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Despite recent easing mortgage rates and improved inventory, existing home sales fell to a 14-year low in September as elevated home prices are causing potential buyers to hold out for lower rates, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Sales remained sluggish as the lock-in effect kept home prices elevated. However, we expect increased activity in the coming months as mortgage rates moderate with additional Fed easing. Improving inventory should help slow home price growth and enhance affordability.

Homeowners with lower mortgage rates have opted to stay put, avoiding trading existing mortgages for new ones with higher rates. This trend is driving home prices higher and holding back inventory. With the Federal Reserve beginning its easing cycle at the September meeting, mortgage rates are expected to gradually decrease, leading to increased demand and unlocking lock-in inventory in the coming quarters.

Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, fell 1.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million in September, the lowest level since October 2010. On a year-over-year basis, sales were 3.5% lower than a year ago.

The first-time buyer share remained at 26% in September, matching the lowest level since November 2021 and August 2024, but down from 27% in September 2023.

The existing home inventory level rose from 1.37 million in August to 1.39 million units in September and is up 23.0% from a year ago. At the current sales rate, September unsold inventory sits at a 4.3-months supply, up from 4.2-months last month and 3.4-months a year ago. This inventory level remains low compared to balanced market conditions (4.5 to 6 months’ supply) and illustrates the long-run need for more home construction. However, the count of single-family resale homes available for sale is up almost 22.2% on a year-over-year basis.

Homes stayed on the market for an average of 28 days in September, up from 26 days in August and 21 days in September 2023.

The September all-cash sales share was 30% of transactions, up from 26% in August and 29% a year ago. All-cash buyers are less affected by changes in interest rates.

The September median sales price of all existing homes was $404,500, up 3.0% from last year. This marked the 15th consecutive month of year-over-year increases and the highest level for the month of September. The median condominium/co-op price in September was up 2.2% from a year ago at $361,600. This rate of price growth will slow as inventory increases.

Existing home sales in September were mixed across the four major regions. In the Northeast, Midwest, and South, sales fell by 4.2%, 2.2%, and 1.7%, respectively, while sales in the Midwest rose by 4.1%. On a year-over-year basis, sales decreased in the Northeast (-6.1%), Midwest (-5.3%) and South (-5.5%). Sales in the West increased 5.6% from a year ago.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI rose from 70.2 to 70.6 in August due to lower mortgage rates. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales were 3.0% lower than a year ago per National Association of Realtors data.

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Residential improvement spending softened in 2023 due to elevated interest rates, high inflation, and sluggish home sales. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA), expenditures for residential home improvements rose 2% to $363 billion in 2023, from $356 billion in 2022. The 2% year-over-year (YOY) gain in 2023 marks the smallest YOY gain since 2011. This annual data indicates that the YOY gain in residential improvement spending slowed, but the remodeling market remained solid.

In this article, NAHB’s analysis of the 2023 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data provides insight into remodeling activity in 2023 by age group, and by U.S. states and counties. The 2023 HMDA data, published by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), covers detailed information on residential mortgage lending in 2023, including the type, purpose, and characteristics of home mortgage applications or purchased loans, and demographic and other information about loan applicants.

According to the 2023 HMDA data, the number of home improvement loan applications declined by 17% in 2023, compared to the previous year. Moreover, the total amount of home improvement loans was about 44 billion (24%) less than the total amount in 2022.

Age Group Analysis:

Figure 1 below presents the number of home improvement loan applications by applicants’ age from 2018 to 2023. Among all age groups, the number of home improvement loan applications surged in 2022 and declined in 2023. Compared to 2022, the number of home improvement loan applications decreased by 23% in 2023 for applicants aged between 25 and 34 and between 35 and 40. Applicants between the ages of 45 and 54 remained the largest age group to apply for home improvement loan applications, even though the number of loan applications for this age group reduced by 18% in 2023.

For applicants under 55 years old and above 74 years old, the number of loan applications in 2023 was higher than the pre-pandemic level in 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, applicants aged between 55 and 74 had a lower number of loan applications in 2023 than in 2018 and 2019. As interest rates reached historically high levels in 2023, homeowners used savings to pay for home improvements, avoiding the extra expense of interest on loans.

State-Level Analysis:

While remodeling activity changed among different age groups, remodeling has also varied across geographic locations due to the cost of living, local economic conditions, and house prices.

With respect to total home improvement loan applications, California had the highest number of home improvement loan applications in 2023, with 118,649 applications. Florida came in second with 102,746 home improvement loan applications. Wyoming and Alaska had the lowest total numbers of home improvement loan applications with 1,312 and 1,358, respectively.

When we look at home improvement loan applications per 1,000 population, two states in New England, Rhode Island and New Hampshire, had the highest number of home improvement loan applications, with a rate of 6.4 and 6.0 applications per 1,000 population, respectively. Louisiana had the lowest number of home improvement loan applications, with a rate of 1.6 applications per 1,000 population.

In total, there were 3.7 loan applications for home improvements for every 1,000 population in the United States. California, the most populous state of the United States, reported 3.0 applications per 1,000 population, which is lower than the national average rate.

County-Level Analysis:

The analysis of county-level home improvement loan applications per 1,000 population reveals that the aggregate market population is not significantly related to the number of per capita home improvement loan applications. In 2023, the top 10 most populated counties in the United States had an average rate of 2.6 loan applications per 1,000 population. Los Angeles County in California, one of the most populous counties, reported a rate of 2.8 loan applications per 1,000 population in 2023.  Meanwhile, some counties with a lower population had a higher loan application rate (that is, the number of home improvement loan applications per 1,000 population). For example, Nantucket County in Massachusetts, with a population of about 14,000, had the highest loan application rate of 11.1 among all the counties in the United States. Camas County in Idaho, with roughly one thousand population, had a loan application rate of 8.9, higher than about 99.7% of the counties in the United States.

Additionally, the analysis finds that home improvement loan applications are relatively more common in the Mountain and New England Divisions. In total, there were 43 counties that reported 7 or higher home improvement loan applications per 1,000 population, and more than 72% of these counties were in the Mountain and New England Divisions. None of these 43 counties were in the West South Central, East South Central, or West North Central Divisions. The top five counties with the highest home improvement loan application rate were: Nantucket County (MA), Grand Isle County (VT), Dare County (NC), Boise County (ID), and Barnstable County (MA).

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Approximately 2.3 million tax returns filed for tax year 2023 utilized the Energy Efficient Home Improvement credit (25C tax credit), according to the latest IRS clean energy tax credit statistics. Through May 23rd of the 2024 tax filing season for 2023 returns, almost 138 million tax returns had been filed with the IRS, which indicates that 1.7% of returns filed utilized the 25C credit. There are various types of improvements that can be claimed under the 25C credit; each improvement varies in its cost and credit amount. Additionally, claim rates of the 25C tax credit varies across taxpayers’ incomes as well as geographies. This post examines these data.

The 25C tax credit allows homeowners to claim qualifying energy efficiency improvements to their primary or secondary residence. Renters can also claim the credit for certain energy efficient appliance and product expenditures. The 25C credit amount is based on 30% of the improvement’s cost and is subject to the improvement’s specific credit limit. For improvements such as electric or natural gas heat pumps, heat pump water heaters, or biomass stoves/boilers, the credit limit per year is $2,000. All other home improvements, such as efficient AC units, insulation/air sealing or home energy audits are limited to a combined credit limit of $1,200, with individual limitations for each item. The total annual credit amount that can be claimed is $3,200 per year. The table below from the Department of Energy shows the available tax credit amounts for tax years 2023 through 2032.

Cost of Improvement and Usage

The credit can cover both the purchase and installation costs for heat pumps, energy efficient AC units, furnaces/ boilers, water heaters, biomass stoves/ boilers, and electric panel/circuit board upgrades. For building envelope components (insulation, doors, windows, skylights), only the purchase can be covered.

The recent IRS data indicates that the most expensive improvement claimed in tax year 2023 was the purchase and installation of electric or natural gas heat pumps at an average cost of $11,213. The costliest item that did not cover installation costs was exterior windows and skylights at $9,143.

Shown below in orange are the average costs for each 25C improvement item in the IRS data. In blue is the credit amount of each improvement, based on its average cost and applicable credit limits. For almost all items, 30% of the improvement’s cost far surpass the credit limit amounts. The only exceptions are heat pump water heaters and biomass stoves/broilers that on average do not exceed the credit limit.

For example, the average cost of installation and purchase of a biomass stove/broiler was $5,221. Taking 30% of this cost, we find a credit amount of $1,566, which is below the credit limit of $2,000 for this improvement. Compared with the costliest improvement, electric or natural gas heat pumps, 30% of the average cost is $3,364. This is above the credit limit, making the largest possible credit amount $2,000 for electric or natural gas heat pumps installation and purchase. The average credit amount, shown below in purple, was $882, well below the maximum possible credit limit of $3,200, shown in light purple.

Of the 2.3 million taxpayers that claimed the 25C credit, the most frequent improvement was the purchase of insulation or air sealing materials or system with 699,440 returns (29.9%). This improvement is the only item to the combined cap of $1,200 that also has an individual limit of $1,200. Improvements that have a combined limit of $1,200 are in the green shaded box below. The least claimed improvement was home energy audits, which also had the lowest credit limit of $150.

Income and Geographic Differences

The highest claim rate of the 25C credit by income was for taxpayers in the $200,000-$500,000 income range, with 4.83% of returns claiming a 25C tax credit. The lowest was for incomes between $1-$10,000, as 0.02% of returns claimed the credit.

Geographically, the highest claim rate of the 25C tax credit was in Maine, with 3.03% of tax returns in the state claiming 25C. The lowest rate was in Hawaii, where only 0.50% of returns claimed the credit. Usage was significantly higher in the Midwest and Northeast, as the top 10 usage rates were all located in these regions.

While Maine has the highest claim rate, Washington had the highest average credit amount at $1,191. The lowest average credit amount was in Iowa, at $743. Of particular note, Michigan and Wisconsin had low average credit amounts but were among the top ten in terms of claim rates. In Michigan, the average credit amount was $747, ranking 49th (includes DC), while the claim rate was 9th at 2.45%. In Wisconsin, the average credit amount was $761, ranking 48th, and the claim rate was 6th, at 2.51%. The reasoning for this trend could be due to the type of improvements by region but there is no IRS data published yet to clarify this hypothesis.

Additionally, usage rates could be relatively lower in the Southern portion of the U.S. because the costliest items, such as heat pumps, are not as critical as regional weather is warmer. Since this credit cannot be applied to new construction, it should also be noted that most new homes are being built with central AC, making it less likely to be claimed as a 25C improvement. Also, most homes in the North are built without heat pumps which allows for more opportunity for the cost to be claimed under 25C if such improvement is made. Nationally, the claim rate was 1.7% with an average credit amount of $882.

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Start at the Top

Work from the top down: Tackle the ceiling, picture rails and high shelves first, then work toward the floor. A vacuum cleaner with a long hose and multiple attachments is the most efficient tool, as it will suck up the dust before it can settle on the furniture below.

For really high spots, be prepared to get out the stepladder once in a while. Rather than dangerously balance a vacuum cleaner on it, track down a nifty flexible-wand duster with a good reach. This will get to awkward and small spaces, trapping the dust on its high-pile sleeve.

If your vacuum cleaner’s nozzle doesn’t fit in narrow spaces, such as sliding door tracks, try sliding on a cardboard tube from a roll of paper towels. You can crush, fold and mold it to handle tricky spaces.

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NAHB published research earlier this year on home buyer preferences called What Home Buyers Really Want. Consumers were asked to rate how 19 technology features would influence their home purchase decision, if at all, using the following four-point scale:

Do not want – not likely to buy a home with this design or feature.

Indifferent – wouldn’t influence decision.

Desirable – would be seriously influenced to purchase a home because this design or feature was included.

Essential/Must have – unlikely to purchase a home without this design or feature

Seventy-eight percent of home buyers rated a programmable thermostat as either essential/must have or desirable, followed by security cameras (76%), video doorbell (74%), and wireless home security system (70%).  Sixteen of the 19 technology features had at least 50% of home buyers rating them as essential or desirable.

The top eight features reveal that home buyers are looking for technology that helps them achieve two main goals:

Improve Energy Efficiency (programmable thermostat, multi-zone HVAC system, lighting control system, energy management system/display) AND

Increase Safety (security cameras, video doorbell, wireless & wired home security system)

Additionally, like the other areas of the home covered in the study, every question on technology features is tabulated by the buyer’s income, age, geography, race, household type, and the price they expect to pay for the home. These details can be very useful in particular cases. For example, the study discusses the five technology features that have the largest preference margins between the youngest and oldest buyers along with analyzing the prevalence of virtual tours by income and price point. 

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This 1907 home on a spacious lot in New Jersey had many beautiful details, including walnut millwork and original molding. But those details had aged past the point of rescue. So the homeowners reached out to designer Anastasia Harrison of AHD&Co to help update the home while honoring its roots. Harrison, who uses Houzz Pro business software, started by taking a piece of original stained walnut to a millworker and creating a match for new rich walnut cabinets in the kitchen. A new curved island has reeded detailing that complements reeded lighting and glass cabinet doors.

Elsewhere, fresh elements like a salmon pink paint for that original molding in the dining room, brick-look porcelain tile in a herringbone pattern for the mudroom and a light-filled en suite bathroom in a former sunroom ensure this home will remain timeless for years to come.

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This article was originally published by a www.houzz.com . Read the Original article here. .


The latest NAHB study on home buyer preferences – What Home Buyers Really Want Study – asked consumers about the features and amenities they would want in a home, specifically regarding windows and exterior doors.  Respondents were asked to rate eight window and four exterior door features using the following four-point scale:

Do not want – not likely to buy a home with this design or feature.

Indifferent – wouldn’t influence decision.

Desirable – would be seriously influenced to purchase a home because this design or feature was included.

Essential/Must have – unlikely to purchase a home without this design or feature.

Windows

ENERGY STAR rated windows were rated essential or desirable by 83% of home buyers, followed by triple-pane insulating glass (77%) and low e-insulating glass (67%).  Since its introduction to the survey in 2007, ENERGY STAR rated windows have been wanted by at least 83% of home buyers (Figure 1).  Additionally, ENERGY STAR windows were ranked the third most wanted feature out of the 200+ options asked within the survey.

Doors

All four exterior door features were rated essential or desirable by a majority of home buyers (>50%) with very little separating the highest (sliding patio doors at 64%) to the lowest (double main entry door at 58%) rated options.  Furthermore, all four exterior door features have increased in popularity compared to 2020, with double main entry door rising the most (10 percentage points) (Figure 2). 

Additionally, like the other areas of the home covered in the study, every question on windows and doors is tabulated by the buyer’s income, age, geography, race, household type, and the price they expect to pay for the home.  These details can be very useful in particular cases.  For example, the study discusses the three window features that appeal to older buyers, as well as how preferences for hinged/French patio doors change by income level and home price. 

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This 1907 home on a spacious lot in New Jersey had many beautiful details, including walnut millwork and original molding. But those details had aged past the point of rescue. So the homeowners reached out to designer Anastasia Harrison of AHD&Co to help update the home while honoring its roots. Harrison, who uses Houzz Pro business software, started by taking a piece of original stained walnut to a millworker and creating a match for new rich walnut cabinets in the kitchen. A new curved island has reeded detailing that complements reeded lighting and glass cabinet doors.

Elsewhere, fresh elements like a salmon pink paint for that original molding in the dining room, brick-look porcelain tile in a herringbone pattern for the mudroom and a light-filled en suite bathroom in a former sunroom ensure this home will remain timeless for years to come.

Read more and save photos



This article was originally published by a www.houzz.com . Read the Original article here. .


Expectations of the Federal Reserve beginning the first in a series of rate reductions kept potential home buyers in a holding pattern in August.

Sales of newly built, single-family homes in August fell 4.7% after an unusually strong July, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.  August new home sales registered a 716,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, after an upwardly revised estimate of 751,000 for July.

Despite the slip in August, the three-month moving average for new home sales is at its highest level since March of 2022. New home sales are up 4% on a year-to-date basis through August.

Builder sentiment and future sales expectations are improving as the Federal Reserve begins a credit easing cycle. However, due to the mortgage interest lock-in effect, declining interest rates will mean rising existing home inventories and some additional new competition for home builders.

While a 7.8 months’ supply may be considered elevated in normal market conditions, there is currently only a 4.1 months’ supply of existing single-family homes on the market. Combined, new and existing total months’ supply remains below historic norms at approximately 4.7, although this measure is expected to increase as more home sellers test the market in the months ahead.

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed, or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the August reading of 716,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

New single-family home inventory increased 1.7% to 467,000 in August, a 7.8 months’ supply at the current sales pace.  Completed, ready to occupy inventory increased to 105,000 homes, which is the highest level since 2009. However, this share makes up only 22% of new home inventory.

Median new home price fell back to $420,600, down 4.6% from a year ago due to builder price incentives amid multidecade highs for housing affordability challenges. The Census data reveals a gain for new home sales priced below $300,000, which made up 18% of new home sales in August compared to 12% a year ago.

Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are up in all four regions, rising 2.1% in the Northeast, 21.9% in the Midwest, 0.8% in the South and 4.7% in the West.

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