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Housing starts edged lower last month as average monthly mortgage rates increased a quarter-point from 6.18% to 6.43% between September and October, according to Freddie Mac.

Overall housing starts decreased 3.1% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.31 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

The October reading of 1.31 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts decreased 6.9% to a 970,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate. On a year-to-date basis, single-family construction is up 9.3%. The volatile multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, increased 9.6% to an annualized 341,000 pace but are down 29.3% on a year-to-date basis.

Although housing starts declined in October, builder sentiment improved for a third straight month in November as builders anticipate an improved regulatory environment in 2025 that will allow the industry to increase housing supply. Further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve through 2025 should result in lower interest rates for construction and development loans, helping to lead to a stabilization for apartment construction and expansion for single-family home building.

While multifamily starts increased in October, the number of apartments under construction is down to 821,000, the lowest count since March 2022 and down 18.9% from a year ago. In October, there were 1.8 apartments that completed construction for every one apartment that started construction. The three-month moving average reached a ratio of 2 in October.

There were 644,000 single-family homes under construction in October, down 3.6% from a year ago and down 22% from the peak count in the Spring of 2022.

On a regional and year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts are 10.4% higher in the Northeast, 1.7% lower in the Midwest, 5.0% lower in the South due to hurricane effects, and 4.4% lower in the West.

Overall permits decreased 0.6% to a 1.42 million unit annualized rate in October. Single-family permits increased 0.5% to a 968,000 unit rate and are up 9.4% on a year-to-date basis. Multifamily permits decreased 3.0% to an annualized 448,000 pace.

Looking at regional data on a year-to-date basis, permits are 0.9% higher in the Northeast, 3.9% higher in the Midwest, 2.4% lower in the South and 4.8% lower in the West.

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In October, mortgage rates reversed their recent downward trajectory, returning to levels two months earlier. According to Freddie Mac, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased 25 basis points (bps) from September to 6.18%. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage saw an even steeper increase of 34 bps to land at 5.60%.

These increases coincided with heightened volatility in the 10-year Treasury yield, which jumped 38 bps over the month, moving from 3.72% in September to 4.10%. This spike followed a weaker-than-expected labor report driven by the disruptions from two hurricanes, as well as the Boeing strike, and the 2024 election.

However, the largest part of the increase for interest rates is due to growing, post-election concerns over budget deficits. NAHB will be revising its interest rate outlook as the final election results are determined and the fiscal policy position comes into focus. Nonetheless, long-term interest rates have increased since September due to election developments.

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The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume by the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey, decreased 13.9% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis due to higher mortgage rates. This decline was reflected in both the Purchase and Refinance Indices, which fell by 4.4% and 23%, respectively. However, compared to October 2023, the Market Composite Index is up by 39%, with the Purchase Index seeing a slight 1.9% increase and the Refinance Index higher by 149.9%.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reversed its downward trajectory with an increase of 36 basis points (bps), following volatility in the ten-year Treasury yield. This brought the rate back to around the same level as it was in August at 6.53%. However, compared to its peak last October, the current rate is 125 bps lower.

The average loan size for the total market (including purchases and refinances) was $390,225 on a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis, a decrease of 2.6% from September. Purchase loans grew by 2.1% to an average of $448,675, while refinance loans declined by 11.3% to $323,750. Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) saw a modest decrease of 3.4% in average loan size from $1.19 million to $1.15 million.

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In September, mortgage rates maintained their downward trajectory, returning to levels last seen two years ago. According to Freddie Mac, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.18%, a decline of 32 basis points (bps) from August. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage saw an even steeper decline, decreasing by 42 bps from August to 5.26%. Additionally, the 10-year Treasury rate declined by 23 bps, falling from 3.98% in August to 3.75%.

According to the NAHB forecast, the 30-year mortgage rate is expected to near 6% on a sustained basis by the end of 2024, with a further decline to just below 6% during 2025. NAHB also predicts furthering easing by the Federal Reserve before the end of 2024.

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Existing home sales fell to a 10-month low in August despite easing mortgage rates and improved inventory, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Home sales remained sluggish as the lock-in effect kept home prices elevated. Meanwhile, the share of first-time buyer in August dropped to a record low. However, we expect increased activity in the coming months as mortgage rates continue to moderate. Improving inventory is likely to ease home price growth and enhance affordability.

Homeowners with lower mortgage rates have opted to stay put, avoiding trading existing mortgages for new ones with higher rates. This trend is driving home prices higher and holding back inventory. With the Federal Reserve beginning its easing cycle at the September meeting, mortgage rates are expected to gradually decrease, leading to increased demand and unlocking lock-in inventory in the coming quarters.

Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, fell 2.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.86 million in August, the lowest level since October 2023. On a year-over-year basis, sales were 4.2% lower than a year ago.

The first-time buyer share dropped to 26% in August, the lowest level since November 2021, down from 29% in both July and August 2023.

The existing home inventory level rose from 1.34 million in July to 1.35 million units in August and is up 22.7% from a year ago. At the current sales rate, August unsold inventory sits at a 4.2-months supply, up from 4.1-months last month and 3.3-months a year ago. This inventory level remains low compared to balanced market conditions (4.5 to 6 months’ supply) and illustrates the long-run need for more home construction. However, the count of single-family resale homes available for sale is up almost 21.4% on a year-over-year basis.

Homes stayed on the market for an average of 26 days in August, up from 24 days in July and 20 days in August 2023.

The August all-cash sales share was 26% of transactions, down from 27% in both July and a year ago. All-cash buyers are less affected by changes in interest rates.

The August median sales price of all existing homes was $416,700, up 3.1% from last year. This marked the 14th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. The median condominium/co-op price in August was up 3.5% from a year ago at $366,500. This rate of price growth will slow as inventory increases. Existing home sales in August were mixed across the four major regions. In the Northeast, South, and West, sales fell by 2.0%, 3.9%, and 2.7%, respectively, while sales in the Midwest remained unchanged. On a year-over-year basis, sales decreased in the Midwest (-5.2%), South (-6.0%) and West (-1.4%). Sales in the Northeast were unchanged from a year ago.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI fell from 74.3 to 70.2 in July due to persistent affordability challenges. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales were 8.5% lower than a year ago per National Association of Realtors data.

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Mortgage rates continued to decrease in August, landing at an average rate of 6.50%. According to Freddie Mac, the average monthly rate fell by 35 basis points (bps) from July’s rate of 6.85%. The August rate is down 57 bps from one year ago, which stood at 7.07%.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage also saw a decrease, dropping by 45 bps from July to 5.68%, and is now lower compared to last August by 75 bps. Additionally, the 10-year Treasury rate declined 30 bps from 4.28% in July to 3.98%.

Per the NAHB forecast, we expect 30-year mortgage rates to decline slightly to around 6.66% at the end of 2024 and eventually to decline to just under 6% by the end of 2025. The NAHB outlook anticipates the federal funds rate to be cut by 25 bps no later than the December Federal Reserve meeting, although it is possible for the Fed to cut rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting in September.

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The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume by the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey, saw a month-over-month increase of 10.7% on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis. Compared to last August, the index increased by 20.8%. While the Purchase Index declined by 2.9%, month-over-month, the Refinance Index jumped 30.8% as borrowers took advantage of the declining mortgage rates to refinance higher-rate loans. On a yearly basis, the Purchase Index is down by 8.6%, while the Refinance Index increased by 87.2%.

The average monthly 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fallen for four straight months with August seeing the largest decrease of 40 basis points (bps), bringing the rate to 6.49%. The current rate is 73 bps lower than last August.

The average loan size for the total market (including purchases and refinances) is up 3.6% from July to $380,800 on a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis. Similarly, the month-over-month change for purchase loans increased 0.6% to an average size of $426,600, while refinance loans rose by 18.5% to an average of $325,800. The average loan size for an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) also saw a steep increase of 9.5% for the same period, from $1.01 million to $1.1 million.

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The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume by the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey, saw a slight month-over-month decline of 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis; compared to July 2023, the index increased by 0.5%. The Purchase Index declined by 4.8%, while the Refinance Index increased by 5.8%, month-over-month. On a yearly basis, the Purchase Index decreased by 13.9%, while the Refinance Index increased by 33.9%.

Meanwhile, the average monthly 30-year fixed mortgage rate continued to decline for three straight months with July seeing the largest decrease of 10 basis points (bps) to land an at 6.88% in July. The current rate is also lower than last July by 6 bps.

The average loan size for the total market (including purchases and refinances) is down by 1.5% from June to $367,900 on a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis in July. Similarly, the month-over-month change for purchase loans decreased 1.6% to an average size of $424,200, while refinance loans increased by 2.5% to an average of $275,325. The average loan size for an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) decreased by 2.5% for the same period, from $1.03 million to $1.01 million.

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Mortgage rates continued to decrease in July, landing at an average rate of 6.85%. According to Freddie Mac, the average monthly rate fell by 7 basis points (bps) from June’s rate of 6.92%. This current rate is nearly identical to the rate from one year ago, which stood at 6.84%.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage also saw a decrease, dropping by 5 bps from June to 6.14%, and is now lower compared to last July by 4 bps. Additionally, the 10-year Treasury rate declined 9 bps from 4.37% in June to 4.28%.

Per the NAHB forecast, we expect 30-year mortgage rates to decline slightly to around 6.66% at the end of 2024 and eventually to decline to just under 6% by the end of 2025. The NAHB outlook anticipates the federal funds rate to be cut by 25 bps no later than the December Federal Reserve meeting and six more rate cuts in 2025 as inflation approaches the Fed’s policy target.

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Since the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) in 2017, tax returns that itemize Schedule A deductions, such as the mortgage interest deduction (MID) , have fallen significantly with only 9.6% of all returns using an itemized deduction in tax year 2021. In 2017, the share of returns claiming an itemized deduction was 30.9%. Taxpayers who do not itemize their tax returns claim the standard deduction instead, and thus do not directly benefit from deductions such as the MID.

Looking across different adjusted gross income — or AGI, which is a measure of total income minus adjustments, such as deductions — levels , the prevalence of itemizing has fallen for all AGI levels. In 2017, five AGI levels had over half of tax returns claiming an itemized deduction. In contrast, in 2021 (the latest published IRS Statistics of Income data) only the two highest AGI levels had over half of returns claiming an itemize deduction.

The TCJA significantly increased the standard deduction and placed a limit of $10,000 on the state and local income tax (SALT) deduction . These two factors contributed to the trend of fewer itemized returns since 2017. Moreover, these changes explain why the use of the mortgage interest deduction has grown less progressive since 2017. Namely, the mortgage interest deduction can only be claimed through itemizing. So fewer itemizing taxpayers has led to fewer home owners utilizing the mortgage interest deduction, particularly at lower AGI levels.

Standard Deduction vs. Itemized Deduction

The total number of returns filed in 2021 was 159.5 million, while the number of returns with itemized deductions stood at just 14.8 million returns. These returns totaled an estimated $659.7 billion in itemized deductions. The total amount of the standard deduction claimed stood at an estimated $2.5 trillion in 2021 — well above the itemization amount, as significantly more taxpayers utilized the standard deduction.

Depicted in the graph above, there is a distinctive difference between the share of returns in a particular AGI level and its proportion of the total adjusted gross income. Levels below $100,000 constitute 77.2% of all returns, but only make up 30.9% of the total adjusted gross income. Levels above $100,000 constitute 22.8% of all returns while making up 69.1% of the total adjusted gross income.

Among returns that utilized the itemized deduction, most fell in the $100,000-$200,000 AGI class, with 30.4% claiming itemized returns. Despite this, the $1 million AGI level make up 29.6% of the total itemization deduction amount — the highest level of deduction amounts — but only constituted 4.1% of itemized returns.

In contrast to the itemized tax returns, most tax returns claiming the standard deductions were in the lower AGI range between $1-100,000 (75.3%). This AGI range also received the highest share of the total standard deduction amount (75.4%). The standard deduction return distribution follows more closely to that of all returns when compared to itemized returns as far fewer taxpayers utilize itemized deductions and those who do tend to be in higher income groups.

Mortgage Interest Deduction

After the passage of the 16th amendment, the first income tax code written by Congress allowed for the deduction of interest paid on many debts ranging from business to personal debts, including mortgages. The mortgage interest deduction notably expanded following World War II. Homeownership became an important wealth building tool for a vast majority of Americans during this period.

The current principal limit of the mortgage interest deduction stands at $750,000 ($375,000 if married filing separately), meaning taxpayers can deduct interest on the first $750,000 of debt secured by the taxpayer’s main home or second home . Interest on home equity loans and lines of credit are deductible only if the funds are used to buy, build or substantially improve a taxpayer’s home up to a $100,000 limit.

After the expiration of the 2017 tax rules in 2025, the mortgage interest deduction will return to prior law, in which the principal limit was $1 million, and home owners will be allowed to deduct interest on the first $100,000 of home equity debt regardless of the purpose of the debt. (However, AMT rules complicate this general rule somewhat.) It is important to note that the current principal limit is not indexed for inflation, which is a policy shortcoming given the post-COVID rise in home prices.

Among tax returns that were itemized in 2021, 11.5 million (76.6%) claimed the mortgage interest deduction. The total amount of mortgage interest deducted was $143.5 billion, which includes points. (If debt predates 2017, deduction is allowed for points) According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, total mortgage interest paid in 2021 — deducted and non-deducted together — was $458.2 billion , which amounts to around 31.3% of total mortgage interest payments claimed as a tax deduction in 2021.

Across income groups, the group with the highest mortgage interest deduction  amount was for incomes between $100,000-$200,000 at a 28.9% share of the total. The $200,000-$500,000 income group deducted the second largest share at 27.9%. Nonetheless, the vast majority (84.9%) of mortgage interest deducted was from itemizers with incomes under $500,000.

Given that it is much more likely for itemizers to be from higher income groups, specifically AGI levels greater than $500,000, it is perhaps surprising that most of the mortgage interest deduction claimed accrued to individuals making less than $500,000 as these taxpayers typically use itemized deductions less frequently.

Proposal to Expand the Mortgage Tax Benefit: A Tax Credit

In 2021, there were an estimated 83.4 million owner-occupied housing units with 51.1 million holding a mortgage. A housing tax credit would allow vastly more households to receive a tax benefit from owning a home than, as only approximately 11 million currently do by deducting mortgage interest on their tax returns.

With fewer taxpayers itemizing, what was once an effective and broadly claimed tax incentive no longer serves its original purpose to make homeownership more affordable for the middle-class. NAHB believes the mortgage interest deduction should be updated to reflect today’s tax code and better serve the segment of prospective home owners who face unprecedented affordability challenges. A well-structured housing tax incentive, such as a mortgage interest credit, would help achieve this policy goal.

NAHB supports converting the mortgage interest deduction into a targeted, ongoing homeownership tax credit, which could be claimed against mortgage interest and property taxes paid. A tax credit that is properly targeted would increase progressivity in the tax code and promote housing opportunity by providing a tax incentive more accessible to lower and middle-class households, as well minority and first-generation home buyers. Such a credit would provide a benefit to all home owners who pay mortgage interest and have income tax liability to offset. Such a proposal should be considered today and given serious consideration during the 2025 tax debate.

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