus a hundred, 200 that’s going to take you a couple years. So what does that mean? That it means that you can have a velocity of capital. You can keep utilizing that money quicker and quicker and quicker. And the last sweet spot that we really have been playing in that’s been very effective is buying scattered site portfolios, right? Buying 10, 12 properties all at once. And because we’re buying in bulk, just like you go to BJ’s and you buy toilet paper, you get in bulk. It’s the same with property. If I’m buying 10 properties, I’m expecting a 20 to 30% discount for buying all those

Dave:
All

Andrew:
At once. So that’s kind of the sweet spot we’re playing in. And we also have started to flip, but we are only flipping multifamily. The reason for that is because it allows multiple exit strategies. So if we can’t sell it for the price want, we could toss a renter and then it still works as a buy and hold rental and we could simply refinance most of the cash out.

Dave:
I’m curious, Andrew, this is a lot of work. So are you doing this all yourself?

Andrew:
So currently me and my partner, we own a property management company. We self-manage around 250 doors. So it was a crap dental work come around the start of 2022. I think we had about 150 doors that me and my partner and we had one employee, and I was doing this on top of being an investor focused agent on top of having my W2, I didn’t leave my W until June of 2024. It was a lot of work. But since then, we’ve increased our staff from one to around 16 employees.

Dave:
Oh wow, okay.

Andrew:
So we have a really, really strong staff that allow us to kind of stabilize these assets ourselves. Real estate is made in three ways. The debt on the property, the operations, and the price and operations is really important. You can turn a really good deal bad or you can turn a bad deal with solid and good operations, right?

Dave:
Totally. Everyone always says you make money real estate on the buy, right? I think you need to caveat that you get the potential to make money from real estate on the buy, but you actually make the money by operating that program successfully. Sure, you’ve seen this too, but I’ve seen a lot of people buy good deals and run ’em into the ground.

Andrew:
Totally.

Dave:
Or you see someone buy a thin deal, run it effectively and manage to turn it into a pretty solid return. It’s not just as simple as getting a good deal. It’s an important component for sure, but as you said, there’s a lot more to it.

Andrew:
A perfect example of that, I bought this duplex in Killingly, Connecticut for $160,000. We were playing on renovating it completely. We budget around $80,000. We come to realize the foundation is straight messed up, and our renovation budget went from 80 K to one 20, and we were planning on selling these duplexes of $320,000. We were going to make no money on this deal. So this is an exact reason why operations is so important. So what do we decide to do? We actually looked at the property and we were like, Hey, if we actually reconfigure this to a single family, we’ll get a better price per unit, and by the way, our renovation costs will go down. Now we’re not doing two bathrooms now. We’re not doing two kitchens. So we ended up doing that. We ended up bringing our renovation costs down to one 10, and we got the ARV from three 20 to four 50. And that’s just a prime example of how operations can turn a bad deal. Good.

Dave:
Yeah, it works both ways for sure. If you’re good at this, you’ll find a way to make it work. If you’re bad at it, you could find a way to destroy what should be a really good deal.

Andrew:
Totally.

Dave:
At what point did you quit your job? You said at the beginning of the show that you had been working in corporate America, then you took on being an investor friendly agent. Can you give us just a timeline here of when you stopped working sort of more traditional corporate job?

Andrew:
So I’ll be honest with you, it was really, really challenging leaving my job. I worked at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard as a project manager. So there was a certain level of identity associated with that that I had to escape, right? Additionally, my job paid me one 30 a year and I was probably working 10 to 15 hours a week. It was so freaking easy,

Speaker 3:
But

Andrew:
At a certain point, it came to the point where my activities in real estate from a dollar per hour perspective completely outweigh the money I was making at my W2.
So I put it off as long as possible to leave my W2, but what really pushed me over the edge was going to a mastermind. I think I went there in March, 2024, and the host asked the question to the table. He’s like, what’s one thing you can do that’s holding you back that would bring your business to the next level? I ended up getting on stage and I’m taking the mic and I said, quitting my job. And the host, he’s like, so as of now, we’re going to set a deadline for you that you have to quit your job by this date, and if you don’t quit your job by this date, we’re going to shave that beer to yours. And then after that, the crowd of 500 people proceeded to yell, quit your job, quit your job, quit your job. No one can say

Dave:
No to that level of chanting, you just have to give it.

Andrew:
No, it was such peer pressure. I literally felt like I was naked in a dream, not have everybody staring at me. It was so awkward. But that ended up pushing me to take the leap to leave my job in June. And since leaving my job, I probably forex my annual income.

Dave:
Tell me a little bit about that, because there’s a big debate about how long you should work in a corporate job, when you should quit and go full-time into real estate. So can you just tell me a little bit about where your income comes from now? Because it sounds like you do a couple of different things. You have a property management company, you do your own deals, you’re an agent. What does your income look like?

Andrew:
So ultimately, I was very strong on the defensive side, but I was also very strong on the offensive side. So I actually moved into a house hack that the three unit, I rent two units for two grand, and I live in the third unit. It’s a three bedroom, one bath. I rent two bedrooms and I live in the third. Oh,

Dave:
Wow.

Andrew:
So I literally bring in 5,500 in revenue on that three unit property, and my mortgage is 3,200 bucks.

Dave:
That’s pretty good.

Andrew:
So my living expenses are really, really, really low. I probably spend four to five grand a month on probably food’s my largest expense. So I didn’t allow life creep to creep up. I mean, ultimately I’m a multimillionaire. I don’t have to be living in a house app with roommates, but I do it because I see the long-term vision. And to answer your question, my other income comes from cashflow. I probably get nine to $10,000 in monthly cashflow combined from my own personal rentals that I built over the years and combined with some of the investments part with my investors, I also get buyer agent commissions or acquisition fees for deals that we close, right? That’s another form of income. I’m an investor focused agent, even though I’ve kind of taken a step back from that. So those are primarily the sources of my income.

Dave:
Thank you for sharing that because I think a lot of times what happens is people quit their corporate job, they tell everyone they’re quitting, they’re going full-time into real estate, and that means some combination of cashflow and maybe working as an agent or a loan officer, and that’s totally fine. There is nothing wrong with that, but sometimes when you’re doing that, you might be working 40 hours as an agent. It sounds like you’re not in that bucket, Andrew. But the reason I’m asking the question is I think it’s really important when people say, I quit my job, I’m working in real estate. What does that look like? How many hours a week do you spend in each of these different buckets? But it sounds like it’s really cool for you. You can spend the majority of your time on your own investments and then syndicating other deals to some LPs that you have. Other investors.

Andrew:
So let me be clear. Syndications are not great at building wealth. They are great at building network capital. When it comes to a syndication, the way it’s usually set up is the investor has to get paid first before you get paid, right?

Dave:
That’s right.

Andrew:
And that more or less means that you’re not getting paid until year three or five are the business plan. So you’re essentially working for free a lot of times. So syndications are fantastic for deals that you simply don’t have the cash to take down, but they’re also fantastic for building network capital to build credibility and also allow you to raise capital in some of these more profitable deals, maybe a six or plx. You’re talking about a fix and flip. So I think people should be clear. Syndications are not a get rich quick scheme. They’re a get rich slow scheme.

Dave:
Yeah, it’s a business. It’s really a business that you’re operating similar to other operations intensive businesses. You need investor relations, you need to do property management. It’s a different thing. It’s a great thing if you want to do it. But as Andrew said, there are trade-offs to this and you need to consider pretty carefully if it’s right for you at this point in your investing career, and it sort of fits into your overall portfolio strategy. Andrew, this has been a lot of fun. Great lessons for everyone here. Before we get out of here though, just tell me a little bit, what are your goals for 2025? What are you looking to do next?

Andrew:
So my goal for 2025 is I want to close on 200 more units.

Speaker 3:
Nice.

Andrew:
I think we’ve already closed on around 120. We have another 30 or 40 in the pipeline. So we are way ahead of schedule. I’m also planning, I want to travel to 12 different places. I want to help 10,000 people reach. Financial independence is probably a 10 year goal, and I want to travel six months out of the year, and I only want to work two hours a day. That’s my ultimate vision of 10 years from now. And that’s really why I am working on growing, building my team and kind of building a self-sufficient business so I could really live the dream life that I want to because ultimately my life sounds great and I did reach financial independence, but it does come with a lot of responsibility and a lot of time commitment, and I’m trying to build systems to kind of get out of that down the road.

Dave:
I love that. I mean, I wrote about this in my book, start with Strategy, but I feel like having that clear of a vision that you have is sort of the most important part of building a real estate portfolio. What you do to actually achieve that goal becomes so much easier if you know exactly what you’re trying to accomplish. Because you could say, alright, yeah, I should syndicate for the next couple of years. I should own a property management company for the next couple of years. And that will, even though property management is a loss leader for me right now, that means in a couple of years I’ll be working two hours a day and I’ll be able to travel six months a year. And it makes those decisions so much easier rather than obsessing about the fact like, oh, I’m losing $500 a month. Well, it’s like, yeah, that’s fine, because it’s getting me to this longer term goal.

Speaker 3:
Totally.

Dave:
It’s easier said than done too. Having that clearer vision, I don’t know about you. It took me a while to really nail down what I wanted to achieve with real estate and not just try and grow it all costs and scale in every which way. Well, thank you so much, Andrew, for being here. We really appreciate it.

Andrew:
Thank you.

Dave:
And thank you all so much for listening to this episode of the BiggerPockets podcast. We appreciate each and every one of you. If you enjoy this episode, make sure to leave us a review either on Apple or Spotify or give us a thumbs up on YouTube. We’ll see you all next time.

 

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What might be the top three cash flow markets for investors in 2025? I not only looked at price and rent data to find out, but I also narrowed down results by overall job growth. 

I wouldn’t want to invest in a shrinking market, no matter how good the cash flow was. So without further ado, here are three of the best markets for cash flow that are also seeing solid job growth.

El Paso, TX

el paso tx

Metrics

  • Median price: $234,200
  • Median rent: $1,427
  • Rent-to-price ratio: 0.61%
  • Five-year job growth: 8.7%

El Paso continues to see steady job growth in the military, energy, and logistics sectors. It’s also one of the most affordable cities in the United States, with a cost of living 12% below the national average. The metro also has one of the highest rent-to-price ratios for a city with above-the-median five-year job growth.

Columbia, SC

columbia sc

Metrics

  • Median price: $249,700
  • Median rent: $1,494
  • Rent-to-price ratio: 0.60%
  • Five-year job growth: 7.5%

Columbia, the capital of South Carolina, has an economy supported by the local government, the military (Fort Jackson), healthcare, education (the University of South Carolina), and manufacturing. 

The vacancy rate is about 10.4%, which is higher than El Paso’s 7.7%, but this is probably due to the transient nature of Columbia’s tenant base (students and military). If I were investing in this market, I’d want to make sure I purchased the property just before (or during) leasing season.

Tuscaloosa, AL

tuscaloosa al

Metrics

  • Median price: $248,600
  • Median rent: $1,536
  • Rent-to-price ratio: 0.62%
  • Five-year job growth: 2.4%

Tuscaloosa may not have as much job growth as the other metros on the list, but a look underneath the surface reveals good fundamentals. Tuscaloosa had a five-year population growth of 10.2% (national average is 3.1%) and five-year household growth of 16.1% (national average is 6.2%). This is in part due to the growing student population

In fact, according to the University of Alabama’s website, “With students from all 67 Alabama counties, all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and 95 countries, UA is educating and graduating more students than any college in the state, awarding more than 9,000 degrees over the past year.” And their 2024 fall enrollment was 40,846, surpassing 40,000 for the first time.

Unbeknownst to many unfamiliar with the region, the very first major Mercedes-Benz plant outside of Germany was founded in Tuscaloosa in 1995. According to Mercedes-Benz’s page on Tuscaloosa, the factory employs about 6,000 people and produces about 260,000 vehicles per year.

Tuscaloosa’s economy is supported by jobs in the government, logistics, manufacturing, health, and education sectors, all of which are growing. The only sector shrinking is the “professional and business services” sector (also known as white-collar jobs, and why Tuscaloosa’s job growth isn’t as strong as the other cities). 

This isn’t necessarily a bad thing. All it means is that Tuscaloosa is primarily a blue-collar and university economy and serves as the industrial backbone of western Alabama.

Honorable Mention: Ocala, FL

florida home

Metrics

  • Median price: $259,900
  • Median rent: $1,636
  • Rent-to-price ratio: 0.63%
  • Five-year job growth: 13.3%

Ocala is a small but growing market. The majority of the jobs here are in government, healthcare, and manufacturing. It also helps that Ocala is located in inland Florida. This reduces the impact hurricanes have here, and Ocala is likely to have lower insurance costs over time than cities directly on the coast. 

My only concern as an investor is that there has been an equally strong growth in housing supply, and the vacancy rate sits at 12.9%. If I were to invest here, I would need to rely on my property manager to ensure I buy in the right neighborhood and have a property that attracts the right tenants. (But this argument also applies to investing in any market.)

What Else to Look For in Cash Flow Markets

Investing out of state can be daunting if you’ve never done it before, especially if you’re unfamiliar with the market. So I asked Zach Lemaster, CEO of Rent to Retirement, what his advice was for researching the best out-of-state markets, what to avoid, and how to get started. His response:

The most successful investors strategically choose the right market to invest in based on their goals, instead of only focusing on their local market because it feels comfortable.

The best place to start is to be very intentional in mapping out your investment criteria. I recommend identifying three markets that generally fit your criteria. Next, you must connect with local professionals that are familiar with the market to learn more intricate details of each market. 

Many markets can vary dramatically between favorable and unfavorable neighborhoods to invest in within a few short miles. That is why leveraging local knowledge is absolutely essential when exploring a new market. 

Once you’ve narrowed your search and identified properties that fit your criteria, take action to actually acquire the properties so you don’t fall into the perpetual analysis paralysis that prevent so many from accomplishing their goals. 

Finally, be meticulous in tracking performance. 

You never fully know a market until you actually invest there. Don’t be afraid to go back to the drawing board if your initial market choice is not performing as expected. Remember, real estate investing is a lifelong journey where we are always refining our goals and criteria!

Look to Rent to Retirement for Investment Properties

As you can see, a lot of work goes into finding, buying, and managing out-of-state properties. If you’d like help with this process, Rent to Retirement offers hands-off investment properties (here’s a quick list of them) with healthy cash flow in key markets.



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The whole real estate world relies on land. Without land, there is no real estate. Yet, land acquisition remains one of the most overlooked investment opportunities. As economic conditions shift and new market trends emerge, investors who understand the fundamentals of land acquisition can easily capitalize on high-potential opportunities. 

Why Land is a Compelling Investment Right Now

Housing demand is growing against the backdrop of government incentives and zoning changes. Here’s an in-depth look at these factors. 

Growing housing demand

The demand for housing in 2025 is intensifying due to factors such as population growth, urban expansion, and persistent housing shortages in many metropolitan areas. This heightened demand has led developers to actively seek land for residential projects, thereby increasing the value of well-located parcels.? This is an obvious opportunity.

Population growth and urban expansion

Over the past decade, the U.S. population has grown by approximately 7.6%, contributing significantly to the housing deficit. Urban centers like New York City have experienced a 6.55% population increase, leading to the addition of 238,000 apartments—8% of the city’s housing stock—over the past 10 years. Similarly, Texas cities such as Houston and Austin have issued 144,000 and 136,000 building permits, respectively, reflecting their rapid growth and the corresponding need for more housing. 

Persistent housing shortages

Despite increased construction efforts, the U.S. faces a housing supply gap of nearly 3.8 million units as of 2024. This shortfall is particularly acute in regions experiencing swift population growth and urbanization. For instance, the South has the largest housing gap by number of units (1.15 million), while the Northeast has the largest scaled housing gap relative to total construction.

Impact on land values 

The combination of growing demand and limited supply has led to significant property value increases, especially in suburban and regional areas. The ongoing population growth, urban expansion, and housing shortages are driving developers to actively seek land for residential projects, thereby enhancing the value of strategically located parcels. 

Government incentives and zoning changes

In 2025, numerous municipalities are revising zoning laws and implementing government incentives to encourage higher-density housing, mixed-use developments, and sustainable projects. These regulatory changes are enhancing the value of specific land parcels, thereby presenting prime investment opportunities.?

Zoning reforms promoting higher-density and mixed-use developments

Cities are increasingly adopting zoning reforms to address housing shortages and urban sprawl.  For example, Charlotte, North Carolina, implemented a Unified Development Ordinance (UDO) in June 2023, allowing multifamily housing in areas previously designated for single-family homes and emphasizing sustainable development practices. This shift encourages higher-density and mixed-use developments, aligning with the city’s vision for a more sustainable urban environment.

Government incentives and legislative actions

At the federal level, the Opportunity Zones program continues to evolve. In 2025, discussions about modernizing and renewing Opportunity Zones legislation are underway, with the aim of extending and enhancing the incentives for investments in designated areas. Such legislative efforts are designed to stimulate economic development and can significantly impact land values in targeted regions.

Impact on land values and investment opportunities

These zoning reforms and government incentives can substantially increase the value of certain land parcels. By allowing higher-density and mixed-use developments, previously underutilized or restricted areas become more attractive for investment. Investors who strategically acquire land in these regions can benefit from the appreciation in land value, driven by enhanced development potential and increased demand.

In summary, the proactive measures taken by municipalities and governments in revising zoning laws and offering incentives are creating favorable conditions for land investment. Staying informed about these regulatory changes is crucial for investors aiming to identify and capitalize on emerging opportunities in the real estate market.

Emerging Trends

Urban infill development

As suburban expansion slows in certain regions, developers are increasingly focusing on underutilized or vacant land within existing urban centers. This approach addresses housing shortages and leverages existing infrastructure—roadways, potable water, sewer, electrical, natural gas, etc.  

With horizontal land development costs skyrocketing, infill opportunities are better able to compete where higher land basis traditionally made it difficult. Also, the resurgence in demand for housing near urban centers has led to a renewed interest in infill projects.

Build-to-rent (BTR) communities

The BTR market is experiencing significant growth, with over 110,000 single-family rental homes under construction across the U.S. This surge is driven by high mortgage rates and rising home prices, making homeownership less accessible. The BTR market has slowed dramatically over the past couple of years because its funding sources are heavily impacted by interest rates, and when interest rates increased rapidly, many projects were put on hold. 

Now that rates are trending downward, look for BTR to return in a big way.  Developers are responding by providing rental homes that offer more space and premium amenities to meet increasing demand.

Tech-driven site selection

Advancements in data analytics, artificial intelligence (AI), and geographic information systems (GIS) are transforming land assessment processes. Investors capable of leveraging these new tools to identify land opportunities more accurately and efficiently should have a competitive advantage. AI-powered tools enable developers to evaluate potential sites with greater precision by analyzing vast datasets, including GIS information, to forecast market trends, property prices, and buyer behavior.

Infrastructure and transit-oriented development

Transportation improvements, such as new highways, rail extensions, and transit hubs, enhance the desirability of adjacent land parcels. Often, municipalities will also look to up-zone (allow for higher and better use zoning classifications) land immediately adjacent to new infrastructure projects since they want to see higher property tax revenues to offset the upfront costs of expansion. 

Potable water and sewer infrastructure expansions can also cause raw land values to appreciate rapidly, creating opportunities for investors who act quickly to position themselves in the path of growth. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021 expanded support for transit-oriented development projects, encouraging new housing creation while bolstering public transit.

These trends underscore the dynamic nature of land investment in 2025, highlighting opportunities that align with urban revitalization, evolving housing preferences, sustainability goals, technological innovations, and infrastructure developments.

What to Expect Moving Forward

The land acquisition landscape is poised for continued transformation. Investors should anticipate increased competition for well-located parcels, evolving regulatory environments, and new financing mechanisms tailored to land deals. Those who stay informed, leverage market trends, and conduct thorough due diligence will be best positioned to seize the opportunities ahead.

For those considering land investment, now is the time to act. As land continues to appreciate and development opportunities expand, strategic acquisitions can provide both short-term gains and long-term wealth-building potential. Whether your goal is to develop, hold, or reposition land assets, the future of land acquisition is bright with opportunity.

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Ask one person; we’re already deep into a recession. Ask someone else; the economy’s fine—just don’t check your 401(k). 

Truth is, whether we’re in a recession, heading toward one, or dodging it by a thread, many short-term rental investors are asking the same thing: What kind of STR market holds up when money gets tight? 

Now, I’m not here to argue inflation stats or get political. That’s not my lane. What I am here to do is walk you through a few markets that are either tried-and-true mid-tier vacation gems or rising stars that are quickly earning their stripes, according to actual data, not hot takes. So, whether you’re already hosting or just shopping for your first property, this information helps you build something that lasts, whether we’re in a recession or not. 

We use STR Data Expert, AirDNA, and Zillow’s median home pricing data to look further into these markets. AirDNA has a market score that ranks areas on several criteria to form a score from 1 to 100, with one being the lowest (Park City, UT) or 100 being the cream of the crop (Joshua Tree, CA). All data is shown up or down year over year. 

What Makes a Market Recession-Proof for STRs?

Drive-to destinations near major cities

When people stop flying, they start driving. Locations one to four hours from large metros tend to thrive during economic dips. Think weekend getaways from Atlanta, Dallas, or Washington, D.C.

Low cost of entry

Lower home prices mean less debt and better cash-on-cash returns, which becomes even more critical when interest rates or lending tighten.

Consistent, year-round demand

Markets near national parks, college towns, or military bases stay busy regardless of season or economic conditions.

Diversified demand

Markets that attract both tourists and mid-term guests, like travel nurses, remote workers, or relocations, tend to outperform single-use vacation zones.

Top STR Markets to Consider if a Recession Hits

1. Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge, TN

AirDNA score: 89/100

Median home price (Zillow): $461,306 (? 5.9%)

STR data:

  • Annual revenue: $71,600 (? 5%)
  • Occupancy: 60% (? 5%)
  • ADR: $361.59 (? 9%)
  • RevPAR: $214.64 (? 4%)

Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge are classic recession-proof STR markets. The Smoky Mountains attract visitors year-round, and people will always find money for Dollywood, mountain views, and hot tubs. 

The trick here? Avoid the middle:

  • One-bedrooms earn around $42,000.
  • One-to-four-bedrooms only rise to ~$50,000.
  • However, four-to-eight bedrooms can earn $110,000+ with just a 2% occupancy dip in downturns, compared to higher dips in zero-to-four-bedroom places.

The bottom line: This market favors big family cabins or romantic one-bedroom getaways—nothing in between.

2. Broken Bow, OK

AirDNA score: 94/100

Median home price: $315,708 (? 5.9%)

STR data:

  • Annual revenue: $67,600 (? 12%)
  • Occupancy: 45% (? 5%)
  • ADR: $439.35 (? 7%)
  • RevPAR: $199.5 (? 1%)

Broken Bow continues to dominate with its proximity to Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Tulsa. It’s a luxury-cabin hotspot with relatively low home prices, making it a rare combo of high ADR and low acquisition cost. AirDNA has it highlighted as its only primary free market for users to get extra premium data on, so the cat may be out of the bag with this one.

Listings are up 8% year over year, which signals growth but also increased competition. Despite that, it remains a top pick for Texans, who represent four of the biggest STR feeder markets in the U.S. (Houston, San Antonio, Austin, and Dallas).

3. Red River Gorge, KY

AirDNA score: 97/100

Median home price (Stanton, KY): $167,000 (? 11%)

STR data:

  • Annual revenue: $40,300 (? 3%)
  • Occupancy: 50% (? 4 %)
  • ADR: $245 (? 4 %)
  • RevPAR: $121.7 (? 1%)

No STR in this region is expected to make over $100,000—but that’s the point. It’s a low-barrier, low-risk area where a well-designed $65,000-$75,000 annual revenue property can shine.

Red River Gorge is home to the Daniel Boone National Forest and Natural Bridge State Park, which hikers and climbers love. STRs here tend toward glamping, A-frames, and rustic-modern cabins.

Low competition, strong outdoor appeal, and year-round demand make this a smart play.

Here’s an example STR pulling $65K in revenue.

4. St. Petersburg, FL (non-luxury zones)

AirDNA score: 76/100

Median home price: $360,627 (? 3.8 %)

STR data:

  • Annual revenue: $55,600 (? 9%)
  • Occupancy: 65% (? 5%)
  • ADR: $297 (? 7%)
  • RevPAR: $193.6 (? 12%)

St. Pete has quietly become one of Florida’s most compelling Airbnb markets. With its walkable charm, art, beaches, and breweries, this city attracts strong ADRs, nearly $300 a night. 

Occupancy stays steady even in shoulder seasons, and RevPAR (revenue per available room) growth is outpacing the rest of Florida. It’s a sweet spot for higher-end STRs without the Miami-level price tag.

5. Boone, NC

AirDNA score: 53/100

Median home price: $473,790 (? 3%)

STR data:

  • Annual revenue: $44,300 (? 3%)
  • ADR: $303 (? 5%)
  • Occupancy: 47% (0%)
  • RevPAR: $142 (? 5%)

Boone is a small college town in the Blue Ridge Mountains, home to Appalachian State University. It’s had a rough year—it was hit hard by a hurricane and saw an 11% drop in active listings, but it remains a top destination for in-state travel, hiking, and wellness retreats.

Its dual appeal as a tourist and mid-term housing market (thanks to the university) makes it worth watching. Pricing may dip temporarily, offering a substantial entry opportunity.

6. Luray, VA

AirDNA score: 95/100

Median home price: $284,530 (? 5.3%)

STR data:

  • Annual revenue: $49,900 (? 5%)
  • Occupancy: 50% (? 2%)
  • ADR: $293 (? 5%)
  • RevPAR: $143.86 (? 4%)

Nestled near Shenandoah National Park, Luray is ideal for glamping and unplugged cabin retreats. It’s just a few hours from Washington D.C., Richmond, and Virginia Beach, making it a key escape route for East Coasters. Listings have risen by 5% YoY in this area, but demand should keep pace with the nearby attractions. 

7. Branson, MO

AirDNA score: 57/100

Median home price: $255,251 (? 3%)

STR data:

  • Annual revenue: $40,500 (? 6%)
  • Occupancy: 51% (? 1%)
  • ADR: $248.35 (? 5%)
  • RevPAR: $128.14 (? 6%)

Branson is often overlooked. It is a family-friendly Midwest staple with many theater shows, lake attractions, and a massive church/bus tour market. Listings surged 21% after Airbnb called it a top fall destination in 2023, positioning it as a Midwest destination to watch. Regulations have tightened here since the explosion, so do your due diligence in finding a location that works.

This isn’t a luxury destination—it’s about nostalgia and affordability. The ADR you can achieve varies, depending on the amenities and location you can provide. Hot tubs generate an average revenue of $33K/year, compared to pools, which create an average revenue of $22.8K/year. 

8. Logan, OH (Hocking Hills)

AirDNA score: 99/100

Median home price: $237,362 (? 3.3%)

STR data:

  • Annual revenue: $65,500 (? 7%)
  • Occupancy: 53% (? 1%)
  • ADR: $363.47 (? 6%)
  • RevPAR: $194 (? 6%)

Logan is the gateway to Hocking Hills, one of the Midwest’s most picturesque, Instagram-worthy spots. This market has exploded with nature-first, design-forward stays like The Cliffs at Hocking Hills and different A-frame clusters. High ADR, low hotel competition, and a nature-driven guest base make it a top-tier glamping or modern cabin location.

Ensure your design stands out—this market rewards aesthetics and unique stays.

9. College towns (across the U.S.)

College towns are mid-term rental machines. During downturns, professors relocate, families visit, and football season fills weekends.

Flexible zoning in smaller towns sometimes allows STRs to pivot into mid-term stays (30+ days) with little friction, making these an excellent recession hedge.

10. Suburban STR-friendly pockets near major cities

  • Austin: Dripping Springs, Bastrop
  • Dallas: Granbury, Waco
  • Atlanta: Blue Ridge, Helen
  • Los Angeles: Big Bear, Idyllwild

These spots are ideal for families downsizing vacations but still wanting to escape the city. They usually allow STRs when the big city bans them, and demand stays solid from urban escapees.

Look for “Dual Threat” Properties

Want real recession protection? Then stop thinking about your short-term rental as a one-trick pony. 

The most intelligent investors I know are buying dual-use properties: places that can crush it as a short-term rental but pivot seamlessly into mid-term housing if the market shifts. Think travel nurses, contractors, families between homes, or folks dealing with insurance claims. These guests don’t need a hot tub and a hammock—they need a clean, furnished space for 30+ days and will pay good money for it.

So, if tourism dips, your Airbnb doesn’t have to sit empty. You just switch gears, update your listing strategy, and keep the cash flowing. It’s like having a second safety net built into your property. That flexibility gives you room to breathe when people panic-list their homes on Zillow. 

The bottom line: Dual-use properties give you options—which, in uncertain markets, are everything.

Final Thoughts

Look, I’d love a crystal ball, just like everyone else, to see exactly where the market’s headed and what the next 12 months will look like. But here’s what I know: Uncertainty tends to hit luxury STR markets the hardest (sorry, Breckenridge). When people tighten their budgets, those high-end vacation rentals are often the first to feel it.

But don’t get it twisted; those aren’t the only markets that can win. Domestic travel has a proven track record of staying strong, even in a downturn. So, instead of chasing flash, focus on fundamentals. Look for drive-to destinations near major cities, areas with built-in attractions (nature, culture, college towns, etc.), and properties that give you the flexibility to pivot: short-term, mid-term, or somewhere in between. 

Recession-proofing your portfolio isn’t about playing defense. It’s about being smart with your offense.

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Home prices could weaken, bringing big bargains to patient buyers who’ve been sitting on the sidelines. The housing market is seeing some turbulence, even if it remains more stable than other parts of the economy. Inventory is rising, and sellers are in a tough position, with many buyers still waiting out the market. Stock sell-offs and tariffs are keeping fear high, and the housing market could freeze because of it.

Where is the housing market headed? We’re catching you up on all the data and big headlines in this April 2025 housing market update.

First up: inventory. A few years ago, there was none—now, we may have too much. More homes are hitting the market, which could spell trouble for sellers. With inflation fears and stock market uncertainty dragging down demand, prices may soften. Don’t worry, this isn’t another 2008, even though a certain delinquency chart would have you thinking so. We’re also hitting on the condo market and why more than half of condo sellers should prepare to accept an under-asking price…and this could be just the start.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts.

Listen to the Podcast Here

Read the Transcript Here

Dave:
Mortgage rates are dropping, inventory is rising. There are finally great buying opportunities for real estate, but tariffs and stock market selloffs could upend our entire economy. It’s been an absolutely crazy month. So we got to talk about what all this means for the housing market and what you should do next. This is our April, 2025 housing market update. What’s up everyone? This is Dave Meyer, head of real Estate investing at BiggerPockets. Today we’re going to break down what’s happening across the whole world of real estate investing. We’re going to do today’s show in three different parts. We’re going to discuss first how mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest level in several months, how rising inventory is driving us towards a nice buyer’s market. And we’ll also discuss slowing growth rates for sales prices and changing buyer demand. Then we’ll move on to part two where we’re going to talk about recent news that you’ve probably been hearing about and how all of that will affect real estate.
We’ll have, of course touch on tariffs and how that could spill into the real estate market. We’ll talk about some potential trouble that’s brewing in the condo market and we’ll talk about how mortgage delinquencies are starting to tick up and whether or not real estate investors should be concerned. Then in the last part three, I’ll give you my opinion on what this all means for real estate investors, what I’m doing in my own portfolio and strategies that you may want to consider in your own investing. So that’s the agenda. Let’s jump right into this April, 2025 housing market update. So the first metric that we need to cover is inventory. In a lot of ways, the story of 2025 in the housing market has really been about this steadily rising inventory because if you’ve been following the housing market for the last several years, you know that the defining characteristic has been really low inventory.
Even though mortgage rates have gone up and demand has pulled out of the market, the whole reason prices haven’t softened or crashed is that inventory is just so low. But now at least over the last couple of weeks and months, inventory is starting to rise. We’re at 1.1 million listings now, which probably sounds like a lot and in signs of some improvement to the health of the housing market, it’s up 12% over last year. So that is some really encouraging progress. But don’t get too excited because this is not really where we need to be just yet. When I look at the housing market, I often think about what would happen in a normal year. And to do that you have to look all the way back to 2019 because every year since then has had some weird anomaly going on. And so comparing today to 2022 or 2023 doesn’t really make a lot of sense.
So when we look back to 2019, we would expect in the month of February about one and a half million listings. We’re at 1.14, so we’re still 30% basically below what we had in the last normal year that anyone can remember and inventory this metric. There’s a reason I’m starting with this because inventory it matters a lot. It is a great indicator of the direction of the housing market because it sort of measures the balance between supply and demand. It measures the balance between how many people want to buy homes and how many people want to sell homes. And generally speaking, as a rule of thumb, when you have low inventory, it is a seller’s market. You have a limited amount of properties that are for sale and you have more buyers than homes for sale, and that generally drives up prices. And the reason that’s called the seller’s market is because sellers have the power in those negotiations.
They can usually get what they’re asking on their list price and maybe even a little bit more. On the other end of the spectrum, when inventory is super high, that is considered a buyer’s market because buyers have the power in that scenario, there are fewer buyers than homes on the market, and that means that sellers have to compete for that smaller pool of buyers, and they do that by offering concessions or lowering prices, and that gives buyers a better position. And right now what we’re seeing is that we are moving towards a buyer’s market. We are still below average, but just about the fact that inventory is rising means that we are moving steadily towards that buyer’s market. Now, it is worth mentioning that there are a lot of different ways to measure inventory. I’m looking at active listings right now, but there are other ways, and one of the other popular ones called Days on Market basically measures how long it takes for a property gets listed for sale to get put under contract.
And that metric is actually basically back to pre pandemic levels. And I think this is important, and I’m mentioning it for a reason because I think that we might be in a new era inventory wise, we might not get back to pre pandemic levels of active inventory and we still might have a buyer’s market. There might just be a new normal. We don’t know that yet, but we do know that days on market it shows us that the market is tilting back towards that balanced market. It is similar to what we had in 2019. Now if it goes beyond that, we start to see days on market tick up even beyond that. That would be really important to note when we’re forecasting prices. That could put downward pressure on prices, but we’ll talk about that a little bit later in the episode. But for now, we got to talk about why inventory is rising.
Yeah, we’re moving towards that buyer’s market, but the reasons behind it really matter for investors because there are actually two different things that can be happening and they sort of mean different things. So the first thing that could happen is that fewer people could be looking for properties. That’s also known as lower demand. Just fewer people want to participate in the housing market right now. The second thing is that more properties could be listed for sale, right? You could have the same amount of people looking, but if there’s more homes being offered that would drive up inventory, right? So let’s look at which of these causes are there. We’ll first look at new listings, the supply side, and that’s actually what’s driving this. We see that new listings are up 13% year over years. Again, similar to active listings, not back to pre pandemic levels.
It’s not even back to 2022 levels, but it’s higher than where we were in 23 and 24. And just to give you some sense of scale, in February of this year, we had 475,000 new listings. In February of 2019, we had 552,000. So there’s still 16% more in a normal market, but we’re seeing this go up. So it is true if you see those headlines saying listings are going crazy, inventory is going up, those things are true, but it’s not some emergency. If you see something on social media saying listings are going up and every market’s going crash, that is not what’s happening on a national level. We are seeing new listings go up a significant amount 13% year over year, but we are not at pre pandemic levels. And more importantly, this is not happening equally across different places. We see states like Florida and Texas with rapidly rising inventory where a lot of places in the northeast and the Midwest are flat or are still down.
So take all of those scary headlines that you see with this important grain of salt. Next, let’s look at that other thing that could be driving inventory, which is demand. We measure demand in a couple of different ways. The way I like to look at it is something called the purchase index. It basically measures how many people apply for a mortgage to buy a home in a given week. And when you look at that, it’s pretty flat over the last couple of weeks and months of 2025, but it is actually up year over year. And that is not just seasonality, it’s not just because we’re going from January to February to March to April. We are seeing this when comparing March to March, April to April, it is actually going up, which is super interesting and sort of counter to the narrative that you might be hearing in the media about the housing market, about how people are fleeing.
It is up and this is likely an impact of lower rates. We have seen mortgage rates go from sort of their recent high or at least their 2025 high in January is at 7.15. To as of this recording it’s about 6.5, 6.6%. And that is honestly, it’s a pretty meaningful difference. It’s obviously not where we were a couple of years ago, but if you were to buy an average $400,000 house in the United States, that savings, just the move from January to where we are today, would save you 140 bucks a month. That is a pretty meaningful improvement in affordability or improvement in your cashflow if you are an investor. So just to summarize here, what’s happening with inventory. So you can make sense of the news stories you’re probably hearing is yes, inventory is up, but it’s not because people are fleeing the housing market.
More people are listing their properties for sale and we are not at pre pandemic level. So this is not an emergency, but the trend is back towards a buyer’s market and something we should all be keeping an eye on. Now, last metric I want to just touch on is of course sale prices. This is what a lot of people focus on and now that we’ve talked about inventory and what’s happening here, it will sort of make sense to you that we are seeing sales prices still up according to Redfin and a couple other surveys, they’re between two and a half and three point a half percent up year over year, and that is close to what you would expect in a healthy housing market. Is this a healthy housing market? No, it is definitely not a healthy housing market. Ask any real estate agent or lending officer loan officer right now it is not, but this is a somewhat normal appreciation rate and I think the thing that is important here is it’s great that it’s up.
It is matching inflation. That is a great benchmark for us as real estate investors to pay attention to that our properties are at least keeping pace with inflation. But the trend is declining right at the end of 2024 is up 5% year over year. Then it was 4% year over year. Now it’s 3% year over year. It has sorted flattened out over the last couple of months. We haven’t seen further declines here in 2025, but that downward trend is important now that we’ve discussed inventory in the role it plays in the housing market, this should make sense to you. Prices should be softening given the dynamics we discussed. If there is more inventory, that means there are more properties for a similar amount of buyers that’s going to put downward pressure on pricing. So even though they’re up 3%, the growth rate declining doesn’t surprise me.
And I’m mentioning this because I just want to underscore the importance of looking at inventory. I could have told you and I based a lot of my predictions in 2025, which have so far proven fairly accurate based on these inventory trends. I was saying that housing prices were going to soften based on rising inventory and we’re seeing exactly that. The question of course that comes up next is wills continue, will prices stay up? Are they going to decline? And I will get to some forecasts and expectations for the rest of the year soon. But first I want to talk about what’s new and noteworthy in the housing market beyond just the metrics that we track each and every month. And I have three breaking stories to share with you when we come back from this quick break. This segment is brought to you by reim, the all-in-one CRM built for real estate investors. Automate your marketing skiptrace for free, send direct mail and connect with your leads all in one place. Head over to re simply.com/biggerpockets now to start your free trial and get 50% off your first month.
Hey everyone, welcome back to the BiggerPockets Real Estate podcast. We’re here today talking about new trends from the last month that you should be paying attention to and the first one is tariffs. I know you thought maybe you’re going to get through an entire day or maybe an entire episode without hearing the word tariff, but I’m going to ruin that for you. I have to mention it. It is really important. Now of course, it is very early into this new tariff policy and it’s a little early to tell exactly what’s going to happen with tariffs and how they relate to the housing market. I certainly have theories, but I would prefer to wait and see for a couple of months before offering any concrete predictions here. So instead of offering forecasts before really anyone knows what’s going to happen, I’m going to just tell you the things that I’m personally going to be looking at to make those predictions so you can all follow along.
The first thing is inflation. This is going to tell us a lot about the direction of the housing market because it will tell us the likelihood of fed rate cuts. It’ll also dictate a lot of the direction of the bond market. And tariffs are going to play this big role in inflation because economists believe that tariffs cause inflation. Even Trump himself has said that there is going to be some short-term pain due to his policy and I believe based on watching the news conferences that he’s referring to inflation. So to me, this is the big thing to watch over the next couple of months. And inflation, just so you know, sometimes it takes a couple of months to show up in the data. So even if it’s not high in April, I don’t think that means we’re out of the woods. We probably need to look at this April, may, June before forming an opinion.
The second thing I am going to be watching for is buyer demand from this recent stock sell off. There’s conflicting data. There’s all sorts of information about how much the stock market and real estate are correlated, but I did some research and I can just tell you that 11% of people in the housing market use money from the stock market to finance their down payment. And 11% might not sound like a lot, but we’re already at relatively low levels of overall demand. And if we saw even a 5% decline in demand, that would translate to the housing market. So that’s one part of it, but I think probably the bigger part of it is that there’s just overall fear and uncertainty about the economy. I’m sure you were seeing this on social media, I’m sure you’re talking about it with your friends and your family.
Everyone who looks at two huge declines in the stock market naturally gets a little bit fearful. Now it’s important to remember that the stock market is not the overall economy and the stock market is not the real estate market. And you have to remember that finance investing the economy, it’s not always logical. People like to think that it’s this perfectly rational thing, but it’s not. A lot of it is psychological. And so what I’m going to be looking for is how home buyer demand is impacted by the psychological impact of two huge stock market declines. And I’m recording this on April 8th, so by the time you might be listening to this, the stock market might have rebounded. It might’ve crashed really more, but even still, just the volatility that we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks has some psychological effect. We already see consumer confidence declining.
We see inflation expectations ticking up, and so I want to see how the psychological elements of what’s been going on translates to buyer demand over the next couple of months. So that’s what I’m looking for in terms of the impact of tariffs, inflation and buyer demand. I will definitely be updating you when we get that data. So stay tuned for that next month when we do our next housing market update. The second story that’s emerging right now that I want to share is that the condo market is showing a couple signs of strain. And I don’t want to be alarmist, but I do think that when these trends start to emerge, it’s worth mentioning and you can all factor it into your own investing however you want. Right now, 68%, so more than two thirds of condos are selling for less than their list price, and that is higher, but actually not that much higher than the rate for single family homes.
That’s actually 64%. But a lot of what I talk about on the show and I talk about data is this total number isn’t always what matters. It’s the trend that really matters. And what we’re seeing is the rate of condos selling for less than list price is going up faster than any other asset class. And we’ve also seen as an effect that condo prices have dropped over the last year for the first time in more than a decade, and this didn’t just happen in one market. This is happening almost universally. It happened in 97 of the hundred largest US markets. So we are seeing some consistent softness in the condo market. Another thing that I think is worth mentioning is not just that more properties are selling for less than their list price, but the gap between what they originally list their property for and what they eventually sell it for is actually really growing.
The average condo back in February had a sale to list price ratio of 95.4%, meaning sellers are getting almost 5% less than the owner listed it for. That’s down from last year and it’s down a lot from nearly a hundred percent during the pandemic years. Now, as I said, this is happening almost universally across the country, but there are some markets that are getting hit particularly hard. You would probably not be super surprised to hear that Florida is getting hit the hardest. And I don’t mean to laugh at that, it’s not funny, but Florida is continuously in the news for having one of the weaker housing markets right now. And what we’re seeing is that 85% of condos in Florida are selling below list price. It was 68% for the rest of the country. It is 85% for the total Florida market in Orlando, it’s actually 91%.
And there are some unique things going on in Florida. They have high HOA fees, insurance premiums have been going through the roof, which is hurting affordability in Florida. And after the condo collapse a few years ago, new standards, new code were implemented and a lot of condos have had to issue special assessments. Basically they’re going to their condo owners and asking for more money to make necessary upgrades for safety to these condo complexes. And that’s making affordability even tougher in what’s already a difficult affordability situation. And so Florida is just getting hit on all sides. And so I’m not super surprised that the Florida condo market is getting hurt, and I honestly don’t see it getting better in the near term. Now, Florida’s not the only market. My market that I originally started investing in Denver is really doing poorly. We see other popular markets like Virginia Beach and Charlotte also getting hit really hard.
So this doesn’t mean you can’t invest in condos like everything in the housing market we’re investing. There are trade-offs, right? This means you’re probably great buying opportunities, but you have to be careful not to catch the falling knife and negotiate a really good deal. I think this is actually a great opportunity for people who want to get into a housing market and have been previously priced out. Now don’t go and buy anything that’s overpriced, negotiate, ideally buy something under current market value. Clearly this data tells you that you have leverage, right? If the average condo is selling for 4% under list price, see if you can get 5% under list price. See if you can get 8% under list price because that gets you the upside and benefit of buying at a relatively low price, but insulates you against the potential for further price declines.
All right, that was our second story about weakness in the condo market. Third, I want to talk about the situation with mortgage delinquencies because if you are a part of the real estate investing social media world, you have probably been hearing a lot about this in the last week. It has been everywhere, this specific chart. So what happened was a popular influencer and social media personality, Patrick Beda took a chart that showed that mortgage delinquencies are rising and extrapolated it to the entire housing market and said that 6.1 million homeowners were in delinquency. The only problem with this is that he took a chart that was specifically for commercial multifamily assets, which is an entirely different asset class, an entirely different credit market, and applied it to the residential mortgage market and got what are honestly just completely wrong conclusions. So I want to just set the record straight and if you’re curious about this, I actually made an entire episode of On the Market podcast just about this.
You can go check that out on YouTube or on our other feed, but here’s the TLDR big picture situation. The overall delinquency rate for mortgages in the United States is about 3.5% right now. And that might sound high, but that is actually lower than it was in 2019. So lower than pre pandemic, and it is way, way lower than any crash conditions. Back during 2009, it was like 10 or 11% in 2019, the long-term average was about 4.6%. So in terms of mortgage delinquencies for the average American home buyer, we’re still in very good shape. And this is despite forbearance and foreclosure moratoriums expiring years ago, we’ve had years for that all to work itself out and we just haven’t seen this number tick up unless you’re looking at a very specific subsection of the market. When you look at FHA loans, which is about 15% of the overall mortgage market, those are starting to tick up as are VA loans, and that is important to note, but you have to remember what I said earlier, that the overall, even when you factor that in, the delinquency rate is low and actually dropped from January to March.
So of course this could change if there’s a big recession, but if you look at this overall, people are paying their mortgages and there aren’t a lot of concerns, at least on my end today for the residential market. Now, when we talk about the multifamily market, the chart that was shown, yeah, there are serious concerns there. Delinquencies have been going up, but I think that thing that sort of had me shaking my head about this over the last couple of weeks is that is not new. If you listen to this podcast or you listen to on the market podcast, we’ve been saying for three straight years that multifamily delinquencies were going to go up. We’ve been reporting on that. So none of that is news. The only reason this made news is because they extrapolated the multifamily market to the residential market and you just can’t do that. They’re two totally different situations, so something to keep an eye on. As always, I’m always looking at delinquency rates because they’re super important, but as of right now, they’re pretty much in line with where they’ve been over the last couple of years. I will certainly let you know if that changes. Alright, so those are our breaking stories for April. Let’s shift gears and get away from the news and talk about what this actually means for you and me and our portfolios. We’re going to do that. We right after this break.
Hey everyone, welcome back to the BiggerPockets of Real Estate podcast So far today. We’ve covered the data, we’ve covered the news. Now let’s talk about what this means for you. I’ll start by summarizing my general sense of what’s going on. First things first, the housing market. It’s still doing okay, especially in terms of prices because they’re up year over year. But my general sense when I look at a lot of data beyond what I’ve just reported today, but my general sense is that we’re going to have a continuing softening market. Inventory is going up and as I said, we’ll see what happens with buyer demand, but my gut tells me that we’re going to continue to see some softening prices. Does that mean the market’s going to crash? No, I still don’t see any evidence that that’s happening anytime soon. I think the market is softening.
We could see prices go flat, they could even go modestly negative at some point, but I just don’t see this risk of a huge selloff or huge dropoff in buyer demand, at least as we stand today. That’s what the data says. Is there a bigger chance of a black swan event, the market crashing? Now that the stock market is really volatile and we’ve seen huge declines, does the chance of a crash increase if there is a recession? Perhaps, but not necessarily. I think we have to wait until we see evidence of that and until, and I’m sticking with the trend, I’m sticking with my original predictions nationally, we’re probably going to see home prices continue to move towards flat. Now regionally, of course, that’s going to be super different, but that’s what the data still says and could change my forecast. But that would just be acting on fear and not on data or actual information.
And I prefer to act on actual information, rather just gut reaction to what’s happened in the last week or two. So the question then of course becomes should you consider buying real estate right now, I personally think that in this type of market we’re going to see both ends of the spectrum. We’re going to see some just God awful deals with tons of risk, a lot of hair on them. There’s going to be a lot of that out there. There’s probably going to be the majority of what’s out there. But on the other end of the spectrum, I think we’re going to see really good opportunities for long-term buy and hold that meet the principles of the upside era because we’re moving towards that buyer’s market. And I actually think in the coming months, these extremes may actually move even further apart. We might see even worse deals out there unfortunately, but even better opportunities if you are willing and able to participate in this market.
And I think what you do from here really depends on two things about you and your strategy. First is your risk tolerance and your risk capacity. In my opinion, the market is just riskier right now than it is during normal economic times. There is a lot of uncertainty and it might wind up turning out great, but uncertainty just means risk in my opinion. Does that mean that real estate is particularly risky? Not if you buy. Well, not if you’re looking for a long-term buy and hold. And in fact, I think you can make an argument that real estate is better than almost any other asset class right now, as I’ve been saying for months. But of course, if you’re going to participate in this type of market, you do need to be comfortable with some level of economic certainty and some level of risk. So that’s the first thing.
If you have the risk tolerance and the risk capacity to participate, I think you should at least be looking at deals because there will be opportunities. The second thing you need to think about is your ability to separate the wheat from the chaff. And I’m going to be honest, I actually don’t know what that phrase means. So I’ll say something that applies to me or I understand, which is separate the signal through the noise or find a needle in the haystack, whatever you want to call it. You need to be able to find good deals, right? That is going to be the really important thing because even if you have risk tolerance and risk capacity, if you can’t identify deals really, really well right now, I would suggest waiting because like I said, there’s going to be both extremes and you need to be really confident in your ability to find those really good long-term assets.
Now, that might sound hard. It’s not that hard. We talk about this all the time on the show. We have tons of content and information on BiggerPockets about how to find good deals, and those principles have not changed. You just need to be disciplined and follow all the fundamentals when looking for deals, especially in this type of market. Now, one last thing I do want to mention about whether it’s a good time to buy is whether or not you’re doing value add and value add investing. It’s basically doing a renovation. So either if you are flipping a house doing a bird or just doing a cosmetic renovation on a rental you already own, you have to remember that things are very likely to get more expensive in the next couple of months. We have seen just in the last couple of days, tariffs on China that provides a lot of building materials go up 34%.
We don’t know if and how much of that increased cost is going to be passed onto the consumers, but my bet is a lot of it is going to get passed on. And so we’re going to see a lot of building materials go up in price and we can even see things go up from a labor standpoint. Again, this does not mean you cannot buy, it does not mean you cannot invest. Almost every experience investor I know is going to keep investing, but it does mean you need to underwrite your deals a little bit differently, analyze your deals differently, and make sure you’re padding how much things you’re expecting them to cost by a lot. I’d say at least 10% if you want to be conservative, more like 15 or 20%. If you’re doing a total renovation, if you were doing select things, I would look at where your materials are coming from.
Look up the tariffs on those countries and adjust your performance accordingly. And I think this example underscores the need to be in tune and be aligned with your risk tolerance because as I said earlier, I think there’s actually going to be perhaps be better buys on the market right now for flippers or people who want to do burrs. But you really need to ask yourself, are you willing to take on the risk of uncertain pricing, of uncertain increases in material costs for that greater potential for return? There’s no right answer. Just think hard about this before you make any investing decisions. Now, for me, what am I doing overall? I’m trying to lower risk. I’ve actually put out an episode recently about my big upside move. I took some money out of the stock market. Fortunately, the timing of that looks really good. I did that at the end of February, and so I avoided some of this volatility because it had a little bit to do with tariffs.
But overall, I just saw a lot of risk in that stock market. And so I decided to take that money out and put it into what I believe is a more stable long-term asset like real estate. I’m taking some money, paying down my residents to save money on my mortgage, and then I’m keeping cash in a money market account while I look for opportunities in real estate. Now, I would definitely buy a deal right now if it was like a no-brainer, great decision. The underwriting worked even with my padded performa, but right now I’m going to be extra conservative and I haven’t found a deal that works for me. I’ve come pretty close, but I just haven’t found something that checks all the boxes for me. So overall, I am just sticking with my plan for 2025. I’m doing a live and flip that’s going well.
I think it’s going to lead to a great return for me. I am actively looking for an underwriting multifamily opportunities in the Midwest, but my main focus for an acquisition right now is trying to find one bigger multifamily property, something like five to 25 units by the end of the year. I’ve been underwriting a bit for that, but I haven’t found anything just yet, but I’m going to keep looking. That is my plan and I’m sticking with it. Alright, everyone, thank you so much for listening to our April Housing market update. If you have any questions or thoughts on what’s going on in the housing market, let me know. If you are watching on YouTube, let me know on the comments or if you’re listening on the podcast, you can always find me on the BiggerPockets website, biggerpockets.com, or on Instagram where I’m at the data deli. Thanks again everyone. I’ll see you next time.

 

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In This Episode We Cover:

  • April 2025 housing market update: home prices, inventory, mortgage rates, and more
  • Why inventory is rising so quickly now and what it means for buyers (good news?)
  • Home price predictions and whether or not we’ll see prices fall even more in inventory-heavy markets
  • The condo market’s notable sign of weakness and why price drops are becoming more common
  • With more economic pain, will foreclosures increase? Here’s why mortgage delinquencies aren’t exploding
  • And So Much More!

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Great cash flow is hard to come by in this market, but fortunately, there’s a strategy that can help you maximize your property’s rentable space and profits. In this episode, we’ll show you how to convert your own rental property for co-living or renting-by-the-room!

Welcome to another Rookie Reply! Tony and guest co-host Garrett Brown are diving back into the BiggerPockets Forums, and first up, we have a question about one of 2025’s up-and-coming strategies—co-living. This rookie investor wants to maximize the amount of cash flow their property can earn, so we’ll steer them in the right direction with the best arrangement and profitable value-add ideas!

Then, we’ll hear from an investor who already has their investing strategy and financing lined up but can’t decide where to invest. We’ll share some crucial market analysis advice and some potentially property-saving tips for managing their rental from afar. Stick around till the end for a question we’ve never been “axed” before, which involves a dangerous short-term rental amenity and potential lawsuit!

Tony:
You’ve got money saved and you’re financing figured out, but you’re also having analysis paralysis on what market to jump into. This episode is for you. Today we’re answering questions about real world problems that Ricky Investors are facing right now. We’re tackling everything from how to find the right market when you already have financing and a very specific buy box to what’s the best way to make co-living work as a strategy. So what’s up guys? My name’s Tony j Robinson, and today I have Garrett Brown from Bigger Stays filling in for Ashley Kehr. Garrett, what’s up brother? How are you doing today, man?

Garrett:
Doing good. I got some big shoes to fill with Ashley being gone, but I’m hoping to step up to the plate for everyone. So

Tony:
You got some big shoes, you got to have your repertoire of weird nineties movies, quotes in your back pocket to keep everyone on their toes, man. But excited to have you here, brother. So let’s jump into the first question. So the first question here says, would a pad split rinse by the room work on a five bed, two bath property? I’m debating either selling or doing a pad split on my five two rental for a pad split, I could realistically get five people or at least four filling the house. One bathroom is a private en suite to the master bedroom, so there would be three to four people sharing a single vanity full hallway bath. I could charge more to the person who gets the master bedroom is what I’m assuming. But has anyone done a rent it by the room strategy with a similar house layout?
So co-living pad split? I think first Garrett, let’s just kind of break down what that strategy is and how it differs from a traditional long-term rental co-living or rent by the room is kind of exactly what it sounds like, right? Instead of having this big five bedroom two bath where you rent it out to one family or to one tenant, you break it up and you rent out each individual room. So instead of having one tenant for all five bedrooms, you have five tenants each with their own room or if you’re living in one of those units as well. And I think the reason that the co-living strategy is gaining a little bit more traction, A, because there’s opportunities out there like Pat split now, which are making the facilitation of this a little bit easier. But B, it’s a way to really increase cashflow and we’ve interviewed multiple people, Miller McSwain, about the co-living and rent by the room strategies and it really is a way to kind of juice the returns from a traditional single family property. So that’s kind of what it is and why it’s gaining some, I think gaining some much traction now. So I guess Garrett, in your perspective, thoughts on, because it sounds like this person likes the idea of co-living, but their biggest concern is just like, Hey, is it unreasonable to have one person or one bathroom for three to potentially four different people? So what’s your take?

Garrett:
I don’t have a lot of experience with this type of model, but the things I do know about it is it’s very popular in more college towns and things. You have different roommates renting out rooms and that kind of perspective. Me personally would probably, I would think that the bathroom thing is going to be a logistical issue within your guest and roommates, a lot of times when I’ve heard this be successful, they usually have a higher bathroom count that maybe can supplement this amount of guest into it. I would be curious if your market has the desire to have different roommates in each room and things like that because not every market really has the appetite for this type of thing. Are there other successful models in that area or are just a full single family home? Is that the more traditional model there that you’re probably going to have a higher and a better guest, a better tenant pool? Let me say to actually attract from, so I personally would be a little wary with that bathroom count, but maybe there’s an opportunity to add another bathroom or something because then not only are you starting to get into adding equity to your place, but you’re also making it more suitable for this type of arrangement. So I’d be a little weary of this, but if you can add that it may be something to consider. What are your thoughts on this, Tony?

Tony:
Yeah, I mean you kind of took the words out of my mouth, Garrett. I think if the property’s big enough, could you potentially add the additional bedroom, bathroom, whatever it else that you need? It’s really make this work. And when we interviewed the Nasos on the podcast, that was kind of their strategy. They would go out and find a five bedroom and then they would convert, say that there’s a separate living room dining room than a formal living room. They would convert one of those spaces into more bedrooms and into more bathrooms and they would really squeeze what they could out of that square footage because, and it makes sense, their thought process was in a co-living strategy or with the co-living strategy, I should say, that people aren’t really just hanging out in the living room or in all the living spaces like that.
So if you’ve got all these different communal spaces, it’s kind of not always going to be used. So can we instead turn that extra space into rentable space to really juice up the revenue? So I kind of like that approach where if you’ve already got the asset, how much more would it cost to slap up a few pieces of drywall in the closet, add another bedroom, slap together a few pieces of drywall, a sink and a shower, throw in a bathroom, and now you’ve got an additional bedroom with some additional bathrooms as well. So I think that would be my strategy.

Garrett:
I agree long as that and you get everything permitted within wherever the area you’re at, I think from a long-term play that adds a lot of value to your net worth and at the same time makes that model just seem so much more reasonable and you’ll get a better tenant pool that comes around.

Tony:
And I guess the only last thing I’d say is just also look at your competition and if you’re looking at other room rentals and you see that the ratio typically in your market is five bedrooms to two bathrooms, then you’re fine. It’s like okay, cool, then we can just roll with that. But if you notice that most of the other room rentals, it’s like five bedrooms to three or four bathrooms, then yeah, it’s obviously an issue you got to go address. But leaning into the data to help you make that decision would probably be my take there.

Garrett:
I can agree with that and see what the capacity is for check Airbnb and other places like that to see if there’s even an appetite maybe for there and know that you’re going to have more logistical issues too, dealing with five different tenants in one house as opposed to one tenant renting out the house and just be prepared for that as you’re stepping into it.

Tony:
Alright guys, we want to start talking about short-term rentals, which is the kind of bread and butter for me and Garrett. We’ve got some friends from north of the border in Canada who are looking to buy in the US and we wanted to give them a little bit of advice on what it looks like to buy in this market. But first we’re going to take a quick break to hear a word from today’s show sponsors. We’ll be right back after this. Alright guys, welcome back Garrett. What’s our second question for today?

Garrett:
So the second question for today is my husband and I are looking at buying our first STR. We are Canadian wanting to invest in the US market as it is far more stable than Canada. I had an STR back in the day when Airbnb started. My husband is a contractor and I’m in real estate, so we are wanting to do a value add. I do all the design work for his company and we both love water and we definitely believe in the philosophy of investing of where you would like to vacation. I also would like to do a one bed, one bath place as it feels as a bit of an untapped market. We like to stay in properties nicer than our home when we travel and we always find it difficult discovering luxury, one bed, one bath, smaller accommodations and always seem to end up renting a two bed house that is far bigger than what we require just to get the luxury component.
We will be looking at A-D-S-C-R loan. So if we were to start all over again, what advice would you give a rookie Canadian investing in the US market? It’ll be our first time owning A STR short-term rental remotely. So all advice is welcome. We love North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. We like water. We are not interested in the west coast. Our goal is to eventually do a land hack and then lead up to a boutique hotel. This is definitely an interesting, there’s a lot of things to unpack there. This is somewhat of a model I followed when I was building up some of my short-term rentals doing land hacking and really trying to dominate the smaller cabin market. So I’m kind of curious what your thoughts are as this all kind of came about as we were talking about it, Tony, and where your thoughts are for them.

Tony:
I think a few things to unpack in this question, but it sounds like maybe the first part is kind of where you mentioned a few different markets, but then the other piece is the remote management side. So I think there’s two different things to tackle here on where it sounds like for you, like you said, investing in a place that you also on a vacation is important to you, which I totally appreciate. Not the same for us in our portfolio, but everyone kind of approaches this differently. So I think as going through and you’re looking at potential markets, I would really encourage you to look at all of the data associated with that market using websites like aird NA, price labs and look at the year over year data and just understand how are things trending in that market. I’ve had the good fortune of looking at a lot of different markets in a lot of different cities and working with different people as they look to buy their first Airbnbs.
And because of that, I’ve seen trends just nationally across a lot of different markets. And the trend that we typically see is 2020 covid really weird year 2021 post covid boom, you saw supply increase dramatically. You saw rates, occupancy revenue increased dramatically. 2022 supply continued to grow, the growth in revenue died off a little bit. 2023 things reversed in a lot of markets where you saw revenue come down because supply growth was continuing to increase. So you saw this thing happen where supply ballooned, it pulled down rates because there was this oversupply. And then 2024 in many markets was this year of we rebalancing where we started to see gains again because there were a lot of people who left, there were a lot of people who jumped in that shouldn’t have, and the ones that stayed were the ones who were really doing this the right way.
So just looking at the overall data to see which way is this market trending because say that the market you really like to vacation in, what if supply is still growing at 20% to 30% every single year? Is that a sustainable market for you to invest in for 2025 and beyond? But if you look and you see the supply has gone to almost zero from 2023 to 2024, then that’s a good sign, right? It means that things are starting to balance out on that market. So I think before you even really go deep into a market, look at the underlying data, what does supply growth look like? What does occupancy look like? What does your RevPAR look like? And look at those numbers to gauge the health of that market.

Garrett:
That makes total sense. And I think it’s great advice for people looking into specific markets that they might’ve seen in the top 10 Airbnb places to invest in. And a lot of those lists that come out, I’m guilty of making a ton of those types of lists for BiggerPockets quite a bit. And sometimes those markets, once they’re getting publicized so much, they might become quite not the best, for lack of better word. So that’s when you use the tools that you have out there. And I think they talk about A-D-S-C-R loan, I think, which is a debt service coverage ratio loan, which essentially this just means does the property lenders will look at the property as a business, how much income it actually produces, if you’ll be able to cover that debt that is on the property, a k your mortgage. So these are good tools to use because then you also have a secondary set of eyes that is looking at the property with you from a lending standpoint that might be able to point out to you like, Hey, this property isn’t going to work for us.
And there’s a lot more restrictions around DSCR loans sometimes of how they price them and where they get some of their data from. This might be a good use of this type of loan too though, because they might be able to be that second set that needs to tell you like, Hey, you might think this property is going to make this much money, but looking at the data we use, it’s not going to cover the debt and we’re not going to be able to lend on it. And that might be a time that they actually save you from getting into a property that you didn’t necessarily want to. And to kind of talk about where she was mentioning the one bedroom, one bath as kind of an untapped market, I would say that really depends on the market. I can agree there are some specific areas that a one bedroom, one bath might excel and it might be something kind of underutilized.
I kind of think that the gap in the market right now is you either need to go smaller, like a one bedroom, one bath or go really large five bedroom to that because I think when you get caught in that middle ground of a two bedroom, a three bedroom, you’re probably paying a premium to get that property, especially in a vacation market, and this is all market specific, but just from a holistic viewpoint, that revenue that you’re going to have coming in probably isn’t going to be able to compensate for what you’re putting down into the house. So if you’re kind of stuck in that limbo, I would lean towards, and all market specific, like I mentioned, lean towards a one bedroom, one bath, or even air DNA not long ago put out one of their major reports talking about how larger homes are still some of the bread and butter for short-term rentals in most markets around too. So I just wouldn’t get caught in the middle there particularly. But each market is different and sometimes the data might say completely different and that’s why you need to really, really focus on what information is out there for you and be kind of a research nerd when it comes to looking into these particular markets.

Tony:
Yeah, I think you bring up a really good point, Garrett of different bedrooms counts performed differently depending on the market. And in some markets, more so in the urban and suburban markets where there’s a lot of competition from hotels, the one bedrooms in the studios have actually fared worse because people oftentimes there’s so much hotel inventory and it’s the kind of larger properties that you mentioned that tend to do well. So I think for whatever market it is that you are considering, not only look at the market wide data, but then also filter that data down so you’re looking just at the one bedrooms and see how those have fared because maybe the overall market is seeing a recovery, maybe the overall market is seeing growth when you filter down to just one bedrooms, what if it’s the inverse or maybe it’s doing even better to the market.
So I think there’s something to be said there to filter it down. I guess the other part of this question was the remote management. And I think honestly managing remotely is a lot easier today than it would’ve been five, 10, even five years ago. But there’s in my mind a few key things that you need and I’m curious to get your take as will Garrett, but the first, you need your people. So you need a good cleaner, you need a good handyman. They’re going to be your eyes, your ears on the ground. They’re going to know the property better than you will because they’re in it, especially your cleaners after every single turn. So getting a really good cleaner, getting a really good handyman. Those are the first things. Second is your tech stack, and the ones that I would highly encourage that you get are obviously a PMS electric or keyless entry pad.
We use the Slay on code. We like using software like breezeway that’s going to allow you to really inspect the work your cleaners are doing and then a digital guidebook and there’s other tech you might need as well. But in sort of the remote management piece, those are kind of the key ones that I would see. So you’ve got your tech handing, a lot of the heavy lifting, you’ve got your people reinforcing. And then I think even when you’re remote, it’s still good to get out there a couple of times a year just to get your own eyes on it. We were at our properties in Tennessee right before Christmas this year. We hadn’t been because we had a baby and it was just always good. We have amazing cleaners, but they still miss things and they might think something is fine that you in your mind actually want to change or that you want to fix. So it’s good to still get out there in some regular cadence as well. So if you do those things, regular visits, really solid team, right tech, I think the remote management tends to work really well. Anything to add to that, Garrett?

Garrett:
No, I think you hit it right on the head. I’m a big advocate of self-managing your portfolio, especially if it’s your first or second property. There’s numerous benefits there. There’s tax benefits there to spending the most amount of hours on your property. I think one thing to just kind of highlight as well too about when you talk about team is if you are going out of state, make sure you’re using a real estate agent that is short-term rental knowledgeable, like an investor-friendly agent that we have. A lot of those at BiggerPockets, you can find them at the agent finder, but make sure that they have experience in the short-term rental world because nothing’s worse than having somebody that sold a few residential homes in a neighborhood somewhere and then you get paired up with them to help with your short-term rental purchase and they don’t know anything about the nuances that come with actually having a short-term rental. So ask them what percentage of deals last year were short-term rentals, do they own any short-term rentals? Do they have any recommendations for cleaners and handy people in the area? This will start to give you a little insight into the actual area and really work with somebody that knows the landscapes of short-term rentals. They are a big real estate investment, but they are just slightly different than most other traditional investments with the different that could be in place restrictions and legalities that could follow.

Tony:
Hi guys. We’ve got one more question and this one’s about a dilemma about throwing axes at your short-term rental property. So actually a question I’ve never been asked before, so I’m excited to answer it. But first we’re going to take our last break and while we’re gone, if you haven’t yet subscribed to our YouTube channel, you can find us at realestate Rookie. We dropped not only all of our full podcast episodes, but we also do some dedicated YouTube videos there as well. So again, at realestate rookie, and we’ll see you guys right after this break.
Alright guys, we’re back here with our last question and like I said before the break, this is a question that I’ve literally, I’ve been asked a lot of questions about short-term rentals. I’ve never been asked this specific question, so let’s get into it. So this person says, we’re getting our first Airbnb ready here in Colorado. We have an ax throwing lane in the backyard that came with the property. We were wondering if anyone has successfully done something similar in their Airbnb. Our insurance is saying they can’t cover it with liability, but what about having a guest sign a waiver? If we could include it as part of the Airbnb, it would definitely make us stand out. So yeah, I definitely agree that having act throwing at your Airbnb would make you stand out because no one else has it, but I think no one else has it potentially because just so terrifying to think of having your guest walk around with axes unsupervised at your Airbnb. I, I’ll give my take Garrett. I’m curious what you think, man, but I would not at any of my properties liability waiver or otherwise, I think allow my guests to have something as potentially dangerous as an ax at the property. When you’re at the ax throwing places, there’s staff there like, Hey, don’t cross this line if you’re doing something silly, they can kick you out, whatever it may be. But just untethered access to an ax makes me kind of nervous. As a host, what’s your initial reaction, Garrett?

Garrett:
I have a very similar reaction, especially if your insurance, which I’m hoping it’s a short-term rental, specific insurance is telling you it’s a liability. It’s probably something I would not entertain. A waiver isn’t most likely going to save you from any type of lawsuit that may come from it. And it just seems like a bad idea all around. Like you mentioned, there’s no staff on site. Even at one of my rentals before, we had a lot of land in one of my glamping sites and we toyed with the idea of letting having golf cart rentals on site, and our insurance was like, please don’t do that. We were like, oh, maybe we’ll get a waiver. We talked to a few other people in the space and it was pretty much a hard no on all ends for us. What we’d have to do logistically to make sure it’s working, because you also want to provide, if you’re providing this amenity, it has to be fully functional.
So if something goes wrong, guests are going to blame you. And if something goes wrong, you’re likely the one to be sued, especially if insurance isn’t covered. And I think the smarter route here is to see if there’s any ax throwing places within your community or any other type of fun events. I have a place with water on it. I don’t rent jet skis at all, but I have partnered with a local company to give a discount code to my guests that they can go rent the jet skis from a whole nother place that has liability insurance to cover that and is just completely off of my property. So they still get the amenities. I don’t have to deal with the headache and the extra cost that would even be associated with trying to get insurance on this. And so it still provides the guest experience that I want and guests are safe and sound on my property and I sleep better at night.

Tony:
And neither Garrett nor myself are attorneys. So I think for everyone that’s listening, SoCo gets some real legal advice, but a liability waiver can’t prevent someone from suing you just because they sign the waiver. That’s not them saying that I will not sue you. So they could still sue you, they just might lose. But even just the headache of something like that potentially happening and you still having to pay for a lawyer just to protect yourself. Even the idea of that I think is what kind of turns me off from it. And even if they do sue, there is still a chance that maybe the judge does rule like, Hey, you as the owner, you as the host were negligent in some way and you didn’t do a necessary job of protecting your guests at your property. So hey, yes, you are on the hook.
So yeah, hard. No, for me, when we bought our hotel gear, it’s something similar. The previous owners had bike rentals just like normal bicycles. They rented to all the guests were saying, and our insurance company said, look, you can keep the bikes, but your premium’s going to go up by X. And we’re like, yeah, it is not even worth it, right? Let’s get rid of the bikes. So yeah, I think insurance companies, they’ve probably seen enough claims to know what things to charge a premium for, and there’s probably a reason they’re saying no to the axes. So if you’re looking for ways to stand out, there are probably other safer amenities or experiences that you can add. Heck, I’ve even seen magnet Axe throwing where it’s the same idea, but it’s like a magnet board and it’s not a real axe. So even if someone got hurt, it’s definitely safer than a traditional ax. So yeah, hard, no, for

Garrett:
Me, I’d rather you spend a few hundred dollars on different outdoor games cornhole and go the full route. I mean, even in one of my properties, we built a small putting green, a thousand bucks, super simple. Insurance has no problem with that. So there’s a few things out there that you can really, really think about and browse Wayfair and Amazon and all these sites to see, hey, what are some other outdoor games that I actually could supply that are a lot less on the liability side that my insurance is going to be a little happier? And we already know premiums are going up at record paces, so we don’t want to add to that at any of mine. So I would definitely state to the safer routes.

Tony:
And you give a great call out of the putting greens, we added mini golf to one of our properties too. Were very inexpensive. But for everyone that’s listening, if you just want some good motivation around what you can add, Airbnb has different sections, different categories that you can browse. And one of those categories is play just like PLAY play. And if you just click on that, open up your search nationwide and you can see just a lot of cool play type things that people have added to their properties. And if your property’s in Colorado, who cares if you copy something that someone’s doing in Brazil? It’s like no one’s ever going to be shopping Colorado and Brazil at the same time. So you can implement something similar into your own listing. So just an idea to maybe get some more motivation on what you can add that maybe it won’t be as scary.

Garrett:
Yeah, yeah, agree.

Tony:
Awesome. Well, Garrett, appreciate you jumping in and covering for Ashley today. Man, as always is good. We can catch up and talk shop about short-term rentals. Where can folks get in touch with you, man?

Garrett:
You can find me on the brand new Bigger Stays YouTube channel that was launched by BiggerPockets that is specific for short-term rental investing. And you can find me on Instagram at Garrett Brown Re.

Tony:
Well, Ricky’s, thank you for hanging out with us today. As always, if you’re enjoying the podcast, please do subscribe to our YouTube channel. If you’re listening on an Apple podcast, be sure to leave an honest rating and review. I think the more folks that know about the Rookie channel, the more folks we can impact and the more folks we can impact, the more folks we can help get on their way to build in financial freedom, which is what we all want. So again, if you guys are enjoying it, subscribe, share it with someone else. That’s it for today, guys. My name’s Tony j Robinson. Joining me today is Garrett Brown filling in for Ashley Care. And we’ll see you guys next time on an episode of Real Estate Rookie.

 

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Most people chasing FIRE (financial independence, retire early) are doing it all out of order, and it’s costing them years of financial freedom. So, we thought, “What’s the fastest way to achieve FIRE, and which steps would you take if you were starting from scratch?” Today, we’re bringing you a supercharged financial independence plan, sharing the exact financial order of operations that’ll take you from a $1,000 emergency fund to fully-fledged early retirement.

We know the steps because we’re reverse-engineering our own paths to financial independence, and we WISH we had done some of these earlier. If you’re a beginner in the FIRE movement, start here and work through these steps to FIRE the fastest. If you’re close to FIRE already or at a significant financial milestone, don’t worry. We have tips you can use right now to retire earlier and avoid the “middle-class trap” that kills so many FIRE dreams.

We’re going through retirement accounts, emergency funds, cash-flowing investments, and side hustles to help you earn more. Plus, what to do once you make TOO much money to invest in tax-advantaged retirement accounts.

Mindy:
What if I told you that most people pursuing fire are doing it completely out of order? The difference between reaching financial independence in 10 years versus 20 isn’t just about how much you save. It’s about when you save it. Today we’re breaking down the exact sequence of financial moves that will supercharge your path to financial independence. Hello, hello, hello and welcome to the BiggerPockets Money podcast. My name is Mindy Jensen and with me while Scott Trenches out on paternity leave is my friend Amber Grant. Amber, thank you so much for joining me today.

Scott:
Hello Mindy. I am happy to be here on this wonderful day in Colorado.

Mindy:
We are so spoiled. It’s like the best kept secret. I tell people that I live in Colorado, they’re like, Ooh, isn’t it cold there? Sure.

Scott:
Nope. I’m from Ottawa. I know what cold is. This ain’t cold, it’s

Mindy:
Just cold. I’m from Wisconsin. That’s like Ottawa South

Scott:
BiggerPockets has a goal of creating 1 million millionaires. You are in the right place if you want to get your financial house in order because we truly believe financial freedom is attainable for everyone no matter when or where you are starting.

Mindy:
I think you’re really starting to get the hang of that Amber Lee, another octave lower in your voice and you’re going to be Scott’s twin. Excellent. Alright, let’s get into today’s episode. We want to add a few caveats to this conversation. This episode is for someone who has already started building towards financial independence. So we’re going to quickly breeze through the fundamentals you hopefully already are doing or have done before we get into more tactical steps that you should be taking on your path to fire. So first up, Dave Ramsey’s baby steps. The first three of them I think are really, really great. His first one is build a $1,000 emergency fund. This is where we part ways because I don’t think that a $1,000 emergency fund is enough. However, it’s a great start, especially if you’re starting from a position of no emergency fund whatsoever. I would say three to six months emergency fund unless you have a lot of different buckets to pull from and I’m leaning more towards six months just with all of the economic uncertainty that we are experiencing here in America right now.

Scott:
Mindy, I actually think three months personally there’s something to say about having to tackle some debt, which might come into one of our steps here and three months is a good buffer. It takes about three months for someone to find a new job and I know six months with our current state might be better, but if I were advising someone to save right now, I would say three months and then move on and come back to it.

Mindy:
That’s a good plan. Okay, so what would you move on to

Scott:
Next? Free money. Things like matching your 401k or something that you can’t get back. So HSA contributions end when you file your taxes or in April so you can no longer contribute for the year beforehand. Your 401k is a yearly amount. So again, something that once you pass that year, you’re not going to be able to come back to it. So I really think it’s important to try and get free money or things that you can’t come back to within the year, within the next year.

Mindy:
Okay, and that would be the retirement savings like your IRA, your Roth IRA, your 401k, the free money. I think you’re talking about that employer match if you have one, if you don’t know if you have one or not, now’s a great time to talk to your HR department. Ask about all of the benefits that your company has, not only if they have a match, but also what kind of 401k options do they have for you? Do you have a rough 401k option? Honestly, I would just ask them what are all of the benefits that come with this job because I have heard of people having health club paid, I have heard of people having reimbursements for college. There’s all manner of benefits that exceed just the 401k and the healthcare.

Scott:
I agree completely and with healthcare, a lot of people don’t realize that maybe a high deductible health plan that comes with that HSA with an employer match or an employer contribution may actually do well for you and your family versus say a plan that you are just paying a copay with. So high deductible health plan versus other plans, it may be a better option. So just take a look into that as well.

Mindy:
Yeah, and now’s the time to start thinking about that because at the end of the year is typically when you have the renewal, so do the math now, what would it cost for the current plan you out of pocket, paying your deductibles through your company versus paying, having the higher deductibles. We had a listener do some math on a spreadsheet. It’s in our Facebook group and I will bring that back up to the top of the Facebook group just so you can see what I’m talking about. This was such a great bit of information. He said essentially there is only a very small subset of people where not having a high deductible plan is the better choice based on the amount of out of pocket, the amount of your premiums per month and the HSA benefit so it doesn’t work for everybody. This was even chronic illnesses. There was just a very small percentage where this wouldn’t be the best choice.

Scott:
So if someone’s getting free money, what’s next Mindy?

Mindy:
Oh, prioritizing high interest rate debt pay down. Now back when interest rates were really low, Scott and I had this idea that if your rate was 5% or less, don’t pay it off any faster than just the minimum payments. If it was seven or 8% or more, pay it off as fast as you can. So when I say high interest rate debt pay down, I’m talking about your credit cards that are in the double digits. I’m not talking about your mortgage right now. I want to make sure that all of your extraneous debt is gone. Your mortgage, if you have a 3% that’s in that, don’t pay it off any faster than you have to. Category that Scott and I prefer. However, I will say that he has started changing his tune and as you get closer to retirement, he is advocating more for having a paid off house.
I am still going to always keep my 3% mortgage for as long as I can because it’s 3%, but again, high interest rate pay down, so anything over 8% that is not your mortgage, I would focus on paying that off. Now there’s two ways to do that. There is the debt snowball and the debt avalanche. The debt snowball is you make a list of your debts from lowest amount owed to highest amount owed and you don’t pay any attention to the interest rate. You pay off the lowest amount. You make the minimum payments to everything but the lowest amount. You take every spare dime you have and throw it at that lowest amount. The idea is you get the mental win that you have paid off a debt and then you attack the next debt in the same fashion. The debt avalanche takes into account highest interest rate to lowest interest rate debt.
So you kill the highest interest rate debt first and then move down to the next highest interest rate debt. The problem with the debt avalanche is that it could take a long time to see that first win. I like a hybrid. If you have multiple debts, make both lists lowest to highest amount owed and highest to lowest interest rate. Pay off that lowest amount owed first. Really attack that, get the win and then move over to the other list and start attacking the highest interest rate first. It’s six of one, half a dozen of the other. Ultimately you just need to pay off the debt.

Scott:
Agreed, it needs to go.

Mindy:
My dear listeners, we are so excited to announce that we now have a BiggerPockets money newsletter. If you would like to subscribe to this newsletter, go to biggerpockets.com/money newsletter while we take this quick break. Thanks for sticking with us. Okay, Amber Lee, let’s say that we have an emergency fund. We are contributing to get our employer 401k match. If there is one, we are making our HSA contributions If we have one and we don’t have any high interest rate debt, where would you tell somebody to go next?

Scott:
Well, first I’d give them a high five and then I would say track your expenses. This is my absolute favorite thing to tell people. It’s annoying, but there are a couple apps out there that can really help you with tracking your expenses. Things like YN Monarch money, even an Excel spreadsheet. That’s what I get people to do so they can really feel it and see what they’re doing. And I love a three month expense tracking, so I like to go three months back no matter what those three months were and to put down every dollar that happened in that month and see what comes out of it and categorize it. People are always so bewildered with how much money they spent and they’re always like Amberly, but I planned a vacation in February and December was Christmas and I’ll be like, great. And March is another big expense.
There’s always a bunch of big expenses and for me tracking some sort of three month time period and averaging it out is probably pretty accurate. The thing I also recommend for you guys to do before you actually track your expenses is take a guess. I love when people tell me, oh Amber, I only spend about $2,000 a month and then we track it for those three months, see the average and I guarantee it’s going to be 50 to 100% more than whatever number you told us. So track your expenses whether again that’s an app and you do it over a year period or just in an Excel spreadsheet for a couple months.

Mindy:
So I love absolutely everything you said, and I’m going to go a little bit further. When I first started tracking my expenses, it was on a notebook paper on the kitchen counter right where I always walked in and it was a physical reminder, oh, I have to write down what I spent and I know that I went to the gym this morning and on the way back I went to the grocery store. So I would write that down and then the next day I would come in from the gym and oh, and I also went to the grocery store and Target and I started seeing face in front of me within two weeks where the big hole was in my spending. So if you aren’t going to fill out these expense reports and these well not expense reports, these the tracking expense, you know what it is an expense report.
If you’re not going to fill these out in real time, then you have to go back at the end of the month and do it, which A can be daunting and B doesn’t stop the problem in the middle of the month, I was two weeks into checking my expenses and I was like, oh, look at that. I go to the grocery store every single day and I only go in for one thing, but do I come out with one thing? No, I come out with a lot of things. So that was very easily a way for me to fix the hole in my budget because we were absolutely, oh, we only spend $2,000 a month. Where did all of our money go? We are only spending $2,000 a month. Well, that’s not true at all. We were spending so much more than $2,000 a month because we weren’t tracking it.

Scott:
We have to take one final ad break, but when we’re back, Mindy and I are going to dive into what options do you have when you are nearing your FI number? Thanks for sticking with us.

Mindy:
Okay, Amber Lee, let’s move on to the next level. Let’s call it 80 to a hundred thousand dollars in income and you start to see that you have a little money left over at the end of the month and you want to achieve FI in 10 to 15 years. What kind of options should we start looking towards?

Scott:
We got to calculate your fire number. If you have no goal to work towards, then what are you doing? So we just talked about you’re tracking your expenses so you can actually see what your expenses are today and then we take that times it by 25 and that is your fire number. So if you are spending about $40,000 a year, your fire number is $1 million. You need $1 million to cover all of those expenses. Should they not go up over time?

Mindy:
Have you calculated your fire number? Amberly

Scott:
Mindy? I’m the worst fire person in the world. Yes I have, but I have to get clear on what my spending will be in retirement. So my fire number I think is a little higher than it probably needs to be, especially because I have some rental income. But let’s just say for the sake of this, my fire number is for sure $2.5 million. I need a hundred thousand dollars to live to maintain the lifestyle I have today

Mindy:
And I think that that is valid. I want to stop you right there and say you’re not the worst fire person ever. And there are some people who get a little, and I don’t know that this applies to you, but get a little embarrassed by how much they think that they will need in retirement. Oh, I’m going to need a hundred thousand dollars. Okay, then own that. You need a hundred thousand dollars. Great, that’s 2.5 million. That’s doable. I caution people who say, oh, I need 10 million in retirement. Really, why do you spend that much now? And these are people that I know are not spending that much now. So you’ve got this great big goal, you could potentially retire earlier than this $10 million pot. So I think it’s really important to know your fire number, to see where you’re going.

Scott:
I agree and I think some people have complicated situations like me where it’s real estate and investment, so I get to kind of dabble in both worlds, meaning my investments don’t have to be 2.5 million to make a hundred thousand dollars a year If I’ve got real estate income, which I dunno, am I retired then? I don’t know, but let’s move on.

Mindy:
Okay, Amber Lee, Scott and I have had a difference of opinion on traditional versus Roth accounts. Where do you come in on that?

Scott:
For IRAs, I say Roth IRA, all the way from the time that you start earning money, I think you should put all of your money into a Roth IRA. Even if you are a low income earner or a high income earner, the $7,000 discount in a sense for taxes isn’t going to be enough for me to really move a needle, but that bucket needs to be filled and we need to fill different buckets for retirement. So I say IRAs need, well in my opinion should be a Roth IRA and let that baby grow

Mindy:
And I am right there with you. I am contributing to a traditional 401k because I am trying to reduce my taxable income. But again, if you’re younger, perhaps the Roth option is better and that is going to send you back to the HR department to ask them if a Roth option is available. I know that BiggerPockets didn’t have a Roth option for a while and I believe Scott was the one who got us the Roth option because that’s what he wanted to do. Amber Lee, let’s remind our listeners that the Roth IRA has income limits for contributions for 2025.
Your modified adjusted gross income for single filers must be less than 150,000 and for married filing jointly, it must be less than 236,000. I can tell you one year I put I maxed out my Roth IRA on January 2nd. I was so proud and then December 30th I’m like, oh, oh, how do you do a claw back? It was such a complicated math problem to try and figure out how much did you put in, how much did it grow? You have to pull all of that out because I made too much money. Now let’s be honest, this is a great problem to have.

Scott:
I agree that problem is a great problem and that’s actually why some people recommend not maxing it out at the beginning of the year and instead waiting until you’ve either done your taxes or you get a good idea of where you stand if you might be on the cusp of that. So if you’re making $80,000 a year, this isn’t for you. If you’re making 145 with maybe some additional income and your modified adjusted gross income is going to be teetering on that balance, it might be a good time for you to wait and then do it later.

Mindy:
Or if you have not yet maxed out your 401k, pull that income down so that you can contribute to the Roth. But let’s say that I make way more money than I could ever possibly make. How can I contribute to a Roth anyway?

Scott:
Backdoor Roth, Yahoo. If you don’t know what this is, it took me a year to figure it out because for some reason my brain just didn’t understand how to do this. There are fantastic guides, literally step-by-step based on the institution you invest in on how to do a backdoor Roth. Essentially what it is is you can have, you don’t want to have any IRA specifically traditional IRAs. It’s the easiest way to do this. So blank slate. When it comes to any IRA, you open a traditional IRA, you put your $7,000 into it and then there’s a button normally in Fidelity and in Vanguard that says Convert to Roth and you want to do that. They sometimes say wait three days. From my understanding, the IRS doesn’t really care, but this is, you might vary in regards to how this works for you, but you can do it within a couple of days. You try to not have gains on that amount, but you transfer the entire amount into your Roth IRA and then it can grow tax free from there.

Mindy:
You are paying taxes on Roth contributions no matter what. If it’s traditional, if it’s a regular Roth flat out, you don’t have to do the back door. If it’s a backdoor, you’re still paying taxes on that money. So it’s not like you’re doing anything different. You’re just getting more money into your Roth account.

Scott:
Exactly.

Mindy:
So now that money is growing tax free, what’s so great about the Roth is you pay the taxes now it grows tax free. When you withdraw it, you are paying $0 in taxes on that

Scott:
And again, you’re filling another bucket that you can pull from later on and we’ll talk about that in just a little bit.

Mindy:
Hey Amber Lee, we talked about the high deductible healthcare plan. Do you have one?

Scott:
I do. I have done the math with two babies having two children at two different years. High deductible health plan still made sense.

Mindy:
That is amazing. I actually had babies before the high deductible healthcare plan came into my life as an option, but that is really awesome that you did the math and it’s still the HSA, the high deductible plan won out. I’m going to say the guy in the Facebook group did the math and I can’t remember exactly what scenario it didn’t work in, but almost every scenario it works in. So I’m going to encourage you to talk to your HR department, look at what the current premiums are and do the math, how much because the HSA is, it’s even better than a Roth plan because it’s triple tax advantage. With a Roth, you pay tax and then it grows tax free and you pull it out tax free with an HSA, you don’t pay the tax, it grows tax free and you can pull it out for qualified medical expenses tax free.
Now what I know a lot of people in the PHI community do is they just cashflow their medical expenses unless they have a big expense. They cashflow their medical expenses, save their receipts, and then once they retire you could start pulling that money out. You can pull it out all at once. You can pull it out a little bit to kind of supplement your income. I had two kids braces, so I have at least $12,000 in bills that I can pull out once I retire. Plus I keep all of the bills for the random prescriptions. We pick up the random doctor visits. You can’t use HSA money for healthcare premiums, but you can use it for any other expense. There’s a lot of expenses that aren’t even like medical expenses really, like contact solution or band-aids or things like that. There’s a whole list of what is it, like 130,000 different products that qualify for HSA and FSA money. So investing within your HSA, this is a super awesome plan. I encourage you to find a way to max it out every year, but please note that you have X number of dollars to put in there. If your employer contributes on your behalf, that just reduces the amount that you can put in because it’s a total, it’s not an employee match. Does that make sense?

Scott:
Makes perfect sense to me.

Mindy:
Amberly, I know you’ve been listening to the BiggerPockets Money podcast for a long time. You’ve heard Scott and I talk about the middle class trap. We want to make sure that our listeners who are somewhere in the middle of the path of two financial independence are not falling victim to the middle class trap. One of the easiest ways to avoid the middle class trap is to have after tax brokerage investments.

Scott:
Yep. I actually learned this from talking to my retiree, early retiree friends who got stuck not having cash for today in their early retirement because it was all in their 59 and a half 60 plus accounts, and so they’d have to take a penalty or Roth conversions to get to it and that was really difficult for them. So I learned about three years ago that I need to start splitting up some of that cash into a brokerage account and that’s what I started doing and it’s really exciting for me because it means that I can retire early and not get stuck with all of my money being in a house or somewhere else. Something else is real estate, making sure that not all of your money is going towards your primary residence, so you’re not maybe paying that down super early if you have a low interest rate, but also again, making money on the side using your real estate to actually get you money. Things like house hacking. We talked about flipping, maybe investing in different properties, but making sure that your primary residence maybe isn’t your only real estate holding.

Mindy:
I do like real estate as an investment strategy and Scott very famously in January of 2025, sold 40% of his index funds and turned it into cash flowing real estate in Denver. I’m going to caution people. We are Amber Lee and I are both in love with real estate. Scott loves real estate as an investment strategy. If real estate is not something that you want to do, don’t listen to this episode and say, oh, well I guess I have to invest in real estate. There are other options such as the after tax brokerage account. You don’t have to go into real estate, but it can be a really great way to generate income, generate cashflow so that you don’t fall into the middle class trap.

Scott:
Agreed. Number one thing you should ask yourself, if you’re listening to this episode and you’re not quite sure if you want to have real estate, do you want to be a landlord? If the answer is no, maybe just move on to step two side hustles. I have friends who have made some really good money off things like Rover. I don’t think driving for Uber or Lyft is actually all that profitable anymore, but I know that things like dog walking, dog sitting because you can get a hundred dollars for a night to watch people’s dogs. What other side hustles have you heard of, Mindy, that actually cashflow? Well,

Mindy:
I have a friend named Nick Loper who has a whole podcast about side hustles. It’s called Side Hustle Nation and he has some pretty amazing side hustles. One of the biggest side hustles, one of the best side hustles that I’ve ever heard from him and we subsequently had Mark Wills on our episode 74 is loan signing, being a notary and when you bought your house, a notary came to your house and you signed all the papers. You didn’t have to go any place to buy the house or when you refinance and it’s not as popular now, it’s not as lucrative now as it was in 20 21, 20 22, even 2020 when we had covid and you weren’t going into the title companies to sign your documents. That was a really amazing side hustle. But Nick has a ton of awesome side hustles. We also interviewed Jackie Mitchell on our episode 470.
She was in the middle of a 100 day, $100 a day side hustle challenge and she had some really great side hustles. One of them was some sort of AI thing. I don’t understand ai, our listeners already know that I’m not tech savvy, but it was translating and correcting AI documents and she was making quite a bit of money from that one. She has a great outlook on different side hustles and she has some side hustles that she would never do again because it just took too long to make that $100. But episode four 70 is another great one.

Scott:
When you’re within two years of retirement, it’s now time to start upping that cash. You’re going to want one to two years of cash in some sort of high yield savings account and you might be thinking, oh man, amberly two years of cash sitting there not making any money and not working for me. But the thing is, it’s not supposed to be working for you today. It’s supposed to help you in case something happens during retirement where the market takes a downturn and you need to pull cash instead of your investments. So you want to make sure that you’ve got something, some sort of reserve for that first few years of fire.

Mindy:
Amber Lee, I think that fire adherence are really, really focused on optimizing everything and with cash that’s not optimized, that’s not investing, it’s not growing. It’s just sitting there in my high yield savings account making very little return. And I want to point out that your responsibility for that one to two years of cash is to preserve the value of that cash. It is not to put it in the stock market and try to make it grow one to two years. You could have a super event where you take that two years of cash, you put it into the stock market and then it goes down for two years. You’re selling when the market is down. That’s the worst time to sell is when the market is down. So I just want to point out the cash is not losing money. It’s not not a bad investment. It is preservation. So it gives you options. You can make a decision based on time and thinking, not snapshot decisions and split second decisions that you have to make because oh my goodness, I don’t have any money at all. Alright, now let’s get into what happens when you actually retire Amber Lee. Let’s say that you are retiring today. What’s your first order of operation?

Scott:
Start your Roth conversion ladders. You are now in a either extremely low tax bracket, so you can start doing this. Mindy, do you want to talk a little bit about what this is?

Mindy:
The Roth conversion ladder is when you pull money out of your 401k and you roll it over into a traditional IRA. That is not a taxable event, but then you take that IRA and you turn it into a Roth IRA. That is a taxable event. So you want to make sure that your income for the year is going to be such that this makes sense for you. This is why people do this after retirement because you are paying taxes on that conversion. You are converting to bridge any gap between the income that you already have and the actual expenses that you have. So let’s say you’re going to live off of $40,000 and you cannot access your retirement funds and you’re going to take all $40,000. You would pull $40,000 out of your 401k, put it into an IRA, convert it to a Roth, and then you let that sit.
That sits for five years. That $40,000 has now become contributions and you can withdraw your contributions at any time. You do that every single year and you are paying much lower income tax on just the conversion versus if you converted a million dollars, you’re paying taxes on the million dollars. So you need to do a little bit of math for this, but it’s a great way to have buckets to pull from five years after you do your first conversion. Another opportunity in early retirement is the 72 T. We have had Eric Cooper on to explain how he has done his 72 T and I know that Darren and Jolene were also on the Life After Fire YouTube series. They have also done a 72 T essentially. It is similar but different to that Roth conversion. You’re taking a chunk of your 401k, your pretax 401k, and you are converting it into an IRA that IRA now funds.
Your 72 T 72 T is also called SEPP or substantially equal Periodic payments. Every year you have to pull the same amount out of that new IRA that funds your 72 T. So let’s say you’re doing $50,000 every year for at least five years or until you turn 59 and a half, whichever is longer. You have to pull that money out during the course of every year. So it’s a great way to get access to your 401k before you have traditional timeline access to your 401k money. You’re not paying any penalties on this, but again, it is a taxable event, so you are paying taxes on this.

Scott:
Those are some pretty high level things to be doing once you’ve retired. So definitely look into the different episodes that Mindy mentioned. Something that’s a little less difficult is just pulling money from your portfolio. So we know that you should have a bucket of a brokerage account that doesn’t have anything to do with retirement, so you can start pulling from that. You can obviously get cashflow from your rental properties if you did end up going that route. And when we’re talking about pulling money from your investible assets, something we want to always think about is the 4% rule. So you can pull 4% out of those. Again, investible assets essentially into perpetuity. So without pulling down that principle. So you can essentially use that money over and over and over again at 4% every single year at least for 30 years with a 96% success rate. And of course in down years maybe you pull a little less and in really good years you can obviously do a little bit more. There’s a big debate in the fire community of whether or not you should even change that 4% or go to 3.5%. But I believe personal finance is personal and sometimes we will buffer that 4% with cash and sometimes we can just take less from our portfolio.

Mindy:
Yeah, there’s a lot of different options to help you preserve your portfolio when the market is down. I think that I was actually having a really great conversation with a friend of ours, Amber Lee, and he said, it’s not like you’re going to get to a position of financial independence, retire early and then never look at your portfolio again. You’re going to continue to look at it, you’re going to continue to check in and if that isn’t your plan right now, make it your plan, check in and see what’s going on. Because on a year that you’re 22% up, yeah, you could probably take more than 4% on the same year when you’re 22% down, maybe you look to that cash buffer on that 22% up year. Maybe you just pull out a little bit more and replenish your one to two year cash buffer so that on that 22% down year, you can just step back a little bit and I’m making these numbers up.
Of course the 22% I am going from I think wasn’t 2022 down, 22% or something. It was down a lot. And then 23 we came up or maybe 23 was down. I don’t know. It’s so hard to remember all these numbers, but either way, if your portfolio has gone up significantly, you can use those funds to replenish your cash so that when the market goes down, notice I said when not, if the market goes down, you can either not pull out that money or pull out less and live off of some of that cash until the market goes back up again.

Scott:
For me right now, I’m actually not even close to this part. I’m going to do these high level parts. I’m actually just still stuck in that what should you be doing when you’re in the accumulation phase? So this is really helpful for me just to start planning what my future is going to look like in the next five to 10 years because I want to keep this in mind so that I can start learning about it and making my portfolio look the way it needs to look to get to complete retirement.

Mindy:
Emily Guy Birkin has a really great book out called The Five Years Before You Retire, which is more of information about planning your future retirement before it’s too late. So that’s also a great book to check out. Alright, Amber Lee, I think we’ve kind of covered it. We’ve given our listeners things to think about, lots of opportunities to make changes now during their path so that when they get to the end of the path, they are financially prepared for their retirement.

Scott:
Yeah, Mindy, this is a great conversation. I learned a lot. Thank you.

Mindy:
Thank you for joining me. Alright, that wraps up this episode of the BiggerPockets Money podcast. She is Amber Lee Grant. Amber Lee. Where can people find you online?

Scott:
You can find [email protected]

Mindy:
Or BiggerPockets.

Scott:
Yeah, you can email me at [email protected].

Mindy:
Alright, and I am Mindy Jensen saying See you round bloodhound.

 

 

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Managing rental properties on your own might seem like a smart way to maximize profits. No property manager means no extra fees, and who knows your property better than you? 

But for many landlords, that DIY mindset comes with invisible costs—ones that slowly chip away at your time, energy, and income.

Self-management often feels empowering at first, but the reality sets in quickly: late-night maintenance calls, chasing rent payments, handling tenant disputes, sending out lease renewals, and keeping up with paperwork. Before long, what was supposed to be passive income starts to feel like a second job.

The good news? It doesn’t have to be that way. With the right systems in place, landlords can streamline operations, reduce stress, and focus on what really matters: growing their portfolios and enjoying financial freedom. 

Let’s break down the hidden costs of self-managing rentals and how property management software can help you avoid them.

The Illusion of Cost Savings

On paper, self-managing your rentals yourself looks like a win. You avoid the typical 8% to 12% property management fee, maintain control, and improve your monthly cash flow. But that “savings” doesn’t factor in the true cost of your time.

Every hour spent responding to tenant issues, scheduling repairs, or reconciling payments takes time away from growing your business—or just enjoying life. You might be saving money, but you’re spending something even more valuable: your time.

And that time drain often isn’t obvious until you’re deep in the trenches. I remember my first property management job without any software. I had to carry a second cell phone at all times—just in case a tenant needed something. 

There was even a drop box for tenants to drop their rent checks and maintenance requests. This meant I had to check the drop box every day! That’s not just inefficient—it’s exhausting. 

There were so many other time drags, such as making deposits at the bank, tracking rent payments in a spreadsheet, and building a financial statement at the end of the year for taxes. It was grueling. 

Once I switched to using software, everything changed. Tenants could pay online and submit maintenance requests through an app, upload photos, and track the status. It was better for them—and a huge relief for me.

The Real Hidden Costs of Self-Management

Here’s where the “invisible” costs of doing it all yourself start to show up.

Time drain

Tenant communication, maintenance coordination, and chasing down rent payments can quickly become a full-time job. Handling these tasks manually pulls your attention from bigger priorities—like scaling your portfolio or finding your next deal.

Financial inefficiencies

Every day a property sits vacant is lost income. Every late payment affects your cash flow. And without tools to automate reminders, track payments, or screen tenants properly, it’s easy to miss out on money you’ve earned. Manual accounting or tax prep? That’s another opportunity for costly errors. 

The emotional toll

Being on-call around the clock takes a toll on your mental well-being. The stress of juggling tenant issues, emergencies, and day-to-day operations can quickly lead to burnout, leaving landlords feeling overwhelmed and unable to focus on growing their portfolios. Over time, this emotional strain can outweigh any perceived financial benefits of self-management.

A Smarter Way: How Software Simplifies Self-Management

If you want to stay hands-on without getting overwhelmed, the solution isn’t always outsourcing—it’s upgrading your systems. Property management software helps you stay in control while saving time and reducing stress. Here’s how it makes a difference. 

Automated rent collection

No more chasing tenants or calculating late fees. Platforms like RentRedi automate the process—sending reminders, accepting payments via multiple methods, and enforcing late fees automatically. You get consistent cash flow without the constant follow-up.

Streamlined maintenance requests

Tenants can submit repair requests with photos right from their phones. You can assign tasks to contractors, track progress, and respond faster—all without endless back and forth. It’s more efficient for you and a better experience for your tenants.

Simplified tenant screening

With built-in credit, background, and eviction checks, the software allows you to make better leasing decisions—without needing tenants to come into an office or fill out paperwork by hand. I used to do all this manually, and it was slow, tedious, and error-prone. Now, I can review qualified applicants quickly and easily.

Centralized document management

No more digging through email chains or lost files. The software keeps everything—leases, payment history, maintenance logs—in one organized dashboard. Come tax season or dispute time, you’ve got everything at your fingertips.

Scalable as you grow

Whether you have one property or 100, the right platform scales with you, RentRedi, for example, offers affordable pricing and features that work for landlords at every stage. It’s built to grow with your business, so you can add doors without adding headaches.

If you are a Pro member of BiggerPockets, you have access to RentRedi for $1! The ROI on your time saved is incredible when you are only paying $1 for their systems and processes. 

Conclusion: Stay in Control Without Losing Your Sanity

Self-management can absolutely work—but only if you have the right tools in place. Otherwise, what feels like saving money often turns into a pile of stress, inefficiency, and lost opportunities.

The goal isn’t just to manage—it’s to manage well. Property management software like RentRedi helps you do exactly that, giving you back your time and peace of mind while helping you run a professional, profitable rental business.

If you’re ready to simplify your operations, reduce stress, and make self-management sustainable, it might be time to upgrade your toolkit. Your future self—and your tenants—will thank you.



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Watching mortgage rates bounce around over the past few weeks has been liable to give you whiplash. While the rest of the world was wringing its hands about stocks falling off a cliff, real estate investors were quietly crossing their fingers with news that mortgage rates had dropped to their lowest level in six months in the aftermath of President Trump’s tariff announcement. 

On April 4, the Friday after Trump made the announcement, rates were around 6.55%, according to Redfin. By April 10, they were inching up closer to 7%. These dramatic shifts have made it almost impossible to predict monthly loan payments for prospective real estate investors. 

According to Redfin, the decline in rates following the tariff announcement meant that a buyer on a $3,000 budget had roughly an extra $9,000 in purchasing power as rates fell from 6.82% on March 27 to 6.55% on April 4. On an average-priced home of $425,000, the brief interest rate drop would have lowered the payment by around $600, from $2,716 to $2,777. That has since been wiped out

Don’t Expect a Market Crash

Redfin economics research lead Chen Zhao said: 

“Even in times of great economic uncertainty, there are people who need to move. For those weary homebuyers, this drop in mortgage rates could be a silver lining of this week’s historic tariffs announcement. However, a word of caution for the general public: This is a wait-and-see moment. Tariffs and the fallout we’ve already seen in the stock market are impacting the economy and could create more volatility in the housing market.”

If we’ve learned anything from the last couple of weeks, it’s that real estate investors cannot rely on waiting and seeing. At this rate, we’ll be in our graves waiting for the right moment to buy. That’s because the longer we wait for the optimum moment, the more home prices will continue to increase, making it more difficult to qualify for loans and shrinking potential cash flow. Equally, a housing crash, dropping rates suddenly and increasing affordability, as what happened after 2008, seems increasingly unlikely.

A Meaningful Decline

“The record low supply of houses on the market protects against a market crash,” Tom Hutchens, executive vice president of production at Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions, a nonqualified mortgage lender, told Forbes. While investors pray for a rapid reduction in rates, dramatic falls lead to sudden price increases, which is detrimental to investing. 

Rather, a gradual, ongoing decline is an ideal scenario. “A meaningful decline in mortgage rates would help both demand and supply—demand by boosting affordability, and supply by lessening the power of the mortgage rate lock-in effect,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, said in the company’s March report. “But the current high national debt will prevent mortgage rates from falling drastically—and certainly not to the 4%-to-5% range seen during President Trump’s first term.”

We’re in a catch-22 because for an increased supply of homes, the market easing and possibly prices lowering have to happen to boost builder confidence. That seems unlikely.

“I don’t expect to see a meaningful increase in the supply of existing homes for sale until mortgage rates are back down in the low-5% range,” Rick Sharga, founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, a market intelligence and business advisory firm, told Forbes.

How Real Estate Investors Can “Game the System”

The only way to beat the uncertainty of rate fluctuations is to “game the system” by creating additional cash flow where none previously existed. This is achieved in two ways: increasing an asset’s rental income or managing to get a lower interest rate. There are practical ways to accomplish this.

Increasing cash flow

There are a few ways to increase cash flow without violating zoning restrictions:

  • Short-term rentals: Changing a long-term rental to a short-term rental can boost cash flow if your property is located in an in-demand area that can attract year-round visitors. However, if your guests are seasonal, it’s probably best to stick with steady year-round tenants.
  • Adding extra rental space: Finishing basements and attics and adding ADUs are practical ways to add rentable space. Whether you have long-term or short-term tenants, more space means more money.
  • Renting parking spaces: This has taken off in the U.K. There’s even an app for regular homeowners to make the most of their parking spaces, earning big bucks during in-demand occasions such as New Year’s Eve, sporting events and graduations. Even though it hasn’t taken off in the U.S., there’s no reason for you not to charge your tenants for parking like hotels do, either as a separate fee or buffered into the overall rent.
  • Renting by the room: Renting out rooms is an increasingly popular way to bump up cash flow if you don’t mind the additional management.
  • Shared ownership: Combining resources for a small two-to-four-family building will allow you to buy a home for less out of pocket, using a co-buyer’s credit or income to qualify for a lower-rate mortgage, which could be all you need to start building equity with a tenant paying down your mortgage. 

Getting a lower interest rate

Here are some ways to do this:

  • Loan programs with low rates: As of April 10, the interest payment on a NACA home loan was 5.75%, a whole point lower than the national average. Moreover, these loans come with no down payment, closing costs, or PMI. There are income restrictions; you have to attend a NACA homebuying workshop, live in the home, and cannot own any other property at the time of purchase. However, for a rookie investor looking to get on the property ladder, this program and others like it are well worth investigating.
  • Each state has its own homebuying program: So do major lenders such as Chase and Bank of America. Once you own the home and are living in it, you can be creative to help cover the mortgage and plan your next steps.
  • Improve your credit score: This is obvious but often overlooked. A credit score above 720 will help you get the lowest rate possible.
  • Consider your loan term: Extending your loan terms or seeing if your lender is open to a period of interest-only payments will help you lower your monthly payments.
  • Make a larger down payment: In a high-interest rate environment, the last thing you want to do is over-leverage. A large down payment will keep you in good stead and get you the lowest rate possible. Should the rate drop, you can always do a cash-out refi.
  • Buy mortgage points: This is another good short-term strategy if you have the cash to make your monthly payments more affordable. 
  • BRRRR investors can consider construction-to-permanent loans: These loans have the advantage over regular hard money loans because they do not need to be refinanced, meaning there is only one set of closing costs. Once construction is completed, they automatically turn into regular rate-and-term mortgages. 

Final Thoughts

Keeping an eye on interest rates to pick the best time to buy is recommended, but rates alone should not deter you from purchasing real estate and investing. It’s easy to get bogged down in the weeds, fretting about rate changes from one week to the next. Instead, pick a strategy that works best for your situation, and when the time is right, jump in.

Real estate is a great equalizer if you can make your mortgage payments. Rising prices will ensure that everything works out in the end, with the added advantages of tax benefits, tenant payments, and increased equity along the way.

A Real Estate Conference Built Differently

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For three powerful days, engage with elite real estate investors actively building wealth now. No theory. No outdated advice. No empty promises—just proven tactics from investors closing deals today. Every speaker delivers actionable strategies you can implement immediately.



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What if you could predict how a housing market performs before buying there? This would allow you to invest only in the best areas across the US, putting money down where you know it will multiply and letting you get leagues ahead of the other investors. This is MORE than possible, but you’ll need to know which metrics mean the most to an investing market. Neal Bawa has been doing this for years, building a huge real estate investing empire simply by looking at the data others often ignore. Today, he’s giving you his exact strategy.

Why should you NOT invest in your backyard? It may seem like the easiest place to start, but Neal says you could miss out on a massive upside by sticking to what is comfortable. As a data scientist, he puts the numbers before the hype, ditching cities that investors are flocking to and investing in those that only have the most solid fundamentals. He mentions one metric that makes a housing market grow or slow in rent prices, but which metric is it?

Today, Neal is sharing the best markets across the US to invest in, why renters prefer one type of housing over others (it’s not what you’d think), what Neal is buying NOW even with high interest rates and still (relatively) stubborn sellers, and why his six-metric formula is the key to predicting which markets will boom.

Austin:
Welcome to On the Market. I’m Your stand-in host Austin Wolff, which real estate asset class is better to be buying at this point in the market cycle, single family rentals or multifamily apartments. And what strategies are the pros using to determine the best markets to invest in this current market cycle here today? To break it all down and discuss the best new investment opportunities is expert real estate investor, Neil Bawa. Let’s get into it. How are you, Neil?

Neal:
Fantastic. Good to be back.

Austin:
Awesome, awesome. Neil, just if listeners haven’t heard your story before, can you just briefly walk us through your origin story, your background, and how you got here?

Neal:
Sure. I’m a data scientist, computer science degree. Data science is sort of my major technologist. Live in Silicon Valley. Ran a tech company for about 15 years, built it up from 10 to 400 employees, sold it to a big private equity firm in Chicago. While I was doing that, I was living in tax, California earning the big fat tax salary, and so I was paying about 50% of my taxes to the man. So invested in real estate for about 10 years, along with family and friends, no investors or anything like that. Had great success with that. And in 2009, got interested in the data science of real estate because I couldn’t find any data scientists in real estate. I saw people using data, but that’s not the same thing as data science. And so I got interested in ranking cities for real estate investments. I realized there were no good cities and no bad ones.
It was just timing. So Austin for example, six years ago was probably the best city in America to invest in today. Actually, I could find many people who would say it is the worst. It has greater rent loss than any other major city in the United States around 22% since 2022. So that sort of is a great example of understanding market cycles and how cities went through market cycles. So I wouldn’t say I’m a market cycle expert, that’s not what I do, but I’m an expert in matching market cycles with cities. That’s what we are known for. About 20,000 people a year. Use our data, including yourself, Austin. And each January we publish the data we consider ourselves to be the Wikipedia of real estate data science for cities, not real estate data science in general, but just for cities so that people can figure out what are good cities to invest in.
They can also figure out what really is the basis on which you should be investing in cities or not investing in cities, how to compare them to each other. So that’s what we are known for. Have a lot of geeky, nerdy investors that sort of like what we do currently have about 1200 active investors. We’ve invested about $300 million of their money into projects. We are moving away from having retail investors. So almost all of our future growth is either large family offices or groups from Dubai or Abu Dhabi that are investing larger checks. But for the moment, we still take money from retail investors.

Austin:
You analyze all these cities, find out the best places to invest, but can you just explain why not just invest in your own backyard?

Neal:
So you could, and many people do that and many people make money, but sometimes you look at what the s and p 500 has done in the last 10 years, and so there’s numbers for that. And then there’s numbers for something known as nre, and you’re like, what the heck is this is just a way of measuring how well real estate has done in the last 10 years compared to SP 500. So it’s just a benchmark, right? You notice nre, it’s not particularly good over the last 20 or 30 years, nres beaten SP 500 over the last 10 years, the SP 500 actually beat increase. And you’re like, wow. But in real estate, people should be able to make more money than 9% a year. That’s because tons and tons and tons of people lose money in real estate or they make very little. Anytime you make less than two and a half percent a year, you are losing money because two and a half percent is inflation.
So average inflation is two and a half percent. Actually in the last 10 years, it’s closer to 3%. So if you are making less than 3% a year, you’re losing money. So 3% is 0%. That’s the way to invest. Most investors don’t understand that. They don’t understand that you have to beat inflation to actually make money. And so a lot of people that don’t understand these concepts invest in their backyard and maybe they’re making 5% a year, maybe they’re making six. Like I live in Silicon Valley, San Francisco Bay Area, most expensive market in the us, and people often tell me, I’m making 5% and I’m happy. My first question to them is, do you realize you’re only making 2%? No, I’m making five. Well, that’s because inflation takes away three, so you’re only making two. What you really need to target is to make 10% after inflation, which means that you want to target a 13% return.
And what I find is almost anyone investing in their backyard doesn’t do that consistently. So people have a very high memory or recall for things that went well and a very poor recall for things that went poorly. For example, if they lost money in a project, they simply write it off and never think about it again. But the way to actually calculate returns is to include both the good projects and the bad projects, and also to calculate it from time value of money, not just, okay, I made 10% a year, but it’s like if you made 10%, it took you five years to get to cashflow. That’s a lower time of value than if you made 10% every single year along the way. I’m not criticizing people, clearly real estate makes money for people, keep doing what you’re doing. But I think that the data scientist approach is the one that results in the maximum value, and that is I really need to look at how much more am I making compared to the stock market, compared to money markets, compared to 10 year treasury bonds, which are supposed to be riskless, right?
Money markets and 10 year treasury bonds are almost no risk. At least that’s the way people define it. And then you’ve got the stock market itself, which is risky, and then you’ve got real estate, which is risky. So is there enough of a risk premium? And if there’s not enough of a risk premium, why do you consider yourself to be a real estate investor? You could very easily put that money into Vanguard, which is probably in between 10 year treasuries and stock investing, and you do pretty well. I mean, my wife’s 4 0 1 Ks in Vanguard and she makes about 6% a year, and she doesn’t do any work for it. So when people say, I make 6% in real estate, that’s like you saying, I could actually do this without raising a finger, but I prefer to torture myself year over year. So I can do the same thing that Vanguard can do. And if people are happy with that, that’s fine, but it’s not a logical argument.

Austin:
That makes sense. And when you’re looking at different cities to determine which markets might give you a better return, what sort of metrics are you looking at?

Neal:
So the five main metrics that we started with, and now a six to one has become very important. So I’ll talk a lot about the six to one. So relevant today is job growth, home price, growth, population growth, income growth and crime reduction. Now you might say, well, these seem common sense and a lot of these cities have these. Here’s the problem when comparing things, it’s not okay to say X has this and Y has this. For example, a city with a population growth of 1.5% is not at all comparable to a city with a population growth of half percent when it comes to real estate profits. They’re both growing. But there is an enormous difference in rent growth between a city that grows at one point a half percent a year and one that grows at half percent. The same thing applies for job growth.
The same thing applies for job quality growth. So a job at Google, so I live in the San Francisco area, the average salary at Google is around $227,000. A job at Google is actually equivalent to seven Walmart jobs. And when you look at their ability to buy things, right, discretionary income, a single job at Google in the Bay Area is equivalent to 33 Walmart jobs because the people that are working at Walmart have almost no discretionary income. So they basically just pay for basics, whereas the people at Google obviously can go on vacations and spend money, and all of that leads to growth of the local economy. Growth of that local economy needs to higher real estate prices, which leads to higher real estate grants, which leads to higher real estate profits. So markets that have a lot of Googles are going to see extraordinary growth in grants and profits, where markets that have a lot of Walmart employees, sorry to bash Walmart, I’m just using it as an example, are unlikely to have the kind of discretionary income needed to spike rents.
So it’s very important to understand that one job is not equivalent to one job. The quality of a job matters as much as the quantity of jobs. Crime reduction is interesting because it sort of is an interesting bucket. It’s an umbrella term that also takes in things like school quality. So what we find crime is inversely proportional to education. As education levels go up, crime goes down. So if you can find crime data, which is easy to find, you basically found school data in a weird sort of way. It doesn’t work a hundred percent of the time, but generally works. So those five things are the basis that we started to use to build our models. In 2009, the first time we built the model, the sixth element, I resisted it for years because my fundamental belief was that I should only be giving models to people that they can get the data for free, not pay for it.
The sixth element is impossible to get for free until I found a way to do it, which hopefully doesn’t get me in trouble with the data source in the future. So I’ll just give you the information and hope for the best. The sixth element is supply. And what’s interesting is supply in a market, even if you get multifamily supply, you can predict single family rents. Because if you think about it, a market is class C apartments, class B apartments, class A apartments, and then above them is single family. So single family, sometimes the rents are lower than class A apartments because you can have a very fancy class a apartment, but overall single family is slightly above class A apartments. So there’s actually four different kinds of apartments and single family rentals are an apartment. It’s just an apartment complex with one apartment, right? So all of these compete with each other.
Single families usually compete with class A and sometimes with class B, they don’t compete with class A at all, right? But they’re all together. And when incoming supply comes in, rents for single family will also drop if there’s too much supply. So what we’ve found is that if you don’t include the sixth element, you can now go into markets that are extraordinary from all other perspectives, but you’re still going to see negative prices and negative growth for multifamily. Usually. Interestingly enough, negative rent growth does not tank single family prices because single family has two different ways of valuing it. One is landlords and the other one is buyers that are buying a single family to live in. Interestingly enough, negative rent growth does not affect single family home prices, but it definitely tanks multifamily prices because multifamily prices are entirely based on rents and expense ratios.
So supply is that key sixth element. And I can tell you that the way to find the supply in any market is let’s say you are buying a single family home and you’re using it for rental. You’re not a multifamily guy. So you go find the home, you note down the address, then you go to Google and you find the nearest 150 unit apartment complex to this property. So it doesn’t matter if it’s class A, it doesn’t matter if it’s B, it doesn’t matter if it’s C, it doesn’t matter at all, right? So you just go find one that’s within a hundred yards of your property. Now that you’ve found it, you need to establish a relationship with a broker from one of the top firms, Marcus and Millichap, Arcadia, CBRE, all of the Newmark and AI established a relationship with them and tell ’em that you are interested in buying multifamily.
It’s a lie, sorry. And you’re going to basically tell them the name of this property and say, could you do me a favor and send me a co-star report on this particular property? And they will send you a CoStar report if they like you, because it only takes them a minute to do that. They’re just trying to be nice to a potential client. Inside of that CoStar report, there are four or five critical pages. One page has a bunch of bars, and you’re looking for the orange bars and the blue bars. There’s a vertical dotted line in the middle of the page, a vertical dotted line. The vertical dotted line represents the present. Anything on the left side of it is the past. Anything on the right side of it is the future. When deciding whether to buy a single family rental or a multifamily rental for that matter in a market, you have to make sure that the right side, the future does not have a lot of tall blue bars because if it does, those tall blue bars represents brand new properties that are going to be coming into the market in the next 12 to 18 months, and all of them will have multiple months of concessions.
A class A property with two months of concession is actually slum work cheaper than a class B property. So it drives down the prices of the B property, which drives down the prices of the C property. And since the single families are above the a’s, the a’s are now cheaper, so they’re competing with single families. So it drives down the rents of single families. Remember, it doesn’t drive down the value of single families because people can just buy the single family, but it definitely, as an investor, drives down your profit. By doing this, you can learn over time, understand markets. So perfect example is Austin. Austin is from the perspective of those five numbers that I gave you, the best market in the United States, it has extraordinary growth prospects. Not only does it have jobs, it has high quality jobs, Google jobs and Oracle jobs and Tesla jobs and all these kinds of jobs.
But am I investing in this market? Heck no, right? Why? Because on that particular page that I told you about, there are a lot of thin blue bars to the right of the dotted line. There are so many in fact that I can’t think of any other market in the United States that’s that bad. And not only are there lots of blue bars to the right of the dotted line, there’s also a ton of them to the left of the dotted line. And as a result, Austin rents have dropped by 22% in the last two years, more than any other market in the United States. So now you have this weird dichotomy of the best market in the United States being the worst market in the United States supply.

Austin:
Okay, we have to take a short break, but stick with us for more with Neil Bawa. We’ll be right back. Welcome back to On The Market. I’m Austin Wolff with special guest Neil Bawa. Let’s jump back in. Do you also factor in property taxes and insurance into your market selection process?

Neal:
So what I find is that in general, the supply piece is going to help with the property taxes and insurance. But many years ago, I realized that by buying apartment complexes and improving them, I wasn’t actually meeting my mission. I’m an Indian. I came to the US as an immigrant. I’m very deeply grateful to my country. I’m one of those immigrants that in my mind, I love this country more than my own, which is India, because I think it is a truly astonishing company, and you shouldn’t be listening to all those idiots out on social media. There are no other places in the world like the United States, and this is why everyone is dying to get here despite all of our political dysfunction. Bottom line is that I wanted to actually make a difference in this country, and I thought that once I was done with my tech career, I would make a difference by buying old properties and improving them.
And my thought process was when I improve them, I take a property that could turn into a ghetto, into a property that’s a lot better, and that’s true. But here’s what I found. Eventually after 2013, after the Jobs Act was passed, 10,000 syndication shops opened up. I was one of them. And basically we went out and bought so many properties and drove up the prices of so many properties that those Class B and C properties became unaffordable for the Class B and class C people. They were supposed to be for them, and they can’t afford them. And so we ended up driving up rents in the United States by a crazy number, including 15% in a single year, 2021. So usually rents should go up matching inflation. And if you go back and look at a hundred year chart, you’ll notice that they do. But you’ll notice that starting 2003, the relationship between annual rent growth and annual inflation started to break.
And in 2020 it completely shattered because in 2021, inflation was 2%. In 2021, rent growth was 15. So it completely shattered, completely got destroyed after that. And so bottom line is that I realized that I actually wasn’t doing as much good as I thought. So then in 2016, and I realized this before covid, though, I’ve really doubled down on it after Covid, but in 2016, I was like, I should add more stock to the country. That’s the way to basically reduce cost, is to just add more stock. So I’m going to build apartments. So in 2016, I built Art city center in Utah, my first apartment complex, 103 units, and then I built a lot more of them, and then I realized I was wrong again, because what was happening is every apartment complex that I was building by definition, was a Class A. And so the people that were living there were actually not people that needed to live in apartments.
They were people who wanted to live in apartments. So young yuppie folks, maybe they came to Provo, Utah for a two year job, didn’t want to go through buying a home. So they’re basically living these class. I’m like, how the heck is this helping the United States? It’s not really helping. Not bad people obviously have these nice apartments to live in. This isn’t what I set out to do again. So by 2018, I was pretty much in a state of confusion as to whether I’m achieving any kind of goals. Eventually, I decided the best way to do it is to basically start talking to my tenants. So we started running polls. I had a secret question hidden inside the polls. The polls had a bunch of questions that were not really relevant, but were there, and we were giving people $25 gift cards to answer them.
There was a secret question in there. That question was, is this your home? Is this your home? Four words, right? And so we would go around asking people that question for class A properties, class B properties, class C properties, and town homes. Interestingly enough, no matter whether it was class c, b or a, most people said no in an apartment. And regardless of whether it was a lower end town home or mid-market town or a high, high-end town home, most people said yes in a town home. So this was the biggest mindset change in my entire life because what I realized is people living in apartments don’t consider it a destination as far as they’re concerned. They’re on a journey and their job is to get away from the apartment, even class A apartments with fancy pools and fancy rooftop decks. Same result. It’s not their home.
But when people live in a town home, if they know that they don’t have the income to buy a single family, which most of them don’t, they start accepting it as their home. Maybe they’ve got a one car garage instead of two. Maybe they’ve got an eight foot backyard instead of 50 feet, but they can have pets. They can have kids running around. So what I found was there is an extraordinary difference in basic happiness between people living in rental town homes and people living in apartments. So I decided that should be my life mission because now I’ve found a way to make people happy and add to stock. So I created a company called Mission 10 K. Before I did that, I spent millions of my own money building a pilot community, built that through covid, launched it, very successful, very profitable, and very happy tenants.
If you go to the mission 10 k.com website, all of the tenants that are being interviewed that tell you why town homes are different from apartments, they’re all from that pilot property. And I think if you watch five minutes of interviews, it’ll blow your mind as to how different their mindset is. They were all coming from apartments. So I’m not bashing apartments, I’m still building apartments. I think we need more apartments in this country, but I don’t think it’s as big of a solution as town homes. So the Mission 10 K enterprise, we’re building 10,000 town homes this year. We’re building 568. Next year we’re building 1100. So we have this year’s pipeline and next year’s pipeline all done. And so I went to my investors and I said, I need money, but not for a project. Normally, Austin goes out to his investors and gets money for them to build a project.
I said, I want to build a company. Can you invest in my company like you buy Apple stock and Google stock? Can you buy stock in my company? I said, yes. So we gathered a lot of money to a company called Mission 10 K, and that company is now going out and building these town homes. We tried expensive town homes in Texas and fell flat on our face, by the way, I should say that. But now we only build mid-market town homes and where do we build them, right? This is a very, very long answer to your question. I’m now coming to the answer. We only build them in markets with very low property taxes, very low insurance, very low land cost, very low construction cost, and then all of the other six metrics,

Austin:
I’m sure that limits the amount of markets.

Neal:
I can’t build in taxes. Property taxes are too high and insurance is too high. I can’t build in Florida because insurance is too high, hurricanes. And so I became obsessed with the idea of where can I find the markets that have all of those six things, right, that I just mentioned before, including supply, but they have low property tax, low insurance costs, low land costs, and low construction costs. And I found that out of 323 markets in the United States, there’s only 14 that qualify. And so all of our construction of townhomes is in those markets. It’s just basic math, right? So today, if I am building something in Texas, right, 2.5, 2.6%, property taxes is what I’m going to see, that there’s places in the United States with high rent growth that are at 0.5% in property taxes. So what you’re doing is you’re basically making it so much easier to hit net operating numbers because you’re not paying that much in property taxes.
Same thing for insurance. There’s markets in the us, especially in Florida, where you’re paying two to $3,000 a unit per year just in insurance, but there’s other markets where that number is eight 50. So what we did was we gamed the system, we gamed the system to our favor. We said, let’s just figure out everything that prevents us from making profit and figure out which markets in the US are most likely to make us that profit, and then look at job growth and income growth on top of it. So the best markets in the United States today this will change are Reno, Nevada. Reno has extremely low property taxes and insurance, very high growth because Reno is the cheapest Californian city in Nevada. Lemme repeat it, is the cheapest Californian city in Nevada because there’s all these people that want to get rid of California taxes, myself included, and basically go out and establish a base over there and start doing a lot of their accounting from Reno, and they’re still 20 minutes from the Californian border, fifth largest market in the world.
So they can serve this market without dealing with its stupid property. Well, all kinds of taxes. That’s an example of why Reno is unique. It has low cap rates. So Western cap rates influenced by California. So when I exit, I get low cap rates, which is high prices. My construction costs are really low, property taxes is really low insurance, really low. Now, you take that example and apply it across the board in the United States, and you come up with other markets, northwest Arkansas, some parts of Kansas City only some parts, some parts of Indianapolis because property taxes are by county. So sometimes within the same metro you’ll find a really bad county and a really good county, right? So Indianapolis, it’s only a part of Indianapolis, Kansas City. It’s only a part northwest Arkansas. Phenomenal market, absolutely incredible market. Raleigh, North Carolina, once again, some parts of Raleigh, North Carolina work.
Some parts of Orlando work though we haven’t built anything there because we’re afraid of the hurricanes, but definitely some of the numbers work for Orlando as well. They don’t work for Miami, they don’t work for Tampa, they don’t work for Jacksonville, but they work for Orlando for one weird reason, a category five hurricane when it hits a city that is on the shore will create insane destruction, but by the time it gets a hundred miles inland, it turns into a category three. So Orlando has never been flooded, whereas Tampa has been flooded, so has Sarasota, so has Jacksonville, so has Miami. So basically the fact that Orlando is a hundred mile inland protects it from the most fierce hurricanes. And so overall its numbers are better.

Austin:
Alright, time for one last break, but stick with us. We’ll be right back. Welcome back to on the market. Let’s pick up where we left off. Now, let’s say an investor’s getting started, their backyard is too expensive, and so they’re looking out of state, would you recommend in 2025 or this current market cycle that they look at single family or should they just stick to multifamily?

Neal:
There’s no logical reason to stick to single family other than if it helps you get started. So what I would say is when you’re doing your first investment, do whatever helps you get started? Get over the mental barriers of investing. If you’re going to go out of market, you’re already doing something that’s a barrier. A lot of people are uncomfortable doing that. So maybe you jump over that barrier first and go for single family, whatever you need to do to do your first one. But once you’re a landlord, you’ve already implemented it. You should do those things that scale better, which is multifamily. So I often tell people, it really doesn’t matter what you start with, it’s the second unit, the third unit that you have to really ask yourself the hard question of why am I doing something?

Austin:
And right now, is your team still buying and developing or are you pencils down? What are you seeing in this current market cycle? Does it scare you? Does it excite you? What are your thoughts?

Neal:
It scares the heck out of me and also excites me. So in my mind, even though the prices of multifamily are remarkably better than they were two and a half years ago, they’re down about 21% as a nation. They’re individual markets that are down 25 or even 28%. They’re a lot better, no doubt. But here’s the problem, expectations of cap rates have changed. Expectations of interest rates have changed. So I have now lost 50 plus offers that I’ve made on value add multifamily properties, usually around 200 units. And so I’m no longer making them because my chances of winning are zero because I’m not willing to create profit in Excel if you understand what that means, right? So feel that the gap between buyers and sellers is still remarkably high, and maybe it’ll come down if there’s more distress. In the multifamily market, there doesn’t appear to be any evidence of distress.
I can’t find any. Yes, there are properties that are distressed because there’re going back to the bank, but that has nothing to do with market distress. That property, as soon as it goes back to the bank, when the bank puts it on sale, there’s 30 offers, right? That’s not distress. That just means that the people who were in that property, well, their distressed, sorry for their loss, but that has nothing to do with market distress. There’s no market distress that I can find anywhere in any market in the United States, like pick a market, any market, no matter how much they overbuilt, there’s no distress that I can find. There’s always 10 or 15 offers, and there’s always people paying overvalue. So I’m completely, I have banned my team from making any value add offers. We are not allowed to underwrite any value add properties. So what are we doing?
We have all these employees. They have to do something. So the first thing that we are doing is we have two completely different businesses, right? They don’t share employees. The first business is in the business of taking raw land and converting it into entitled land, right? Entitled, zoned permitted, all of those kinds of things. This takes about 12 to 18 months. Typically, that group is extraordinarily greedy. Right now, I’m not in greed mode. I’m in, oh my God, let me just find everything that I can. Now, this doesn’t mean that I changed my discipline. I never allow a broker to be involved. We look at 7,000 parcels of land. We make over a hundred offers a year. 100 of them are directly to the homeowner or to the landowner. The landowners have actually no clue what their land is worth, and maybe they’re right. They do know what their land is worth, but the broker always thinks it’s worth three times as much.
So there’s a property in northwest Arkansas, beautiful property bounded by trees, owned by a 67-year-old lady lives there, her husband’s died, and two years ago she hired a broker. His name’s Mike. And Mike basically offered the property to us for 2 million and then eventually hiked the price to 3 million. We didn’t agree. Our contract with Mike was for six months. It expired. Eventually we went and offered the lady $800,000. She accepted, and ironically enough, Mike still got paid, but only at the $800,000 level because she didn’t want to cut him out. So we didn’t end up paying the commission, but instead of $3 million, we paid $800,000. The property called Liberty Bill is 10 and a half acres in northwest Arkansas. So bottom line is we found that we actually could not run our business if we involved brokers. So we took the hard path, which is about 10 x more work for our side.
We have a team of the Filipinos to get that done, but we only make offers on off market pieces of land and on off market pieces of land. The prices today are sick. So what we do is we basically put 10 properties in contract a year. We build four, we flip four and two, we take losses and walk away from. So four of them, we take 14, 15, 16 months, and then we are ready and we build them using institutional equity. Today, we are only doing fund equity. We’re not raising money. If you’ve gone to our website, you haven’t seen anybody kind of send you an email saying, Hey, invest in this project. That’s been a long time. So it’s institutional and fund equity that understands what we are doing. So we’ll build four, and then we’ll flip four. So typically we’ll buy a property for 2 million, and then we’ll sell it six to 12 months later for four or 5 million because not everyone’s as patient as us, and not everyone has in-house zoning and permitting and entitlement.
So they would’ve probably paid a lot more because if you hire third party zoning entitlement and civil construction services, you are paying a ton of money for all these services. I’m not. I have an on-staff architect. So instead of paying $250 an hour for architects, I’m paying $65 now. And the other thing is I’m no longer in the business of design. We have a certain number of apartment buildings that we’ve designed, and we have 23 different townhome buildings that we’ve designed. Some with smaller town homes, some with bigger, some with end cap, some with two car garages, some with one car garages, some with large closets, some with bigger windows. We’re done with our design phase. Now our only job is we take a piece of land and try to see if we can fit the widgets properly, just Lego style. By doing this, my architectural costs are down 95%, right? Whether I’m building apartments or townhomes, really doesn’t matter. It’s all prebuilt buildings. So we don’t do any design work. In other words, we are the least creative people that you will ever find.
So we spent our creativity in the initial design work, and now it’s widgets. We basically say we want to be the Tesla of mid-market construction, except we never want to build a cyber truck or a model S or a model X. We want to build a lot of model threes and a lot of model Ys, and that’s it. We are a factory with two models, a town hall model and an apartment model. That’s what we’re going to give to the world. We are not going to be creative, and we are never going to win any design awards. That’s our business, and it works beautifully. So we built four, we flipped four, yes, we lose money on two because there was something in the land. Maybe there was a rock under the surface, which was expensive. Maybe the slope was too much. Maybe the city didn’t like our vision after.
Usually the city initially will give us an indication. Sometimes they change their mind later. So we lose about $200,000 on two parcels of land, and that’s what we’re doing at this current time. Then we have a second division, and that second division only does one thing. It reaches out to every lender in every broker in America asking if there’s a property that is in construction that’s maybe two thirds complete, or maybe it’s all the way complete, but has nobody living in it, or maybe it’s just started lease up, and we try to buy those properties because the true value add today in America is not a multifamily class. C value add properties, those things have no value. All the value add numbers that I’ve seen, I haven’t yet found one that excites me. But you know what’s happening today? There’s several thousand developers that built buildings starting in 2022.
Back then, interest rates were very low, and you could get up to a 90% leverage loan, so you only had to put 10% down. Now, all of those buildings are actually worth 20% less than the loan amount, 20% less. So all the equity gone, but it’s actually 20% under the loan amount. Can you imagine how terrified the banks are with all of these properties? Because they know that the loan amount is 20% more than the value of the property. They need solutions. We provide them. We buy directly from banks. I’m currently negotiating a property in Lakeland, Florida. 160 units only has four tenants, but I know what its rents are. So I’m going to buy the property in cash from the bank. I’m not going to put debt on it for six months, but during those six months, I will be going through furious lease up, and then I’ll put a bridge loan on it. That’s equivalent to the amount I paid the other bank. So now I’m in for $0, and then I will keep the property for 10 years. The moment I can get to $0 in. I don’t have a business plan with that property. The business plan is let’s keep it for as long as we live because there’s no basis. It’s infinite returns. I have not been able to do infinite returns since 20 15, 20 14. Infinite returns are back because new construction properties have high cap rates.

Austin:
That’s very exciting. That’s awesome. Unfortunately, we are closing out of time. Is there any place where people can learn more about you, Neil?

Neal:
Sure. Multifamily University. So either type the two words, multifamily university, go to multifamily U. We post 10 of our webinars there. They’re all data driven. Our next webinar is a two-parter about the impact of artificial intelligence on real estate and data centers. We will be launching two funds, one to build data centers or actually invest in land for data centers. I don’t want to build any. And then the second one is going to be a geothermal fund because the US is going to run out of energy extraordinarily fast, and geothermal is the solution to that and the timing for Geothermals, right? So we’re going to launch a fund there. So that’s an example, but there’s Airbnb webinars there. There’s single family, there’s multifamily, there’s self storage, there’s industrial. These are all free. We have no subscriptions. We have no intention of ever selling you a class. Just take it, use it. Enjoy.

Austin:
No, this was awesome. This was so informative, and if you’re listening, I hope that you took away some good nuggets too. Thank you, Neil. This was awesome.

Neal:
Thanks so much. Bye-bye.

Austin:
That’s it for today’s episode of On The Market. If you found this information helpful, leave a comment down below and make sure to subscribe, leave a review and share it with fellow investors. Thanks for listening, and we’ll see you next time.

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