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Mortgage rates dropped significantly at the start of March before stabilizing, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage settling at 6.65%, according to Freddie Mac. This marks a 19-basis-point (bps) decline from February. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell by 20 bps to 5.83%.

The drop in long-term borrowing costs was driven by a 24-bps decline in the 10-year Treasury yield, which averaged 4.28% in March. This decline provided a boost to the housing market—new home sales increased 5.1% year-over-year in February, while the participation of first-time homebuyer of existing homes rose 26% over the same period. However, existing home sales saw a slight dip from last February.

The decrease in Treasury yields reflects growing concerns about an economic slowdown, particularly as shifts in tariff policy weaken consumer confidence. Despite this, the labor market remained resilient in February, posting steady job gains even as the unemployment rate ticked up slightly. The strength of upcoming jobs reports will be critical in assessing whether recession risks are intensifying.

At the latest FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but revised its 2025 economic projections: expected GDP growth was lowered to 1.7% (down from 2.1% in December 2024) and the projected unemployment rate was raised to 4.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from previous estimates.

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The worst on record rental affordability conditions, depleted “excess” savings of the pandemic era, and high mortgage rates halted the post-pandemic trend of young adults moving out of parental homes. The share of adults ages 25-34 living with parents or parents-in-law hovered just above 19% in 2023, stagnant from 2022, according to NAHB’s analysis of the 2023 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS). While this percentage is the second lowest since 2011, the share remains elevated by historical standards. Regionally, Southern and Northeastern states register some of the highest shares of young adults remaining in parental homes.

Traditionally, young adults ages 25 to 34 make up around half of all first-time homebuyers. Consequently, the number and share of young adults in this age group that choose to stay with their parents, or parents-in-law, has profound implications for household formation, housing demand, and the housing market.

The current share of 19.2% translates into 8.5 million young adults living in homes of their parents or parents-in-law. In contrast, less than 12% of young adults ages 25 to 34, or 4.6 million, lived with parents in 2000. The share peaked in 2017-2018 at 22% when the ACS recorded over 9.7 million adults ages 25 to 34 living with parents.

While the national average share hovers around 19.2%, more than a quarter of young adults ages 25-34 remain in parental homes in California (26.5%), New Jersey (26.3%), and Hawaii (25.2%). Delaware (23.2%), Maryland (22.7%), Florida (22.4%) and New York (21.8%) are next on the list. At the opposite end of the spectrum are states with less than one in ten young adults living with parents. The fast-growing North Dakota records the nation’s lowest share of 5%, while the neighboring South Dakota registers 7%. In the District of Columbia, known for its relatively stable job market, less than 7.5% of young adults live with their parents. The cluster of central US states completes the nation’s list with the lowest percentages of young adults remaining in parental homes – Nebraska (8.4%), Iowa (8.5), and Wyoming (9.6%).

The elevated shares of young adults living with parents in high-cost coastal areas point to prohibitively expensive housing costs as one of the reasons for keeping young adults in parental homes. The statistical analysis confirms that states with higher shares of cost-burdened owners and renters living in unaffordable homes (i.e., paying 30 percent or more of income on housing) register higher shares of young adults living with parents. In particular, renters’ housing cost burdens explain half of the cross-state variation in the shares of young adults living in parental homes.

Multigeneration living, which is more prevalent among ethnic households, can also contribute to the elevated shares of young adults living with parents. This can be particularly relevant in the Southern states with higher shares of Hispanic households. However, the statistical analysis shows that while the correlation is positive, prevalence of Hispanic households does not carry any additional explanatory power once housing cost burdens are accounted for.

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