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Builder Confidence Moves Higher as Election Uncertainty is Lifted

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Builder sentiment improved for the third straight month, and builders expect market conditions will continue to improve with Republicans winning control of the White House and Congress.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 46 in November, up three points from October, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Future sales expectations posted a notable increase in the November reading of builder sentiment.

While builder confidence is improving, the industry still faces many headwinds such as an ongoing shortage of labor and buildable lots along with elevated building material prices. Moreover, while the stock market cheered the election result, the bond market has concerns, as indicated by a rise for long-term interest rates. There is also policy uncertainty in front of the business sector and housing market as the executive branch changes hands.

The latest HMI survey also revealed that 31% of builders cut home prices in November. This share has remained essentially unchanged since July, hovering between 31% and 33%. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5%, slightly below the 6% rate posted in October. The use of sales incentives was 60% in November, slightly down from 62% in October.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All three HMI sub-indices were up in November. The index charting current sales conditions rose two points to 49, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased seven points to 64 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a three-point gain to 32.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased four points to 55, the Midwest moved three points higher to 44, the South edged up one point to 42 and the West held steady at 41. HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi.

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Builder Confidence Edges Higher Despite Affordability Headwinds

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With inflation gradually easing and builders anticipating mortgage rates will moderate in coming months, builder sentiment moved higher for a second consecutive month despite challenging affordability conditions.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 43 in October, up two points from a reading of 41 in September, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

Despite the beginning of the Fed’s easing cycle, many prospective home buyers remain on the sideline waiting for lower interest rates. We are forecasting uneven declines for mortgage interest rates in the coming quarters, which will improve housing demand but place stress on building lot supplies due to tight lending conditions for development and construction loans. However, while housing affordability remains low, builders are feeling more optimistic about 2025 market conditions. A wildcard for the outlook remains the election.

The latest HMI survey also revealed that the share of builders cutting prices held steady at 32% in October, the same rate as last month. Meanwhile, the average price reduction returned to the long-term trend of 6% after dropping to 5% in September. The use of sales incentives was 62% in October, slightly up from 61% in September.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All three HMI indices were up in October. The index charting current sales conditions rose two points to 47, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased four points to 57 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a two-point gain to 29.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased two points to 51, the Midwest moved two points higher to 41, the South held steady at 41 and the West increased three points to 41. The HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi.

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Builder Sentiment Rises as Rates Fall but Affordability Challenges Persist

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With mortgage rates declining by more than one-half of a percentage point from early August through mid-September, per Freddie Mac, builder sentiment edged higher this month even as builders continue to grapple with rising costs.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 41 in September, up two points from a reading of 39 in August, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This breaks a string of four consecutive monthly declines.

Due to lower interest rates, builders now have a positive view for future new home sales for the first time since May 2024. However, builders will face competition from rising existing home inventory in many markets as the mortgage rate lock-in effect softens with lower rates.

With inflation moderating, the Federal Reserve is expected to begin a cycle of monetary policy easing this week, which will produce downward pressure on mortgage interest rates and also lower the interest rates on land development and home construction business loans. Lowering the cost of construction is critical to confront persistent challenges for housing affordability.

The latest HMI survey also revealed that the share of builders cutting prices dropped in September for the first time since April, down one point to 32%. Moreover, the average price reduction was 5%, the first time it has been below 6% since July 2022. Meanwhile, the use of sales incentives fell to 61% in September, down from 64% in August.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All three HMI indices were up in September. The index charting current sales conditions rose one point to 45, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased four points to 53 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a two-point gain to 27.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell three points to 49, the Midwest edged one-point higher to 40, the South decreased one point to 41 and the West increased two points to 39.

The HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi.

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Top 10 Builder Market Shares for 2023

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NAHB analyzed the national market share data released by BUILDER Magazine in a previous blog post.  Last month, BUILDER Magazine released new data on the top 10 home builders within each of the 50 largest new home markets in the U.S. (ranked by single-family permits) (Figure 1).  It is important to note that this post is not specifically analyzing the top 10 largest home builders nationally and each market can differ in its respective top 10 home builder composition.

The top 10 home builders accounted for varying shares, ranging from 40.1% of single-family permits in the Kansas City area to 98.8% in Columbia, SC.  In 11 metro areas, the top 10 builders’ market share exceeded 90%. Across the 50 largest metro areas, the average market share of the top 10 builders was 78.2%, up from 73.3% in 2022.

Looking at results on a map reveals that Florida, South Carolina, Virginia, and southern California have multiple highly concentrated markets.  Texas and the Northwest include markets with lower levels of concentration.

D.R. Horton made the top 10 builder list in 47 markets, the most among all builders.  Lennar and PulteGroup followed, present in the top 10 builder list of 45 and 35 different metro markets, respectively.

From 2022 to 2023, 34 metro areas saw an increase with their top 10 builders’ market share while nine metro areas saw decreases.  The top 5 metro areas with the biggest increases were:

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA (90.3%, +26 percentage points)

Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC (92.3%, +16.4 percentage points)

Riverside-San Bernadino-Ontario, CA (94.9%, +16.1 percentage points)

Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL (96.2%, +15.3 percentage points)

New York-Newark-New Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA (62.6%, +14.9 percentage points)

Of the nine metro markets that saw decreases in the single-family permit share controlled by their top 10 builders, the five largest decreases were seen in:

Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA (66%, -8.7 percentage points)

North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL (79.1%, -7.4 percentage points)

Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL (72.4%, -7.2 percentage points)

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA (59.4%, -5.5 percentage points)

Salt Lake City, UT (59.3%, -4.3 percentage points)

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Builder Confidence Moves Lower as Market Waits for Rate Cuts

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A lack of affordability and buyer hesitation stemming from elevated interest rates and high home prices contributed to a decline in builder sentiment in August.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 39 in August, down two points from a downwardly revised reading of 41 in July, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This is the lowest reading since December 2023.

Almost three-quarters of the responses to the August HMI were collected during the first week of the month when interest rates averaged 6.73%, according to Freddie Mac. Mortgage rates declined notably the following week to 6.47%, the lowest reading since May 2023.

Challenging housing affordability conditions remain the top concern for prospective home buyers in the current reading of the HMI, as both present sales and traffic readings showed weakness. However, with current inflation data pointing to interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and mortgage rates down markedly in the second week of August, buyer interest and builder sentiment should improve in the months ahead.

The August HMI survey also revealed that 33% of builders cut home prices to bolster sales in August, above the July rate of 31% and the highest share in all of 2024. However, the average price reduction in August held steady at 6% for the 14th straight month. Meanwhile, the use of sales incentives increased to 64% in August from 61% in July, and this was the highest level since April 2019.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

The HMI index charting current sales conditions in August fell two points to 44 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers also declined by two points to 25. The component measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased one point to 49.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell four points to 52, the Midwest dropped four points to 39, the South decreased two points to 42 and the West held steady at 37. The HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi.

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This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

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