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The total market share of non-site built single-family homes (modular and panelized) was just 3% of single-family homes in 2023, according to completion data from the Census Bureau Survey of Construction data and NAHB analysis. This is a slight increase from the 2% share in 2022. This share has been steadily declining since the early-2000s despite the high-level of interest for non-site built construction. This low market share in fact runs counter to some media commentary on off-site construction suggesting recent gains. Nonetheless, there exists potential for market share gains in the years ahead due to the need to increase productivity in the residential construction sector.

In 2023, there were 27,000 total single-family units built using modular (12,000) and panelized/pre-cut (15,000) construction methods, out of a total of 999,000 single-family homes completed. It is worth noting that the Census definitions of off-site construction are relatively narrow. In a separate survey, the Home Innovation Research Labs Survey of U.S. Home Builders has a higher share for panelized construction (5-12%) due to a wider definition of “panelized” construction.

While the Census-measured market share is small, there exists potential for expansion. This 3% market share for 2023 represents a decline from years prior to the Great Recession. In 1998, 7% of single-family completions were modular (4%) or panelized (3%). This marked the largest share for the 1992-2023 period.

One notable regional concentration is found in the Northeast and Midwest. These two regions tie for the highest market share of homes built using non-site build construction methods. In the Northeast, 5% (4,000 homes) of the region’s 61,000 housing units were completed using non-site built construction methods. At the same time, in the Midwest, 5% market share (6,000 homes) of the region’s 126,000 housing units were completed using non-site build construction methods.

With respect to multifamily construction, approximately 7% of multifamily buildings (properties, not units) were built using modular and panelized methods, marking the highest level in the last two decades. This is significantly higher than the 2% share in 2022 and 1% share in 2018-2021. It is notable that modular construction methods accounted for 5% of this share, whereas in previous years it was only panelized construction methods that made up the small share of non-site build methods in multifamily construction.  Prior to last year, the highest levels of modular and panelized methods share in multifamily construction was in 2000 and 2011, where 5% of multifamily buildings were constructed with modular (1%) or panelized construction methods (4%).

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In 2023, the majority of homes started featured laundry connections on the first floor (72%), according to the Census’s Survey of Construction. Laundry located on the second floor or higher was the second most prevalent at 26%. The basement, garage, and other locations all had a 1% or lower share.  

In NAHB’s What Home Buyer’s Really Want, home buyers are surveyed on where they would like their laundry located. While the first floor remained the most desired location for laundry at 60%, preferences diverged significantly for other locations. The basement was the second most popular choice at 17%, followed by the garage at 15%, and only 7% for the second floor or higher. 

This comparison highlights a disconnect between what builders are offering and what buyers are seeking. While builders are largely opting for laundry connections on the first or second floor, a notable portion of buyers prefer the basement or garage. This variance is shown in the chart below.

There are also regional differences in where laundry is placed. The first floor was the most prevalent across every division but ranged from 91% in West South Central to 59% in the South Atlantic. Second-floor laundry was highest in the Pacific division at 43% but was lowest in the West South Central at 8%.  

The West North Central had a 13% share of homes with the laundry room in the basement, the only division with a share above 5%; They are also the only division with most homes having a full or partial basement. No regions had over a 2% share of laundry located in the garage. 

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NAHB’s featured topic for the second quarter HBGI reveals that 17.5% of single-family and 8.6% of multifamily construction takes place in second home areas. Recent NAHB analysis found that the total count of second homes across the US was 6.5 million, which accounts for 4.6% of the total housing stock. For this analysis, a second home area is a county that has a second home share greater than 10.3% of the county’s total housing stock (these counties fall within the 75th and above percentile of the second home stock share distribution).  There are 788 counties that are considered a second home area based on this definition.

Single-family

Single-family permit data shows that the market share for construction in second home areas has grown by over four percentage points in the past nine years. The earliest data, which is the fourth quarter of 2015, shows that second home areas had a market share of 13.2%. As of the second quarter of 2024, the market share for this geography increased to 17.5%. However, this latest reading is down from a peak of 18.3% in the first quarter of 2023.  

The peak growth rate in construction for second homes areas was at 38.5% in the third quarter of 2021. The first recorded decline in the growth rate occurred in the third quarter of 2022. This downward growth rate was followed by five quarters of declines until the first quarter of 2024.   Second home areas have averaged a growth rate of 9.1% between the fourth quarter of 2015 and the second quarter of 2024, while non-second home areas averaged single-family a growth rate of 5.1% over the same period.  

Multifamily

Although smaller, the market share for second home areas has also grown for multifamily construction. The market share was 5.5% in the fourth quarter of 2015 and is now 8.6%, a 3.1 percentage point increase. This increase in market share has been more volatile than single-family, as growth in construction has not been as consistent for multifamily in second home areas. 

There have been three periods where construction growth for multifamily experienced declines in these areas, such as in 2017 and early 2021. The third period of decline is ongoing, as there have been two consecutive quarters where the growth rate has been negative to start 2024. The latest growth rate is a11.8% decline. This is down from a peak of 53.1% in the third quarter of 2022, as multifamily construction has slowed nationwide. 

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Today’s jobs report and the newly released preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicate that the U.S. labor market is slowing from its overheated state in 2021 and 2022 but remains stable. Among all sectors, construction led the August job gains, adding 34,000 jobs to payrolls.

Additionally, wage growth accelerated in August. Wages grew at a 3.8% year-over-year (YOY) growth rate, down 0.7 percentage points from a year ago. Wage growth is outpacing inflation, which typically occurs as productivity increases.

National Employment

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, following a downwardly revised increase of 89,000 jobs in July, as reported in the Employment Situation Summary. The estimates for the previous two months were revised lower. The monthly change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down by 61,000, from +179,000 to +118,000, while the change for July was revised down by 25,000 from +114,000 to +89,000. Combined, the revisions were 86,000 lower than the original estimates.

Despite restrictive monetary policy, about 7.9 million jobs have been created since March 2022, when the Fed enacted the first interest rate hike of this cycle. In the first eight months of 2024, 1,475,000 jobs were created. Additionally, monthly employment growth averaged 184,000 per month, compared with the 251,000 monthly average gain for 2023.

In August, the unemployment rate eased slightly to 4.2%, from 4.3% in July. The August decrease in the unemployment rate reflected the decrease in the number of persons unemployed (-48,000) and the increase in the number of persons employed (+168,000).

Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate—the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already holding a job—remained at 62.7%. However, for people aged between 25 and 54, the participation rate dipped slightly to 83.9%. This rate exceeds the pre-pandemic level of 83.1%. Meanwhile, the overall labor force participation rate is still below its pre-pandemic levels when it stood at 63.3% at the beginning of 2020.

For industry sectors, construction (+34,000), health care (+31,000), and social assistance (+13,000) had job gains in August, while manufacturing lost 24,000 jobs. Employment in other major industries showed little change over the month.

Construction Employment

Employment in the overall construction sector in August (+34,000) experienced an increase, from the 13,000 job gains in July. While residential construction gained 5,600 jobs, non-residential construction employment added 28,300 jobs for the month.

Residential construction employment now stands at 3.4 million in August, broken down as 951,000 builders and 2.4 million residential specialty trade contractors. The 6-month moving average of job gains for residential construction was 5,667 a month. Over the last 12 months, home builders and remodelers added 63,100 jobs on a net basis. Since the low point following the Great Recession, residential construction has gained 1,385,000 positions.

In August, the unemployment rate for construction workers declined to 3.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unemployment rate for construction workers has remained at a relatively lower level, after reaching 15.3% in April 2020, due to the housing demand impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Due to slowing home construction and elevated interest rates, the count of open construction sector jobs continued to decline in July, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). However, this shift lower is also consistent with a cooler overall labor market, which is a positive sign for future inflation readings and the interest rate outlook.

In July, after revisions, the number of open jobs for the overall economy decreased slightly from 7.91 million to 7.67 million. This is notably smaller than the 8.81 million estimate reported a year ago. Previous NAHB analysis indicated that this number had to fall below 8 million on a sustained basis for the Federal Reserve to feel more comfortable about labor market conditions and their potential impacts on inflation. With estimates now measurably below 8 million, interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are at hand (Indeed, the yield curve reversed its inversion for the first time since June 2022 today, although this reversion can also be a bond market signal for some concern for future macro data).

As the Fed eases monetary policy, the demand for new construction will expand. Thus, a reversal for the current soft readings for construction labor will occur in the quarters ahead. This means the underlying skilled labor shortage is likely to persist during the coming years.

In July, the number of open construction sector jobs shifted notably lower from 299,000 in June to 248,000. Elements of the construction sector have slowed as elevated interest rates held, most notably multifamily development. This slowing has somewhat reduced demand for construction workers, lowering the job opening count for the construction industry. The open job count was 351,000 a year ago.

The construction job openings rate fell to 2.9% in July, the lowest rate since March 2020. The job openings rate has trended lower as the number of single-family and multifamily residences under construction has declined. This is a cyclical effect that will likely reverse later in 2025.

The layoff rate in construction increased to 2.1% in July from 1.3% in June as the labor market slows. The quits rate in construction increased to 2.1% in July from 1.6% in June. The rise in the layoff rate is consistent with a slowing construction labor market.

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Private residential construction spending fell 0.4% in July, according to the Census Construction Spending data. Nevertheless, spending remained 7.7% higher compared to a year ago. The monthly decline in total private construction spending for July was largely due to reduced spending on single-family construction. Spending on single-family construction plunged by 1.9% in July, following a dip of 1.1% in June. This marks the fourth consecutive monthly decrease. Elevated mortgage interest rates have cooled the housing market, dampening home builder confidence and new home starts. Despite these challenges, spending on single-family construction was still 4% higher than it was a year earlier.

Multifamily construction spending stayed flat in July after a dip of 0.6% in June. Year-over-year, spending on multifamily construction declined 6.7%, as an elevated level of apartments under construction is being completed. Private residential improvement spending increased 1.2% in July and was 18.3% higher compared to a year ago.

The NAHB construction spending index is shown in the graph below (the base is January 2000). The index illustrates how spending on single-family construction has slowed down the pace since early 2024 under the pressure of elevated interest rates. Multifamily construction spending growth slowed down after the peak in July 2023, while improvement spending increased its pace since late 2023.

Spending on private nonresidential construction was up 4.5% over a year ago. The annual private nonresidential spending increase was mainly due to higher spending for the class of manufacturing ($39.7 billion), followed by the power category ($1 billion).

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Despite high mortgage rates, the lack of resale homes and pent-up demand drove solid growth in single-family permits across nearly all regions in the second quarter. In contrast, multifamily construction permit activity experienced declines across all regions for the second quarter of 2024. These trends are tabulated from the recent release of the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) Home Building Geography Index (HBGI).

Single-Family

All markets for single-family construction saw higher growth in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. In contrast to the second quarter of 2023, which experienced declines across all markets, this year shows a clear reversal. Large metro core counties had the largest growth rate for the second consecutive quarter at 17.6%, while micro counties continued to have the lowest for the third straight quarter, at 3.4%.

Looking at single-family HBGI market shares, small metro core counties continued to have the largest market share at 28.9%. Large metro suburban counties are the only other market with over 20% market share, at 25.0% in the second quarter. The smallest market share continued to be non metro/micro counties at 4.3%. However, this market remains almost a percentage point higher than what it was pre-pandemic in 2019.

Multifamily

In the multifamily sector, the HBGI year-over-year growth continued to post declines for all markets in the second quarter. This can be contributed to high levels of multifamily units under construction and tighter financial conditions. Only two markets had larger declines than the first quarter, with large metro suburban counties down 21.1% and non metro/micro counties down 14.8%. Notably, non metro/micro counties were the last market to experience a decline in multifamily construction. These counties were an area of growth in the second, third and fourth quarters of last year while all other markets experience declines or negligible growth.

Multifamily market shares in the HBGI remained similar to the first quarter, with large metro core counties having the largest market share at 40.1%. The smallest market was non metro/micro counties, with a 1.1% market share.

The second quarter of 2024 HBGI data along with an interactive HBGI map can be found at http://nahb.org/hbgi.

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The cost per square foot of a single-family home declines systematically as the home becomes larger, according to NAHB analysis of two recent data sources. In microeconomics, unit costs that decline as a business operation increases in size are called economies of scale.

In home building, economies of scale may exist in several forms. It is conceivable, for instance, that homes cost less if they are built in larger subdivisions, or by larger companies, where design costs may be spread over a large number of production units. This post, however, focuses on economies of scale at the level of an individual home. In other words, does cost per square foot decline, all else equal, as a home increases in size?

The answer is yes, according to NAHB tabulation of data from the Survey of Construction (conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau with partial funding from the Department of Housing and Urban Development). Last Friday’s post reported on how the sale price per square foot of new single-family detached homes varies across time and geography. The chart below shows how it varies with the size of the home (measured in square footage of finished floor space). It is easy to see that the median price declines systematically, from a high of $200 per square foot for homes under 1,200 square feet to a low of only $132 per square foot for homes with 5,000 square feet or more.

There could be several reasons for this. A conventional explanation is that some components of construction cost—for example, design, regulatory and waste disposal costs—may be more or less fixed and not change much with house size.

The above sale price numbers are calculated after subtracting the value of the improved lot, but do not otherwise control for differences in quality or amenities present in the homes. One of the private services that does carefully control for quality and amenities when estimating construction costs per square foot is RSMeans. The chart below shows the base cost per square foot for a two-story home in each of the four RSMeans quality tiers: Economy, Average, Custom and Luxury.

Within each tier, characteristics of the home (other than square footage) are held constant. The “Average” two-story home, for instance, has a simple design from standard plans, no basement, a kitchen, single full bathroom, asphalt shingles on the roof, wood framing, wood siding, gypsum wallboard interior, and average quality materials and workmanship. As in the previous chart, cost per square foot declines systematically as the house gets bigger. Although the rate of decline varies, at the low end of the size scale, doubling the size of the home reduces the base cost per square foot by somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 percent. Interested readers may consult RSMeans for further details.

The bottom line is that economies of scale are ubiquitous in new single-family homes throughout both the Census sale price and private cost estimating data. This is significant due to the volume of queries NAHB fields about construction costs. Almost invariably, the queries ask for cost per square foot. To avoid large errors, it is important the requesters realize that the number will change depending on the size of the home. If you apply cost per square foot for a 3,000 square-foot home to a home with only 1,500 square feet, for instance, you will drastically underestimate the home’s total cost. Ideally, this post will be able to serve as a reference in these situations.

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Median square foot prices (excluding record-high improved lot values) for new single-family detached (SFD) homes started in 2023 remained largely stable, according to NAHB’s analysis of the latest Survey of Construction data. For custom, or contractor-built, homes, the median price was $162 per square foot of floor space, not significantly different from $156 in 2022. For spec starts, after excluding lot values, the median was $150 per square foot of floor area. There remains a significant regional variation in square foot prices. In the spec market, after excluding lot values, median prices ranged from $262 per square foot in New England to $133 in the East South Central division.

Contract prices of custom homes do not include the value of an improved lot as these homes are built on the owner’s land (with either the owner or a contractor acting as a general contractor). Consequently, contract prices are typically reported as lower than the sale prices of spec homes. To make the comparison more meaningful, the cost of lot development is excluded from sale prices in this analysis.

The recent modest square foot price changes marked a sharp decline from the double-digit price hikes that characterized home building in the post-pandemic environment. Just a year prior, in 2022, increases for square foot prices in new SFD homes were approaching 20%, more than doubling the historically high U.S. inflation rate of 8%. The deceleration for median square foot prices reflects relatively stable building material prices and slower growth in home building wages in 2023. The shifts towards cost-effective methods, such as building homes on slabs rather than with full or partial basements, also contributed to decelerating median square foot prices.

In the for-sale market, the New England division registered the highest and fastest rising median square foot prices. Half of new for-sale SFD homes started here in 2023 were sold at prices exceeding $262 per square foot of floor area, paid on top of the most expensive lot values in the nation. After showing slower appreciation in 2022-2023, the Pacific division came in second, with median prices of $216 per square foot.

The most economical SFD spec homes were started in the South region, where the median sale prices per square foot were below the national median of $150. The East South Central division is home to the least expensive for-sale homes. Half of all for-sale SFD homes started here in 2023 registered square foot prices of $133 or lower, paid on top of the most economical lot values in the country. The other two divisions in the South – West South Central and South Atlantic –registered median prices of $144 per square foot, the second lowest in the nation.

Because square foot prices in this analysis exclude the cost of developed lot, highly variant land values cannot explain the regional differences in square foot prices. However, overly restrictive zoning practices, more stringent construction codes and higher other regulatory costs undoubtedly contribute to higher per square foot prices. Regional differences in the types of homes, prevalent features and materials used in construction also contribute to price differences. In the South, for example, lower square foot prices partially reflect less frequent regional occurrence of costly new home features such as basements.

In the custom home market, new contractor-built SFD homes in New England are by far the most expensive to build. Half of custom SFD homes started in New England in 2023 registered prices greater than $233 per square foot of floor area. The East North Central division came in second with the median of $199 per square foot of floor space. The median custom square foot price in the neighboring Mid Atlantic division was $183 per square foot.

The Mountain division had similarly high custom square foot prices. Half of custom SFD started here in 2023 had prices of $184 per square foot or higher. The corresponding median price in the neighboring Pacific was $167 per square foot.

The West South Central and South Atlantic divisions are where the most economical custom homes were started in 2023 with half of new custom homes registering prices at or below $136 and $138 per square foot of floor space, respectively. The remaining division in the South – East South Central – recorded slightly higher median square foot contract prices of $145 – still below the national median of $162.

Typically, contractor-built custom homes are more expensive per square foot than for-sale homes after excluding improved lot values. Over the last two decades, this custom home premium averaged slightly above 9%, suggesting that new custom home buyers are not only willing to wait longer to move into a new home, but also pay extra for pricier features and materials.

However, these custom home premiums (see the chart below) largely disappeared in the post-pandemic environment characterized by supply chain disruptions, skyrocketing building materials costs and home prices setting new records monthly. In 2023, the custom home premium averaged 8%, close to its historic norm, suggesting that this recent trend reversed, and once again custom home buyers are likely to pay more for pricier features and materials.

The NAHB estimates in this post are based on the Survey of Construction (SOC) data. The survey information comes from interviews of builders and owners of the selected new houses. The reported prices are medians, meaning that half of all builders reported higher per square foot prices and the other half reported prices lower than the median. While the reported median prices cannot reflect the price variability within a division, and even less so within a metro area, they, nevertheless, highlight the regional differences in square foot prices.

For the square footage statistics, the SOC uses all completely finished floor space, including space in basements and attics with finished walls, floors, and ceilings. This does not include a garage, carport, porch, unfinished attic or utility room, or any unfinished area of the basement.

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The percentage of new apartment units that were absorbed within three months of completion rose from a decade low 42% to 53% in the first quarter of 2024, according to the Census Bureau’s latest release of the Survey of Market Absorption of New Multifamily Units (SOMA). The SOMA survey covers new units in multifamily residential buildings with five or more units. The absorption rate within three months for condominiums and cooperative units also rose over the quarter, up from 63% to 69%.

Apartments

The percentage of apartments absorbed within three months has fallen significantly from its peak of 75% in the third quarter of 2021, as shown in the graph above. Currently, the rate stands at 53% which is coupled with an uptick in completions, as SOMA estimates show a historically high level of completions at 99,120 units in the first quarter of 2024. This is well above the level of completions a year ago, which stood at 83,140. The pace of multifamily units being completed has picked up, as many units under construction over the past year are reaching the market. Since the first quarter of 2022, completions have been above 75,000 for eight consecutive quarters, as seen in the graph below.

Additionally, SOMA reports absorption rates within six-months, nine-months, and 12-months of completion. The absorption rates for all time periods follow similar downward trends as the number of apartments has ticked upwards over the past two years. For apartments completed in the 4th quarter of 2023, the absorption rate within six months of completion was 71%, down from a peak of 88% in the third quarter of 2021.

For the nine-month period, the absorption rate of apartments completed in the third quarter of 2023 fell to 84% down from the previous quarter’s completions of 88%. This rate also peaked at 96% in the same quarter as the other periods, the third quarter of 2021.

Finally, apartment units completed in the second quarter of 2023 were 94% absorbed within a year following completion. The trend remains the same for the 12-month period as the other time periods, as it peaked in the third quarter of 2021 at 98%.

Condominiums and Cooperative Units

The absorption rate for new condominiums and cooperative units rose to 69% for the quarter. However, this was 10 percentage points lower than absorption rate of the same quarter last year.

Total completions of new condominiums and cooperative units, according to SOMA, fell to the lowest level since the first quarter of 2022 marking 3,312 completed units. Quarterly completions of these units peaked in the second quarter of 2018, at 7,996 completions.

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