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Job growth decelerated significantly in October, driven by the effects of strikes and hurricanes. As stated in this month’s job report, October data are “the first collected since Hurricanes Helene and Milton struck the United States”. Despite lower monthly job gains, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, indicating the labor market remains solid.

In October, wage growth remained unchanged. Wages grew at a 4.0% year-over-year (YOY) growth rate, down 0.3 percentage points from a year ago. Wage growth is outpacing inflation, which typically occurs as productivity increases.

National Employment

According to the Employment Situation Summary reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 12,000 in October, down sharply from a downwardly revised increase of 223,000 jobs in September, marking the smallest monthly job gain in years. The estimates for the previous two months were revised lower. The monthly change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 81,000, from +159,000 to +78,000, while the change for September was revised down by 31,000 from +254,000 to +223,000. Combined, the revisions were 112,000 lower than previously reported.

In the first ten months of 2024, 1,701,000 jobs were created. Additionally, monthly employment growth averaged 170,000 per month, compared to the 251,000 monthly average gain for 2023. The Fed’s easing cycle began on September 18, marking the end of a period of restrictive monetary policy. The U.S. economy has created about 8 million jobs since March 2022, when the Fed enacted the first interest rate hike of this cycle.

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1% in October. While the number of employed persons decreased by 368,000, the number of unemployed persons rose by 150,000.

Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate—the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already holding a job—decreased by one percentage point to 62.6%. However, for people aged between 25 and 54, the participation rate declined for the third straight month to 83.5%. This rate still exceeds the pre-pandemic level of 83.1%. Meanwhile, the overall labor force participation rate remains below its pre-pandemic levels of 63.3% at the beginning of 2020.

In October, employment continued to trend up in health care (+52,000) and government (+40,000). Temporary help for business and professional services lost 49,000 jobs. Manufacturing employment fell by 46,000 in October. The BLS noted that a decline of 44,000 in transportation equipment manufacturing was “largely due to strike activity.”

Construction Employment

Employment in the overall construction sector increased by 8,000 in October, after 27,000 gains in September. While residential construction shed 5,300 jobs, non-residential construction employment added 13,500 jobs for the month.

Residential construction employment now stands at 3.4 million in October, broken down as 957,000 builders and 2.4 million residential specialty trade contractors. The 6-month moving average of job gains for residential construction was 3,000 a month. Over the last 12 months, home builders and remodelers added 44,500 jobs on a net basis. Since the low point following the Great Recession, residential construction has gained 1,388,200 positions.

In October, the unemployment rate for construction workers rose to 5.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unemployment rate for construction workers has remained at a relatively lower level, after reaching 15.3% in April 2020 due to the housing demand impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .


Home Buying

The bad news: They broke records in July. The good news: The increases were modest and are less than what buyers paid in June.

“With the prime selling season behind us, we’re seeing fewer bidding wars, more offers under asking price, and homes that are taking longer to sell,” said Jared Wilk, president of the Greater Boston Association of Realtors. Adobe Stock

The median sales prices for single-family homes and condominiums in Greater Boston broke records for July but were less than what buyers paid in June, according to a report the Greater Boston Association of Realtors released Wednesday.

The median sales price for a single-family in July was $910,000 — $15,000 more compared to July 2023 but $50,000 less than the June 2024 median.

In the condo market, buyers paid a median of $740,000 in July. That’s $2,000 more than they shelled out in July 2023 and $12,000 less than compared with June 2024.

Buyers are enjoying more purchasing power, and “there is some evidence that prices may have reached their ceiling, at least in the near term,” according to the report.

“What we are experiencing at the moment is not a price correction, but rather a softening in prices,” Jared Wilk, the association’s president and a broker with Compass in Wellesley, said in the news release. “With the prime selling season behind us, we’re seeing fewer bidding wars, more offers under asking price, and homes that are taking longer to sell. As a result, sellers have become more flexible, with some agreeing to price reductions in order to sell.”

“Prices also have eased a bit from their peak over the past month, which suggests buyers are finding more room for negotiation,” Wilk added, “and that’s giving many a renewed sense of optimism as we approach the fall market.”

Evidence may indicate that prices are capping out, but the median sales price year-to-date is still 7.1 percent higher than at this point in 2023, according to the report.

Data provided by MLSPIN © Domus Analytics under license for the GBARData provided by MLSPIN © Domus Analytics under license for the GBAR

Condo buyers are paying $189 more per square foot than single-home purchasers, according to the report — $630 compared with $441.

Mortgage rates giveth and taketh away

Mortgage rates that have eased from a high of 7.22 percent on May 2 may have played a role in the nearly 15 percent jump in sales and the 10 percent increase in local listings year-over-year in July in the single-family home market.

The available inventory in July was 1.2 months — a disappointing number that suggests that some sellers who don’t want to trade their low mortgage rates for ones in the mid-sixes — are still hesitant to list. Many experts agree that at least a five-month supply of inventory is a healthy market. High mortgage rates also relegate some buyers to the sidelines as the costs ratchet up, siphoning their buying power.

“There’s no denying the fact that sales activity continues to lag behind historic norms, but it’s also worth noting that last month was the busiest one we’ve had for home and condo closings in more than a year,” Wilk said. “Buyers have a larger selection of homes to choose from than they did last summer, and with mortgage rates lower than they were this spring, the market has become increasingly more inviting to those looking to buy.”

Condo sales were down 1.2 percent, but the “months supply” of inventory rose from 1.7 in July 2023 to 2.1 last month.

“Although buyer demand has been slowed by higher interest rates, it continues to outpace the supply of homes for sale,” Wilk said, “and that imbalance has kept upward pressure on selling prices and allowed for continued price appreciation.”

Economic forecasts call for mortgage rates to continue to fall, but not below 6 percent. The average rate ticked up last week to 6.49 percent.

Massachusetts home prices soar

The median sales price for a single-family home in the state jumped 6.6 percent to $650,000 in July, according to a report The Warren Group, a data analytics firm, released Tuesday.

That’s a record for the month, but home prices are losing momentum, according to Cassidy Norton, associate publisher and media relations director for the group: “Interest rates are more than double where they were two years ago, and I’m certain prices would be even higher without those changes. That does lead to a lack of inventory that may have abated price gains somewhat. Unfortunately, the lack of inventory will continue to be the biggest factor driving prices for the foreseeable future.”

Sales were up a modest 0.8 percent.

In Arlington, the median sales price of $1,142,500 for a single-family home in July reflects more than an 11 percent decrease. In Needham, the median sales price was $1,408,000, a jump of 3.9 percent, according to the report.

In the condo market, sales were up 3.2 percent, and the median price rose only 1.8 percent year over year to $565,000.

“The median condo price also reached a new high for July, but prices were down moderately from the previous month,” Norton said. “This could be an early indicator that condo prices are starting to plateau.”

In Quincy, the median sales price for a unit was $485,000, a drop of nearly 5 percent. In Malden, the median sales price for July was $425,000, an increase of 6.3 percent.

Check out the breakdowns by town and county and the recent sales list from The Warren Group.





This article was originally published by a www.boston.com . Read the Original article here. .


CNN
 — 

Realtors across the US are bracing for a seismic shift in the way they do business. Starting August 17, new rules will roll out that overhaul the way Realtors get paid to help people buy and sell their homes.

The changes, which are part of a $418 million settlement announced in March by the powerful trade group the National Association of Realtors, eliminate informal rules that propped up the industry’s traditional payment structure, where home sellers were typically on the hook to pay a 5% or 6% commission, usually split between their agent and the agent representing their home seller.

In the months since the settlement was announced, Realtors across the country have been preparing for the change, attending trainings and poring over the details of new contracts they must sign with prospective homebuyers. Some agents predict the rules will pave the way for new business models and potentially drive many full-service Realtors to leave the industry, while others are more sanguine about the impending changes.

“This is a grand social experiment in an industry at scale,” Leo Pareja, CEO of eXp Realty, one of the largest real estate brokerages in the US, said. “I’m bracing my agents for what I call the ‘messy middle.’ I fully expect a lot of confusion.”

In a statement, NAR’s president, Kevin Sears, said he was confident NAR members would adapt to the changes, which industry analysts have called the biggest change in America’s real estate market in a century.

“These changes help to further empower consumers with clarity and choice when buying and selling a home,” Sears said. As August 17 nears, “I am confident in our members’ abilities to prepare for and embrace this evolution of our industry and help to guide consumers in the new landscape.”

Historically, a seller’s agent charged homesellers a fee, often 5% or 6% of a home’s purchase price, that was intended to be shared with the buyer’s agent. That meant that homesellers could be on the hook for serious cash: A seller of a $1 million home might pay out $60,000 in commissions. Some experts have said that money was baked into homes’ listing prices, inflating the price of homes for sale.

A series of lawsuits alleged this standard practice violated antitrust laws, though the NAR has long argued that the commissions were always negotiable.

Along with a monetary payout, the NAR agreed to two key rule changes as part of an agreement to settle the lawsuits. Both take effect on August 17 and are designed — in theory­ — to shake loose the standard way of paying out commissions.

A judge granted preliminary approval of the NAR’s settlement in April, but the final approval hearing is scheduled for November 26.

The first change prohibits agents’ compensation from being included on multiple listing services, which are centralized databases used by Realtors to share details about homes for sale. Compensation details can still be advertised elsewhere or communicated in person or over the phone, though.

The second change requires buyers’ agents to discuss their compensation upfront. Come August 17, agents working with a prospective homebuyer must now enter into a written buyer agreement before touring a property together. This agreement is designed to inform buyers that they are responsible for paying their own Realtors if a seller chooses not to cover the cost.

However, prior to the changes, Realtors in 18 states were already required to sign buyer agency agreements. Mary Schumann, a Realtor in Minnesota, said that to her, NAR’s changes seem manageable.

“I always tend to wait and see how things shake out before I panic,” Schumann said. “We already do buyers agreements here, and this doesn’t seem to be incredibly different.”

By some estimates, real estate commissions could fall between 25% to 50%, according to a March analysis by TD Cowen Insights. This could pave the way for real estate companies with alternative business models, like flat-fee and discount brokerages, to thrive.

Shelly Cofini, the chief strategy officer at Redy, said she believed the NAR settlement would benefit her company. Redy, which operates nationwide, is a marketplace that allows real estate agents to bid on home listings, meaning agents could pay homesellers for the opportunity to represent them, cutting into their own commissions.

“This is part of this notion of shifting how real estate is always done,” Cofini said. “Because agents are in control of the proposal process, they decide on the cash incentive they’ll offer and they decide on the commission structure they’re willing to offer.”

Companies are seeking to capitalize on the impending changes in other ways, too. Flyhomes operates as a traditional real estate brokerage, but earlier this summer, the company launched an AI chatbot designed to answer questions that a homebuyer might traditionally ask their Realtor.

“Consumers don’t know this is coming,” Flyhomes’ chief strategy officer, Adam Hopson, said of the NAR changes. “When they decide they want to buy a home and they find they have to sign a contract, they may say, ‘whoa, what is this?’ We think this will drive them to find information from other sources. We will be one of those sources.”

Under the old standard, buyers often got representation for free, since their agent’s commissions came from the homeseller’s pocket.

Many Realtors who spoke to CNN said they believe the new set of rules will reward more experienced Realtors and shut out younger agents, since homebuyers may be wary of signing a legally binding agreement that ties them to a more inexperienced Realtor.

At 19, Madison Mathias, a Realtor in Chapin, South Carolina, said she has had to work overtime to dispel preconceived notions about her age to prospective clients, often re-reading contracts at night to ensure she has the details memorized.

Mathias said she thinks some Realtors will leave the industry, but she doesn’t believe age will be a factor.

“I think more agents will fall off because some people don’t like change,” she said. “Being a new agent, I have had some people question me, but I’ve never had somebody not want to work with me because of my time in the business. It’s all about confidence and educating yourself.”

“I’m not really worried about it too much,” she added.



This article was originally published by a www.cnn.com . Read the Original article here. .


HOUSTON – A massive settlement that changes the way homes are bought and sold goes into effect August 17. In the spring, the National Association of Realtors agreed to a $418 million settlement and rule changes to answer a class-action suit alleging a fee conspiracy to inflate broker commissions. 

The settlement is supposed to make home buying more transparent, but adds another complication to an already-tight housing market.

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Houston real estate agent Tricia Turner says tight inventory, high prices, and inflated interest rates are already making home sales a tough-sell for many, “50% of all real estate agents have not sold a single home this year. Not one single home. So, they are already struggling.”

The Houston Association of Realtors reports June sales were down more than 11%, over a year ago. Now, the new settlement rules will add work and costs to would-be buyers.

Before the agreement, when a house went on the market, the seller typically paid the cost of all of the agents involved. It was usually about 6%; 3% for each side, and that information was stipulated on the listing. Specifically, it stipulated how much the buyers agent would receive for finding someone to buy the home. 

That’s what’s changing. 

Now, if you want to buy a home, you’ll have to find your own agent or broker, negotiate how much money they will earn, and sign an agreement every time you come to look at a house.

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It will all mean a lot of extra work just to view a potential purchase, as brokers will have to justify what they earn for what they do. All of it is designed to give buyers and sellers flexibility over what they pay. 

“If you’re a buyers agent, you’re going to want something rather than nothing, so you’re going to have to make the deal work,” says Turner. “(But) those buyers agreements can be amended.  So, just because a buyers agent says, ‘I want you to pay me 2%,’ and the buyer agrees, those can be amended and changed.”

The net-effect is that sellers will generally make a little more money on the sale of their home. Buyers, meantime, will often have to pay for a professional service that was previously rolled-into the deal. Consequently, they’ll want to find someone who knows what they’re doing. That’s where research and recommendations will be vital.



This article was originally published by a www.fox26houston.com . Read the Original article here. .

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