Latest Posts:
Tag

Job

Browsing
In Research & Trends

Construction Job Openings Fall in September

No Comments


After a period of slowing associated with declines for some elements of residential construction, the count of open construction sector jobs trended lower in the September data, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The data indicates the demand for construction labor market remains weaker than a year ago.

In September, after revisions, the number of open jobs for the overall economy declined from 7.86 million to 7.44 million. This is notably smaller than the 9.31 million estimate reported a year ago and a clear sign of a softening aggregate labor market. Previous NAHB analysis indicated that this number had to fall below 8 million on a sustained basis for the Federal Reserve to feel more comfortable about labor market conditions and their potential impacts on inflation. With estimates now remaining near 8 million for national job openings, the Fed has begun a credit easing cycle should continue lowering rates.

The number of open construction sector jobs fell from a revised 328,000 in August to a softer 288,000 in September. Elements of the construction sector slowed in prior months as tight Fed policy persisted. The September reading of opening, unfilled construction jobs is lower than that registered a year ago: 422,000.

The construction job openings rate fell back to 3.4% in September and continues to trend lower.

The layoff rate in construction edged higher to 2.1% in September after a 2% rate in August. The quits rate in construction decreased to just 1.4% in September as job churn slowed.

Discover more from Eye On Housing

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Strong Job Market in September

No Comments


The September jobs report indicates that the U.S. labor market remains strong. Job growth accelerated, and the unemployment rate fell to a three-month low of 4.1%.  Meanwhile, job growth for the previous two months (July and August) was upwardly revised.

In September, wage growth accelerated for the second straight month. Wages grew at a 4.0% year-over-year (YOY) growth rate in September, down 0.5 percentage points from a year ago. Wage growth is outpacing inflation, which typically occurs as productivity increases.

National Employment

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 254,000 in September, following an upwardly revised increase of 159,000 jobs in August, as reported in the Employment Situation Summary. It marks the largest monthly job gain in the past six months. The estimates for the previous two months were revised higher. The monthly change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 55,000, from +89,000 to +144,000, while the change for August was revised up by 17,000 from +142,000 to +159,000. Combined, the revisions were 72,000 higher than previously reported.

In the first nine months of 2024, 1,801,000 jobs were created. Additionally, monthly employment growth averaged 200,000 per month, compared with the 251,000 monthly average gain for 2023. The Fed’s easing cycle began on September 18, marking the end of a period of restrictive monetary policy. The U.S. economy has created roughly 8 million jobs since March 2022, when the Fed enacted the first interest rate hike of this cycle.

The unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.1% in September, from 4.2% in August. The September decrease in the unemployment rate reflected the decrease in the number of persons unemployed (-281,000) and the increase in the number of persons employed (+430,000).

Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate—the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already holding a job—was 62.7% for the third consecutive month. However, for people aged between 25 and 54, the participation rate dipped slightly to 83.8%. This rate exceeds the pre-pandemic level of 83.1%. Meanwhile, the overall labor force participation rate is still below its pre-pandemic levels when it stood at 63.3% at the beginning of 2020.

In September, employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places (+69,000), health care (+45,000), government (+31,000), social assistance (+27,000), and construction (+25,000).

Construction Employment

Job gains in the overall construction sector continued in September, averaging 20,000 per month over the past 12 months. While residential construction gained 7,800 jobs, non-residential construction employment added 17,900 jobs for the month.

Residential construction employment now stands at 3.4 million in September, broken down as 952,000 builders and 2.4 million residential specialty trade contractors. The 6-month moving average of job gains for residential construction was 3,450 a month. Over the last 12 months, home builders and remodelers added 60,500 jobs on a net basis. Since the low point following the Great Recession, residential construction has gained 1,393,800 positions.

In September, the unemployment rate for construction workers rose to 4.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unemployment rate for construction workers has remained at a relatively lower level, after reaching 15.3% in April 2020 due to the housing demand impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Discover more from Eye On Housing

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Rebound for Construction Job Openings

No Comments


After a period of slowing associated with declines for some elements of residential construction, the count of open construction sector jobs bounced back in the August data, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). However, construction job openings remain slightly lower compared to a year ago.

In August, after revisions, the number of open jobs for the overall economy increased slightly from 7.71 million to 8.04 million. This is notably smaller than the 9.36 million estimate reported a year ago, but the monthly gain is a sign of a somewhat resilient labor market. Previous NAHB analysis indicated that this number had to fall below 8 million on a sustained basis for the Federal Reserve to feel more comfortable about labor market conditions and their potential impacts on inflation. With estimates now remaining near 8 million for national job openings, the Fed has begun a credit easing cycle.

The number of open construction sector jobs rebounded from a revised, soft reading of 232,000 in July to 370,000 in August. Elements of the construction sector slowed in prior months as tight Fed policy persisted. However, with the August rebound for open construction sector jobs, the number of job openings is roughly flat compared to the year-prior estimate of 386,000 in August 2023.

The construction job openings rate also increased, rising to 4.3% in August after several months of weaker readings.

The layoff rate in construction increased to 2.0% in August after a 1.9% rate in July. The quits rate in construction decreased slightly to 2.1% in August from 2.2% in July.

Discover more from Eye On Housing

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Consumer Confidence Dips Amid Job Market Concerns

No Comments


Consumer confidence fell to a 3-month low in September due to growing concerns about the job market, despite the labor market remaining healthy. Recent job growth revisions showed fewer jobs were added in 2023 than initially reported. However, the unemployment rate remained at a relatively low level and wage growth continued to outpace inflation. This suggests the labor market is cooling from its red-hot pace but remains steady. 

The Consumer Confidence Index, reported by the Conference Board, is a survey measuring how optimistic or pessimistic consumers feel about their financial situation. This index fell from 105.6 to 98.7 in September, the largest monthly decline since August 2021. The Consumer Confidence Index consists of two components: how consumers feel about their present situation and about their expected situation. The Present Situation Index decreased 10.3 points from 134.6 to 124.3, and the Expectation Situation Index fell 4.6 points from 86.3 to 81.7, but still remained above the 80 threshold. Historically, an Expectation Index reading below 80 often signals a recession within a year.

Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions turned negative in September. The share of respondents rating business conditions “good” decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 18.8%, while those claiming business conditions as “bad” rose by 2.9 percentage points to 20.2%. Consumers’ assessments of the labor market worsened as well. The share of respondents reporting that jobs were “plentiful” decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 30.9%, while those who saw jobs as “hard to get” increased by 1.5 percentage points to 18.3%.

Consumers were also less optimistic about the short-term outlook. The share of respondents expecting business conditions to improve fell from 19.1% to 18.5%, while those expecting business conditions to deteriorate rose from 14.5% to 16.6%. Similarly, expectations of employment over the next six months were less positive. The share of respondents expecting “more jobs” increased by 0.1 percentage points to 16.4%, and those anticipating “fewer jobs” climbed by 1.3 percentage points to 18.3%.

The Conference Board also reported the share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months. The share of respondents planning to buy a home rose to 5.7% in September. Of those, respondents planning to buy a newly constructed home increased slightly to 0.7%, while those planning to buy an existing home decreased to 2.4%.

Discover more from Eye On Housing

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

August Job Gain Led by Construction

No Comments


Today’s jobs report and the newly released preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicate that the U.S. labor market is slowing from its overheated state in 2021 and 2022 but remains stable. Among all sectors, construction led the August job gains, adding 34,000 jobs to payrolls.

Additionally, wage growth accelerated in August. Wages grew at a 3.8% year-over-year (YOY) growth rate, down 0.7 percentage points from a year ago. Wage growth is outpacing inflation, which typically occurs as productivity increases.

National Employment

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, following a downwardly revised increase of 89,000 jobs in July, as reported in the Employment Situation Summary. The estimates for the previous two months were revised lower. The monthly change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down by 61,000, from +179,000 to +118,000, while the change for July was revised down by 25,000 from +114,000 to +89,000. Combined, the revisions were 86,000 lower than the original estimates.

Despite restrictive monetary policy, about 7.9 million jobs have been created since March 2022, when the Fed enacted the first interest rate hike of this cycle. In the first eight months of 2024, 1,475,000 jobs were created. Additionally, monthly employment growth averaged 184,000 per month, compared with the 251,000 monthly average gain for 2023.

In August, the unemployment rate eased slightly to 4.2%, from 4.3% in July. The August decrease in the unemployment rate reflected the decrease in the number of persons unemployed (-48,000) and the increase in the number of persons employed (+168,000).

Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate—the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already holding a job—remained at 62.7%. However, for people aged between 25 and 54, the participation rate dipped slightly to 83.9%. This rate exceeds the pre-pandemic level of 83.1%. Meanwhile, the overall labor force participation rate is still below its pre-pandemic levels when it stood at 63.3% at the beginning of 2020.

For industry sectors, construction (+34,000), health care (+31,000), and social assistance (+13,000) had job gains in August, while manufacturing lost 24,000 jobs. Employment in other major industries showed little change over the month.

Construction Employment

Employment in the overall construction sector in August (+34,000) experienced an increase, from the 13,000 job gains in July. While residential construction gained 5,600 jobs, non-residential construction employment added 28,300 jobs for the month.

Residential construction employment now stands at 3.4 million in August, broken down as 951,000 builders and 2.4 million residential specialty trade contractors. The 6-month moving average of job gains for residential construction was 5,667 a month. Over the last 12 months, home builders and remodelers added 63,100 jobs on a net basis. Since the low point following the Great Recession, residential construction has gained 1,385,000 positions.

In August, the unemployment rate for construction workers declined to 3.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unemployment rate for construction workers has remained at a relatively lower level, after reaching 15.3% in April 2020, due to the housing demand impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Discover more from Eye On Housing

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
Pin It