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Existing home sales increased for the first time in five months, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), as improving inventory and declining mortgage rates motivated some buyers to act. Despite these changes, sales remained sluggish and low inventory continued to push up median home prices. However, we expect increased activity in the coming months as mortgage rates continue to moderate. Improving inventory is likely to ease home price growth and enhance affordability.

Homeowners with lower mortgage rates have opted to stay put, avoiding trading existing mortgages for new ones with higher rates. This trend is driving home prices higher and holding back inventory. Mortgage rates are expected to continue to decrease gradually, leading to increased demand (and unlocking lock-in inventory) in the coming quarters. However, that decline is dependent on future inflation and job reports, and especially possible easing by the Federal Reserve.

Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, rose 1.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.95 million in July. This marks the first increase after four months of declines. On a year-over-year basis, sales were still 2.5% lower than a year ago.

The first-time buyer share stayed at 29% in July, identical to June but down from 30% in July 2023. The inventory level rose from 1.32 million in June to 1.33 million units in July and is up 19.8% from a year ago.

At the current sales rate, July unsold inventory sits at a 4.0-months supply, down from 4.1-months last month but up from 3.3-months a year ago. This inventory level remains low compared to balanced market conditions (4.5 to 6 months’ supply) and illustrates the long-run need for more home construction. However, the count of single-family resale homes available for sale is up almost 19.1% on a year-over-year basis.

Homes stayed on the market for an average of 24 days in July, up from 22 days in June and 20 days in July 2023.

The July all-cash sales share was 27% of transactions, down from 28% in June but up from 26% a year ago. All-cash buyers are less affected by changes in interest rates.

The July median sales price of all existing homes was $422,600, up 4.2% from last year. This marked the 13th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. The median condominium/co-op price in July was up 2.7% from a year ago at $367,500. This rate of price growth will slow as inventory increases.

Existing home sales in July were mixed across the four major regions. In the Northeast, South, and West, sales increased by 4.3%, 1.1%, and 1.4%, respectively, while sales in the Midwest remained unchanged. On a year-over-year basis, sales rose in the Northeast (2.1%) and West (1.4%) but fell in the Midwest (-5.2%) and South (-3.8%).

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI rose from 70.9 to 74.3 in June as inventory improved. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales were 2.6% lower than a year ago per NAR data.

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NAHB’s Cost of Housing Index (CHI) highlights the burden that housing costs represent for middle and low-income families. In the second quarter of 2024, the CHI found that a family earning the nation’s median income of $97,800 must spend 38% of its income to cover the mortgage payment on a median-priced new single-family home. Because a typical existing home in the second quarter was more expensive ($422,100) than a typical newly built home ($412,300), the CHI for existing homes was higher, at 39%. 

Low-income families, defined as those earning only 50% of median income, would have to spend 77% of their earnings to pay for a new home and 79% for an existing one.

The latest results reveal that affordability has worsened for existing homes. A typical family needed 39% of its income to pay for a median-priced existing home in the second quarter, up from 36% in the first quarter. A low-income family needed 79% of its income vs. 71% in the previous quarter. In contrast, the CHI and low-income CHI for new homes remained unchanged between the first and second quarters of 2024, at 38% and 77%, respectively.

Additionally, CHI is produced for existing homes in 176 metropolitan areas, breaking down the percentage of a family’s income needed to make a mortgage payment in each area based on the local median existing home price and median income. Percentages are also calculated for low-income families in these markets.

In 14 out of 176 markets in the second quarter, the typical family is severely cost-burdened (must pay more than 50% of their income on a median-priced existing home).  In 89 other markets, such families are cost-burdened (need to pay between 31% and 50%). There are 73 markets where the CHI is 30% of earnings or lower.

The Top Five Severely Cost-Burdened Markets

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif. was the most severely cost-burdened market on the CHI during the second quarter, where 94% of a typical family’s income is needed to make a mortgage payment on an existing home. This was followed by:

• San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, Calif. (79%)
• San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, Calif. (76%)
• Urban Honolulu, Hawaii (76%)
• Naples-Marco Island, Fla. (74%)

Low-income families would have to pay between 147% and 188% of their income in all five of the above markets to cover a mortgage.

The Top Five Least Cost-Burdened Markets

By contrast, Decatur, Ill., was the least cost-burdened market on the CHI, where families needed to spend just 15% of their income to pay for a mortgage on an existing home. Rounding out the least burdened markets are:

• Cumberland, Md.-W.Va. (17%)
• Springfield, Ill. (18%)
• Elmira, N.Y. (18%)
• Peoria, Ill. (19%)
• Binghamton, N.Y. (tied at 19%)

Low-income families in these markets would have to pay between 30% and 39% of their income to cover the mortgage payment for a median priced existing home.

Visit nahb.org/chi for tables and details.

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This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

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