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Higher Mortgage Interest Rates Slow Housing Production in October

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Housing starts edged lower last month as average monthly mortgage rates increased a quarter-point from 6.18% to 6.43% between September and October, according to Freddie Mac.

Overall housing starts decreased 3.1% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.31 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

The October reading of 1.31 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts decreased 6.9% to a 970,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate. On a year-to-date basis, single-family construction is up 9.3%. The volatile multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, increased 9.6% to an annualized 341,000 pace but are down 29.3% on a year-to-date basis.

Although housing starts declined in October, builder sentiment improved for a third straight month in November as builders anticipate an improved regulatory environment in 2025 that will allow the industry to increase housing supply. Further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve through 2025 should result in lower interest rates for construction and development loans, helping to lead to a stabilization for apartment construction and expansion for single-family home building.

While multifamily starts increased in October, the number of apartments under construction is down to 821,000, the lowest count since March 2022 and down 18.9% from a year ago. In October, there were 1.8 apartments that completed construction for every one apartment that started construction. The three-month moving average reached a ratio of 2 in October.

There were 644,000 single-family homes under construction in October, down 3.6% from a year ago and down 22% from the peak count in the Spring of 2022.

On a regional and year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts are 10.4% higher in the Northeast, 1.7% lower in the Midwest, 5.0% lower in the South due to hurricane effects, and 4.4% lower in the West.

Overall permits decreased 0.6% to a 1.42 million unit annualized rate in October. Single-family permits increased 0.5% to a 968,000 unit rate and are up 9.4% on a year-to-date basis. Multifamily permits decreased 3.0% to an annualized 448,000 pace.

Looking at regional data on a year-to-date basis, permits are 0.9% higher in the Northeast, 3.9% higher in the Midwest, 2.4% lower in the South and 4.8% lower in the West.

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Housing Costs Continue to Drive Inflation

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Inflation picked up again in October, showing the last mile to the 2% target will be the hardest. Shelter costs remained the main driver of inflation, accounting for over 65% of the 12-month increase in the all items less food and energy index. However, the year-over-year change in the shelter index has been below 5% for the second consecutive month, signaling some moderation in housing inflation.

While the Fed’s interest rate cuts could help ease some pressure on the housing market, its ability to address rising housing costs is limited, as these increases are driven by a lack of affordable supply and increasing development costs. In fact, tight monetary policy hurts housing supply because it increases the cost of AD&C financing. This can be seen on the graph below, as shelter costs continue to rise at an elevated pace despite Fed policy tightening. Additional housing supply is the primary solution to tame housing inflation.

Furthermore, the 2024 election result has put inflation back in the spotlight and added some downside risks to the economic outlook. Proposed tax cuts and tariffs could increase inflationary pressures, suggesting a more gradual easing cycle with a slightly higher terminal federal funds rate. Given the housing market’s sensitivity to interest rates, this could extend affordability crisis and constrain housing supply as builders continue to grapple with lingering supply chain challenges.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase seen over the previous three months. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the “core” CPI increased by 0.3% in October, the same increase as in August and September.

The price index for a broad set of energy sources remained unchanged in October, with declines in gasoline (-0.9%) and fuel oil (-4.6%) offset by increases in electricity (+1.2%) and natural gas (+0.3%). Meanwhile, the food index rose 0.2%, after a 0.4% increase in September. The index for food away from home increased by 0.2% and the index for food at home rose by 0.1%.

The index for shelter (+0.4%) was the largest contributor to the monthly increase in all items index, accounting for over 50% of the total increase. Other top contributors that rose in October include indexes for used cars and trucks (+2.7%), airline fares (+3.2%), medical care (+0.3%) and recreation (+0.4%). Meanwhile, the top contributors that experienced a decline include indexes for apparel (-1.5%), communication (-0.6%) and household furnishings and operations (-0.1%).

The index for shelter makes up more than 40% of the “core” CPI. The index saw a 0.4% rise in October, following an increase of 0.2% in September. The indexes for owners’ equivalent rent (OER) and rent of primary residence (RPR) increased by 0.4% and 0.3% over the month. These gains have been the largest contributors to headline inflation in recent months. 

During the past twelve months, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI rose by 2.6% in October, following a 2.4% increase in September. The “core” CPI increased by 3.3% over the past twelve months, the same increase as in September. The food index rose by 2.1%, while the energy index fell by 4.9%.

NAHB constructs a “real” rent index to indicate whether inflation in rents is faster or slower than overall inflation. It provides insight into the supply and demand conditions for rental housing. When inflation in rents is rising faster than overall inflation, the real rent index rises and vice versa. The real rent index is calculated by dividing the price index for rent by the core CPI (to exclude the volatile food and energy components).

In October, the Real Rent Index remained unchanged for the second consecutive month. Over the first ten months of 2024, the monthly growth rate of the Real Rent Index averaged 0.1%, slower than the average of 0.2% in 2023.

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Student Housing Construction Investment Rises in the Third Quarter of 2024

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Private fixed investment in student dormitories increased by 2.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of $3.9 billion in the third quarter of 2024. This rise follows a 7% decrease in the prior quarter. However, private fixed investment in dorms was 1.8% lower than a year ago, as the elevated interest rates place a damper on student housing construction.  

Private fixed investment in student housing experienced a surge after the Great Recession, as college enrollment increased from 17.2 million in 2006 to 20.4 million in 2011. However, during the pandemic, private fixed investment in student housing declined drastically from $4.4 billion (SAAR) in the last quarter of 2019 to a lower annual pace of $3 billion in the second quarter of 2021, as COVID-19 interrupted normal on-campus learning. According to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, college enrollment fell by 3.6% in the fall of 2020 and by 3.1% in the fall of 2021.  

Since then, private fixed investment has rebounded, as college enrollments show a slow but stabilizing recovery from pandemic driven declines. Effective in-person learning requires college students to return to campuses, boosting the student housing sector. Furthermore, the demand for student housing is growing robustly, because total enrollment in postsecondary institutions is projected to increase 8% from 2020 to 2030, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. 

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Multifamily Housing: Distribution, Building Size, and Gross Rent Across Congressional

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Approximately 27% of the national housing stock consists of multifamily homes—defined as residential buildings with multiple separate housing units within one structure. According to the 2023 American Community Survey 1-year estimates, these units range from small duplexes, triplexes, and quadplexes (2 to 4 units) to medium-sized buildings (5 to 49 units) and large complexes (50 or more units).

While most congressional districts have multifamily housing shares between 10% to 20% of total housing units, this proportion varies widely, from as low as 8% to as high as 98%. The map below illustrates the distribution of multifamily housing stock across congressional districts with larger shares indicated by bigger bubble size. This visualization shows that districts with the largest share of multifamily units are, unsurprisingly, concentrated in densely populated urban areas.

New York leads in this regard, with its 12th and 13th Districts – both encompassing upper and midtown Manhattan – having almost exclusively multifamily units at 98% each. In fact, eight out of the top 10 districts with the largest share of multifamily housing are in New York. Other areas with large shares include New Jersey’s 8th District, also within the New York metropolitan area, and Massachusetts’s 7th District that includes Boston. At the lower end of the distribution, North Carolina’s 8th District has only 8% multifamily units, while Michigan’s 2nd and 9th Districts, Arizona’s 9th District, and Florida’s 12th District all have around 9% multifamily units.

Building Sizes in Multifamily Units

In most congressional districts, multifamily units tend to be on the smaller side, with the majority consisting of buildings with 5 to 19 units, followed by those with 2 to 4 units. Duplexes, triplexes, and quadplexes (2 to 4 units) are especially common in the Northeast, various Mountain states, and parts of California. Apart from Illinois’s 4th District, which has the highest share of small multifamily units (70%), the remaining top five districts with the largest shares of 2 to 4 unit buildings are all in New York, each exceeding 60%.

Buildings with 5 to 19 units are more prevalent across the South and Midwest, with Maryland’s 2nd, 3rd and 4th Districts owning majority shares of this building type with 59%, 62% and 61%, respectively. High-density areas like New York’s 12th District, Florida’s 27th District – located within Miami-Dade County – and Washington, D.C. (at large), tend to have the largest multifamily (50 or more) buildings. North Dakota (at large) and Minnesota’s 6th District stand out as the only two congressional districts where the majority of multifamily buildings have between 20 to 49 multifamily units.

Gross Median Rent and Renter Cost Burden

Multifamily units are predominantly rented rather than owned, with 86% being occupied by renters. This trend holds across all multifamily types, with larger buildings generally more likely to be rental properties, while condominiums (owner-occupied units) are often smaller buildings. A Fannie Mae study on the multifamily market found that larger properties typically command higher monthly rents, especially in major metropolitan areas. The chart below corroborates this, showing that districts with higher shares of large multifamily buildings (50 or more units) also have higher median monthly rents (including utilities and fuel). However, lower median rents don’t always equate to more affordability, as even low-rent areas can have high renter cost burdens due to lower income levels. For example, New York’s 12th District has the highest median rent at $3,121, with 43% of renters burdened (spending over 30% of income on housing costs), a rate matched by Kentucky’s 5th District, where the median rent is only $727. Overall, despite rent prices moderating (see Real Rent Index), rental cost burdens remain high across the country, with only 23 of 436 congressional districts (including D.C.) having fewer than 40% of renter households burdened by housing costs.

Additional housing data for your congressional district are provided by the US Census Bureau here.

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Owner-Occupied Single-Family Housing Units Across Congressional Districts

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With elevated interest rates and rising home prices, 103.5 million households in the United States cannot afford a $495,750 median-priced new home. The growing affordability crisis makes housing a top issue for voters in the 2024 presidential election. Both presidential candidates have offered housing policy proposals to address our nation’s housing supply and affordability challenges.

Homeownership has been a crucial part of the American Dream for over a century as owning a home not only provides households with a stable place to live, but also offers an opportunity for households to accumulate assets and build wealth over time through equity.

A recent NAHB study on home buyer preferences revealed that a single-family detached home remained the top purchase preference for two out of every three buyers. In reality, only 54% of the total housing units in 2023 were owner-occupied single-family detached homes, according to NAHB analysis of American Community Survey (ACS) data. This equates to around 70 million homes of the total 131 million housing units.

In addition, a recent article in the Washington Post stated that “the new American Dream should be a townhouse (using the term of single-family attached homes in this post).” The article argues that townhouses are more affordable, need less maintenance, and foster a sense of community. Additionally, townhomes in medium-density residential neighborhoods can be a good option for younger home buyers. However, owner-occupied single-family attached homes only accounted for 4% of the total occupied housing units in 2023.

Single-Family Detached Homes Across Congressional Districts

Across congressional districts, the share of single-family detached homes among all owner-occupied housing units varies substantially, ranging from 3% to 95%.

Texas has a high share of owner-occupied single-family homes. Texas’s 20th congressional district has the highest share of single-family detached homes. All congressional districts in Texas have at least an 83% share of single-family detached homes. Four districts in Texas, two in Indiana and Nebraska, one in Iowa, and one in California report the top ten highest share of single-family detached homes.

At the bottom of the ranking, congressional districts in New York and Pennsylvania are on the list of the ten lowest shares of single-family detached homes. New York’s 12th, 13th, and 10th, where renter-occupied housing units exceed owner-occupied ones, have the lowest share with 3%, 4%, and 5%, respectively. In addition to a lower share of single-family detached homes, New York’s 12th and 13th have a low share of single-family attached homes, with 2% for both districts. In the District of Columbia, at-large, 22% of owner-occupied single-family housing units are detached, ranked as the 12th lowest share.

Despite the geographic variation, single-family detached homes dominate most of the owner-occupied housing markets. Out of all 436 congressional districts, only 18 congressional districts have a lower share of single-family detached homes than the national level of 54%.

Single-Family Attached Homes Across Congressional Districts

Although single-family attached homes are not as popular as single-family detached homes in the owner-occupied housing market, the share of single-family attached homes shows substantial variation across congressional districts, ranging from 0% to 78%.

Pennsylvania’s 3rd congressional district has about 78% single-family attached homes, followed by Pennsylvania’s 2nd district with 75% single-family attached homes, and Maryland’s 7th district with 57%. The District of Columbia, at-large, with only 22% single-family detached homes, was ranked as the fourth highest share of single-family attached homes (43%).

Single-family attached homes have become popular as more home buyers are looking for “medium-density residential neighborhoods, such as urban villages that offer walkable environments and other amenities”, as mentioned in an NAHB blog post.

Median Home Value

The median value of owner-occupied housing units in the United States is $340,200, though it varies significantly across congressional districts depending on local housing supply and demand, property size, neighborhood, and overall economic factors. Coastal areas often have significantly higher median home values than rural regions.

Analysis of the 2023 ACS data shows that of the 14 congressional districts where median house value exceeds one million, 12 of them are in California. California’s 16th congressional district has the highest median home value of $1,820,400 among all congressional districts, with 81% of 159,895 owner-occupied housing units valuing more than one million dollars.

New York’s 12th and 10th congressional districts, with only 3% and 5% single-family detached homes, are the other two districts where median home value is over one million.

Additional housing data for your congressional district are provided by the US Census Bureau here.

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Housing Cost Burdens Across Congressional Districts

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While the lack of affordable housing dominates the headlines across the nation, congressional districts with higher shares of renter households are disproportionately affected by the current affordability crisis. Geographically, the districts with the largest housing cost burdens are heavily concentrated in California, Florida, and the coastal Northeast.

Buoyed by significant home equity gains and locked in by below-market mortgages rates, current home owners are in a more advantageous financial position to weather the growing affordability crisis. At the same time, renters are facing the worst affordability on record. According to the latest 2023 American Community Survey (ACS), more than half of all renter households, or 23 million, spend 30 percent or more of their income on housing, and therefore are considered burdened by housing costs. Among home owners, the share of households that are cost burdened is less than a quarter (24%). Nevertheless, this amounts to 20.6 million owner households who experience housing cost burdens. As a result, congressional districts where housing markets are dominated by renters are more likely to register higher overall shares of households with cost burdens.

In a typical congressional district, about a third of all households, renters and owners combined, experience housing cost burdens. In contrast, in the ten congressional districts with the highest burden rates, more than half of all households spend 30% or more of their income on housing.

The highest burden rates are found in five districts each in California and New York and two in Florida (see the chart above). In New York’s 15th and 13th, 55% and 52% of households, respectively, are burdened with housing costs. The vast majority of these households are renters, as reflected by the low homeownership rates in these districts, 16% and 13%, respectively. Similarly, the remaining top 10 districts with the highest shares of burdened households have homeownership rates well below the national average of 65%. On the list, only Florida’s 20th and 24th have homeownership rates that exceed 50%. Since congressional districts are drawn to represent roughly the same number of people, higher shares typically translate into larger counts of cost burdened households. To capture any remaining differences, the size of the bubbles in the chart correlates with the overall number of burdened households.

On the rental side, nine out of eleven worst burdened districts are in Florida. Close to two thirds of renters in Florida’s 26th, 20th, 25th and 19th are burdened with housing costs. The renter burden rates are similarly high in Florida’s 28th, 21st, 24th, 13th, and 23rd, where the shares of housing cost burdened renters are between 63% and 64%. Only California’s 27th and 29th register slightly higher burden shares exceeding 64%. At the other end of the spectrum is Wisconsin’s 7th, where just a third of renter households experience housing cost burdens.

Florida, New York, and California stand out for simultaneously having congressional districts with the highest shares of cost burdened renters and owners. The heaviest owner burden rates dozen consists of five congressional districts in New York and California each and two in Florida. In New York’s 9th and 8th districts, 43% and 42% of home owners, respectively, spend 30% of more of their income on housing. While high property taxes contribute heavily to owners’ burden in New York and California, fast rising insurance premiums strain home owners’ budgets in Florida.

The list of congressional districts with the lowest ownership burden rates include Alabama’s 5th, West Virginia’s 1st and 2nd, North Dakota’s at-Large, South Carolina’s 4th, Indiana’s 4th, 5th, and 6th, Arkansas 3rd, Tennessee’s 2nd, Missouri’s 3rd and 6th. Less than 17% of home owners in these districts spend 30% of their income or more on housing.

Additional housing data for your congressional district are provided by the US Census Bureau here.

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Introducing New Video Series — Eye on Housing Highlights

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We’re excited to introduce a new way for you to stay informed about the latest trends in housing and construction economics: our Eye on Housing Highlights video series!

For each edition, we will highlight top research topics including construction statistics, housing affordability, policy research, NAHB surveys, macroeconomics, financial indicators and more.

You can find these videos on eyeonhousing.org in the menu under Highlights—be sure to save the url: eyeonhousing.org/highlights—and check back to see the latest videos.

You can also be reminded by subscribing to our Eye on the Economy Newsletter that shares bi-weekly updates from NAHB’s chief economist on housing and economic activity.

Please note that you won’t receive further emails like this one—this is a one-time announcement of our new series.

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Market Share for Modular and Other Non-Site Built Housing in 2023

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The total market share of non-site built single-family homes (modular and panelized) was just 3% of single-family homes in 2023, according to completion data from the Census Bureau Survey of Construction data and NAHB analysis. This is a slight increase from the 2% share in 2022. This share has been steadily declining since the early-2000s despite the high-level of interest for non-site built construction. This low market share in fact runs counter to some media commentary on off-site construction suggesting recent gains. Nonetheless, there exists potential for market share gains in the years ahead due to the need to increase productivity in the residential construction sector.

In 2023, there were 27,000 total single-family units built using modular (12,000) and panelized/pre-cut (15,000) construction methods, out of a total of 999,000 single-family homes completed. It is worth noting that the Census definitions of off-site construction are relatively narrow. In a separate survey, the Home Innovation Research Labs Survey of U.S. Home Builders has a higher share for panelized construction (5-12%) due to a wider definition of “panelized” construction.

While the Census-measured market share is small, there exists potential for expansion. This 3% market share for 2023 represents a decline from years prior to the Great Recession. In 1998, 7% of single-family completions were modular (4%) or panelized (3%). This marked the largest share for the 1992-2023 period.

One notable regional concentration is found in the Northeast and Midwest. These two regions tie for the highest market share of homes built using non-site build construction methods. In the Northeast, 5% (4,000 homes) of the region’s 61,000 housing units were completed using non-site built construction methods. At the same time, in the Midwest, 5% market share (6,000 homes) of the region’s 126,000 housing units were completed using non-site build construction methods.

With respect to multifamily construction, approximately 7% of multifamily buildings (properties, not units) were built using modular and panelized methods, marking the highest level in the last two decades. This is significantly higher than the 2% share in 2022 and 1% share in 2018-2021. It is notable that modular construction methods accounted for 5% of this share, whereas in previous years it was only panelized construction methods that made up the small share of non-site build methods in multifamily construction.  Prior to last year, the highest levels of modular and panelized methods share in multifamily construction was in 2000 and 2011, where 5% of multifamily buildings were constructed with modular (1%) or panelized construction methods (4%).

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Florida Housing Market 2024 & Predictions for Next 5 Years

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Sunshine, sandy beaches, and a booming tourism industry have always placed Florida’s housing market in the spotlight. This influx of visitors translates to a constantly evolving real estate market, with opportunities and challenges for potential buyers. Home values continue to rise, though slower than in the recent past. This article explores everything you need to know about Florida’s housing market, from pricing trends to valuable insights for buyers and sellers.

Key Takeaways

Sales Surge: Closed sales of existing single-family homes surged by 5.2% year-over-year in July 2024.
Inventory Growth: Both new listings and inventory rose significantly in July 2024 compared to the previous year.
Median Prices: The median sales price for single-family homes saw a slight increase of 0.5%, while condo prices dropped by 1.3%.
Market Variation: Market behaviors vary by region within Florida, indicating diverse conditions.
Interest Rates Impact: Lower mortgage rates are boosting homebuyer demand, enhancing purchasing power.

How is the Florida Housing Market Doing Currently?
Home Sales

In July 2024, Florida’s housing market reported a total of 23,353 closed sales of existing single-family homes, representing a 5.2% increase from the same month last year. Conversely, condo-townhouse sales experienced a slight decline of 1.2%, totaling 8,364 units sold. This differentiator highlights changing preferences among buyers, with single-family homes gaining popularity amidst evolving market conditions.

According to the data from Florida Realtors®, these closed sales serve as a crucial indicator of market health. While sales for single-family homes have risen, the slight fall in condo sales indicates that different segments are behaving variably and buyers are perhaps gravitating towards larger properties that offer more living space.

Home Prices

Analyzing the median sales prices reveals crucial insights into affordability and market dynamics. The statewide median price for single-family existing homes reached $416,990, essentially unchanged with a 0.5% increase from July 2023. Meanwhile, the median price for condo-townhouse units was reported at $315,000—a 1.3% decline year-over-year.

Dr. Brad O’Connor, Chief Economist for Florida Realtors®, emphasized that these price shifts reflect a stabilization that could mitigate affordability challenges. The slight rise in single-family home prices, coupled with the decrease in condo prices, may indicate a normalization of the market as more inventory becomes available.

Housing Supply

The housing supply in Florida is undergoing a transformation, predominantly marked by increased inventory levels. In July 2024, new listings of single-family homes rose by 10.7% compared to the previous year. The condo and townhouse market saw a even steeper increase of 13.8% for new listings.

As reported by Florida Realtors®, single-family homes currently represent a 4.6-month supply, while the supply for condo-townhouse properties sits at 7.4 months. This developing supply landscape indicates a potential shift towards a buyer’s market, easing some of the price pressures that have dominated recent years.

Market Trends

Market trends in Florida are increasingly reflecting a more balanced approach, influenced heavily by rising inventory and changing sales dynamics. There is a marked difference in how various regions within Florida are faring. Urban centers, such as Miami and Orlando, might display robust demand due to economic drivers, while less-populated areas may see moderate activity.

The data suggests that buyers are beginning to have more options, which ultimately leads to more informed purchasing decisions. Lower mortgage rates are also contributing positively, granting buyers greater purchasing power and encouraging first-time homebuyers to enter the market.

According to Florida Realtors® President Gia Arvin, these trends showcase a promising evolution in the marketplace aimed at addressing ongoing affordability challenges. As inventory continues to expand, buyers may find themselves in a more favorable environment for negotiation, potentially leading to longer-term market stability.

In summary, the Florida housing market is showing resilience and adaptability amid fluctuating conditions. With significant increases in inventory and new listings, along with a modest uptick in single-family home sales, state dynamics are making room for potential growth and stability.

Florida Real Estate Forecast for Next 5 Years

Florida home values have risen by about 80% over the past 5 years and a positive trend is forecasted for the next 5 years. With the recent spike in mortgage payments as a result of rising interest rates, analysts are watching the Florida housing market closely to see what effect this will have. It is likely to restrict house price increases, but to what amount is unclear because there is still a “fear of losing out” attitude among purchasers, which is fueling the market, although slowly.

It’s no surprise that Zillow ranked Tampa, Florida, as the top real estate market in the United States in 2022. Florida housing prices have witnessed some of the most dramatic increases in the country, with Miami and Tampa at the forefront of the upswing. Due to a variety of variables, the housing market in Tampa has outpaced many others, including a large number of potential buyers, a scarcity of supply, strong property sales, and an active employment market in the area.

Overall, the Florida housing market is strong and is predicted to remain so in the next five years. If you’re a seller, this is wonderful news since it implies property values are rising and there isn’t much selling competition, giving you the luxury of selecting from the best offers on your schedule. Higher mortgage rates may cause unprepared house buyers to postpone their purchases.

If this reduces buyer demand sufficiently in some Florida areas, price appreciation may decrease. The lower price increase may provide remaining buyers who can afford higher interest rates more confidence in locating a home they can afford. And that leads to fewer home sales. If you’re selling a home in Florida this year, the odds are good that you’ll come out ahead financially. Real estate prices and mortgage rates are rising, and the few affordable houses that remain are being snapped up like sardines. If you want to buy in this market, now’s not the time to buy.

Whether or not the country enters a recession, the housing market appears to be in good shape for the foreseeable future. Perhaps not at the same rate that the United States has lately seen, but growth nevertheless. This is an excellent moment for real estate investors, particularly those interested in Florida, to capitalize on market possibilities.

Florida Real Estate Appreciation Rates For 10 Years

Florida’s real estate market has seen unprecedented price rises during the last few years, as a result of a lack of supply and high demand. Most of the emphasis is focused on the prices and the possibility of a housing bubble. While Florida’s mild temperature, cheap taxes, and natural attractions have historically enticed newcomers to the state, if affordable housing challenges continue to prevail across the state, these enticing elements may go away.

A post-pandemic world necessitates that the state of Florida deal with the fact that pricey housing can in certain respects impede economic growth and have an unequal impact on critical segments of the population. Florida has had some of the strongest housing appreciation rates in the country over the past decade.

Real estate appreciation rates in Florida have shown significant growth over various time periods, making it an attractive market for investors and homeowners alike. Here’s a breakdown of the appreciation rates based on data from NeighborhoodScout:

Latest Quarter (2022 Q4 – 2023 Q1)

During the latest quarter, spanning from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023, Florida’s real estate market experienced a modest appreciation rate of 0.02%. While this figure may seem relatively low, it’s essential to note that it outperformed the national average by 0.08%, indicating a resilient housing market in the face of economic fluctuations.

Last 12 Months (2022 Q1 – 2023 Q1)

Over the past year, from the first quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023, Florida’s real estate market saw a substantial appreciation rate of 13.07%. This robust growth mirrored the average annual rate, once again highlighting the state’s resilience and attractiveness to investors, with a remarkable performance ranking of 10 compared to the rest of the country.

Last 2 Years (2021 Q1 – 2023 Q1)

Examining a slightly longer timeframe, from the first quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2023, the appreciation rate in Florida stood at an impressive 44.36%. This growth far exceeded the national average, by 20.15%, reinforcing Florida’s reputation as a thriving real estate market.

Last 5 Years (2018 Q1 – 2023 Q1)

Over the past five years, from the first quarter of 2018 to the first quarter of 2023, Florida’s real estate market exhibited substantial appreciation, boasting a rate of 77.01%. This rate exceeded the national average by 12.10%, signifying Florida’s consistent and strong real estate performance.

Last 10 Years (2013 Q1 – 2023 Q1)

When considering the last decade, from the first quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2023, Florida’s real estate market recorded remarkable appreciation of 174.83%. This growth, which surpassed the national average by 10.64%, demonstrates the state’s enduring appeal to real estate investors.

Since 2000 (2000 Q1 – 2023 Q1)

Finally, when looking at the broader picture from the first quarter of 2000 to the first quarter of 2023, Florida’s real estate market experienced exceptional appreciation, amounting to 281.81%. Even over this extended period, Florida outperformed the national average by 6.00%, reaffirming its status as a top choice for real estate investment over the years.

These appreciation rates indicate the dynamic and resilient nature of Florida’s real estate market, making it an attractive destination for those looking to invest in property.

Within Florida, Tampa Bay has one of the most overpriced housing markets in the nation, according to new research from Florida Atlantic University. Extremely low mortgage rates drove our red-hot housing market, particularly during the epidemic, and intensified bidding wars. Lakeland ranks 12th nationally, and second in the state, with homes overvalued by more than 53.2%. North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton is No. 17 nationally, fourth in the state at 48.9%.

What’s Affecting the Florida Housing Market in 2024?

Florida’s housing market, once a whirlwind of bidding wars and record-breaking sales, has entered a new phase in 2024. Let’s delve deeper into the key factors shaping this evolving landscape:

The Interest Rate Effect: The most impactful change is the significant rise in mortgage rates. Rates that hovered around 3% in early 2023 have climbed to over 7%, significantly affecting affordability and dampening buyer fervor. This translates to buyers having more breathing room to negotiate and explore options, a stark contrast to the recent past.
Inventory In Flux: With the sales frenzy subsiding, the number of homes on the market is gradually increasing. This rise in inventory benefits buyers by providing more choices and alleviating the intense competition that characterized the market in prior years. While some sellers may still experience bidding wars, particularly for highly desirable properties, buyers are no longer pressured into hasty decisions fueled by a lack of options.
Price Growth in Check: Fueled by low inventory and high demand, home prices in Florida have enjoyed steady appreciation for years. However, with rising interest rates squeezing affordability, the pace of appreciation is expected to slow down considerably in 2024. Experts even predict price stability or slight corrections in some areas, particularly those that experienced the most dramatic price hikes. This could present a potential buying opportunity for those who were previously priced out of the market.
Sellers Re-entering the Fray: Many homeowners who opted to hold off on selling during the seller’s market frenzy may decide to re-enter the market in 2024. This influx of listings will further contribute to the rise in available inventory, potentially tipping the scales further in favor of buyers. However, it’s important to note that Florida’s enduring appeal as a retirement destination and tax haven will continue to attract new residents, putting pressure on housing supply despite the market shift.
Demographic Shifts Continue: Florida’s sunshine, sandy beaches, and reputation for a relaxed lifestyle continue to be a magnet for retirees and those seeking a lower tax burden. This steady influx of new residents will undoubtedly put pressure on housing supply, even with the anticipated rise in inventory. This means that while affordability may improve in the short term, long-term price appreciation is still a possibility due to these strong demographic tailwinds.
New Construction on the Horizon: The persistent demand for housing, coupled with the ongoing shortage of existing inventory, may incentivize an increase in new home construction in 2024. This could help alleviate some of the pressure on housing supply, particularly in high-demand areas. However, rising construction costs and ongoing supply chain issues could pose challenges for builders, potentially limiting the pace of new development.

Will the Housing Market Crash in Florida?

Population growth, and particularly growth in the number of households, lead to a growth in housing demand. Real estate is subject to the law of supply and demand: when there are more purchasers than available homes, prices rise.  Since the 1940s, Florida’s population has increased year after year, often outperforming the national average. However, like the rest of the United States, growth plummeted to historic lows during the initial years of the pandemic until rebounding last year.

Florida is now America’s fastest-growing state. According to recent census data, the Sunshine State added over 400,000 additional people between July 2021 to July 2022. It was a growth of 1.9%, bringing the total population to 22,244,823. That makes it faster-growing than Texas, which has the second-largest population in the United States, trailing only California.

According to experts, the national housing market or the market in Florida is nowhere near the crash that occurred during the Great Recession of 2008. This is partially due to tighter lending laws coming from the financial crisis. Borrowers are in considerably better shape, as seen by their improved credit scores. And as a result of rising home values, homeowners have a record amount of equity.

The current situation is a fairly complex web, but it’s nothing compared to the 2008-2009 market crisis, which took years to unravel. The Fed’s pandemic actions fueled a housing boom. As it tries to withdraw that support, it could be bad news for housing but will it lead to a crash? The Fed will continue to play a crucial role in the future of the housing market.

Back in February 2020, the Fed owned $1.4 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, and the number was falling rapidly. As the pandemic took root, however, the central bank initiated a new round of bond purchases (known as “quantitative easing”), bringing the number to $2.7 trillion.

Fed seeks to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation Although it wants to shrink that portfolio it is quite improbable that the Fed can unwind its balance sheet. It might simply accept the fact that it will continue to play a disproportionate role in the housing market and have a larger balance sheet than it would prefer. Prepare for a collapse, not a correction, in the housing market during the next 18 to 24 months if they do.

How is the Florida Housing Market for Investors?

Florida’s strong population growth, diverse job market, tourist attractions, affordable property prices, tax benefits, and diversified economy all contribute to making it a hot spot for real estate investment.

Strong Population Growth and Job Market:

Florida has strong population growth, particularly in cities like Miami, Orlando, and Tampa. The population has grown consistently and positively over the years, and in 2023, it increased by 1.6%. This makes Florida the third most populated state in the US, with a population of over 22.6 million people.

In 2022, Florida was the fastest-growing state in the country for the first time since the 1950s, increasing by 1.9%. This leads to an increased demand for housing, making it a prime location for real estate investment.

Additionally, Florida’s job market is diverse and growing, which attracts new residents and supports the demand for housing. According to FloridaCommerce, Florida’s private sector job growth rate increased by 2.1% in March 2024, which is faster than the national rate of 1.7%. In January 2024, Florida’s labor force grew by 2.2%, which is faster than the national rate of 0.8%.

Tourist Attraction:

Florida is a booming real estate market due to tourism. Florida attracts millions of tourists annually. In 2023, Florida’s market share of domestic tourists increased to 14.8%, up from 13.8% in 2022. This surge in market share represents the largest increase of any state, underscoring Florida’s appeal to travelers from across the country.2 days ago

In tourist-heavy areas like Miami, Orlando, and others, vacation rental properties are in high demand. Vacation rentals offer greater space, privacy, and facilities than hotels for Florida tourists. Investors can earn rental income and gain property value via vacation rentals.

Vacation rental properties are more reliable and profitable than typical rental properties due to high demand. Tourists pay extra for comfortable vacation rentals. Tourist demand can remain consistent throughout economic downturns, making vacation rental properties more market-resilient. Florida’s great tourist draw can offer real estate investors looking for vacation rental properties a reliable and successful revenue stream and property value appreciation.

Realtively Affordable Property Prices:

Compared to other states like California, property prices in Florida are relatively affordable, which can make it an attractive option for real estate investors. This can lead to strong returns on investment and can make it easier for investors to purchase multiple properties. It’s important to note that property prices can vary widely depending on location and property type. While some areas of Florida may have lower property prices, other areas, such as beachfront or tourist-friendly areas, may have higher property prices.

Tax Benefits:

Florida’s lack of state income tax holds significant advantages for real estate investors. This translates to higher net profits, as rental income isn’t taxed by the state. This frees up more cash flow that can be used for reinvestment, debt repayment, or simply boosting financial security. Additionally, the absence of state income tax directly improves the return on investment (ROI). With less money going towards taxes, the overall return becomes more attractive.

Compared to real estate markets in states with high income tax rates, Florida offers a competitive edge. Investors looking to maximize their returns are naturally drawn to Florida’s tax benefits. There’s also a tax deferral advantage. Capital gains taxes on selling an investment property are typically deferred until the sale occurs. This allows investors to accumulate wealth and potentially benefit from lower tax rates in the future.

For seasonal residents who rent out their properties during off-seasons, Florida’s tax structure is particularly attractive. The lack of state income tax on rental income can be a major draw, making Florida a compelling option for this investor group.

It’s important to remember that while there’s no state income tax, Florida does have other taxes that can impact real estate investors. Property taxes and sales taxes on renovations are important factors to consider. Consulting with a tax advisor is crucial to fully understand the tax implications of real estate investment in Florida.

Diversified Economy:

Florida’s real estate market benefits from the state’s diverse economic landscape. Unlike regions reliant on a single industry, Florida’s economic engine is powered by a mix of sectors like agriculture, tourism, aerospace, and technology. This diversification acts as a buffer during economic downturns.

Florida’s economy grew 9.3% in 2023, the fastest rate in the country, and is expected to continue to grow at a faster pace than any other state. However, some expect growth to decelerate to 2.8% and 1.1% over the current and next fiscal years as businesses and consumers transition from a high inflation environment to a high interest rate environment.

Even if one industry slumps, the others can help maintain stability, which translates to a more predictable market for real estate investors. However, this advantage shouldn’t overshadow the importance of thorough research. Understanding the specific market, the property itself, and developing a risk management plan are all crucial steps before investing in Florida real estate.





This article was originally published by a www.noradarealestate.com . Read the Original article here. .

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Housing Market Predictions For 2024: When Will Home Prices Be Affordable Again?

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Editorial Note: We earn a commission from partner links on Forbes Advisor. Commissions do not affect our editors’ opinions or evaluations.

The housing market might finally be entering a transitional phase.

Summer sales have been tepid thus far, but there are signs that activity could heat up by the end of the summer as mortgage rates plunge to their lowest levels in roughly 15 months and much-needed resale inventory continues to enter the market, giving buyers more options.

Other good news for home shoppers is the ongoing decline in the median price for a new home—now below the median resale home price—even as builders continue offering buyer incentives.

Nonetheless, experts say the housing market will only see renewed momentum once mortgage rates drop enough to ease affordability challenges and incentivize homeowners locked in at low rates to move so inventory grows substantially to meet demand.

Housing Market Forecast for 2024

U.S. home prices posted a 5.9% annual gain for May, down from a 6.4% annualized gain in April, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Yet, even as this annual gain marks a slowdown, the index still broke the previous month’s record high, indicating home prices are still out of reach for many.

“Affordability is the main constraint on the housing market,” Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, said in an emailed statement. “The market will move toward more of a balanced housing market in the second half of the year, but prospective home buyers will still face competition.”

Though affordability obstacles persist for buyers, other indicators suggest that the market is tilting toward buyers. Zillow reports that roughly 25% of its listings saw price cuts in June. The last time the rate was this high for cuts this time of year was in 2018.

Meanwhile, experts are hopeful that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will finally cut the federal funds rate in September, as inflation is cooling down sustainably toward the Fed’s 2% target.

Mortgage rates indirectly track this benchmark interest rate banks use as a guide for overnight lending. With the federal funds rate at its highest level in over two decades, mortgage rates—and borrowers—have been feeling the added impact on their ability to afford a home.

Will the Housing Market Finally Recover in 2024?

For a housing recovery to occur, several conditions must unfold.

“For the best possible outcome, we’d first need to see inventories of homes for sale turn considerably higher,” says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at online mortgage company HSH.com. “This additional inventory, in turn, would ease the upward pressure on home prices, leveling them off or perhaps helping them to settle back somewhat from peak or near-peak levels.”

Of course, mortgage rates would need to cool off, which seems promising given the recent declines. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has been below 7% since the first week of June and has largely trended down, landing at 6.49% in the week ending August 15.

However, when mortgage rates finally go on the descent, Gumbinger says don’t hope they cool too quickly. Rapidly falling rates could create a surge of demand that wipes away any inventory gains, causing home prices to rebound.

“Better that rate reductions happen at a metered pace, incrementally improving buyer opportunities over a stretch of time, rather than all at once,” Gumbinger says.

He adds that mortgage rates returning to a more “normal” upper 4% to lower 5% range would also help the housing market, over time, return to 2014-2019 levels. Yet, Gumbinger predicts it could be a while before we return to those rates.

NAR To Implement Settlement Agreement Changes in August

Following years of litigation, the NAR has agreed to pay $418 million to settle a series of high-profile antitrust lawsuits filed in 2019 on behalf of home sellers. The settlement received preliminary court approval in April. A judge is expected to grant final approval in November. Meanwhile, NAR announced that the new required practices will go into effect on August 17.

The required new rules prohibit broker compensation offers on multiple listing services (MLS), the private databases that allow local real estate brokers to publish and share information about residential property listings.

Moreover, sellers will no longer be responsible for paying buyer broker commissions—upending an accepted practice that has been in place for years—and real estate agents participating in the MLS must establish written representation agreements with buyers.

If you sold a home in the past 10 years, you may be eligible for a small piece of this settlement pie. Visit realestatecommissionlitigation.com for more information about filing a claim.

Housing Inventory Forecast: When Will There Be Sufficient Supply To Reduce Prices?

Despite more resale homes entering the market, the inventory shortage remains severe and likely will for some time, thanks to multiple headwinds.

For one, many homeowners remain “locked in” at ultra-low mortgage rates, unwilling to exchange for a higher rate in a high-priced housing market. Consequently, demand continues to outpace housing supply—and likely will for the remainder of this year.

“I don’t expect to see a meaningful increase in the supply of existing homes for sale until mortgage rates are back down in the low 5% range, so probably not in 2024,” says Rick Sharga, founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, a market intelligence and business advisory firm.

New home construction has provided some relief, with inventory at its highest since early 2008. However, more than this welcome supply is needed to fill the inventory gap.

Still, while inventory is some 33% lower than pre-pandemic averages, there is a bright spot in the data—current inventory levels sit at their smallest deficit since fall 2020, according to Zillow analysis. Inventory may improve further if home prices and mortgage rates stay high.

Here’s what the latest home values look like around the country.

Home Builder Sentiment Ticks Down Again

Builder sentiment continues to wilt with the summer heat.

High mortgage rates and sticky inflation are primarily to blame for the dampened outlook for new construction, with builder confidence inching down from 43 to 42 in June, according to the most recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This reading marks the third consecutive month of downward movement and negative sentiment.

A reading of 50 or above means more builders see good conditions ahead for new construction.

Meanwhile, the construction of new homes, which had been on a tear, helping to fill the hole left by scant resale inventory, continues to sputter.

New single-family home permits fell to their lowest seasonally adjusted annual rate since May 2023 amid builder blahs, dipping 2.3% month-over-month in June, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Housing starts were down 2.2%, and completions rose only 1.8% from May.

Meanwhile, prospective buyers have reason to be optimistic: 31% of builders slashed prices in June to bolster sales compared to 25% in May, according to an NAHB press statement. A majority of builders were also open to offering incentives.

Residential Real Estate Stats: Existing, New and Pending Home Sales

New and existing home sales were down in June, but pending sales are looking up. Here’s what the latest home sales data has to say.

Existing-Home Sales

Existing-home sales slumped 5.4% in June, according to the latest report from NAR, marking the fourth straight month of declines as home prices reached their highest on record, putting off potential buyers. Sales also fell 5.4% compared to June last year.

Could we finally be tipping over into a buyer’s market? Experts seem to think so.

“Homes are sitting on the market a bit longer, and sellers are receiving fewer offers,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, in the report. “More buyers are insisting on home inspections and appraisals, and inventory is definitively rising on a national basis.”

Meanwhile, resale homes hit an eye-popping $426,900, a bridge too far for many prospective buyers.

Still, there’s an upside to out-of-reach home prices prompting sales declines—resale inventory has been loosening since December and hit its highest levels in over four years.

The latest NAR data shows inventory growing 3.1% month-over-month, logging 1.32 million unsold homes at the end of June. Supply crossed a key threshold, with 4.1 months of inventory available at the current monthly sales pace. Most experts consider a balanced market between four and six months.

New Home Sales

Meanwhile, despite their appeal, new homes were also not invulnerable to the high mortgage rates we saw this spring.

Amid rates hovering near or above 7%, June sales of newly constructed single-family houses inched down 0.6% compared to May sales and plunged 7.4% from a year ago, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau and HUD data.

The good news for prospective buyers is that the slow pace of new home sales continues to push up new home inventory. Even so, buyers aren’t biting.

“Many buyers are holding off on jumping into the market, hoping to see lower mortgage rates or lower home prices later this year,” said Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, in an emailed statement.

Speaking of lower home prices, those shopping for new construction will be happy to hear that the median price for a new home in June fell $100 to $417,300, putting the national median new home price below the national median existing-home price by $9,600.

The South and Midwest regions registered the lowest median new home sales prices in Q2 at roughly $372,000, according to pending U.S. Census Bureau and HUD quarterly sales data.

Recent Home Sales Data

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and NAR

See More See Less

Pending Home Sales

Home sales may heat up toward the end of summer.

NAR’s Pending Homes Sales Index jumped 4.8% in June compared to the previous month, with contract signings increasing in all four U.S. regions. This welcome reading follows a dismal April and May when the index plummeted by nearly 10%.

Buyers took advantage of the increase in inventory coupled with the average 30-year fixed rate breaking below 7% in June and sliding further over the month.

A pending home sale marks the point in the purchase transaction when the buyer and seller agree on price and terms and is considered a leading indicator of a closed existing-home sale within the next one to two months.

Despite the month-over-month bump, pending transactions were down 2.6% annually. Still, experts anticipate that reading could improve in a few months when rates could be meaningfully lower compared to 2023.

“The number of pending sales in June would have been even higher, but some home buyers are holding back, anticipating lower mortgage rates later this year,” said Sturtevant in an emailed statement.

Affordability Challenges Hinder Summer Housing Market From Gathering Steam: Will Fall Be Better for Buyers?

Though home prices and mortgage rates remain high, there are signs the housing market is moving back into balance—albeit slowly and unevenly across regions.

In the week ending June 27, when mortgage rates were 6.86%, borrowers who put 20% down on a $417,300 median-priced resale home with a 30-year mortgage had to shell out a monthly mortgage payment of $2,189, not including property taxes and insurance.

Someone who purchased a resale home a year ago is paying only $32 less per month.

Even so, the latest NAR Housing Affordability Index shows that challenges remain.

The index receded to a preliminary reading of 93.1 in May. A national index reading below 100 indicates that a median-priced home is unaffordable for the typical family earning a median income.

At the NAR Real Estate State Forecast Summit in July, Yun noted that the current monthly payment for a median-priced house, excluding insurance and property taxes, has more than doubled since 2019.

To add insult to injury, it now costs first-time home buyers $1 million to buy a starter home in over 237 U.S. cities—up from 84 five years ago—according to a Zillow report. Though the national median price for a starter home is an affordable $196,611, it’s probably easier to find a needle in a haystack.

So, when can prospective buyers finally hope to get some relief?

Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, cautions against holding your breath.

“While we expect home price growth to decelerate further in the coming quarters, a still-tight inventory of homes for sale and stretched affordability remain significant challenges and, in our view, are likely to constrain mortgage demand and home sales for the foreseeable future,” he said in a press statement.

Pro Tips for Buyers and Sellers

Here are some expert tips to increase your chances for an optimal outcome in this tight housing market.

Pro Tips for Buying in Today’s Real Estate Market

Hannah Jones, a senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, offers this expert advice to aspiring buyers:

Know your budget. Instead of focusing on price, figure out how much you can afford as a monthly payment. Your monthly housing payment is influenced by the price of the home, your down payment, mortgage rate, loan term, home insurance and property taxes.
Be flexible about home size and location. Perhaps your budget is sufficient for a small home in your perfect neighborhood, or a larger, newer home further out. Understanding your priorities and having some flexibility can help you move quickly when a suitable home enters the market.
Keep an eye on the market where you hope to buy. Determine the area’s available inventory and price levels. Also, pay attention to how quickly homes sell. Not only will you be tuned in when something great hits the market, you can feel more confident moving forward with purchasing a well-priced home. A real estate agent can help with this.
Don’t be discouraged. Purchasing a home is one of the largest financial decisions you’ll ever make. Approaching the market confidently, armed with good information and grounded expectations will take you far. Don’t let the hustle of the market convince you to buy something that’s not in your budget, or not right for your lifestyle.

…Always get pre-approved with a strong and reputable lender as soon as possible. Getting pre-approved will give you a much clearer understanding of your budget and what you can afford, it shows sellers that you’re a qualified buyer and it strengthens your offers.

— Scott Bridges, senior managing director at Pennymac and Forbes Advisor advisory board member

Pro Tips for Selling in Today’s Real Estate Market

Gary Ashton, founder of The Ashton Real Estate Group of RE/MAX Advantage, has this expert advice for sellers:

Research comparable home prices in your area. Sellers need to have the most up-to-date pricing intel on comparable homes selling in their market. Know the market competition and price the home competitively. In addition, understand that in some price points it’s a buyer’s market—you’ll need to be prepared to make some concessions.
Make sure your home is in top-notch shape. Homes need to be in great condition to compete and create a strong “online curb appeal.” Well-maintained homes and attractive front yards are major features that buyers look for.
Work with a local real estate agent. A real estate agent or team with a strong local marketing presence and access to major real estate portals can offer significant value and help you land a great deal.
Don’t put off issues that require attention. Prepare the home by making any repairs or improvements. Removing any objections that buyers may see helps focus the buyer on the positive attributes of the home.

Will the Housing Market Crash in 2024?

As already-high home prices continue trending upward, you may be concerned that we’re in a bubble ready to pop. However, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.

“[T]he record low supply of houses on the market protects against a market crash,” says Tom Hutchens, executive vice president of production at Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions, a non-QM lender.

Moreover, experts point out that today’s homeowners stand on much more secure footing than those coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, with many borrowers having substantial home equity.

“In 2024, I expect we’ll see home appreciation take a step back but not plummet,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.

This outlook aligns with what other housing market watchers expect.

“Comerica forecasts that national house prices will rise 2.9% in 2024,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, in an emailed statement.

Divounguy also notes that several factors, including Millennials entering their prime home-buying years, wage growth and financial wealth are tailwinds that will sustain housing demand in 2024.

Even so, with fewer homes selling, Dan Hnatkovskyy, co-founder and CEO of NewHomesMate, a marketplace for new construction homes, sees a price collapse within the realm of possibility, especially in markets where real estate investors scooped up numerous properties.

“If something pushes that over the edge, the consequences could be severe,” said Hnatkovskyy, in an emailed statement.

What Experts Are Saying About a Foreclosures Wave in 2024

Lenders began foreclosures on 18,574 properties nationwide in June, down 17% from the previous month and down 22.7% from a year ago, according to real estate data firm Attom.

Meanwhile, completed foreclosures edged up a hair compared to the previous month, with real estate-owned properties, or REOs, increasing by 0.1%. More notably, REOs were down 10% from a year ago. REOs are homes that didn’t sell at foreclosure auctions, with mortgage lenders taking possession of the properties.

These June figures cap off a six-month span of decreases in foreclosure filings compared to the year prior, with the first half of 2024 running 4.4% lower than the same period in 2023.

“These shifts could suggest a potential stabilization in the housing market; however, monitoring these evolving patterns remains crucial to understanding the full impact on the real estate sector,” said Rob Barber, CEO at Attom, in the report.

Whatever patterns evolve in the coming months, experts generally don’t expect to see a wave of foreclosures in 2024.

“Foreclosure activity continues to lag behind pre-pandemic levels and is still at about 70% of 2019 numbers,” says Sharga.

Sharga explains that a significant factor contributing to today’s comparatively low levels of foreclosure activity is that homeowners—including those in foreclosure—possess an unprecedented amount of home equity.

Homeowners with mortgages saw a collective increase of $1.5 trillion in home equity, lifting total net homeowner equity to over $17 trillion in Q1 2024, the highest figure since late 2022, according to the latest CoreLogic home equity report.

Meanwhile, more homeowners are getting richer as home price growth surges. The percentage of equity-rich mortgages rose in 48 out of 50 states between Q1 and Q2 this year, according to Attom.

“For a homeowner in the early stage of foreclosure, that equity helps them avoid a foreclosure sale, either by leveraging the equity to pay down past due mortgage bills, or by selling their property in order to protect the equity they’d otherwise lose at the auction,” Sharga says.

When Will Be the Best Time To Buy a Home in 2024?

Buying a house—in any market—is a highly personal decision. Because homes represent the largest single purchase most people will make in their lifetime, it’s crucial to be in a solid financial position before diving in.

Use a mortgage calculator to estimate your monthly housing costs based on your down. But if you’re trying to predict what might happen next year, experts say this is probably not the best home-buying strategy.

“The housing market—like so many other markets—is almost impossible to time,“ Divounguy says. “The best time for prospective buyers is when they find a home that they like, that meets their family’s current and foreseeable needs and that they can afford.”

Gumbinger agrees it’s hard to tell would-be homeowners to wait for better conditions.

“More often, it seems the case that home prices generally keep rising, so the goalposts for amassing a down payment keep moving, and there’s no guarantee that tomorrow’s conditions will be all that much better in the aggregate than today’s.”

Divounguy says “getting on the housing ladder” is worthwhile to begin building equity and net worth.

Historically, families with children often find the summer months to be the best time to buy. With that said, recent trends suggest late fall or early winter can also be a great time for homebuyers to purchase a new property due to less buying pressure. Once the summer ends, many buyers have completed their purchase and are no longer in the market, which means less competition.

– Scott Bridges, senior managing director at Pennymac and Forbes Advisor advisory board member

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Will declining mortgage rates cause home prices to rise?

Declining mortgage rates will likely incentivize would-be buyers anxious to own a home to jump into the market. Expect this increased demand amid today’s tight housing supply to put upward pressure on home prices.

What will happen if the housing market crashes?

Most experts do not expect a housing market crash in 2024 since many homeowners have built up significant home equity. The issue is primarily an affordability crisis. High interest rates and inflated home values have made purchasing a home challenging for first-time homebuyers.

Is it smart to buy real estate before a recession?

If you’re in a financial position to buy a home you plan to live in for the long term, it won’t matter when you buy it because you will live in it through economic highs and lows. However, if you are looking to buy real estate as a short-term investment, it will come with more risk if you buy at the height before a recession.



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