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Do you dream of ditching your nine-to-five and living off rentals full-time? Today’s guests did more than dream—they engineered their exit from corporate America and built a $10,000,000 rental portfolio in just FOUR years. And the best part? They did it without a ton of money and without swinging a single hammer!

Welcome back to the Real Estate Rookie podcast! Niti Jamdar and Palak Shah spent 15 years climbing the corporate ladder before realizing they weren’t really building wealth. So, they set a clear goal—to leave their W2 jobs in just five years with real estate. They ended up crushing that goal, building a multimillion-dollar portfolio in just four years!

If you want to scale your real estate portfolio fast, there’s arguably no better investing strategy than the BRRRR method (buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat), which allows you to continuously tap into your equity to buy more rental properties. In this episode, Niti and Palak will share their “SCALE” framework, step by step, which simplifies this strategy so that even the greenest investor can understand it!

Ashley:
If you’ve ever wondered how to take your real estate investing from just a side hustle to a multimillion dollar business, today’s guests have the exact blueprint.

Tony:
Yeah, that’s right, Ashley. They’ve built a $10 million portfolio and engineered their escape from the corporate world, all while raising a family Medium Poll created a framework that makes their B strategy so efficient, they’re able to build long-term wealth incredibly fast,

Ashley:
And they’re pulling back the curtain on this entire process from market selection to financing strategies and even more. If you’ve been curious about supercharging your portfolio, but you weren’t exactly sure where to start, this is the episode you’ve been waiting for. This is the Real Estate Rookie podcast and I am Ashley Kehr.

Tony:
And I’m Tony j Robinson, needy Pollock. Welcome to the Real Estate Rookie podcast. Super excited to have you both.

Niti:
Thank you so much for having us.

Tony:
Thank

Ashley:
You for having us. We’re excited too. Now, you guys have been experienced podcasters on the BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast, but welcome to the Rookie Podcast where our listeners are way more engaged, way more awesome. For the audience, can you give a high level overview of your portfolio?

Niti:
I love it. Thank you again for having us. So yeah, to give everyone a quick backstory, Paula and I were in corporate for a long, long time. We followed the traditional route of getting a college degree, trying to climb the corporate ladder for about 15. I did it for 15 years. Paula did it for around 17 years.
And then we realized we needed to kind of build wealth. We had income, but we didn’t really have wealth and we really wanted to spend time with our little kids. So we started investing in real estate this back in 20 15, 20 16, and we started with just single family rentals, rent ready rentals. And we quickly realized we wanted to scale a little bit faster than that. We wanted to be able to retire in four to five years instead of waiting 15, 20 years to be able to retire. And so we found the birth strategy. We scaled in about four years. We built a 10 million portfolio of single family homes, but also duplexes, triplexes, quadplexes, slightly larger properties as well. And we were both able to quit our corporate jobs and now we do real estate full time.

Tony:
So you guys have built a successful portfolio, and I think a lot of rookies are in the same situation that you guys were in where they’re working the corporate gig, they did the American Dream, went to school, got a career, they’re doing all the things, but they just feel that something’s not right. So I guess maybe tell us about that moment when you realized that the corporate lifestyle wasn’t for you. What specifically triggered that decision to go all in on real estate? Did you guys have a horrible boss? Was it something else that happened? What was that moment for you guys?

Niti:
We all had that.

Palak:
We worked till our late thirties and everybody told us that that was the right thing to do, become financially stable, and then think about having kids. So that’s what we did. And so we had two kids back to back and I remember, and that was maternity leave is next to nothing. And I remember going to work and on a conference call and I had to do it from my office. I had to pump while I was on the conference call and I’m sitting there pumping and trying to get on this call and do the thing, and I’m looking around and I’m like, wow, is this what I worked so hard to achieve? And that day onwards, every day I was like, I got to get out of this. I can’t do this anymore. I want to be with my kids. It’s just feels very unnatural that you work so hard and then you never see what you waited so long to achieve.
And we’re first gen immigrants. We don’t have a village. We were constantly struggling. We were stressed out all the time. And so after months of turmoil, and I mean as a woman who’s built up a career, I felt like I was letting everybody down by choosing to get out of corporate. And so months later, we decided we were going to become a single income family, and I started pursuing real estate full time. So we would work on it together in the evenings when the kids were asleep. And then during the day, I would go off and do whatever I could with the two kids. And it’s funny how in corporate you feel like everybody else decides what your capability is and how far up you can go. And then when you start working for yourself, you’re like, wait a minute, I’m way better than I thought I was.

Ashley:
And you’re still used to one downside is you’re so used to somebody else telling you what to do or which path to take or whatever in a W2 job. And then when it’s just you, the possibilities become endless because you’re not told what to do. But sometimes that shift is hard not having that guidance or even somebody say, you have to work from nine to five. Now it’s like, oh, maybe I can just sleep in today. And getting into that work mode too, having to push yourself. It really is a drastic change.

Palak:
Or the other way around, if you’re really motivated and excited, you could really go off and overwork yourself. You really have to understand what your rhythm is and what works best and how to make decisions without seeking other people’s approval. And what is your strategy and what is the right step? And I completely agree that people, that’s why I think us as real estate investors, we start chasing all the shiny objects because the opportunities are endless. And nobody tells you that you have to stay in this lane. This is your strategy. Stop looking at other

Tony:
Discipline I think is something that’s very hard for anyone that’s entrepreneurial to really focus in on. But I couldn’t agree with you more Pollock, because I remember the moment as an adult when I really realized that I couldn’t be a traditional W2 employer for the rest of my life. And it was my first big boy job after college. And I came in, I thought I crushed it. I thought I was doing incredibly well. My annual review comes up and they’re heaping all this praise on me. Tony, you’ve done a phenomenal job. You’ve been such an invaluable part of this organization. And they gave me a 2% raise. And at the time, I think I was making $65,000. So I went from 65,000 to 67,000 and I was like, what am I doing? Is this really all that’s there? And I think the benefit of being an entrepreneur is that you get to decide and prove what your value is in the marketplace. And if you are valuable, people will reward you by paying you money. And if you are not valuable, people will show you that by not paying you money. So it is very clear, but I think the benefit is that you get to prove to yourself how valuable you are

Niti:
A hundred percent.

Tony:
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Ashley:
So once you made that transition from quitting your corporate position and you’re focused on real estate, what kind of things did you get into? Did you chase a different strategy and try different things out? Kind of tell us the path you took from there.

Niti:
Yeah, we tried everything under the sun. So we actually got some really good advice when we first got started. So we had a couple of mentors and one thing that we learned pretty early was they said, look, you build wealth in real estate by owning real estate for long period of time. You don’t create wealth in real estate by buying and selling constantly. So that became sort of our motto is like, all right, whatever we are going to do, we are going to buy real estate and hold onto it for a long period of time.

Ashley:
You chose Burr strategy. Most people are if they don’t do a burr’s because they’re scared of the rehab process, so maybe they choose a different strategy. How did you become comfortable and confident in managing contractors managing rehabs to actually be successful at the birth strategy?

Niti:
Yeah, and I think that is really one of the hardest part, as you said at the birth strategy, is like how do you manage the rehab? And especially the way we do rehabs is we don’t have to be at the job site every day. That was, again, one of our things. We didn’t want to be there every day.

Palak:
And

Niti:
Even doing a lot of DIY projects, we’re definitely not doing DIY because that just takes up so much of your time and there’s not great ROI on that we could easily outsource it. So the key is to really find good contractors and you have to talk to at least 10 or 15 contractors to be able to find the right one and knowing what kind of rehab you have to do. So figuring out what is the right level of rehab even, are you rehabbing it to flip, which we were not, or are you only rehabbing it to put it just a little bit of paint on the walls where it really to be able to bur it needs to be somewhere in the middle is the Goldilocks owners. Not too much rehab, but also not too little rehab. And

Palak:
Knowing who your stakeholders are, right? You need to know who are your stakeholders, who are you doing? Who’s your end customer that you’re rehabbing for? So one of them is of course your tenant. You want to make sure your properties appealing, comfortable and safe for your tenants for that area. What are the other products that are being offered and how to make your product stand out for the right price. But then the other stakeholder in the burr strategy is the appraiser. You want to make sure that your property appraises to where you want to do appraise so you can get the cash out that you need so you can move it to the next deal and the next deal.

Niti:
And again, once you learn the skill of how to estimate rehabs, mistakes will be made along the way. That’s why we always say, whenever you’re coming up with a rehab estimate, always put 10 to 15% contingency at the end of it because you know that your rehab is always going to go. There’s always be surprises at every rehab. There’s steps that you can take to minimize those surprises. Things like doing a home inspection and knowing ahead of time what surprises may come up. And then building that into your rehab budget, getting two or three different quotes from two or three different contractors so you can really kind of vet that you’re actually covering everything and not missing anything, and you’re getting a reasonably good

Palak:
Quote. And knowing that contractors are creatives, they’re creatives, you have to be the one to manage the project well. You have to be the one to keep things organized, document things, and make sure you’re staying under budget and on time and you’ve hired this person to do the work. Once you take ownership of that, it becomes a lot easier.

Niti:
And one more tip, if I may. So it is really having a good boots on the ground is so critical. Having somebody who can be your eyes and ears, who can visit the property a couple of times a week, maybe three times a week, sending you pictures and videos of what’s going on, and that they’re an independent third party so that they can be

Palak:
Unbiased,

Niti:
Unbiased right as the rehab is going on. And so having that really ensures that the rehab is coming along well and also paying your contractor in certain phases as in when the rehab gets done. So don’t pay 50% upfront to your contractor because a lot of people do that. And so paying the contractor for the work after it’s done and having it inspected by a third party is really, there’s so many safeguards that you can put into place, but ultimately, as you said, Ashley, it is still a risk. But at the end of the day, that’s a skill worth mastering and you will make mistakes. But Brr is such a forgiving strategy in that sense that it’s not like a flip where if you go over your budget, then you’re going to lose money on that property, right? With Brr, you can do a cash out refi, maybe you get a little bit less equity upfront, but because you’re keeping holding onto it for a long period of time, you can refi in two or three years when the equity goes up and the property value goes up and then pull that cash out eventually.

Tony:
Now, need and Pollock have already given us a glimpse into their framework for scaling, but how exactly did they implement this system? So up next, they’re going to share specific strategies they use to literally double the size of their portfolio, including their commercial financing techniques most rookies never even think about. But first, a quick message from today’s show sponsors.

Ashley:
Okay. Welcome back from our short break. So Pollack, you mentioned the appraisal process and how this is also a key component of doing the B strategy. Can you give us some tips and tricks as to what we should be focused on for an appraisal? What will actually increase the value of the property?

Palak:
Yeah, that’s a really good question. I think that the big thing is you have to really understand what properties are being appraised around, where your property is and at what amount. So doing that comparison will allow you to know what rehab you should be doing. That’s the easiest way to figure that out. And then knowing that when the appraiser walks in the door, you want to make sure that they’re wowed. They want to look at a property and be like, yes, this is a fully renovated property. So a lot of times I notice that people especially burn investors, they say, oh, it’s a rental, so we’re only going to do this or that, and that’s not going to wow your appraiser, and that’s not going to make them appraise your property higher. You want to make sure they walk in the door and they feel like it’s a fully renovated property.
We also recommend preparing a document for your appraiser that you can send to them, because most appraisers, the way they work is they’re going to be on the field running around doing their site visits certain days of the week, and then certain days they’ll sit down and they’ll sit at their desk and they’ll prepare the reports By then that apprais already forgotten about your property, they’re going off of their pictures and some of the notes that they took. And so what you want to do is you want to prepare a document and give it to the appraiser that lists everything that you have done to the property. Really nice pictures because sometimes the property is already rented out by the time the appraiser goes in, and then you are at the mercy of how clean your tenant is and how tidy they’re keeping that place. So you want to have nice pictures for the appraiser that are professionally taken before the tenant moved in and providing them that packet is going to allow them to really view your property in the light that you want it to be seen.

Niti:
Yeah, every time, by the way, we’ve sent, we’ve increased our appraisal by 10 to 15,000, just having it documented. Here’s all the work at it. Here’s the breakdown of we updated the kitchen. This is how much it costs us to do all the upgrades. This is the before and after pictures. These are the relevant comps that we think,

Palak:
Yes, put in the comps in there because you don’t want the appraisal to choose their comps. You want to give them,

Niti:
Nudge them a little bit, nudge

Palak:
Them, and very respectfully you are just giving them all the information. Then it’s up to them whether to take that into consideration or not. But preparing that really helps. And if you are local, don’t be afraid to go meet the appraiser at the property and learn from them and ask them questions. What all do you need? I’ve also noticed a lot of times appraisers don’t go into certain parts of the property if nobody’s showing it to them. So if you give them a list of items, there have been times when appraisers don’t realize there is a garage or there is a mud room where there is an entire laundry area, unless you list it, especially in these rentals when you’re renovating old homes, they prepare certain areas like the washer dryer, we’re going to get creative and put it somewhere, and so the appraiser may not even know that they need to go there and check for that. So listing all those things really helps.

Tony:
Yeah, I think one of the best things that a rookie can do as they’re starting the rehab process and they’re eyeing a refinance on the backend that’s going to require an appraisal, is to try and get your hands on other appraisals from that local market. Because if you can see, hey, here’s an appraisal that was done last month and here’s the radius that the appraiser used. In some markets, maybe the radius is only a quarter of a mile. In other markets, maybe the radius is five miles. I know for me, in my suburban neighborhood, the radius was literally like a quarter mile. But in Joshua Tree where I invest, they’ve used comps that were seven miles away because it’s a different landscape. So knowing the radius, how does the appraiser account for variance in lot size? How does the appraiser account for variance in bathroom count? How does the appraiser account for variance in condition? And you can make some guesses, but if you can actually get your hands on something, I think that’s one of the best ways to really educate yourself on how appraisers in that market work.

Ashley:
I actually just had an appraisal done. I just got it back two days ago, and I’m always learning something new by looking at the appraisal. So this appraiser, the property, it didn’t have a first floor bathroom except for in the master bedroom. So there was actually a $4,000 deduction in value because there wasn’t that bathroom that was accessible to the common area, and it was under the functionality part, the line item, but that was something I’d never seen before. I guess this is also probably the first house that hasn’t had a bathroom that isn’t in a master bedroom, but there’s just little unique things there that I wouldn’t even think of that an appraiser can deduct or add points. This property too had a basement and about 40% of the basement was finished and a bedroom was added in there. The bedroom value in the basement was only worth $4,500 compared to a bedroom on the first floor or second floor above the grade was $7,500 per bedroom and value. So just seeing these little tiny things and how these little thousands of dollars in different places can add up or decrease your value.

Tony:
A lot of the appraisal is, it’s like more art than science, and you could have two appraisers go to the same exact property and come up with two different opinions of value. So needy pocket. I guess one question for you guys. Have you ever had to challenge an appraisal? You’re doing your refinance in the backend, the value doesn’t come back where you anticipated it would, and you’ve had to go back and try and get the correct value. Have you guys ever experienced that? And if so, how’d you deal with it?

Niti:
Absolutely. That’ll happen if you’re investing a lot. That’ll happen a few times along the way. And so when it does happen, a couple of things that you could do that we’ve done. So one is you can respectfully challenge the appraisal. So you can kind of send back an email to the appraiser and to the lender to say, Hey, look, these are the comps that we think that really reflect the kind of work that we’ve done in our property, and this is what we think the real value really should be. And again, having that appraisal document upfront that you give to your appraiser does help put your point across even before they write up the report. But you can kind of say, look, you can definitely challenge that and do it respectfully because the appraiser is under no obligation to go back and increase the value.
So if you’re kind of rude or if you’re be like, Hey, you don’t know what you’re doing, this really should be this. They’re just saying, no, thank you. I’m good with where I’m at. And so be respectful when you’re requesting a change in the appraisal. But if it doesn’t happen, then another thing that you can do is just either ask the lender if you can order another appraisal now, you’ll have to pay for that additional appraiser, whatever it is, five, $600 for a different appraisal. So that will come out of pocket for you. But if that can increase your value by a few thousand dollars, it’s going to be more than worth it.

Tony:
I know we spend a lot of time on appraisals, but I think it’s such an important part of nailing the burr process is being able to actually achieve the appraisal that you want. So we appreciate you guys kind of breaking that down for us. But the next thing I want to hit is your scale framework. And I know that you guys have put this together and it kind of underpins how you both have been able to build your portfolio so quickly. So let’s just kind of go through what exactly the scale framework is. So the S, what does the S stand for?

Niti:
S stands for scalable acquisitions and deal analysis. And before I jump into that, if I may offer just a quick of why we came up with a scale framework, because what does it mean? And so when we first started doing Burr, we noticed that people, there is no one way to do burr. People are doing burs in many different ways depending on the kind of rehab they do, who does the rehab, how they finance it, how they even look for deals. Some people were becoming wholesalers so they can get the best deals where some people are like, let me become a contractor so I can save money in the construction piece. So there’s many, many different flavors of burr. So we are like, okay, how do we do implement burr in a way that makes the most sense for our lifestyle and how we want to build our business? Again, kind of going back to time and location freedom, building it in a way that we can build systems and processes and teams and

Palak:
Scale fast

Niti:
And scale fast. So that’s kind of how we came up with the scale framework and that defines every step defines how we specifically did every, implemented every step in the B process. So S stands for scalable acquisitions and deal analysis, so that’s the buy part of the process. So a lot of times people will look for deals in multiple markets or they’ll look at all the deals that are coming to them, but I don’t think that’s the right way to do it. So the right way to do it is kind of put it backwards first, really figure out which market and which zip code you want to invest in, and then identify your specific buying criteria or your ideal property avatar. It’s like really figuring out is it a three bed, one bath you’re trying to buy?
Is it a condo, which we advise against. Condos have HOAs and you really don’t want to do that. But really defining what your ideal property avatar. It should be a three bed, one bath or a three bed, two bath. If you’re just starting out, it’s really good to start small. Don’t start with a three unit or a 10 unit building because that takes a lot of learning curve. So start with a small project, three bed, one bath. You say, okay, I’m going to kind of find a property that needs a new kitchen, a new bathroom, new flooring. And then once you do that and you narrow it down to say, one or two zip codes, that eliminates 80% of the deals that are out there. So now you’re only focusing on the deals that make sense for you, for your strategy, and then start looking at deals. And then the deals that come to you will be, and then when we start looking for properties, we tell all the wholesalers and all the realtors we know this is the kind of property we are looking for in the zip code. So we get all the deals coming to us that are actually what are buying criteria

Palak:
Is. And the more specific you are, the more you’re going to stick in their mind. And now they know that you’re not just somebody who’s dabbling in real estate, you’re serious about it. You’re very specific about your criteria, and that allows them to send those deals off to you. And so having that predictable deal analysis and then building that deal pipeline, getting very specific on your property avatar.

Tony:
I think just one follow up question to that, you hit on an important point that you guys are focusing on the business of scaling, not necessarily the business of finding off-market deals, which is wholesaling. So how are you identifying the wholesalers that you end up working with? Are you going to Facebook groups? Are you going to local meetups? How are you identifying these wholesalers? Where are they all hiding?

Niti:
So it’s all of those things. So once you decide which market you’re investing in, say you’re investing in Philadelphia, I would go on Facebook, type in Philadelphia real estate investors. There’ll be a few Facebook groups that pop up. A lot of them will have anywhere between five to 10,000 members, something like that. Join as many Facebook groups as you can. There will already be both investors and wholesalers in those Facebook groups. You can just post a question in there, Hey, I’m looking for wholesalers. Would you recommend some? And then there’ll be some people who recommend wholesalers or there’ll be wholesalers who will introduce themselves, just build a network of wholesalers. Your first goal should be to give your email to as many wholesalers as you can. Now, when you do a deal with them, you do want to vet them because wholesaling is a wild west. There’s not really a lot of rules around wholesaling and there is around realtors, there is no rules around really. It’s a very new industry, so you have to be careful as to who you’re doing deals with. So you make sure if you do a deal with a wholesaler that you vet them and you check for references and you make sure that’re legit,

Palak:
Never wire money to a wholesaler directly. Yeah, yeah.

Niti:
There’s things that you learn and to anyone really, right? You really want to make sure that you’re sending money to the right people and all that. But yeah, first goal is to get as many wholesalers, as many list as possible, list as possible, Facebook group, Google local meetups, all that stuff.

Palak:
And you’re right, it’s unregulated. So you want to make sure you vet the wholesaler, ask for references, make sure you’re involving a title agent and an attorney if this is your first time. Also, if first time investors, we always recommend for first time investors, it’s okay if you pay a little bit more for the property. Working with wholesalers and buying off market deals, that’s for your second, third deal, first deal, make it as predictable as simple as possible.

Niti:
And we, by the way, still do 50% or 40% of our deals through MLSM

Palak:
Ls. Yeah,

Niti:
There

Palak:
Are some great deals

Niti:
On. So there’s really good deals if you know what you’re looking for. Again, if you have a good Brian criteria, these deals kind of come to you in that

Palak:
Sense. Yeah, our first bur, we found it actually in a Facebook group and a wholesaler had posted it and he said that there is a really cute grandma’s house up for sale. It needs work. Does anybody want it? And I remember we went and saw it, and so is it okay if I tell you guys the story? It’ll take two minutes. So we went with our contractor to look at this property, and this wholesaler is a pretty big name, so they hold open houses. So there’s like 20 people looking at that house, and they do this because they want to make sure that everybody feels like they need to jump on it right away. It’s a good tactic. So we went there, we had no idea how to do any of this. So we went there with our contractor and they were like, if you want it, we need a check for $5,000 written to this title company.
And we’re like, oh, we didn’t even bring the checkbook. Our contractor lived around the corner. So he went home to it and he called his wife and he’s like, can you write a check for 5K? He went and got that check. He gave it to them and he was like, don’t cash it, please. This is just to hold the property. We went home, we wired the money, and then we are like, can you send us a picture of that check torn up? And that’s what we did. And of course, we still work with that contractor because of that.

Ashley:
Yeah, I mean, wow, what a nice contractor to do that for you.

Palak:
Yeah, I mean, you learn these things along the way and build your team who will back you up when you need them.

Ashley:
So let’s move on to the C. What does the C stand for?

Niti:
Yeah, so C is the construction without the DIY, right? So this is the rehab phase in Burr. And really the key here is knowing what kind of rehab you’re doing. So again, looking at comps before you even start the rehab or come up with the rehab budget, look for properties that’s sold in the area that are going to be, that you’re trying to make your property sell for. So if you’re trying to sell your property or get your property to RV for let’s say 200,000, look for properties that are sold in that zip code for around 200,000 that were rehabbed, right? So you’ll see, okay, this is how it did the kitchen, this how did the bathroom. So you can have now have a template to follow to say, okay, if I redo my kitchen and my bathroom and the flooring, that’s what going, give me the $200,000 arv.
So figuring out what your property is going to look like, getting quotes from your contractor, building it that 10 to 15% contingency, and then really putting systems in processes in place to be able to manage your rehab. I think that as we talked about earlier, is really, really important. So we have a WhatsApp number of our contractor. We are always using that for them to send pictures, videos as the rehab is getting done. And same thing with the boots on the ground. So having those systems and processes in place to manage your rehab really, really helps. And again, our goal is to have a nice comfortable place. We put in nice flooring. We always have a template. So again, thinking about scaling, we have a template. So all our kitchens look the same in all our buildings, right? Because yeah,

Palak:
They look exactly the same.

Niti:
We went through once and selected the best looking cabinets and the best looking appliances and the countertops and the flooring. And once you figure that out, you don’t really need to change that. So everything is down to a science and all the contractor has to do is just be like, all right, follow the list.

Tony:
Let me ask, I think one of the bigger challenges for a rookie is finding a good contractor. So let’s say that we dumped you guys in the middle of a brand new city somewhere you didn’t know, somewhere, you didn’t have connections somewhere, you didn’t already have contractors. Where are you going to identify the right folks to work with?

Niti:
Yeah,

Palak:
Yeah. Nii has a really good hack on finding contractors.

Niti:
So one is of course you could go online and look for, you can go to Facebook groups, you can Google Angie’s website. It’s called Angie’s Now instead of Angie’s List, there’s different websites that you can look for to get a list of different contractors that you’re going to call. I never worked with the first one. Always call 10 or 15 contractors. One really cool hack that Palak was talking about is depending on which city you live in, you can go to the county website for that city and search for a house that was recently renovated. So find a house on Zillow that’s sold for say, $200,000 or whatever the amount you’re trying to get your property to look like. Put that address in the county website.
It’ll show you sometimes what the permits are for that property if rehab was done on that property. And in the permit is the name of the contractor. So not every house is going to have a permit that was rehabbed, but it’s a really quick way. If I did it right now, I’d probably in an hour, I’d find at least 10 to 15 contractors using that. And I know these contractors are doing business in my neighborhood because that’s how I found them. I already know what the product looks like because I saw the pictures of those properties in Zillow

Palak:
And they pulled the permit.

Niti:
They

Palak:
Didn’t just wing it.

Niti:
Exactly right. So another plus is you want your contractor to pull the permit. So you do that, and you’ll come up with 10 or 15 contractors, call every single one of them. A few questions you want to ask them, how big is your crew? You don’t want somebody who’s just like a one man army because it’s going to take forever to finish your project, at least two or three people on their crew, if not more. You want to ask for how much do they charge per a kitchen and a bathroom? And then compare the rates for different contractors to make sure you’re not getting charged a lot and tell your contractor that you’re trying to do a rental, not a flip, because that also kind of makes a difference in the materials they use.

Ashley:
Yeah. So we’ve talked about the S, we’ve talked about the C, and now we’re going to talk about the A for Ashley. So is it you need to become friends with Ashley, you need to listen to Ashley. What is the A

Niti:
Stands for adding cashflow, right? And so this again goes back to figuring out how you can maximize the rent for that house. So are you deciding the right kind of finishes? Like for instance, we always put in a washer dryer in all our properties. We always put in stainless steel appliances. We always put in brand new cabinets and granite countertops because again, those are small things that don’t cost a lot, but they really look good and they attract a lot of great tenants. So how do you get your listing to stand out is by picking the right finishes that don’t cost a lot, but really maximize the rent that you can get.

Palak:
And then adding cashflow is all about how to manage properties in a way that not only maximizes your rent, but also makes your tenant happy without you physically answering all their questions. It’s all about how to get out of the way and have a team manage your tenants. And that’s how you can scale the borough process is by not becoming the property manager. And if you are the property manager, still having a team in place that does all of the day-to-day operations of managing your tenants.

Niti:
Yes. And one last thing I’ll add is having the tenant. If we find a good tenant, we never increase their rent for as long as they’re there because we want, one of the biggest costs that you’ll have is the turnover between tenants and the vacancy. And so if you find a good tenant, just keep them there forever in 3, 4, 5 years if you can. And then when they move out, you can always then increase the

Palak:
Rent. And when we go buy properties that a landlord has owned for a long time, you’ll find that the rents are way under market. There’s a reason for that. It’s because they’ve kept that good tenant at low rent because it costs a lot more to go kiss a bunch of frogs until you find another good tenant. So that’s what they’re doing, right? That’s basically what we’re repeating.

Tony:
Well, we’ll be right back with medium Pollock after our final ad break, but Ricky’s, we just hit 100,000 subscribers on the real estate rookie YouTube channel, which is an incredible thing to say out loud. So thank you to all of the rookies for coming on this journey with us. We love, love, love making this content for you. And if you haven’t yet subscribed, you guys can find us on YouTube at realestate rookie. We’ll be right back after a quick break. Alright guys, so we’re back here with N and Pollock, and we’re going through the scale framework, and we’ve already hit the S, the C, the A. So let’s finish things off by talking about the L and the E. So what does the L in this framework stand for?

Niti:
So L stands for leverage and commercial finance, which is the finance part of B, the refi part of Brr. But really it also includes the how do you fund the initial purchase and the rehab, right? Commercial financing is really one of the most important things if you’re trying to scale your rental portfolio. And that’s one thing that we learned pretty early on and public call how many 90 banks to really figure it out. And it takes a while to figure it out. I come from a finance background, it took me like six months to even

Tony:
Wait, did you say 9 0 90 banks?

Palak:
So you have to understand, we started when it was very tough to get financing for new investors. It’s much easier now, and we didn’t know how commercial financing worked. So in calling 90 banks, it allowed me to learn about commercial financing and found a lender that was a right fit for us.

Tony:
I love that because we talk so often about the power of talking to multiple lenders and getting exposure to different banks because every bank, every credit union has a slightly different product offering. So Pollock, when you were calling these places, just run us quickly through your script. What were you saying? What questions were you asking?

Palak:
If somebody wants to replicate this process, it start with a Google sheet slash spreadsheet. That’s where everything starts in our world. So build a giant spreadsheet to remember which bank I called, what was the number, what was the contact that I talked to, because the first person you talk to will probably not be the right person. They’re going to ask you questions and then transfer you to someone else who I talk to. Who am I waiting for a call back from? And then once I do get a call back, just continue populating the spreadsheet with the terms that they talk to you about and ask questions. And if you’re a brand new investor and you don’t know what the terms are, then feel free to ask them that. Like, Hey, what should I consider? There’ll be points at closing, there’ll be interest rates, there’ll be tons of things that they can go over and everybody’s slightly different.
So as you start populating that spreadsheet, you are going to learn a lot and you’re going to understand the lingo as you start talking to more and more. It’s all about repetition, right? And we hear a lot of new investors feel this imposter syndrome, like, I’m not an investor. How can I talk knowledgeably? Well, it’s all about repetition. The more you do it, the more confident you become and the less you feel like an imposter. And then when you call lenders, make sure that if you don’t have an email address with a proper website already, go buy a domain name and get a proper email address so you come across as a legit investor instead of [email protected], which is fine. But if you want to come across as a legit investor who means business, make sure you are coming across that way by getting that email address, having a company name, having an elevator. What is it called? Elevator. Elevator pitch. Elevator pitch where you can explain what you do in 30 seconds. Hey, my name is Pollock. I’m investing in Baltimore area. We’re investors. We buy distressed properties, we renovate them and we rent them out. We’re looking for lenders to help us scale this business. Are you the right person? Just figure out what you’re going to say. Write it out, script it out. And then once you have that down, you can build your 90 lender spreadsheet.

Tony:
I want to give a quick hack here because I actually tested this out a couple months ago, but I went into chat GPT, and I said, I need a list of 100 banks and credit unions within a 50 mile address of my city, exclude any national banks like Chase, bank of America, et cetera. It asked me a few follow-up questions and then it worked for 62 minutes is how long chat GBT worked on this response. It came back with 100 local credit unions and regional banks with phone numbers, names, and websites for each one of them. So if you want to shortcut the building of that list, go to something like chat GBT. But I think that’s an incredibly cool

Palak:
Go to chat GBT.

Tony:
Yeah.

Palak:
And better yet have chat GPT script out your script, your elevator pitch as well.

Tony:
Well guys, let, let’s finish things off by talking about the E. So what is the E in the scale framework?

Niti:
So E stands for exponential growth, right? And really if you do everything that we said, which is focusing on, there’s really three things that you want to focus on to be able to scale your portfolio. One is your mastering deal analysis, because without that, it’s hard for you to scale. Don’t rely on your contractor to do that, for your realtor, to do that for you. You really need to master deal analysis. Second is mastering commercial finance, right? So everything from hard money to when you go to refi, really want to master that to be able to scale. And the third piece is managing your team. So managing your contractor, managing your realtor, managing your property manager, learning those skills of how you’re going to use them so that they’re doing their job really, really well. And then putting in systems and processes and teams along the way that really help you scale. So that’s really exponential growth is when once you do all these things, and as we said, you could build a business just off of wholesaling or just being a construction company. And eventually if you want to do that, you can, but then don’t let that get in the way of building your portfolio because ultimately it’s about creating wealth. And

Palak:
Every piece of the board process is its own active business. Like you’re saying, wholesaling and construction, all of that is its own active business. Could you build all of those? Absolutely. But should you focus on building wealth and passive income? If that’s what you’re after, that’s what we did. That’s what the scale framework is all about.

Ashley:
Well need Pollock. Thank you so much for joining us today on the Real Estate Rookie podcast. We are so thankful to have you to share your experience and your journey with the rookie investors. Can you let them know where they can reach out to you and find out more information?

Palak:
Yeah, you can follow us on Instagram at Open Spaces Academy. That is the best way to get in touch with us.

Niti:
Yeah, thank you so much for having us. It was great being here.

Ashley:
Thank you for having us. And will you guys be at BP Con this year in Las Vegas?

Niti:
Yes, I think I’m certainly going to be. And I’m actually doing a three hour session in BP Con, so yeah.

Ashley:
Awesome. Tell us about that real quick. Give us the elevator pitch.

Niti:
So the elevator pitch for that is really learning. So it’ll be the scale framework that we talked about, but in much more detail, right? Things that are working in this market that you need to be doing right now for every step in the process, case studies of deals, if you’ve done everything from single family to duplexes to even large 10, 15 unit buildings, there’ll be q and a and a state of the market in that as well. Things that we are, because we speak to lenders every day, we speak to title agents, realtors, so just what’s happening. And I analyze deals all over the US and every single in many, many markets. Every week. Every week I look at literally 50 to a hundred deals. I have a perspective that I can share on what’s going on in each of the different markets. If you can be there,

Ashley:
Yeah, awesome. You can go to biggerpockets.com/conference and check it out and we’ll see you guys hopefully in Las Vegas.

Niti:
Alright, so there’s a cool freebie that we can give out, which if you’re interested, it has a retirement calculator because a lot of times we’re like, wait, how many rentals do I really need to be able to retire? So having a retirement calculator that we’ve built out that says, here’s how much my income is right now. If I wanted to replace that, how many rentals would I need? There is a building, an investor brand, because as public said, building an investor brand really helps you attract the right team members that you’re going to hire in the future.

Palak:
Also has a plan where you can start from, Hey, where do you want to be five years from now? And reverse engineer back to what steps, what tangible action you can take today to make that happen. So breaking it down and reverse engineering your retirement plan. So building a plan, and then how to take action. And you can use the code BiggerPockets to get it for free.

Ashley:
Well, thank you so much for sharing that with the rookie community. That sounds awesome. I’m going to have to go check that out. So thank you guys so much for joining us today. I’m Ashley. And he’s Tony. And we’ll see you on the next episode of Real Estate Ricky.

 

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You CAN retire early in just ten years IF you save and invest enough. Fortunately, your retirement expenses may be less than you think. Chris Luger, from Heavy Metal Money, didn’t think about retiring early until a divorce made him take control of his finances. He realized that the path to early retirement was only ten years away, so he started saving—a lot. Chris managed to save and invest 70% of his income for seven years, and just last year, he pulled the trigger and retired!

And here’s the kicker—Chris isn’t even touching his retirement portfolio. Thanks to a passive income side hustle, he’s funding his lifestyle without drawing down his nest egg. Chris is proof that even after divorce, with kids and an event-packed lifestyle, you CAN afford to retire early.

What’s Chris’s investment portfolio made up of? What’s his passive income-producing side hustle? And how does he deal with stock market downturns without losing his head? Chris shares the raw realities of early retirement, the biggest struggles to prepare for, and the one thing that makes FIRE truly amazing once you achieve it.

Chris:
From a FI aspect. I mean really it was just a matter of keeping in the back of my mind the 4% rule, and if I could meet that 4% rule with just my investment accounts alone, then I felt safe. Okay, I can leave work, I can just live off of what my real estate’s bringing in. I have other side hustles too, just because no rest for the wicked man. I just love doing things. So hi there. I’m Mindy Jensen.

Carl:
And I’m Carl Jensen,

Mindy:
And this is the Mindy

Carl:
And Carl

Mindy:
On Life After Fi show where we talk about what happens after you reach financial independence.

Carl:
Why do we call this show Life After Phi?

Mindy:
Because we are talking about and talking to people who are living their best life after reaching financial independence. And today we’re speaking with Chris Luger from Heavy Metal Money. Chris, thank you so much for joining us today.

Chris:
Oh, thank you for having me.

Mindy:
I’m really excited to talk to you. I’ve met you a ton of times. I’ve heard a bit about your story at Camp Phi when you spoke. Was it last year or the year before?

Chris:
Yeah, it was last year at Camp Phi, Rocky Mountain

Mindy:
Campfire, Rocky Mountain. Let’s get back into your money story. Just very briefly, I’d like to know how you reached financial independence. So what was your job? What was your savings rate? Let’s talk all the nerd money things.

Chris:
Yeah, just really quickly. So I discovered all of this back in 2015 when I got divorced. So when I got divorced, my wife at the time handled all the money discussions, all the money things. I didn’t really even log into the accounts. I had no idea where the money was going or whatever, and I was working as an enterprise systems engineer for a software company At that time, it was a locally based software company here in Minneapolis. And basically discovering this personal finance community and the financial independence community, I quickly learned that hey, wow, when you’re intentional with your money, you can retire in 10 years. And that was just a super crazy concept for me. I had no idea people could do that. And so then because of that, I started educating myself, reading tons of books, listening to tons of podcasts, and that led me to, like you mentioned, I worked my way up to paying off all my debt. I was able to save and invest nearly 70% of my income for about seven years or so, and that really accelerated my path to financial independence. And around that same time, I also got involved in real estate and so I started investing in real estate as well, and I bought my first property in 2017, and then I worked my way up to, I had 10 rental properties and that’s when I decided to hang it up and leave Corporate America.

Carl:
First of all, metal money does not refer to the actual heavy metals. Those are cadmium, mercury. That would be bad. Those are toxic. And I assume you didn’t discover financial independence from Metallica or Megadeath, which is what heavy metal, heavy metal money is really a reference to. I’m curious, what was your entry 0.2 financial independence? How did you discover this?

Chris:
So heavy metal money is, I took my two passions and kind of smashed them together when I started learning and discovering back in 20 15, 20 16. And I started googling literally how to budget and I first discovered Mr. Money mustache. I discovered Dave Ramsey and I followed Dave Ramsey really closely the first year or so, really just paying off all my debt and focusing on paying off my truck, paying off my house, that type of thing. So that’s really how I discovered it was just really starting to Google how to budget, how to manage money for the very first time. And then it was reading some of those other books like Rich Dad, poor Dad, and then the ABCs of Real Estate Investing, and I started to realize, wow, money can be used a different way.

Carl:
I’ve got one more follow-up. You mentioned David Ramsey and Mr. Money Mustache. Those two have a little bit different viewpoint and I remember Mr. Money Mustache even wrote a post about Dave Ramsey and it wasn’t unkind, but it wasn’t kind either. Where do you land between those two?

Chris:
That’s a great question. I definitely, I’m a student of everyone. I want to learn different points of view, different takes in all sorts of different areas and kind of formulate my own, I guess my own plan, my own strategy. And so that’s kind of what I do. I think Dave Ramsey’s great for those people that are just starting out on their money journey. It definitely helped me, but then I quickly realized, I’m like, well, I’m going to use credit cards. I’m going to leverage these points going to, so there’s definitely some things that I don’t really agree on, but I also agree on living super frugally. I like some of the things that Mr. Money Mustache talks about as well. So yeah, I just make up my own rules based on everything that I learn and it changes, it evolves along the way, so we’re human, we can do that. We can change our mind.

Carl:
Yeah, I think that’s a super great answer because both of those guys are right. Dave Ramsey has lots of good information and so does Mr. Money mustache. It just depends what your temperament is and some of the beliefs towards money. For example, we do not believe in paying off cheap debt. We have a mortgage that we could pay off, but we do not. And yeah, that’s all I have to say about that.

Mindy:
Chris, you said that you had 10 rentals at one point. How many do you still currently own?

Chris:
Yeah, right now I’m down to five. I have five residential properties, and that’s because I’m involved in a much larger commercial project, so I needed to basically sell some of those properties to leverage the cash for this larger project. So I’m migrating away from residential properties to this larger new construction commercial project. I’m learning along the way. We’ve been talking about it since 2023 and there’s been lots of delays, changes, scope creep, but it’s fun. I’m learning along the way. It’s super awesome. I’m excited. We break ground here June 1st, and yeah, I got the loan out for underwriting this week and it’s going to be a fun project for sure.

Mindy:
Is this a solo project or do you have partners with you investing in this?

Chris:
Yep, so a friend of mine we’re partnered 50 50 in the project, so it was just too big for me to bite off on my own. I tried, I attempted, but I would need such a large cash position after talking to a few different lenders. And so I tried to leverage the equity I had in my existing portfolio and a lot of the lenders, commercial lenders are like, well, because it’s a non-owner occupied project, I’m not going to be in the facility. There’s just a lot of, I guess, limitations on what they’ll use as far as my equity. So they wanted a larger cash position. So I went to my friend that he actually brought me the deal, he originally owned the land, this is going to go on, and he’s like, Hey, do you want to do this? And I was like, sure, if you kind of help me coach me along the way. I’ve never done it before and after me trying to do it on my own, I just went back to my friend that said, Hey, will you partner on this with me 50 50? And he was like, sure. So luckily it’s cool. I feel in a really good position. He’s done this before and he’s really been like a mentor for me as well.

Mindy:
Oh, that’s awesome. Okay. Do you have a partnership agreement in place?

Chris:
We do. Oh,

Mindy:
Thank you. They say never ask a question that you don’t already know the answer to. That’s in court, and this isn’t actually court, but I was like, oh, I guess we could edit it out if you’re like, no,

Chris:
No, we absolutely do. Yep,

Mindy:
That makes my heart sing because everybody’s all friendly at the beginning because you’re going to make so much money and everything’s going to go perfectly and at the end, a lot of times friendships are challenged or even kind of broken because you had different definitions or expectations than they did and one of you wants to sell and one of you wants to keep it and neither one of you can afford it by the other one out and yada, yada yada. So I’m just very happy to hear that you have a partnership agreement in place. Let’s go back to your residential real estate, the five units that you have, how much income does that generate in terms of your monthly or annual spending?

Chris:
I basically bring in from my existing rental properties about 6,000 a month. That’s the disbursement for my management company. So I have a full service management company that manages all my properties, self-manage when I had up to three. And I will tell you, it’s just a lot of work and once you get management in place you really can scale and it’s a lot easier to scale and grow your rental portfolio. But yeah, so right now, I mean now my expenses are relatively low. The notes that I have on my existing properties, one is paid off in full and then the other ones, I do have notes on them, but again, they’re all at 4% rate. And so yeah, the rents I get, that’s what I’m using to live on. That was my plan when I left work when I retired, I was going to use the income from my real estate to pay my bills.

Carl:
Okay. Chris, so you became financially independent. Was that based on your rental house portfolio or was that based on your investment portfolio or both?

Chris:
I would say both because I looked at two different things. I looked at what I had in my retirement accounts and my brokerage accounts, but I also looked at my overall net worth and so definitely real estate helped me accelerate that net worth for sure. But I will say from a PHI aspect, I mean really it was just a matter of keeping in the back of my mind the 4% rule, and if I could meet that 4% rule with just my investment accounts alone, then I felt safe in that I can leave work and I can just live off of what my real estate’s bringing in. I have other side hustles too just because no rest for the wicked man. I just love doing things, but yeah, so I think, did that answer your question? I kind of forgot

Carl:
It. Did I find people like you? Pretty interesting because in my experience, Biddy and I’ve been in this community for 12 years now and most people side on the side of real estate or investment, and I call people like you polys. It’s a hybrid model, Carl, it’s a hybrid model. I use both. No judgment here. However you want to live your life, Chris, that’s not to be, so you bet. Should real quick one follow up. You mentioned the 4% rule return for your investments. Do you follow a rule for real estate? Some people want to get the 1%, do you do that or is that out the window?

Chris:
That’s out the window? I mean the 1%, there’s no way I could ever do that here where all my properties are here in Minneapolis and yeah, you can’t do it.

Carl:
Just curious, do you care to tell us what your net worth is when you retired versus what it is now? And I’d also be curious to know how determined your spending, how did you know what amount you needed to retire with?

Chris:
When I started kind of thinking about what life’s going to be like after I retire, I basically made my own spreadsheet. That was my cost of living in retirement and I had a couple different columns and I had one that was bare bones minimum expenses. This is just insurance, taxes, food, gas, just no frills man. Just like this is the minimum I need to live. Then I had another column that was like, okay, well I’m going to go out to eat sometimes I’m going to go to some concerts. I’m going to buy that collectible, iron maiden vinyl or whatever, and so I’m going to do that. And so I started really tracking that for a while and I got super down, I mean really nerdy. I had a bunch of nested rows in there digging into every single utility and what I had spent every month over years and kind of building averages and that type of thing.
And so I determined that. I’m like, man, I have very little expenses. I have no mortgage. I’m a single guy. My utilities are relatively low. And so man, I could live literally off of $2,500 a month. It’s super cheap, kind of a guideline. It is like ballpark, let’s see where I hit. But I knew I wasn’t going to be drawing down on those accounts. I wasn’t going to be drawing down on those accounts until 65 or something. So I didn’t really even, I used it as kind of a target to hit, but then once I made the decision I’m like, you know what? I’m not going to use those accounts for another 15 years, so I’ll just worry about my rental income right now.

Mindy:
For people who are listening who are like, there’s no way you could live off of $2,500 a month. Yes, you really can and you can live a nice life. You’re just not living. What does Paula Pan say? You can afford anything. You can’t afford everything. You’re not doing everything, but you’re making decisions based on I spend approximately 2,500 a month and now you’re making 6,000 from your rentals. So if you have that iron made maiden vinyl come out and you’re like, I need to spend more this month, you’ve got it covered because you’re generating so much more income than you actually need. I did a quick math. 2,500 a month is $750,000 in investible net worth per the 4% rule. When you retired, what was your exact dish? Net worth number?

Chris:
Net worth number was like 2.2.

Mindy:
Okay. Stock market, I’m sorry?

Chris:
Yep. Stock market. I was at 1.3.

Mindy:
Okay, so a little bit over but not grotesquely over, oh, well I guess you’re almost at 1.5, which is two x. Okay. What year did you retire

Chris:
Last year? 2024.

Mindy:
That’s interesting. I don’t know if you’ve been paying attention lately, but the stock market’s a little squidgy.

Chris:
It is, yeah. And I think that’s the thing is, and I know a lot of people are, I went out to lunch with my uncle the other day and he was like, oh my gosh, I wish I would’ve sold this. And he’s kind of in a panic, but I think that’s one thing that you can hedge if you have real, I have income producing assets so I can weather the volatility of the market because I have real estate. And even if the real estate market, if there’s a little bit of a dip or values go down or whatever the case is, I’m still getting rent. People need a place to live. I mean, again, whether that’s the way I think people need a place to live. I have these properties and I provide these quality properties where I’m getting and pretty comparable rents for the area. So I know that I still have these income producing assets, even if the market starts to be volatile and has these drops and like I mentioned before, knowing that I’m not drawing on that right now. I have the runway, I have the time for that to come back and eventually hopefully make again additional gains.

Mindy:
Do you have anything in a bond portfolio? What does your portfolio look like?

Chris:
It’s still like a 60 40 right now.

Mindy:
60 40 bonds or 60 40 stocks. Real estate

Chris:
60. 60 stocks

Mindy:
At 40. What’s 40

Chris:
Bonds? Yep.

Mindy:
Oh, bonds. Okay. So you did retire per the 4% rule with the 60 40 bonds portfolio. Now that’s your equity or your, what is the right word for that? That’s not your real estate, you just added up a hundred percent. So that’s just a hundred percent of your,

Chris:
My portfolio is 60 40,

Mindy:
But what about your real estate? What percentage of your net worth is real estate?

Chris:
Almost half. Like a little over half probably.

Mindy:
Okay.

Chris:
Yeah, of that entire 2.5 or whatever. I mean before a few days ago it was up to 2.7, which was like, wow.

Carl:
Yeah, we live in interesting times. I saw the, we actually don’t have any bonds, but I saw the 10 year bonds spiked like crazy I think last night around midnight or something like that. Chris, is that you selling bonds? I know yields are inverse and all that. So Chris, did you double your bonds around midnight two days ago?

Chris:
No, I did not.

Carl:
Okay. It must’ve been the Chinese then.

Chris:
In all seriousness, these last few days, I’ve just really been kind of like eyes closed, ears closed, not really paying attention. I don’t want to get wrapped up. I would get emotionally, it really starts to take a toll on you. I mean, during Covid for instance, the news, it can hurt you, man. It causes stress, it causes, I mean, I was feeling really bad. I mean, I had to go to therapy. I, I thought the world was ending. All my friends were going to die. I didn’t know what was going on. I mean, I saw a video on TV of refrigerated semi-truck with stacks of dead bodies and you know what I mean? I was like, what’s happening? And it was really scary. And so I got to start to limit what I take in. And so now I’m trying not to pay attention to the news. I don’t want to see the doom and gloom that’s out there.

Carl:
The news is bs. That is a valuable life lesson right there. What’s the biggest difference between what you thought retirement was going to be and what it’s really like?

Chris:
Carl? That is a great question. I guess I knew I wasn’t going to just flick a switch and things were going to be okay. I actually did go through some challenges after what, six months of being retired. There’s really no structure and I have to build my own structure, but I thought I had all these things I wanted to accomplish and I had to run a hundred miles an hour. I thought, okay, I’m going to leave my corporate job on a Friday and Monday I’m going to hit the ground running and I’m going to make all this progress. I had a lot of things I wanted to accomplish. There’s a lot of things I want to do. I want to keep building my blog and my brand and I want to help educate people with financial literacy on savings, spending, investing and different ways to earn money and things like that.
I’m going to continue to do that, but I also started a nonprofit a few years ago and I want to make a bigger impact with that nonprofit. There’s a lot of things I wanted to do and it was challenging. I wasn’t making the progress I thought I was going to be making. It was starting to be scary. And actually I started, I actually was in Milwaukee. I was at a music festival in Milwaukee and I had a panic attack and I didn’t know what was happening and I had to get a plane, I had to fly home early and I was like, what’s going on? What’s happening to me? And it was one of those things, and I’ll say a good, really good friend of mine in the PHI community, Kevin Esta one of my really good friends that I’ve met probably three, four years ago.
But him and I have gotten really close, really cool dude. And I remember I called him and I was just like, man, I dunno what’s going on. And I love this analogy. He said, when you retire, when you leave work, it’s going to take some time. And he goes, think of retirement of, think of it like a manual five speed transmission. And I left work thinking that I was just all the way in fifth gear. I was going a hundred miles an hour. It’s like that’s not how it works. You have to ramp up to it. You have to like, okay, you’re going to spend six months for a year in first gear and then you’re going to spend another six months and then you’re going to go up to second gear, third gear, and then eventually after a few years, well yeah, then you can be running in all cylinders, you’re in fifth gear, ready to hum. And so I just love that analogy. And so that’s one of the things where I didn’t expect that to happen and it was scary. But again, this community has been great and connecting with people, other people in the community has been really wonderful for me and I think it’s really helped me get through the last six months for sure.

Carl:
Yeah, it’s a difficult transition. I like the manual transmission and what I would say about myself real quick is I always operated and level six and I had the car redlined and as soon as I stopped working, I just kept on working and kept it at that whole thing. So I would like to learn how to put the car in neutral and coast for a while. The same qualities that make us eligible for early retirement. We’re pretty determined. We work hard. A lot of smart people in this community, those qualities do not serve us in retirement much of the time.

Mindy:
I would also like for you to learn to put the car in neutral.

Carl:
This

Chris:
May get a lot of, I may hear the, it’s going to come out of the woodwork now. I kind of butt heads with a bunch of people in the personal finance community. I have a financial advisor and I pay fees, I pay assets under management, a percentage of my portfolio. But I feel confident, I feel more confident. I feel I talk with him. I’ve been working with him for years. And what I like about it too is that it’s a more holistic conversation. We talk about more than just my portfolio. He analyzes, gives me talks about my real estate, talks about my kids, talks about my estate, talks about taxes, talks about everything. I mean, and he will also, when I was working and I had a 401k with my employer, I could have him help me look at the funds available in my 401k and those are funds that he’s not managing, but he’s helping me based on my goals, based on where I’m trying to get to.
And I think that there’s so much value in that. And so I remember there was, I kind of really got, I don’t want to say bullied, but it was a couple years ago at some of these FY events and jokingly they were like, well, you could be doing this on your own. Why are you paying someone and all this stuff? And jokingly they’re like, I’m going to take away your PHI card because I’m paying someone. But you know what? I like the idea of having the confidence, not having to just rely and focus on it every day. I can have someone that I can talk to and I talk to him all the time. I talk to him every couple of months and he called me the other day talking about what’s going on right now in the market. And so I dunno, that’s the way I feel. And I think there’s nothing wrong with that if you can still hit your goals and it gives you peace of mind. And again, there are DIY investors that are doing it on their own and I think probably you guys are doing it on your own, I don’t know, but I absolutely think you can do that. I just choose not to and I’m okay with it.

Mindy:
So we had an episode with just a couple of weeks ago with my friend Amy, who is also using a financial advisor and assets under management. And the comments were generally positive about that. I think the PHI community ebbs and flows in what’s acceptable. If you do have a problem with Chris using assets under management, financial planners, please email. We don’t [email protected] because it is Chris’s money, not your money. So don’t worry about what he’s doing with it. He’s clearly doing okay. Would you categorize it as okay or would you categorize it as great? I think I would categorize it as great.

Chris:
Oh, well thank you. No, I’m doing okay. I think that, and again, I understand there are, I get it when you hear people, oh, they’re charging you like one point a half percent or something, I get it. When you get a portfolio that’s so large, it can be a pretty big percentage again over time as well. And I feel as though, again, finding the right balance between who you’re working with and lower fee end up paying like 0.079% on my assets. So I feel comfortable with that.

Mindy:
Chris, you mentioned have covid affecting your mental status and having panic attacks. And in the past, how has this very recent market downturn affected your mental status?

Chris:
I don’t want to say I’m stronger now,

Mindy:
But I think, well, I mean that was five years ago. You could be very much stronger now.

Chris:
But I think I am it. It’s one of those things where because I have the confidence that I have these income producing assets where I’m not necessarily dependent on my portfolio at this time, it’s really not affecting me too much. I’m just, I keep doing what I do and I continually dollar cost average. I’m still dumping money in there every month and I’ll continue to do that. It doesn’t really bother me even though, I mean we are in a little different time, but I do feel as though it is cyclical. This will happen. It hopefully will rebound at some point and I’ll still be in a good position then.

Carl:
Yeah, I’m not going to get into politics, but if the current policies work great, well, I’ll be better off. If they don’t work, then someone else will be voted in and we’ll take another path and that’s the end of that. Do you worry at all about running out of money?

Chris:
It doesn’t prevent me. I’ve actually started to kind of spend a little more than what I was spending when I need to buy a brand new guitar.

Carl:
What kind of guitar is

Chris:
That? This is solar. The name of the brand is Solar, but I just love that matte black carbon, black super, super sick.

Carl:
Is it wood or what is the guitar material?

Chris:
Yeah, no is, I can’t remember if this is mahogany the neck, but yeah, it’s fricking awesome.

Carl:
Oh man, cool.

Chris:
I don’t think I worry about running out of money. I like what you say, Carl. I am more afraid of running out of life.

Carl:
Yeah, I like to, one thought exercise I’ve done lately is I’m about 50 now. So I picture myself in my 80-year-old body and consider my life at 50 and think about when I turn 80. If I don’t do X, Y and Z, am I going to regret that? And I don’t know, there’s different things that’ll work for different people, but that works for me and it makes me want to spend a little bit more and live a little bit because I hope I have quality of life at 80, but I’m not counting on it. Hell, I might not be alive at that point. So

Chris:
I remember one time you shared that you did the Vegas sphere experience. Yes. And you were like, this is what it’s for. Spend the money.

Mindy:
What advice do you have for any new early retiree for a smooth transition into retirement?

Chris:
You are onto bigger and better things I expect. So yeah, I really do like the idea and the mantra that people have said that you retire to something then from something. And so that’s definitely, if you have something that you can retire to that you’re creating a life of purpose and meaning. And not to jump on, I love Doc G’s book, the Purpose Code. It’s super great on creating purpose. And that’s something that I really did. I went through that after six months into retirement, the honeymoon phase wore off and now I’m like, let’s actually truly create the best life I want to live. And maybe that’s volunteering, maybe that’s doing those things or maybe it’s like the job that you really want, but you don’t care how much it pays kind of a thing. Just you want to do good in the world or whatever it is. You want to play guitar, learn an instrument, go to art classes, whatever, man, just do it. I think it’s great.

Mindy:
Alright, Chris, this was so much fun, was I really appreciate your time today. Tell our listeners where they can find you.

Chris:
Awesome. Thanks so much for having me. I really appreciate it, both of you. The best place to go is my blog at Heavy Metal Money and you’ll find all my socials there, my YouTube, all that stuff. So heavy Metal Money and I look forward to connecting with people. And you know what, let’s hit a show sometime I travel to hit cool shows in different cities too. Let’s rock out.

Carl:
Oh heck yeah. We have Red Rocks right here, which is, oh

Chris:
Dude, did you see what’s announced at Red Rocks?

Carl:
No.

Chris:
What? Grunge

Carl:
On the Rocks,

Chris:
Dude. Really?

Carl:
Let’s do it.

Chris:
That sounds

Mindy:
Awesome.

Chris:
Grunge on the rocks. It’s, I’m not a grunge fan, but I can’t remember. Look it up. There’s two headliners, but then they’re going to cover Nirvana stuff and I want to say Alison Chains and I can’t remember, it’s grunge on the

Carl:
Rocks. I am looking it up right now. Cool. Come out here, we live 40 minutes away. You can stay in our guest suite, which is pretty nice and let’s do it. Awesome.

Chris:
Thanks so much guys. Have a great one. And

Carl:
Horn’s up.

Chris:
Thank you Chris. We’ll talk to you soon.

 

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For decades, the 4% rule has been the calculation every FIRE chaser has used to determine when they can retire early—risk-free. The math is simple: have a portfolio big enough to withdraw 4% per year to fund your lifestyle. But there’s one BIG problem with the 4% rule that nobody is talking about—a problem that could force you to work longer, ruin your retirement lifestyle, and put your portfolio in jeopardy if you don’t plan carefully. Tyler Gardner, former portfolio manager and financial advisor, is back on the show to share why much of the FIRE community may be wrong about this “rule.”

Scared of not having enough to retire, retiring during a market crash, or being forced to be frugal once you leave the workforce? That’s precisely what we’re talking about in today’s episode. The 4% rule has become untouchable within the FIRE movement, but its hard-and-fast downsides may lead to your FIRE’s demise.

Tyler shares what he thinks is the ultimate FIRE portfolio allocation, why he’s way more bullish on stocks and index funds than bonds, EVEN during retirement, and why target date retirement funds—often scoffed at—can actually help protect your portfolio once you FIRE. If you’re planning on retiring early with the 4% rule, think again. All of us have our doubts, and we’re sharing them today.

Mindy:
We are so excited to be joined by Tyler Gardner again for a follow-up episode. In our last episode, we talked about the psychology of what drives people to retire early and if our current societal work systems are broken. And today we’re diving back in with Tyler, a former financial advisor who loves to push back on the sacred tenets of financial independence. 4% rule, not one size fits all. Early retirement, not so fast portfolio management. There’s a lot more nuance than most fire adherence. Want to admit, we’ll get into all of this today. This is a conversation you will not want to miss. Hello, hello, hello and welcome to the BiggerPockets Money podcast. My name is Mindy Jensen and with me as always is my Swifty co-host Scott Trench.

Scott:
Thanks, Mindy. Great to be here. We always talk about our song, which is financial Freedom here on BiggerPockets. BiggerPockets is a goal of creating 1 million millionaires. You’re in the right place if you want to get your financial house in order because we truly believe financial freedom is attainable for everyone no matter when or where you’re starting, as long as you plunge headfirst, fearless. Alright, today we’ve got Tyler back for part two. Last time we went at it a little bit about some of the fundamental assumptions that we’ve got around fire and I think that there’s a lot more, I think that both of us agree or all three of us agree in a long-term kind of rational optimist’s world that things will generally tend to get better. But I was bringing a lot of questions and concerns around can you really get another job if you’re a high income earning doctor for example, that pays anything close to what you’re going to be earning today in early retirement?
How do we think about those things? And I think it was a great discussion, but I want to translate that today and Tyler had some really good pushback on those and some really good thoughts there. But today I want to frame that into how does Tyler’s worldview and the beliefs that you bring to fire translate to portfolio planning in the context of the real world and early retirement decisions here in 2025? And I think that the first part of that, Tyler comes in with asking you tell us about your viewpoint on the 4% rule and whether it applies in real world financial planning.

Tyler:
Sure. First off, it’s great to be back. Great to continue the conversation. I appreciate being welcome back and when I think about the 4% rule and when we used to think about it with clients, I think that the number one thing we always tried to make clear as early as possible is that there is, I believe an inherent problem with the word rule just to begin with, that people come to expect that on an annual basis they should be taking 4% no matter what. And to an extent this a ignores the dynamism of humans to begin with, that every single year you’re going to be in a different financial scenario. You’re going to have different wants and needs, but additionally it ignores what the market this year. And so I think that it’s worth, and I think we highlighted this and touched on this a little bit last time we chatted, but it’s worth always knowing the origins of the 4% rule, understanding that it came from an attempt by three professors in Texas to basically come up with as formulaic of an outcome as possible for people who would retire.
The issue that I feel a lot of people are not looking as closely at now as they should be is it doesn’t have to be a rule. It can be incredibly and wonderfully dynamic. If the market crushes it one year, you can take out 10% for all eyecare and if the market does not do well next year might not be a great year to take out even the 4%. So most of the texts that I’ve seen that have responded really nicely to this encourage us to really think through the dynamic nature of humans and understanding too that to put any rule in place when we retire is in and of itself potentially problematic.

Scott:
Awesome. So I think the obvious follow up question to that is if there’s not, rules is the wrong word, but are there guidelines that you would have for responses? What do you think the logical responses that folks should have who have retired on a 4% ruler close to it in the first few years after early retirement that maximize their happiness, wellbeing, long-term health of their portfolio? All of the above.

Tyler:
Yeah, absolutely. And I love the word guideline that and that honestly I would welcome the opportunity to have everyone shifted to the 4% guideline because again, this study basically showed that 100% of the time people would be fine over a bunch of different 30 year time horizons if they only withdrew 4%. But I think as we touched on last time too, what that also ended up, what ended up happening if you only withdrew 4% was that the median net worth, the median portfolio value at the end of those 30 years, if you were 100% invested in stocks, was $10 million. And if you were 75 stocks, 25 bonds, it ended up being about $6 million. So as a guideline, I think it is safe to go into retirement with the 4% number in mind because one of the biggest fears that I have and that most people have obviously is running out of money.
No one wants to run out money and if you go into retirement with let’s just say $2 million and the first year you get particularly greedy and say, and greedy might even be the wrong word, you get particularly excited and you want to go do a bunch of things in retirement that you’ve never done and you take out 9% and then that year in the year following, we have two big market downturn years that’s called sequence of returns risk and it is highly problematic in life if you retire, if all of a sudden don’t have a source of income and the market also happens to take a couple down years in a row. So the guidelines nice to have is let’s start conservative and then let’s see where we go as we progress throughout retirement as the markets progress throughout our time doing that.

Mindy:
Yeah, I was speaking with Emma von Wy on the Life After Fire video series that we have on our YouTube channel and she’s a CFP. She recommends having two years of cash when you retire, starting like if you’re within a couple of years of retirement to start saving up cash so that you have two years of spending in cash in maybe a high yield savings account, but it’s not in the market. It is liquid cash that you can access at any time specifically to kind of combat these sequence of returns risks. These down years don’t tend to last super long time. And then of course if you pull back, you see the Great Depression didn’t come back up for until the fifties, so they can last a while, but her argument is that in recent history they don’t tend to stay down for a super long time. You withdraw from the cash when you need it when the markets are down and then you replenish when the markets are going back up again.

Tyler:
She got it. Yep.

Mindy:
Yeah, she’s awesome. Her wisdom belies her years.

Tyler:
Emma’s point is spot on and one of the things that also allows anyone to do is that by having two years, and you could call it an emergency fund, you could call it cash reserves, but by having those two years you can also basically give yourself a much more freedom in investing the rest. So if you have that two year cushion, you can almost be 75 to a hundred percent growth assets and not be as concerned that all of a sudden if the market tanks, you’re going to be out of luck. So it really is nice to have that two year cushion. That’s a great timeline.

Mindy:
Is two years enough? I know that we are currently in some market instability right now and people are saying, oh, this time it’s different. This time it’s different, which is every time. Every time it’s different, but it’s also not different because the market I believe, and we’re in the middle of it right now, so I haven’t seen it yet, but I believe the market will go back up. Does two years feel like enough to you or would you in your own personal planning, would you go a little bit more?

Tyler:
I think this is one of the things that unfortunately it’s where the rich get richer and this is the privilege of wealth. If you have, let’s just say more than about $3 million even sequence of returns, risk doesn’t actually make as big of a difference as people might expect if you have under $2 million. It’s a really big deal. So I crunched numbers a while back where again, I kind of ran my own numbers of starting in 2000, the worst time you ever could have started to retire and draw down four or 5%, and if you start that with a $1 million portfolio, pardon my language, but you end up being basically screwed because just remember again as we’re drawing down, if you have a couple bad market years, you’re not taking 4% of a million anymore, you’re taking 4% of 500,000, so your spending power gets reduced very, very quickly.
For me, two years is plenty if you are relatively well off, and obviously I think that’s kind of a subjective term, everybody has their own definition of what is okay to be spending on an annual basis. I’m also very highly risk tolerant, so I get criticized on one end because I’m not fearful enough. I have an immense faith, as Scott was saying earlier, I’m an optimist with all of this. I don’t believe this time is different. I don’t believe this is going to be the 10 year period where all of us have no more concept of growth assets anywhere. So I think a two year safety margin tends to be enough, but any kind of like you’re pointing at Mindy, it just depends on your risk tolerance because what is enough for me is not necessarily enough for you, is not necessarily enough for Scott. So I think it’s what lets you literally, I know it’s a cliche, but it’s what lets you sleep at night saying I’ll be okay in any one of my most worst case imagined scenarios.

Scott:
Yo listeners, we need to take a quick ad break, but when we’re away, we’d love for you to check out our new BiggerPockets money newsletter. You can subscribe at biggerpockets.com/money newsletter.

Mindy:
Welcome back to the show with Tyler Gardner. I just spoke with a couple who have a much higher fire number than most people to specifically account for these unknowns like inflation. Inflation is the biggest unknown there, the down markets, et cetera. How do you balance not working too long with not working enough, not saving enough? I think that this couple is going to be working two or three times longer than they need to because their fire number is so high versus getting out of the workforce thinking, oh, well I have 750,000, it won’t take that long to have it grow. I’m just going to leave anyway. There’s risks on both sides. How would you advise somebody to balance that?

Tyler:
Oh, I never would even dare risk advise somebody only because it was one of the most wonderfully personal components of, again, fear-based thinking heading into retirement. I don’t know if we did touch on this last time, but the majority of people with whom I connect these days are people that are close to or are just in retirement and every single one of them is asking the same question. And this is not the fire community. Mind you, these are people who have worked until 65, potentially 70 and are still stuck with the identical question that just posed, which is do I work that one remaining year? And it’s so wonderful to work one more year only because it’s a known entity and if we stop working, all of a sudden we’re leaving something a little bit more to chance then can controlling the own outcome of that year’s income.
And so for so many people, I know we choose the work because it’s the lesser of two evils. Actually I’ll kind of go to Shakespeare on this one. The reason Hamlet does not take his life is because the life, even though he’s not happy in his current life is known and the great unknown of death is what prevents him from wanting to off himself in the play. So there’s actually a very similar psychological tendency here of saying, look, I’d rather put up with one more year of work because it’s the lesser of two evils. It’s the known evil, it’s the evil within however you want to phrase it. Whereas the second I stop, what happens? What happens if I run out of money? What happens if I can’t get a job five years from now because of ageism? What happens if we have five down years in a row? The what ifs will almost always outweigh the, well, I’ll just do this for one more year and I know I’ll be guilty. I think I’ve mentioned this before, I know I’ll be guilty of that. I know that I’m going to probably end up working until I’m 85 years old because I’m just going to go, well, it’s one more year of income and I can control it.

Mindy:
It’s one more year, but when does one more year stop?

Tyler:
I have no idea. It doesn’t it. I’m with you. I have no answer there. I think that that’s part of our psychological underpinning is that we consistently go back to this idea of just wanting more just in case and it’s really hard. So there’s almost an argument or a potential argument there for saying someone should just force you to retire that you don’t get the choice that at a certain point they say, sorry, you’re out. And we don’t get that choice anymore. I mean at 40 or 42 where I am right now, no way. I mean there’s nothing but respect I have for the fire community who takes that leap of faith and is able to do it. That’s an incredible gift that I do not have.

Mindy:
Yeah, my husband’s been retired for nine years. He retired when he was 43 and almost as soon as he retired he’s like, I can’t believe that I ever had enough time to have a job. I’m so busy in retirement doing all of these things, but he also, I mean let’s admit I’m still working so he’s also got nine years of me working and covering our expenses. So we didn’t need to save anymore for retirement. We did because once you start you can’t stop. And now our original fine number is, well, with the recent downturn, I think we’re now five x our original PHI number, but we were even more and at what point do you stop one more year syndrome?

Tyler:
I dunno, especially when it comes to the two things we haven’t quite addressed yet too are also healthcare. Healthcare comes up with a lot of different people is that there’s obviously this gap pre-Medicare of trying to figure out how we fund that and let’s just go back to either the 40,000 or the $80,000 examples. You try funding healthcare for a family on $80,000 a year and additionally that $80,000 is pre-tax. It’s not $80,000, it’s at best $60,000, so we’re looking at $60,000 then less healthcare. We genuinely are probably looking at close to now the 80,000 person is back to around the $40,000 of disposable income that we actually started with. So 2 million to an extent is the number that I would propose to somebody thinking about fire if they wanted a genuine margin for error of taxes, of healthcare, of unknown, of putting aside some money in the money markets. That would be kind of my new 1 million if I were to think about proposing that to anybody is that once you have kind of double, I hate to say it because I know that’s daunting, but double what you think you’d need then maybe

Scott:
We did some very precise polling of the BiggerPockets money YouTube audience with a four question poll, four answers, one question poll and according to them two and a half million is the new million for exactly the reason you just described. That’s the midpoint for what folks believe is necessary for fire inside of our community. Some folks think less half folks, the folks think more, but that’s the midpoint. So I think that’s what I think is in the minds of most folks accounting for those things, right? Hey, there’s three 4,000 a year for those kinds of core expenses with basic housing, basic if one has a paid off home for example healthcare and those types of things, plus that extra quality of life spending and I think that’s what a lot of folks are targeting here. Let’s go back to a question around the portfolio here. I have spent the entire discussion so far assuming that we’re talking about a 60 40, 70 30 stock bond portfolio, but we’ve talked nothing about allocations, so that’s a complete assumption. What do you advise or how would you build this two and a half million dollars portfolio if you agree with that as the baseline here?

Tyler:
I love it. I love it. There you go. We saw eye to eye with the two and a half million and I am glad to hear that a lot of the community thinks that’s the new million because even though I don’t always love it when people say, oh, why bother saving because of inflation and because of this, but I am glad that two and a half is kind of a new number because I think that’s going to be safer as far as asset allocation goes. The only question I ever ask people when we think through how to allocate for retirement regardless of age is what’s your goal with the money? If you say I have two and a half million dollars and my goal is to protect this two and a half million at all costs and I’m okay living on 4% of that two and a half million.
The good news is that there are ample fixed income products including just playing the asset class of government bonds that can more often than not accomplish getting you a 4% real return. You could more likely than not do that even in a hundred percent fixed income portfolio. However, a lot of people I know kind of again back to Mindy’s point about like, well what’s enough? Is this enough money for me? A lot of people might have the two and a half million but still be thinking, well I want to keep up with inflation, right? Let’s just say that on average that’s between two and 3% per year just historically, and so I do need some growth assets. So it becomes a, well, what is it that you want to accomplish with this portfolio? So again, if you’re just two and a half million you say I’m fine with a 4%, you can actually do that relatively low risk as far as bonds and other fixed income products even I dare say annuities, right?
But the second you say, well look, I’m a little more focused on growth, then I would encourage growth assets and there are countless growth assets out there For me, I keep it very simple as I think I keep it very simple and low cost with different types of index funds going forward. So for me the ideal would be probably a 90 10, but that’s just me because I would always err on the side of growth, particularly if I had a lengthy enough time horizon ahead of me because there’s no 20 year period in history. I think we’ve touched on this where stocks do not beat bonds over a rolling 20 years.

Scott:
Is there any price to earnings multiple in the stock portfolio or any yield on bonds high enough or low enough, I’m sorry, low enough or high enough respectively? Is there any price to earnings multiple that’s so preposterously expensive on stocks that that would change your viewpoint on that or any interest rate on bonds that would be so high that it would change your viewpoint on the returns for stocks that would change that allocation?

Tyler:
It’s funny you bring that up because a couple folks just last week were commenting to me, they saw a video of mine where I said I would never invest in bonds and they said if you had been alive in the eighties, my friend, you would’ve been happily invested in bonds and they were quoting between 12 and 17% returns on bonds. Scott, I would invest in bonds in a heartbeat if they were giving me 15%, I’d put my entire net worth in bonds if they were giving me 15% on a long enough time horizon, if I could lock in to 10 years and out with that type of return, fantastic. But we can’t right now and we’re not in a bad interest rate environment, we’re actually still in a very interest rate environment where on risk-free assets you are getting between four and 5% and that’s fantastic. Maybe a little lower now, but that’s fantastic. However, again, if you’re looking to spend 4% post-tax, you can’t afford to do that. At the very least you’re going to need something that will outpace it, whether it’s real estate, whether it’s alternative investments beyond real estate, whether it’s stocks, you need something that’s going to potentially generate between six and 10%.

Scott:
Awesome. And I just want to call that out because I think that a lot of folks listening based on polling I’ve done for the BiggerPockets money community as well are in this mentality of I want a portfolio that I just don’t have to ever think about or touch again. And I am of the belief I’m starting to come around that that vision will never be achieved in practice here because at some point bond yields will get so high, you’d obviously change things over and I think the inverse at some point stocks could get so expensive that that would change things and I think that’s where folks kind of have to, there’s a little bit of a brain has to flip on with the portfolio allocation piece a little bit more than I think people have liked to believe over the last 10 years in order to truly sustain retirement. Do you agree with that statement?

Tyler:
I love what you just said. I love it because keep in mind too, we’re in an era where not only would people like to set it and forget it, but people are now given the best options of all time to set it and forget it in the form of target date retirement funds, a target date retirement fund is the new end all be all for someone who just says, I believe that they will appropriately reallocate and rebalance my funds on an annual basis for relatively low cost, and that is true. All of the big firms can get you more conservatively focused as you get closer to retirement. But what you said, which to me is gold in going back to the beginning of this conversation is that you need to always be looking and you need to have a dynamic mindset understanding that yes, there will be a time when you look up and the PE ratio of the entire s and p 500 is absurdly absurdly overvalued, and you go, wait a minute. Historically that’s way beyond what it should be and what it has been and maybe this is not the best time for me to put my 2.5 million nest egg that I’m relying on for 30 years into that space, especially if that’s coordinated with a five to 7% bond return. That’s fantastic. So I love it and I agree wholeheartedly that I think the punchline here is always be watching, be looking at it.

Scott:
So then do you agree with the answer that that 2.5 million portfolio move one is million dollar paid off quadplex?

Mindy:
Objection leading the witness.

Scott:
I did not

Tyler:
Prep Tyler on that response guys. That was all him. That was a wonderful Socratic approach of leading me to a question that if I say no, you go, sorry, I just led you there and yes, absolutely, but Scott, I’ve been thinking about this since the last time we talked too that again, and I think I left it by saying if I had the desire to invest in real estate, if I had the time to do it again as a tax haven, as potential income, so obviously a good move and as obviously an alternative asset class that has a non or negatively correlated component with stocks and bonds, but I don’t, I have no interest in going to find it nor this is actually a bigger one that I wanted to bring up with you, nor do I have any concept of expertise in that area. I know how to value a stock, I know how to look at a company and say, I think I understand what is over undervalued. I don’t necessarily know how to value real estate, and so I don’t know how I would go about finding a positive cash flowing source that would be a good idea for me. Makes complete sense on that.

Mindy:
Tyler, you have said multiple times alternative investments like real estate, so we have a chat going on this show and I typed in all caps, real estate is not an alternative asset class. I think that you can invest in stocks, you can invest in bonds, but those aren’t the two, only two main ones. I think real estate can absolutely be another main form of investments. I do like what you said, you don’t have the inclination to do it great, then don’t do it. But are you of the opinion that it’s only stocks and bonds are the investments

Tyler:
Not even close? No way. But I also think that that might be attaching too much weight to what I’m using relatively lightly versus I see exactly where you’re going, Mindy and no part of me is saying real estate’s kind of on the peripheral and should be treated as an alternative or an other, right? It is absolutely a major asset class. When I say alternatives to me, right? One of the reasons I say alternatives is just that traditionally throughout, I mean if you look back and again, our finance history is actually very brief. We don’t have that much finance literature in the US but if you look back over the last 40 or 50 years of traditional portfolio theory, even modern portfolio theory and all this, this was literally kind of invented in the 1950s. We have about 75 years of thinking about modern portfolio theory and asset classes of investing and since and from that time almost all literature that does and including the Trinity study including the famous Trinity study, it’s just stocks and bonds.
It literally is just stocks and bonds. So one of the things I try to do with people is help them explore the idea of what are other things that you can invest in and why would you invest in those things? When I call real estate an alternative investment, I just look at it as something that is slightly different than the traditional forms of investing that I could go to a brokerage account today on my computer and invest in. That said, even just in the last decade, now we can invest in real estate investment trusts. It’s become so democratized to invest passively in real estate that it has become a major form of investing and now alts to an extent are more defined as private credit, private debt, artwork, commodities. Those are kind of now considered the alternative investments in a formal sense. So yeah, so no part of me is trying to put real estate into a bucket that it doesn’t belong in.

Scott:
Here’s a fun one, and this is something that wasn’t possible a couple of years ago. Go to chat GPT or grok or whatever your favorite AI is and ask them to do an analysis on portfolio outcomes. If you reallocate from stocks and bonds or whatever at various high price points when things are particularly expensive and some of those asset classes are particularly low yield to an 8% inflation adjusted bond, which I’m using as a proxy for real estate because you throw a dart at the wall in a lot of markets, you can get a four or five cap rental property that’ll appreciate a 3.4% a year paid off if you just don’t use any new leverage at all, and that’s roughly what that will be. It won’t be perfectly smooth. There’ll be ups and downs in that cashflow and appreciation every year just like any other asset class, but that’s a reasonable proxy I think for that and that’s fun to play around with the analysis. You got to double check it and be really careful with it when you’re feeding that, but that’s a fun little use case for ai. That would’ve taken me months to really run those kinds of analyses previously, and AI can do that. Not a hundred percent trustworthy, but usefully enough and quick bursts with the right prompt.

Mindy:
Yeah, I was going to say, how do you know that those are the right numbers?

Scott:
That’s where you got to follow up with the research there, but it begins to provide really nice starting points for that research there.

Tyler:
It is such a good resource these days. I don’t ever use it for coming up with the exact right number, Mindy ever. If I’m doing a video and I need to come up with, obviously I crunched my own numbers there, but as a guide it has become really helpful with questions like this audience might have, tell me five benefits of investing in real estate over investing in stocks. Tell me what the last decade has looked like as far as correlation between government bonds and real estate properties in California. It can find some of this so quickly that even just in a broad sense, it can give you a really nice starting point of what would work for you. Additionally, you can obviously put in all of who you are. You can just, if you have the right prompts, you can then say, Hey, here’s who I’m, I don’t want to go buy this property. I’m not an expert in this and it will really help you with that.

Scott:
Hey Grock, what happens when Bitcoin falls below the cost of the cheapest 1% electricity to mine it worldwide? So can Bitcoin sustain a price drop when its price falls below the price required at electricity at 2 cents a kilowatt hour to mine a Bitcoin? That’s a fun one to go in there and that’ll scare some people. This has been fun here. Let’s go back for a second here to something you said earlier with target date retirement funds. Those are pretty bad words in the financial independence, retire early communities here. Not bad words, but they’re kind of like poo-pooed is not the optimal approach there. Why do you like this? Do you really like the target date retirement funds? Do you think people should reset their mentality around the use of these tools?

Tyler:
I will answer that question once you expand on a why the fire community doesn’t like that concept. I’m interested in that. I really don’t know why and what, so tell me a little bit more about that.

Scott:
I would say that it is just not brought up. It’s not widely used. I’ve talked to dozens of people, not to dozens. I’ve talked to a thousand people at this point, 600 of which have been on this show about retiring. It’s almost never mentioned, and it’s almost always viewed as a personalized choice between stock and bond portfolios. And overwhelmingly folks simply seem to put most of their net worth into total markets, stock index funds, and here on BiggerPockets money, a little bit of real estate allocations on it, so it’s just not widely used. Maybe I’m phrasing it improperly as the bad words.

Tyler:
Oh no, no, I’m just interested. Yeah,

Mindy:
Yeah, no. So what number, what is my target retirement date? Is it in five years? Then that’s going to put me into a very different allocation than even though I am 30 and I want to retire at 35 versus I am 30 and I’m going to retire at 65, so I’m going to have a lot more growth opportunities in that larger timeframe, but I’m sorry, in the 35 year timeframe, they’re going to put me into more growth stocks. If I’ve got a five-year timeframe left, they’re going to put me into far less growth stocks. That’s going to be more wealth preservation. So in our community, we are focused on fast tracking our retirement. That means that we need to be in growth stocks, aggressive growth stocks that we hopefully our understanding that we are trading more of a secure balance for the growth so we can retire early. So I don’t know that I know how to use a target date retirement fund. I never have, but what date do you put in?

Tyler:
Yeah, let’s go through them. I love this. This is a great conversation because going back to where we said, okay, is 2.5 million the new million and is that, let’s just say it is $2.5 million is enough and someone has established that’s enough and someone is five years out from retirement and let’s just say they have around 2.1 or 2.2 million in a situation like that, that is what the target date retirement fund is designed to do very, very well, which is make it more conservative and make it more principle protection. As you get closer to a date that you have decided you’re going to start drawing out money, let’s just say 4% as a guideline because of that, it is a very good idea. I would think that a lot of fire community members would want that because if you say I want 2.5 million in five years is when I want to start drawing, I’m five years away and I’m going to go a hundred percent into stocks or total stock index, et cetera.
I mean, I love it by the way. I love the risk. That’s who I am as a person, but it is absurdly risky because now you are jeopardizing that five-year timeframe big time you have just said, okay, great. You might wind up with 3 million by the time you retire in five years. You also might wind up with 1.8 and if you had a number in mind that could sustain you and your family and your expenses, then the target date retirement fund is actually very well designed to do what we emotionally can’t always do, which is actually to make you more conservative. But again, now I want to play the other side, which is what I don’t like about the target date retirement funds is that they are a one size fits all based on age, and I think that is one of the silliest ways that you could ever invest or think about investing in your life.
I am not the same 42-year-old as my 42-year-old neighbor with three kids college debt looming over them and a 40 year time horizon ahead of them. So the target date retirement funds specifically, it says every single 40-year-old is going to be the same risk profile. That to me is highly problematic. So do I like them? I like them just as much as I like any single financial product in as far as it can be very useful for the right person at the right time for the right goal, but do I like them for my personal scenario, no, I wouldn’t use a target date retirement fund.

Mindy:
Yeah, I have never used it. I wasn’t quite sure how to set it up in the first place, but also I am just like you. I am very pro risk and I want my portfolio to grow as big as it can, so I’m going to make choices that somebody who is risk averse would definitely not make.

Tyler:
Yep, a hundred percent. And one of the hacks that might seem obvious, but it is something that helps a lot of people is let’s say that you have that exact mindset, Mindy, but you still don’t want to invests. You still aren’t actually comfortable each year saying, well, is it 90 10? Is it 85 15? That’s where you could say, I want to retire in five years, but instead of doing the target date retirement fund that’s five years from now, I’m just going to put my money in the target date retirement fund that’s set for 20 years from now because then all you’re doing is just taking on a little more risk within that. But as you begin to go into your retirement years, it will continue to take a little risk off, a little risk off, a little risk off, and that can be helpful during times of volatility.
That can be really helpful. I promise. A Target eight retirement fund did much better over the last month than a hundred percent stock fund. We know that it hedged a little bit, it mitigated the volatility a little bit, and so anyone who was a 60 40 over the last month had a much better time than someone who’s a hundred percent in stocks, but that’s not the game we’re playing. We’re not playing a game for one day, especially in the fire community, you’re playing a really long-term game and there is no long-term game. I know that doesn’t involve a very high percentage of stocks, and I don’t want a computer taking those away from me before I tell it to.

Mindy:
We have to take one final ad break, but we’ll be right back with more after this.

Scott:
Thanks for sticking with us.

Mindy:
Okay, Tyler, other than the sequence of returns risks that we just mentioned, which honestly have not been at the forefront of my mind because we’ve had such an upswing for so long, what are some other investment or draw down strategies, draw down detriments that the fire community might not be talking about but should be thinking about?

Tyler:
I think one, and this isn’t necessarily investment related, but it is fire related, and I’ve just been thinking about this one for a while, which is I’m fine with the concept of establishing a portfolio where you say, we have enough money, we’re going to be fine for the next 40 years. Everything’s okay. We’ve done all the calculations, but what I struggle with not as a criticism but as a genuine curiosity is what if in 10 years you decide it’s not for you? The amount of times in my life that I’ve wanted to change jobs or change interests has been plentiful. I am always trying something new and I’ve taken a lot of different paths in my life and I just wonder if either of you have a textbook response or a communal response to what if in 10 years you decide this was not necessarily the right choice, but now I’ve been out of the job market for eight to 10 years and might not be as employable or again, not claiming that ageism is necessarily a thing, but maybe your skills have just softened a little bit based on where the skills are right now.
How do you all talk about that?

Scott:
Well, that’s why I spent so much time fighting you last episode on all your assumptions about being able to continue getting work with that. I think the answer is if you’re going to retire, early retirement is used intentionally in the fire language here. It means a permanent absence from wage income or work on a long-term basis. And I think that’s why people take this discussion of the 4% rule, so seriously, why the math has been so exhaustively discussed, why people still don’t trust it and build up huge cash positions on top of it, side businesses, part-time income and all these contingency plans is because that’s absolutely the core risk to this lifetime financial goal that we talk about here on BiggerPockets money ad nauseum about, because the goal is how do I spend Tuesday for the rest of my life, never having to go back to work and nobody wants to be listening to this podcast retiring at 40, 50 years old and then at 70 back at work in the supermarket. That’s the goal. That’s the fear I think in people’s minds about all this. And they’re going to work really hard and spend a lot of time mental energy to make sure that every possible litigant is employed to forest all that risk.

Mindy:
First, I want to make a comment. Tyler said, well, assuming ageism is a thing, let’s absolutely assume ageism is a thing because when you are going to, not you Scott, because I know you would never, but when you are going to hire somebody and you’ve got two candidates, there’s a 20-year-old and a 70-year-old, who are you going to pick? Absolutely. You are going to find a way to choose the 25-year-old over the 70-year-old unless it’s who’s got lifelong experience. And I’m not saying I advocate for this. I think it’s horrible that this happens, but it absolutely does happen, and it’s something that you as the early retiree should have in your mind the concept of enough, a million dollars used to be what we were reaching for and in the PHI community in general, and now it’s not. I don’t hear much million dollar numbers anymore.
I hear 2.5, I hear three, and I wonder what people are going to do should they decide to go back to work. I would hope that they would decide to go back to work near the beginning of their retirement versus the middle or as they are getting into their traditional retirement ages. Traditional retirement is part of early retirement and you need to make sure that that part of your life is covered. And my husband’s been retired for nine years. He has no plans to go back to work. He is, I watch him and I’m like, there’s no way he would ever have not. We talk about going back to work and he’s like, I would never want to go back to work.

Scott:
Your skillset will atrophy is what’s going to happen.

Mindy:
Well, not even that, he doesn’t want to spend the time in a job, but he has also created a very full life in retirement. And I’m wondering if Tyler is saying, are you thinking people are going to run out of money or are you thinking people are going to be bored in retirement? Is that where that question’s coming from?

Scott:
Unless you’re Carl, Carl’s only gotten better at picking stocks the whole time, by the way, on this. So I’m not saying that, but I think that that’s the real best. Let’s just call it what it is. If you’re out of the workforce for 10 years, your skillset’s going to atrophy. No question. There’s no world where I’m viewing someone’s application for a job and there’s a 10 year work history gap, and I’m wondering what’s going on. The only role that that’s appropriate for is podcast host,

Tyler:
But hey, as we all know, that’s a pretty good gig. I guess this is what I’m advocating for. I’m advocating for the lifestyle that the three of us have, and I say that quasi ingest and quasi not right. Is that part of what, and this does go back to part one of our conversation is part of what I think I’m advocating for is that we could think of our financial portfolios in such a philosophical sense of saying, look, fine, you’ve got your $2.5 million, but if you go to zero with your income as far as anything that’s coming in, you’ve just given so much up to chance versus saying, I know why I want to leave this work. I don’t like it. I know what I want my lifestyle to be. But are there skills, and you bring up the future of ai, is there a skillset that you can develop over the next 10 to 20 years, especially if you have some more hours now at your disposal where you can make a type of income?
And it doesn’t have to be much, it just has to be enough, even just to cover what Emma Wise was saying of that two year component of risk aversion is like if we could have enough to just say, I don’t have to touch my assets in a truly down year because I run this really great podcast and I love it. And again, I know we joke that we could do this until we’re 90, but seriously, not only can we do this till we’re 90, I think this would be really exciting to do throughout your life and see how your perspectives changed and see how content changed. So we’re in a world where I don’t have as much, I won’t say again, it’s not a criticism. I don’t have as much understanding of someone who says, well, I’m just stuck in this toxic job and I have no other options.
We have a lot of options right now. There are so many ways to connect with the world and the marketing is free with all of these platforms, and I would just hope that there was a part, and please tell me if there is, because again, I just probably haven’t done enough research on different components or niches within the fire movement. Is there a group that does say we want to get to our 2.5 million, but then we’re going to kind of slowly head into this space and we’re going to have a part-time gig so we get the lifestyle we want to an extent, but it doesn’t put as much pressure on this perfect portfolio allocation on this standard 4% rule on healthcare expenses on all of that. Does that exist or is it or no?

Scott:
Yeah, that exists. The contradiction inherent in what we do here at BiggerPockets Money is we talk about fire as is like what is the portfolio capable of sustaining a permanent state of Tuesday doing whatever you want on your own? And we define that as a 4% rule portfolio, two and a half million dollars invested in a mixed stock bond portfolio, withdrawing the a hundred thousand dollars a year and spending all of it. And nobody does that, right? I get a response every once in a while from people who think they do that and they’re like, oh, yeah, I also have a rental property and I have $5 million instead of the two and a half that I actually need for this. So there’s a huge margin state, or I have four years of cash on top of my portfolio, everybody, or I’m still working a part-time job, or I just fired it, but my wife still works and brings in more income, but a standalone than the entire cost of our lifestyle without the need for my several million dollar portfolio.
So everybody has these huge baked emergency people come in and they’ll talk about finance Friday and they’ll be like, am I fire? I have two and a half million dollars and I also have a pension that brings in $6,000 a month. Oh, well, we didn’t mention that previously. So everybody’s got some sort of ace in the hole on this. And that’s what I keep emphasizing here is the community. These are smart people. These are people who spent a decade, in most cases at least building up huge piles of assets obsessing over investment theory, and who listened to this podcast about money instead of Taylor Swift in the car on the way to and from work or at the gym for a reason, and none of them actually follow this specific advice. Everyone does something like what you’re talking about, Tyler, in terms of the transition period.

Mindy:
You know what? I think that’s what the fire community conversation is missing. We talk about this is what we are going to do, but we actually do all of that. Scott just said, my husband has been retired for nine years. I’ve been working at BiggerPockets for 10. So how did you get up the courage to leave your job? Well, my wife was making enough money that it covered all of our expenses, and we already had our fire number met.

Scott:
Mindy, you also sell a house a month on the side in Colorado and high cost

Mindy:
Living area. Yeah, I’m a real estate agent on top of that, and I have a fairly steady real estate business. I don’t consider that a job. So yeah, I think that that is kind of the unspoken secret of the PHI community is yes, you did all this great work to amass a net worth that is sitting over here that you’re not even spending or you’re only pulling out 1%. And I believe that benin’s original study said that you could, 4% is the safe withdrawal rate. If you went down to 3.5 or 3.25, then there’s a 100% rate of success over a 30 year period. Big earn is saying it’s more like 3.25 because the timeline is extended and we’re going to talk to him in a future episode to get his money.

Scott:
Once you get below the 4% rule, I pet peeve of mine, it gets really silly if you say, oh, the safe withdrawal rate is 3.3% for a 30 year withdrawal rate. Well guess what? 3.3 times 30 is, so you just withdraw one 30 if your money every year, and it doesn’t have to do anything right on there. So then of course you’re safe for 30 years because you just put a pile of money in there and index it to inflation and tips and you just withdraw one 30th of it every year and you don’t run out of money.

Tyler:
And let’s look at two. I mean, thank you for bringing up bangin because that’ll be a really good conversation. But Bangin study too was based on a worst case scenarios, and I can’t emphasize that enough that this to me, this is my, so Scott has his pet peeve. My pet peeve is anything talking about 4% because it’s all fear-based conservative withdrawal rates. And that’s fine. If someone wants to go in and say, look, if the worst comes to worse comes to worse, will I be okay? Well, if the worst comes to worse, you’re going to die tomorrow and it’s completely irrelevant. So there’s a spectrum, but bluntly, there’s a spectrum of it’s not about money. We have this expected idea that we’re going to live for 30 years and have endless money. That’s best case scenario. But best case scenario also has to do with life fulfillment.
So best case scenario is also that I figure out what the heck I want to do with this money to begin with. But if we’re always driven by this idea of worst case scenario, most conservative, I can be 100% safety, 100% success rate. I don’t know. I think that’s a overly conservative way to look at finance, and there’s a great saying that absolutely not taking on enough risk is one of the riskiest things you can ever do in investing. Absolutely. One of the riskiest things you can do is be overly involved in fixed income products when we have this monster called inflation that eats away at us every single year. So my only closing encouragement based on everything you were just reflecting on Mindy,

Scott:
Is buy real estate,

Tyler:
Maybe in part three, Scott. But this one, I think that the way that I would look at it, if I really were thinking that I were going to be involved in a fire movement, let’s just say five years from now, I would make sure going back to our point about alternative assets, I would label an alternative asset as something I could do skill-wise to generate money. That’s something we do not talk about enough. We talk about stocks, we talk about bonds, we talk about real estate, commodities, et cetera, cryptocurrency, we don’t ever, no financial advisor, no financial textbook will ever put into that little pie chart that 25% of that should be focused on. What is the skill you have that can be exchanged for money at any time, regardless of ageism, regardless of where you are? That to me would be the dream because it’s additional fixed income, it’s additional security and it’s additional involvement in life. That to me would be your perfect portfolio.

Mindy:
I love it. I love that we are talking about this. I hope that people are listening and start thinking to themselves, what is my unfair advantage? What is my ace in the whole? What is my extra above the 4% rule that I am not accounting for? And what is that going to do to my timeline? Because I think people are working, there are some people who aren’t working long enough, but I think there’s a lot of people who are working much longer than they need to at the job that they hate, at the job that they don’t feel fulfilled with and aren’t focusing on the fact that they do have enough to make a jump. And that’s the whole reason people are looking at the PHI community in the first place is, I hate my job. I want to leave my job retire early. Yes. How do I do that? And once you get to a certain place, just leave the job that you hate and find something else. Even if it doesn’t pay as much as the job that you hate, even if it doesn’t have as much status,

Scott:
That is a much better answer. Yeah, that one. If you really hate what you’re doing, that’s it. Fire the journey towards fire. You don’t have to get to fire to quit your job and do something better. You can just take a pay cut and do something better as you move along that journey and your quality of life may dramatically improve. Fire provides better optionality the whole way through for it. But once you decide to leave the workforce on a permanent basis, then your skillset does begin to atrophy pretty materially, and forget this concept of ageism around it. I am just not going to bet on my being able to generate income the same way when I’m 75 as I can today at 34, 34, almost 35 in there. It’s just not going to happen. I’m just not going to be able to do it. I would not be as effective as an entrepreneur at that point.
I believe in there, and that’s going to be a challenge. And I think that not stating that reality out there is problematic for folks. I think most people take that for granted as an obvious fact of life that that’s going to be a challenge at that point in life. There’s things I could still do absolutely in there, but I don’t know if I could perform as CEO at BiggerPockets at that age personally. Maybe some folks can, but I think that my body will begin to give out. My energy will begin to decline at that point, and I think that we have to factor that in as a risk later in life. I don’t think you can count on that in perpetuity. There’s a reason social security exists in this world

Mindy:
Because people don’t save for retirement

Scott:
And because people aren’t unable to generate income after a certain point in their lives.

Mindy:
Well, and that’s exactly why I am saving for retirement because I don’t anticipate generating income forever. Although as a real estate agent, that’s going to be a bit different because I mean, there’s a lot of older real estate agents out there. You can still show houses.

Tyler:
I was going to say, Mindy, that’s your ace in the hole. I’m not kidding. I love it. And I love that you brought that up, and I love that language too. I’m definitely using that language going forward with people, because I do think it’s important just for everyone to just think whether it’s, I hate to call it pension or social security, the ace in the hole, but any of these little things that we don’t talk about, they’re all part of it. And we’ve got to look at it as one big portfolio and now, so I’ve just got to start thinking of what mine is so I can transition wherever I’d like.

Scott:
I do want to do one quick counter argument to my own thing that I just said there. Apparently the American people totally disagree with me, have now twice in a row elected folks over the age of 75 to the highest office in the land for the presidency. So maybe that’s changing. Maybe there’s a new world, new world coming and the world has shifted and changed and that is all a different thing and I should be planning around it. But you can tell Tyler, I take the pessimistic worst case view, but then I invest, I think in a way that, alright, I have until February at least invested in a way that also takes advantage of long-term growth trends assumes inflation and long-term growth in the US economy.

Tyler:
I guess where I bring up a good, I talk about him a little bit of my content sometimes, but my father is 76 years old and he’s done perfectly fine for himself, but he’s the type of person, and I guess this maybe is where my bias comes from here or my values is a better way to think about it, but he’s still working part-time as a part-time doctor and he enjoys the work so much that the work is actually what keeps him focused, what keeps him going, what keeps him fulfilled, and that becomes his ace in the hole very easily. I mean that in and of itself can fund his annual expenses perfectly fine and then he can invest in whatever the heck he wants to invest in. So when I tell people that he’s a hundred percent invested in tech stocks and everyone screams how the heck is a 76-year-old invested that aggressively, I say, well, because he has the ace in the hole because he’s still working and he loves what he does.
So he, to an extent, actually, I would even say philosophically, that he embodies a lot of what the fire movement is, is that he has found a way to do exactly what he loves doing and it’s not work for him. It’s not just a cliche, it really isn’t. He would be miserable if you took them away from that job and those interactions and those touch points on a daily basis. And I can say that too, during Covid, those were two of the toughest years of my life. I was a teacher during Covid and the world shut down and we were doing this, we were interacting with each other via Zoom. And it was so hard to go from having a hundred touchpoints a day with high energy and lots of positivity and lots of interaction to being behind a screen that was really difficult to have this glimpse into a void of interacting and finding a way to make money for engaging with the world and solving fulfilling problems.

Scott:
That’s the dream, right? Is to be able to do something that you love long late into life, but never to have to do something at that point. And I think that’s the fear. That’s the fear and optimism there should be. You have to be optimistic to be a fire, to be in the fire community and it’s at your core. You have to be optimistic that at the end of the day there’s a light at the end of the tunnel that leads to perpetual financial freedom in there. And I think there has to be a fear almost everyone has a fear of if I pull the trigger and don’t do that well, I’m going to forego options that are very real in my life on there. And the goal is to never have to work again.

Tyler:
That’s my goal.

Mindy:
I like that distinction. Alright, Tyler, this was yet another amazing episode. I really appreciate your conversation, your point of view and the fact that you’re taking time out to share your information and knowledge with us. Where can our listeners find you online?

Tyler:
Oh, sure. Well, I mean just the most fun I’m having right now is the same fun you all are having is the podcast about a month and a half ago started a podcast and I’m having a great time with that. Yeah. So I’m welcome to your world and it’s hard and it’s fun and it’s exciting and hope I can do that until I’m 76.

Scott:
Where can you find this podcast?

Tyler:
It is called Your Money Guide on the Side, and it is on wherever I believe podcast probably appear. Your Apple, your Spotify, your Amazon, your iHeart, et cetera. And then most of my content is through Instagram or TikTok and it is under the handle social cap official or social cap on TikTok. And in transparency, I’m growing very tired of making 62nd videos about finance because you can’t really unpack much in 60 seconds.

Mindy:
Absolutely. You’re right. You could just touch on a topic and be like, okay, bye.

Tyler:
Yeah.

Mindy:
Whereas with a podcast you could just talk forever.

Tyler:
I know. I love it. Yeah.

Mindy:
Well I am really looking forward to checking out your podcast. Thank you again so much for your time and we will talk to you soon.

Tyler:
Of course. Thanks Mindy. Thanks Scott, I appreciate your time. Thank you Tyler.

Mindy:
Alright, Scott, that was yet another amazing conversation with Tyler Gardner. What did you think?

Scott:
I think that the intellectual basis for portfolio theory in the fire community is sketchy and totally ignored by most.

Mindy:
Ooh, I’m going to stick up for all of my fire peeps and say please elaborate.

Scott:
You’re a perfect example. Your portfolio doesn’t have any grounding in the intellectual framework of the 4% rule. You’re a hundred percent in stocks and a little bit of real estate. There’s nothing in it, right? I don’t do it. I don’t know many people who do it. Most of the people I’ve talked to who are fire continue to maintain largely stock-based portfolios. So there’s a huge body of research on portfolio theory that is promptly ignored. And then I also think, Mindy, I think I’m at the point where I’m going to say if someone comes in and I ask you the question, is there a price to earnings ratio for stocks? Is there any price at which stocks are so absurdly expensive that it would force you to reconsider or any bond yield high enough that it would force you to reconsider reallocating to bonds? And the answer is no.
I think out of your mind, I think there’s an insanity point if people would take those to such extremes that they would totally set it and forget it and that ever tweak or modify their portfolio. And I love the way he answered that question. He said, of course I’d account for it JL Collins, of course I’d account for it. He’ll be coming out in a few weeks. So spoiler alert on that one. But I think that that’s the big takeaway on this and I think there’s a lot of work to do to go and explore this. And it comes down to what’s going to help you sleep at night and to Tyler’s point, a personalized approach for everyone with the best defense being income generation by the person in perpetuity, kind of antithetical to fire. But I think that’s the frustrating takeaway from today’s episode and the conversation for the last two. What do you think?

Mindy:
I think that today’s episode was kind of eyeopening or I hope it’s eyeopening for some of the listeners who are, and I don’t mean this in a bad way, but blindly following the 4% rule in theory. And it’s just like me. I am blindly following, not blindly, but following the 4% rule in theory, but not in actuality. Like you said, I don’t have a 60 40 stock portfolio stock bond portfolio. I have a 100% stock portfolio and I have some real estate, but more and more my portfolio is pushing towards more stock heavy. It used to be 50 50 and now I want to say it’s 70% in stocks. I don’t have the numbers in front of me right now. And who knows with the ups and downs of the market lately what it even is. Maybe I’m back to 50 50.

Scott:
Look, here’s a fun one, Mindy on this. People regularly miss, not only do they ignore the portfolio theory, they totally, they don’t even understand it in here. This is a great one. I pulled the BiggerPockets money community, our community with this after I’ve been discussing this over and over and over again and I said, true or false, JL Collins, author of the Simple Path to Wealth Invest in a portfolio that is 100% in broad based equities via low cost index funds and recommends the same for everyone from those just getting started to those in traditional early retirement. 62% of the BiggerPockets money audience said true to this, it’s unequivocably false. And at the 200 boat mark I posted in there the answer that it was false and people still continue to vote with the true false spread on this one after reading the comments on it.
So it’s like people don’t understand this theory in the fire community is totally ignored, misunderstood in most places and the actual research that is grounded in basis, people are defending the all stock portfolio allocation. Sent me a link to a study that came out a few weeks ago. We should definitely get these people on the podcast by the way. And they’re like, yeah, see a hundred percent stock portfolios are actually the safest when you account for inflation risk. Well yeah, those portfolios are generally a hundred percent allocated, not a hundred percent allocated to domestic, specifically US stocks. They have heavy concentrations international. In fact, most of the allocation is international in those portfolios. And when the stock market is priced at its current relative price to earnings level, the top quintile, the portfolio recommends that allocation to bonds in there. And it also recommends an allocation to cash in the first couple of years facing retirement.
So again, this portfolio theory stuff like I’m going down the rabbit hole big time, everybody’s got a fricking different answer to it and the answers that are actually widely established in researched like the 4% rule are totally ignored and works that are gospel in the fire community, like the simple path to wealth that are treated as the Bible for early financial freedom for a lot of folks and how to invest specifically say the opposite of what people state they say, but he does not state you should be in a hundred percent index funds on there. He says that for people getting started in the beginning of the journey in there, but he does not say that that is the case for someone about to or at retirement. Sorry, this rant continues week to week

Mindy:
I have continued to be in 100% stocks because there’s what the growth is once I retire. Carl and I have talked about putting money into more into bonds. It’s not 40%, but maybe 10. It’s just a different place that we are coming from now as opposed to, I have a job that covers all of our expenses. I don’t need to think about bonds yet. My job is my bond.

Scott:
Yeah, absolutely.

Mindy:
Alright, Scott, should we get out of here?

Scott:
Let’s do it.

Mindy:
That wraps up this episode of the BiggerPockets Money podcast. He is Scott Trench. I am Mindy Jensen saying TLU kangaroo.

 

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Property managers were considered essential for anyone who owned a rental for decades. They handled everything from marketing to lease agreements to maintenance and tenant communication. 

They took their cut, of course, usually between 8% and 12% of your gross rent—sometimes more. And for many landlords, that trade-off seemed worth it.

But here’s the truth in today’s rental market: You probably do not need a property manager anymore. At least, not if you want to maximize your cash flow and maintain complete control. Thanks to platforms like TurboTenant, managing your rental property has become more efficient, more affordable, and far less intimidating than it once was.

This is for every landlord who has ever wondered: “Can I really manage this myself?” The answer is yes, and it may be easier than you think.

What Is Property Management, Really?

Before we get into the tech, let’s define what a property manager traditionally does. Their responsibilities typically include:

  • Listing and marketing the property
  • Screening tenants
  • Drafting and executing leases
  • Collecting rent
  • Managing tenant communication
  • Coordinating maintenance
  • Handling lease renewals and legal compliance

That list used to sound overwhelming. But now, almost every one of those tasks can be handled online, many of them with just a few clicks. In most cases, you can automate 80% of the work, leaving you with only the highest-value decisions.

Screening Tenants

Tenant screening used to require applications, phone calls, and faxed credit reports. Now, it takes just minutes. With TurboTenant, applicants fill out their information online and pay for their background and credit reports. Once submitted, you receive a secure package with everything you need to evaluate the applicant.

No printer, no calls to credit bureaus, and no awkward meetings are needed. You get a full view of their rental history, financial health, and background in one organized dashboard. 

You make the decision, with no property manager needed.

Marketing Your Rental

You no longer need to post your rental to every platform manually. You can easily syndicate your listing to over 50 rental sites, including Zillow, Apartments.com, Realtor.com, and others. That means you write one description, upload your photos once, and your property gets exposure across every central platform. You can get your listing in front of thousands of potential renters in less than 15 minutes without spending a dime on third-party marketers or rental agencies.

Lease Agreements

Creating a lease agreement meant hiring an attorney, downloading a generic PDF, or copying someone else’s document online. Today, TurboTenant offers customizable, lawyer-reviewed lease templates tailored to your state’s laws.

You just plug in the property details, lease terms, rent amount, and tenant information. Within minutes, you have a professional lease you can send for electronic signature. There are even AI Tools to cross reference your lease with existing landlord-tenant laws in your state and get a free lease audit. There are no appointments, paperwork, or second-guessing whether it will hold up in court.

Rent Collection

Gone are the days of collecting rent checks, swinging by the property to pick up cash, or wondering if a payment is lost in the mail. And while peer-to-peer apps like Venmo or Zelle may seem convenient, they often lack the professionalism, tracking, and protections landlords need. With online rent collection, tenants can pay securely through bank transfer or credit card. You can set up automatic payment reminders and even include late fee policies that apply automatically if rent is overdue. 

As a landlord, you get notified when rent is received and deposited into your account. There is no chasing, no spreadsheets, and no confusion about who’s paid and who has not. These software systems even send reminders and auto-apply late fees, so you’re not the bad guy.

Communication and Maintenance Requests

Yes, you will still need to communicate with your tenants and coordinate repairs. But modern software makes this much simpler.

TurboTenant allows tenants to message you through a centralized portal, so you do not have to mix business with your text messages or emails. Conversations stay organized and accessible, especially during disputes or renewals.

When maintenance issues arise, tenants can submit requests through the same portal. You can assign those requests to your preferred vendors, track the status, and keep tenants updated without playing phone tag. If you do not have vendors or want to be more hands-off, TurboTenant even offers a maintenance coordination service to handle the scheduling for you.

When You Should Consider Managing It Yourself

Not every landlord will want to self-manage forever. Hiring a property manager may make sense if you manage dozens of units across multiple markets or simply want an entirely passive experience. 

But if you have a smaller portfolio and want to keep more of your rental income while staying in control, DIY management is more than doable. In fact, it is easier than ever before.

With the right tools, the job no longer requires constant time, stress, or expertise. Most of what used to require phone calls, forms, and gatekeepers live in one dashboard, accessible from your laptop or phone.

The Financial and Practical Case for Managing It Yourself

Hiring a property manager can quickly eat into your profits. As mentioned, most charge between 8% and 12% of the monthly rent, with additional fees for tenant placement, lease renewals, maintenance coordination, and more. For a single unit, that can add up to thousands of dollars per year, which could be spent working harder for you elsewhere.

By managing your rental yourself with a platform like TurboTenant, you can save on those costs and stay in complete control of your investment. The money you save can be reinvested into property upgrades, used to fund your next deal, or simply boost your monthly cash flow. Despite managing it yourself, you are still offering your tenants a professional, seamless experience.

Self-management may initially sound intimidating, but it is entirely achievable with the right tools. What once required a property manager or whole support team can now be done from your laptop or phone in a few hours a month. TurboTenant gives you everything you need to succeed as a DIY landlord: screening, marketing, leases, rent collection, communication, and maintenance requests, all in one place.

You do not need to fire your property manager if you never hired one in the first place. You just need the right system—and now, you have one. Start managing your rental the smarter way with TurboTenant today.



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Most investors spend hours analyzing deals, crunching numbers, and calculating returns before they ever close on a property. But ask them how much time they’ve spent refining their tenant screening process—and you’ll usually get silence.

And that’s a problem. Because a great deal can turn into a disaster if you put the wrong person inside the property.

Whether you’re a landlord managing a single rental or a property manager overseeing 50 doors, the tenant you choose has a direct impact on your bottom line. Nonpayment, property damage, lawsuits, city fines—it all starts with who you rent to.

This post is all about helping you avoid those nightmare scenarios by getting serious about tenant screening, lease agreements, and smart protections like insurance. We’ll break it down step by step so you’re not just guessing. Because if you’re going to spend all that time finding the right deal, you should spend just as much time protecting it.

Investors will spend weeks—even months—analyzing deals, calculating cap rates, and hunting for the perfect property. But then, when it’s time to hand over the keys, they rush to get anyone in the door without asking the right questions.

That’s like spending months rehabbing a flip to perfection but then leaving the front door wide open. Just because the property looks great doesn’t mean the person walking through it won’t wreck everything you built. Your property might be a gold mine, but the wrong tenant can turn it into a financial sinkhole—fast.

One of the biggest mistakes I see landlords and property managers make—especially early on—is rushing to fill a vacancy without properly vetting the tenant. And trust me, I get it. Every day a unit sits empty, you’re losing money. But filling your property with the wrong person can cost you way more than a few weeks of vacancy.

Let’s break down the three biggest risks of poorly vetted tenants so you can understand just how much damage one bad decision can cause.

1. Late Rent and Evictions

This one’s obvious, but it’s also the most common.

When you skip the tenant screening process, you risk renting to someone with a history of late payments, bounced checks, or even evictions. 

And once that person is in your unit? Good luck getting them out quickly. Evictions can drag on for months. You could be out thousands in unpaid rent, legal fees, court costs, and lost time.

And the craziest part is that even if you win in court, actually collecting from someone who already couldn’t pay rent is an entirely different battle.

2. Property Damage

The second big risk? Property damage. And not just the “oops, I spilled wine on the carpet” type of damage. I’m talking about serious neglect, misuse, or even malicious destruction of your property.

Tenants who don’t care about maintaining the property often:

  • Ignore small issues that become big problems
  • Overload electrical circuits or tamper with HVAC systems
  • Let pets destroy flooring or baseboards
  • Leave behind heaps of junk or biohazards when they move out

In extreme cases, I’ve seen tenants punch holes in walls, rip out cabinets, or even remove appliances and sell them.

And the worst part is that your standard security deposit usually doesn’t come close to covering the full cost of those repairs.

3. Liability Risks

The third risk most landlords overlook? Liability.

If your tenant (or one of their guests) gets injured on the property and decides to sue, you could be held responsible—especially if they argue you were negligent in addressing hazards or maintaining a safe environment.

But what if a tenant slips and falls down broken stairs, trips on a loose tile, or gets injured by faulty wiring they themselves tampered with? These scenarios are more common than you might think—and they open the door to negligence claims.

Poorly vetted tenants might:

  • Ignore obvious safety hazards and then claim injury
  • Cause damage that creates unsafe conditions for themselves or others
  • Fail to report issues in a timely manner, increasing the risk of accidents

And if someone gets hurt? You could be the one getting that legal notice—even if you didn’t cause the problem.

When it comes to liability, ignorance isn’t a shield. Courts often side with the injured party, especially if they claim the landlord failed to maintain a safe living environment.

So, if you take nothing else from this section, let it be this: A bad tenant isn’t just a headache—they’re a financial time bomb. Vetting your tenants isn’t optional—it’s a fundamental part of protecting your investment.

Proper Screening Protects Landlords

So we covered what happens when you let the wrong person into your property—now let’s talk about what to do before that happens so you can actually protect yourself.

And here’s what it really comes down to: Screening your tenants isn’t just paperwork—it’s your first and best line of defense.

A solid screening process doesn’t guarantee you’ll never have a problem tenant, but it dramatically increases the odds that you’ll get responsible, stable renters who respect your property and pay on time.

Let’s break down the four pillars of a smart tenant screening process:

1. Background and credit checks

First up: Run a full background and credit check. You want to know who this person is before they move in. Check for:

  • Criminal history
  • Past evictions
  • Collections, bankruptcies, or charge-offs
  • Credit score trends (not just the number, but the story it tells)

Someone with a 680 credit score who’s consistently paid off their debts is very different from someone who went from 750 to 600 because they defaulted on everything in the last six months.

And if you see prior evictions? That’s a giant red flag, especially if it’s recent.

A tenant’s history tells you what kind of future they’re likely to have—especially under your roof.

2. Rental history and verification

The next step is verifying their rental history. Call their past landlords. Ask questions like:

  • Did they pay rent on time?
  • Were there any complaints?
  • Did they follow the lease?
  • Would you rent to them again?

You’d be surprised how much you can learn from just a few conversations.

And if a tenant refuses to provide landlord references? Or does it only give you the cell number of a “friend” who pretends to be their former landlord? Huge red flags.

Take the time to cross-check the info—look up property ownership records to make sure you’re talking to the actual landlord.

3. Employment and income verification

Even a model tenant on paper can fall behind if they don’t have the income to support the rent. So always verify:

  • Their place of employment
  • Length of time on the job
  • Monthly income (ask for pay stubs or bank statements)

It’s common for landlords to require tenants to make a certain multiple of the rent. It could be 3x the rent, or it could be 1.5x the rent. This will probably vary, depending on your area. But, for example, if the rent is $2,000 a month and you want 3x, then the tenant should make at least $6,000 a month before taxes.

Also—and this is key—you want stable income. If someone just started a new job or they have sporadic gig work with no consistency, that should give you pause.

4. Lease agreements and clear expectations

Finally, put it all in writing. A strong lease isn’t just legal protection—it’s your playbook. Spell out things like:

  • Maintenance responsibilities (who handles what)
  • Guest and pet policies
  • Rent due dates and late fees
  • Required renters insurance

And don’t just hand them the lease and hope they read it. Walk them through it. Ask if they have questions. Confirm they understand what they’re agreeing to. Setting expectations early prevents misunderstandings later.

Tenant screening isn’t about being overly strict—it’s about being consistent. Your goal is to apply the same process to every applicant so you stay fair, compliant, and protected. Because the second you make an exception for someone who “seems nice” or “just needs a break,” that’s when things start to unravel, and you can find yourself in trouble—or worse, out of compliance with local housing laws and fair housing regulations. 

Insurance Provides an Additional Safety Net

So we’ve talked about screening your tenants like a pro. But even if you do everything right—run background checks, verify income, call references—stuff can still go wrong.

That’s where insurance steps in. Think of insurance as your financial airbag.

You hope you never need it. But when something hits the fan—and in real estate, it eventually will—it can be the one thing that saves you from a full-on financial crash.

Let’s break down the four key types of insurance every landlord should seriously consider:

1. Landlord insurance

This is your foundational coverage. If you own rental property and you don’t have landlord insurance? You’re exposed.

Here’s what landlord policies typically cover:

  • Damage to the physical structure from things like fire, storms, or vandalism
  • Liability protection in case a tenant or guest is injured on the property

And here’s a big one: Landlord insurance is not the same as a standard homeowners policy.

Homeowners insurance is designed for owner-occupants. The moment you convert a property into a rental, the type of coverage you need changes, which is why landlord policies are so important. 

2. Property Management Errors & Omissions (PME&O)

If you’re self-managing your rentals or even managing on behalf of others, PME&O coverage can be a game changer. This protects you if a tenant (or owner, if you’re managing third-party property) accuses you of mismanagement. That could include:

  • Mishandling applications
  • Discriminatory screening practices
  • Failure to maintain the property

Basically, it covers any clerical or professional error that results in a lawsuit.

You might think, “Well, I’m careful—that won’t happen to me.” But in this business, even a perceived mistake can cost you. PME&O helps cover legal defense, settlements, or judgments.

3. Require renters insurance

Last but definitely not least, make renters insurance mandatory. This doesn’t cost you anything as the landlord, but it adds a critical layer of protection.

Renters insurance covers:

  • The tenant’s personal property (in case of theft, fire, etc.)
  • Temporary housing if the unit becomes uninhabitable
  • Tenant liability if they damage your unit or a neighbor’s

But here’s where it helps you: If their dog bites someone? Their liability coverage kicks in first. If they flood your unit with a busted washing machine hose? Their policy may help with the cleanup.

Renters insurance is cheap—usually $10 to $20 a month. So requiring it isn’t a big ask, but it can save everyone a lot of money and headaches. You can’t predict every issue, but you can prepare for them.

The right insurance stack doesn’t just protect your property; it protects your business, time, and peace of mind.

4. Tenant Damage Protection 

This one flies under the radar—but it’s a smart layer of protection.

A Tenant Protector Plan is a group policy you (the landlord) purchase, and it’s designed to step in when damage or liability stems from tenant negligence. Think of it as your backup when the renter causes a mess and either isn’t insured or doesn’t have enough coverage.

Here’s what a solid TPP can include:

  • Tenant Liability Coverage – Covers damage caused by tenant negligence 
  • Property Coverage – Protects against things like sewer or drain backups, sump pump failures, and more
  • Contents Coverage – Reimburses tenants for their personal property if they cause a loss that affects their unit or an adjoining one
  • Skip Rent Coverage – Helps recover rent if the tenant bounces, passes away, gets deployed, or is evicted

It also works in excess of any renters insurance they already have, which is great because let’s face it, not all tenants keep that coverage in place consistently.

Bonus: TPP helps maintain a cleaner claims history for you, which can mean better insurance terms down the line.

And you know what that means: lower premiums, fewer headaches, and more predictability in your cash flow.

Need Help Making All This Easier?

If all of this feels overwhelming, tenant damage, compliance issues, lawsuits, insurance paperwork…you’re not alone.

That’s why I always recommend checking out National Real Estate Insurance Group (NREIG).

They’re not just an insurance company. They specialize in working with real estate investors. That means they actually get what you’re dealing with.

From customized landlord coverage to their Tenant Protector Plan® to liability protection for short-term rentals, they make it way easier to keep your portfolio protected.

And let’s be real—having a team in your corner who knows the ins and outs of protecting rental properties? That’s a game-changer.

So, if you’re tired of piecing together coverage or worrying about what happens when a tenant trashes your unit, check out NREIG.com and see what a tailored, investor-focused insurance partner can do for you.

You can’t predict every issue, but you can prepare for them.

The right insurance stack doesn’t just protect your property. It protects your business, your time, and your peace of mind.

Final Thoughts

If you’re going to invest in real estate, you need to treat it like a business. And no real business leaves itself wide open to liability, unnecessary risk, or financial leaks. That’s exactly what happens when you overlook tenant screening, skip strong lease agreements, or don’t carry the right insurance.

You wouldn’t skip the inspection on a six-figure property, right? So don’t skip the protection on a six-figure investment. Because it’s not just about filling a vacancy—it’s about protecting your cash flow, your property, and your peace of mind.

So, just to recap:

  • Bad tenants aren’t just annoying—they can cost you thousands.
  • A solid screening process filters out most of those problems before they ever show up.
  • A clear lease protects everyone and sets the tone from day one.
  • And insurance? That’s your financial backup plan when things don’t go as planned.

You might not be able to eliminate risk entirely, but you can absolutely control how much exposure you’re willing to take on. And that difference? That’s what separates casual landlords from serious operators.

So slow down. Build your systems. And protect what you’re working so hard to build.



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Scaling from your first short-term rental (STR) to a full portfolio isn’t just about finding excellent properties but the right way to finance them. And if you’re still relying on traditional mortgages as you grow, you might be hitting roadblocks that smarter investors have already worked around.

Here’s the truth: You can’t scale a serious STR business using the same financing strategy that helped you buy your first deal. Eventually, you’ll need to switch to investor-focused solutions built to help you grow faster and smarter without overextending yourself financially.

Let’s break down the best financing strategies to help you go from one STR to many, with help from Host Financial.

The Financing Life Cycle of a Short-Term Rental Investor

If you are like most STR investors, you start with a conventional loan. I started on my first properties with traditional loans and had no idea that, eventually, it wouldn’t be as easy. 

I get it, though, as conventional loans are sometimes a great resource. It’s familiar, relatively cheap, and easy to get, assuming you have a strong W-2 income and a good credit profile. 

But conventional financing has its limits:

  • It’s slow.
  • It caps out at 10 loans per individual.
  • It’s based heavily on your personal income, not the property’s earning potential.

As your portfolio grows, you’ll quickly reach these limits. At that point, it’s time to transition into more flexible, investor-driven options.

DSCR Loans: Built for Cash-Flowing Properties

DSCR (debt service coverage ratio) loans are designed to evaluate the deal, not the borrower.

Instead of using your personal debt-to-income ratio, DSCR lenders focus on the income the property produces. As long as the expected rent covers the debt service (typically with a ratio of .75 or better), you can qualify—even if you have little to no W-2 income. The higher the ratio, the better the deal. 

Why DSCR loans are ideal for STRs:

  • Faster approvals
  • No income verification
  • Reusable for future deals
  • Perfect for full-time investors or self-employed borrowers

That means investors can qualify faster, close quicker, and keep growing—even without W-2 income or hitting the 10-property cap conventional lenders impose. 

Host Financial specializes in matching investors with DSCR loans that fit their goals—acquiring a new high-performing STR, refinancing to unlock equity, or expanding into new markets without personal income verification holding them back.

Portfolio Loans and Cash-Out Refinancing

Once you’ve built up equity or multiple properties, it’s time to start using your assets to fund growth.

  • Cash-out refinancing allows you to pull equity from a high-performing STR to fund your next down payment, renovation, or even purchase a new property outright.
  • Portfolio loans allow you to group multiple properties under a single loan, simplifying your financing and unlocking capital that might be stuck in each unit.

How to Maximize Leverage Without Losing Cash Flow

Leveraging debt is one of the most potent tools for scaling a short-term rental portfolio. It allows you to grow faster without tying up all your cash. But if used carelessly, it can strain your cash flow and expose you to unnecessary risk.

Here are three rules that Host Financial often shares with investors:

  1. Know your break-even occupancy rate. Understand how low your occupancy can go before you start losing money.
  2. Build in capital reserves. Don’t use every dollar of equity. Hold back funds for repairs, slow seasons, or pivot opportunities.
  3. Use your best-performing STRs to fund new ones. Leverage your top assets to unlock better terms and reinvest into stronger markets.

Scaling is a balance of growth and sustainability. You want to move fast, but with a clear plan for cash flow, debt service, and risk.

When to Transition From Conventional to Investor-Focused Loans

The switch to DSCR or hard money loans typically happens when you hit lending caps with traditional mortgages, your personal debt-to-income ratio is maxed out, or you’ve gone full-time as an investor and no longer have consistent W-2 income. It also makes sense when you’re looking to move faster and avoid the red tape that comes with conventional financing. 

DSCR and hard money options aren’t just for distressed deals; they’re built for experienced investors who need flexible funding and speed to compete in today’s market.

For example, one investor Host Financial worked with in Texas used a DSCR loan to acquire two new properties in Austin after hitting their conventional lending limit. Six months later, they refinanced their highest-performing property, pulled $150K in equity, and used it to fund the down payment on a third STR without ever submitting a W-2.

Ready to Scale Smarter?

Host Financial has helped thousands of short-term rental investors scale using this exact model, especially those who’ve outgrown the limitations of conventional financing. From first-time hosts looking to acquire their second or third property to full-time operators managing portfolios across multiple states, Host provides tailored lending solutions that prioritize speed, flexibility, and the income-producing power of the property itself.

Whether it’s a cash-out refinance on a high-performing cabin, a DSCR loan on a new vacation rental in a hot market, or a portfolio loan to consolidate and simplify multiple STRs, Host Financial understands the unique needs of short-term rental investors and builds lending strategies that support sustainable growth.

Learn more about scaling with Host Financial and get started today.



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I was recently asked by a fellow investor what I thought of the Omaha, Nebraska, market and if it was a good place for out-of-state investors to find cash flow or appreciation. I looked at price, rent, growth, and supply data from the Census, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Building Permit Survey to find out.

The Overall Economy

The first thing I look at when analyzing a market is its job growth. Are companies moving into the area (or being created) and hiring more people? The answer is fascinating.

In the past five years, Omaha has seen a modest 1.1% increase in total nonfarm jobs. So what’s happening? According to the BLS, professional and business service jobs, as well as financial services jobs, appear to be shrinking across the metro area. 

However, the education and health services sector has really taken off over the past two years, making up for the difference. But why? It’s possible the increase in population (5.4% over the last five years) has led to increased demand for healthcare services:

After all, the largest employers in the area are numerous different healthcare centers, as well as the Offutt Air Force Base. 

Another thing to note is that Omaha’s unemployment rate (3.5%) is less than the national metro average (4.5%). While the economy may not be as hot as the popular Sunbelt cities, the growing population indicates there is a high demand for work in this market.

Housing Supply and Demand

The next thing I analyzed is the supply and demand of housing units in a market. This can be done by looking at the total number of units available and comparing that to the number of actual households.

The gap you see between those lines represents the number of vacant units. The smaller the gap, the smaller the vacancy. And a decreasing vacancy means competition for housing is rising — a great sign for landlords seeking stable occupancy and long-term rent growth. Take a look at the vacancy rate trend below:

Over time, the vacancy rate has decreased. This rising competition for housing can also start to push prices up, which is great news for investors. Just take a look at price growth over time:

This price growth data comes from the U.S. Census (which usually underestimates market price, given the nature of the survey). So, I would also like to point out the price and rent data from Zillow.

Market investment metrics:

  • Median price: $283,000 
  • Median rent: $1,500
  • Rent–to-price ratio: 0.5%
  • Five-year population growth: 5.4%
  • Five-year household growth: 8.0%

Compared to coastal markets, Omaha offers strong returns at a fraction of the buy-in cost. With an affordable median price, solid median rent, a good labor market, and solid household growth, Omaha is a great market for long-term-focused out-of-state investors.

Realbricks makes it possible to co-own high-quality, cash-flowing rental properties in Omaha with no landlord headaches. With just $100, you can start investing passively — no need to manage tenants, find deals, or fly in from out of state. It’s a game-changer for anyone who wants real estate exposure without the traditional barriers.

Realbricks does the heavy lifting — from property acquisition to management — making it perfect for first-time investors, seasoned experts looking to diversify, or busy working professionals. Click to learn more about how Realbricks works.

Like with every other asset, do your own due diligence on the market and the underlying property before making an investment decision.



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Picture this: You just moved into your brand-new home, having just relocated to this town days ago to start your new dream job, and are full of excitement. The rooms are filled with that brisk smell of having recently been painted. The countertops don’t have a speck of dust on them and glisten whenever the sun’s light touches them. The master bedroom is on the second floor, with a large bay window that looks out on the beautiful park next door, the downtown in the background. 

You smile with satisfaction, knowing that all that’s left is to go through the arduous process of moving all of your stuff in, and then you can relax to a well-earned night of sleep in your new place, in a new city, with a new job.

And then…

The toilet overflows and raw sewage pours out all over your bathroom floor as noxious fumes fill the home in a vomit-inducing cloud of agony and despair. 

Now, do you think such an occurrence will increase or decrease the likelihood that this tenant will renew their lease a year from now? 

Such issues can poison what I call the second impression. The first impression is when a prospect views the property to either apply to rent or make an offer to buy. The second is when they move in or do their inspections. That second impression will go a long way in setting the tone for the landlord/tenant relationship or getting the property through the inspection period unscathed. 

It’s amazing how many little things get missed if you don’t go through and check on each detail. And sometimes, even big things can get missed. We’ve seen this over and over again. The more diligent we are in finishing a project the right way, the fewer problems we have renting it, or with the tenant after they move in.

Not doing a sufficient quality check can cause all sorts of problems with tenants and maintenance, but it can also cause issues when flipping. If a whole host of problems pop up on an inspection report, you better believe you are about to get a nasty resolution of unacceptable condition or perhaps even a cancellation.

This is why it’s not just good enough to do proper due diligence and budgeting. Nor is it good enough to put together thorough scopes of work, find quality contractors or employees, and diligently oversee construction. As Robin Sharma puts it, “Starting strong is good; finishing strong is epic.” 

This is where the punch-out and quality checks come in.

A Word on Checklists

I would highly recommend that anyone in real estate, or any business for that matter, pick up a copy of The Checklist Manifesto by Atul Gawande. It describes in meticulous detail how important it is to create systems and well, checklists, and follow through with them consistently. 

At one point, he describes how physician Peter Pronovost implemented a simple five-step checklist for a Michigan ICU when putting in a central line that was later adopted throughout the state. The steps were:

  1. Wash hands with soap.
  2. Clean the patient’s skin with chlorhexidine antiseptic.
  3. Put sterile drapes over the entire patient.
  4. Wear a mask, hat, sterile gown, and gloves.
  5. Put a sterile dressing over the insertion site once the line is in.

Seems simple enough. You would think, with seasoned and well-trained doctors and nurses, this would be little more than second nature and have no discernible effect. In fact, what Pronovost found after a year was remarkable, as Gawande notes:

“Within the first three months of the project, the central line infection rate in Michigan’s ICUs decreased by 66%. Most ICUs—including the ones at Sinai-Grace Hospital—cut their quarterly infection rate to zero. Michigan’s infection rates fell so low that its average ICU outperformed 90% of ICUs nationwide. In the Keystone Initiative’s first 18 months, the hospitals saved an estimated $175 million in costs and more than 15,000 lives. The successes have been sustained for several years now—all because of a stupid little checklist.”

There’s a reason you see the same thing amongst airplane pilots, mechanics, and other professions where life and death are on the line: Checklists work (perhaps Boeing should revisit this point).

You should be developing checklists throughout your business and using them consistently. They dramatically reduce the number of mistakes you will make and the number of things that fall through the cracks. But if there’s anywhere in a real estate business where this is the most important, it’s with putting together a scope of work and then finalizing everything with a quality check.

Quality Checks

Hopefully, I’ve explained why checklists, in general, and quality checklists, in particular, are critical. I will now describe how we do it. Of course, that doesn’t mean this is the best way. But we have put this system together over the course of 15 years, doing hundreds of rehabs and turnovers on our own properties and for clients throughout the Kansas City area. 

But whether you do it our way or another, it’s important to make quality checks (and thorough punch-out lists) a priority and do them consistently in the same way.

We base the quality check off our scope of work, which we put together by going through a detailed list of items and putting each one into Smartsheet (our project management software). It would be worth reviewing my article on scopes of work if you are unfamiliar with that process or think your system needs improvement. 

For each item that isn’t exceedingly obvious, we include a picture of the issue attached to that line item. The scope looks like this:

quality check checklist

Once the project has been completed, we go back through and check off each item to make sure it was done and done right. We then email the contractor (or employee) with the following color-coded list:

  • Blue: Item that needs to be done but was not on the original scope, making it an add-on.
  • Purple: Note, but no action needed.
  • Orange: Partially completed/not up to our standard.
  • Red: Same condition as before the job.

We include pictures of anything that isn’t plainly clear. The email we send looks something like this:

checklist

At this point, the contractor has until Thursday at 5 p.m. to send us pictures of each of the completed items in order to receive full payment that Friday. (We try to get this to them no later than Tuesday, usually sooner.) 

If the contract does not respond or fails to fix any of the non-blue items, we simply deduct the amount associated with that line item from their paycheck and use one of our other contractors or employees to finish up the last items. (And the contractor who failed to finish the punch-out list goes to the proverbial doghouse.)

Depending on your business, of course, this could look different. If you are operating an apartment complex with on-site property management, doing this through pictures and emails would be unnecessary, as you could just have the property manager walk down and verify the items were completed. In such properties where there are many similar units, you could also probably make standard checklists for the turnover staff to go through instead of going off the scope. 

Whatever you do, make sure to refine your system and checklist to get the kinks out of it. Then, follow through with that system the same way each time. It’s essential to make it a cookie-cutter operation. You absolutely don’t want to be flying by the seat of your pants or reinventing the wheel each time with every rehab and turnover.

Marketing and Deposit Dispositions

Last, I’ll give a quick note on marketing walkthroughs and deposit dispositions. When selling, we make sure everything is completely right before pictures, but we are a little more forgiving with rentals. Our leasing agent will take pictures and make a note if there are any items still not completed on the quality checks (or other things that they think should be done). But unless it is in terrible shape, we go ahead and market it for rent.

We then have a Last Fixes list that an employee or contractor will address as soon as we can, but because the items are so minor, we don’t wait to complete them before marketing.

The leasing agent will also do an amenities check if one hasn’t been done already. This involves noting things like if there’s a master bedroom, walk-in closet, fenced backyard, privacy fence or chain-link fence, gas stove or electric, finished basement, etc. We put all this information into our property management software and include it in our advertisements.

Regarding deposit dispositions, it’s important to know your state and local laws, as they differ widely. Where we are, we have 30 days to return the deposit to the tenant minus the cost of repairs. We do this by comparing the items on the scope of work to a cost sheet we put together. You can also use a contractor’s quote or the actual price to repair, but remember, you only have 30 days (at least where we are) to return the deposit, so you must be quick in determining the cost of the damages.

We also compare the repairs needed to the move-in checklist we provide each resident. On this form, they can note any deficiencies in the unit when they moved in. We tell them that if they don’t return the move-in checklist to us, we will assume all components of the unit were in working order at the time of move-in, so any damages will be deducted from the deposit. 

The move-in checklist looks like this:

move-in checklist

We also make adjustments for how long the tenant has been there, of course. If they lived there for 10 years, it’s not fair to charge them for replacing the carpet. Finally, we allow for appeals, but evidence our determination was wrong must be provided—and rarely is.

There is no perfect way to do dispositions, but we try to be as precise and systematic as possible and do it the same way every time to avoid heated arguments and potential legal disputes. But check your local and state laws before implementing any system for deposit dispositions.

Final Thoughts

With contractors, there are three really important things: price, quality, and speed. They say you can pick any two, but that’s it. (In case you’re wondering, you can get less than two, but never more.)

We track each of our contractors in these three departments. The way we evaluate quality is by the percentage of line items that pass our quality check. The best we ever have is 98%. But many are around 85%. 

So it should be no surprise that when you don’t do quality checks, lots of things get missed. At first, we didn’t do any quality checks. We learned very quickly that it leads to disaster. 

So we started doing them, but they were very vague. Things got a bit better, but it was still bad. So we kept getting more and more detailed, and it kept getting better. In that way, it’s very similar to our screening practices

In other words, this isn’t something to do halfway. That’s especially true with rehabs since many things that look fine are actually right on the edge. Thus, we make it a point to tell anyone moving into a house we just remodeled that it’s likely something will break shortly after they move in, because while it may have worked while being tested, it hasn’t been under a load. We definitely have more maintenance calls right after a move-in with rehabs than turnovers, so this would be a good thing to mention in such lease signings.

It would also be a good idea to make sure you can get out to properties just after someone moves in quickly to do any maintenance items that slipped through the cracks. Indeed, it might even be worth it to try and avoid having move-ins on Friday if convenient, at least when getting started. Remember how important those second impressions are. Quick, quality maintenance to fix any problems that do pop up upon move-in can pull a bad second impression out of the fire. 

A good rehab and marketing effort will provide a good first impression. A good quality check and punch-out list will provide a good second impression. Together, you will substantially improve your tenant relations and lease renewal percentage or get your properties sold more easily and with fewer headaches during the inspection period.

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What would you do with $8,500 in monthly cash flow? Quit your W2 job? Travel the world? Reinvest it? The possibilities are endless, and by blending investing strategies and getting creative when hunting for deals, today’s guest was able to “snowball” to $8,500/month with 10 rental units in just a few years!

Welcome back to the Real Estate Rookie podcast! In this episode, we’re chatting with Kelsey Porter, a real estate agent who caught the investing bug when a client introduced her to BiggerPockets. While most new investors focus on one strategy, Kelsey has tried a little bit of everything—house hacking, live-in flips, and short, medium, and long-term rentals. She has even rented out her primary residence for months at a time, a move that fully funded her wedding!

With “smedium”-term rentals, unique experiences, and even a Taylor Swift-themed Airbnb—which features a full-blown scavenger hunt—Kelsey has built a highly diversified real estate portfolio. Stay tuned to learn about Kelsey’s strategy for finding off-market deals and the “all-in-one” mortgage she used to tap into her home equity and scale fast!

Ashley:
Today’s guest is a rookie investor who has used many different strategies to build an $8,000 per month cashflowing portfolio from house hacking to live and flips to medium rental strategies. This rookie proves that putting in the extra effort can mean a huge difference in your cashflow.

Tony:
And what makes this story particularly interesting is how she’s turned her properties into unique experience in an unsuspecting market, including a Taylor Swift themed unit, complete with a custom scavenger hunt. Now, Kelsey Porter has built a portfolio using creative financing, hunting for off-market deals, putting in sweat equity, and keeping an entrepreneurial mindset for every single project.

Ashley:
This is the Real Estate Rookie podcast. And I’m Ashley Care.

Tony:
And I’m Tony j Robinson. And let’s give a warm, warm welcome to Kelsey. Kelsey, thank you so much for joining us today.

Ashley:
Oh my gosh, thank you so much for having me. I’m so excited to be here. So Kelsey, you caught the bug of real estate investing from one of your clients. Can you tell us that story?

Kelsey:
Yes. So I have been a realtor since 2018, and I did grow up around new construction and investment properties, some luxury spec homes in the lake of the Ozarks. So I did grow up around it, but it was never really on my radar until as a realtor I helped a first time home buyer in his twenties. Josh from Cleveland, Ohio, shout out to you. And he was obsessed with BiggerPockets, obsessed with the idea of house hacking for his first property. And yeah, I helped him buy a very reasonably priced duplex in the greater Cleveland area out there. And he taught me all about house hacking. I understood rental properties, but he was talking about the A RV after he would do some upgrades to the unit he was going to live in and everything. And yeah, I was like, I am capable of this. I think my other half will buy in. We got to get on board with this investing.

Ashley:
So what was the first step that you took to actually start investing in real estate?

Kelsey:
We flipped a flip for our first house, so our primary residence was a kind of live-in flip that was already flipped, but they skipped out on a few detrimental pieces. And as a realtor, I actually showed the house to a couple different people before we looked at it for ourselves and people kept passing up on it, and I was like, if she just would’ve taken it to the finish line, she could have gotten so much money for this flip. So we ended up buying it after it sat on the market for a while, lived in it, renovated it, did a couple key pieces that were pretty expensive, like a floor to ceiling, beautiful marble, tiled shower, rain shower, that was a walk-in. And it took us about a year to save up the funds to do those renovations. And so after we did them and dumped this money into our primary, we were kind of sitting on the couch one day and I was like, okay, how can we house hack next?
Should we sell this house? Should we rent it out? We have so much money tied up into it. And looking back, we probably would have done a cash out refinance or a HELOC or something. We had a very low interest rate on that house in, but we ended up selling it in 2021 so that we could take those funds out and put them towards our first investment properties. We still lived in Ohio at the time, and my dad called me from Des Moines, Iowa where we live now, and he had been redoing this duplex inside and out going way over the top on it in the Des Moines area. And he was like, Hey, remember that property I’ve been updating the last two years. I’m thinking about selling it. Do you think it’s worth much more than I paid for it? And so I didn’t have access to the MLS as a realtor in Iowa yet, but I ran what comps I could and realized, holy crap, dad, this duplex is worth way more than you paid for it.
Then I got off the phone with him, sat down, and I was like, wait a minute. This duplex that my dad has completely remodeled and done up really well is exactly the criteria that we’re looking for in a duplex in Cleveland, Ohio, but it’s 70 years newer. My dad’s the one that did the remodeling. Why don’t we just buy this? So I called him back and I was like, Hey, dad, you’re going to sell this duplex and you’re going to sell it to me. And he was like, what do you want? And out of state duplex in Des Moines, Iowa for, he’s been an investor for years, but he is local to his market. And so he was an out of state and duplex, what do you want that for? And I was like, no, no, no, we want it.

Tony:
And I love that your first two deals came from relationships or properties that you had a firsthand knowledge of. And obviously not everyone’s going to be in that same situation, but I think the lesson for rookies is that sometimes the right deal could be right underneath your nose and you not even recognize it. But I want to go back to the rehab on the flip that you flipped. So did you have any experience, I know you said you kind of grew up in new builds and things like that, but did you personally have any experience prior to that in managing a rehab or DIY projects of that sort?

Kelsey:
So being around my dad building houses when I was a kid, we were always bouncing around. He would put up a spec home, we would move into it, and then he would sell it out from under us and we’d have to move into the next one and so on and so on until he built his dream custom home. That took him several years to finish. But I was always kind of around that new construction, live in kind of renovation and finishes. So I have kind of always been around that project management, remodel, new construction. I just never really even thought about it until we bought this house that needed the shower for daily use.

Tony:
And aside from the shower, Kelsey, what other maybe leverage points did you guys focus on to increase the value of that property?

Kelsey:
Yeah, so just little bitty things. We did replace the basement windows, which they were original from the 1940s, so that adds a little bit of value, but it’s not sexy. The shower was very sexy, it was expensive. We also replaced the garage door. It was the old original, really, really heavy wood door with glass windows. It was a liability to be honest. And we replaced that with a new garage door with a motor and electric opener. I mean, who wants what first time home buyer, millennial nowadays wants to move into a house where they have to get out of their car, open up the garage door, drive in, shut it manually. I mean, it’s just little things like that. We added a patio out back, we added some arbor for privacy. There were still a couple houses behind us that hadn’t quite been brought up to today’s standards. But yeah, it was in an A plus neighborhood. We bought really, really well. I’m sure part of that was luck. And then part of that was skill, being a realtor myself and knowing what people are chasing.

Ashley:
Did you have any lessons learned on this project? Like looking back through the whole live and flip project that you did, is there anything that you would’ve done differently or you learned from that experience?

Kelsey:
Absolutely. I think I touched on it already, but we would have cash out Refied at the time, interest rates were still super low, so we would not have been sacrificing a low rate for a high rate or anything like that. But we absolutely would’ve done a cash out refi. It was a killer location, super close to Lake Erie in this beautiful park with a waterfall. We loved this house so much. We probably could have lived there forever. We loved our neighbors, we loved the community. The house was just absolutely adorable and came together so well. So looking back, I think that would be our biggest learning lesson is maybe don’t sell the real estate just because you need the money to invest and move on and do other things. Sometimes there’s more creativity you can put into it.

Tony:
So Kelsey, I think the million dollar question here is how did this live in flip actually turn out for you? So if you can just walk through the numbers quickly. What was the purchase price? What did you guys put in for the rehab? What were your total acquisition costs, and then what did you net on the backend when you sold?

Kelsey:
We paid $226,000 for this single family home in 2019. In 2020 we sold it for 3 25, so about $99,000, exactly more than we paid for it. Of that 99,000, our expenses in there. So our rehab expenses, the closing costs, marketing expenses, that kind of stuff that we were able to subtract out ended up being about 25,000. So our pure net on this property was approximately 75,000. And I know this off the top of my head because we had to pay capital gains. So I forgot to tell you that was another beautiful, wonderful, you don’t know what you don’t know. Learning experience from that one was we did not quite live there for two years. And I am notorious for asking for forgiveness rather than permission. So I knew capital gains was on my radar, the whole idea of it, but I was like, I think we’ll be able to get around this for sure. Let’s just sell it. Let’s keep this momentum going. No analysis paralysis here. Right? And then what do you know our CPA was like, yeah, you have to pay capital gains.

Tony:
It’d be funny if the IR Rs actually worked that way where you could say, Hey, my bad actually didn’t know about this. Can we just rewind and pretend like this didn’t happen? But IRS wants to get paid, so I don’t know if there’s someone you could ask for forgiveness

Ashley:
Maybe now that they’re cutting huge departments in the IRS that you will be able to do that.

Tony:
My bad. Yeah.

Ashley:
Okay. We have to take a short ad break, but when we come back, we are going to hear more from Kelsey on how she’s mastered the medium strategy and how she finds off market deals. We’ll be right back. Let’s get back into it with Kelsey. So Kelsey, I’m one of your more recent deals. You were house hacking a duplex. Can you give us an overview of this project and how you made it work?

Kelsey:
So we currently live in our dream home that we will probably live in for a very long time and potentially raise kids in and having Airbnbs in our portfolio already. I came home one day and I was like, Hmm, I wonder what someone would rent this new construction, four to five bedroom, three full bathroom, finished basement home for right, because that’s just how you think as an investor is like, I wonder what someone would rent our primary out for. So we put it up online and turned a few groups away that just didn’t necessarily make sense. And then we got a knock on our door one night, and this really, really nice absolute pleasure of a couple was building their dream home. It was a custom build that was taking significantly longer than they expected, and they needed a place to stay than your average kind of Airbnb situation.
And so they wanted to live in our house for three months. So we said, okay, we’ll be out in a few days. And then they moved in. And then that project ended up taking almost a year. It was about nine months that they rented out our personal residence furnished, which paid for our wedding that we have coming up in October. Fun little thing there. And while we were doing that, we bounced around our rentals, one of which was a house hacked duplex. We purchased, we lived in the first unit, we completely gutted it. And yeah, I wrote these letters to duplex owners and this couple got back and they were like, we’re moving out of state to be closer to family, which is what we did when we moved here to Des Moines and we are considering selling our duplex. And I was like, cool.
We are considering buying it. Let’s talk about it. So we ended up getting that deal off Market House hacked it completely gutted the inside of one unit and the outside of the entire duplex. We lived in both sides. At one point, I’ll rent out anything, don’t leave your house vacant too long because my parents joke that I will have their house rented out when they come back from Florida. I can rent out anything and for a lot of money, so I’ll make you a lot of money if I rent your house out. But that’s just something I’m notorious for. So we finished gutting the inside of the one unit while we’re living there, which we lived without a living room for about 30 to 35 days. So we were just working and relaxing at night in bed. We spent way too much time in bed when we didn’t have a living room. And then once we started coming to a completion of the inside of that unit, I actually filled it on furnished finder with a travel nurse for the winter. And so I was like, Ooh, sorry, I’m kicking us out and we have to move next door into the other unit and do the same thing all over again because I’ve got a travel nurse moving in here.

Ashley:
I want to go back to the very beginning. Just on a whim, you decide to list your primary residence. Was this on Furnish Finder too that you listed it on?

Kelsey:
Yes, on Furnished Finder, on Airbnb and on Zillow, just because it’s a more luxury, medium term situation. So we kind of put our eggs in a lot of baskets.

Ashley:
So in this situation, you get somebody that wants to rent it and you move out with, you said a couple of weeks. What are some of the things that you must do? You’re living in this property to get it ready. Is there anything that was like, you must do these three things if you are moving out of your primary, leaving all your stuff basically to get it ready for a renter or nothing, you just have to take your personal longings and go,

Kelsey:
Yeah, so this was a pretty unique situation in the sense that we didn’t have a lot of competition in our suburb, and these people wanted to move in really quick, really sought after this property and knocked on our door. And so I was actually at pickleball, it was a Tuesday night. My fiance texted me and was like, somebody just knocked on our door and wants to rent our house. And I’m like, what? And so they were like, we know it’s really sudden, but we’d love to move in Sunday. This was Tuesday night. And he was like, no way. That’s too soon. And they were like, it’s fine. This house is perfect. We just really want to be here while we’re waiting on our new build. So whatever you need to make work, we can make work. And so I come home from pickleball and he’s like, yeah, get this.
They wanted to move in Sunday. And I was like, ha ha. And then I thought about it and I was like, I think we could do it. And he was like, what? And I was like, yeah, I think we live very minimalist. We have two spare bedrooms. It’s just the two of us. We have barely any photos up on the walls. It’s all just simple artwork. We’re just pretty minimalist. We don’t have a bunch of stuff in all of our closets. I do have a very organized OCD storage room for my Airbnb supplies. So that was a bit of a cluster. We kind of moved that into, my parents have an outbuilding, but it’s like 45 minutes to 50 minutes away from Des Moines. So that was not very convenient. But yeah, I mean basically I just got Ale Keypad, which I’m like a huge SLE gal, and I put it underneath our stairs to the basement. There’s a little closet where I keep my real estate stuff and my signs, my lock boxes and all that. And so we just started dumping everything we didn’t need for what we thought was going to be three months, but ended up being nine months plus. I mean, honestly, this couple treated our house better than we do. So yeah, they were great. And we just put a keypad on a closet door and shoved everything we didn’t need to take with us.

Tony:
Now the other part, you said that you moved into this duplex, but you briefly mentioned that you founded by sending out letters to different owners. I guess a couple of follow-up questions here, but first, how did you build this list of potential duplexes to send to? Were you driving for dollars? Were you pulling from some website? And then what did you actually say in the letter that prompted the response?

Kelsey:
Yes, I’m an open book about these letters because they are a little bit of work. So we would drive for dollars. We drove for dollars for probably the first six months we lived in Des Moines. But yeah, so I’ve sent about 75 of these letters out over the last couple years, and I have successfully closed three deals from them. I’ve had seven total responses. Two of them were crazy and wanted way too much, and I was like, whatever. And then two of them, I’m nurturing. So those are nurture leads. And I know for a fact I will buy those duplexes in the next couple of years because I’m going to be the first person they call. And yeah, I’ve been nurturing those relationships. So it is a Canva designed letter, and I’m an open book about sharing that with other people, mainly because I know a lot of people won’t put in the work. It takes work to hand write some of the details on the envelopes and the letters and to get ’em printed and to take ’em to the post office and to drive for dollars and then stock who owns these properties. It’s a lot of work, but it’s been extremely fruitful for us.

Ashley:
Well, getting seven callbacks and closing three of those, I feel like that’s a pretty good ratio. I mean, I’m not in sales, but I feel like that’s pretty good.

Kelsey:
Yes, no, it really is. And as a realtor, I have sent out thousands of mailers. I’ve spent thousands of dollars doing these mailers as a realtor to try to pick up listings and clients, and I’ve never gotten a callback, not once. And I’ve used all these fancy schmancy systems and all this stuff. So I just went back to the basics, back to old school. I’m going to design this letter, I’m going to print them, I’m going to hand write as much as possible. I’m going to send them manually. And that has worked.

Tony:
Kelsey, what are you actually saying in the letter when you mail it out?

Kelsey:
So I start by introducing, hi. So we have a picture, have a cute picture of us on there because I think it’s really important to put a face to a name and I just introduce us. I say I’m Kelsey and Carson. We own the duplex over at 1 2 3 Main Street. I actually put one of our duplex addresses, whichever one’s closest to the duplex, I’m asking them to sell me. And that is strategic. I want these middle-aged retired landlords to drive by our duplexes and see, wow, younger couples really taking care of their properties. They really are doing things right. I’m not afraid of people knowing what we own when I’m trying to buy something from them. So I actually put in the letter, we own the property over at 1 2 3 Main Street and that we’re looking to grow our portfolio that I’m a realtor, so I do disclose that upfront and that he is a data analyst and that we’re just obsessed with real estate and we really want to grow our portfolio here locally in Des Moines and that we live down in the Norwalk suburb.
And I’ve got family that helps us, and it’s a whole family team ordeal that we’re doing. And then I go on to let them know how long we’ve been together. We’ve been together about 13 years. We met at Truman State University in northeast Missouri. And everyone in the Midwest kind of knows the surrounding Midwest states. And so the fact that we’ve got family in Kansas City and St. Louis and Omaha and down in rural parts of Iowa, it’s relatable, I think, for a lot of these people. And then I just close it out by basically not being salesy at all and just open-end. We would love to buy this duplex from you. We could potentially have a cash conventional financing or seller financing option for you. And then I kind of explain in one little quick sentence without being pushy that the seller financing option could mean complete passive income, which as landlords, we all know that almost doesn’t exist unless you’re a private money lender or something. It’s hard to be very hands off and still make that mailbox money. So I actually say that directly with the seller financing option. And then I close out by saying, if you’re not willing to sell this to us, no big deal. We also love networking with other investors locally, and we’d love to hear your story and how you got started. I think it’s just very not pushy, not salesy, and it just opens the floor for relationship building.

Ashley:
Kelsey, how have you been able to finance all of these properties?

Kelsey:
So we have been self-funded up until now, and basically we’re just, again, frugal live under our means. So if that means continuing to cook meals in all the time and squirreling away funds or traveling only when we have a place to stay because friends have a vacation home somewhere or stay with friends somewhere, whatever it takes to squirrel away as much as possible to snowball into that next property, that’s really what’s worked for us. And then house hacking previously and putting less down to be able to have funds to do the remodels and the furnishing of units, that’s really helped as well. But most of our loans have been conventional either five to 10% down primary residence, house hacking loans, or we’ve had a few that are just traditional investing loans too, where we put 25% down, and those always hit a little harder because you got to come up to the closing table with so much more cash. But in the end, we’ve been doing the short and medium term method with these units so that we can cashflow more than any other method so that then we can snowball into the next.

Tony:
I love that idea. And just one last question from me on the direct mail piece, so fascinated by this amazing response rate that you have, but you had also mentioned that you’ve got a couple of leads right now that you’re nurturing. And I think that’s something that a lot of Ricky’s don’t fully grasp is that the likelihood of you sending a piece of mail and closing that deal in one conversation or even two conversations is exceptionally low. So what does nurturing look like for you, Kelsey? How are you nurturing these leads to the point where they actually say yes on you buying their property?

Kelsey:
So I think this comes from years of experience as a realtor and top top and training as a realtor. But when I say I’m nurturing these leads, that means that every couple months I have a touch, which means I am in contact with them some way if that’s just shooting them a text saying happy birthday, or I hope everything’s going well with your daughter and the new grand baby you have, or if it’s, Hey, just drove by the property and noticed you guys removed that tree, it looks so good. And then also I include, this is so funny, but I include all of these nurture leads for potential investment properties. I include these people’s names and personal residence addresses on our Christmas card list. So they’re getting a Christmas card from me every year. They’re getting these touch points every couple months. And then once in a while I’ll send out a postcard follow up to that letter just saying like, Hey, don’t forget about us. We want to buy your duplex when you’re ready. So again, not salesy. I do not believe in cold calling as a realtor or an investor. I’ve had to do that before for work, and I have not enjoyed it, and I only believe in doing things that I enjoy. So yeah, it’s just some touch points throughout the year to just remind them why wouldn’t they call me when they’re ready to sell, is what I want the whole aura of the situation to be.

Ashley:
It seems like one of your strengths as a real estate investor is the networking and just keeping in touch with people sending out those mailers to Christmas cards. Is there anything else that you are doing to keep in touch with other investors or contractors or leads that you’re doing that sets you apart from other investors that aren’t as active in the networking piece?

Kelsey:
So I go to any networking event that has anything to do with real estate or contractors or real estate investing in the greater Des Moines area. I’m always, always looking at what is my next event? I’m going to, I’m very involved at the local level through our chamber of commerce here, and so I’m meeting other people in business constantly with that and building relationships with other investors locally is one great because I’m a realtor, so if I ever have a property, I could take it to them if it fits their buy box and maybe sell a house from it. But mainly I build these relationships because I believe in an abundance mindset. I think that there are investors out there and realtors and any industry has them, but I think there’s a lot of people out there that think, Ooh, this deal crossed my desk.
I have to have it. I’m not letting anyone else buy this. And I believe in abundance mindset. So if it’s not good timing for us and our finances, if we’re still bouncing back from that last property we purchased, or maybe it just doesn’t quite fit our buy box exactly, I’m going to pass that on to another investor. And ideally someone who hasn’t even bought any properties yet and they’ve got that bug and they want to start, but they don’t know where to begin. That’s what I believe in with my networking is building these relationships, having that abundance mindset, being able to pass off these deals if they don’t necessarily work for us at that time, because there’s always going to be another one. And while there are finite properties, and that’s why I love the Mark Twain quote of buy land, they’re not making any more of it. There is finite real estate, but for X, Y, Z reasons, people are selling things all the time and offloading properties all the time. So if this deal doesn’t work out and I can hook someone else up with this deal, the next one is going to be even more perfect for our buy box. So

Tony:
Now something else I want to ask you here, Kelsey, is I know that you’ve spent a lot of time researching the right loan product, and I think Ashley and I both have benefited as we’ve built our portfolio and getting access to certain loan products, maybe other folks were overlooking weren’t aware of or maybe just weren’t offered at the banks that they were going to. And you’ve got something called this all in one mortgage. So I’ve personally never heard of this. Ashley hasn’t, our listeners probably haven’t as well. So what is it and why has it been beneficial for you?

Kelsey:
So that was actually our very first duplex. So if you remember, I said we put a bunch of our funds that we pulled out of that first flip into our first duplex. We bought it traditionally in terms of it wasn’t a house hack, it was a true investment. So we had to put 25% down. Well, if you remember, we just put about 25 grand into that flip out of pocket and had to sell, or we thought we had to sell at the time to pull money out to buy our first rental. So we were thinking like, dang, if you got to put 25% down every time you buy a property, how are you possibly ever going to be able to save up to buy the next one? It just seems like, seems you’re treading through concrete sometimes when it comes to these heavy down payments.
So we ended up doing some research and really it was more of an experimental thing. It was really hard to find any information on it, but basically there’s a couple different names for this style loan and all in one mortgage. It’s also referred to as an offset mortgage, and then it is also referred to as an interest only mortgage. And so basically what it is is kind of like a heloc, so a home equity line of credit where you can, instead of having to sell the property or refinance and do a cash out refi to get money out of the property that you have in it, you can actually have access to those funds and it’s just an interest only payment. So instead of a traditional mortgage every month that you’re paying principal interest, taxes, insurance, you’re just paying the interest. In theory, we could take money out of that account, use that for the down payment just like you would a heloc, and then you’re only paying interest on the balance of that loan.
It’s pretty common in some other countries and parts of the world. But it was really hard to find any articles or videos of people explaining what this is. And it is really powerful. And as you can imagine, the underwriting process on this type of loan is extensive much more so than a conventional or commercial loan from my experience. Because as you can imagine, it’s a lot of power to give someone to be able to access funds after closing. And it works just like a checking account essentially. And you even get a debit card in the mail, which is terrifying. But yeah, after closing, we basically got a letter in the mail with a debit card to that account, and it works like a checking account.

Ashley:
So basically it’s a clarify, this is a home equity line of credit where you have the line of credit. So right now for my two line of credits that I have, I email the bank, I send them a form saying, I’d like to request a draw. They put that money into whatever checking account. I want that money in with this all in one mortgage. What they’re doing is they’re giving you access to a line of credit with a checking account, and that money is sitting in the checking account then, and then you just use that debit card or you use a checkbook to actually write a check. And then you’re only paying interest on what you’ve used out of the checking account. Is that tracking

Kelsey:
Correct? You’re paying interest on the balance of that principle of that mortgage. So we put 25% down right away because we bought it as an investment. So 75% of that purchase price is what we’re paying interest on the loan, but the more money we pump into that, the lower our principle comes down, the less interest we’re paying, the more money we take out of that account, the greater our principle is on that loan, the more interest we’re paying. So it’s kind of like this give and take. So we always thought we would use this as an emergency fund situation where we don’t have the access to the funds in other ways, so let’s pull it out to buy this next property. We’ve actually used it more to pump money into because it’s saving us 4%, 6%, it’s a variable rate after the first three years.
So it’s saving us the more money we pump into this account, it is saving us in interest rather than just sitting in our checking account, not really doing anything for us. So we’ve actually done the opposite and we pump more money into it, but we do knowing that we have access to those funds if we need them. We don’t like to use the debit card a whole lot, but we have wired directly from this account to close on a property before. So we have kind of used it like we thought we would, but instead of taking more and more money out, we’ve actually been leaning more towards putting and more money in. To save us on that interest,

Ashley:
We have to take our final ad break, but when we come back, I want to hear the overall picture of what your cashflow is on these properties. We’re going to be right back after this. And if you’re watching on YouTube, make sure you are subscribed to the Real Estate Rookie YouTube channel, and if you’re listening on your favorite podcast app, make sure to leave us a reading and review. We’ll be right back. Okay. Welcome back from our break. We are here with Kelsey. So Kelsey, what does the overall cashflow look like on your properties today?

Kelsey:
So our portfolio so far, we average about $8,500 a month, and that is after all expenses, reserves, the mortgage, the full pity payment, the principal, the interest, the taxes, the insurance, everything said and done. We are at a point where our portfolio is cash flowing 8,500 on average. So now, because we do run short-term rentals out of a lot of these units and medium term rentals or midterm rentals, and sometimes we do shortterm rentals on some of these properties, we’re doing short-term rentals in the summertime, medium term rentals in the wintertime when the Airbnb market kind of dies down here in Des Moines. So you can imagine our pure cashflow varies from month to month, the winter months being a little less when we kind of pivot into that slightly less cash flowing midterm realm. And then it obviously shoots way up in the summer in the heat of the busy Airbnb market here in Des Moines in the summertime. So on average though, for the last three years, that is our net cashflow between our 10 doors. That’s awesome.

Ashley:
Congratulations.

Tony:
Yeah, over eight grand in cashflow with 10 doors is amazing. Now, we talked a little bit about you going into the kind of medium term rental, moving out of your own place, but you’ve also just got some truly dedicated short-term rentals, and you’ve got a unique take because you’ve been focusing on experience, which I think is a very important part of being successful as a host today. So how are you leveraging or creating kind of unique experiences for your guests?

Kelsey:
Yeah, so every time we furnish a new unit, we try to grasp onto some type of theme or vibe that differentiates this unit from our prior units because our buy box is very strict here in Des Moines. And we started noticing after the first two units that when you are really strict on your buy box and your neighborhood that you’re shopping for these properties in, you start competing with yourself. So not only are you competing with the growing STR boom here in Iowa, but you’re also competing with yourself and your own properties. And so we really wanted to cast a wide net in a way that each one has its own little vibe or theme, and that way we’re getting in front of as many eyes as possible, grasping as many eyes as possible, and as many tastes as possible. So we have a rustic industrial, very Iowa, welcome to Des Moines themed one.
We have the Taylor Swift themed Airbnb like you talked about. We’ve got a little cactus house, which is a western, almost coastal cowgirl theme that people love. And so we really just did that out of necessity to differentiate our own properties from one another, and it’s really been a strategy that works for us. And yeah, our Airbnb, that is Taylor Swift themed is definitely the one that people we get the most questions about because I was actually not a swifty going into this. I love music and of course some of her biggest hits over the years I’ve listened to and loved, but I would never have considered myself a swifty. But then I was trying to think, this was our sixth of eight furnished rentals, and I was kind of running out of ideas, and so I was thinking, what do a lot of people in the world love that is really unique?
And so I started doing research in other destinations on Airbnb and the theme, Taylor Swift kind of came up, and of course it’s in Nashville and in these bigger cities where people come for her concerts and stuff like that, those made more sense. But I was like, Hmm, I wonder if we could pull that off in Des Moines, Iowa. So I called up my fiance’s sister, who’s been a swifty her whole life, and my best friend who’s also a big swifty, and I was like, I need to schedule conference calls so that you can tell me everything you know about Taylor Swift, because I think we’re going to do this Airbnb and I need all the details. And they were like, okay. So I did legit conference calls with these two friends, and they told me everything they know about Taylor Swift, and then I started only listening to her music and God loved my fiance. I only allowed him to listen to Taylor Swift for the two months that we did all the research and furnishing of this unit. Then now we’re both, both listen to her music all the time. We really bought in. This was around the time she started seriously dating Travis Kelsey, and then they won the Super Bowl last year, and I couldn’t have paid for better amping up marketing to release a Taylor Swift Airbnb than if I would’ve paid Travis Kelsey to date her or something.

Ashley:
Well, you have to be a fan after she’s made you money in your Airbnb. How could you not?

Kelsey:
Yes, no, exactly. Now we are both very much caught the bug, and yeah, we do listen to other music too. Now, after we released it, I allowed us to open up our realm of music again. But yeah, we were all in, and that’s how I like to do things right. I don’t like to halfway do anything. I want to give 110% on everything I do. So that’s why I was like, I need to talk to the biggest swifties in the world that I know. I need to take all these notes. I need to really dive into this. And so we did actually style this unit in a way that if we, God forbid, have to transition it into a different theme than Taylor Swift if it doesn’t work, because again, this was a little experimental. I designed it in a way that we could fairly easily transition it away from that theme if we need to down the road. So that was a big strategy that I think gave us peace of mind going into such a niche theme.

Ashley:
Kelsey, thank you so much for joining us today on the Real Estate Rookie Podcast. Where can people reach out to you and find out more information about you?

Kelsey:
Honestly, the gram Instagram, that’s my favorite social media platform. It’s the easiest way probably to get ahold of me and my handle is at porta style reel estate. And yeah, I’m just so excited to have been here and to meet you guys. This has been such a pleasure.

Ashley:
Yes, thank you so much for joining us and taking the time to share your experience and your journey. We can’t wait to have you back in a couple years to hear who’s the next pop star themed Airbnb that you have going on. I’m Ashley, and he’s Tony. Thank you so much for joining us on this episode, a real estate rookie, and we’ll see you on the next one.

 

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The US economy is shrinking, with GDP declining this quarter. We’re getting closer to recession territory, so why aren’t mortgage rates dropping? We’ll explain how one crucial part of the economy is staying strong—keeping the Fed from cutting and delaying the typical rate-drop that comes with a recession. What’s stopping us from going back to sub-6% mortgage rates? We’ll break it down in this episode.

The economy is changing—fast. The US saw its GDP turn negative last quarter as many Americans braced for the impact of tariffs. But even with the overall economy lagging, labor data remains strong. Jobs are still being created, unemployment is relatively low, and Americans are going to work. This may be the single factor keeping the Fed in limbo, unable to cut rates any further. So, what happens if the labor market breaks?

Home builders were already anxious over the past year, and now they’re getting even more hesitant to build. With tariffs pushing up prices for materials, building (and buying) a house could get much more expensive. And with builders already dropping prices, could this lead to a broader decline in home prices across the nation?

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Read the Transcript Here

Dave:
The US economy shrank in the first quarter, but at the same time, the labor market is holding strong, but home builders are raising red flags today and on the market. We’re breaking down the most recent economic news and what it means for the real estate investing industry. Hey everyone, it’s Dave head of Real Estate Investing at BiggerPockets. This has been a week with a lot of interesting news and data, which as always means big implications for real estate investors. And while I would love to cover every news story, we don’t have time for that. So we’re gonna focus on three big stories you need to know about. The first story we’ll cover is that the economy contracted in the first quarter. The second thing is we’ve gotten a ton of labor data this week, which is probably the number one thing that’s gonna impact mortgage rates going forward.
So it’s something we all should be paying attention to. And lastly, we’ll talk about some interesting news from home builders that could spill into the broader housing market. Alright, first story, like I said, GDP, which is just a measure of the entire economic output for the country. It stands for gross domestic product. This shrank in the first quarter of 2025. A very modest decline of just 0.3%. But this matters, right? It really, it is unusual for the economy to shrink in any given quarter. No one really wants total economic output to go down. So anytime we see the GDP decline, it is worth noting. Talking about and trying to dig into a little bit, the most common reason people talk about GDP is just trying to determine whether or not we’re in a recession. And now, I know I’ve explained this several times on the show, but I’m gonna say it again, that in the US we have this very weird system about recessions.
There’s actually not any single objective measure of what’s a recession and what’s not. Recessions are actually in this country decided on afterward after they’re over by the National Bureau of Economic Research. And so the rest of us in real time are trying to figure out if we’re in a recession or not. It’s kind of hard, no one can do it officially, but a lot of people use this rule of thumb, which is two consecutive quarters of GDP declines. That is what most people consider a recession. And so we just had our first one, right? We just had in Q1, a single quarter of GDP decline. And so seeing this news rightfully brings up the question of whether we’re gonna see this rule of thumb definition of a recession takes place. And I’ve been saying this for a while, obviously no one knows, but I do think it is more likely than not that we are going to see this definition of recession to consecutive quarters of GDP decline.
And of course we’ll have to see what happens. But my general feeling is that if GDP declined before the Liberation Day tariffs and before the trade war really started to accelerate, it is likely to go down in Q2. Even Trump himself and a lot of his advisors have said there will be at the minimum short term economic pain as he implements this new trade policy, this new economic priorities that he has, and the pain that he’s describing could come in the form of lower GDP. That wouldn’t surprise me at all. In fact, I think that is probably the most likely outcome from what is going on right now. Now is this going to be called a recession by the National Bureau of Economic Research? Who knows? But it’s probably going to meet this common definition. But I actually encourage all of you, I say this to people all the time, I encourage people to think less about what it’s called because this word recession has lost almost all of its meaning.
I, I don’t really personally take too much stock on it because again, there’s only some subjective measure in it. People try and, you know, on both sides of the aisle politicize the idea of a recession. And I think what’s really important is instead to just focus on the actual things that are happening, the actual implications of conditions on the ground, right? Because whether or not they call it a recession doesn’t change the labor market, the labor market’s doing its own thing. Same thing with inflation, same thing with GDP. So what’s likely to happen with GDP declining? Well, I think that we are probably in the next couple of months gonna see business spending fall a little bit. You read the economic news like I do every day. You are all these businesses saying they’re scaling back on expansions. They’re sort of in wait and see mode to see where a lot of the tariffs come out.
And so that doesn’t necessarily mean this will be a long-term protracted, you know, decline in business spending, but we’re talking about whether or not GDP is gonna decline in Q2. I think there’s a lot of people saying, yeah, we’re spending less money in Q2 and that is a major driver of GDP. We also are hearing a lot of things about consumer spending falling that hasn’t materialized in the data yet. So just keep that in mind. But you hear these businesses like credit card companies and McDonald’s are coming out and saying consumer spending is down. And so we haven’t gotten that data for the last couple of months yet, but there are some lead indicators that suggest consumer spending could be down. But what happens with the labor market still up in the air? And that’s our second story, we’ll still get into that in just a minute, but my general opinion is if labor holds up, even if we go into a recession, and that is an if, I think it will be a mild one, right?
If people hold onto their jobs, they will get used to the new situation that we’re in and we’ll probably go through a short and mild recession. If the labor market quote unquote breaks, that’s could be a different, that could be a longer issue, especially if tariffs stay in place. Like I think the sort of the case for a bad recession is if the labor market really breaks and unemployment goes up and we still have a lot of restrictive trade policies through an aggressive trade war or heavy tariffs, both of those things are still up in the air. I’m just saying like what it would take in my mind to make a recession bad. Now normally I think what matters for real estate investors is that normally these types of things where we see lower GDP, the potential recession is going up that would spell lower interest rates.
That is normally what happens in a recession if a recession happens and inflation stays low. But rates haven’t really come down even with this news of GDP, we’ll get into that more in a minute. But I think the bond market is generally waiting to see if we have inflation because most economists believe that tariffs are gonna lead to inflation, but that’s gonna take a few months. This, this stuff lags. And so even if there is gonna be some inflationary impact, it might not hit in the data until May or June or even July. Uh, and so we’re just gonna have to see, and I think this is sort of a hint for where I think things are going. I think the Fed is probably waiting on that data too and we shouldn’t hold our breath for any sort of rate cuts in the short run.
Now before we move on to our next story and sort of dive into the labor market, which is the other critical piece on mortgage rates, I should just mention if you really wanna get nerdy about this, and you’re listening to this podcast, so I’m guessing you have some mild interest in this, is that there is something going on with what happened with GDP in the first quarter. And it might be a little bit distorted just with the way that GDP is calculated. Now people always say, oh, the government’s changing the way definitions happen. Sometimes that does happen. This is not like a change in the way GDP is calculated, it’s just kind of weird the way it’s calculated. Basically it measures a whole bunch of things. Consumption, which is just, you know how much consumers are spending on goods and services. We have business spending and investment, government spending and investment.
These all go into GDP, but there’s also this calculation that matters, which is exports minus imports. And so we don’t need to get into the math of it, but basically what can happen is if you have a lot of imports in a given quarter, it can make GDP look negative. And that’s exactly what happened in Q1 because people, it seems businesses and individual consumers we’re concerned that tariffs were gonna raise prices and so they imported a lot of stuff before prices went out and meanwhile exports stayed relatively flat. And so that makes GDP look negative. Does that mean our total economic output was bad? I don’t necessarily think so. I think this is sort of a reflection of what’s going on with GDP. Obviously this is the way it’s calculated and so you sort of need to, if you’re looking historically at GDP, this is the way it’s always calculated.
So I do think it’s worth noting that it went down in Q1 but also keep in mind that there are some extenuating circumstances that have made this happen and may not really be reflective of some inherent weakness in the economy. And I think that might be true because a lot of what Q1 was before the tariffs, I personally am much more interested in what happens in Q2 as we start see sort of the impact of the tariffs and the ongoing trade war that’s going on. All right, so that was our first story talking about the GDP decline. We do have to take a quick break, but when we come back we’re gonna dig into the labor market, the somewhat contradictory data we’re getting there and what it means for mortgage rates. We’ll be right back.
Welcome back to on the Market. I’m here reviewing three really big economic news stories, all of which that really are going to impact real estate investors. We talked about GDP and how normally the decline that we saw would lead to lower interest rates and lower bond yields or mortgage rates, but that’s not really happening. And one of the main reasons that’s not happening is what’s going on in the labor market, what’s going on with unemployment and all that. So just in the past week we’ve gotten a lot of jobs data and I think it’s an important narrative to keep in mind as we’re talking about GDP ’cause remember before I was kind of saying the word recession is sort of meaningless. GDP, that’s not like really something that most Americans feel like GDP matters. Sure, but mostly to economists because what normal American really notices GDP going up and down in their daily lives, right?
What matters are things like the labor market. Do you feel secure in your job? Are you and your loved ones gainfully employed? What’s going on with wages? What’s going on with inflation? This is the stuff that actually matters to most Americans and it’s why I encourage people to think less about the word recession and think more about these things and whether they’re going to impact you both on an individual and personal level or in your real estate investing. The other thing is that yes, GDP matters, but mortgage rates, which obviously matters to all of us real estate investors, are really impacted by the labor market. And I know it’s kind of a couple steps removed, but this is true because the Fed has repeatedly said that what they care about is inflation and the labor market. And so if the labor market is strong, then they’re less likely to lower rates until they see that inflation is really tamed.
If the labor market starts to break and there’s mass unemployment, they might take down rates even if inflation risk is still high. And so that’s why we need to pay attention to the labor market. Now what’s going on in the labor market is super confusing and it has been for several years now. We get a lot of conflicting data. There are tons of different ways to measure the labor market. None of them are perfect, but the way I look at it at least is I just try and look at all the measures and see what direction they’re heading. And you can sort of get a general sense of the strength of the labor market by looking at a couple different ones. I’m gonna talk about three today. But overall the feeling I have is that the labor market has been really resilient over the last couple of years despite higher interest rates.
I think it’s a real show of strength for the American economy. It is impressive to me that the labor market has stayed as strong as it has. Now this metrics that we’re talking about don’t show everything. There are areas of weakness. There are, you know, problems in certain sectors, but we got jobs data for April and the economy added 177,000 jobs. That is really pretty impressive. Unemployment’s at 4.2%, that might not make sense without context, it’s pretty low. Like it’s up from where it was a couple of months ago, a year or two ago. But 4.2% unemployment is still really, really good from a historical perspective. So biggest picture, look at the labor market doing pretty good. There were however, a couple other data points that are worth noting that point to maybe some weakness, but I wouldn’t get too concerned about it just yet.
There’s something called continuing unemployment claims. That’s just basically how many people are continuing to look for work and haven’t been able to find a job that’s up to 1.9 million higher than it’s been recently. Not by that much, it’s just one week of data. It’s not really something I would take into account just yet unless it becomes a trend. So the same thing happened with initial unemployment claims, which basically a measure of recent layoffs, people filing for unemployment insurance for the first time, that is also up this week. But nothing outta the ordinary when you look at these things together that like we’re not seeing any crazy breaks in the labor market just yet. This is just another reason I believe that the Fed is going to be pretty patient on rate hikes. They probably will still cut rates at some point this year, but I don’t think they’re going to be in any particular rush.
The reality is that the way the Fed thinks, and I’m not saying this is how I would think about it, maybe it is, but like the way they think is that right now they don’t need to cut rates. Their job, as we’ve talked about many times is to sort of balance these competing priorities of controlling inflation and maximizing employment. And if hiring is still going on, if they still feel that the labor market is strong, that means that they can focus their monetary policy more on the inflation picture. And inflation data has actually been quite encouraging recently it continues to go down, it’s still above that 2% target, but it’s in the two point a half percent range, which is pretty good considering where we were a couple of years ago. But most people expect that this lagging inflation data will come and will see an uptick in inflation from the trade war.
And so if I were putting myself in the fed’s shoes, given their mandate and what they’re responsible for, they’re probably thinking, okay, we think that inflation may go up in the next couple of months, but the labor market is still strong. So why don’t we just wait and see what is going to happen with inflation before making any decisions on monetary policy. Because the main reason we’d lower rates is to boost employment, but employment’s doing good so they don’t have to do it. So that’s sort of my take. Maybe they’ll cut rates the June meeting, I don’t know, but I think they are going to be relatively patient just given the data that we’ve seen in the last couple of weeks. And this is one of the reasons why I keep saying that rates will stay higher as, as you know, the Fed doesn’t control mortgage rates, but they do influence it in ways.
And I think the fact that they’re probably not gonna be super aggressive about rate cuts at this point in time, things could change second half of the year. But you know in Q2 I wouldn’t expect many rate cuts. Maybe there will be one, but I would be surprised if there’s anything lower than that. And I know that’s probably disappointing to people who are hoping for lower mortgage rates. I know everyone listening to this probably wants lower mortgage rates. I do too. But I think it’s important to remember that a strong labor market is good for the country. It is good for the economy. And personally I am never going to root for people to lose their jobs. I think rates will trend down even without the labor market breaking. And my hope is that we have a more gradual approach to rates coming down because the economy is still doing well.
Like that’s the best case scenario to me where we don’t go into a huge recession or we don’t have people lose a lot of jobs, but we still have some other forces like the spread going down and maybe some slowing growth, not full recession, but some slowing growth that pulls mortgage rates down. To me, that’s sort of the best possible blend of things. You might think differently. But I personally don’t want to see the labor market break. I think that could lead to a lot of economic pain that hopefully none of us have to go through. So I, I think we just need to sort of like circle back here for a minute about why I just think this word recession is kind of meaningless because we just had one quarter of GDP losses. I think it’s more likely than not that we’ll have a second quarter.
I could be wrong about that, but I think it’s more probable than not that we’ll have two in a row. Like does that matter to the average person if the labor market stays strong, if wages keep going up, which they have, if inflation stays low, like does it matter if we call it a recession if the labor market’s good inflation is low? I don’t think so, right? That’s the stuff that really matters to us. And just to be clear, I’m not saying that that’s the outcome that will arrive. I think the labor market’s really anyone’s guess. I think we will see some modest increases in inflation. But I’m just kind of trying to make the point not to dwell on this word recession. ’cause you’re gonna hear it a lot in the media right now. Do not dwell on it that much and think more about the actual conditions that matter to you, your family, your investing portfolio. All right, that is my rant about the word recession. I promise I will move on from this right after this break when we’re gonna talk about some interesting construction trends and news that we’re hearing from home builders that could spill over into the rest of the housing market. We’ll be right back.
Welcome back to On the Market. I’m here recapping some important economic news that will matter to real estate investors. We’ve talked about GDP declines, we’ve talked about resilience in the labor market. Now let’s talk about construction trends. ’cause this has been in the news a lot over the last couple of weeks and a few things have happened recently with builders. The main thing I actually track a lot is sentiment. And we’ll talk a little bit more about permit data, but builder sentiment actually matters a lot because this is a business that lags for a while. And so when builders aren’t feeling great about things, it usually means construction’s going to decline in the future. And so this is something in data analysis we call a lead indicator, right? It’s something that helps us predict what might happen in the future. And so builder sentiment is sort of a good lead indicator for what’s happening with construction, but also a lot of the rest of the housing market.
And so what we’re seeing right now is that builder confidence in the US housing market is low as of April. It did go up a little bit in April, but it’s still low. And I think that’s what actually matters. There’s this index basically that’s put out by the National Associate of Home Builders and Wells Fargo and 50 is the normal level that’s like neutral and it’s at a 40. So it’s not like they’re super, super negative but they’re not feeling particularly great about building conditions. And I think the more important thing is that this index has remained negative for a year now. And so I think these sort of ongoing negative sentiment coupled with what most economists are projecting to be higher construction costs because of the tariff situation might lead to declines in construction, which we’ll talk about the implications of in just a minute.
But I just wanted to share like why is builder sentiment low first when this survey asks why builders aren’t building as much or why they don’t feel good about it, the majority say because of tariffs and material costs, 60% of builders have reported that suppliers have already raised prices for building materials due to tariffs. So that happened really quickly. Real estate always tends to get hit first. And we’re seeing that right here. It’s not great, but this is kind of what happens. Average material costs are up about 6.3% already, which is a lot just in like a month or so. And that is estimated to add approximately $11,000 per new home built. So that really matters, especially in an environment where consumer sentiment is down because you know, if things were going great in the economy, maybe builders could pass that 11 grand off to consumers to home buyers, but that might not be possible.
So that is the main thing. Driving down sentiment. The other things that were mentioned were policy and economic uncertainty, labor and land shortages and of course mortgage rates as a result of these conditions, builders are increasingly having to turn to price cuts and to sales incentives or concessions, right? We’re seeing now basically 30% of builders cut prices in April, which is not that crazy a number, but it is, it is notable. And at the same time, the number of builders who had to offer these are things like buying rate downs or paying for some of your closing costs that ticked up from 59 to 61%. So nothing crazy in one month, but it does show continued deterioration of at least the new home market. And it’s important to remember here that the dynamics of the new home market and existing home sales are different, right?
If you are reselling a home, you know, you’ve lived in, it’s different than new home sales. They just have different business models, sellers who are selling their home, just think about this differently than the way builders do who have to move inventory and have cashflow problems. A lot of them are publicly traded companies that need to, you know, maintain earnings for their investors. So keep in mind that those things are different, but it is important to know that the new home sales market is really seeing some considerable weakness. So what does this all mean? Well, as of right now, we haven’t seen huge changes in construction. Data permits for building are actually up from February, but they’re about flat year over year. Housing starts are up a little bit year over year, but they’re down from February. So we don’t have a clear reading on what’s going on.
But the question to me is, will this spill over into the bigger market? Because as I said, new home sales, existing home sales, they’re kind of different. Normally in normal times, new home sales are only about 10, 12% of all home sales. So it’s like this kind of a smaller thing, but because there’s been such low existing home inventory, it makes up a bigger percentage now than it does. So the question is, is it going to impact the housing market? I think the answer is sort of yes. I think it’s going to continue to help contribute to softness in the overall housing market, right? If builders are lowering their price for new builds and consumers who are looking for homes and they’re, you know, we’re entering a buyer’s market. So buyers are gonna be able to be discerning if they have the option of buying a new home for the same price, in some cases actually cheaper than existing homes with concessions, they’re probably going to do that.
And so I do think this will, until this inventory issue with new homes get sorted out, it’s probably gonna spill over into the existing home markets depending on the market and the southeast. I think this is a lot of what we’re seeing. ’cause that’s where a lot of the construction has been over the last couple of years. Meanwhile, I think probably one of the main reasons why the Northeast and the Midwest still have strong housing markets right now is because there hasn’t been a lot of building there and it’s not really spilling over. So that’s, that’s one implication I think to keep in mind. The second thing is that a lot of what has happened in the housing market in really the last 15 years or so is impacted by what happened with construction after the 2008 crash. A lot of builders went outta business and we saw this huge lull in construction for years.
It took a decade basically for this to recover. And we are a long way from that. We’re not even close to that. But I am curious if tariffs stay, which is a big question, but if tariffs stay and permanently change the economics of building new homes, who knows what could happen? It could lead to sort of like a significant decline in construction. And I don’t want to be alarmist, that isn’t happening yet, but it’s on my mind, right? Because if you’re thinking about it, builders are already not feeling great and if rates stay high and their costs go up, that could really dissuade them from taking on new projects, which would be probably not great for the country long term. We need more construction, we need more units, but for people who own existing homes, it could contribute to less total supply and that would put a long term upward pressure on housing prices.
So just to be clear, I’m thinking short term, what’s happening is new home construction softening the market, but if builders stop building because of tariffs, and that’s a big but, but it’s something I think we should watch given what they’re saying in their earnings reports. Given what these sentiment, uh, surveys are saying, if we start to see a real pullback in construction that will alter the existing home market, it’s too early to call. I just wanted to mention that. So it’s something if you all are like me and like following the stuff, it’s another sort of like data point news story that you may wanna follow. That’s it for today, guys. Those are the three stories I wanted to share. GDP went down, but the labor market luckily is holding strong. Meanwhile, builder confidence is falling. All this is going to impact real estate investors for now.
I think these sort of like counterbalancing ideas that GDP went down, but the labor market is doing okay, is gonna keep rates relatively steady. Again, i I keep saying this, I don’t think rates are gonna fall. I wouldn’t hold my breath in the next couple of months. What happens towards the end, middle of the summer, end of the summer? That’s a different question, but I’m not expecting any big changes May or June and I personally am basing my own investing decisions around that. So that’s it. Thank you all so much for listening. We’ll see you next time.

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In This Episode We Cover

  • A worrying sign for the US economy and whether it could trigger lower mortgage rates
  • The one thing standing in the way of the Fed finally cutting rates again
  • Tariff effects on GDP and the first signs of what they could do to our economy
  • New labor market numbers and why jobs are being added as the economy shrinks
  • Are we in a recession? And does it even matter if we are?
  • And So Much More!

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