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Builder sentiment improved for the third straight month, and builders expect market conditions will continue to improve with Republicans winning control of the White House and Congress.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 46 in November, up three points from October, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Future sales expectations posted a notable increase in the November reading of builder sentiment.

While builder confidence is improving, the industry still faces many headwinds such as an ongoing shortage of labor and buildable lots along with elevated building material prices. Moreover, while the stock market cheered the election result, the bond market has concerns, as indicated by a rise for long-term interest rates. There is also policy uncertainty in front of the business sector and housing market as the executive branch changes hands.

The latest HMI survey also revealed that 31% of builders cut home prices in November. This share has remained essentially unchanged since July, hovering between 31% and 33%. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5%, slightly below the 6% rate posted in October. The use of sales incentives was 60% in November, slightly down from 62% in October.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All three HMI sub-indices were up in November. The index charting current sales conditions rose two points to 49, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased seven points to 64 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a three-point gain to 32.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased four points to 55, the Midwest moved three points higher to 44, the South edged up one point to 42 and the West held steady at 41. HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi.

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With housing being a key issue for the 2024 election cycle, it is worth analyzing distinct characteristics as well as similarities that housing markets in congressional districts share. The differences start with a substantial variation in homeownership rates across congressional districts.

While the 2023 American Community Survey (ACS) reports that close to two thirds of US households (65.2%) are home owners, there are forty congressional districts where renter households represent the majority. In twelve of these districts, renters account for more than two thirds of households. This list includes eight urban high-density congressional districts in New York, three districts in California and New Jersey’s 8th congressional district. The pattern of urban congressional districts registering lower home ownership rates repeats across the country.

At the other end of the spectrum, there are seven congressional districts with home owners representing over 80% of households. These include three districts in Michigan, two in New York, and one in both Maryland, and Minnesota.

New York stands out with simultaneous congressional districts with the lowest and second highest homeownership rates. Close to 84% of households in New York’s 1st district located in eastern Long Island are home owners. The only other congressional district that registers a higher homeownership rate is Michigan’s 9th congressional district located in the Thumb at 85%.   In contrast, in New York’s urban 13th and 15th districts, home owners comprise a minority of less than 16% and 13%, respectively.

California is another example of substantial variation of homeownership rates across congressional districts within a state. In California’s 41st district in Riverside County, 3 out of 4 households are home owners. At the same time, in California’s 34th district in the city of Los Angeles, only 22% of households live in a home they own. 

Population density, racial and ethnical makeup, as well as varying cost of ownership, all contribute to substantial variation in homeownership rates across the US congressional districts.

Additional housing data for your congressional district are provided by the US Census Bureau here.

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