The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey, rose 4.7% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, primarily driven by refinancing activity. Compared to February last year, the index is 15.6% higher.
The Purchase Index declined 6.5% (SA) from the previous month, though it may rebound as mortgage rates continue to fall amid weakening consumer sentiment and growing economic concerns. Meanwhile, the Refinance Index surged 22.7% (SA). Compared to February last year, purchase applications are marginally higher by 2.1%, while refinance activity has jumped 43.7%.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage reported in the MBA survey for February fell 15 basis points (bps) to 6.9% (index level 687), 7 bps lower than a year ago.
Loan sizes also increased with the average total market loan size (purchases and refinances combined) rising by 4.4% on a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis from January to $389,500. For purchase loans, the average size increased by 3.93% to $446,000, while refinance loans experienced a 6.1% increase, reaching an average of $305,800. Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) saw a jump in average loan size of 5.9% from $1.07 million to $1.13 million.
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Construction Firms
1. Business activity outlook increased. The Expected Business Activity Indicator, related to project inquiries and new committed projects, increased by 10 points, to 62, for the fourth quarter of 2024, from 52 for the third quarter of 2024. This means more construction firms anticipate quarter-over-quarter growth than anticipate a decline.
Expectations for project inquiries increased by 7 points, to 59 (from 52 for Q3), and expectations for new committed projects increased by 12 points, to 64 (from 52 for Q3).
Both build-only and design-build firms are more optimistic for Q4 than they were for the previous quarter. The expected activity indicator for build-only firms increased 9 points, to 62 (from 53 for Q3), and for design-build firms it increased 10 points, to 61 (from 51 for Q3).
The indicator is based on survey questions about whether businesses expect the number of project inquiries and new projects to increase, decrease or remain unchanged in the coming three months compared with the previous three months.