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Townhouse construction expanded 10% during 2024, outpacing the rest of the single-family home building market.

According to NAHB analysis of the most recent Census data of Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, during the fourth quarter of 2024, single-family attached starts totaled 44,000. Over the last four quarters (2024 as a whole), townhouse construction starts totaled a strong 174,000 homes, which is 10% higher than the prior four-quarter period (158,000 in 2023). Townhouses made up 19% of single-family housing starts for the fourth quarter of the year, a data series high.

Using a one-year moving average, the market share of newly-built townhouses stood at 17.3% of all single-family starts for the fourth quarter. With recent gains, the four-quarter moving average market share is near the highest on record, for data going back to 1985.

Prior to the current cycle, the peak market share of the last two decades for townhouse construction was set during the first quarter of 2008, when the percentage reached 14.6% on a one-year moving average basis. This high point was set after a fairly consistent increase in the share beginning in the early 1990s.

The long-run prospects for townhouse construction are positive given growing numbers of homebuyers looking for medium-density residential neighborhoods, such as urban villages that offer walkable environments and other amenities. Where it can be zoned, it can be built.

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Single-family built-for-rent construction posted year-over-year declines for the fourth quarter of 2024, as a higher cost of financing crowded out development activity. This slowdown is similar to the deceleration of multifamily construction in recent quarters.

According to NAHB’s analysis of data from the Census Bureau’s Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, there were approximately 15,000 single-family built-for-rent (SFBFR) starts during the fourth quarter of 2024. This is 38% lower than the fourth quarter of 2023. Over the last four quarters (2024 as a whole), 83,000 such homes began construction, which is an 8% increase compared to the 77,000 estimated SFBFR starts in the four quarters prior to that period (2023 as a whole).

The SFBFR market is a source of inventory amid challenges over housing affordability and downpayment requirements in the for-sale market, particularly during a period when a growing number of people want more space and a single-family structure. Single-family built-for-rent construction differs in terms of structural characteristics compared to other newly-built single-family homes, particularly with respect to home size. However, investor demand for single-family homes, both existing and new, has cooled with higher interest rates.

Given the relatively small size of this market segment, the quarter-to-quarter movements typically are not statistically significant. The current four-quarter moving average of market share (8%) is nonetheless higher than the historical average of 2.7% (1992-2012).

Importantly, as measured for this analysis, the estimates noted above include only homes built and held by the builder for rental purposes. The estimates exclude homes that are sold to another party for rental purposes, which NAHB estimates may represent another three to five percent of single-family starts based on industry surveys.

The Census data notes an elevated share of single-family homes built as condos (non-fee simple), with this share averaging more than 4% over recent quarters. Some, but certainly not all, of these homes will be used for rental purposes. Additionally, it is theoretically possible some single-family built-for-rent units are being counted in multifamily starts, as a form of “horizontal multifamily,” given these units are often built on a single plat of land. However, spot checks by NAHB with permitting offices indicate no evidence of this data issue occurring.

With the onset of the Great Recession and declines for the homeownership rate, the share of built-for-rent homes increased in the years after the recession. While the market share of SFBFR homes is small, it has clearly expanded. Given affordability challenges in the for-sale market, the SFBFR market will likely retain an elevated market share. However, in the near-term, SFBFR construction is likely to slow until the return on new deals improves.

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The share of self-employed in construction remains just under 23%, a new post-pandemic norm. While this is significantly higher than an economy-wide average of 10% of the employed labor force, for construction, these rates are historically low. Across the nation, construction self-employment rates range from 38% in Maine to 13% in Nevada.

As of 2023, close to 2.6 million of workers employed in construction are self-employed, according to the latest American Community Survey (ACS). While the industry’s payroll employment surpassed the historic highs of the home building boom of the mid-2000s, the number of self-employed remains below the peak of 2006 when over a quarter of the construction labor force was self-employed.

Declining self-employment rates in construction coincide with the declining share of tradesmen in construction and potentially reflect structural changes in the construction labor force, such as a shift towards larger construction firms that are better equipped to invest into new technologies and absorb higher overhead costs.

Partially, the downward trend in construction self-employment rates since the Housing Bust reflects the counter-cyclical nature of self-employment. Under normal circumstances, self-employment rates rise during an economic downturn and fall during an expansion. This presumably reflects a common practice among builders to downsize payrolls when construction activity is declining. In contrast, builders and trade contractors offer better terms for employment and attract a larger pool of laborers to be employees rather than self-employed when workflow is steady and rising.   Potentially reflecting the counter-cyclical nature of construction self-employment, the current self-employment rates are 3.4 percentage points lower compared to the peak rate of the Great Recession.

For similar reasons, persistent labor shortages that plagued the industry during the last decade likely have contributed to the decline in self-employment rates. Ostensibly, to minimize construction delays, builders and trade contractors would be willing to offer better payroll terms to secure employees when finding experienced craftsmen is a challenge.

Since the 2020 ACS data are not reliable due to the data collection issues experienced during the early lockdown stages of the pandemic, we can only compare the pre-pandemic 2019 and post-pandemic 2021-2022 data (hence the omitted 2020 data in the charts above). As a result, it is not clear what accounted for the post-pandemic bump in self-employment. One answer is that   self-employed workers in construction managed to remain employed during the short COVID-19 recession or recovered their jobs faster afterwards, compared to private payroll workers. Another possibility is that the booming residential construction sector attracted self-employed workers from other more vulnerable or slow recovering industries, including commercial construction.

Examining cross-state variation provides additional insights into construction self-employment rates. The New England states and Montana register some of the highest self-employment shares. In Maine, 38% of construction workers are self-employed. The share is similarly high in Vermont where more than a third of workers are self-employed, 36%. In Connecticut and Rhode Island, 28% of workers are self-employed. In Montana, the share is 30%.

The New England states are where it takes longer to build a house.  Because of the short construction season and longer times to complete a project, specialty trade contractors in these states have fewer workers on their payrolls. The 2022 Economic Census data show that specialty trade contractors in Vermont and Maine have some of the smallest payrolls in the nation with five workers on average. Only contractors in Montana have smaller payrolls, averaging less than 5 workers. At the same time, the national average is over nine workers. As a result, independent entrepreneurs in New England and Montana tend to complete a greater share of work, which helps explain the high self-employment shares in these states.

The Mountain division has states with the highest and lowest self-employment rates simultaneously. Montana and Colorado, where more than a quarter of workers are self-employed, round up the list of states with the highest self-employment rates. At the same time, Nevada registers one of the lowest (13%) self-employment rates in construction and takes the place at the opposite end of the list. Only Washington, DC has a lower share of self-employed, 9%. The substantial differences likely reflect a predominance of home building in Montana and Colorado and a higher prevalence of commercial construction, that has larger payroll employment and, presumably, relies less heavily on self-employed.

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Prices for inputs to new residential construction—excluding capital investment, labor, and imports—were up 1.2% in January according to the most recent Producer Price Index (PPI) report published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Producer Price Index measures prices that domestic producers receive for their goods and services, this differs from the Consumer Price Index which measures what consumers pay and includes both domestic products as well as imports.

The inputs to the New Residential Construction Price Index grew 1.1% from January of last year. The index can be broken into two components—the goods component increased 2.1% over the year, while services decreased 0.3%. For comparison, the total final demand index, which measures all goods and services across the economy, increased 3.5% over the year, with final demand with respect to goods up 2.3% and final demand for services up 4.1% over the year.

Input Goods

The goods component has a larger importance to the total residential construction inputs price index, representing around 60%. For the month, the price of input goods to new residential construction was up 1.6% in January. Monthly growth of the index was relatively low in the past two years, as this monthly increase was the largest since March of 2022 (3.3%).

The input goods to residential construction index can be further broken down into two separate components, one measuring energy inputs with the other measuring goods less energy inputs. The latter of these two components simply represents building materials used in residential construction, which makes up around 93% of the goods index.

The 2.1% yearly growth in the goods component can be attributed to the rise in the prices of building materials, which grew 2.3% over the year. Meanwhile, the price of energy inputs was 1.6% lower than last year. Between December and January, building materials increased 1.4%, while energy inputs increased 4.3%.

At the individual commodity level, the five commodities with the highest importance for building materials to the New Residential Construction Index were as follows: ready-mix concrete, general millwork, paving mixtures/blocks, sheet metal products, and wood office furniture/store fixtures. Compared to last year, ready-mix concrete was up 4.1%, wood office furniture/store fixtures up 4.7%, general millwork up 2.4%, paving mixtures/blocks up 8.6% while sheet metal products were up 0.4%.

For January, the commodity used in new residential construction that featured the highest price growth was an energy input, home heating oil and distillates, increasing 16.0%. The non-energy input that had the highest monthly price growth was paving mixtures and blocks, up 14.8%. This is likely a pass-through of increases in asphalt prices, which were up 6.9% in January.

Input Services

While prices of inputs to residential construction for services were down 0.3% over the year, they were up 0.5% in January from December. The price index for service inputs to residential construction can be broken out into three separate components: a trade services component, a transportation and warehousing services component, and a services excluding trade, transportation and warehousing component. The most significant component is trade services (around 60%), followed by services less trade, transportation and warehousing (around 29%), and finally transportation and warehousing services (around 11%). The largest component, trade services, was down 1.9% from a year ago. The services less trade, transportation and warehousing component was up 1.6% over the year.   Lastly, prices for transportation and warehousing services advanced 3.1% compared to January last year, the largest year-over-year increase since January of 2023.

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After a period of slowing associated with declines for some elements of the residential construction industry, the count of open construction sector jobs remained lower than a year ago, per the December Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

The number of open jobs for the overall economy decreased from 8.16 million in November to 7.6 million in December. This is notably smaller than the 8.89 million estimate reported a year ago and reflects a softened aggregate labor market. Previous NAHB analysis indicated that this number had to fall below 8 million on a sustained basis for the Federal Reserve to feel more comfortable about labor market conditions and their potential impacts on inflation. With estimates remaining below 8 million for national job openings, the Fed in theory should be able to cut further despite a recent pause.

The number of open construction sector jobs decreased from a revised 272,000 in November to just 217,000 in December. This marks a significant reduction of open, unfilled construction jobs than that registered a year ago (434,000) due to a slowing of construction activity because of elevated interest rates.

The construction job openings rate moved lower to 2.5% in December, significantly down year-over-year from 5.1%. This is the lowest open rate for the construction sector since 2017.

The layoff rate in construction stayed low (1.8%) in December. The quits rate moved lower to 1.4% in December. This is the lowest quits rate for construction since the third quarter of 2020.

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Private fixed investment in student dormitories edged down by 1.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of $3.86 billion. This decline follows a 1.9% increase in the prior quarter. However, private fixed investment in dorms was 7.2% lower than a year ago, as the elevated interest rates place a damper on student housing construction.  

Private fixed investment in student housing experienced a surge after the Great Recession, as college enrollment increased from 17.2 million in 2006 to 20.4 million in 2011. However, during the pandemic, private fixed investment in student housing declined drastically from $4.4 billion (SAAR) in the last quarter of 2019 to $3 billion in the second quarter of 2021, as COVID-19 interrupted normal on-campus learning. According to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, college enrollment fell by 3.6% in the fall of 2020 and by 3.1% in the fall of 2021.  

Since then, private fixed investment has rebounded, as college enrollments show a slow but stabilizing recovery from pandemic driven declines. Effective in-person learning requires college students to return to campuses, boosting the student housing sector. Furthermore, the demand for student housing is growing robustly, because total enrollment in postsecondary institutions is projected to increase 8% from 2020 to 2030, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. 

Despite recent fluctuations, the student housing construction shows signs of recovery and is expected to grow in response to increasing student enrollment projections. 

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Imagine walking into your newly built or remodeled home and seeing it exactly as you had imagined it at the start of construction: the windows are all in the right places, the flooring is the right color, and the kitchen cabinets are a perfect fit.

Now allow me to pinch you on the arm, because for most people, reality is often different from that idyllic scenario. You might see missing trim around the bedroom doors or wonder why that small change in the kitchen cost so much. Looking back, you might ask, “And why did we have to hire another subcontractor to finish the bathroom?”

Of course, there are things you just can’t plan for, but there’s plenty that you can. Costly changes and additional time-consuming work can be kept to a minimum if you fully understand what you are building before you start. By understanding the construction process, being part of the team and keeping a firm grip on the budget, your construction project can result in the home of your dreams.



This article was originally published by a www.houzz.com . Read the Original article here. .


Private residential construction spending increased by 1.5% in December 2024, according to the latest U.S. Census Construction Spending data. It was the third consecutive monthly increase since September 2024.  On a year-over-year basis, the December report showed a 6% increase.

The monthly increase in total private construction spending was primarily driven by higher spending on single-family construction and residential improvements. Single-family construction spending was up 1% for the month. This marks a continuation of growth after a five-month decline from April to August, aligning with steady builder confidence seen in the Housing Market Index. However, single-family construction remained 0.8% lower than a year ago. Improvement spending rose by 2.6% in December and was 21.9% higher compared to the same period last year. In contrast, multifamily construction spending edged down 0.3% in December, following an 8.4% increase in October and a 0.8% up in November. Compared to a year ago, multifamily construction spending was still 10.5% lower.

The NAHB construction spending index is shown in the graph below. The index illustrates how   spending on single-family construction has slowed since early 2024 under the pressure of elevated interest rates. Multifamily construction spending growth has also slowed down after the peak in July 2023. Meanwhile, improvement spending has increased its pace since late 2023.

Spending on private nonresidential construction was up 2.3% over a year ago. The annual private nonresidential spending increase was mainly due to higher spending for the class of manufacturing ($23.6 billion), followed by the power category ($4.5 billion).

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Real GDP of metropolitan areas rose 2.7% in 2023, with the “real estate, rental and leasing” sector contributing 0.34 percentage points and construction contracting growth by 0.11 percentage points. While many metro areas followed the national growth trend, each region has its unique economic narrative. This article explores the economic trends driving these outcomes, focusing on the leading metro areas in real GDP growth, the construction sector’s standout performers over a five-year period, and the top MSAs benefiting from growth in real estate, rental, and leasing.

In 2023, real GDP increased in 348 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), decreased in 34 MSAs, and remained unchanged in 3 MSAs, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The data, which was recently released in December 2024, shows the range of growth spanned from 42.9% in Midland, TX, to a contraction of -9.3% in Elkhart-Goshen, IN. Three MSAs—Ithaca, NY, Joplin, MO, and Longview, WA—saw no change in real GDP.

The oil and gas sector played a significant role in driving growth in many MSAs. Midland, TX, recorded the highest growth due to a surge in oil production, with the “mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction” industry contributing a hefty 41.2 percentage points to the metro area’s GDP growth. Furthermore, among the top five highest growth areas, four had this industry as the leading contributor.

Top Five MSAs by Real GDP Growth and Leading Contributing Industry

Metro Area2023 Real GDP Growth (%)Largest Contributing IndustryContribution (Percentage Points)Midland, TX42.9Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction41.2Greeley, CO18.5Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction15.5El Centro, CA16.4Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting14.4Odessa, TX11.6Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction7.1Wheeling, WV-OH10.7Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction9.9

Construction Sector Growth (2018–2023)

From 2018 to 2023, the construction industry exhibited a mixed performance, with 140 MSAs reporting positive compound annual growth rates (CAGR), 188 recording declines, and 5 showing no change. States like Idaho, Arizona, and Florida emerged as hotspots for construction growth during this period while states in the East North Central division appear to have slowdowns in this sector.

Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY, led with a 14.4% CAGR in construction. This boom was primarily driven by the development of the BlueOval SK Battery Park, slated to begin production in 2025. This joint venture between Ford Motor Company and SK On, a South Korean electric vehicle (EV) supplier, is expected to be the largest EV battery manufacturing facility globally.

According to a study by the Hardin County Chamber of Commerce (HCCC), the project is estimated to:

Generate $1.6 billion in construction payroll.

Create 5,000 jobs by the end of 2025.

Require 3,100 additional housing units to accommodate new workers.

Top Five MSAs for Construction Growth (2018–2023):

Metro AreaCAGR (%)Average Contribution (Percentage Points)Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY14.40.45Clarksville, TN-KY10.80.03Punta Gorda, FL10.61.12Jacksonville, NC10.20.32The Villages, FL10.11.23

Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing Growth (2018–2023)

The real estate, rental, and leasing sector also showed robust growth in many regions, with 209 MSAs experiencing positive growth during the five-year period. The Villages, FL, recorded the highest CAGR at 14.1%, reflecting its status as the nation’s largest community designed for an aging population.

Other MSAs like Jonesboro, AR, saw significant real estate growth due to proximity to Arkansas State University, while Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX, benefited from a population influx because of its thriving tech economy.

Top Five MSAs for Real Estate Growth (2018–2023):

Metro AreaCAGR (%)Average Contribution (Percentage Points)The Villages, FL14.13.6Jonesboro, AR12.11.2Twin Falls, ID10.81.1Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX10.71.4El Centro, CA10.60.6

Visit NAHB’s dashboard for additional data and visualizations on demographics, housing market and the economy for all metro areas.

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Prices for inputs to new residential construction—excluding capital investment, labor, and imports—were unchanged in December according to the most recent Producer Price Index (PPI) report published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This index grew 0.8% over 2024, the lowest yearly increase in the index since its inception in 2014.

The inputs to the new residential construction price index can be broken into two components—one for goods and another for services. The goods component increased 1.7% over the year, while services decreased 0.4%. For comparison, the total final demand index increased 3.3% in 2024, with final demand with respect to goods up 1.8% and final demand for services up 4.0% over the year.

Input Goods

The goods component has a larger importance to the total residential construction inputs price index, representing around 60%. The price of input goods to new residential construction was down 0.1% in December from November. The input goods to residential construction index can be further broken down into two separate components, one measuring energy inputs with the other measuring goods less energy inputs. The latter of these two components simply represents building materials used in residential construction, which makes up around 93% of the goods index.

The price of goods used in residential construction grew 1.7% in 2024, slightly higher than the growth in 2023 of 1.0%. This growth can be attributed to the rise in the prices of building materials, which grew 2.2% in 2024. The price of energy inputs fell for the second straight year, down 5.3% in 2024.

At the individual commodity level, the five commodities with the highest importance for building materials to the new residential construction index were as follows: ready-mix concrete, general millwork, paving mixtures/blocks, sheet metal products, and wood office furniture/store fixtures. Across these commodities, there was price growth for most commodities in 2024 except for sheet metal products. Ready-mix concrete was up 5.1%, wood office furniture/store fixtures up 4.3%, general millwork up 2.5%, paving mixtures/blocks up 2.3% while sheet metal products were down 0.2%. The commodity used in new residential construction the featured the highest price growth in 2024 was softwood lumber, not edge worked, which increased 14.7% in 2024. The commodity where prices declined the most was No. 2 diesel fuel, down 13.9%.

Input Services

Prices of inputs to residential construction for services were up 0.5% in December from November. The price index for service inputs to residential construction can be broken out into three separate components: a trade services component, a transportation and warehousing services component, and a services excluding trade, transportation and warehousing component. The most significant component is trade services (around 60%), followed by services less trade, transportation and warehousing (around 29%), and finally transportation and warehousing services (around 11%). The largest component, trade services, was down 1.8% in 2024 after growing 5.8% in 2023.  Across individual services, credit deposit services advanced the most in 2024, up 21.2% over the year while the prices for metal, mineral and ore wholesaling services fell the most, down 19.2%.

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