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In recent weeks, I’ve noticed a concerning economic term resurfacing in financial discussions: stagflation. As someone who analyzes market trends obsessively, I believe real estate investors should understand what stagflation is, why concerns are rising, and how it might affect your investment strategy should it rear its ugly head.

What Is Stagflation?

Stagflation combines two problematic economic conditions simultaneously: high inflation and recession (combined with high unemployment).

Typically, inflation and unemployment move in opposite directions. During economic expansions, unemployment falls as businesses hire more workers. This creates a positive cycle: more employed people means higher wages, which increases consumer spending power and demand for goods and services. Higher demand and cheap money often lead to inflation. 

When inflation rises too high, the Federal Reserve steps in by raising interest rates. These higher rates make borrowing more expensive, causing businesses to slow their expansion and sometimes cut jobs, which in turn increases unemployment. With fewer people working or spending freely, consumer demand drops, helping to bring inflation back under control. It’s not a fun cycle, but it’s the norm in the United States. 

However, during the 1970s, something unusual happened—stagflation. Instead of seeing just inflation or just high unemployment, the U.S. economy experienced six consecutive quarters of declining GDP while simultaneously tripling its inflation rate. This stagflationary period was a result of oil shocks, loose monetary policy, and fiscal changes, including the abandonment of the gold standard.

The challenge with stagflation is the limited options for addressing it. The Fed’s typical tools become less effective:

  • Raising rates to fight inflation risks worsening unemployment
  • Lowering rates to stimulate job growth risks increasing inflation

This creates a policy trap for the Federal Reserve, as their usual tools to fight either inflation or recession would worsen the other problem. Raise rates to fight inflation? That could hurt the labor market. Lower rates to boost employment? Watch out for rising inflation. It’s a tough situation to get out of and should be avoided at all costs. 

Why Stagflation Concerns Are Rising Now

In the current economic environment, several economists are raising concerns about stagflationary risks, with tariffs as the primary factor. 

Research shows tariffs typically hurt the economy in two ways: they raise prices and slow economic growth. The Smoot-Hawley tariffs of 1930 offer a historical example, where tariffs led to declining GDP, increasing unemployment, and worsening banking conditions. More broadly, a comprehensive study examining 151 countries over five decades found that economic output typically falls after tariffs are implemented.

Looking at our current situation, several major financial institutions forecast modest inflation increases due to tariff costs being passed to consumers:

  • Goldman Sachs expects inflation to rise from 2.1% to 3%
  • Deloitte predicts an increase from 2% to 2.8%
  • Fannie Mae anticipates growth from 2.5% to 2.8%

These projections suggest inflation will increase due to tariffs but remain well below the extreme levels of inflation we experienced in 2021–2022.

To be clear, no one knows exactly what will happen with tariffs, and what shakes out in the coming months will largely determine if stagflation occurs and how rough it might get. 

What Are the Odds?

If you want to quantify the risk (which I can’t help do as an analyst), most forecasters still think stagflation isn’t the most probable outcome:

  • Comerica projects a 35-40% chance of stagflation
  • University of Michigan models show a 25-30% probability
  • UBS raised U.S. stagflation risk to 20%
  • The most pessimistic outlook comes from Wall Street, where 71% of fund managers expect global stagflation within 12 months.

The consensus appears to be that stagflation risk is at its highest since the 1980s, but most economists believe we’ll avoid these conditions. Even if stagflation occurs, forecasts suggest it would likely be short-term rather than a prolonged 1970s-style situation.

What This Means for Real Estate Investors

The 1970s stagflation period offers valuable insights for today’s real estate investors. When I researched how real estate performed during this challenging economic time, I found some interesting patterns.

Historical Performance During Stagflation:

  • Property values typically kept pace with inflation in nominal terms
  • Real (inflation-adjusted) returns showed inconsistency with occasional declines
  • Rents kept pace in nominal terms and were close in inflation-adjusted terms as well
  • Rental properties likely outperformed stocks during this period, but individual results vary

During the 1970s stagflation period, real estate proved to be a relatively resilient asset class. Physical assets like real estate often serve as inflation hedges when other investments struggle. This proved true during stagflation, and property owners were able to maintain their nominal wealth even as inflation surged.

That said, when adjusted for inflation, real estate returns were uneven. Investors protected their wealth better than in many alternative investments, but significant real growth remained elusive. That may just be the best anyone can do in stagflationary periods. 

Today’s Critical Difference: Affordability

What’s different today compared to the 1970s is housing affordability. Both home prices and rents are already stretched relative to incomes—a vulnerability that didn’t exist to the same degree previously. I’m not sure if that would change real estate performance in a potential stagflationary period, but it’s something that may negatively impact real estate. 

My Investment Strategy

Despite these concerns, my strategy remains largely unchanged. I’ll continue investing but with caution, looking for solid long-term assets while avoiding thin or risky deals given the current uncertainty.

I recommend fellow investors:

  1. Stay informed by monitoring key economic indicators
  2. Remain patient and only pursue strong, obvious deals
  3. Think long-term, as short-term uncertainty doesn’t negate the benefits of sound real estate investing

It’s too early to say whether stagflation will actually occur or how severe it might be. By staying informed, patient, and focused on the long term, real estate investors can navigate this uncertainty effectively.

What strategies are you using to prepare for potential economic changes? Share your thoughts in the comments below!

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Zillow made waves last week after issuing a surprising revision to their housing market forecast: They now expect national home prices to decline over the next 12 months. That’s a notable shift—and it’s got a lot of investors asking questions. Is Zillow overreacting? Are other experts on the same page? And more importantly, if a buyer’s market really is forming, is that actually bad news for real estate investors? Let’s break it all down.

From Modest Growth to a Predicted Decline

If you’ve been following Zillow’s monthly forecasts, you’ve probably noticed a steady trend downward. Back in January, they were predicting a modest 3% increase in home prices through early 2025. By February, that number dropped to 1.1%. In March, just 0.8%. And now? Zillow’s latest model is calling for a -1.9% price decline between March 2025 and March 2026. Now, to be clear, this isn’t a doomsday prediction. A 2% drop in home prices is a correction, not a crash. But it is significant, especially coming from a company that’s been relatively optimistic in the past.

What’s Causing the Downturn?

So what’s behind the shift? It comes down to two basic fundamentals: more supply and still-weak demand. New listings are up 15–20% year-over-year, which is good news for inventory-starved markets, but it puts pressure on prices. Meanwhile, affordability is still tight. Mortgage rates have bounced back to the high 6s or even 7%, and that’s keeping a lot of buyers on the sidelines. Zillow’s not calling for a crash, just a continuation of the slow-cooling trend we’ve seen over the past several quarters. And, as always, national numbers don’t tell the full story.

Zillow’s city-level forecasts paint a more nuanced picture. The Northeast is still expected to see price growth, modest but positive.

markets with price increases
ResiClub’s Analysis of Zillow’s Report

The Gulf Coast, parts of Texas, and Northern California could see steeper declines.

markets with price decreases
ResiClub’s Analysis of Zillow’s Report

Most of the country is flat—somewhere in the -2% to +2% range. In other words, this is pretty much what I predicted late last year: A mixed bag of flat markets with a few hotter and colder pockets.

Are Other Forecasts Saying the Same Thing?

Now, let’s zoom out. Zillow is just one forecast among many. Fannie Mae still projects +1.7% growth. Wells Fargo is a bit more optimistic, expecting +3% growth via the Case-Shiller index. J.P. Morgan is also in that 2–3% range. So, while Zillow’s -1.9% prediction stands out, most other forecasters still believe prices will rise modestly. That said, Zillow’s bearish call does carry weight, especially since many assume their models tend to skew bullish to begin with.

Personally? I think Zillow’s call is reasonable. In fact, I’ve said for months that most markets will be broadly flat—somewhere in the -3% to +3% range. So, a -1.9% national forecast doesn’t strike me as alarmist. It fits the trend. And honestly, the trend is what matters. You don’t need perfect precision to make sound investing decisions—you need directional clarity. And right now, that direction is clear: softening conditions. Inventory is rising. Demand is fragile. Uncertainty is high. Those are facts.

Where we go from here depends almost entirely on macro conditions. If inflation cools and interest rates stabilize? We might see a return to modest price growth. If rates stay high and economic uncertainty drags on? Modest declines—like what Zillow is predicting—are totally possible. But here’s the most important thing: No one credible is forecasting a crash. There’s just not enough distress in the system. Yes, a recession is possible. But a crash requires forced selling on a wide scale—and there’s no evidence that’s happening.

So…are price declines even bad? Depends on who you ask. For sellers? Not great. For flippers and BRRRR investors? Tricky. For those obsessing over the paper value of their portfolio? Sure, it can sting. But for long-term investors? A buyer’s market could be exactly what you’ve been waiting for. This isn’t 2021. The market isn’t hot. But that creates opportunities. Motivated sellers. Negotiation leverage. Less competition. Maybe even a discount.

My Strategy Moving Forward

I’m personally looking for deals where I can buy 2–4% below market value. That cushions me against downside risk and sets me up to hold a valuable, income-producing asset for the long haul. As always, I look for properties with rent growth potential, zoning or regulatory upside, value-add opportunities, or location in a path of progress. If I can check 2–3 of those boxes, I’m buying. Even if prices dip a little more. Because I’m investing for the next 10–20 years—not the next 10 months.

Yeah—price declines might sound scary. They always do. But if you zoom out and think strategically, this could be the start of a more favorable investing environment. Flat-to-down markets aren’t the enemy. They’re the setup.

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Mortgage rates edged up slightly in April, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage settling at 6.73%, according to Freddie Mac. This marks an 8-basis-point (bps) increase from March. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage increased by 7 bps to 5.90%.

The uptick in mortgage rates followed a sell-off in U.S. Treasury securities, driven by concerns surrounding the ongoing trade war. As demand for Treasuries declined, prices fell and yields rose. The 10-year Treasury yield averaged 4.28% in April, with the most recent weekly yield rising to 4.34%. The sell-off signals a potential loss of investor confidence in what is typically considered a safe-haven asset.

In response to rising yields, the president has pressured Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates. However, at the recent Economic Club of Chicago, Chairman Powell stated that “tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation” and emphasized the Fed’s obligation to price stability, adding that it must ensure “a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem”.

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This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .


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Renting out your home is a great way to generate passive income and build long-term wealth, as rental properties can generate strong profits in multiple ways. Landlords earn cash flow, build equity in their property, and enjoy significant tax benefits—all while providing housing to their community. And luckily, it’s a proven business model that almost anyone can do. 

In this article, we’ll provide a step-by-step guide for deciding if renting out your home is right for you and, if it is, how you can set yourself up for success. 

1. Evaluate Whether Renting Is the Right Option for You

Renting out your home may sound like a great idea, but before jumping in, make sure it makes sense for your personal situation. 

Some questions you can ask yourself are: 

  • Do I need the equity to finance a new place to live or another large expense? 
  • Do I have time to manage a rental property? 
  • Am I willing to find and work with tenants? 
  • Can I ensure repairs and maintenance are done in a timely and safe manner?
  • Can I handle some basic bookkeeping and reporting to ensure I maximize my returns and comply with all tax regulations?

Being a landlord isn’t hard per se, but it does take some effort and comes with responsibilities. Make sure you’re up for those responsibilities before listing your property for rent. 

2. Run the Numbers

If you’re ready to take on the exciting prospect of becoming a landlord, the next step is to run the numbers and make sure your property will turn a profit. It may have been your home when you lived in it, but once you rent out your property, it becomes an investment—and that investment should earn you money! 

Running the numbers on a rental property is relatively straightforward: Determine how much you can earn in rent and compare that to your total expenses. 

Determining what your property can rent for is pretty easy. Look for comparable properties on Redfin, or you can get a Rent Estimate for your specific property using the BiggerPockets Rent Estimator or Redfin’s rental calculator. You can also speak to your neighbors about what they pay for rent or consult with a local property manager. It usually helps to look at two or three different sources to make sure your estimate of rent is reasonable. 

Next, add up all your expenses. Hopefully, this should be easy for you, since you’ve lived in this home. Common expenses you’re probably familiar with include your mortgage, taxes, insurance, and repairs and maintenance. There are also a few expenses specific to landlords you’ll also want to consider, like vacancies and turnover expenses (the cost of sprucing up your home between tenants).

Lastly, subtract your expenses from your potential rental income and see where you land. If your income is more than your total expenses, that’s the goal! You’ll be generating passive cash flow by renting out your house—all while you pay down your mortgage, benefit from potential appreciation and enjoy significant tax benefits. 

If you need help assessing your home as a rental property, you can check out the BiggerPockets Rental Calculator

If you are ready to become a landlord and your property can turn a profit, that’s great! You’re well on your way to an exciting new financial opportunity and to join the millions of Americans who build wealth through renting properties. 

3. Understand Local Laws and Regulations

Before you list your home for rent, it’s important to understand the laws and regulations that govern rental properties. These laws typically exist at the state and local level, so make sure to thoroughly research the rules in your area

Key things to look for include: 

  • Zoning laws 
  • Rental regulations
  • Tenant and landlord rights
  • Whether your municipality requires rental permits or licensing 
  • Fair housing laws 

These laws exist to ensure that both tenants and landlords are protected, and complying with them is a must. 

4. Prepare Your Home for Rent

Once you’re up to speed on local laws and regulations, it’s time to get your home ready to be shown and rented out. It can help to think of your future tenants as customers, and now is the time to think through how you’ll attract and keep those customers. 

The local regulations you just researched should give you some guidance on the required steps, but you’ll probably want to go above and beyond to make sure your home is as successful as possible as a rental. Consider the following: 

  • Complete safety checks to make sure there are no hazards. For example, check to ensure monitoring features like smoke and carbon monoxide detectors are in place, fire extinguishers are readily available, and all of your utilities are working as expected. 
  • Go through your house to make sure everything is in working order. Check your appliances, light fixtures, plumbing, and even small things like cabinets and drawers to ensure your home is in good working order for your tenants. 
  • Clean everything really well. No one wants to move into a dirty house. 
  • Consider property upgrades that will attract and retain tenants. Small things like a fresh coat of paint, new carpet, or some string lights can go a long way.

While your home may feel perfect just the way it is to you, doing some upfront work to turn your property into a rental is usually a good investment. It will help you land great tenants and often save you money and headaches over the long run. 

5. Look Into Landlord Insurance 

You (hopefully) have homeowners insurance for your home already, but landlords should consider some extra coverage before placing a tenant. 

First, double-check to ensure that your coverage allows your home to be rented out and that it has adequate coverage for fire, vandalism, disasters, and other common risks. Next, check to see if your insurance offers liability protection against injury claims from tenants or visitors. If it doesn’t, you’ll want that. 

Lastly, consider business interruption insurance. Unfortunately, things happen, and if, for some reason, your property becomes unrentable for a period of time, you’ll probably want your insurance to compensate you for lost rent on top of helping you pay for repairs. 

6. Market Your Property

Now for the exciting part: putting your home on the market. Finding a great tenant is a key part of being a landlord and something you should put some effort into. 

First and foremost, take good photographs! They don’t need to be professionally taken—but take this part seriously.  

Nothing turns off potential renters faster than blurry photos that don’t show your home positively. Your home is probably beautiful—do it justice and show it off with good pictures (or if you’re not good at this type of thing, ask a friend or family member). 

Once you have good pictures, advertise your listing on digital platforms like Redfin or on local forums, and don’t underestimate word of mouth. Make sure to include key facts like: 

  • Date available
  • Length of lease 
  • Property description and details 
  • How to set up a showing

When prospective tenants reach out to you with interest, make sure to reply in a timely and professional manner. Remember, this is a business, and you want to treat your customers well. You can schedule an open house to do bulk showings or schedule a convenient time to meet with all interested parties one-on-one—it’s up to you. 

Either way, ensure your home is in its best condition for showings. Tidy up, turn the lights on before people arrive, and be ready to answer any questions potential applicants may have. 

7. Screen Potential Tenants

Before any showings, you should determine how you’ll have potential tenants apply to rent your home. This is an important part of the rental property business, as it ensures you find a tenant who can meet the obligations of the lease and will take care of your property. 

Typically, the application process requires a credit check, background check (criminal history, eviction history, etc.), and calling references (like a current landlord or employer to verify income). There are many online services that can help you obtain this information about a tenant with the applicant’s permission. 

The information you receive in an application can be sensitive personal information, so follow all laws regarding its handling, treat it with respect, and don’t share it with anyone. 

While every landlord will have different criteria, most generally focus on a steady income that is well above the monthly rent and a good history as a renter. Remember, fair housing laws apply to all housing providers, and you need to ensure that your application and screening process adhere to all federal, state, and local laws. 

8. Create a Solid Lease Agreement

After you’ve found a great tenant to rent your home, it’s time to put pen to paper and sign a lease. While it may seem formal, having a strong lease is absolutely essential to renting out your home. It ensures both you and your tenant have a common understanding of obligations and responsibilities, and puts into place key protections for both parties. 

A lease agreement can contain tons of different information, but ensure these essential components are included

  • Rent amount, how and when it’s paid, and implications for late payment
  • Lease duration and renewal provisions
  • Amount of the security deposit and process for its return
  • Maintenance and repair responsibilities 

Although most municipalities don’t require a lawyer to write your lease, it’s a good idea to have something you know is legally sound. There are many laws that govern landlord/tenant relationships, and you want to be sure your lease takes them all into account. 

BiggerPockets offers leases for all 50 states that are updated annually to ensure compliance, or you can consult with your own attorney before drafting a lease. 

Make sure to give your tenants proper time to review the lease before signing, and make yourself available for any questions. Once everyone is comfortable with the lease, sign it, collect the security deposit, and plan for your new tenant to move in! 

9. Prepare for Ongoing Property Management

Your job as a landlord doesn’t end once your tenant moves in. While collecting rent is great and exciting, you need to pay ongoing attention to your rental property to ensure your tenants are happy and your business is profitable. 

Property management entails a broad spectrum of responsibilities, but most commonly includes collecting rent, coordinating maintenance and repairs, communicating with tenants, recordkeeping, and more. This may sound like a lot, but after a small learning curve, most people can learn to do this in just a few hours per month. 

Many homeowners choose to do property management themselves, while others opt for a professional manager. Both are fine choices—it just depends on your personal preferences. DIY property management will save you money (professional managers typically charge 8% to 12% of rent), but obviously requires a commitment of time. Professional managers can be great for homeowners who want to be hands-off with their rentals (they can even do the marketing/screening/lease signing mentioned), but come with reduced profits. 

Whichever option you choose—DIY or a professional property manager—it’s important to ensure you have the proper oversight and systems in place to make sure your home stays in great shape, your tenants are happy, and your business is as profitable as possible. 

10. Be a Responsible Landlord

Becoming a landlord is an exciting financial proposition, but it also comes with important responsibilities and obligations to your tenants. This includes: 

  • Addressing tenant concerns promptly
  • Timely communication
  • Repairing anything that breaks
  • Ensuring your property is safe 

While some people assume that the tenant/landlord relationship is often adversarial, that’s not the case. Most landlords and tenants get along well on the basis of mutual respect and understanding. Remember, your tenants are your customers, and you should do your best to give them a positive experience as a renter of your home. 

How to Start Renting Out Your Home: Final Thoughts

Renting out your home is an exciting proposition that can give your finances a big boost. Rental properties can earn passive cash flow, generate equity growth, and provide tax benefits—all without a huge amount of effort. It’s an amazing opportunity to leverage your existing home and a proven business model to generate passive income. Millions of Americans enjoy the benefits of renting out their homes, and you can, too, by following the 10 easy steps in this article. 

Remember that renting out your home isn’t just collecting a rent check. You need to carefully consider if you’re ready to take on the responsibilities of being a landlord: following all local laws and regulations, maintaining the quality and safety of your home, addressing tenant concerns and treating them with respect, and doing some basic administrative work as well

If you want to enjoy the many benefits of renting out your home and are ready to take on the responsibilities, you can follow the steps in this list to get started. You can also head over to BiggerPockets to access tons of resources on how to be a successful rental property owner and join a community of over 3 million people pursuing financial independence through real estate. 



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Finding the right rental property isn’t easy. It needs to fit your budget and buy box, and if you’re house hacking, you’ll want to buy in a neighborhood you’re comfortable living in. These are just a few of many roadblocks rookies face, but we’re going to show you how to thread the needle in today’s episode!

Welcome to another Rookie Reply! We’re back with more questions from the BiggerPockets Forums and the Real Estate Rookie YouTube channel, and first up, we’ll hear from an investor who is struggling to find a property that checks all the right boxes. Should they settle for what they can afford or save up for something better? Should they shop around for different types of financing? Stay tuned to find out!

We’ll also hear from an investor who wants to use the home equity from their first rental property to help buy their next one. Should they get a HELOC (home equity line of credit), use a cash-out refinance, or sell their property? We’ll weigh the pros and cons and help them make the smartest move. Finally, if you own rentals for long enough, you’re bound to have friction with neighbors. We’ll show you how to defuse tension and build rapport!

Ashley:
If you’re struggling with how to decipher all of your financing options, or maybe you’re just wondering what is the best kind of market to invest in this episode is for you. Today, we’re going to tackle the biggest roadblocks rookie investors face from accessing capital to making smart neighborhood decisions that will set you up for long-term success.

Tony:
Now whether you’re trying to figure out if you should house hack in a C class neighborhood, or wait to save up for something more premium, we’ve got you covered with some advice in today’s episode. Plus, we’re breaking down exactly how HELOC loans work so you can feel confident leveraging that equity for your next investment. Now, what I love about today’s questions is that they’re coming from people at different stages, some with equity already built up and others trying to make that crucial first investment decision. So no matter where you are in your journey, today’s episode has something valuable just for you.

Ashley:
I’m Ashley Kehr.

Tony:
And I’m Tony j Robinson,

Ashley:
And welcome to the Real Estate Rookie Podcast. Okay, let’s start off with our first question today. This is from the BiggerPockets forums and it is should I start off with a house hack and a D or C class neighborhood or should I save more and go with a B class neighborhood right out of the gate? Any advice would be appreciated and please explain why. Okay, so first, Tony, we should probably break down what actually a class neighborhood means between A, B, C, D, maybe an E. Is there an E class neighborhood? So

Tony:
When you think about a class neighborhood, those are going to be your luxury rentals. Those are going to be the ones that have the nice flooring, the nice countertops, the premium fixtures, maybe all the crazy amenities, that’s an A class and they’re obviously charging premium rinse. And on the opposite end of that spectrum, a D class neighborhood would be kind of the opposite of that, right? Where the rentals themselves probably aren’t as nice. Maybe the demographics of that neighborhood in terms of income, in terms of employment might be a little bit lower. The turnover of your tenant base, maybe it’s a little bit higher. The delinquency rates when it comes to the random paying on time might be a little bit higher. So just slightly different property types and slightly different demographic of people filling those types of properties.

Ashley:
So back to the question and the question is asking, should I house hack in a D or C class or should I save more and go with a B class neighborhood? So I think since you’re going to be house hacking and you’re going to be living there, there is some kind of emotional, usually we say leave the emotion out of your deals, but if it is going to be your primary residence, I think that should weigh into part as to where do you feel comfortable living? Where do you want to live or where do you want to live? So let’s say not even with the classes of neighborhood, but how far away is this property from your job? So in one neighborhood it’s going to be an hour commute where another neighborhood, it’s going to be a 10 minute commute. Does that play a factor? So when you’re thinking of yourself living in these properties, look at all the factors, what that would affect you personally too.

Tony:
Yeah, I couldn’t agree more. I think the idea of, hey, what I feel comfortable living here is an important one to answer for yourself, but I think even maybe just before C or D class, it’s like how much of a difference in cost has it actually in your specific neighborhood to go from a D class neighborhood to a B class neighborhood? Because if you’re using FHA 3.5% down, going from a, I don’t know, whatever the price difference is, how much more out of pocket is actually going to be for you? And have you coached those numbers? And even more so are there maybe other loan products out there where maybe you don’t have any cash out of pocket? There’s first time home buyer assistance grants. There’s things like the VA loan if you’re a veteran, there’s things like naca if you’re not a veteran, Ashley talks about the USDA loan. So have you really explored even all of the financing opportunities that are available to you that maybe would allow you to get into that B class neighborhood with the cash you have on hand currently?

Ashley:
And I think run the numbers. So take a property that’s a B class property and then take a property that’s in a C or D class neighborhood, and what is the difference in the cash flow of the properties? How do they perform against each other? And like we had mentioned in the beginning that basically to summarize, to explain a de class neighborhood, it’s more of a headache. There can be different issues, different problems than you’d have. I mean there still can be the same problems that you’d have, but for example, a de class neighborhood, it’s not going to make sense for rental income or for resale value. If you make this property really, really nice, you put in the granite countertops, you put in hardwood floors, nobody is going to pay a premium to have those finishes because it’s just not affordable in that area where maybe that’s the kind of comfort you want to live in.
Then when you go and resell it, nobody’s going to pay the premium for those high-end finishes in that neighborhood because they don’t want to live there. So you have to remember that too when you’re looking at the property as to what extent of any rehab remodel these properties would need to get it to a suitable living condition for you and your tenants. What is that going to cost? You’re looking at things that are already turnkey. Let’s look at the maintenance and the CapEx on the two different properties. So is there more maintenance in CapEx that needs to be performed on one? So maybe the class C property is actually better that you found because it actually has been updated. So you got to look at all the numbers, run the numbers and see where the differences are, compare and contrast. Literally go onto Zillow right now, find a property that is in each of one of those neighborhoods you’re considering and just run the numbers on each of them to give you an idea of what that comparison looks like.

Tony:
Yeah, I think one other thing to add to is say you do decide to move forward with the C or the D class neighborhood, I would really encourage you to spend even more time than you typically would screening all of your tenants, right? Because if you are house hacking and maybe a part of town where it’s known to have tenants that can potentially cause problems. You want to make sure that whoever you’re sharing walls with is someone that you’re going to enjoy sharing walls with. So even if you have a long line of people banging down your door to get into your place, I would be very, very within the reason or within the confines of what’s legal as a landlord, I would be very, very picky about who I allow in and I might even give myself more vacancy on the front end to make sure that on the backend of actually living in this place for the next 12 months or however long it is that you actually enjoy it. So just taking your time leasing up this property,

Ashley:
And you do have a benefit as house hacking, like some of the fair housing laws don’t apply to you because you will be living on the property. So you do have more of a say as to who can actually live with you.

Tony:
That’s cool. So there are certain things that apply to landlords that don’t apply to landlords who are house hacking.

Ashley:
Yeah. So okay, I am a female and I’m renting out one of my rooms. It is okay for me to say I only want a female in that room and to pick based off of personality really. We just had Miller MCs swen on and he’s writing the co-living thing. If you’re living in the property can most of the times you are interviewing the person as to what I like living with them.

Tony:
I only want Lakers fans living with me with

Ashley:
Seasons tickets. So this question and so many others are exactly the type of problems you can get answered at BP Con if you’re looking to take your investing to the next level. BP Con in Las Vegas is the answer, early bird pricing was actually extended to April 30th. So grab a ticket now and come and say hi to Tony and I. Now a quick word from our show sponsors. Okay, welcome back. So this second question, I love this. We actually pulled this from the real estate rookie YouTube channel. This was a comment on one of our videos and I love that we’re getting so much engagement on YouTube. If you guys aren’t watching on YouTube or if you are, make sure you leave a comment below, ask your questions or engage with the others here that are commenting. Okay, so this question says, hi guys. I just recently learned about this podcast.
Welcome, and this is by far my favorite. I’ve been listening to a lot of the success stories and the fun journeys of the investors you have in your show and thank you. We love that they take the time to come on in and talk us to. Okay, so as question is, I am just wondering if anyone in this community can give me any advice on what to do. Me and my wife own a half duplex. We bought it for 305,000 a couple years ago at 5.4%. It’s five years fixed on 25 years amortization. So before I go on real quick, let’s just break that down. So their interest rate is 5.4% and it’s only fixed for five years, but their payments are amortized over 25 years. So after that five year mark, they can go and refinance or it will usually go into a variable rate for the remaining 20 years. Okay, so the question continues on. We are now left with $264,000 mortgage balance. The house has a 345,000 city appraisal, however the same house was sold in my neighborhood for 365,000. We’re thinking of buying a second property to use as a rental using the equity that is available to us. Any advice on what should be the best course of action to take in this situation? Okay, so Tony, I actually have a question for you. What is a city appraisal?

Tony:
I was going to say the same thing. I didn’t know that appraise properties and there’s a tax assessed value, but that typically doesn’t accurately reflect the real world value of a property and we typically see that to be a lot lower than what a property would typically sell for. So I actually haven’t heard of a quote city appraisal

Ashley:
And I wonder if there’s some confusion there because I’ve spoken to a lot of people that have mistaken those terms, the city assessment for your taxes with appraisal, like getting that reversed as to the language. So maybe for this sake they could both ways as far as they actually got an appraisal done and it’s 345,000, but if this was the wrong word was mistaken, it’s actually the assessment on the property taxes. Like Tony said, that’s usually not an accurate value of the property. So on your property taxes you’ll have the market value which is actually closer to what the property is probably valued. And then the assessed value is a percentage of that and it’s lower and that’s what they based your taxes off of. But even the market value, I look at some of my property taxes, that is definitely not what the value is, but I’m not going to complain because I don’t want my taxes to increase by saying, Hey, my property is actually worth this. And that’s why, and this changes by state and county to when you sell the property. If the town does a reassessment, that is where they go and say, okay, we see you’ve got these permits, you added another bedroom, you did all this stuff on the exterior, your property is now actually assessed at this value and your property taxes have increased. So the first thing I’m going to say is if this is the assessed value, it is like a Zillow estimate. It is not reliable as the actual home’s value.

Tony:
So I guess let’s get into their options here then, right? I mean because assuming that the 365 of the house that sold around the corner is maybe a more reasonable target, they’ve got about a hundred thousand dollars in equity now. They can’t tap into all of that. Different ways of tapping into your equity are going to maybe limit you up to 90% somewhere in that ballpark. But I guess there’s kind of two options here. You’ve got, or I guess technically there’s three options, right? Option one is you sell the property, but it sounds like you want to keep it. So maybe we take that one off the table. So your two remaining options are you can refinance the property where you replace the initial mortgage, that 5.4% on a 25 year am you replace that with new debt. And then the second option is maybe a heloc, a home equity line of credit where you’re getting a line of credit using that equity.
Now between those two options, there’s pros and cons to each. A HELOCs going to play more like a credit card where you get charged for what you draw against that line of credit, whereas the refinance is like, Hey, you’re getting all that money on day one and regardless of whether or not you actually use it, you’re going to start paying on it. So there’s pros and cons to each, but I don’t know. I think in their position, Ashley, if they’ve got this 5.4 rate currently, if it was fixed for the entirety of the loan, I might lean more so towards the HELOC just to keep that 5% in place because it’s better than what we’re getting today. But if it’s going to adjust based on some prime plus whatever, they maybe end up paying 9%, who knows what that new rate is going to be. So to me, if that flex on that rate gets you above and beyond what the prevailing rates are today, I’m probably just going to go with the refinance because it’s cheaper. But if that floating rate ends up being lower than seven, which probably isn’t going to happen, then I might go with the heloc. That’s my initial thoughts, Ash. I know. What do you think on that?

Ashley:
I think it says they’ve owned the house for a couple years, so let’s say they’re two years, they got three years left on the fix. I definitely would go and find out what current rates are to either get refinance for another five year fix because you’re most likely going to get a lower interest rate. I did just talk to a couple banks and there actually was one bank, which really surprised me. The rate was higher for a five year fixed or a seven year fix compared to the 30 year fix, which really surprised me. Everybody else though, the less period of time you were guaranteeing to fix it, the interest rate was lower.

Tony:
And I wonder why that is, right? If they’re giving you better rates for the long term fixed, are they assuming that? Yeah, I wonder what their thought process do they think rates are going to

Ashley:
Right? And it was just this one bank and I was shocked by it because I’ve always experienced that it’s lower interest rate when you’re only fixing. So my only thought is is that they have more of a guarantee that you’ll stay with them for a longer period of time and they’ll end up making more interest if you do sign the 30 year one compared to you refinancing at five years in the risk you go and refinancing at another bank. That’s literally the only thing I can think of. But that is super hypothetical

Tony:
And I was thinking of it from a slightly different angle where if they’re going to charge, you call it 10% for a five year note, my thought process was that maybe they think that rates are actually going to increase in the next five years. So if they lock you in for a lower rate, they’re actually going to end up losing money in that five year term. So that’s them kind of trying to hedge their bet. So maybe this bank knows something we don’t know about where rates are going.

Ashley:
I think figure that out as to what rate you could actually get on refinancing your property. Also too, it’s on a 25 year amortization. So if you did a 30 year amortization, that might actually even with a little bit higher rate, that could make your payment closer to what it is now by increasing that amortization, I would then also look at how long do you actually plan to stay in that property. So if you plan to move in a year or two years, then okay, maybe you don’t refinance and pay those extra closing costs and you stay in the property and then you’re going to sell it anyways. But if you plan to stay there for a long time, consider refinancing and looking the comparison of rates and terms and amortization period. Also, the next thing to look at is what are you going to use the funds for?
So is it going to be for a down payment? Is it going to be for the full purchase price of the property? Are you going to do some kind of burr strategy where you’re going to purchase the property? Then you’re actually going to go and refinance anyways because if you do the line of credit, you at some point have to pay that money back and you’re just paying interest only. There are lines of credit where after a certain period of time, if you do not pay it back, it automatically converts into some kind of amortization. So say you get a line of credit, whatever your balance is due and after two years that will automatically turn into a loan and you can have the option to buy a fixed rate at that time, and there’s different intricacies of this, but then they’ll put it into payments amortized over 25 years or something.
So then it does turn into a long-term loan. So you’d want to find out what that interest rates are, what those terms are if you don’t pay off the line of credit during the X amount of time. But if it’s something like you just want to use it for the down payment and you’re going to pay it off quickly, if you have the cashflow from that property, if you have money from your W2 where you just don’t want to delay purchasing something, so you’re going to borrow from the line of credit for your down payment and then you’re going to rapidly pay back that line of credit, then I think that’s a good decision. But if you have no idea or no course of action or plan to actually go and pay that off immediately, that line of credit, just remember on top of your mortgage payment from that second rental, you’re going to have those interest payments to the line of credit. So I think that’s a really important piece to look at as to which way you go as to how you’re going to use the funds too.

Tony:
And I think the last thing to call out here is just how much cash are you actually going to be able to get because you’ve only, and I say only, right, but you’ve got a hundred thousand dollars in equity and let’s say that you’re right, maybe the house actually does appraise for 365 say that you’re able to get up to 80% of that value. 80% of 365 is 292, you owe 2 64, so you’re not even getting 2 92 minus 2 64. It’s $28,000 is what you’d be getting if you were to access 80%. It goes up a little bit if you can tap into 90, but just trying to make sure that there’s some context here on how much of that equity you’ll actually be able to tap into with some of these refinance options. We’re exploring HELOC right now, and I think we were quoted right at about 80%. What’s the highest loan to value that you’ve seen on a line of credit ash?

Ashley:
95%, but that was nine years ago. My first ever partner. That’s how we funded our second deal was he tapped into his equity and got a HELOC on his primary residence and it was up to 95% he was able to take for the heloc. Yeah,

Tony:
That’s true. It might be higher if you’re doing it on a primary, we’re pulling a line on an investment home, so maybe it’s a little bit different there. But yeah, if you can get up to 90, that changes things a little bit. I think you’ll probably go from like 30,000 to 60,000 somewhere in that ballpark. But I just want to make sure, even for the rookies that are listening, just because you have a hundred thousand dollars in equity doesn’t mean you’re going to get all of that $100,000, right? There’s always a little bit of limitation there.

Ashley:
And one thing too, and let me know if this is different for your commercial line of credit, like it being an investment property, because I can’t remember on mine, it’s been a long time since I’ve actually opened one, but usually when you do a eloc, there’s usually no closing cost and a lot of times the bank will even pay for the appraisal or figure.com. They actually do an in-house appraisal too and can actually get you approved in five minutes and you can actually get funded in five days. But with doing a refinance, there can be closing costs attached to that. There are refinances where you can do no closing cost loans, but your interest rate is going to be a little bit higher. So you have to compare how much am I paying extra every year compared to what the closing costs were. So that’s something else to take in comparison to as to the money you would need upfront to pay for closing costs or that would come out. So say you can borrow 80,000, you would have to take 8,000 of that and pay the bank for the closing costs and the fees for that property. Do you know, are you paying closing costs for your line of credit on your investment property?

Tony:
We definitely didn’t pay for an appraisal. I know that the lender we’re working with is charging some points. I dunno, it might be a point or two that they’re charging us on the line of credit to get it established for us, but we’re not even paying for that upfront. It’s just getting rolled into the line of credit itself. So out of pocket expense for us is basically zero. But yeah, there are some fees going back to the lender that’s in the HELOC for us.

Ashley:
We’re going to take a quick break before our last question, but while we’re gone, be sure to subscribe to the real estate Rookie YouTube channel at realestate Rookie. We’ll be right back with more after this.

Tony:
Alright guys, let’s jump back in with our last question. So this one comes from a short-term rental host and it’s definitely an issue that I’ve dealt with in various forms before as well. But this question says our neighbor has 100 acres and freaks out when anyone walks on his property. So their property land’s right next to each other beside our fire pit is the top of a mountain that substantially drops off. He just put up this temporary barrier and if you’re watching on YouTube, you can see the photo of it. But if you’re on the podcast over to the YouTube channel, you can see this photo, but it’s literally a think about construction zone type barrier that he’s put up right in front of this person’s fire pit for their short-term rental. The question goes on to say, I’ll probably get the survey to get the exact location for the property line. I’ve got one idea to maybe plant some evergreen trees that don’t grow too high. But the basic gist of this question is how should this property owner maybe respond or deal with this very, I guess, overzealous neighbor kind of making an eyesore at what should be a focal point for a short-term rental?

Ashley:
Tony, I have to say that I honestly would probably be this neighbor. I wouldn’t want people continuously logging on my property either. I feel like there’s definitely a way better way to handle it than putting up a construction barrier fence for sure. But I guess you are the short-term rental expert here, and if you guys are watching on YouTube, you can see the picture here of this or you saw it and you’re not on the podcast, you’re just listening on the podcast. So right now, this is a beautiful outdoor setting. They have a really nice cabana with it looks like a fire pit, all this beautiful stonework, and then right behind it you see this ugly orange and yellow construction fence basically blocking the view. So I guess, Tony, if this was your property, what would be the first reaction, your first course of action on this?

Tony:
I think before even getting to this point, we always try and reach out to neighbors when we launch a new property because a lot of times when you’re setting up, you’ll see ’em outside poking their heads out, and we’ll just walk over and say, Hey, most of the time sometimes you get neighbors who can just tell don’t want you to be there. And we’re just like, all right, cool. Then there’s not much we can do. But typically we want to start building those neighbor relations when we launch and just go over there and shake hands and say, Hey, my name’s Tony. This is my wife Sarah. We own this property next door. Hey, there’s a short-term rental. But hey, we do our best to be really responsible hosts. Our guests are typically pretty awesome people, but hey, look, if there’s ever an issue, here’s our number. Give us a call. We’ll make sure to get it addressed for you. So I think just extending that olive branch on day one is important. And then if they ever do call, just making sure that you’re actually following up on those issues and keeping them abreast.
We’ve had quite a few neighbor issues with different properties that we own almost the inverse of this, but we had to build a fence because we had a neighbor who was just causing a nuisance for our guests. So I think in this situation, I would reach out to the neighbor first and I’d say, Hey, look, I noticed you put a, Hey, I get it, but hey, what I guess were you seeing or what were you experiencing that made you feel that this was necessary? And just let them vent and they’re just going to go on, they’re going to complain about your guests. Were stepping on my property line and blah, blah, blah, and whatever it may be, understanding that, hey, I get it. Definitely not our intention, and I think there’s probably a way that we can make sure that our guests respect your property line a little bit better. But hey, is there a way that we could maybe do it without the kind of eyesore of this construction tape that you’ve put up, how cover the cost? But just let me know if there’s something we can do to get you to take it down on your side. So I think that would be my first step is calm a levelheaded approach to the neighbor and seeing if we can come to a solution that works for both of us.

Ashley:
I mean, even barbed wire fencing would look better. Oh, nice and rustic Yellowstone feature of the barbed wire fence, the origin yellow construction fence. Yeah, I think that’s a great recommendation.

Tony:
I mean, you can’t keep every neighbor happy, and unfortunately, if that is the case, that is the case. But yeah, I probably would, if the neighbor’s not going to want to play ball, I would put up something on my side of the property line that’s a little bit more aesthetically in line with what we would want for that space. So yeah, privacy, hedges, whatever it may be. If you put up your own fence, it’s actually you’re missing that view. You’ve got a beautiful view, and you’ve probably marketed that a little bit with your Airbnb, but better that than what we see here.

Ashley:
Yeah, we actually, one of the A-frame cabin, it’s just on three acres, but it’s kind of out in the middle of nowhere or most of the surrounding properties have more land. And the one neighbor, once they heard that it was going to be an Airbnb, they went and put posted signs. Actually, it saved us work from having to put up any signs to make sure nobody goes across that. But we also provide in our guidebook an aerial view and kind of an outline of this is the property you have access to. These are the property lines where you can go and enjoy and stuff like that. But they winded in so far. Knock on wood, we haven’t had any issues at all with our neighbors.

Tony:
Neighbors can make things tough for everybody. So neighbor relations day one, always super important.

Ashley:
Well, are you guys enjoying our podcast? Because your support would mean the world to us, and it just takes 30 seconds. If you could please leave us review on Apple Podcasts, it would make a huge difference. Your feedback not only motivates us, but also our team, and we really truly appreciate it. So Tony, I saw that you have a shout out.

Tony:
We do. Someone left a glowing five star review on Apple Podcast. So again, if you’re enjoying the podcast, be sure to leave your honest waiting and review. But this one comes from AJ 1800 and it says, I love listening to this podcast. Listen each time driving to and from my hospital rotation with three exclamation marks. So we appreciate you AJ 1800, and thank you for supporting the podcast.

Ashley:
Yes, thank you, aj. Well, I’m Ashley. And hes Tony. Thank you so much for listening to this episode of Real Estate Rookie. We’ll be back with another episode.

 

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The housing market could do something it’s never done before—permanently reverse. For as long as home prices have been recorded, they’ve always increased over time. But, with one of the largest generations, the Baby Boomers, aging out, and household formation shrinking as birth rates decline, we could face a new problem—insufficient demand.

This is a huge problem for Millennials and the Gen Z generation since buying a house, the primary asset that makes up the majority of many Americans’ net worth, may not be the same wise financial decision as it was before. James Rodriguez joins us on the show to break down his recent article, The millennial homebuying predicament, and why buying a home may get easier for the younger generations, but it could come with less long-term payoff.

For years, economists speculated that a silver tsunamiwould flood the housing market with inventory. What actually ensued, however, was more of a “silver glacier,” since we’re still millions of housing units short. But once these boomer-owned homes hit the market, will prices grow, stall, or decline? What happens to home prices if the population stagnates or reverses? Does buying a home become a riskier decision? James is on to help us answer these questions and share which homes could be the safest bet for long-term demand.

Dave:
The housing market dynamics that we’ve relied on for generations are changing the days when you could buy a home, live in it for 30 years and then retire off. The appreciation might be coming to a close, but just because the Boomer real estate playbook is dead doesn’t mean you can’t use real estate to your long-term financial advantage. And today we’re going to talk about how, Hey everyone, I’m Dave head of Real Estate Investing here at BiggerPockets, and today on the show we are talking with business insider reporter James Rodriguez about a recent article he wrote called The Millennial Home Buying Predicament. In this article, James talks about a long-term shift that experts are seeing in the housing market. Baby boomers, they’re aging out of their homes and US population growth is slowing. So even though not enough new homes are being built, it is possible that housing supply could actually catch up with housing demand over the next few decades.
And of course, if that happens, it’ll have huge effects on how much home prices appreciate during that time. Lots of boomers have seen home prices they bought back in the nineties, triple in value since then. So the question is, can millennials expect homes that they’re maybe buying today to follow that same trend? We’re going to talk about that with James today and much more. And then at the end of the episode, stick around because I’m going to share with you my own take on what this all means for real estate investors because James’s article is mostly focused on people buying their primary homes to live in. But these same demographic dynamics that homes will rise in value over several decades underpin almost every thesis of long-term real estate investing. So at the end, I’ll tell you what I think is likely to happen and how I’m accounting for demographic changes and population growth shifts in my own investing. But that’s going to be at the end of the episode. First, here’s my conversation with Business Insider real estate reporter James Rodriguez. James, welcome back to the BiggerPockets Podcast Network. Thanks for joining us.

James:
Thanks for having me. It’s great to be back.

Dave:
For our audience who hasn’t listened to some of your previous appearances here or on the market, can you just tell us a little bit about yourself and your work?

James:
Yeah, so I’m a senior real estate reporter at Business Insider. I work on a team that focuses on answering big questions or diving into big ideas in the world. And for me that means diving into the big questions in the housing market, so how it works, why certain things work the way they do, and also trying to look ahead to the future and where the housing market is headed from here.

Dave:
Well, you’ve done a great job at it. I read a lot of your work and one of the most recent articles that you wrote was about this interesting predicament that may materialize in the housing market where appreciation, which as real estate investors and as homeowners, we all have sort of come to rely on may actually start slowing down. Can you just tell us a little bit about the fundamentals that you’re writing about here?

James:
Yeah, so this is really all about demographics, population trends, births and deaths. And while demographics can’t tell us everything about housing demand, they can give us a pretty good idea of how many people are going to be wanting homes, what the landscape is going to look like for home buyers and sellers, and talking to people about this. It became really clear that household growth is going to be slowing down significantly. And that comes down to basically baby boomers aging out of the market, a euphemistic term for dying essentially. So you have all these baby boomers that are hitting, they’re going to be hitting 80 next year, 66 million people. It’s the second largest living generation today, and they control a huge portion of the housing market. So when you have that homeownership going away, you have millennials and Gen Z, which slightly smaller than millennials coming in and frankly in uncertain future around immigration. And it creates this scenario where if you bring a lot of these assumptions forward 10 or 15 years, you’re looking at much lower home appreciation, potentially home prices falling in some years because of this imbalance between boomers aging and also the generations behind them coming in.

Dave:
So it sounds like we might see demographic challenges on both ends of the population curve. So we are seeing less births and as you said, there’s uncertainty about the future of immigration that sort of takes care of one side of the picture here, which is how many new people we’re adding to the population in the US. At the same time, baby boomers who were once the biggest generation now are a little bit smaller than millennials are reaching an age where they’re starting to die off. And so these two things combine potentially could lead to lower household formation. And if you haven’t heard that term before, household formation, it’s similar to population and population growth, but it’s actually a bit more relevant to housing because population can go up and down and households, the number of housing units that are required in the United States could fluctuate and move in a different direction.
This is an example I often give, but basically there are, let’s just imagine there are two people who live together as roommates and then they decide to each get their own one bedroom apartment that would create two households, that would be one new household, but without the population changing. And so as we talk about demographic trends and supply and demand in the housing market, that term households and household formation is a super important thing to remember. Now, James, you did a great job sort of explaining the high level trends that are going on here, but I have to admit, people have been saying this about the baby boomers for a long time, at least 10, 12 years. There’s this term that maybe you’ve heard of called the silver tsunami, where I think as far back as 2014 people were saying all the houses are going to hit the housing at the same time when boomers start dying off or they’re going to move to assisted living and that’s going to cause this glut of supply in the housing market. Obviously that has not materialized as of late. So what is different about what you’re saying here than what we’ve been hearing and hasn’t come true in the last couple of years?

James:
So this storyline that I lay out in the story is really much more gradual. I’ve talked to experts who have described it more as a silver glacier. It’s slow moving, but over time you see these effects. And so the experts that I was talking to in the papers that I was reading, they’re not talking about all of a sudden millions of baby boomers are just gone overnight. And it’s like the flip of a switch where home prices crash. What this argument is really talking about is a much slower, more gradual decline is household growth slows down. It’s not even that the population necessarily in the US is even falling, but that with the smaller household growth, with more boomers dying off and they control about 41% of real estate in the US today. So over the next decade, decade and a half as that happens, you in theory would start to see home prices start to level off, maybe grow slightly in some years, decline slightly in some years. This company that I was talking to, home llc, they’re a housing analytics and consulting firm and they project home prices to grow in the 2030s, maybe a percent, half a percent every year, averaging out some of those. And so it’s not the kind of silver tsunami giant crash that I think people have hyped up frankly, but it’s still pretty significant when you look back at the home prices growing during the pandemic by 50% from the start to now. And so that’s an extreme difference.

Dave:
It is, and I just have to say generally I find these types of analyses where they say something’s going to change slowly, much more credible, especially in the housing market. So there’s more fun and you’ll get more YouTube clicks if you say there’s going to be a silver tsunami. But looking at long-term trends, and especially with demographics, these things move slowly. So that does lend some credibility, at least in my book, to the analysis that you’re reporting on here. Now, one point of clarification, James, you said that prices might grow half percent, 1%. Is that nominal, like non inflation adjusted home prices or are those real inflation adjusted prices?

James:
Yeah, so that’s nominal.

Dave:
Oh wow.

James:
And so yeah, you think about the real returns that somebody would be seeing over that timeframe, and it starts to be a much, much more bleak picture for people who own homes, say somebody who’s buying a home now and they didn’t collect all that appreciation during the pandemic, and they may be counting on reaping similar benefits to previous generations. I think something to consider here too is real estate, as I’m sure you mentioned a lot in your podcast, is very local. So this is a very broad national picture. So within individual markets it could be very different based on how the market is growing. But taking that average nationwide and you think about the increase in which baby boomers are going to be aging out over the next decade, it’s really significant. Their numbers are projected to shrink by about 23% or about 15.6 million people out of 66 million baby boomers today. Wow, that’s a lot. And you think that’s a lot of real estate they own too?

Dave:
Absolutely. A couple things. First and foremost, thank you for mentioning that this is a national trend and we are going to probably continue mostly talking about nationally because it’s very difficult for us to predict local or regional housing market trends in the 2030s at this point. So I think it’s safe to say, and for our audience, just remember that this is not going to happen everywhere. Equally, it might happen everywhere, but there’s going to be differences in regions. Some regions might still grow faster than the national average. So just keep that in mind. The second thing, just to clarify what I asked James earlier, is that it’s really important as investors for us to compare our returns and the growth in our money to the rate of inflation, because as you probably know, inflation is the devaluation of your dollar. It means that prices go up and you get to buy less with every dollar that you have.
And so what I asked James is the prices nominal or real nominal means not inflation adjusted and real means inflation adjusted. And what James said is that prices may only go up half a percent or 1% in nominal non inflation adjusted returns. And so that means if you think about that, just imagine a world where the fed gets our inflation target back to what they want, which is like 2%. And so that means if your home price is only going 1% and inflation is at 2%, that your home value is not keeping pace with inflation, that’s assuming that you buy it for all cash. But that’s just how you should probably be thinking about that as an investor. We’ve gotten used to for decades, for centuries, honestly, that home prices have at least kept pace with inflation in the long-term average. And if that changes, that is a very, very significant difference that as investors we’re all going to have to think about and adjust to.
Alright, so we do have to take a quick break, but when we come back, James, I’d love to talk to you a little bit more about sort of the other side of the equation. We’ve talked a little bit about demand here, but let’s get into the supply side right after this before we move on. Today’s show is brought to you by simply the all in one CRM built for real estate investors. Automate your marketing skip trace for free, send direct mail and connect with your leads all in one place. Head over to emmp.com/biggerpockets now to start free trial and get 50% off your first month.
Hey everyone, welcome back to the BiggerPockets Real Estate podcast. I’m here with reporter James Rodriguez talking about a really interesting potential dynamic that’s forming in the housing market where we might see lower demand for housing starting in the 2030s and maybe beyond that. Now, James, we’ve talked a little bit about demand. We’ve talked about baby boomers reaching this age where they’re dying off or moving into assisted living. We’ve talked about some smaller generations coming. You’ve talked a little bit about immigration. Can we dig in there a little bit? Maybe you could just tell us about how immigration has traditionally played a role in both supply and demand in the housing market and where it might be going from here.

James:
So if population growth is indeed falling, and at 1.1 of the professors that I talked to for this story, they talk about if you see these trends continuing where you have more deaths, fewer births, eventually we’re going to reach this point where population growth in the US will be entirely reliant on immigration. So the assumptions that I’m talking about here, it basically brings forward kind of a baseline estimation of annual immigration, net immigration being about 870,000 people. The interesting thing about immigration is that’s really, it’s kind of the easiest lever to pull here in terms of policy. It may be harder to incentivize builders to build a lot, but you can incentivize demand by just allowing more people into the country. And so I think it makes it, the biggest question mark here is what is immigration going to look like in the future? Is it going to be enough to offset some of this slowdown that we’re seeing in population? And if immigration increases substantially, then we’re looking at a very different scenario than the one that I’ve outlined here. But even if you assume higher immigration, the basic outline of this trend still holding where with slower household growth that could allow construction to catch up. And if that happens, you’re seeing less of this lopsidedness that has really encouraged some of the home price growth or a lot of the home price growth that we’ve seen over the past decade where you have builders basically not keeping pace with the demand for housing.

Dave:
That makes sense to me. I think what you said about having immigration being the big lever is true. And I don’t pretend to know what immigration policy is going to be in the future, but if you look at other countries, right, a lot of countries are facing these declining birth rates and you see places like Japan and South Korea have been trying to incentivize higher birth rates and it’s just not working. And so it’s hard to imagine without some cultural change that birth rates are going to change in the short term. And even if that does happen, that could take 20, 25 years before it has an impact on household formation and housing demand. As you said, builders are sort of fickle businesses, and so it would be very difficult for them to take on the risk of building more homes without some sort of assurances. And so I agree with you that immigration is probably the big lever, how that lever gets pulled or that knob gets turned, we don’t know, but it is something that I think as people who are following and trying to understand the housing market need to keep a close eye on going forward, especially as in five, 10 years from now when some of these trends might start to materialize.
So talk to me more James about builders and how they’re reacting to this. Is this even on their radar? Are they sort of just building for a year from now?

James:
They’re looking ahead and they’re trying to forecast demand, but I think one of the arguments that I’ve seen made and some of the papers that I referenced in the story is that the lever pullers in our country, the builders and the policymakers, they don’t have a great track record of reading the tea leaves decade, decade and a half in the future. And that’s understandable because they have so many present day concerns. And we’re here talking about tariffs and the current immigration issues and what is demand going to look like a year from now? What kind of incentives do builders have to give buyers today to combat higher mortgage rates? So all of that stuff is going on, and I think again, an example of the mismatch that can happen here is these smart builders, builders that they’re trying to make money, but after the great recession, you saw construction activity reaching half a century lows.
And so that’s when this demand wave from millennials was on the way. Everybody, if you looked at the demographics at that time, the way that I’m trying to do in this store, you could see that wave coming. And so that’s a big question mark as well. Every year, the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies releases a report that dives into many of the topics that I cover in this paper in terms of what is the demand going to look like in the future, what are the demographics telling us and how much building needs to happen in order to keep pace with that. And so one of the interesting things is that they highlight is America probably needs to build about 11.3 million homes over the next decade to keep up with the population forecasts and just 8 million new units between 2035 and 2045. That’s just the new household formation, the new household demand that’s not accounting for whatever shortage we have today, which depending on where you look, it’s in the millions, but it sounds like a lot of homes, right?
11 million, 8 million. Those are actually pretty modest goals when you look at home building activity. Historically, even during the 2010s, which was one of the weakest decades for home building activity, you saw new construction, again, lowest in more than half a century, builders still finished almost 10 million units, and in the two thousands they built 17 million. So we know that a lot has changed in the home building industry since then. You’ve seen a lot more consolidation, but these are not unreasonable goals here. And so as demand for homes slows down, you could see construction have a chance to catch up and even start to meet some of that shortage that we have today. And so again, that’s a huge question mark here is what construction activity is going to look like. But if you bring some of these assumptions forward, it’s going to be a lot easier for home builders to keep pace.

Dave:
Yeah, I imagine in the short term, builders don’t really care, especially the big ones. They’re publicly traded companies. They’re trying to make a profit in the next six months or a year, and if there’s demand for housing right now, they’re going to build. They don’t really care that much, that home price appreciation might slow in 10 years
As homeowners or real estate investors are people who are going to hold on to inventory over a long period of time. We hear about the direction of home prices and how our equity is going to change. Builders really just care. Can they sell it at their performer price and a reasonable timeframe and get that inventory off their books and book their profits? And so my guess is that we’re not going to see a big change in home building, at least as it pertains to this trend. Of course, home builders are still going to react to interest rates and short-term fluctuations, but I have a hard time imagining them really caring about these long-term trends. So I don’t know if we’re going to get any indication of where supply is going from builders just by nature, and it makes sense. Their business model is short-term.

James:
They’re definitely responding to the economic signals that they’re getting right now, and that’s a very different story than looking 15 years into the future.

Dave:
We do have to take a quick break, but when we come back, James, you wrote extensively about the financial implications of what this actually means for millennials and homeowners, and I’d love to dive into that. We’ll be right back. Welcome back to the BiggerPockets podcast. I’m here with reporter James Rodriguez from Business Insider, and we’re talking about the millennial home buying predicament. James, you did mention that this is mostly focused on millennials, but it does seem like it’s really for all homeowners that this is something that we should be thinking about, or is there something financially that is particularly pertinent for millennials?

James:
I think really the cutoff is did you benefit from these home price gains during the pandemic or over the last couple of decades, or are you buying a home today or in 2022 when the market had at the peak of this frenzy right before interest rates really took off and tamped down demand? What does the future look like for you compared to say, a baby boomer who bought their home in 1994 and has ridden out some of the cycles, but ultimately has a pretty sizable gain here. And so it’s a really starkly different picture.

Dave:
There is a window here where you haven’t benefited from previous equity gains and you’re not benefiting from improved affordability that might come in a couple of years, right? Because I think you can make the argument that a millennial or a Gen Z if you don’t already own home, or if you’re not thinking about buying right now, that this is a net win. Because if prices flatten right now and wages continue to go up and maybe mortgage rates come down, that’s going to be an easier time to buy a home. And so really, right now it seems like a particularly pressing question for people.

James:
I think the only thing I’d add to that is the mentality of home buyers is, and the way that I’ve had it described to me is a lot of people don’t want to catch a falling knife. So if they’re seeing that home prices are maybe declining a little bit or stagnating and the future is murky, they might not look at it as the same valuable asset that they should pour so much of their savings into
As previous generations did. So during the pandemic, we saw a lot of this, I have described it as fomo, buying fear of missing out where people felt like they could see the train leaving. They just wanted to get on however they could because they anticipated future increases in the value of their home. And so you may be willing to stretch yourself today if you think it’ll pay off in the future, say homes get more affordable in the future, but the outlook for appreciation is murky. That could discourage some people from purchasing a home. And of course, I think it’s also really important to mention that home ownership comes with all of these other benefits that aren’t reflected in just the returns you have, the stability you have the 30 year mortgage, which is an incredible gift to homeowners that lets you lock in your payments for decades. You have the tax benefits that come with homeownership and just all the lifestyle of things too, if you want a backyard for your dog, et cetera.

Dave:
Yeah, stability of just knowing where you’re going to live and what your biggest expense is going to be over time. Of course.

James:
Exactly. Exactly. Yeah. You get into this scenario where, yeah, people might look at home buying differently if they feel like they can’t rely on reaping some of the other financial returns that they’ve seen their maybe boomer parents read.

Dave:
For sure. Yeah. I think at least in the real estate investing community, there is a big debate about your primary residence and whether or not it’s an investment in the first place I fall on the side that it can be if you want it to be, if you go and buy your dream home and overpay for it, that’s not a good investment. But if you do a live and flip or a house hack, there are ways to turn it into a good investment. But I think the broader American culture believes that buying a home is the path to wealth that has proven to be true for previous generations. And I’m not saying that just owning a primary home is going to make you fabulously wealthy, but historically, if you bought a home with debt on it, appreciation has helped at very least been a forced savings account.
With a solid savings rate, you’re probably earning several percentage points at least as good as a bond or a high yield savings account, or probably better. You add that to the amortization and the tax benefits, the stability that you mentioned, it has been a good idea for people for a really long time. And although we’re still a few years away from this, I have to wonder how that might change people’s decision making. Like you said, perhaps people will still buy homes, but they’ll put less money down or they’ll be more ambitious about investing because they’ll need to put money into the stock market or into other investments to earn the returns and plan for retirement without their home. I’m curious though, if anyone you talked to for this story mentioned how behavior might change among home buyers in the future.

James:
It could very well be this recalibration of what exactly is a home supposed to function as? And I think the thing that I think about a lot is this paradox of the housing market, which is people are rooting for affordability. They want to get their foot in the door, but also homeowners are rooting for appreciation and seeing the value of their home go up. And so those things are kind of diametrically opposed. And finding a balance, I think is the key where it’s not insane home a price appreciation like we’ve seen during the pandemic, but also not the kind of falling knife scenario that I mentioned. And so it’ll be really interesting to see how people adjust their expectations in the future if this does play out the way that it could.

Dave:
Yeah. And that dynamic, at least to me, is not new, right? There is always sort of this push and pull between existing homeowners who want to maintain, at the very least, maintain the value of their properties or increase them, and then people who are advocating for more housing, more supply to make housing more affordable. And like you said, I believe that some sense of balance is the right thing. For many years, we saw home prices modestly outpace inflation. For me, that would be a great thing that we could get back to where people aren’t losing their nest egg, but also the American dream of home ownership remains attainable for the majority of Americans. And we’ve been in this crazy housing market for years where that is not the case, and I certainly hope we don’t sort of swing in the total opposite direction and instead we can land somewhere else in the middle. Well, James, thank you so much. This has been amazing. Is there anything else we missed here that you think our audience should know?

James:
I think that really covers it. I think it’s important to keep in mind that there are a lot of assumptions going into this, but also I think looking at the demographics is really fascinating because it tells the story that’s kind of divorced from the economic side of things and the shocks and all of that. And it really just gets into how many people are going to have looking for homes and how is that going to change in the future? And if we had paid attention to some of these demographic signals in the past, we could have maybe been better predicted what happened during the pandemic. Of course, the pandemic and low interest rates was its own shock. But when you just look at the population trends, they tell a story that I think is compelling and something that I think everyone should at least be paying attention to and thinking about as we move forward and look ahead to next decade, decade plus.

Dave:
Awesome. Well, thank you so much, James. We appreciate you being here.

James:
Thank you. Great to be here.

Dave:
All right. Another big thanks to James. Before we go, I just want to share one or two thoughts because this trend, if it does materialize, could really change our entire industry. Long-term appreciation has been sort of one of the bedrocks of not just real estate investing and of the upside error principles that I’ve been talking about, but about American home ownership and honestly, a lot of American society. So should people investing now be worried that homes are going to become less valuable or they’re not going to keep pace with inflation in the future? And my feeling right now is that it’s still a little bit too early to understand exactly how this is all going to play out. A lot of that is because we’ve been in this very weird unusual housing market for the last five years that it’s hard to get a true sense of where supply and demand really lies.
And until the housing market normalizes a bit more, I think it’s really difficult to project into the 2030s. That said, the demographic trends are sort of easy to predict, right? These are really slow moving things. We know how many people are in Gen Z, we know what the birth rate is. And although that can change, the trend has been steadily moving downward for quite a long time, and it’s hard to imagine that’s going to shift. And even if it does start to reverse, that’s probably going to happen slowly as well. And so I think at least the way I’m going to treat this is I am going to start thinking about how to mitigate this, not right now. This is not sort of one of the priority top concerns on my mind, but in the next year or two, I think I’m going to start thinking about one, what regions are likely going to be able to offset some of these demographic trends?
It honestly makes me think, what I’ve often believed and talked about is that buying in markets where there is going to be at least solid appreciation and focusing more on that than cashflow might be something that I start prioritizing more. And I’ll talk about that more on the show. And then similar to the question that I asked James, what asset classes are going to remain in demand? Because there are still going to be assets, certain neighborhoods, certain types of homes that are going to grow faster than inflation, faster than the national average. And we as a community should probably start thinking about that over the next couple of years. But again, it’s not something that I’m going to run and start selling my portfolio and reshifting everything right now, but it’s something that I’m going to start thinking about a lot more over the next couple of years.
So that’s the first thought. The second thing is, to me, this trend sort of underscores the reason why real estate investors and Americans in general really need to take retirement into their own hands because we’re talking about sort of really big fundamental shifts in American society here, where if home price appreciation isn’t what it has been for the last several decades or the last century, that is going to eliminate one of the most reliable paths to retirement and to having sort of a nest egg that we’ve had in the United States. The other thing is, we talk about this a little bit on the show, but social security is set to become insolvent and not pay out fully in 2035. We don’t know where that’s going to go, and it’s going to take a lot of twists and turns, but we’re talking about two sort of bedrocks of American retirement being up in the air.
And for me, that just underscores why everyone, whether it’s through real estate investing or 401k or starting your own business, really needs to think about how to take your financial future and retirement into their own hands. And I still, despite everything that James just said, believe that real estate is the best way to pursue financial independence. I actually created a whole video about this. If you want to watch this on YouTube or listen to the episode, you can check it out. It’s from January 16th, 2025. But I still believe that real estate is an excellent way to pursue financial freedom. If that changes in the future, I will let you know. But for the time being, I still don’t see any other better way that you can improve your own financial future than through real estate investing. Thank you all so much for listening to this episode. I assume that you’re going to all have a lot of questions about this data. If you do, if you’re watching on YouTube, make sure to put the comments below. Or if you’re listening on audio, you could always hit me up either on BiggerPockets or on Instagram where I’m at the data deli. Thank you all so much for listening to this episode of the BiggerPockets Podcast. I’ll see you next time.

 

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Fear that early retirement is out of the question because you have too much debt? It’s not game over. Whether you’re debt-free or still chipping away at your student loans, today’s guests are proof that FIRE is never too far out of reach—even if you’ve got half a million dollars in debt!

Welcome back to the BiggerPockets Money podcast! Amirra and Mazi Condelee’s first date was an all-timer. While many consider personal finance a taboo topic, they cut right to the money talk—specifically, debt. And it was a good thing they did because they’ve racked up a combined $500,000 in student debt. Most would assume this spells doom for financial independence, but Amirra and Mazi knew they could pay it off by increasing their income, cutting costs, and staying disciplined.

In just five years, they’ve snowballed out of student loan debt and toward their long-term goal—retiring in their 50s. Now that this power couple is nearly debt-free, they’re focused on saving for retirement. Tune in to learn what they still need to do to reach their (high) FIRE number, why they refuse to downsize their dreams, and how they plan to spend their retirement!

Mindy:
Imagine being asked on a first date how much student loan debt you have while still trying to make a good impression over dinner. For our guests, this unexpected question became the catalyst for a complete financial transformation. What would you do if you suddenly realized you were about to graduate with $275,000 in student loan debt and your future spouse was bringing an additional $230,000 into the mix? Most couples might panic or avoid the topic altogether, but our guests took a different approach together. They developed a strategy that eliminated over half a million dollars in student loan debt in just five years. Hello, hello, hello and welcome to the BiggerPockets Money podcast. My name is Mindy Jensen and as Scott is out on paternity leave, Amanda Wolfe is stepping in and filling his shoes. Amanda, thanks so much for joining me today.

Amanda:
Thanks for having me. I’m excited to be here. Give Scott A. Little rest.

Mindy:
Yes,

Amanda:
BiggerPockets has a goal of creating 1 million millionaires. You are in the right place if you want to get your financial house in order because we truly believe financial freedom is attainable for everyone, no matter when or where you’re starting. Today we’re joined by Amirra and her husband Mazi and I am so excited to hear more about their money story today. Hello, hello, hello and thanks for being here.

Amirra:
Hi. Thank you so much for having us. We are pumped to do this episode together.

Mazi:
So excited.

Mindy:
Okay, I want to know which one of you asked the other one about the student loan debt on the first date?

Mazi:
That was me. I was the one who brought that conversation up on the first date. We were having lunch

Mindy:
On a lunch date. It wasn’t even a dinner

Mazi:
Date. There were no dates section on this first date, so I think it was a Sunday brunch kind of thing, and we were getting talking, getting to know each other. The question I understood she was in school, but she was in school doing a clinical rotation outside of the state that she was in school. She was in school in Boston, but she was in Houston doing this clinical rotation and I was just like, wow, that’s a long ways from home. I was like crunching the numbers in my head. I was like, wait a minute, so you’re paying for housing and travel living outside of a place where you’re not at school at? I just imagined. I was like, man, that’s a big undertaking financially, especially living off of student loans. So mentally I was running the numbers in my head and that’s how we got to wait a minute. So how much did loan debt you going to have after all of this?

Mindy:
Did you not want a second date? It was a good test. I think my response was

Amirra:
A get test.

Mindy:
Yeah. Well, and I want to know how you felt when he asked that because the money nerd in me is so proud of Ozzie for asking that like, wait a second, what kind of debt are we talking about girl? But also the romantic in me is like, come on Mozzie, that’s not the first date question.

Amirra:
Full transparency. I was older, but I was still pretty new to this concept of dating honestly, and so I had never been on a first date and had someone ask me anything financially related, so I was like, is this normal? I know I’m a little inexperienced with dating, but is this normal? And so I don’t know. I was so taken aback. I was so caught off guard, but it really did kind of give me insight into who Mozzie was as a person on that first date and I was like, I don’t mind it. I like that he is straightforward. I like that he likes transparency and so I was like, these are all qualities that I would enjoy in a partner anyways. But it definitely took me back a little bit, but it wasn’t a deal breaker obviously because here we are married five years later before

Mindy:
We get all on Amira’s case. Ozzy one of you had $275,000, one of you had 230,000, so it’s not like you’re coming in here all innocent.

Mazi:
Fair, fair. However, I didn’t start my debt journey until after we’ve been dating for about, what was it, eight months.

Speaker 5:
So

Mazi:
I was going to graduate school. She was on the tail end of graduate school and we met right before I started about six months before I started and about six months before she ended. So I didn’t have that much debt yet. I knew I was going to, but I didn’t have that much debt yet. I knew the ROI on what I was going into debt for was kind of worth it, so I wasn’t too concerned.

Mindy:
Okay. What did you study?

Mazi:
I studied anesthesia. I went to nurse anesthesia school. I was a registered nurse prior to that, so I was working in Houston as a registered nurse in the ICU, and then I decided to get into graduate school and studied, it’s called certified registered Nurse Anesthetist.

Amanda:
Freaking Power couple. Yeah.

Mazi:
So yeah, I got in. I knew about eight months before that I was going to graduate school and then we kind of met when we were about, was about six months out.

Mindy:
Okay. So you are starting to date, you’re realizing that you’re going to have a large amount of student loan debt when you are both done with school. How did that feel? I see this number on the paper and I am kind of sweating and it’s not even mine.

Amirra:
I think that we knew that the debt was kind of looming while we were dating, but I will say we didn’t really have a ton of conversations really about my debt in particular until we were thinking about marriage. So then we were like, okay, obviously we love each other, we want to get married, we have to talk about finances. And so that’s when Mozzie kind of re-brought into the conversation, Hey, you’ve graduated now you’re in a lot of student loan debt. And I think that when we realized how much we were going to have collectively, I don’t know, I was a lot more, we’ll deal with that when the time comes. We don’t have to talk about that right now. Whereas Mozzie was very much like, no, we need a plan of action immediately today. And I was like, I don’t even know my total numbers. I don’t want to log into my student loan account. I don’t want to look at this thing. I just want to ignore it. I’m probably going to be in debt until I die. That was very much my mindset at the time, and it wasn’t until we started having those conversations right before we got married that it was like, no, we have to actually come up with a plan to get rid of the debt.

Mazi:
When we first met, I mean we both knew we dated for those six to eight months. It was kind of like, all right, we’re going to put a pin in this
Until you start working and we figure that out. It was always in the back of my mind, but as we got closer to getting married and everything, that’s when it was like, okay, realistically this is a big number that we’re bringing in to both sides of the marriage. We needed to have a plan of action because most people, I don’t think she logged into her student loans until I remember sitting in my little apartment for graduate school and I was like, you need to actually just log in and see what it is. She was already graduated. I was like, you need to know what just a base payment is for these before we get too far here. So that was kind of an eye shocking moment honestly. Once you logged in and we saw the interest that AC cured and the actual

Mindy:
Number, were you taking out student loans simply for your student costs, like housing and food and school and books and all of that, or were you taking it out for other things as well?

Amirra:
So Max borrowed, I took everything out to cover housing my car, all the things that happened during the three years that I was in OT school. And so the loans paid for me to live basically for those three years. So I came out with significantly more than I should have because I wasn’t watching my living costs. That was the biggest thing. I didn’t have a lot of roommates. I lived in a really nice apartment as a grad student. I had a car leases, I took vacations and I’m super open about admitting all of the mistakes that I made to get to this point. And so it was a massive number, but it’s not every OT is in this much student loan debt. I just made a lot of mistakes because I just lacked the financial literacy and the money didn’t feel real as I was taking it out. I was like, oh, I got a refund check. Great. This is income. And it’s like you don’t think about the fact that no, actually Amir, you have to pay that back later. So I wasn’t thinking that way, but to answer your question, yeah, the money that I took out was to do all of these different things while I was three years without really having a real job. I was like a nanny and I didn’t newborn care specialist, but I didn’t have an actual job job while I was in OT school.

Mindy:
I think that’s really important to note. You just said something that’s like the million dollar quote of this show. You said the money didn’t feel real. It kind of isn’t real because it’s this on paper money, it’s on the internet money. It’s not in your hands that you are then paying to somebody. You’re just transferring from here to here. It was never yours to begin with. So what is something that you think you would do differently if it had felt real or what’s a way that it could have felt more real to you? I’m not saying, wow, Amira, what a big mistake. You’re not even close. The first person I’ve heard say this,

Amirra:
The first thing I would’ve done differently is think about the actual school I was enrolling in. So I went to a private school that was out of state in a very high cost of living area, which made all of my groceries, rent, everything go up. So I would not have, it was a great school, don’t get me wrong, but I wouldn’t have chosen that school because I couldn’t afford to have gone to that school. If I think about it on paper, it was a really expensive school. The other thing I would’ve done differently is the type of degree that I got. So I went for an entry level doctorate, which is really, really expensive, whereas I could have gone and gotten a master’s and then maybe taken a year and done the doctorate program later. At the time, I thought that our profession, it’s very similar to pt.
There’s some differences there, but PT is a required doctorate, and I thought that OT was moving towards a required doctorate, and so that’s why I went and got the really expensive degree. So those were definitely the big two factors. I think for me, I should have just went to a cheaper public school, got a master’s degree and kind of went from there. But yeah, that’s a big part. I would’ve done differently I think. And then there’s the small things, maybe not gone to every single brunch that I was invited to and maybe not gone on a trip to the tropical overseas. Little things that I did that I was like, I probably couldn’t really, I probably couldn’t have afforded to do that if I think about it

Amanda:
Or even not taken all the loans. You also said something earlier that was like, I took out the max amount. And I think that a lot of people don’t realize that while you’re in that application phase and you are offered these loans, you can decline a couple of them because usually several coming in at once. And so I think that’s something that people don’t realize too, is that you don’t actually have to take every dollar that’s offered up to you at that time.

Mindy:
My dear listeners, we want to hit 100,000 subscribers on our YouTube channel and we need your help. While we take a quick ad break, please hop on over to youtube.com/biggerpockets money and make sure you are subscribed to that channel. We’ll be right back after this.

Amanda:
Thanks for sticking with us. So my next question then is around what your finances looked like before even meeting and going into school. So what did those look like? It seemed like mozzie was a little more proactive, if you will, when it came to his finances and you were more maybe focused on the end goal of getting your degree, but what did your finances look like before that?

Mazi:
Well, to be fair, she never actually started working. She was undergraduate graduate school, no break in between, so that’s that seven years and that’s when I’m nurse. So she didn’t really have the chance to be a working adult where me, on the other hand, I was a working adult. I, I’m a little bit older and I was working as A-I-C-U-R-N for probably five years when I met her. So I already had bought in my first house, I already had a paid off car and I already drained down. I think I only had 80,000 coming out of undergraduate and it was at 20,000. So I’ve already had, I was making money, paying for things,

Amirra:
Investing,

Mazi:
Investing, traveling. I was doing all that. I was already full adult at the age of 23. I had a little bit more of a head start to be fair.

Amanda:
So you were already investing then Mozzie?

Mazi:
Yes.

Amanda:
Okay. And then what about you, Amira?

Amirra:
No, so like he said, I came straight from undergrad, so I honestly still kind of had college girl mentality. I wasn’t thinking about the big girl things. I wasn’t thinking about investing for retirement. I wasn’t thinking about any of that. But I also didn’t have a real job. I was doing nannying work, but that’s babysitting, and so that was helping fund some of my stuff in college, but I didn’t have an actual professional career, so I wasn’t really thinking about that kind of stuff. Honestly, very much in goal. I was like, well, once I become an ot, once I have the degree, then I’ll think about all of these different things, but I didn’t have the income to even sustain thinking about my finances. There’s things I should have been doing and I could have been doing, just tracking my spending, just watching my overall spending, thinking more about saving.
The one thing I will credit myself, I was never into credit cards, so I had a credit card, but I used it very responsibly, so I never got into credit card debt. I always make sure to paid it off that month. So that was a big thing. The only thing I really thought about was, oh, I can’t go into credit card debt. I know that’s really bad, but to me student loan debt and credit card debt were two very different things. And so it made no, I didn’t bat an eyelash taking out over 200 grand of student loans, but if I had $200 in my credit card, I would be like, oh my gosh, I can’t have that. So I just think we were in two very different seasons of life. Like you said, we’re about four years apart, so we were just in very two different seasons of life. So I think that is why we approached our financial situations so differently.

Amanda:
I do want to talk a little bit about your actual debt payoff journey. So you had mentioned that you were getting pretty aggressive in the last couple of years paying off the debt. So what specifically changed in your approach during that period that accelerated your progress?

Amirra:
I think it starts with the birth of Jaden.

Speaker 5:
Yeah.

Amirra:
Yeah. So we had our first baby. So Mozzie had just graduated. We had our first baby and I decided I wanted to become a stay-at-home mom, and we made the decision together. We talked about what would that look like financially for me to lose my income. I wasn’t making as much as mazie, but it was still a significant amount to the household. And so we were like, okay, what does that look like? And so we were like, well, if I don’t want to work, then we’re going to have to replace my income. And so we started thinking about how can Mozzie replace his income without necessarily having to work more, because at the time, we were living in a place where it’s super busy, it was a big city and he was doing 24 hour shifts and he would be gone for two to three days straight.
And we had a new baby, we had a newborn. He did that one time and I was like, oh no, I’m going to lose all my marbles if you do that again. So we got to figure something else out. And so we started thinking about, it’s called locums, which is very similar to travel nursing. And so you go to high paying locations and you’re able to make significantly more without necessarily having to work more. And so we decided to move about three hours from where we were living at the time. We’re very far from our friends, our family. I would say that was the biggest sacrifice when it came to our debt payoff journey. And it was so that Mazy would be able to quickly increase his income without necessarily having to be gone more and still give us a really healthy work-life balance now that we had a baby.
But I think it was definitely having a baby. I mean, having a baby just makes you think about everything differently. And so that was for sure kind of the catalyst with being like, okay, let’s figure out how to increase your income. And then in terms of when we decided to get aggressive, it was really, Mazy was just so tired of the loans, which I’ll let you talk more about why you decided to, because we met with a financial coach, shout out to Shung. She’s from Save My Sense. And we met with her and she combed through all of our finances and she had put us on a plan to pay them off at the end of this year, and we paid it off at the beginning of this year. So we were pretty early in her plan that she made for us. But I guess I’ll let you share why you decided to get aggressive.

Mazi:
So you kind of start obsessing over it when you’re paying these, at least I did. I would log in and look at the balance three or four times a day. It was becoming obsessive to the point where you knew down to the scent how much you had, you knew down to the scent how much interest secured from the last time you logged in and you knew, Hey, when I get paid, I’m going to put this much on it. And it became a little bit of an addiction, honestly. You wanted to see the number gone and you really gain some steam when you saw that principal balance going down because most people, when they pay the loans off, they do maybe once a month payment interest takes a big chunk and then the rest goes to principal. But when you see that principal number going down in big chunks, mentally it feels your fire or you try to at least make it seem like it does, it makes you want to do it again and again and again.
And it almost becomes like a game like, oh wow, I see it went from 60 to now 50 and that just makes you sleep a little better at night and less interest is being a cured and you just get the steam and you just go after it. So I had to obsess over it for a good two years, and I really started the last year just like nothing else mattered other than getting that balance to zero. I really wanted to be done before beginning of this year, but we had another baby and we slowed down a little

Mindy:
Bit. I hear babies are expensive, huh?

Mazi:
Yeah, they’re not cheap.

Mindy:
Okay. So I hear the obsession. I understand where you’re coming from, and I had a similar obsession. Don’t think that I’m perfect in every way. Not my whole PHI journey was very much head down, nose to the grindstone, do it, do it, do it. And we didn’t take time to stop and smell the roses. How do you balance the immediate goal of debt payoff with living your life with investing for the future? How did you specifically balance it or did you not? I mean, I didn’t balance it at all. We saved for the future and did nothing fun.

Mazi:
No, we definitely saved for the future. So a little background, I chose a place where they cover my housing, they pay a higher rate, I could work a little bit more hours, and I had a pretty cool schedule where I’m home during the mornings. I just go in the evening so I could help out with breakfast and lunch with the babies. So we had to move far away to find this location that had hit all those boxes. They paid me enough where if I worked, I couldn’t do the student loan journey, however, I could not make a student loan payment. And then that was our payment for fun. So for example, for her 30th birthday, we went to a Caribbean island and hung out, got to take a week off. I just didn’t make a student loan payment that, and that extended it out a little longer. But I did recognize you got to take your smell, the roses moment, especially after two years. And then having the kids too, you had to enjoy and smell the flowers. However, our baseline would have moments of joy, but our baseline was still very low housing, housing debt or cost to live. And when we’re just doing our regular day to day, most of our income went to the loans

Amirra:
Because we kept our expenses so low, so we didn’t pay expenses, pay housing, both of our cars are paid off. I think our biggest, it’s probably groceries and Pilates, honestly, that’s our biggest expense expenses right now. So we definitely budgeted for those. But I think our income was able to support, like you said, those little moments of joy. I was not going to let him just obsess over the loans and then not have any fun for several years. I was like, we can’t do that. So I think I brought a little bit of the balance too to Mazy because I wasn’t quite obsessing over them. I definitely wanted to see them gone too, but I was also like, we have to enjoy life at the same time. I don’t subscribe to just eating off.

Amanda:
What did your saving and investing look like during that debt pay down journey? So did you guys take a pause during that? Were you doing little bits?

Mazi:
I did the bare minimum just to reach whatever the maximum retirement for the 401k was. It wasn’t a ton. We didn’t do any extra investing. We didn’t do any saving really other than just we kept a three month emergency.

Amirra:
We have a eight month emergency fund that we saved a long time ago before we even had our first. So we didn’t prioritize saving money necessarily because we already had an emergency fund. So any extra money really went towards investing. But we did already have, I just want to be clear, we did already have a healthy emergency fund, so that’s why we weren’t needing to necessarily save money. And we did investing for 5 29.

Mazi:
We did five

Amirra:
HSA. Yeah, those

Mazi:
Things, we maxed out the accounts that would make sense, but we didn’t do anything extra like a tax brokerage.

Amanda:
But you do have a tax brokerage.

Mazi:
I do now,

Amanda:
Now that the debt has been paid down. So yeah, what is, because the debt pay down journey is very recent, so now you guys probably feel like you’re just flush with cash, I’m guessing. So what does it look like now? How are you saving and investing now that the debt’s paid off?

Amirra:
And you also did an add that you’re an independent contractor. And so one of the big pieces to the puzzle, we have an amazing tax team who’s really good at tax strategy. They don’t just input numbers and that’s it, but they actually help us save most of the money that he makes, which is massive. When you’re trying to pay off that much, you have to be able to actually save money and not owe so much in taxes. So I think that was a big part that maybe Mozzie didn’t say yet was he’s a contractor. And so saving on taxes allowed us to put big chunks to you.

Mindy:
I want to point out that you are using a tax strategist. I love that so much for you because you are in a higher income bracket. You could just have a lot of money going to the government. And I always want to pay all the taxes that I have to, I never want to pay any taxes that I don’t have to. And there are these, they’re not even loopholes. They are strategies that you don’t know that you don’t know. So if you find yourself in a similar position, have a conversation with a tax strategist, whatever your tax strategist is costing you, they will almost always save you way more than that because they introduce you to these concepts. You’re like, I didn’t know that was a thing. I didn’t know that I could deduct this from my taxes. I didn’t know I could alter my income in this way.
And then all of a sudden all of these doors open up. So clearly I’m making a lot of that up. I am not a tax strategist, but if you find yourself with a lot of income, don’t jump over dollars to save pennies by not going to the tax strategist and having a conversation. I mean, you don’t have to do this all the time. You do this at the beginning of the year and they’re like, Hey, look at all these things you could potentially do, which ones work for your mentality, your goals, your strategies, your income, et cetera. And you can pick and choose from multiple. So yeah, if you don’t have a tax strategist, you need to find one like a CPA or I mean just Google tax strategist in your area. Ask your friends. Ask your rich friends.

Amirra:
Your rich friends. So I mean, that’s where we are now. We do have this influx of cash every month that’s not going to the loans, and we don’t necessarily have all of the deductions that we had before when we were paying off the loans. And so I think for us, we’re trying to be very strategic in our spending so that we don’t owe so much in taxes next year. Yeah, I think that’s a big thing. And also we’re going on a vacation next month.

Amanda:
Oh, there you go. So more vacations too.

Amirra:
Yes, for sure. Yeah, more vacation. Yeah,

Mazi:
This will be the first time that we actually have this much money coming in without necessarily a huge debt payment that we’re attacking. So we’re starting, we’re just in the beginning stages of living it right now.

Amirra:
It’s mostly just going towards retirement I think at this point.

Mazi:
Yes.

Amanda:
Well and hopefully a little living today, like you mentioned. So some vacation. Yeah, a little bit of balance. I was wondering earlier hearing mozzie if you thought you had overcorrected in life at all, and it sounds like maybe there were some blips there, but you guys are bringing really good balance to each other’s lives I think when it comes to all the money stuff. Even if the conversation on date one started a little in your face kind of situation, but it sounds like you guys brought really good balance. So then my question would be to you Amira, what role did your partnership with Mozzie play in your own success and what advice would you give to couples who might be avoiding some difficult money conversations?

Amirra:
That is such a good question. So I will say he was truly the catalyst for me getting my act together when it came to money. I stopped being so afraid to have those conversations and I did a complete flip. And now I do financial coaching for other OTs and other healthcare professionals because I’m so passionate about just increasing financial literacy and not making the same mistakes. That’s why I’m super, super open with my mistakes on my financial journey because I think that if I would’ve had someone like me in my life, maybe I wouldn’t have done some of those things to land in so much debt. And so I think that I really credit him with pulling me out of my little turtle shell and being like, okay, we can talk about money in a really healthy way. I think a lot of times you think of talking about money in a marriage is just fighting about money, but it can be really, really healthy to have those conversations.
And so we didn’t mention this, we eloped. So we got engaged and then we eloped, I don’t know, three weeks later, it was less than a month later, we decided we went to Sedona and we eloped under a rock and it was the best decision ever. But we knew going into marriage that because it was so quickly that it happened, we were like, Hey, money is one of the top things that people fight about and we don’t want to fight about money. And so we had just really, really open conversations. And so I think it’s helped overall to our communication because when you’re so open talking about one of the most uncomfortable topics, money, it makes communication in a marriage, I think so much easier. I can go to him with really anything and not feel that discomfort because we have tackled one of the most uncomfortable subjects in a marriage.
And so I think it has helped just our overall communication as husband and wife. And then I think my biggest piece of advice to couples would really just be to have those conversations. It is uncomfortable, but it’s also really uncomfortable to be fighting about money. And so you rather have those discussions and being able to just align with your financial goals and the dreams that you have for yourself to support the lifestyle that you’re envisioning for your family. So it’s almost like rip the bandaid and I think I get this mentality from him for sure with rip the bandaid off with things and yeah, just know the first few conversations. It might be a little uncomfy, but eventually you’ll get on the same page and also seek out outside support if you need it. Like I said, I was doing financial coaching and I still hired a financial coach because I wanted a different lens, a different perspective on our situation, and she really helped us to ask the right questions to each other like, Hey, Amira is okay with prolonging the student loans for a little bit more, maybe investing more. Like how do you feel about that, Ian? So she kind of helped guide that conversation too. So if you need to have an outside person come in, there are so many people within the financial coaching space and personal finance that specialize in talking to married couples and helping you to have those conversations, but they have to be had, they’re so important. And I think it makes, I know I’m not even, I think I know that it makes for a very, very healthy partnership.

Mindy:
You have now paid off all of your student loan debt. What does your current debt picture look like? Housing or anything else that you’ve got? Is it just the mortgage?

Mazi:
So the house I owned back in Houston where I turned into a rental, so that’s still the only debt we have. And that’s it. That’s it.

Mindy:
Wow. Okay, great. So from 500,005 years ago to a mortgage where I’m assuming the rent covers the mortgage,

Mazi:
The rent covers the mortgage. I think it was back in the day when $300,000 could get you a house. It’s a townhouse in the medical center in Houston, and I think there’s maybe like two 20, but the interest rate’s like 2.9%, something unheard of. And yeah, the renters have been renting consistently since I started school and have never left. So it’s been great.

Mindy:
Okay. So where is your money going specifically now, and let’s look at balances. What is your net worth and where is all that in your portfolio?

Mazi:
So the market has taken a turn in the last couple months. That’s why I was like, do you want to talk about this? Are you sure? So before we had some things implemented nationwide. We were seeing at a net worth of closer to around 700,000.

Mindy:
Wow, that’s awesome.

Mazi:
Yeah, so honestly, back when, like you said, when I was a young pup and one told me to put 10% of when I was working as an ICU nurse into I’ll never see it, I’ll never worry about it. I did exactly that. And when I started graduate school, I think it was like 200 or 300 just sitting in a 401k. And of course it grows over time. I’ve added more to it since I’ve started working. It just grew with the s and p. I didn’t do anything fancy, just put it in the s and p and just let it ride. So it’s grown up to about that. And I had a tax broker’s account I started dumping money into, and I still just invest in the s and p. So all that together collectively with the house was around 700, give or take, the downswing we’ve had.

Mindy:
And what is your timeline for retirement? Are you on the early retirement path or are you just amassing savings for the future?

Mazi:
Right, so that’s what the coach was that we got wanted to, my fire number was 10 million

Amirra:
Is you haven’t changed. It

Mazi:
Is 10 million and I wanted to obtain fire by the age of 52 is what we marched out. So we have to start aggressively pretty much the loan, the money that I was putting towards my student loans now be going towards investing in retirement.

Mindy:
You’re hoping to spend $33,000 a month in retirement?

Mazi:
Yes.

Mindy:
Okay. And what do you spend this money on? And I’m just asking, I know that nurse atheists, which is such a hard word to spend, it’s a hard word to say.

Mazi:
It’s a tongue tie. It’s a tongue tie. You can just say CRA.

Mindy:
Yeah, my uncle is one of those. So I’m familiar with the term, I just can’t say it, but where is 33,000 a month going, which is your, if $10 million is your fire number and you get to that, you can absolutely, per the 4% rule spend, the 33,000. I know that people listening are used to that number being a little smaller.

Mazi:
Well, I’m assuming with inflation, 10 million today is not going to be 10 million tomorrow. So I would imagine 33,000 a month would feel more closer to like 25,000. And based off what we’re spending now a month, we’re around about 20, 25,000 give or take. Given what we make and how much we spend on months housing probably won’t be a factor. Hopefully not a factor come that time. But we also are active. We like to travel, we like to do things. So I just to base it off of what I’m doing now. Now of course if we fall a little short, that number, it’s not the end of the world. It’s still a healthy amount, but I was kind of just shooting for the moon on that one and trying to replicate our current living situation.

Amirra:
A lot of it honestly goes towards travel. So if we think of it like a travel sinking fund that we contribute to each month and then we take maybe two trips, but we take big trips, like a pretty significant travel trip. So I would say a big chunk of that spending is going towards saving for travel because we also do things where we bring in our family and we don’t want to have to burden them with paying for a bunch of stuff, and so we’ll get just a massive Airbnb or something like that. So we do a lot of traveling, but we love to bring our family with us.

Mindy:
Okay. Can I be your family is my first question, but also how much are you spending right now? Do you track your spending at all? Do you know how much you’re spending right now?

Amirra:
Yes, so it’s a little complicated because we have the personal side and the business side. So personal side hovers around eight to nine K per month, and that’s everything from, honestly, we spend a lot on wellness. I’m not going to lie. We spend a lot on I self-care wellness and by we, I mean kind of mean me. Mozzie also is really into gym memberships and training and things like that. And so that’s a big chunk of it. Also, groceries, where we live, it’s really expensive for groceries and we’re the type of people we love steak, we love lamb, and that’s an area that we’ve tried to cut back in so many times, but Ozzie’s like I don’t want to go to the grocery store and not be able to get my steak if I want to have steak. And so we could be probably a little bit more cognizant, but just given his income, it’s something that we’re comfortable splurging on groceries to be able to get whatever snacks or food that we want to get and not have to worry too much about it. So I would say wellness, groceries.

Amanda:
Well, and it’s also you have two kids, so it’s like

Amirra:
I was going to say, and the kids. Oh yeah, those the kids. Yeah.

Mazi:
Wheel guys. Yeah.

Amirra:
Yeah. We do a lot of activities with the kids. We have our toddler and a mountain biking program right now here, so swim lessons, all these, it’s like the little things kind of add up. So on the personal side, yeah, I would say about eight to nine KA month. And then on the business side, what would you say?

Mazi:
It’s mainly just taxes.

Amirra:
It’s mainly, but you have to pay taxes every month,

Mazi:
So

Amirra:
That’s a big chunk.

Mazi:
Taxes eat a lot

Amirra:
And paying yourself.

Mazi:
I pay myself, which isn’t a ton, but taxes, paying myself, that’s about it. It used to be the student loans, but now

Mindy:
That’s

Mazi:
Gone.

Mindy:
Okay, so when you stop working, then your taxes go away. I’m assuming that your business income covers all of your business expenses, so I would even push that to the side. I did quick math. I rounded up for you to $10,000 a month, which is a PHI number of $3 million per the 4% rule, which is a very different number than 10 million. That’s going to be a lot longer timeline to amass, and I’m just wondering if there’s any way you can shorten that a little bit. I have reached financial independence. My husband and I did it seven years ago, eight years ago, maybe nine years ago. But then, oh, well one more year, we’ll just work one more year. I’m not sure if the numbers work. And then the market continued to go up and number our net worth continued to go up. He finally quit his job when we had two x our fine number, which was based on our spending at the time.
That spending has gone up a little bit because our fine number has actually increased quite a bit more just because we had such a great market. I have seen the last couple of months, just like you have Ozzy, I have not been a fan of the down market that keeps going down and goes, I am combating this by just not looking at it because I’m not pulling out of the market right now. So it’s an on paper loss, but I just don’t want to look at that paper. That loss is real hard to watch. So I just threw out some numbers at you where what you’re spending now is more of a $3 million PHI number.

Amirra:
It doesn’t take into account. I think the travel,

Mindy:
Have you listened to our episodes 606 where we featured the points guy talking about how he’s opening up credit cards to get these travel rewards so that he can then spend it that way. He gave us lots of tips on different cards to open up in different ways to travel without spending all the money that you’re traveling.

Amirra:
That was my goal last year was to get into travel hacking. I had a whole plan, then I found out I was pregnant again, and I was like, that plan has gone out the window and I just haven’t picked it back up. And so Mozzie has told me so many times, he’s like, you really have to out this whole travel hacking thing. I have friends who do it and are very successful. I think we played around with it. We went to Hawaii maybe a year ago in December, and I think we used our Amex cart to travel hack and get a room upgrade and free breakfast, some little things like that. But I have not gone all in just because I am overwhelmed by it. But I will definitely check out that episode. I think it’s good. I need to get back into my goal of figuring out travel hacking.

Mindy:
Yeah, 100% right there with you. I am super, super busy and I have done the most bare minimum travel hacking that I have ever been able to do.

Speaker 5:
Alright,

Mazi:
Question, Mindy. When you and your partner were planning for your fire, were you planning 20 years in advance in accounting for inflation or were you planning what I’m spending now? Like you said, we’re spending 10,000 a month now, but 20 years from now, how much is $10,000 worth?

Mindy:
So we didn’t do that kind of math. We read the Bill Benen article, the original 4% rule article that he published in 1996 or 1998, and we’re like, oh, okay, this makes sense because he lays it all. It’s a really long article, very in depth. If you don’t have a copy of it, I’m happy to send it to you. It’s kind of hard to find because it was only in print back in the 19 hundreds when they didn’t have the internet. But it’s a great article where, you know what? This makes sense based on a 30 year timeframe, when you are spending this much, you can have this much money and it’ll last you for 30 years. So we’re like, that’ll totally work. We’re totally going to do that. We didn’t think about inflation, we didn’t think about lifestyle creep. Our original 4% rule, you’re going to laugh at this, was based on spending $40,000 a year. Oh, we spend $40,000 a year at that time. We don’t anymore. We spend, you’re going to be camping. It sounds like you retired.

Mazi:
Well, it’s a tent only.

Mindy:
No mattress pad at the time. My house costs me $176,000. You can’t get that here anymore.

Mazi:
The way we’re going now, I mean even a vehicle these days is anywhere from 60 to $70,000. Now our average house is roughly around $500,000 now, and that’s right now, 20 years from now, I can only imagine what the average cost is for lifestyle, which is why, although 3 million would be sufficient for us now, 3 million in 20 years might be a little less.

Amanda:
We have to take one final ad break and we’ll be back with more from Amira and Mozzie,

Mindy:
Welcome back to the show. I just want to propose thinking about the number because you don’t want to continue working for 20 more years, then retire, then discover. Oh, inflation wasn’t as bad as I thought it was going to be. I really did only need three or 5 million. I worked too long and I didn’t incorporate all of this stuff into my life. Now, if you are more of a Ramit sat fan and you are continuing to enjoy your rich life while saving for retirement, that’s really different. But I’m going back to Mozzie who was obsessed with his money and nose to the grindstone and focusing and checking it four times a day. I hope you’re not checking it four times a day. Now,

Mazi:
I only log in once a week just to make sure it still says zero. Okay,

Mindy:
Once a week is great. But yeah, I want to make sure that you have a realistic number or you are continuing to think about it. Oh, now we’re at 3 million, I still feel like I need a little bit more. Or now I’m at 5 million. You know what? Aren’t increasing our spending so much. Maybe it is a good time to rethink what I’m doing. Or you know what? You hit 3 million and you’re like, I really like my job. I’m going to keep working one day a week or one week a month, or however you can do it. Once you have a lot of experience and there’s still a shortage of healthcare workers, once you have this experience, you can kind of dictate your own schedule or more so than fresh out of college person. So more I just want to plant a seed like, hey, maybe 10 million doesn’t have to be the number. Revisit it once a year or once a quarter, not four

Amanda:
Times a day.

Amirra:
That’s good.

Amanda:
I think that’s good. We were on an episode together, Mindy, where you said that that was one of your, I don’t know if financial regret is the term that you used, but I wish we had checked in on it more because we worked far longer than we needed to, and it was just unnecessary and we missed out on some more leisure time, if you will. So I think that’s good advice. That being said, to kind of piggyback off of that, so obviously the road to 10 million is probably a little ways away here. So what are you going to do to stay on track for that goal? And have you considered potentially reducing that number and then maybe just working on the business, not working full-time. Have you explored or thought about any other avenues or is it going to be kind of like head down, let’s get to 10 million. What is that going to look like?

Mazi:
Well, I don’t think it’ll be nearly as aggressive as it was when we were paying off the student loans. That was much more head down. Nothing else matters other than this. I think on the road to 10 million, it’s definitely more of the journey. And like I said, 10 million was more of a, it’s a soft number that we threw out there. Just I think spending roughly around 40,000 a month is like, we’re good. We’re comfortable. No matter what the circumstances have, we should be a okay how we’re going to get there. That’s what our financial coach Shung laid out for us. It’s still a heavy investing amount in a tax account, pretty much throwing it into the s and p expecting closer to seven to 8% returns. And what it looked like is roughly about 15 to $20,000 a month that we would be investing. And that should roughly get us there by the age of 52.

Amanda:
And so not knowing how old you are now, so how many years away is that?

Mazi:
34 now.

Amanda:
Okay. 34 now. Because I’m already thinking the kids will grow up at some point those expenses will go away.

Amirra:
We also are thinking about our parents as they get older and being in a position to comfortably take care of them, which is a conversation we don’t love to have, but it’s a conversation we have to have. And so I think too, Ozzy had kind of built in a little bit of a buffer to be able, whatever that ends up looking like for our parents. But knowing that although we have siblings, it likely will be us as the ones who are making those plans for our parents. So I think adding that into why that number. Maybe he wanted to go larger,

Amanda:
So this is the whole family retirement fund.

Amirra:
He didn’t really mention that, but it’s not just us. It wouldn’t just be for taking care of us. It’s our kids, our parents. Yeah,

Mindy:
That makes more sense. Yeah, I appreciate the context in that. And that makes that number more understandable. More reasonable because it isn’t just you guys. So that’s cultural thing. I’m not planning to support my parents in their age, but they also have taken care of it themselves.

Amirra:
No, we’re first generation investors, I feel like. I think

Mazi:
Just financial mindset.

Amirra:
Yeah,

Mazi:
Both our parents. Retirement wasn’t a thing that they really thought about. Finances wasn’t a really thing that they planned for. All the above it. It was more of just work, get paid, pay your bills, repeat. Not a, oh, I’m going to be 65. What am I going to live off of? None of that. Luckily, my mom house is paid off. Other than that, she doesn’t have much of a retirement.

Amirra:
We just want to be able to comfortably

Mazi:
Social security is it, take care of it. Social security will be there. And that’s the extent of their retirement planning.

Mindy:
That is a lot more understandable with this $10 million number, 20 years, it sounds like you’re definitely adding stuff back into your life now that you’re not paying down the debt anymore. You’re adding in the enjoyment and the fun and the travel everywhere. So yeah. I’ve got just a little bit of homework for you, Amira, to go and listen to episode 6 0 6. So you can start learning about travel hacking without having to do all the work a lot. I have done none of the work. I opened up two credit cards. That’s my travel hacking. It’s your travel hacking. Perfect.

Amanda:
Learn more from Mindy on travel hacking to,

Mazi:
I’m curious, what is the average number of people are putting for their fire, or what is a more reasonable number that people kind of shoot towards?

Mindy:
$1 million was the number for the longest time. And then people are like, I would really rather have a more robust retirement. So I hear 3 million, I hear and 3 million. You’re spending $10,000 a month, $120,000 a year. I hear 5 million kind of on the outside. I’ve heard people say 10 and 20 million counting only for themselves. And the way they say it a lot of time just sounds like I just threw a number out there. Sure, I’d love to have $10 million. If anybody wants to write a check, that’s J-E-N-S-E-N. Send me $10 million. I’m totally cool with that. I’ll even pay all the taxes. I also see people working far longer than they had to because they had this number in mind that either didn’t come from doing all of the math or they were like, well, I want to have this big lavish lifestyle in the future.
Well, you could have a lavish lifestyle now. Oh no, I don’t spend money now. And I know from personal experience, if you don’t spend money now, you’re not going to spend money later. I spend a little bit more than I used to, but I don’t spend a lot because of the way I was brought up. We didn’t have any money. My parents are children of the depression. My dad’s one of seven, my mom’s one of eight. There was never enough money for anybody, so they never spent money. And they took that to heart and they’re like, well, now that we have money, we can’t spend it. And I am following along in their footsteps. So it’s difficult. It doesn’t sound, and I don’t mean this in a bad way, but it doesn’t sound like you are having a hard time spending the money. So you will be able to enjoy now and in the future.

Amirra:
That makes sense. And there’s all kinds of fires now. There’s lean, fire, fat barista fires, like a new one. I heard there’s, I’ve not heard of Barista Fire. Bara Fire. There’s all these different ones that you can,

Mindy:
Yeah, there’s all different flavors. You can choose your own adventure. It’s awesome. I just want to make sure that you are working long enough, not too long. Because one more year syndrome is absolutely a incurable syndrome here in the fire community.

Mazi:
Yeah, I mean, we’re definitely get a sense of how much is enough, even when it just comes to income and hours of working. We’re kind of hitting that road, that crossroad of like, all right, we’re not in debt anymore, so we don’t have to stay making or doing

Speaker 5:
What

Mazi:
You’re doing to claw out of debt. But I also have this sick syndrome of wanting to make more than that. Well, yeah, I’m not in debt, but I’m also now at zero. Essentially. I finally clawed out of the pit and now I want to see what it’s like, oh, maybe making this sort of money and getting to do more beneficial things or enjoying it a little bit more.

Amirra:
Whereas I’m like, we can take a pay cut, move back closer to family, settle down, stop this whole travel thing. So think that’s definitely where we are now, is just determining what direction we want to go and do we want to stay at this income and being able to aggressively invest in all these different things, or can we slow down a little bit and make different lifestyle

Mazi:
Changes? That’s currently the crossroad we’re at right now.

Mindy:
Okay. Well, I think let’s say it’ll come in time as you’re now paying attention more to where the income is going, how much extra savings you have. Once you have hit your number and stopped retiring, you’re also not going to be saving anymore. So that’s income that you don’t need to account for. So I just think there’s a lot of moving parts and you’re conscious of it, and that’s the best of all of this, is that you’re thinking about it. Okay. Amira and Mozzie, this was such a fun conversation. I’m so thankful for your time. Where can people find you online?

Amirra:
Yes. So Ozzie’s not online, so if you want to find something, it’ll be with me. So I have a podcast called The Money Matters in Occupational Therapy Podcasts. And so that’s a really fun place where I bring on guests and we have all the conversations about money and finance that we should have had in school, but we never did. And so that’s a really fun podcast to listen to if you want to check that out. And then on Instagram, I’m at Marvelous Miracles with two Rs dot ot. I’m sure everything will be in the show notes, but that’s where I share more about just finances and life as a stay at home mom, being an occupational therapist, all that. And then we have a really exciting new project coming up that we can’t share too much about, but just know it’s a platform that we’re building to help connect healthcare professionals with the financial support and literacy and resources that they need. So we’re super excited about that, where we’ve just hired all the business consultants, branding coaches, we’re going through the trademark process, all that fun stuff. But it’s really going to be centered around being able to just have specifically healthcare professionals have that support that we don’t really get in school. And so be on the lookout for that. And I’m sure I’ll mention it in my podcast and on my Instagram page as well.

Mindy:
I was just going to say, can I go to Marvelous Miracles with two Rs and find out information about that when it’s been announced?

Amirra:
Yes. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. And we’re planning to be at FinCon this year to be able to chat more about that. So

Mindy:
I’ll meet you in real life. Oh my gosh. Yay. Okay, wonderful. Well, Amira and Mozy, thank you so much for your time today. I really appreciate it. And we will talk to you soon.

Amirra:
Thank you so much for having us, Mindy and Amanda.

Mindy:
Alright, that was, and Mozy, and I loved their story, Amanda. I loved how he wasn’t afraid to ask in an open not accusatory way about her student loan debt on their first date. I mean, that’s quite the bold move there, but it clearly worked out because it set the tone for their entire relationship. We are going to be conscious about our money. The answer that she gave also set the tone, oh, well here it is. Not being defensive, not being offended that he asked. It was just a get to know you question and she gave him a matter of fact answer. And I think there’s a lot more great money tips from people just when you have this mindset of, I’m going to ask a question openly and I’m going to answer the question honestly, as opposed to getting all up in your feelings about it. What did you think of the show, Amanda?

Amanda:
I totally agree. It was a bold move to ask that question on date one for sure, but I also felt like it was so refreshing to hear how their relationship had kind of evolved over time, having two completely different spending, saving and investing styles. He was kind of like nose to the ground right from day one. Whereas she’s more like, oh, this is Monopoly money. Let’s, I’ll worry about this later. But then it seems like they’ve really just kind of became their best selves coming together and balancing each other out. And now that they were able to pay off what, half a million dollars worth of student loan debt build their family travel, I think that they are just a really beautiful picture of what can be when you start those money conversations really, really early because money is the thing that fuels all the other things in

Mindy:
Life. Absolutely start those money conversations early, especially because if you’re listening to this show, money, conversations, money topics, finance in general is important to you. So don’t partner up with somebody that it isn’t important to. Or if you are already partnered up, start having these conversations so you can get on the same page. Alright, Amanda, should we get out of here? Let’s do it. That wraps up this episode of the BiggerPockets Money podcast. She is the Amanda Wolf, she Wolf of Wall Street. I am Mindy Jensen saying, got to go Buffalo.

 

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Existing home sales declined in March, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), as affordability challenges continued to weigh on the market. For the first time, the median home price surpassed $400,000 for the month of March, underscoring the ongoing pressure on prospective buyers. While mortgage rates have eased slightly, persistent economic uncertainty may continue to limit buyer activity in the near term.

While existing home inventory improves and the Fed continues lowering rates, the market faces headwinds as mortgage rates are expected to stay above 6% for longer due to an anticipated slower easing pace in 2025. These prolonged rates may continue to discourage homeowners from trading existing mortgages for new ones with higher rates, keeping supply tight and prices elevated. As such, sales are likely to remain limited in the coming months due to elevated mortgage rates and home prices.

Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, declined 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million in March. On a year-over-year basis, sales were 2.4% lower than a year ago.

The share of first-time buyers rose to 32% in March, up from 31% in February and unchanged from March 2024.

The existing home inventory level was 1.33 million units in March, up 8.1% from February and 19.8% from a year ago. At the current sales rate, March unsold inventory sits at a 4.0-months’ supply, up from 3.5 months in February and 3.2 months in March 2024. This inventory level remains low compared to balanced market conditions (4.5 to 6 months’ supply) and illustrates the long-run need for more home construction.

Homes stayed on the market for an average of 36 days in March, down from 42 days in February but up from 33 days in March 2024.

The March all-cash sales share was 26% of transactions, down from 32% in February and 28% a year ago.

The March median sales price of all existing homes was $403,700, up 2.7% from last year. This marked the 21st consecutive month of year-over-year increases. The median condominium/co-op price in March was up 1.5% from a year ago at $363,000. This rate of price growth will slow as inventory increases.

In March, existing home sales declined across all four major U.S. regions. The West experienced the steepest drop, with sales falling 9.4%, followed by the South (-5.7%), the Midwest (-5.0%), and the Northeast (-2.0%). On a year-over-year basis, sales rose slightly in the West by 1.3%, declined in the South and Midwest by 4.2% and 3.1% respectively, and remained unchanged in the Northeast.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI fell from 70.6 to an all-time low of 67.3 in February. This decline suggests elevated home prices and higher mortgage rates continue to constrain affordability. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales were 9.9% lower than a year ago, per National Association of Realtors data.

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With busy jobs and two elementary school kids, Kendra Oxholm and her husband needed a kitchen that could keep up with their hectic lifestyle. Their existing kitchen didn’t come close. It sat closed off behind a wall separating it from the dining room. The space felt cramped. The cabinets lacked storage. And the materials — aging basic white cabinets, laminate countertops, tile flooring and blue wallpaper — felt dated and uninspiring. “I love to cook and knew this kitchen wouldn’t work for me,” Oxholm says.

Wanting more openness, efficiency, color and contemporary materials, the couple hired designer Sean Lewis for help. Lewis got to work knocking down the wall to open the kitchen to the dining room. He added a peninsula with seating that improves connection between the two spaces. Closing off an exterior door to the driveway freed up room to add more cabinetry and improve storage. Gray paint for the cabinets with brass hardware and other brass details creates an elegant style. A graphic black-and-white porcelain tile floor energizes the new kitchen, while a black-painted open pantry brings a dramatic touch.



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Stagflation: the combination of two of the worst economic conditions—inflation and slow/no growth. With stagflation, prices rise, asset growth shrinks, unemployment increases, consumer confidence drops, and economic pain spreads. This is the first time in almost fifty years that the US has had to deal with what is an extremely rare economic scare. And with the Fed already under immense pressure to lower rates, is the US economy out of escape routes?

Today, we’re talking about stagflation—a trend that has worried major economists for months. Economic “warning signs” are already flashing as recession and inflation risks grow. But if we get hit with stagflation, how bad will it be, how long will it last, and how will it affect real estate? I’m explaining it all today.

We’ll walk through what happened during the 1970s stagflation crisis, how home and rent prices were affected, what’s causing today’s stagflation risk, and whether the Fed has any power left to mitigate the worst consequences of it. This could affect every American and anyone investing in American real estate, but have my investing plans changed? I’ll tell you what I’m doing next.

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Listen to the Podcast Here

Read the Transcript Here

Dave:
The economy could be facing a one two punch of slowing growth and higher inflation in the coming months. And this particular dynamic is known as stagflation and it can put an economy into a really difficult spot. Today on the market, we’re diving into this important topic of stagflation, what it is, why there are new concerns about it, key warning signs to watch for, and what to do if it arrives. Hey everyone, it’s Dave head of Real Estate Investing at BiggerPockets. In addition to that job, I am also a housing market analyst. I’m an investor and a somewhat obsessive watcher of everything having to do with the economy. And as I’ve been doing that in recent weeks, I’ve seen a new trend develop. And this trend is really coming from people on both sides of the aisle and for many different backgrounds. And what I’m seeing is people talking about the prospects and risks of something called stagflation this term.
You may have heard it before, it’s been thrown around here and there, but fears of stagflation currently are on the rise. And although to be clear, we do not yet have evidence of stagflation. There are, in my opinion, enough warning signs going off that we should all be talking about this. Stagflation is one of those things that can be really, really detrimental to economy. It could set it back for years. And so if stagflation does actually arise, it’s going to impact the housing market and the day-to-day lives of almost all Americans. So I really encourage you all to pay a close attention here to this episode and this important issue. That said, let’s start off with the simple stuff. What is stagflation? Stagflation is the unfortunate combination of two negative economic conditions at the same time. High inflation and recession or slow growth, and you probably all know this, but either of those things, one of them on their own is bad enough, right?
No one wants inflation, no one wants slow economic growth. But those things sort of do happen in the normal course of business and economic cycles. But the combination of both things, both inflation and slow economic growth at the same time is particularly harmful to an economy in a couple of ways that may not be obvious, but in ways that we are about to discuss. So anyway, that is the definition, but let’s talk about why this actually matters. Typically in an economy, inflation and unemployment, which is one of the key markers of economic growth, are inversely correlated. That’s just a fancy term. That means that they move in opposite direction. So when inflation goes up, usually unemployment goes down. When inflation goes down, usually unemployment goes up. That is an inverse correlation. So normally, as part of the normal business and economic cycles that economies go through, there are periods where they have one of these things either high unemployment or high inflation from time to time.
But rarely do they have both. And this pattern that typically happens is called the Phillips Curve. If you want to do some of your own economic research after you listen to the episode or you want to be super uncool at your next party you go to, you can go check this out. But it is a real thing. It’s called the Phillips Curve, and it is not a rule. It does not always happen, but it describes a pattern that is very commonly, and this commonly seen relationship makes logical sense, at least to me. And it makes sense that it drives a lot of the business cycles of expansions, peaks, recessions, and troughs that we are all used to seeing. It goes a little bit like this when the economy is expanding, normal times things are growing, unemployment tends to go down, businesses are booming, they’re hiring more, so unemployment goes down.
Then when more people are working, wages start to go up because there is less labor available and businesses need to pay people more to retain them at their jobs. And this drives consumer demand. When people are earning more money, they tend to spend more money, and that ultimately leads eventually to higher inflation because when there’s more money flowing around the economy, there is more demand for the same amount of goods. That is one of several common ways that inflation starts, and this is a very common one. So in a nutshell, lower unemployment tends to lead to higher consumer demand, which can lead to higher inflation. Eventually in this cycle what happens is inflation gets bad and the Federal Reserve or the central bank of whatever government you’re talking about raises interest rates. This is one of the tools that they have to fight inflation, but unfortunately, the offshoot of fighting inflation is it pushes up unemployment.
As businesses scale back, people lose their jobs. That brings down demand and helps inflation get back under control. Then the Federal Reserve basically turns that knob back in the other direction. They lower interest rates to stimulate job growth and the cycle starts all over again. And this isn’t the most fun cycle. I wish that the economy could just grow forever without inflation or recessions, but this is just a common pattern observed in many or really all advanced capitalist economies. And frankly, up until the 1970s, the US basically worked in the cycle. This was pretty reliably how things worked. But then in the seventies, for the first time, at least that I have data for, it might’ve happened way back in the day before, we had good record keeping. Between 1973 and 1975, the US economy posted six consecutive of declining GDP. So there’s different definitions of recessions to me that is very clearly a recession.
And at the same time, during that long year and a half long recession, which is a long one, inflation tripled. So that was a really big dramatic period of stagflation. Exactly what we’re talking about. And remember, this is different from that cycle that I was just talking about. Normally you would see either these GDP declines or inflation, not at the same time. It usually takes some unusual set of geopolitical or economic circumstances for stagflation to arise. And I will spare you all the full economics lecture here, but a lot of things were happening in the 1970s that contributed to this. Some of them were oil shocks. There was loose monetary policy that arguably shouldn’t have existed, and that worsened inflation. We saw a lot of changes to fiscal policy like Nixon’s wage price controls. We went off the gold standard. The Vietnam spending was getting really dramatic.
And so all these unusual things combined to create this stagflationary environment, and I’m sure you probably all intuitively know this by now by the very fact that we’re talking about it, but this is a really bad situation because inflation eats away at your spending power as a consumer while slowing growth and rising unemployment decreases household incomes, it reduces business incomes and it just causes general economic pain. So the long and short of it is stagflation is bad for normal people and businesses alike. The big challenge here is not that it’s just bad, it’s that it’s hard to fix. There really aren’t many great ways to fix stagflation. Normally when something goes wrong in the economy, we turn to the Federal Reserve as one of several levers that we can pull to manage economic cycles. Congress controls fiscal policy while the Federal Reserve controls monetary policy, and they both tend to work together to try and sort out these economic issues.
The Fed is particularly relied on here because they’re the ones, their task, their job from Congress is to balance the seesaw of rising unemployment and rising inflation. Remember I said that works in a cycle. When unemployment goes up, inflation tends to go down. When unemployment goes down, inflation tends to go up. And so there’s this sort of natural balancing act that is required. And in the United States, the Federal Reserve is tasked with creating that balance. But stagflation in particular, you’re probably seeing, I think the challenge here is that stagflation puts the Federal Reserve in a really tough spot and it eliminates one of their tools, one of their only tools to try and fix the economy. Normally when inflation gets high, they raise interest because that will reduce overall demand, and yes, it will damage employment rates, but it will get inflation under control. But with stagflation, they may not want to do that.
They may not want to raise rates because they don’t want to make unemployment even worse or slow economic growth even further, which can happen with higher rates. Conversely, when unemployment is high, the Fed usually lowers rates to spur job growth, but they may not want to do that either for fears of increasing inflation even beyond where it is. So not only is stagflation sort of outside the normal economic cycle, it takes away one of our only tools for dealing with economic challenges. Just candidly speaking, the Fed, it doesn’t have that many tools for managing the economy in a lot of ways. It’s just this blunt instrument and stagflation makes it hard for them to use the few effective tools that they do have. And this issue, by the way, if you’ve been paying attention to what’s been going on in the news, this issue about putting the Fed in a tough spot is greatly contributing to the very public showdown that is going on between President Trump and the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. We’ll get into that a little more later, but you may have seen Powell has publicly been saying that he thinks the Fed is getting boxed in right now, and he has fears of a Stagflationary environment and how that might limit his and the Fed’s ability to positively impact the economy. Alright, so that is our economics lesson and our history lesson for today. Let’s turn now to current day events and why the prospect of stagflation is rising right now. We’re going to get into that right after this quick break.
Welcome back to On the Market. Today we’re talking about stagflation and we’re going to turn the conversation now to current market conditions and why some prominent economists are raising the alarm about stagflationary risks. Remember we said stagflation is somewhat unusual, so it takes some non-normal economic conditions to create. And if you’re asking yourself what could be creating them today, you can probably guess it’s tariffs. And to be clear, no one knows what’s going to happen with tariffs and where they’re going to wind up. As of right now, we have 10% baseline tariffs, some huge tariffs on China. We have tariffs on steel and aluminum, but we don’t know exactly what’s going to happen from here with many of the countries that are negotiating trade deals with Trump, with automobiles. We don’t know exactly what’s going to happen and just remember that everything can change. But my best guess, at least as of now, because as investors we sort of need to make hypotheses and plan ahead, otherwise we’ll just be stuck doing nothing.
My best guess is that at least some level of tariffs will stay in place. Trump has been very clear that he believes in tariffs and he believes that any short-term economic pain that is endured by the implementation of his tariff regimen will be worth it in the long run. And I am going to take him at his word there and assume that at least some level of tariffs are going to stay in place even if they get lessened a little bit from that initial rollout. And the historical record basically shows that tariffs often lead to higher inflation and lower growth. Those, as you probably remember, are the exact two ingredients that get us to stagflation and even Trump, remember, even Trump and his team have acknowledged there could be this short-term economic pain as part of his plan to reconfigure global trade. And from the research I’ve done that economic pain will probably come in the form of slower growth and higher inflation, at least in the short run.
We don’t know if that will last forever, but at least in the short run, that’s what the data shows us. Now, there is only some limited data from the United States on tariffs since we haven’t had them in a very long time. But the best comparison we have is something called the Smoot Holly Tariffs. Those were enacted in 1930, and so this is a super long time ago. It’s a super different economy that looked very different than it was today. So you can’t take all that many conclusions from it, but it’s generally important to know that a very strong consensus among economists is that the tariffs really hurt. GDP hurt economic growth, unemployment shot up from lower export jobs and banking crises got worse due to a lot of trade instability. In addition to that, I was looking for more data to try and understand what happens after tariffs.
I looked at this one study, it’s called a meta-analysis. You may have heard of these things where they basically look at tons of different studies, try and draw big conclusions, and this one in particular looked at 151 countries from 1963 to 2014 that implemented tariffs and generally showed that they led to decreased output, basically lower GDP growth, lower economic growth. But it wasn’t some huge amount. It was a modest decline in GDP that they were able to measure. So if the tariffs stay, I think at least in the short term, medium term, I really can’t guess what’s going to happen in the long term, but at least in the short term, medium term, we’re likely to see lower growth. And just frankly, I don’t think tariffs are the only thing that could lead to slower growth. I think recession risk was high even at the end of last year.
We’re seeing things like lower consumer confidence. We’re seeing business spending start to decline. We’re seeing a lot of red flags start to signal. So all these things combined make me think that the prospect of a recession are relatively high. Now, let’s look at the other side, which is inflation. The logic here is that because of tariffs, US companies are going to be paying higher taxes. That’s what tariffs are, right? When US companies import goods from China or from any country that has a tariff on it, that company that’s importing the goods actually pays the tariff. That’s essentially just another form of taxes. And you got to believe that at least some, if not all of those costs are going to be passed on to consumers. And if that is what happens, then inflation is going to go up. That means consumer prices are going up.
That’s basically the definition of inflation, the consensus forecasts that I’ve seen. And when I say consensus forecast, it means I try and look at data from all sides of the aisle, from all kinds of different organizations, public organizations, private organizations. I look at all of them and I try and form a consensus of generally where people think things are going to go. And there is a pretty strong signal here that almost everyone, every study that I’ve looked at thinks inflation is going to go up, but it’s not that crazy. So Goldman Sachs, for example, predicted at the beginning of the year they were saying inflation would be about 2.1% this year. So essentially getting down to the fed’s target, they’ve revised that now and think it’s going to be 3%. So going up a little bit, Deloitte has gone from two to 2.8%. Fannie Mae has gone from 2.5 to 2.8%.
So generally, almost every study I saw, I think literally every study I saw, inflation expectations have gone up. But I haven’t seen a single forecast that thinks we’re going to see inflation in that 2021 or 2022 level or anything like that. It’s not saying we’re going to get to 5%. I haven’t seen that. I don’t think seven 9%, which is what we peaked at in 2021. So keep this all in perspective, but this combination of likelihood of recession and likelihood of inflation, both of them going up, is why stagflation is in the news right now. Tariffs have historically driven up inflation and they hurt growth. That doesn’t mean this is definitely going to happen. I want to make that clear. We need more time to get that data, but there is a logical reason why people are talking about stagflation, and I personally think it’s important to talk about as evidenced by the fact that you’re listening to this podcast right now, and I am talking about it now, if you want to try to quantify the risk of stagflation, which I do because I’m an analyst and I can’t help myself, most forecasters still think that stagflation is not the most probable outcome, at least in the next year.
Comerica projects a 35 to 40% chance of stagflation, assuming partial tariff, rollbacks, and fed rate cuts. So again, they’re saying those risks are less than 50%, assuming some partial tariff rollback and fed rate cuts, both of which are uncertain. And so we’ll see that happens. The University of Michigan model shows just a 25 to 30% probability while UBS raised their stagflation risk up to 20%, but they warn of basically unquote what they call a mini stagflation, not something that’s as dramatic as the 1970s. And in fact, I haven’t seen anything that suggests that stagflation could, if it does occur at all, could get to that 1970s level. Actually, what was kind of interesting to me was the most pessimistic group seems to be coming from Wall Street, actually, according to business insiders, 71% of fund managers expect global stagflation within 12 months, which is much more pessimistic than everything else that I’ve seen.
But if I had to sort of summarize what I’ve learned from some pretty extensive research into what experts think are going to happen here, it’s that stagflation risk is high. It’s probably the highest it’s been since the 1980s, but most still think that we’ll avoid those risks, right? That combination of things that I just said, although it may seem contradictory, both things can happen, right? We may have gone up from a 5% risk of stagflation to a 40% risk of stagflation, but since it’s 40%, it’s still not the most likely outcome that’s going to happen. And the other consensus I think I gained here is that even if it does happen, I again haven’t seen anything that suggests this big protracted 1970s style stagflation situation is likely it’s more likely to be short-term than what happened in the past. But again, I want to caveat that most of these assumptions are based on somewhat of the status quo.
And so if the Federal Reserve doesn’t cut interest rates, if Trump actually goes through with firing Jerome Powell, if he, instead of striking more deals with trade partners to lower tariffs, increases tariffs in the future, I don’t know if those things are going to happen, but if any of those things happen, at least to me, the risk of stagflation is going to go up a lot and may actually become the more probable outcome. But I think we have to wait and see if any of those things actually materialize over the next couple of months before updating what I think might happen next. But so far, we’ve mostly been talking about stagflation. In theory, we should be also talking about what this means for real estate and for real estate investors. And I’ll give you my take right after this quick break.
Welcome back to On the Market. We’re here talking about stagflationary risks in the economy, and I want to just share some thoughts about what this all could mean for real estate investors if stagflation occurs. And again, that is a big if right now. I’m not saying that’s going to happen. I just am here trying to educate everyone that there are risks that this can happen, what it is and how it could play out. So you’re prepared stagflation for everyone what it means. It means that it’s rough for almost everyone in terms of day-to-day living. As I said before, inflation takes away spending power while higher unemployment and slower growth bring down total economic output. It basically just squeezes consumers from both sides. And it’s not good. Hopefully it doesn’t happen, but if it does, hopefully it will be short-lived. Now, in terms of just going beyond just ordinary Americans, what does this mean for real estate investors?
I did a bit of research into what happened to real estate and real estate investors in the 1970s during the last period of stagflation, and it’s pretty interesting. The general trend is that prices kept up with inflation in nominal terms. Now, remember we’ve talked about this before, but nominal means not inflation adjusted terms. So prices on paper kept up, which is good, but in inflation adjusted, which is also called real terms. So in real terms, it was uneven and there were often periods, extended periods of declines for housing prices as compared to inflation. And as investors, I think it’s kind of both good and bad. So during stagflation, a lot of assets performed badly. So in some ways you’re kind of looking for what performs the best out of a bad situation and seeing that real estate prices often keep pace with inflation means real estate served as a good hedge in a really challenging time.
And we’ve talked about this before on the show, that real estate tends to be a very good hedge, and that’s good news because even if things are bad, generally real estate can help you get through it. But on the bad side, we’ve gotten used to in the real estate market, seeing real positive returns, again, inflation adjusted positive returns. And during stagflationary periods, I think there’s a very high chance that that declines, which is obviously never an ideal situation and can impact your returns as an investor. So that’s mostly what happened just with housing prices. Again, that doesn’t have anything to say about what happens when you do value add or you do owner occupied strategies. That’s just looking at housing prices. The next thing that I looked at is rents, and it was actually much of the same thing. Rents grew a lot nominally, again, not inflation adjusted, meaning that they kept pace close to inflation, but real rent growth when adjusted for inflation was modest at best, and I wish I could tell you more than that, but rent data before the two thousands honestly is pretty scattered.
It’s not great and consistent, so it’s hard to get a super clear picture, and I don’t want to form conclusions that I don’t feel confident about, but this idea that rents grew a lot nominally, but real rent growth was modest, is kind of the best that I could come up with, but I feel pretty confident that is directionally what happened. All this to say is that stagflation didn’t prove to be some disaster for the housing market or for rental property owners in the 1970s. The returns were probably not as great as they were during other periods in the housing market for real estate investors. But real estate actually showed to be a good hedge against inflation and stagflationary pressures. And although there are many ways to measure it, it probably, at least according to my research, outperformed equities, the stock market as an asset class during that difficult time in the economy.
If stagflation comes again, we don’t know if real estate will behave in the same way, but understanding these historical trends does help. Some things that I was just thinking about that could make this potentially new stagflationary period different is just how housing prices, how unaffordable they have gotten relative to incomes. And the same thing with rent. We are in a period with just low affordability for housing prices and for rents. And since stagflation could make that worse, that could shift how the economy, how consumers, how the housing market reacts if stagflation does rear its ugly head. Now, all this to say, personally, I don’t think that this risk as of right now is going to change my strategy very much. I have been saying all year that I’m going to keep investing and I’m going to do that, but I’m going to do so very cautiously.
I am looking for really great standout long-term assets, things that I think are going to stand the test of time. I am not looking for anything that relies on short-term price gains, that relies on short-term rent growth. I’m not going to stretch myself or reach for any thin or risky deals because it’s just not worth it to me, given the uncertainty in the economy right now. I’m instead going to remain patient and opportunistic, and I think that deals will come along, this type of uncertainty. It does raise risk, absolutely do not get me wrong, but typically the way these things work is when there is more risk, there is more opportunity. And for investors who are willing to be patient and to really focus on finding those great long-term assets that will perform over several years, not over the next six to 12 months, you might be able to really set yourself up with some great assets to add to your portfolio.
So that’s my take. Just as a recap, I see why stagflation concerns are rising and I am concerned myself. I will be keeping a close eye on the data trends, and we’ll obviously keep you all posted too, but as of right now, I think it’s too early to say if stagflation will actually occur, and if so, how bad it might get for now. Instead, I encourage everyone to first and foremost stay informed. That is the most important thing you can do in these environment is to keep an eye on key economic data to learn about things like stagflation and what contributes to them. Secondly, I will encourage you to stay patient during this uncertainty and only go for strong obvious deals. And the third thing is just to continue to think long-term. Real estate has always been a long-term game, and right now there is a lot of short-term uncertainty, but investing for the long-term, at least to me, always makes sense. Thank you all so much for listening to this episode of On The Market. I’ll see you next time.

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In This Episode We Cover

  • Stagflation explained and why it’s becoming a greater risk in 2025
  • Why the Fed may be out of options to fight stagflation and what’s causing it
  • Reviewing the 1970s stagflation crisis and what happened to real estate prices then
  • Inflation forecasts for 2025 and how much more prices could rise
  • My current investing plan and how I’m looking at real estate if stagflation strikes
  • And So Much More!

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